Illuminating the Ground Illuminating the Ground - - The Mood in The Mood in Siaya Siaya County ahead of Elections 2013. County ahead of Elections 2013. By Awuor Ponge By Awuor Ponge Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and Institute of Education ( Institute of Education ( IoE IoE ), University of London ), University of London 30 December 2012 30 December 2012
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PONGE - Illuminating the Ground - The Mood in Siaya County
What needs to be done is that the County is racing against time to choose credible leaders. There is URGENT need for social vetting of candidates; scrutinising manifestos of candidates; addressing issues rather than personalities; voting for policies rather than party euphoria; not allowing oneself to be bought to vote in a candidate; preaching peaceful coexistence beyond the election date; ensuring free and fair nomination exercise in all the competing parties; being tolerant of divergent opinion and allowing opposing candidates to campaign freely; and last but not least, coming out in large numbers to VOTE on election day.
Former greater Ugenya Constituency has the highest registered voters at 74, 954 but it has since been split into two. Alego-Usonga is the single Constituency with the highest voter registration at 71, 628. Second in voter registration is Bondo with 59, 617; while third is Gem with 55, 942.
The Front-runner for the Senatorial seat is Hon. James Aggrey Orengo ‘Nyatieng’, after Hon. Oburu Odinga withdrew from the race to join the Gubernatorial race. The Front runner in the Gubernatorial race is William Oduol Denge from Alego-Usonga. Oduol enjoys the support of the populous Alego-Usonga, Gem, Ugenya and Ugunja Constituencies. He is facing competition from Dr. Oburu Odinga. However, the mood on the ground is anti-Oburu as it is perceived he is being imposed on the people. Another serious challenger is Malik Abong’o Obama (elder brother to US President, Barrack Obama) as an Independent Candidate.
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Illuminating the Ground Illuminating the Ground -- The Mood in The Mood in
SiayaSiaya County ahead of Elections 2013.County ahead of Elections 2013.
By Awuor PongeBy Awuor Ponge
Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); andInstitute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and
Institute of Education (Institute of Education (IoEIoE), University of London), University of London
30 December 201230 December 2012
30 December 201230 December 2012 Awuor Ponge BriefsAwuor Ponge Briefs 22
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• County Voter Statistics
• Comparative Registration Figures
• Comparative Briefs
• Senatorial Race
• Gubernatorial Race
• Constituency Statistics and Parliamentary Race
• What needs to be done
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Comparative BriefsComparative Briefs
• Former greater Ugenya Constituency has the highest registered voters at 74, 954 but it has since been split into two.
• Alego-Usonga is the single Constituency with the highest voter registration at 71, 628
• Second in voter registration is Bondo with 59, 617;
• Third is Gem with 55, 942
• Fourth is Rarieda with 50, 377
• Fifth is Ugenya with 40, 061
• Sixth is Ugunja with 34, 893.
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Senatorial RaceSenatorial Race• Front runner is Hon. James Aggrey Orengo ‘Nyatieng’.
• Hon. Oburu Odinga withdrew from the race.
• Orengo not likely to meet a challenge from his arch rival Steve Muwanga, after the latter opted to retry the Ugenya seat he was DENIED in Elections 2007.
• Orengo’s support for Dr. Oburu Odinga’s Gubernatorial race likely to cost him a substantial base of support.
• Orengo can bank on the support of Ugenya, Ugunja, Alego-Usonga and Gem.
• This is likely to be a one-horse race if Orengo leaves the Oburu campaigns alone.
• A likely independent candidate from the Diaspora has been touting the possibility of trying the Siaya Senatorial seat, but the mood on the ground is overwhelmingly in support of Orengo.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 11
• Front runner is William Oduol Denge from Alego-Usonga.
• Oduol enjoys the support of the populous Alego-Usonga, Gem, Ugenya and Ugunja.
• Facing competition from Dr. Oburu Odinga.
• Mood on the ground is anti-Oburu as it is perceived he is being imposed on the people.
• Another serious challenger is Malik Abong’o Obama as an Independent Candidate.
• Obama is elder brother to the USA President Barrack Hussein Obama Jr.
• Obama likely to benefit in the event of an ODM goof in the nominations.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 22• Other NOT SO SERIOUS contenders include Banker Felix Owaga Okatch from Gem.
• Owaga doesn’t even have the Gem support.
• Former Gem MP, Joe Donde - Word has it that he is being prevailed upon to support his cousin, Oburu Odinga and be his running-mate.
• Okinda JT - Also has a very small support base from Gem only.
• General feeling from Gem that they also need to feature in top County positions.
• Lawyer Stephen Aluoch K’Opot being groomed for County Assembly Speaker.
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Gubernatorial Race Gubernatorial Race -- 33
• Internationally renown Governance Expert, Gideon Ochanda was being groomed for Deputy Governor but opted out to vie in Bondo Constituency.
• Maseno University Sociology Don, Dr. Nick Ogollaalso being groomed as a potential Deputy Governor.
• The most likely winning team MUST HAVE Oduolwith either Ochanda or Dr. Ogolla as running mate.
• Dr. Oburu Odinga is likely to appoint his cousin Hon. Joe Donde as running mate - This may be DISASTROUS for their candidacy!
• Oduol MUST appoint a running-mate from either Bondo or Rarieda to win.
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BondoBondo Parliamentary RaceParliamentary Race
• The front-runner for the seat is Gideon Ochanda, though a late entrant after expressing interest in Governorship.
• Mama Jacinta Maganda was very strong before Ochanda’sentry, BUT may still turn tables.
• Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate.
• Likely to be a two-horse race between Ochanda and Mama Jacinta Maganda.
• Former UN employee and Social Accountability Activist, Joseph Kwaka is being touted as a potential contender for the seat, although he has not come out in the open to declare interest.
• As a last resort, the incumbent, Hon. Oburu Odinga may opt to defend his seat, but would be really HUMILIATING.
• Other aspirants are Cornelius Agutu, Ouma Onyango and Steve Scot.
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