Political Theory and Strategy Formulationwoon/courses/ps1283_mvt.pdf · Political Theory and Strategy Formulation. Agenda!More political theory " Logrolling (Òvote tradingÓ) " Median

Political TheoryPolitical Theory

and Strategy Formulationand Strategy Formulation

AgendaAgenda

!! More political theoryMore political theory

"" Logrolling (Logrolling (““vote tradingvote trading””))

"" Median voter theoremMedian voter theorem

"" VetoVeto gamegame

!! Generic political strategiesGeneric political strategies

"" Majority-buildingMajority-building

"" RepresentationRepresentation

"" MobilizationMobilization

"" InformationalInformational

LogrollingLogrolling

!! Also known as Also known as ““vote tradingvote trading””

!! Individual projects without majority supportIndividual projects without majority support

as standalone policiesas standalone policies

!! Bundling projects together so that theBundling projects together so that the

package passespackage passes

Logrolling can be efficientLogrolling can be efficient

220220400400-60-60-120-120PoolPool

39539531531540404040IndivIndiv..

BenefitsBenefits

8080-30-30150150-40-40LibraryLibrary

9595-55-55-50-50200200HospitalHospital

NetNet

BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject

Or inefficient Or inefficient !! No logroll No logroll

-10-10400400-140-140-270-270PoolPool

-35-35175175-100-100-110-110IndivIndiv..

BenefitsBenefits

-10-10-120-120150150-40-40LibraryLibrary

-15-15-105-105-110-110200200HospitalHospital

NetNet

BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject

Minimal coalition logrollMinimal coalition logroll

(but still inefficient)(but still inefficient)

-25-25-225-2254040160160IndivIndiv..

BenefitsBenefits

-10-10-120-120150150-40-40LibraryLibrary

-15-15-105-105-110-110200200HospitalHospital

NetNet

BenefitsBenefitsCarlCarlBobBobAnnAnnProjectProject

Median Voter TheoremMedian Voter Theorem

!! Under what conditions might majority ruleUnder what conditions might majority rulebe coherent and predictable?be coherent and predictable?

!! Conditions:Conditions:

"" Policies represented as points on a linePolicies represented as points on a line

"" Voters have single-peaked (and symmetric)Voters have single-peaked (and symmetric)preferencespreferences

!! Then between two policies, majority ruleThen between two policies, majority rulewill choose the one closest to the medianwill choose the one closest to the medianvotervoter’’s most-preferred policys most-preferred policy

Liberal Conservative

Low taxes High taxes

M

Equality Efficiency

Ideal point

Utility function: Symmetric, single-peaked

L M R

L M R

RedRed policy is closer to both L and M policy is closer to both L and M’’s ideals ideal

points than the points than the blueblue policy policy

L M R

Given two policies, the one closer to theGiven two policies, the one closer to the

median votermedian voter’’s will be preferred by as will be preferred by a

simple majoritysimple majority

Median Voter TheoremMedian Voter Theorem

Add an Add an ““open ruleopen rule”” voting process voting process

!! Any alternative can be proposedAny alternative can be proposed

!! Every new proposal is voted against theEvery new proposal is voted against the

last proposal adoptedlast proposal adopted

L M R

L M R

L M R

L M R

L M R

L M R

L M R

L M R

Once the policy located at the medianOnce the policy located at the median’’ssideal point is chosen, nothing else canideal point is chosen, nothing else candefeat it.defeat it.

ImplicationsImplications

!! The MVT is a powerful and useful tool forThe MVT is a powerful and useful tool for

analyzing political outcomesanalyzing political outcomes

!! Identifies forces pushing outcomesIdentifies forces pushing outcomes

towards the middle of political spectrumtowards the middle of political spectrum

!! Legislative institutionsLegislative institutions

!! Electoral competitionElectoral competition

!! Caveat: But procedures matter...Caveat: But procedures matter...

Veto GameVeto Game

Majority-buildingMajority-building

!! Obtain enough votesObtain enough votes

!! In the right places (committees, floor, etc)In the right places (committees, floor, etc)

!! At the At the ““least costleast cost”” to ensure desirable to ensure desirable

outcomeoutcome

Federal ExpressFederal Express

!! Status quo: Ambiguous jurisdiction allowsStatus quo: Ambiguous jurisdiction allows

local unionizationlocal unionization

!! Desired policy: Clear Railway Labor ActDesired policy: Clear Railway Labor Act

jurisdiction, national unionization onlyjurisdiction, national unionization only

!! Current situation:Current situation:

"" Amendment added in conference of Amendment added in conference of ““must-must-

passpass”” authorization bill authorization bill

"" Opponents mounting filibusterOpponents mounting filibuster

Federal ExpressFederal Express

!! Requires 60 votes to invoke Requires 60 votes to invoke ““cloturecloture”” (end (end

filibuster)filibuster)

f = 41q = 30 b = 60

“cutpoint” = 45

Federal Express needs to recruit 41-45 (5 votes);

46-100 already support bill (55 votes)

RepresentationRepresentation

!! What is it based on?What is it based on?

!! How much constituency influence?How much constituency influence?

!! Application of median voter theorem toApplication of median voter theorem to

candidate ideological positioningcandidate ideological positioning

!! Implies convergence to district medianImplies convergence to district median

votervoter

PoliticiansPoliticians’’ Motivations Motivations

!! Helps to know how to influence themHelps to know how to influence them

!! Re-electionRe-election

"" Constituency supportConstituency support

"" Campaign fundingCampaign funding

!! Personal policy interests or ideologyPersonal policy interests or ideology

!! InfluenceInfluence

"" Committee workCommittee work

"" Party loyaltyParty loyalty

!! Progressive ambitionProgressive ambition

Coalition buildingCoalition building

!! Horizontal mobilizationHorizontal mobilization

"" Allies, even competitorsAllies, even competitors

"" Industry coalitionsIndustry coalitions

!! Vertical mobilizationVertical mobilization

Rent chain: Set of stakeholders that earn rents as aRent chain: Set of stakeholders that earn rents as a

result of interaction with the firmresult of interaction with the firm

DistributorsDistributorsCustomersCustomers

SuppliersSuppliersEmployeesEmployees

RepresentationRepresentation

!! Focuses on the electoral connectionFocuses on the electoral connection

!! Geographic coverage is keyGeographic coverage is key

!! If coverage does not exist, mobilize rentIf coverage does not exist, mobilize rent

chain or industry coalitionschain or industry coalitions

InformationalInformational

!! Technical informationTechnical information

"" FeasibilityFeasibility

"" Policy consequencesPolicy consequences

"" CostCost

!! Political informationPolitical information

"" Effects on constituentsEffects on constituents

"" Extent of supportExtent of support

!! Requires credibility to be effectiveRequires credibility to be effective