Political Science 10: Introduction to American Politics Week 4 Taylor Carlson [email protected] October 26, 2017 Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 1 / 11
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Political Science 10: Introduction to American PoliticsWeek 4
Taylor [email protected]
October 26, 2017
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 1 / 11
Plan for the Day
Reading Quiz
Go over learning outcomes
Announcements
Answer questions from lecture this week
Review the Median Voter Theorem
Discuss Sides and Vavreck (2013) The Gamble, Chapter 2: “TheHand You’re Dealt”
Discuss election forecastingDiscuss Obama as the frontrunner or the underdog?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 2 / 11
Reading Quiz
Clearly write your name at the top of the quiz
Turn your quiz over when you are finished
Good luck!
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 3 / 11
Learning Outcomes
By the end of section today, you should be able to:
Explain the Median Voter Theorem
Summarize Sides’ and Vavreck’s argument about whether (and why)Obama was the front-runner or the underdog going into the 2012election
Describe the factors that are commonly used in election forecastingand why they are useful
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 4 / 11
Announcements
Reminder: O�ce Hours are Wednesdays 8am-9:30am and11am-11:55am in SSB 341, or by appointment ([email protected]).Extra o�ce hours for midterm prep:
Monday, 10/30 3pm-4:30pm in SSB 341Wednesday, 11/1 2:30pm-4:00pm in SSB 341Thursday, 11/2 4pm-5:30pm outside WLH
Participation grade update soon
Midterm review next week — please come prepared with questions
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 5 / 11
Questions??
What questions do you have from lecture this week?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 6 / 11
The Median Voter Theorem
Driving Question: How do people vote?
Answer: People vote for the candidate who takes the policy positionthey most prefer (see lecture slides)
Definition: A majority rule voting system selects the outcome mostpreferred by the median (middle) voter
In class, Professor Hill showed an example of defense spendingpreferences. Let’s look at another policy area: gun control
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 7 / 11
The Median Voter Theorem
Driving Question: How do people vote?
Answer: People vote for the candidate who takes the policy positionthey most prefer (see lecture slides)
Definition: A majority rule voting system selects the outcome mostpreferred by the median (middle) voter
In class, Professor Hill showed an example of defense spendingpreferences. Let’s look at another policy area: gun control
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 7 / 11
The Median Voter Theorem
Driving Question: How do people vote?
Answer: People vote for the candidate who takes the policy positionthey most prefer (see lecture slides)
Definition: A majority rule voting system selects the outcome mostpreferred by the median (middle) voter
In class, Professor Hill showed an example of defense spendingpreferences. Let’s look at another policy area: gun control
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 7 / 11
The Median Voter Theorem
Driving Question: How do people vote?
Answer: People vote for the candidate who takes the policy positionthey most prefer (see lecture slides)
Definition: A majority rule voting system selects the outcome mostpreferred by the median (middle) voter
In class, Professor Hill showed an example of defense spendingpreferences. Let’s look at another policy area: gun control
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 7 / 11
MedianVoterTheorem
Example:GunControlPolicy
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
Happ
iness
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
Voter1Ha
ppiness
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
Voter1 Voter2Ha
ppiness
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
Voter1 Voter2 Voter3Ha
ppiness
FullRestric,onsFirearmsonly
forthemilitaryand
police
NoRestric,onsAnyoneinAmericacanpurchaseafirearm
LooseRestric,onsAnyoneoveracertainage,whohaspassed
firearmsafety
ModerateRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord
StrongRestric,ons
Agerequirement,firearmsafety,nocriminalrecord,
waiDngperiod
Voter1 Voter2 Voter3Ha
ppiness
Voter4Voter5Voter6
Voter7Voter8Voter9 Voter10
Voter11
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
Happ
iness
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateA CandidateB
FullRestric,onsVoter4
NoRestric,onsVoter3Voter10
LooseRestric,onsVoter8Voter9
ModerateRestric,onsVoter2Voter7Voter11
StrongRestric,onsVoter1Voter5Voter6
CandidateACandidateB
The Median Voter Theorem—Key Points
Voters have single peaked preferences
Voters choose the candidate closest to their preferred outcome
Candidates respond to voters’ preferences and alter their positions tomake them most likely to win the elections
! Candidates strategically moderate, trying to capture the medianvoterThe median voter is NOT necessarily in the middle of the policy space
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 8 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?
Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes?
Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
How do we predict election outcomes?
What might we want to measure?Presidential approval ratingsRate of economic growth
Thinking back to the theories of voter decision making discussed inlecture, what should we measure to predict election outcomes? Recallthese voting rules:
Heuristics: incumbent performance, single issues, opinion leaders,candidate traits, party labelRetrospective voting ruleProspective voting ruleSingle issue voting
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 9 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
According to Sides and Vavreck, was Obama the front-runner or theunderdog going into the 2012 election?
Slight front-runner
Why? What evidence did they use to support this argument?Economic conditions? —because people blamed Bush instead ofObamaLikability factor? —perceived as warm, empathetic, “Obama theperson”Partisan polarization?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 10 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
According to Sides and Vavreck, was Obama the front-runner or theunderdog going into the 2012 election?
Slight front-runner
Why? What evidence did they use to support this argument?Economic conditions? —because people blamed Bush instead ofObamaLikability factor? —perceived as warm, empathetic, “Obama theperson”Partisan polarization?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 10 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
According to Sides and Vavreck, was Obama the front-runner or theunderdog going into the 2012 election?
Slight front-runner
Why? What evidence did they use to support this argument?Economic conditions? —because people blamed Bush instead ofObamaLikability factor? —perceived as warm, empathetic, “Obama theperson”Partisan polarization?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 10 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
According to Sides and Vavreck, was Obama the front-runner or theunderdog going into the 2012 election?
Slight front-runner
Why? What evidence did they use to support this argument?
Economic conditions? —because people blamed Bush instead ofObamaLikability factor? —perceived as warm, empathetic, “Obama theperson”Partisan polarization?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 10 / 11
Sides and Vavreck (2013)
According to Sides and Vavreck, was Obama the front-runner or theunderdog going into the 2012 election?
Slight front-runner
Why? What evidence did they use to support this argument?Economic conditions? —because people blamed Bush instead ofObamaLikability factor? —perceived as warm, empathetic, “Obama theperson”Partisan polarization?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 10 / 11
Questions to Ponder
Where might latent opinion fit in? Is latent opinion part of electionforecasting? How so?
Last week we discussed the conditions under which public opinion ismeaningful, finding many cases where it might not be as informativeas we’d like to think. How does this complicate our understanding ofthe strategic moderation employed by candidates in the median votertheorem? How do candidates know what the median voter prefers?
Thinking back to our discussion about party cohesion and polarizationfrom Week 2, how do these concepts help or hinder the median votertheorem? Would the median voter theorem be most e↵ective (orrealistic) under high or low party cohesion? What about polarization?
Voting is hard and it’s hard for candidates to get a good sense ofwhat the public wants. How does this impact our ability to constrainthe government?
Carlson POLI 10-Week 4 October 26, 2017 11 / 11
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