Political Monitor Trends...0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06

Political Monitor Trends

September 2008

Contacts: [email protected] [email protected] 020 7347 3000

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Voting Intentions

Voting Intention: everyone vs. those “certain to vote”

45%

29%

12%

14%

52%

24%

12%

12%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: All voting = 81% (822); All certain to vote = 55% (556); data collected among 1,017 British adults 18+, 12th –

14th September

All giving a voting intention (81%)

All certain to vote (55%)

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Con

LD

Lab

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = +16 Conservative lead = +28

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03M

ar-03M

ay-03Jul-03S

ep-03N

ov-03Jan-04M

ar-04M

ay-04Jul-04S

ep-04N

ov-04Jan-05M

ar-05M

ay-05Jul-05S

ep-05N

ov-05Jan-06M

ar-06M

ay-06Jul-06S

ep-06N

ov-06Jan-07M

ar-07M

ay-07Jul-07S

ep-07N

ov-07Jan-08M

ar-08M

ay-08Jul-08S

ep-08

Voting Intentions Jan 03 – September 08 (all certain to vote)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

(52%)

(24%)

(12%)

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Howard elected (Nov 03)

2005 General Election

Cameron elected (Dec 05)

Brown elected (Jun 07)


-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08Conservative vote share including margins of error

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical

representations of voting intention2005 General

ElectionCameron elected

(Dec 05)Brown elected

(Jun 07) 52%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08


representations of voting intention

Labour vote share including margins of error





24%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-05Feb-05M

ar-05A

pr-05M

ay-05Jun-05Jul-05A

ug-05S

ep-05O

ct-05N

ov-05D

ec-05Jan-06Feb-06M

ar-06A

pr-06M

ay-06Jun-06Jul-06A

ug-06S

ep-06O

ct-06N

ov-06D

ec-06Jan-07Feb-07M

ar-07A

pr-07M

ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A

ug-07S

ep-07O

ct-07N

ov-07D

ec-07Jan-08Feb-08M

ar-08A

pr-08M

ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A

ug-08S

ep-08O

ct-08






representations of voting intention

Liberal Democrat vote share including margins of error

Clegg elected (Dec 07)

12%

Leads and error margins

40

30

20

10

0

10

20

Jan2003

Jul2003

Jan2004

Jul2004

Jan2005

Jul2005

Jan2006

Jul2006

Jan2007

Jul2007

Jan2008

Jul2008

Con

serv

ativ

e le

adLa

bour

lead

General election ’05 (Labour majority of 66 seats) Est. Labour

lead required for a Labour overallmajority

Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overallmajority

32

24

69

76

48

32

24

18

% Dissatisfied % Satisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

David Cameron

The Government

Nick Clegg

Net satisfaction

+16

-58

+8

Gordon Brown -45


Net change from Aug08

-6

-2

+1

+2

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as …?

Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008

Satisfaction

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

BLACK WEDNESDAYGE 1992

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

nNet satisfaction with new Prime Ministers: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown

MAJOR / BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

THATCHER / BLAIR

NEW PM

DONATIONS SCANDAL

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

GEN. ELEC SPECULATION

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

BLACK WEDNESDAY

GE 1992

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

nNet satisfaction with new Governments: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown

Number of months from new PM

MAJOR / BROWN

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?

THATCHER / BLAIR

NEW PM →

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Net

sat

isfie

d %

BROWN

MAJOR

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979– 2008)

Number of months from becoming PM

THATCHER

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd

week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

FALKLANDS WAR (Thatcher)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Net

sat

isfie

d %

HAGUE

DUNCAN SMITH

HOWARD

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2008)

Number of months from becoming leaderCAMERON

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR

Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3rd

week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Jan-05Feb MarAprMayJune

JulyAugSept Oct Nov

Jan-06Feb MarAprMay Jun JulSept Oct NovDec

Jan-07AprMay JunJulyAugSept OctDec

Jan-08Feb MarAprMayJune

JulyAugust

September

The Government and Prime Minister

Government Blair/Brown

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…Net satisfied (+/-)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

BLAIR BROWN

Gordon Brown (satisfaction)

24%

69%

7%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?

SatisfiedDon’t know

September 2008

DissatisfiedNet = -45

September 2007 – September 2008


Dissatisfied

Satisfied


Gordon Brown (satisfaction among Labour supporters)

51%43%

6%

Base: 239 Labour supporters 18+, 12-14 September 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister?


September 2008

Dissatisfied

Net = +8

September 2007 – September 2008


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction)

48%

32%

20%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?


Dissatisfied Net = +16

Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face

methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

06 Feb

Mar Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ctN

ovJa

n-07 Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ctD

ecJa

n-08 Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

January 2006 – September 2008Note: methodology change (f2f tel)

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

79%

12%9%



Base: 356 Conservative Supporters 18+, 12-14 September 2008Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face

methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

January 2006 – September 2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

06 Feb

Mar Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

tO

ctN

ovD

ecJa

n-07 Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

tO

ctD

ecJa

n-08 Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?

Note: methodology change (f2f tel)

Nick Clegg (satisfaction)

32%

24%

44%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?


September 2008




Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1,017 British adults, 12-14 September 2008

Economic Optimism

Economic Optimism Index

12%

16%

70%

1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

04 Mar

May July

Sep

tN

ovJa

n-05 Mar

May July

Sep

tN

ovFe

bA

prJu

neS

ept

Nov

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Dec

-07

Feb-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

n-08

Aug

-08

ImproveDon’t knowSeptember 2008

Get worse


EOI = -58%

Improve 12%

Get worse 70%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Stay the same

Stay the same 16%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults, 12-14 September 2008

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

'97

Jun

'97

Nov

'97

Apr

'98

Sep

'98

Jan

'99

Jun

'99

Nov

'99

Apr

'00

Sep

'00

Feb

'01

Jul '

01

Dec

'01

May

'02

Oct

'02

Mar

'03

Aug

'03

Jan

'04

Jun

'04

Oct

'04

Mar

'05

Aug

'05

Jan

'06

Jun

'06

Nov

'06

Apr

'07

Sep

'07

Feb

'08

Jul '

08

Index (get better minus get worse)

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

+28

-46

-4

-58-56(September 08)


Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Economic Optimism since 1979

FalklandsApr-Jun ‘82

GE Jun ‘83GE Jun

‘87

Poll tax riotsMar ‘90

Gulf WarJan-Feb ‘91

GE April ‘92

Black WedSept ‘92

GE May ‘97

GE May ‘01

Fuel crisisSept ‘00

Iraq WarMar ‘03

Sept 11, ‘01

Russia crisisAug-Sept ‘98

GE May ‘05

London bombs Jul ‘05

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month

September 2008 additional questions

…Has the best team of leaders

36%

27%

36%

40%

25%

27%

5%

17%

9%

39%21%

8%

…Is most likely to promise anything to win

votes

…Best understands Britain’s social problems

Which party do you think has…, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

+18

-4

+9

Conservative lead

+2

Party qualities

…Best understands the economic

problems facing Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008

ConLabLD

Conservatives ready to govern?


To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives are ready to form the next Government?

5854

29 30

45

40

01020304050607080

Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008

Two thirds agree ‘British society is broken’

35%

28%7%

16%

11%

3% Strongly agree

Don’t know

Tend to disagree

Neither

To what extent do you agree or disagree that British society is broken?

Tend to agree

Strongly disagree

27%

63%

Agree

18-34 63%

35-54 61%

55+ 64%

ABC1 61%

C2DE 65%


Half agree that Cameron represents modern Britain

16%

33%10%

18%

18%5%

Strongly agreeDon’t know

Tend to disagree


Neither

To what extent do you agree or disagree that David Cameron represents modern Britain?

Tend to agree

Strongly disagree

36%49%


Agree

18-34 42%

35-54 50%

55+ 54%

ABC1 49%

C2DE 49%

Half agree that Brown is doing a reasonable job in difficult circumstances

36%16%

26% 15%

5%

Strongly agreeDon’t know (1%)

Tend to disagree


Neither

To what extent do you agree or disagree that Gordon Brown is doing a reasonable job in difficult circumstances?

Tend to agree

Strongly disagree

42%

51%


Agree

Con 32%

Lab 81%

LibDem 49%

9%9%

8%8%8%

7%6%

5%5%

25%15%

*%

Modern/fresh view/a change

Age

Good speaker/orator

Family man

Good leader/strong leader/statesman

Ordinary person/in touch with the people

What would you say are the main things you like about David Cameron? (mentions > 5%)

What people like about David Cameron

Overall image

Personality

Nothing

Seems a nice man/kind/caring

Don’t know

Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Everything

10%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

0%

44%

11%

Good/sound judgement/integrity

Family man

Good leader/strong leader/statesman

Experienced/economic experience

What people like about Gordon Brown

Seems like a nice man/kind/caring

Nothing

Personality

Don’t knowSource: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008

What would you say are the main things you like about Gordon Brown? (mentions > 3%)

Tries hard/works hard

Ordinary person/in touch with the people

Honest/truthful

Everything

9%

5%

5%

5%

4%

4%

4%

3%

21%

22%

Overall image

Can’t trust him/untrustworthy

Makes promises he can’t keep/ doesn’t keep

What people dislike about David Cameron

Too posh

Nothing

Everything

Don’t know


What would you say are the main things you dislike about David Cameron? (mentions > 3%)

Smarmy/smug/slimy/sleazy

Arrogant/pompous

Dithers/lack of conviction/indecisive

13%12%

10%7%7%

6%6%

5%5%5%5%

11%10%

Not a good leader/lacks statesmanship

Out of touch

Dithers/lack of convictionCan’t trust him/untrustworthy

Makes promises he can’t keep/ doesn’t keep

What people dislike about Gordon Brown

Weak person/not strong enough

Everything

Incompetent

Overall image

NothingDon’t know


What would you say are the main things you dislike about Gordon Brown? (mentions > 5%)

Economic track record

Don’t like his policies

What kind of Prime Minister would you prefer?


I would prefer a Prime Minister who

mainly trusts his own judgment and

experience to make decisions

I would prefer a Prime Minister who mainly acts on the views and opinions of the general public to make decisions

I would prefer a Prime Minister

who is generally similar to me in

terms of background and

experience

I would prefer a Prime Minister who is better qualified than me in terms of background and experience

For each of these statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your ideal.

32%

24% 71%

64%


Questions, comments, queries:

[email protected] [email protected]

020 7347 3000

Political Monitor Trends...0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06

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