Political Gridlock, Corporate Influence and Campaign Finance Adam Bonica Department of Political Science Stanford University SEIPR Policy Forum: Money, Politics and The Economy
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Political Gridlock, Corporate Influence and Campaign Finance
Adam Bonica Department of Political Science
Stanford University
SEIPR Policy Forum: Money, Politics and The Economy
1. Introduce new tools for studying money in politics
2. Ideological mapping of the economy
3. Avenues of influence, political gridlock, and campaign finance reform
Outline
• Campaign Finance Database – 85M+ records from 1979-Present
– Encompasses state and federal elections
– 10,561 federal candidates
– 40,160 state candidates
– 6,203 campaign committees
– Identity resolution
– 11.1 Million individual donors (3.1 million of which have given to two or more candidates)
• Spatial Model of Giving
– Contributors as expert raters of candidate ideology
– Statistical model recovers positions along a “latent” ideological dimension
Measuring Political Ideology from Campaign Finance Records
The Bigger Sort
Ideology (Liberal/Conservative)
Dow Jones Ideological Average
Corporate Board Member Ideology
Forbes 400
Contribution statistics of members of Forbes 400
Made campaign contributions: 377
Total amount donated: $458.7M Mean: $1.21M
Median: $355,100
Forbes 400
Forbes 400
Regression highlights Self-made billions are one average more liberal
Strong generational effects
Ideology varies by industry
Dependent Variable: Political Ideology
The Debt Ceiling Crisis
Avenues to Influence
Influence
Selection Elections
Policy
Lobbying Access-Seeking Subsidizing
Start-up Funds Competitive races Advertising
How do Corporations Spend on Politics?
Corporate Political Spending by Type
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Ballot Campaigns
State Elections
Federal PAC Contributions
527s
Independent Expenditures
Federal Lobbying
2004 2006 2008 2010
— Corporations spend much more on lobbying than all other types of political activity combined.
$ (
Mill
ion
s)
How do Corporations Spend on Politics?
Corporate Political Spending by Type
2004 2006 2008 2010
— Corporations spend much more on lobbying than all other types of political activity combined.
$ (
Mill
ion
s)
$5,177M
$400M
$401M
$128M
$106M
$15.5M
How do Corporations Spend on Politics?
Donations to the House (2010 election cycle)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Small Donors Corporate Executives Corporate and Industry PACs
Non-Incumb (Losers)
Non-Incumb (Winners)
Incumb
Joe Wilson: Heckle and Prosper
Joe Wilson: Heckle and Prosper
Fight! Fight! Fight!
The Partisan Purge
Corporate Executives
Corporate PACs
Independent Expenditures
Small Donors (<$200)
The Partisan Purge
Corporate Executives
Corporate PACs
Independent Expenditures
Small Donors (<$200)
Fundraising Sources by Ideology
Breakdown of funds to candidates to extreme and center wings of the party?
Democrats Republicans
Avenues to Influence
Influence
Selection Elections
Policy
Lobbying Access-Seeking Subsidizing
Start-up Funds Competitive races Advertising
Buying Ideology
Ideological Donors
Buying Access
Corporations Special Interest Groups
What does this mean for campaign finance reform?
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