Political Forecast for 2016 - myfloridaelections.com...Voting Process IS Being Closely Watched in 2016 ^Weve got to make it easier to vote, not harder. We need to modernize it for

Political Forecast for 2016

Dr. Susan A. MacManus University of South Florida, Tampa

Dept. of Govt. & Intl. Affairs Anthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates

FSASE Canvassing Board Workshop January 14, 2016

SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

Election Dynamics in 2016 • Florida: key battleground state • 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate • 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15),

Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8) • 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21;

DEM Week of July 25) • Presidential debates in Florida • Fundraising for campaigns at all levels • Interface with national parties and PACs • Constant barrage of political-related media • New district lines—U.S. Congress, state legislature

What’s Different in 2016?

Voter Attitudes Trust levels Fears Tone of Candidates, Ads Heightened Activism/Protests

Americans Distrustful of Govt.

An Era of Protests: Peaceful & Violent

“…[E]veryone with a smartphone is now a reporter, news photographer, and documentary filmmaker. It’s a wonder that every newspaper doesn’t have a ‘Protest’ section.”

Thomas L. Friedman New York Times

January 13, 2016

Florida’s Close!! 2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov.

Results

Obama 50.0% Romney 49.1%

Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7%

Scott 48.2% Crist 47.1%

Turnout

Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State

What is a Swing State?

Diversity • Race/ethnicity • Age • Economic • Party Affiliation Ability to Pick Winning Candidate

Voter Registration Pattern: 1972-2015

0

10

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90

100

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72

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00

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No

v-1

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Per

cen

t (%

) Republican

Democrat

Other

Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL

Generations in 2016

Why Look at Generations?

• Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today’s campaigns.

• Analyses of the two “super generations,” the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target women voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party.

•

Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents

Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents*

Greatest Generation/GI

Generation

Before

1928

89+ World War II, The Great Depression, The

New Deal

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

The Silent Generation 1928-

1945

71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of Conformity,

Korean War

Harry Truman and Dwight

Eisenhower

The Baby Boomers 1946-

1964

52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s Youth

Culture—Save the World Activism, Drugs,

Free Love, Vietnam War

John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson,

Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and

Jimmy Carter

Generation X 1965-

1980

36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key kids,

transition to computers, AIDS

Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush,

and Bill Clinton

Millennials/Generation Y After

1980

18 to

35**

9/11, Social Media, Iraq and Afghanistan

conflicts, Great Recession, BP oil spill

George W. Bush and Barack Obama

Young v. Old Voters: FL

Reaching Younger Voters

Gender in 2016

Pundit Prediction

• “There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them—and one that will be critical to the outcome.” Charlie Cook, political

analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015

Gender Gap: FL

Women in 2016

• Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes.

• Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized.

• Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage —as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers.

Media Market Definitions

Overall Turnout: 50%

11

18

2123

5

10

3033

23

35

20

28

20

1

9

44

37

11

24

2527

23

5

11

44 43

15

1

0

5

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50

Mar

gin

of

Vic

tory

in M

edia

Mar

ket

Margin of Victory 2010 GOV, 2012 PRES, 2014 GOV

Media Markets(Blue) DEM Victory(Red) REP Victory

A Decade of Changes to Florida’s Election System

• More Uniformity

• New Voting Equipment

• Ballot-Testing

• Early (Convenience) Voting

• More Efficient Voter Education

• Centralized Voter Registration System

• Better Protection Against Disenfranchisement at the Polls

• Protecting the Rights of Military and Overseas Civilians

• Checking Voter Ineligibility

Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms

Democrats • Minimum Wage • Restoration of felon voting rights • Income Inequality • Medicaid expansion • Election processes • Gun control/Stand Your Ground • Police conduct/sentencing disparities • Reproductive rights • Marijuana legalization • Cost of education • Environment • Social Services

Republicans • Economy/economic development • Jobs • Immigration • Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives • Government spending • 2nd Amendment/Gun rights • Religious freedom • Common Core? • Uber/Lyft • Law Enforcement Funding • School choice • Fraud in registration/voting/illegals

Potential Election Controversies in 2016

• Registration

• Online Registration

• The Voter Registration Roll

• Absentee Ballots

• Provisional Ballot Invalidation

• Early In-Person Voting

• Average Wait Time in Line to Vote

• Disabled Voters and Touch Screen Voting Machines

• Felons Waiting to Have Their Voting Rights Restored

• Inaccurate Public Opinion Polls

Horse Race Polls Under Attack

Voting Process IS Being Closely Watched in 2016

“We’ve got to make it easier to vote, not harder. We need to modernize it for the way we live now. This is America. We want to make it easier for people to participate. And over the course of this year, I intend to travel the country to push for reforms that do just that.”

President Barack Obama State of the Union Address

January 12, 2016

Teamwork Needed More Than Ever

Neither other elected officials nor voters “think much about the resources necessary to running elections, unless something goes wrong. [Yet] there is zero tolerance for error in elections, so elections officials are constantly challenged with maintaining perfection on tighter and shrinking budgets.”

Chair of the National Elections Assistance Commission (EAC)

Voters Grade the 2014 Election Process

(Rank Order: Strongest to Weakest)

• 1. Making it convenient to vote (68%)

• 2. Providing highly dependable election equipment (53%)

• 3. Informing citizens about election laws and procedures (50%)

USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY: FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES

sunshinestatesurvey.org

Turnout in Presidential Election

Increases (Florida Data)

• Presidential 2008 75% • Presidential Preference Primary 42%

• Governor 2010 (midterm) 49%

• Presidential 2012 72%

• Presidential Preference Primary 41%

• Governor 2014 (midterm) 50%

58% 56%

43%

33%

43% 38%

29%

19% 20%

42% 41%

59% 58%

44%

31% 32% 36%

31% 35%

26% 25% 26%

18% 21%

77% 74% 79%

74% 77% 77% 75% 73%

83%

67% 70% 74% 75%

72%

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10

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1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Pe

rce

nt

of

Vo

ters

(%

) Florida Presidential Election-Year Voter Turnout, 1960-2012

Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election

Sharpest Increase in Turnout in

Presidential Elections

• Young Voters

• Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics)

• Unmarried Females

Convenience Voting on the Rise

Source: Data available from the Florida Division of Elections.

Florida Picks Winners!

Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN!

Swing

State!

Florida Politics at Your Fingertips

Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State

Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State

Florida Political Parties: Major & Minor

Major Political Parties

Florida Democratic Party (DEM) Republican Party of Florida (REP)

Minor Political Parties

America’s Party of Florida (AIP)

Ecology Party of Florida (ECO)

Green Party of Florida (GRE)

Independent Party of Florida (INT)

Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF)

Peace & Freedom Party of Florida (PFP)

Tea Party of Florida (TPF)

Constitution Party of Florida (CPF)

Florida Socialist Workers Party (FSW)

Independence Party of Florida (IDP)

Justice Party of Florida (JPF)

Party for Socialism and Liberation-Florida

(PSL)

Reform Party (REF)

Urban-Suburban-Rural Split