Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology.

Political Beliefs and Behaviors

American political ideology

What’s your political belief?

• Survey given to 10-14 year olds• One day the President was driving his car

to a meeting. Because he was late, he was driving very fast. The police stopped the car. (Finish the story)

• Different countries answer differently– England – Queen would be released– France – President would be excused– US – President would get a ticket like everyone

else

Types of Participation

2000 Election participation• 82% watched the campaign on television• 73% voted in the election• 34% tried to influence others how to vote• 10% put a sticker on their car• 9% gave money to help a campaign• 5% attended a political meeting• 3% worked for a party or candidate

• Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No

Who REALLY participates?

Different factors can tell us who votes

1. Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more education=more voting

2. Religious involvement

3. Race and Ethnicity – Whites higher than minorities (might be economic based)

4. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest

Who REALLY participates?

5. Gender – men traditionally voted more, now it is more equal

6. Two-party competition – more competitive elections have higher turnout

Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals influenced by many factors, it is important when testing for this that variables are controlled

Voting

• Trend of low voter turnout• 1964 – 69.3%(Voting Age Population %)• 1980 – 41.3%• 1984 – 60.9%• 1988 – 40.5%• 1992 – 55.2%• 1996 – 49.1%• 2000 – 51.3%• 2004 – 55.3%• 2008 - ???

Expanding Suffrage

1. Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white males

2. Suffrage for African-Americans (1863-1964)1. 1865 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights to all

2. 1954 - Brown v. Board – separate but equal is illegal, killed Jim Crow laws

3. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax

4. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law prohibited (no literacy tests, fair elections etc.)

Expanding Suffrage

3. Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote

4. 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment, sparked by Vietnam

Voter Turnout

• Registered Voter turnout

• Eligible Voter turnout

• Voter Registration – blamed as one of the causes of low turnout

• “Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter Registration Act – allowed people to register to vote while they get license

Other reasons for low turnout

• Difficulty of Absentee Voting

• Number of Offices to Elect too high

• Weekday, non-holiday voting

• Weak political parties – less “get-out-the-vote campaigns

Public Opinion

• The distribution of individual attitudes about a particular issue, candidate, political institution, etc.

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm

George Gallup

• Developed “Gallup Polls”• Started in 1932• 1st “pollster”• Since 1936, agency has picked one general election result

incorrect• OTHER POLLS• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Sampling

• Representative – must mirror population you want answer about

• Random – give everyone an equal possibility of being sampled

• Wording – questions can’t be leading

• Straw poll – poor polling technique

• WEST WING EPISODE 1-6

Political Socialization

• Factors that influence a person’s opinion

• People in different social “groups” tend to share certain opinions: group identification

Family

• #1 influence of political attitude

• Very strong correlation for Political Party support

Gender

Examples

• More men support military• More women consider sexual

harassment a serious problem• Since ’60s, women vote Dem more

than men, and vice versa• Not as significant of an indicator as

marriage (married vs. unmarried)

Religion

Example

• Protestants are more conservative on economic matters than Catholics or Jews

• Catholics tend to be more liberal on economic issues than they are on social issues (Catholics becoming more conservative)

• Liberal minds tend to be LESS religiously affiliated.

Education

Example

• Higher Education = more conservative

or

• College education = liberal views

Conflicting results, not always a correlation

Social Class

• “Blue collar” (Laborer) typically Democrat

• “White collar” (Businessmen) typically Republican

Relationship is becoming less clear: let’s clear it up

Race and Ethnicity

Examples• African Americans – 90% Democrats• Hispanic Americans – tend to affiliate with

Democrats, but less likely than African Americans

• Asian Americans – less liberal than Hispanic Americans or African Americans, but still consistently vote Democrat

• White, more divided, fluctuates by election

Geographic Region

Example

• East and West Coasts – more liberal

• Mid-West – more conservative

• Urban - liberal

• South – 1870-1950s - Democrat “Solid South” but today they are primarily social conservatives

• White Southerner always less liberal except for self-serving subsidies…oil, gas, farm, ranch.

Political Ideology

• Coherent set of values and beliefs about public policy

• Changes over time for all people

• Liberal and conservative mean different things at different time periods

How ideological are Americans?

• 1950 study – “The American Voter”• 4 basic types of voter

1. Ideologues – 12% of people connect their opinions to party lines

2. Group Benefits Voter – 42% of people connect their opinion to their “group”. (labor union, interest group, class, race)

How ideological are Americans?

3. Nature of the times voter – 24% of the people linked good or bad times to the party in control and vote the opposite (usually based on economics).

4. No Issue Content – 22% of the people could give no reason

Liberal vs. Conservative

• (see handout)

“Neo-Cons”

• Neo-Conservatives

1. Low tax, pro-economic growth

2. Ordered approach to domestic issues– Traditional values – pro-life, against gay

marriage, support death penalty

3. Expansive foreign policy• Counter global terrorism – “war on terror”• expensive

Exit Polls

• Polling after voting

• Tommy Bradley effect – in a white vs non-white election, voters tend to mislead pollsters in favor of the non-white candidate for the sake of political correctness.