Polish Nuclear Power Program · PDF filePolish Nuclear Power Program Rationale to introduce nuclear powerin Poland: 1.assuring long-term security of electricity supply 2.maintaining

Polish Nuclear Power ProgramŁukasz KUŹNIARSKI

expertNuclear Energy Department, Ministry of Economy

POLAND

Poland is surrounded by NPPs up to 300 km from state borders

Polish Nuclear Power Program2

• 23 reactors operating• 6 reactors under construction• 9 reactors planned up to 2025

In 2020 Poland will be entirelysurrounded by NPPs.

From 2024 the only neighbour country with no NPP will be Germany. However, Germany will be importing significant amount of nuclear electricity from France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Poland.

PolandGermany

RussiaSweden

Ukraine

ItalyRomania

Bulgaria

Norway

Polish Nuclear Power Program

Rationale to introduce nuclear power in Poland:1. assuring long-term security of electricity supply2. maintaining electricity prices at levels acceptable by the national

economy and the society3. reducing emission of SO2, NOX (air pollutants), and CO2 (GHG)


Legal framework of the Nuclear Power Program

• Resolution no. 4/2009 of the Council of the Ministers of 13 January 2009 on nuclear power development activities

• Ordinance of the Council of Ministers of 12 May 2009 on establishing Government Commissioner for Nuclear Power in Poland

• Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 11 August 2009 on „Framework time schedule for nuclear power activities”

• National Energy Policy up to 2030 – approved by the Council of Ministers in November 2009

• Law of May 13th, 2011 on amendment of Atomic Law and other laws -entered into force on 2011.07.01

• Law of June 29th, 2011 on preparation and realization of Investments in nuclear facilities and accompanying investments - entered into force on 2011.07.01

• Polish Nuclear Power Program – approved by the Council of Ministers on 28th of January 2014.


5

Status of implementation of the PNPP

PNPP phases:

• Phase I – 01/01/2014 - 31/12/2016: site selection, call for tender for the reactor technology, technology selection

• Phase II – 01/01/2017 - 12/31/2018: drafting of blueprints and obtaining all required regulatory approvals

• Phase III – 01/01/2019 - 12/31/2024: building permit and construction of the 1st reactor of the first nuclear power plant, starting construction of the 2nd reactor

• Phase IV – 01/01/2025 - 12/31/2030: completion of the first nuclear power plant (2-3 units), beginning of construction of a second nuclear power plant. The PNPP envisages 6,000 MWe (i.e. 2 NPPs with 2-3 units each) in nuclear until 2035.


According to study made by EMA in June 2013 the final electricity consumption in Poland will increase by 36% in 2030 which is 1.5% on a year-by-year basis.

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.020

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

30

[TW

h]

Prognoza'2013 Prognoza'2011

6

Update of forecast for electricity demand until 2030

Source: Update of forecast of fuels and energy demand, EMA, June 2013


Total electricity production currently is ca. 160 TWh/y.

Source: Update of forecast of fuel and electricity demand until 2030, ARE S.A., June 2013

Demand for electricity in Poland will grow

7

Households

Agriculture

Industry and construction

Trade and services

Transport

Update of forecast of final electricity demand[TWh]

Households

Trade and services

Industry and construction

AgricultureTransport


EU ambitions regarding climate change – a challenge for Poland

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2020 Package(binding)

2030 Framework forclimate and energy

(proposed)

2050 Roadmap tolow-carbon economy

(proposed)

CO2 obligatory reductionCO2 emissions allowed

8 Polish Nuclear Power Program

McKinsey`s curve of GHG reduction costs for Poland up to 2030

9

nuclear powernuclear power

wind on-shorewind on-shore

coal with CCScoal with CCS

Emission reduction costs EUR/t CO2e

Emission reduction costs EUR/t CO2e

Assumed price CO2: EUR 10 per tonneAssumed price CO2: EUR 10 per tonne


Age Structure of the Existing Power Plants in Poland


up to 5 years7%

6-10 years6%

11-15 years7%

16-20 years5%

21-25 years5%

26-30 years15%

over 30 years55%

Out of 39 GWe of current capacity ca. 6 GWe will be written off before 2020 and a further 9GWe will be shutdown before 2030. This is 38%. Nuclear power plants can replace it to some extent.

Emissions of main air pollutants by the electricity generation sector in Poland (2012)

Pollutant PM SO2 NOX CO Cd Pb Hg CH4 CO2

Amount (tons)

17 454

366 634

216 960

39 911 84 1 694 2 512 4 255147 338

000

Trend 2008-2012

11

source: Emitor 2012, Energy Market Agency (ARE S.A.)

credit: Leszek Kozłowski, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0


Comparison of averaged electricity generation costs for technologies foreseen to implement in PL from 2025


Source: Update of study of electricity generation costs with nuclear, coal, gas power plants and RES, EMA, April 2013

Assumed discount rate: 6%Nuclear investment cost: €4,000,000/MWe

21.2 23.340.5

6.531.1 32.9

14.830.8 37.1 27.6

53.364.5

122.8

9.4 10.1

14.4

5.5

13.7 14.3

6.2

14.815.2

17

20.2

30.1

23.3

33.7 23.4

9.5 94.643.1 30.3

65.235.3

41.980.5

25.3 31

16.5

3.24

11.4 26.5 3.16.37.9

6.2

7.6

6.5

11.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Hard

Coa

l

Lign

ite

Nuc

lear

(gen

III)

Nat

ural

gas

Hard

Coa

l + C

CS

Lign

ite +

CCS

GTCC

IGCC

_C

IGCC

_C+C

CS

Biom

ass

Win

d on

shor

e

Win

d of

fsho

re PV

Capital costs O&M Fuel CO2 CO2 transport and storage Costs of backup capacity Costs of power balancing

EUR`2012/MWh

87,8

64,4

123,1

97,5 89,4 97,6107,4 103,5

125,1

83,6

103,6

159,9

89,7

Electricity generation structure in 2030

13

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

200.0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

TWh

Fotowoltaika

EL_geotermalne

EL_Wiatr_Morze

EL_Wiatr_Ląd

EC_Biogaz

EL i EC_Biomasa

EC_Gaz

EC_WK_Nowe

EC_WK_Stare

EC_Przemysłowe

EL_Wodne

EL_Jądrowe

EL_WK_Nowe

EL_WK_Stare

EL_WB_Nowe

EL_WB_Stare

Lignite (old)

Hard coal (old)

Nuclear

Lignite (new)

Hard coal (new)

HydroAutoproducers CHP

Hard coal CHP (old)

Hard coal CHP (new)Gas CHP (new)

Biomass

Wind onshoreWind offshore

Photovoltaic

Biogas

Source: Update of study of electricity generation costs with nuclear, coal, gas power plants and RES, EMA, April 2013


14

Hard coal52%Lignite

32%

RES11%

Natural gas3%

Oil2%

2012

Hard coal30%

Lignite23%

Nuclear19%

RES20%

Natural gas7%

Oil1% 2030

Electricity generation structure (energy mix)

Source: Update of forecast of fuels and energy demand, EMA, June 2013


Three candidate sites for the first NPP location identified

• On 25th of November 2011 PGE announced three candidate sites (in alphabetical order: Choczewo, Gąski, Żarnowiec)

• PGE and MoE continue information and communication campaign in all three locations and neighbouring areas

• Financing & Investment analyses on-going by PGE• Letter of intent was signed between PGE, ENEA,TAURON, KGHM to set up joint

company which could be future operator and licensee. • Site Characterization contractor was selected in January 2013


Pl. Trzech Krzyży 3/500-507 Warsaw

tel +48 22 693 50 00fax +48 22 693 40 46

email [email protected] www.mg.gov.pl

Ministry of Economy

Thank you for your attention

Nuclear Energy Department

Polish Nuclear Power Program · PDF filePolish Nuclear Power Program Rationale to introduce nuclear powerin Poland: 1.assuring long-term security of electricity supply 2.maintaining

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