POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION ...

POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT

REHABILITATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN

BY

Naveed Yousaf Sandhu

Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Syed Shabib-ul-Hasan

Department of Public Administration

University of Karachi

Karachi - 2017

ii



BY


A Dissertation submitted to Department of Public Administration, University

of Karachi in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree

of

Doctor of Philosophy



Karachi - 2017

iii

BOARD OF ADVANCED STUDIES & RESEARCH


DECLARATION

I, Mr. Naveed Yousaf Sandhu s/o Mr. Muhammad Yousaf Sandhu hereby declare

that the thesis titled ―Policy Options for Post Conflict Rehabilitation in North

Waziristan‖ submitted by me for the award of Ph.D degree in the Department of Public

Administration is my own work and no part has been plagiarized from anywhere. Proper

references are cited wherever necessary and appropriate credit has been given where the

work from others has been quoted.

I understand that the University reserves the right to cancel the degree if any of the

above declaration is proved false before or even after the award of degree.


Candidate for Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D)


University of Karachi, Pakistan

01 November, 2017

iv

BOARD OF ADVANCED STUDIES & RESEARCH


CERTIFICATE

I have gone through the thesis titled ―Policy Options for Post Conflict

Rehabilitation in North Waziristan‖ submitted to the Board of Advanced Studies &

Research, university of Karachi by Mr. Naveed Yousaf Sandhu for the award of degree

of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) in Public Administration and certify that to the best of

my knowledge it contains no plagiarized material.

Prof. Dr. Syed Shabib-ul-Hasan

Research Supervisor


University of Karachi, Pakistan

………… November, 2017

v

DEDICATION

―To all those who made supreme sacrifices for peace and humanity‖

vi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

It is indeed Allah Almighty‘s great blessing (who deserves all praises alone),

which enabled me to prove equal to the research task.

The completion of the research is indebted to exclusive excellence of researcher‘s

extremely enterprising and inestimably dynamic Research Supervisor Professor Dr. Syed

Shabib-ul-Hasan, who matured my approach towards the research project and also kept the

research in bounds.

I shall also remain grateful to Dr. Shahzad Hussain, and Dr. Noor-ul-Hadi,

National Defence University Islamabad, who extended inexorable academic guidance to

keep the efforts on right track for completion of the research objectives. I shall always

remain obliged for indefatigable academic and research assistance rendered by Mr. Kashif

Zaheer Kamboh, Chairman Youth Association of Pakistan.

To complement the Maslow‘s Hierarchy of need theory, I am thankful to my

parent organization for fulfilling my basic needs, my parents for their prayers and my wife

for absolute support.

I acknowledge the inspiration of my children Saad and Rafay. The task could have

been much more difficult without their continuous pull and push.

I would like to thank my office Superintendent Mr. Rahim Dad Khattak and

Assistant Mr. Javed Ahmed for their cooperation in typing and compilation of the research

work.


vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgement ................................................................................................................ vi

Table of Contents ................................................................................................................vii

List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... xiv

List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xvi

List of Graphs ................................................................................................................. xviii

List of Annexures ............................................................................................................... xix

List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................ xx

Abstract (English) .............................................................................................................. xxi

Abstract (Urdu) ............................................................................................................... xxiii

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1

Statement of the Problem ............................................................................................... 4

Significance of Study .................................................................................................... 5

Research Questions ....................................................................................................... 6

Research Objectives ....................................................................................................... 6

Delimitations of Study .................................................................................................. 7

Scheme of Study ........................................................................................................... 7

Chapter 1: NORTH WAZIRISTAN; AN OVERVIEW ................................................. 10

1.1 Landmass ....................................................................................................................... 12

1.2 Water Sources .............................................................................................................. 13

1.2.1 Rivers ...................................................................................................................... 13

1.2.2 Seasonal Nullahs ..................................................................................................... 14

1.2.3 Springs ..................................................................................................................... 14

1.2.4 Dams and Reservoirs ............................................................................................... 14

1.3 Agriculture .................................................................................................................... 15

1.4 Livestock ...................................................................................................................... 16

viii

1.5 Forests ........................................................................................................................... 17

1.6 Minerals ........................................................................................................................ 17

1.7 Communication Infrastructure ...................................................................................... 19

1.8 Population ..................................................................................................................... 19

1.8.1 Population Distribution ........................................................................................... 21

1.8.2 Utmanzai Wazirs and Mehsuds ............................................................................... 22

1.8.3 Dawars ..................................................................................................................... 23

1.8.4 Saidgai ..................................................................................................................... 24

1.8.5 Gurbaz ..................................................................................................................... 24

1.8.6 Kharsin .................................................................................................................... 25

1.9 The Leadership .............................................................................................................. 25

1.9.1 The Maliks ............................................................................................................... 25

1.9.2 Religious Leadership ............................................................................................... 26

1.10 Politico-Legal System ................................................................................................ 26

1.10.1 Political System ..................................................................................................... 26

1.10.2 Legal System ......................................................................................................... 27

1.11 Administrative System ............................................................................................... 30

1.12 Law Enforcement System .......................................................................................... 31

1.12.1 Political Force ....................................................................................................... 31

1.12.2 Frontier Corps ....................................................................................................... 32

1.12.3 Pakistan Army ....................................................................................................... 32

1.13 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 32

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................... 33

2.1 Parental Paradigm ........................................................................................................ 34

2.2 Historical Perspective ................................................................................................... 34

2.3 Studied Variables ......................................................................................................... 40

2.3.1 Terrorism ................................................................................................................. 40

2.3.2 Civic Services ......................................................................................................... 46

ix

2.3.3 Poor Governance ..................................................................................................... 51

2.3.4 Social Restoration ................................................................................................... 54

2.3.5 Rehabilitation and Economic Recovery .................................................................. 56

2.4 Research Gap ................................................................................................................ 59

2.8 Chapter Summary ......................................................................................................... 59

Chapter 3: CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .......................... 60

3.1 The Concepts ................................................................................................................ 61

3.1.1 Tribal Culture .......................................................................................................... 61

3.1.2 Talibanization .......................................................................................................... 64

3.1.3 Conflict .................................................................................................................... 67

3.1.4 Rehabilitation .......................................................................................................... 71

3.2 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................ 75

3.2.1 Social Engineering .................................................................................................. 76

3.2.2 Application of Sociotechnics .................................................................................. 78

3.2.3 Systems Thinking Approach ................................................................................... 80

3.2.4 Interplay of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach ......................... 83

3.3 Hypothesized Relationships ......................................................................................... 88

3.3.1 Causes of Conflict ................................................................................................... 88

3.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy ............................................................................................ 88

3.4 Chapter Summary ......................................................................................................... 88

Chapter 4: METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................... 90

4.1 Research Design ........................................................................................................... 91

4.2 Universe of Study ......................................................................................................... 92

4.2.1 Miranshah Sub-Division ......................................................................................... 92

4.2.2 Mirali Sub-Division ................................................................................................ 92

4.2.3 Razmak Sub-Division ............................................................................................ 92

4.3 Research Variables ....................................................................................................... 92

4.4 Sampling Technique ..................................................................................................... 93

x

4.5 Sample Size .................................................................................................................. 94

4.6 Sample Rationale .......................................................................................................... 95

4.6.1 Maliks and Religious Leaders ................................................................................. 95

4.6.2 Displaced Persons .................................................................................................. 95

4.6.3 Business Community .............................................................................................. 95

4.6.4 Experts and Students .............................................................................................. 95

4.6.5 Government Officials ............................................................................................. 96

4.7 Data Collection ............................................................................................................. 96

4.7.1 Data Sources ............................................................................................................ 96

4.7.2 Collection Tools ..................................................................................................... 96

4.7.3 Collection Process .................................................................................................. 98

4.7.4 Problems Encountered ............................................................................................ 99

4.8 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................... 99

4.9 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 100

Chapter 5: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ..................................................................... 101

5.1 Demographic Profiling ............................................................................................... 102

5.1.1 Respondents‘ Age ................................................................................................. 103

5.1.2 Respondents‘ Gender ........................................................................................... 103

5.1.3 Respondents‘ Education ....................................................................................... 104

5.1.4 Respondents‘ Profession ...................................................................................... 105

5.1.5 Respondents‘ Residence ....................................................................................... 106

5.2 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 107

5.2.1 Normality Test ....................................................................................................... 107

5.2.1.1. Causes of Conflict .......................................................................................... 107

5.2.1.2. Rehabilitation Strategy ................................................................................... 108

5.2.2 Uni-dimensionality Test (Exploratory Factor Analysis) ....................................... 110

5.2.2.1. Causes of Conflict .......................................................................................... 111

xi

5.2.2.2. Rehabilitation Strategy ................................................................................... 120

5.2.3 Reliability Test ..................................................................................................... 130

5.3 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 131

Chapter 6: INFERENTIAL STATISTICS ..................................................................... 133

6.1 Frequency Analysis .................................................................................................... 134

6.1.1 Causes of Conflict ................................................................................................. 134

6.1.1.1 Conflict (DV) ................................................................................................. 135

6.1.1.2 Terrorism (IV) ................................................................................................. 136

6.1.1.3 Lack of Civic Services (IV) ........................................................................... 138

6.1.1.4 Poor Governance (IV) ..................................................................................... 140

6.1.2 Rehabilitation Strategy .......................................................................................... 141

6.1.2.1 Rehabilitation Framework (DV) .................................................................... 141

6.1.2.2 Social Restoration (IV) .................................................................................... 143

6.1.2.3 Economic Recovery (IV) ............................................................................... 145

6.1.2.4 Governance Reforms (IV) ............................................................................... 146

6.2 Correlation Analysis ................................................................................................... 148


6.2.1.1 TM – CT Correlation ...................................................................................... 149

6.2.1.2 PG – CT Correlation ...................................................................................... 149

6.2.1.3 CS – CT Correlation ....................................................................................... 150


6.2.2.1 SR – RF Correlation ....................................................................................... 151

6.2.2.2 ER – RF Correlation ....................................................................................... 151

6.2.2.3 GR – RF Correlation ...................................................................................... 152

6.3 Hypotheses Testing .................................................................................................... 152


6.3.1.1 Alternative Hypotheses .................................................................................. 152

xii

6.3.1.2 Null Hypotheses ............................................................................................. 152

6.3.1.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion ................................................................... 152


6.3.2.1 Alternative Hypotheses .................................................................................. 154

6.3.2.2 Null Hypotheses ............................................................................................. 155

6.3.2.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion ................................................................... 155

6.3.3 Hypotheses Test Summary .................................................................................... 157

6.4 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 157

Chapter 7: REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR NORTH WAZIRISTAN .... 159

7.1 Causes of Conflict ...................................................................................................... 161

7.2 Contemporary Rehabilitation Models ........................................................................ 164

7.2.1 Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model .......................................................................... 166

7.2.1.1 Humanitarian Assistance Phase ..................................................................... 167

7.2.1.2 Resettlement Phase .......................................................................................... 168

7.2.1.3 Early Recovery Phase ..................................................................................... 168

7.2.1.4 Socioeconomic Development Phase ............................................................... 169

7.2.2 FATA Rehabilitation Model ................................................................................. 169

7.2.2.1 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) ............................................. 170

7.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Model ....................................................................................... 170

7.3 Proposed Rehabilitation Strategy ............................................................................... 171

7.3.1 Rehabilitation Dimensions .................................................................................... 173

7.3.2 Rehabilitation Framework ..................................................................................... 175

7.3.2.1 Rehabilitation Management ........................................................................... 175

7.3.2.2 Rehabilitation Content ..................................................................................... 176

7.3.2.3 Rehabilitation Principles ................................................................................ 177

7.3.2.4 Rehabilitation Framework ............................................................................... 178

7.3.2.5 Framework Flow ............................................................................................ 179

xiii

7.3.2.6 Policy Measures .............................................................................................. 181

7.4 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 186

Chapter 8: CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 187

8.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 188

8.2 Future Research .......................................................................................................... 190

8.3 Possible Limitations ................................................................................................... 191

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 192

ANNEXURES ................................................................................................................. 206

xiv

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Land Usage ........................................................................................................... 15

Table 2: Veterinary Facilities ............................................................................................. 16

Table 3: Mining Activity Year 2014 - 2015 ........................................................................ 18

Table 4: Communication Infrastructure ............................................................................. 19

Table 5: Population Distribution ........................................................................................ 21

Table 6: Research Variables ................................................................................................ 93

Table 7: Sample Distribution ............................................................................................. 94

Table 8: Cronbach‘s Alpha Standards ................................................................................. 98

Table 9: Cronbach‘s Alpha Values ..................................................................................... 98

Table 10: Respondents‘ Age ............................................................................................. 103

Table 11: Respondents‘ Gender ........................................................................................ 103

Table 12: Respondents‘ Education ................................................................................... 104

Table 13: Respondents‘ Profession ................................................................................... 105

Table 14: Respondents‘ Residence ................................................................................... 106

Table 15: Normality Test; Causes of Conflict .................................................................. 107

Table 16: Normality Test; Rehabilitation Strategy ........................................................... 109

Table 17: KMO and Bartlett‘s Test; Causes of Conflict ................................................... 112

Table 18: Factor Extraction; Causes of Conflict ............................................................... 113

Table 19: Parallel Analysis; Causes of Conflict ................................................................ 114

Table 20: Pattern Matrix; Causes of Conflict .................................................................... 115

Table 21: Structure Matrix; Causes of Conflict ................................................................ 116

Table 22: Factor Labeling; Causes of Conflict ................................................................. 118

Table 23: KMO and Bartlett‘s Test; Rehabilitation Strategy ............................................ 121

Table 24: Factor Extraction; Rehabilitation Strategy ....................................................... 122

Table 25: Parallel Analysis; Rehabilitation Strategy ....................................................... 123

Table 26: Pattern Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy ........................................................... 124

xv

Table 27: Structure Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy ........................................................ 126

Table 28: Factor Labelling; Rehabilitation Strategy ........................................................ 127

Table 29: Cronbach‘s Alpha Coefficient .......................................................................... 130

Table 30: Frequency Analysis; Conflict ........................................................................... 135

Table 31: Frequency Analysis; Terrorism ........................................................................ 137

Table 32: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services ................................................... 138

Table 33: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance ............................................................ 140

Table 34: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework .............................................. 142

Table 35: Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration .......................................................... 143

Table 36: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery ....................................................... 145

Table 37: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms ...................................................... 146

Table 38: Pearson‘s Correlation; Causes of Conflict ....................................................... 148

Table 39: Pearson‘s Correlation; Rehabilitation Strategy ................................................ 150

Table 40: Regression Model Summary; Causes of Conflict ............................................ 153

Table 41: ANOVA Model; Causes of Conflict ................................................................ 153

Table 42: Regression Coefficients; Causes of Conflict ................................................... 153

Table 43: Regression Model Summary; Rehabilitation Strategy ..................................... 155

Table 44: ANOVA Model; Rehabilitation Strategy ......................................................... 155

Table 45: Regression Coefficients; Rehabilitation Strategy ............................................ 156

Table 46: Hypotheses Summary ...................................................................................... 157

xvi

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Karlani Genealogy ............................................................................................. 20

Figure 2: Legal Provisions ................................................................................................. 28

Figure 3: Layout of Legal Setup ........................................................................................ 28

Figure 4: Judicial Procedures Civil Cases .......................................................................... 29

Figure 5: Judicial Procedures Criminal Cases .................................................................... 29

Figure 6: Layout of Administrative Setup .......................................................................... 30

Figure 7: Law Enforcement Agencies ................................................................................ 31

Figure 8: Research Model; Causes of conflict .................................................................... 87

Figure 9: Research Model; Rehabilitation Strategy ........................................................... 87

Figure 10: Model; Causes of conflict ................................................................................ 162

Figure 11: Conflict Cycle ................................................................................................. 163

Figure 12: Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model .................................................................... 167

Figure 13: Strategic Pillars FATA Reconstruction Model ............................................... 170

Figure 14: FATA Secretariat Rehabilitation Model ......................................................... 171

Figure 15: Rehabilitation Framework; Popular Dimensions ............................................ 173

Figure 16: Proposed Rehabilitation Framework .............................................................. 179

xvii

LIST OF GRAPHS

Graph 1: Extracted Factors; Causes of Conflict ............................................................... 114

Graph 2: Extracted Factors; Rehabilitation Strategy ....................................................... 123

Graph 3: Frequency Analysis; Conflict ............................................................................ 136

Graph 4: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services .................................................... 138

Graph 5: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance ............................................................. 139

Graph 6: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework ............................................... 141

Graph 7; Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration ........................................................... 143

Graph 8: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery ........................................................ 144

Graph 9: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms ....................................................... 146

xviii

LIST OF ANNEXURES

Annexure A: Agency Geographic Layout ....................................................................... 206

Annexure B: Minerals Map .............................................................................................. 207

Annexure C: Important Population Centers ..................................................................... 208

Annexure D: Population Distribution .............................................................................. 209

Annexure E: Connectivity Infrastructure ......................................................................... 210

Annexure F: Genealogy of Utmanzai Wazirs .................................................................. 212

Annexure G: Genealogy of Dawars ................................................................................. 213

Annexure H: Eminent Leaders ......................................................................................... 214

Annexure I: Religious Personalities ................................................................................. 221

Annexure J: Government Agreement ............................................................................... 223

Annexure K: Constitutional Status of FATA ................................................................... 225

Annexure L: Agency Administration ............................................................................... 227

Annexure M: Questionnaire- Policy Options for Post Conflict Rehabilitation in NWA . 228

Annexure N: Important Madrassas .................................................................................. 237

Annexure O: Educational Facilities .................................................................................. 241

Annexure P: Healthcare Facilities ................................................................................... 245

Annexure Q: FATA Secretariat Notification ................................................................... 248

Annexure R: Citizen Loss Compensation Program (Flow Chart) ................................... 249

xix

LIST OF ACRONYMS

FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas

NWA North Waziristan Agency

FATA SDP FATA Sustainable Development Plan

NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

PCNA Post Crises Needs Assessment

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

PA Political Agent

APA Assistant Political Agent

PNTs Political Naib Tehsildars

FCR Frontier Crimes Regulations

F.R Frontier Region

LEAs Law Enforcement Agencies

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhawa

S.R.O Statutory Notification

MNA Member National Assembly

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

FDA FATA Development Authority

OGDC Oil and Gas Development Authority

NOC No Objection Certificate

BMG Bannu- Miranshah- Ghulam Khan

IMU Islamic movement of Uzbekistan

ETIM East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement

xx

ADP Annual Development Program

SMART Specific, Measureable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely

UNICEF United Nations Children‘s Education Fund

UNDP United Nations Development Program

USAID United States Agency for International Development

BHU Basic Health Unit

RHC Rural Health Center

FWO Frontier Works Organization

COIN Counter Insurgency

RRU Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit

RTF Return Task Force

FSRRS FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy

NFRI Non Food Relief Items

FRC FATA Reforms Committee

TDPs Temporary Displaced Persons

IDP Internally Displaced Persons

DM District Magistrate

SDM Sub-Divisional Magistrate

xxi

ABSTRACT

North Waziristan had historically been acting as a catalyst for geostrategic changes

occurred in Afghanistan especially during the ‗Great Games‘. Following the period of

relative calmness after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan; the fateful incident of 11th

September 2001 again pushed the agency into regional geostrategic wrangling. United

States led military campaign in Afghanistan during 2002, triggered an unending chain of

actions leading to a fresh cultural war and process of social disintegration in the area. The

terrorists‘ infiltration in hideouts across North Waziristan; established during Afghan jihad

(1979-1991), further complicated the sociopolitical matrix of the agency. The succeeding

years witnessed an unprecedented wave of terrorism which destroyed the sociopolitical

institutions and physical infrastructures in the area. The decade long miseries of locals

ended when triumphant military operation ‗Zarb-e-Azb‘ obliterated the terrorists‘ hideouts

from North Waziristan and set the stage for non-kinetic initiatives to revive and restore

socioeconomic and politico-administrative institutions in the agency.

Undertaking the research project in North Waziristan has never been a soft

seafaring. Extremely conservative cultural values and inadequate accessibility make the

task of amassing requisite data, contacting authentic stakeholders and recording of actual

feelings exceedingly difficult. The research has been carried out while considering the said

sociocultural ground realities and data collection limitations. The researcher‘s field

experience of government service, operating knowledge and personal observations of the

local environments have provided the needed expertise to accomplish this difficult task.

The research used non-probability sampling design to collect relevant information needed

to explore the causes of conflict and to suggest post conflict rehabilitation strategy. For

this purpose, 503 respondents from various segments of Waziristan community living

inside or outside the agency were approached by using close ended questionnaire through

survey method. Using multiple regression analysis, the study found that there is a positive

and significant relationship between the hypothesized relationships. This empirically

evidence based on the conflict and rehabilitation theories verify the applicability of social

engineering theory and system‘s thinking approach in the North Waziristan region.

To sum-up the study concluded that rehabilitation framework based on perceptive

planning and dynamic execution mechanism can optimally assist to revolutionize the

socioeconomic fortune of the conflict ridden North Waziristan for a better and peaceful

xxii

region with focus on human development. The research has also offered certain important

policy recommendations for social, economic, political and institutional restoration in the

post conflict environments of the North Waziristan.

xxiii

xxiv

1

INTRODUCTION

2

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

The distinctive geographic locality and linkage to the historical developments of

the Great Game and the Cold War eons affix immense geostrategic significance to

turbulent North Waziristan. Being important part of nucleus region between Oxus and

Jumna, the area has always been an epicenter of decisive events in the history of mankind‖

(Toynbee, 1961). The agency because of its strategic significance is regarded as ―the most

sensitive area in Pakistan and indeed in South Asia‖ (Ahmad, 1997). The Waziristan area

has been described by the historians as the ―land of high and difficult hills, deep and

rugged defiles, brave and hardy people, in their way as independent and patriotic, and in

the presence of the common enemy, hardly less united than the famous compatriots of

Tell‖ (Oliver, 1800).

The agency and its adjoining tribal areas with rich socio-cultural heritage and

undeniable strategic significance, characterized by Toynbee (1961) as the ‗cross-road of

civilizations‘ have largely been ignored by successive governments while executing

socioeconomic development programs. The British Indian government after introducing

an indirect political administrative system through Political Agents; transformed these ill-

fated areas into a buffer between the Czarist Russia and India (General Staff Transcripts,

1908). Subject area remained part of geostrategic settings of ―The Great Games,‖ first

between the Great Britain and the former Soviet Union during the 18th

and 19th

centuries,

and subsequently during the Cold War era during 20th

century. Later during the 20th

century, the inhabitants of this area remained actively involved in ―Jihad‖ against former

Soviet Union and the agency earned reputation of marshaling area to fight occupation.

During Afghan Jihad, the United States ensured all types of uninterrupted assistance

including supply of arms and ammunition to the Mujahedeen with North Waziristan as an

important training camp.

The culture of militancy however did not cease to exist even after Soviet

withdrawal following decade long unsuccessful war. The post war environments in the

agency witnessed four types of well trained and fully armed splinter groups to include

Muhajireen (refugees), Mujahedeen (freedom fighters), foreigners (Arabs, Tajiks and

Uzbeks, etc.) and local religious supporters of Mujahedeen (Marwat, 2005). It is important

to mention that majority of the foreign fighters were ‗believed to be‘ Islamic radicals with

the stated ideology of doing the same to United States; what it had done to the Soviets, for

3

her support to Israel against the Palestinians (H. Rehman, personal communication, March

17, 2017). The agency during subsequent years; slowly but gradually, earned another sole

distinction of a ‗safe haven‘ (Johnson and Mason, 2008) for foreign fighters of different

colour and creed. These foreigners were either not welcomed by their native countries or

had decided to stay after participating in the Afghan Jihad. Resultantly an assortment of

Afghans, Arabs and Central Asians along with host of other nationals was developed; who

over the years sustained themselves with the help of local population. These groups over

the years either earned or won the local support and thereafter exploited the youth and

economic weakness of the agency; turning it into an area most infected by numerous

terrorist groups operating across the globe (Burki, 2010). The situation got worsened after

the awful event of 9/11, when influence of Taliban and host of other terrorist groups grew

rapidly and the North Waziristan put a question mark on peace and stability of the

Pakistan (Yousaf, Khan, & Hussain, 2018).

The situation got further complicated after United States led ―Operation Enduring

Freedom‖ when deposed Talibans and their foreign supporters retreated into the Pak-

Afghan bordering areas thus making the agency vulnerable to the infiltrating militant

elements (Salman, 2012). The extremely porous international border ―Durand Line‖,

running along the mountain peaks, shaped the international milieu where the agency was

termed as safe haven of terrorists. The terrorists not only pursued the local population for

providing them the ―local youth‖ to work for terrorist groups but also demanded cash for

their sustenance (Burki, 2010). The historically precarious state machinery failed to meet

the challenge and lost the control of the situation and virtually the state institutions except

military and frontier corps ceased to function. Consequently, the vital social institution of

tribal Jirga was destroyed and pro-government Maliks were killed (N. Wazir, personal

communication, October 25, 2016). The situation remained so until military operation

―Zarb-e-Azb‖ successfully flushed the terrorists out of their hide-outs.

The culture of militancy along with different factors has been largely responsible

for destruction of the sociocultural values of local society, reversing the wheel of

development and infringement of the sense of security. The highly porous and un-

defendable border; prone to foreign infiltration acceded to those who disturbed the law and

order situation and destroyed the socioeconomic conditions of the agency thus breeding

the phenomenon of militancy (Yousaf, et al., 2018). Subsequent to the environments of

militancy outburst, the state of Pakistan opted for military operation ―Zarb-e-Azb‖ to re-

4

establish the writ of the state and to restore social order. The local population browbeaten

by the bloodshed being committed by terrorists; willingly became TDPs (Temporarily

Displaced Persons) to facilitate the conduct of military operation. The conflict however

caused enormous loss to the local population (TDPs) as the cultivated lands became

desolate, businesses destroyed and their assets put at risk. However, successful military

operation dismantled the terrorist‘s networks by killing or forcing them to flee from their

decades old hideouts. In post terrorism driven conflict settings the state is obliged to

embark upon a whole encompassing rehabilitation and reconstruction strategy. The

strategy should provide an execution framework in line with the local tribal aspirations.

The rehabilitation framework should not only focus on re-settlement of TDPs but also

provide mechanism for social re-integration of those previously involved in terrorism. The

framework must also suggest measures for early as well as long-term economic recovery

for human development.

Statement of the Problem

The successive governments except using the area for foreign policy objectives

ignored the socioeconomic wellbeing and political development of the North Waziristan

Agency (Yousaf, et al., 2018). The exploitation and neglect consequently resulted into the

culture of militancy; a reflection of socio-economic deprivation, invalid politico-

administrative structures and Frontier Crimes Regulations (Haider, 2009). Paucity of

financial resources coupled with deep-rooted problems; affixed with the geographical and

physical barriers, wobbly law and order situation and tribal cultural restrictions, left the

agency inhabitants poorly educated and deprived of essential social amenities including

drinking water, adequate healthcare and sanitation (Burki, 2010). The absence of basic

amenities of life induced the sense of deprivation among local population. The

phenomenon as theorized in ―Breaking the Conflict Trap‖ (Elliot, Herger, Hoeffler,

Queorel, and Sambanis, 2003) created the leaders and organizations investing in skills and

equipment only useful for violence. The resultant organizations transformed the fragile

agency atmosphere into the conflict that worsened the socioeconomic conditions of the

area. These terrorist groups continued to function with the state like freedom until the state

intervened by launching military operation ―Al - Mizan‖ (Salman. 2012). Although

military operation has successfully eliminated the terrorist‘s sanctuaries exited mostly

around Mirali, Miranshah, Boya and in Shawal valley but the military success alone

5

cannot address the deep-rooted socioeconomic and political problems of the agency. In the

post ―Zarb-e-Azb‖ environments the dilemma of re-settlement of TDPs and

socioeconomic rehabilitation; when whole of the tribal social system is in disarray, has

presented yet another challenge.

The absence of a comprehensive rehabilitation policy framework may allow the

sleeping sympathizers of terrorism to exploit the traditional tribal apprehensions about

socioeconomic developments thus consuming huge budgetary allocations without leaving

any positive imprints on the socioeconomic matrix of the turbulent agency (Afshar et al.,

2008; Aziz., 2008; Alam., 2012; Ahsan., 2013). It is therefore imperative to explore and

examine different dimensions of rehabilitation activities in the post conflict environments.

For the same reason, this research has been carried out to explore different policy options

for post conflict rehabilitation initiatives in the North Waziristan while investigating the

key causes of conflict (role of terrorism, lack of civic services, poor governance) and

policy options for post conflict rehabilitation strategy (to include social restoration,

economic recovery and governance reforms). Based on above discussion, comprehensive

literature review and logical understanding, a detailed framework for post conflict

rehabilitation with elaborate execution mechanism has been outlined on the principle of

participatory development with locals‘ ownership. The rehabilitation framework will also

optimize the socioeconomic utilization of inflow of development funds; coming from

number of national and international developing partners, for development of human

capital.

Significance of Study

The research will suggest certain policy options for post conflict rehabilitation in

North Waziristan while introducing the academic world otherwise an inaccessible, rugged

and mountainous terrain of the agency including its landmass, population, and political

system. The research is significant in establishing the linkage between state of terrorism

driven conflict and historical events of the recent past. The research based on locals‘

feedback will forecast important policy options for a comprehensive rehabilitation strategy

in the post conflict environments of the area. The study through information acquired from

field research will also proffer an effective execution framework in accordance with the

6

wishes of the local population, traditions and culture that are exceedingly essential for

socioeconomic growth and political restructuring.

The research findings will provide policy guidelines to the government for

instituting post conflict rehabilitation measures in the subject area in particular and FATA

in general (Sandhu, 2014). Academically, the study will also offer a platform for future

researchers of social sciences to explore and suggest rehabilitation strategies in post

conflict settings that are traditionalist and highly conservative in nature.

Research Questions

The research has investigated following research questions to suggest policy

options for post conflict rehabilitation while seeking confirmation of the conclusions;

regarding emergence of conflict, drawn from literature review:

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism?

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the lack of civic services?

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and poor governance?

Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social

restoration?

Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and

economic recovery?


governance reforms?

Research Objectives

Research Purpose

The major objective of the research is to proffer viable policy options for socio-

economic and politico-administrative rehabilitation of the North Waziristan agency in the

post conflict setting. The research also aims at identifying the rehabilitation scenarios

based on the local environment. While outlining the policy options for social, economic

and political developments, the research will explore the under mentioned important

objectives.

7

Research Objectives

To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.

To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic

services.

To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and poor governance.

To investigate the significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and

social restoration.


economic recovery.


governance reforms.

Delimitations of Study

Delimitations mean the limitations deliberately imposed on design followed during

the course of the research whereas the limitations refer to restrictions beyond the control

of researcher (Rudestam and Newton, 2015). During the course of research delimitation

was made by studying only one case of post conflict area namely the North Waziristan.

This delimitation was intentionally imposed as the research task was beyond the capacity

of one researcher in terms of time, scope, quantity of data and above all peculiar security

situation. However during the process certain parallels were drawn with reconstruction

programs adopted by Sri Lankan government to draw generalized policy guidelines.

Scheme of Study

The study in hand includes Introduction and eight other chapters. The introductory

part ―chapter 0‖ gives the statement of the research problem as well as the significance of

the research. The research objectives defined in this chapter served as the foundation for

subsequent research.

The chapter 1 ―North Waziristan; An Overview‖ describes important geographic

features of the agency. The chapter briefly elaborates the hydro, agrarian, livestock and

forest potentials along with an account of unexplored mineral‘s potential of the agency.

The demographic structures including population distribution of the Waziristan tribes have

8

been discussed in this chapter. This chapter also gives a detailed account of eminent

political and religious leadership of the local tribes. The chapter also offers a brief account

of the agency political and administrative setup for better understanding of complexities

existed in the research area.

Chapter 2 covers a detailed account of available literature relating to the research

problem. This chapter in the backdrop of historical as well as cultural pretext provides an

insight of decades old terrorism driven conflict in the area. The literature covering

emergence of Talibans and the impact of recently witnessed wave of terrorism on

socioeconomic and cultural aspects of the area have been explored. This chapter also

reviews the available literature on governance aspects as well as reconstruction of conflict-

ridden societies. In the end, this chapter gives hypothesized relationships for investigating

the causes of conflict and rehabilitation framework in post conflict environments in the

subject area.

Chapter 3 of the study gives major contours of the conceptual and theoretical

frameworks of the research to investigate the research problem. This chapter explains the

Social Engineering theory including its different levels of application. The chapter also

explains the Systems Thinking approach before discussing the interplay of both the

theories; social engineering and systems thinking approach in the context of terrorism

driven state of conflict before identifying the popular dimensions of the corrective

mechanism; rehabilitation strategy. However, before theoretical certain important

socioeconomic concepts including Pashtun culture, Terrorism, Conflict and Rehabilitation

have been described in the context of the study.

Chapter 4 of the dissertation gives a detailed account of research methodology

adopted during the course of research. The chapter having identified the research questions

studies the important methodological aspects to include universe of research as well as

sampling size and rational. Moreover, this chapter discusses different techniques applied

and problems encountered during the data collection and data analysis. In-addition, the

limitations and de-limitations of the research have also been covered under this chapter of

methodology.

Chapter 5 pertains to the empirical analysis of the data collected through

questionnaires and feedback from different government agencies operating in the area

under study. This chapter gives the results based on statistical analysis to ascertain

9

authenticity of the collected data. The chapter subsequently also explains how the

validated data has been subjected to exploratory factor analysis to identify the relevant

dimensions for further analysis.

Chapter 6 discusses the measured frequencies of identified factors covering both of

the research dimensions to include causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy. The

chapter also gives details of the correlation analysis; Pearson‘s correlation to confirm

mutual relationship of both the research dimensions. This chapter subsequently also

examines the identified research hypotheses to draw relevant research conclusions by

hypothesis testing.

Chapter 7 explains popular perception about the causes of conflict generation as

well as the conflict cycle. Next section of this chapter describes contemporary

rehabilitation models to include Sri Lankan rehabilitation model and the FATA secretariat

FATA Sustainable Return and Reconstruction Strategy to ascertain the importance of

various rehabilitation aspects. The chapter also elaborates the measured popular

dimensions of rehabilitation content before suggesting a rehabilitation framework for post

conflict environments. Later part of the chapter offers certain important policy options to

undertake the rehabilitation work in the conflict ridden North Waziristan agency.

Chapter 8; the last chapter of the research concludes the study while giving review

of the research project. Before concluding the research, this chapter also suggests possible

research dimensions including possible limitations that may confront the future

researchers of the social sciences.

10

CHAPTER 1

NORTH WAZIRISTAN; AN OVERVIEW

11

NORTH WAZIRISTAN; AN OVERVIEW

The Waziristan for its peculiar geography; the Frontier‘s Switzerland (Oliver, 1800)

bears immense strategic importance for any geopolitical transformation occurring in the

Afghanistan. The Wazir and Mehsud tribes from North Waziristan; bordering the Afghan

provinces of Khost, Paktika and Paktia, have been playing central role during the past

dynastic struggles in Afghanistan. Nadir Khan for instance returned from France with the

implicit support of British to seize the throne from then Afghan King Amanullah. Nadir

Khan‘s struggle of seizure succeeded only due to the help of warring group raised from

Waziristan battle hardy tribes. Adolf Hitler during the year 1938, planned to foment

disturbance in the Waziristan through his links with Amin Hussaini, an ex-Mufti of

Jerusalem. The Mufti assigned the task of infesting rebellion in Waziristan and restoration

of King Amanullah to his Syrian relative famous as the ―Shami Pir‖ or Syrian Pir in

Waziristan (Aziz K. , 2007) .

North Waziristan Agency formally was established as a separate administrative

unit with Headquarter at Miranshah in 1910. The agency with an estimated area of 2310

square miles; located at 32.45 - 33.15 degrees north and 69.30 -70.40 degrees east. The

Kohat and Bannu districts lay on the north and eastern boundary of the agency while

Shaktu stream runs in the south entering Bannu district with its head at Shauidar. The

boundary from Shauidar follows the eastern watershed of the Shawal valley to Dar-e-

Nashtar Sar before turning north-east along the Durand Line to the land of Kabul and

Buland khels (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908). The geographical alignment of the

agency boundaries is placed at annexure A.

The agency consists of four fertile and hefty valleys including the Lower Kurram

valley in the north; between Kurram agency on upper reaches of river Kurram and Bannu

district; the Kaitu valley, the most fertile Tochi valley and the Khaisora valley in south.

Two barren plains; Shertalla and Danday plains with each covering an area of about 30

square miles lay between the Kaitu and Tochi valleys. The Spairaga plateau; similar but

smaller than Shertalla, stretches between the valleys namely Kurram and Kaitu. The

barren hills with Shauidar as the loftiest peak at the western part of the Khaisora separate

the four valleys. These hills are generally composed of Eocene sandstone conglomerate

having surface covered with the crumbling soil that fertilizes the valleys through flood

silting (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908).

12

The weather conditions are hot in summers and cold during winters. The winter

spans from October to April with mercury falling below freezing point at places with high

altitude. December, January and February are generally the coldest with mean temperature

oscillating between maximum 10 and minimum minus 2 degree centigrade (Geography

and Habitat, 2015). Moreover, the summer arriving in May and lasts till September with

June as the warmest when mercury rises slightly over 40 degree centigrade.

1.1 Landmass

The agency landmass is mostly rugged sprinkled with steep hills with varying

heights upto 3390 meters. In the agency, there extends an open valley from Mirali to

Spinwam with patches of agrarian terraces. Miranshah; the agency capital is located in the

famous Tochi valley. Five rivers that flow in the area from west to east include Tochi,

Kaitu, Kurram, Khaisora and Shaktu rivers. In addition to five rivers, several seasonal

nullahs and streams are also present to flood the area during rainy seasons. Few of the key

seasonal nullahs include Charkhai Nullah, Dwa Manda Algad and Kazha Algad. On either

side of these rivers and seasonal nullahs there are valleys that are dry in northern half but

green towards the southern parts of the agency (Geography and Habitat, 2015).

Communication means along the existing roads are generally developed but no

infrastructure is available elsewhere. Apart from the main roads only few branch roads can

be termed as blacktop whereas shingle tracks mostly lead to the remote khels or villages.

The agency is generally devoid of the vegetation except in areas south of the line

Gurbaz - Razmak - Gharyum where there are fairly well grown trees including Cedar and

sprinkled clumps of Apple and Apricot. However in remaining parts of the agency, the

vegetation is largely restricted to widely spread low shrubs and seasonal grass; that grow

from March to August, and the scattered trees around population centers and river banks.

Step farming technique is generally applied for cultivation of maize and wheat crops

however few of the crops and orchards are also cultivated in the Tochi river bed and along

Boya- Miranshah road. In-addition few date palm trees in Khajuri and limited scale

vegetation in the areas around Datta Khel also exist.

The extreme temperatures, wind and dryness characterize the agency climate.

During spring and autumn, it generally remains pleasant. The temperature in Tochi valley;

around Miranshah shoots up to 40 to 42 degree centigrade during summers while during

winters it stays as low as 8 to 10 degree centigrade (Geography and Habitat, 2015).

13

However, the winters in Shawal and Khaisora valleys witness the temperature drop as low

as minus 20 and 16 degree centigrade respectively during January. Wind speeds are much

higher in the area when compared with rest of the FATA thus reflecting potential for wind

energy. The mid July brings extensive monsoon rains till the end of September, however

from December to March occasional showers are witnessed. The average recorded annual

rainfall is generally between 200 to 225 millimeters (Geography and Habitat, 2015).

Although there are no conventional floods in the area, yet the phenomenon of flash floods

is common in low-lying areas along the rivers.

1.2 Water Sources

The area is blessed with plenty of water potential including rivers, seasonal nullahs

and springs. The available water sources not only meet the drinking requirements but also

supply water for agricultural needs. The agency in addition to rivers and seasonal nullahs

has few water retaining structures and dams with huge potential for agricultural

development and the energy generation. Major water resources currently contributing to

the socioeconomic needs of locals are discussed in succeeding paragraphs.

1.2.1 Rivers

Five major rivers flow through various areas of the North Waziristan with three

entering from Afghan province of Khost. These rivers are narrow at the point of entrance

but spread out afterward. The river beds in plains are sandy but contain small rocks and

boulders in mountains (Geography and Habitat, 2013). Small water channels with

varying width flow in theses river beds and irrigate five valleys including two major;

Tochi and Shawal, and three relatively smaller ones (Iqbal, 2016). The available water

potential apart from meeting the drinking requirements also provides requisite economic

resource for daily sustenance. Different rivers flowing through the agency include

following (Geography and Habitat, 2015):

Tochi River : 100 to200 meters wide with length of about 128 kilometers

Kurram River : 200 to 300 meters wide and about 28 kilometers long

Kaitu River : 130 to 300 meters wide and about 48 kilometers long

Shaktu River : 150 to 350 meters wide and have sandy bed

Khaisora Rive : 50 to 150 meters wide with 5 to 10 feet high banks

14

1.2.2 Seasonal Nullahs

There are numerous seasonal nullahs which apart from charging the rivers, irrigate

the adjacent agricultural lands. Although seasonal nullahs generally remain dry however

during monsoon season theses nullahs cause flash floods. The nullah beds; like rivers, are

frequently used as smuggling routes as their sandy nature allows fair degree of movement

during dry seasons (H. Rehman, personal communication, March 17, 2017).

1.2.3 Springs

The agency also houses number of natural springs that in the absence of developed

water schemes provide drinking water. However due to lack of water distribution system,

these springs hardly meet the drinking requirements of local population. These water

sources can certainly contribute towards the quality of life if water distribution system is

developed systematically.

1.2.4 Dams and Reservoirs

North Waziristan possesses enormous water potential that merits requisite

exploration by developing different hydro management projects. These projects while

serving the local water requirements can play an important role in power generation to

meet the energy demand. The Danday Small Dam with 101 feet height and 4820 acre-feet

water storage capacity has already been completed in 2011 with the cost of about Rupees

553.680 million (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016). Also at about 20

kilometers from Mirali, Kund Small Dam with the catchments area of 10.20 square miles

and height of about 78 feet has been planned with an estimated cost of Rupees 178.942

million. This earth core rock filled small dam is furcated to have the gross water capacity

of about 3375 acre-feet (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016).

Foundation stone of yet another smal dam project named Kurram-Tangi small

dam; with an estimated budget of Rupees 59.561 billion, has already been laid (J. Iqbal,

personal communication, November 18, 2016). The small dam project under construction

on river Kurram will irrigate a command area of 84,380 acres with power generation

capacity of 83.4 Mega Watt. The Kurram-Tangi small dam will also complement 278,000

acres of the existing system of Civil and Marwat Canals. Five canal systems; including

Thal Canal, Shertalla Canal, Spairaga Canal, Civil Canal and Marwat Canal, have been

planned from this dam (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016). In-

15

addition to above discussed water projects, feasibility studies of Sarrobi small dam and

Walmai small dam have also been concluded. The planned water storage projects on

completion may yield following benefits.

Provide irrigation water in the Shertalla, Spairaga and Thal plains.

Improvement of crops in the command areas of Civil and Marwat Canals.

Purposeful and efficient management of water flowing in Kurram and Kaitu rivers.

Generating the hydel energy to meet the growing local demands.

Improve socioeconomic conditions of locals in adjoining areas.

Creation of job opportunities for local population.

1.3 Agriculture

Agricultural output of the area has always been extremely low due to meager land

holdings coupled with poor land management. The agency agriculture department official

remarked that presently only half of the arable land is being used for agriculture and

prospects of retrieving the wasteland has yet not been studied (M. Anwar, personal

communication, December 19, 2017). Although the fertility of soil and cultivation friendly

climate is suitable for growing of cereals, different fruits and vegetables but productivity

index has traditionally been very low.

Population in the south mostly depends on forestry, domestic animals and few

orchard crops and the arable land lay mainly astride rivers and perennial nullahs

(Geography and Habitat, 2015). There is no marketing facility for agricultural products

mainly due to absence of communication infrastructure. The most common agricultural

crops include potato, apples and apricot, wheat and maize, vegetables, dates and dry fruits

(M. Anwar, personal communication, December 19, 2016). Important agricultural

indicators are given in table 1 below.

Table 1:

Land Usage

Agricultural Indicators Year 2014-15

Reported Area (Hectares) 480.2

Cultivable Area (Hectares) 21.3

16

Cultivated Area (Hectares) 19.7

Cultivable Waste (Hectares) 1.6

Irrigated Area (Hectares) 15.4

Forest Area (Hectares) 0.401

Source: Geography and Habitat- NWA, 2015

1.4 Livestock

Local population sustains domestic economy through livestock rearing despite

insufficient veterinary facilities, mediocre genetic potential and inadequate marketing

facilities. The significance of livestock in the local economy has been highlighted in

FATA Sustainable Development Plan that describes the animals as a ‗source of milk and

meat‘. It writes that apart from supplying milk, the animals are source of dung that serves

as fuel and fertilizer. The document also describes that animal hides, skins, wool and other

numerous products provide raw materials for livestock based industry (Secretariate, 2007).

Livestock rearing like other pastoral societies is a common practice among tribal

inhabitants of the agency. The agency land despite being barren provides enough fodder in

mountains and areas irrigated by natural water sources especially along banks of the Tochi

River. The livestock industry of the agency mostly involves rearing of cows, buffalos,

horses, donkeys, mules and goats. Apart from large animals, poultry keeping also

complements the diet along with financial sustenance for large segment of tribal society

(A. Rehman, personal communication, November 16, 2016). Veterinary facilities; mostly

dysfunctional, are given below in table 2.

Table 2:

Veterinary Facilities

Serial Livestock Indicators Year 2014-15

1. Veterinary Hospitals 1

2. Veterinary Dispensaries 5

3. Animal Insemination Facilities 3

Source: Geography and Habitat NWA, 2015

17

1.5 Forests

The forests apart from contributing to a healthy atmosphere and controlling of

flash floods; provide much needed fuel and fodder. These also contribute to the local rural

economy through creation of jobs, felling operations, sawmills, charcoal kilns,

transportation and furniture industry. Although no reliable data is available regarding

forest cover in the area however according to agency administration estimates the forests

cover an approximate area of 0.402 Hectares; only 0.1 percent of the agency land (I. Ullah,

personal communication, December 19, 2016). The estimated statistics are certainly not

true reflection of forest growing potential of the agency. The existing forests mostly

consist of wide leave class trees like chalghoza, kail (Himalayan pine, Pinus wallichiana),

deodar (Himalayan cedar), small patches of chir and conifers like Oak with associated

species such as ber, gurgura, neem, amaltas (Indian laburnum, Cassia fistula) and walnut

(Geography and Habitat, 2015).

1.6 Minerals

The agency with huge reserves of refined Manganese and Chromite is one of the

minerals rich areas of the tribal belt. The United States Department of Interior Geological

Survey while giving the details about copper reserves in Boya area notes that; ―At these

localities (Cu-17, 18, 19, 20) and probably others not yet described, copper mineralization

is associated with metamorphosed volcanic rocks and sediments. The entire area should be

investigated because of the likelihood that widespread regional copper mineralization

extends as far north as Parachinar in Kurram Agency (Cu-22) and reportedly, to the west

in Afghanistan, centering in the Sufaid Koh Range‖ (White, 1975).

Large deposits of different minerals including metallic and non-metallic minerals,

precious stones and rocks for industrial use, and energy minerals have been identified

across different parts of the agency. Although large-scale exploration activities halted due

to militancy but local population is still engaged in limited mining activities (Minerals

Development Plan- NWA, 2013). However, absence of formal mining industry has largely

kept the locals away from economic riches annexed to unexplored reserves. Different

areas with recognized mineral potentials are marked on the agency minerals map placed at

annexure B.

18

Geological Survey of Pakistan has identified copper reserves in areas around

Shinkai, Mohammad Khel and Boya. The exploration activities had been continuing in

these areas at limited scale untill 1996 but lately the Shinkai area; with expected potential

of 35 million ton (Ore form) was chosen for thorough exploration (K. Afridi, personal

communication, January 13, 2017). The energy minerals like oil and gas near Isha and

north of Mirali have yet not been quantified. Areas near Mohammad Khel, Saidgai and

Dossali have un-quantified Chromite reserves (Minerals Development Plan- NWA, 2013).

Formal exploration of Copper, Manganese and Chromite has yet not started due to

poor law and order situation emanated due to terrorism. Moreover, despite grant of

exploration permit to OGDCL, exploration of oil and gas has also not commenced (K.

Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). However, political administration has

started granting about 200 to 250 exploration permits; on monthly basis with government

fee of Rupees 15000.00 per permit, to different individuals from local community who are

engaged in limited scale mining of Chromite (K. Afridi, personal communication, January

13, 2017). The mined Chromite is transported to Karachi before ferrying it to China. The

Saidgai and Shuidar area near Datta Khel also hold Manganese reserves with estimated

quantity of about 0.12 Million ton of Ore. According to above cited report by mineral

department, the Tore Kadi Khel and Saidgai areas are estimated to have 0.1 Million ton

Ore; with 40 to 45 percent of Manganese (Minerals Development Plan- NWA, 2013).

Although exploration permits were granted to local contractors in 2005 but the mining

largely remained suspended due to security situation of the agency (Khan, 2008). Agency

statistics showing the mining activity during the year 2014-15 are given in table 3 below.

Table 3:

Mining Activity Year 2014 -15

Mineral Explored Ton

Chromite 118638

Manganese 89542

Limestone 0


19

1.7 Communication Infrastructure

Agency communication infrastructure is undeveloped due to neglect by successive

governments. The road network is mostly shingled with exception of black top roads

connecting Miranshah with other population hubs of Bannu, Razmak, Ghulam Khan and

Datta Khel. The envisioned modern silk route (Starr, Kuchins, Benson, Karkowski, Linn,

and Sanderson, 2010) can help in socioeconomic transformation of the locals with the

expansion of existing communication infrastructure. The construction works on Central

Waziristan Road D.I Khan-Wana-Razmak-Miransha-Ghulam Khan and Bannu –

Miranshah – Ghulam Khan road have already been completed ((N.Sahib, personal

communication, October 25, 2016). Similarly other communication means including

telephone and postal services are restricted to Miranshah and other major population

centers of Mirali, Razmak, Shawal and Datta Khel. Brief details of the important elements

of communication infrastructure in the area are listed below in table 4.

Table 4:

Communication Infrastructure

Communication Infrastructure Year 2014-15

Blacktop Roads in Kilometers 235

Roads per Square Kilometer 0.17

No of Post Offices 13

No of Telephones 1245


1.8 Population

The agency is populated by the battle hardy Karlanri Pathans to include Darwesh

Khel Wazir and Mehsud tribes. The population also includes smaller tribes like Dawars,

Saidgai, Kharsin and Gurbaz. Both Wazir and Mehsud tribes have ancestral link but

maintain their separate identity for all administrative purposes. Wazirs have Rajput origin

and ethnological connections probably leading to the Indians with possible mixture of

Scythian or Tartar blood (Ibbeston, 1987). The book ‗From the Black Mountains to

20

Waziristan‘ (Wylly., 1912) compares the Mehsud to a wolf and Wazir to a panther.

Colonel Wylly (1912) writes that the Wazir tribes reside in different areas of the Tochi

valley, the Shawal valley and along fertile banks of the Khaisora, Kaitu and Kurram rivers.

However, Mehsud tribes mainly inhabit southern parts of the North Waziristan with

Kaniguram and Makin as chief population centers; surrounded by Darwesh Khel Wazir

except east. Historically Mehsud tribes have remained aloof and at war with Wazirs. The

Edwards writes that "Of the Wazir, It is literally true that his hand is against every man

and every man's hand against him‖ (Wylly, 1912).

Third main tribe is Dawar who are Ghurghusht Pathans from Kakai Karlanri

branch. They are the offsprings of Shitak and therefore have intimate association with the

Bannuchis. Traditionally Dawars are not categorized as true Pathans for supposedly being

descendants from a mirasi wife of Shah Husain, who was the ruler of Ghor during eighth

century (Wylly, 1912). Dawars are regarded to have ancestral links to the Shawal area of

the agency; the place from where they along with the Bannuchis were forcefully expelled

to present location by the Wazirs during fourteenth century. Presently the Dawars are

residing in open valleys; surrounded by Wazirs who separate Upper Dawar from Lower

Dawar land. The family tree of Karlani Pathans is given below at figure 1 (Caroe, 1958).

Figure 1:

Karlani Genealogy

Source: ―The Pathan‖ by Sir Olaf Caroe (1958)

21

1.8.1 Population Distribution

The agency in north and north western parts is occupied by Utmanzai Wazir and

Dawar tribes along with other minor tribes namely Saidgai, Kharsins and Gurbaz. The

Malakshi Mehsud tribe inhabits the Shawal valley along inter agency boundary with South

Waziristan. The Mehsud and Wazir tribes are hypersensitive towards inter agency

boundary in the Shawal area. The Uzbek and Arab groups along with pockets of other

foreigners have also been living in the area but due to military operation ‗Zarb-e-Azb‘

either they have been killed or ex-filtrated. An estimated population of the agency is about

0.5 million, as given below in Table 5. Known composition of various agency tribes based

on estimated population is; Wazir 59%, Dawar 40% and Mehsud 1% (Sandhu, 2013). Few

important population hubs in the agency are given at annexure C. The distribution of tribal

population along with the connectivity infrastructure is also attached at annexure D and

annexure E respectively.

Table 5:

Population Distribution

Sub-division 1998 Census 2013 Survey

Male Female Total Male Female Total

North Waziristan 192432 168814 361246 254254 223048 477302

Datta Khel 58706 51300 110006 77566 67781 145347

Dossali 10878 9604 20482 14373 12689 27062

Gharyum 2273 1644 3917 3003 2172 5175

Ghulam Khan 7112 6139 13251 9397 8111 17508

Mirali 49052 44803 93855 64811 59197 124007

Miranshah 36409 31121 67530 48106 41119 89225

Razmak 3497 2232 5729 4620 2949 7570

Spinwam 12546 10974 23520 16577 14500 31076

Shewa 11959 10997 22956 15801 14530 30331

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

22

1.8.2 Utmanzai Wazirs and Mehsuds

Both Wazir and Mehsud tribes have their origin in the Afghan bordering district of

Birmal and started their eastward movement towards the later part of 14th

century; initially

settling north of river Tochi before spreading southwards to the Gomal (General Staff

Transcripts, 1921). The Royal Indian Army General Staff Transcripts (1921) while

describing the sovereign nature of theses tribes observe that their character, organization

and instincts have turned them an independent and extremely democratic to an extent that

even Maliks (or elders) hold little control over theses unruly spirits. These true sons of

Esau, the Waziristan tribes ―carry their lives in their hands and finding that the natural

resources of their country do not favor them enough, they eke out their existence by

plundering their more peaceful neighbors‖ (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). Among them

any one may rise to the position of a Malik through his courage and wisdom, however the

path is full of life threatening hazards as many of those who attempted the assumption of

such authority had been assassinated (Imperial Gazzetteer of India, 1908).

The Wazir and Mehsud tribes are Sunni Muslims with no strictness in offering of

their religious obligations and are not necessarily under much influence of their Mullahs.

This makes these war hardy tribes relatively less fanatical when compared with other

tribes inhabiting the frontier land. The example can be found in an historical incident

occurred during the Jihad of Kashmir in 1947-48 where Mir Badshah Khan have been

found publically squelching Mullah Fazil Din, son of Mullah Powindah, by saying that

―Don‘t give us advice on how to conduct battles and matters that don‘t concern you. You

just lead prayers and wash bodies of our dead comrades according to Islam; we have other

men to lead us in battle‖ (Ahmed, 1983). The Mehsud also narrate stories of their

ancestors keeping even Mullah Powindah at his place by saying; ―You are a mullah; Stick

to your traditional business only‖ (Ahmed, 1983). These tribes during the British military

expeditions fervently challenged the British authority on all fronts. The Indian Governor

General remarked that the ―Waziristan disturbance alone to be equal in the intensity to all

other agencies‖ (Ahmed, 1983). Major clans of Utmanzai Wazir tribe along with their

genealogy are given at annexure F.

23

1.8.3 Dawars

The Dawars; Ghurghust Pashtuns of Karlanri branch having ancestral link with the

Shawal area are second largest tribe of the agency. The Wazirs forced the Dawars along

with Bannuchis to leave their native areas in their present settlements (Wazir, 2016).

Dawars tribes mostly inhabit the banks of rives Tochi starting from village Gharlamai to

the Khajuri Post (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). Historically the Dawar tribes are the

most assiduous, hardworking, and enduring cultivators and despite being unwarlike by

nature, have successfully resisted the attempts by Wazir and Mehsud tribes to oust them

from their settlements in Tochi valley (General Staff Transcripts, 1921).

During the year 1925; the Wazirs formally purchased Dawars‘ land holdings in

Tochi valley (Imperial Gazzetter of India, 1908) which is still regretted by the Dawar due

to their encirclement by the Wazir tribes. However, the Tappizad clan of the Lower

Dawars is still occupying the areas from Shinki defile to Taghrai Tangi. The famous

‗Tochi Pass‘ running through the Dawar settlement areas had historically been used by

different ancient invaders. It is believed that the Greece armies lead by ―Alexander the

great‖ have also marched through the Tochi valley on their way to attack Multan (Imperial

Gazetteer of India, 1908) and a mound near village Idak reflects the ancient history of the

Dawar valley. Other Afghan invades like Sultan Mehmood Ghaznavi and Bahadur Shah

marched through this valley to invade Bannu during 1000 A.D and 1700 A.D respectively

(Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908). Dawar tribes had always cherished their claim that

attacked and repulsed the forces of the later thereby compelling him to pay a hefty amount

to Dawar tribes to secure a safe return journey. During the subsequent years, the valley fell

nominally during the reign of Ahmad Shah Abdali. However, the Dawar tribes virtually

remained independent until 1895; when they came under the sphere of British India due to

a treaty between the Royale Indian government and the Amir of Afghanistan (Imperial

Gazetteer of India, 1908).

The Dawars are deeply democratic with Maliks having little authority unless

possess strong followership among blood relations. Dawars are mostly influenced by their

Mullahs having sole authority to ban anyone from religious congregations. In the lower

Dawar area the village Hassu Khel is known as the ―land of Mullahs‖ (Imperial Gazette of

India, 1908). Also the village Ipi in lower Dawar is famous for being the birth place of late

Faqir of Ipi; Haji Mirza Ali Khan, who spent his early life in Ipi village (Warren, 2000). A

24

Dawar will always carry his weapon even in the mosque and will put it in front during his

prayer. Major clans of the Dawar tribe along with their genealogy are given at annexure G.

1.8.4 Saidgai

The Saidgai tribe resides in the Danday plains with few settlements in Zoi near

Maizar area in Tehsil Datta Khel and Dewagar in Tehsil Ghulam Khan. They get their

political Kharcha (money) from Darpa Khel Dawars and Bora Khel Wazirs while sharing

Nekat with Mohmit Khel Wazirs (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017).

Although the tribe claims its direct relation with the family of the Holy Prophet

(PBUH) but no recorded evidence exists to trace the origin. The British government failed

to explore and record the history of Saidgai tribes despite their settlement in Danday

Saidgai area; an important entry route from Afghanistan. It is generally believed that

ancestors of Saidgai tribes left Madina and on arrival in subcontinent during early

eighteenth century, they settled in the Afghan areas of Ghazni, Urgun and Birmal with few

choosing the Danday area of North Waziristan (A. Nasir, personal communication,

January 10, 2017).

Sadigai tribe is sub-divided into two main clans of Malka Khel and Jibo Khel.

Malka Khel is further sub-divided into Shodi and Boder Khels whereas the Jibo Khel into

Zakar Khel and Dirmoni. The Shodi and Boder Khel clans comprise of Zoi and Dewagar

Saidgais. The main population of the Zoi is in Maizar; Datta Khel area while Dirmoni‘s

reside near Miranshah in Danday area (Imperial Gazette of India, 1908).

1.8.5 Gurbaz

The Gurbaz are Ghurghust Karlani Pathans of the Wazir origin. Sulaiman had two

sons, Lalai and Khizrai. Lalai due to the reason of a blood feud had to flee to settle in the

Nangarhar; on the northern slopes of the western Koh-e-Sufaid. The second son of

Sulaiman ‗Khizrai‘; who had three sons Musa, Mahmud and Mubarak, is believed to be

the ancestral father of Gurbaz.

The Gurbaz tribes had generally accompanied the Wazirs during their movements.

Once they also had occupied the hilly land lay between Mehsud and Darwesh Khel Wazir;

where the possession of Gabbar peak was disputed between Gurbaz and the Bittani tribes

(Geography and Habitat, 2015). The Gurbaz maintained their occupation claim of Gabbar

Mountains by defeating the Bittanis until they was driven out by Bittanis (Mehsud, 2000).

25

The present settlements of the Gurbaz exist towards north of Miranshah and west of Khost

range with few residing between Khajuri and Shinki Tangi. The Gurbaz also have small

village settlements in Masha, Ghulam Khan and Danday Darpa Khel areas with few other

villages including Gensure, Kaskail, Lalizha, Kondi Kali and Barri Kali (A. Nasir,

personal communication, January 10, 2017).

1.8.6 Kharsin

The militant tribe ‗Kharsin‘ claims their genealogy to Hazrat Bilal; companion of

the Holy Prophet (PBUH). The tribes derived their name ―Kharsin‖ from a saint known as

―Gharshin‖ having two sons Chalak and Toradak. The off-springs of Chalak reside in

Wozhghi whereas those of Toradak are settled in Zangotti. Few element of the Kharsin

tribes also inhabit the Gurwek valley; north of Shawal and Doga area in Tehsil Datta Khel.

Some of the clans from Kharsin tribes have also settled in Sabrina valley in Khost,

Afghanistan. The Kharsin tribes earn their livings mostly through land cultivation and

camel or donkey rearing and share their Nekat with Madda Khel Wazirs (Geography and

Habitat, 2015).

1.9 The Leadership

Traditional Maliks and the recently emerged religious leadership have enormous

influence over the local tribes. The tribal elders or Maliks and the religious leadership who

are the most influentials among tribal community are briefly discussed in coming section.

1.9.1 The Maliks

The British Indian government introduced the system of Maliks to function as

medium between agency administration and the "Qaum". The hereditary system where the

―Maliki‖ is transferred to son and his son and so on and so forth; for which regular

subsidies and benefits are authorized from time to time. The Lungi system commonly

termed as the Sufaid Resh is somewhat lower form of the Maliki system. There are 1631

Maliks and Lungi holders in the agency with perks and privileges amounting to Rs.

1212000.00 (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017).

Every tribe has its traditional elder ―Malik‖ who represents his tribe and enjoys the

support of community and government echelons. The Maliks are awarded hereditary

government allowances known as the ―Maliki Allowance‖ for their support to the

government in dealing with tribal communities. During the recent years of militancy, the

26

terrorists had been targeting the Maliki system to kill the leading Maliks. Consequently the

government appointed new Maliks who due to lack of requisite support failed to exercise

traditional control over tribal affairs. Names of the eminent tribal elders are given at

annexure H.

1.9.2 Religious Leadership

Traditionally the religion had been playing a dominant role in the overall

sociocultural outlook of the local communities. The factor of Afghan Jihad following the

Soviet invasion of Afghanistan during 1979 and the subsequent influx of Pakhtun refugees

in already hypersensitive area under study further fueled the situation. The situation

worsened further when different terrorist outfits started exploiting the local respect for

religion to muster absolute authority and to seek moral validation of their odious crimes.

These terrorist groups were not familiar with basic tenets of Islam and therefore they

neither practiced religion themselves nor did they allow the local population. The

circumstances eventually led to the stripping of traditional influence from religious

leadership and thus subjecting their institutional loyalty to complex questions. Few known

religious personalities of the agency are given at annexure I.

1.10 Politico-Legal System

Traditionally the politico-legal system of the agency had been steered by the

Pashtun customs and Jirga decisions. However, during 1877 the British Viceroy Lord

Lytton introduced a comparatively defined political setup for tribal areas where central

government would exercise direct administrative authority. Resultantly the government

created different political agencies for implementation of conceived political system based

on FCR (Khan, 2008). Under FCR a Political Agent with full administrative and judicial

powers was appointed in each agency. The administrative system of the areas is based on

the code of collective tribal territorial responsibility ostensibly enshrined in the tribal

customs (Shinwari, 2010).

1.10.1 Political System

The political system remained enforced until the Indian independence Act of 1947

was passed and the treaties reached between the government of British India and tribes

were quashed under clause 7; paragraph C of the Indian Independence Act (Khan, 2008).

After the independence on 14th

August 1947, the newly born state of Pakistan and the

27

tribal areas entered into new agreements. The political secretary Mr. A. S. B. Shah on

behalf of the state of Pakistan signed these agreements with different tribes from 15 to 22

November 1947. The Governor General of Pakistan, Mr. Jinnah gave a solemn pledge to

the tribes not to interfere in the internal affairs of the tribes in exchange for joining

Pakistan‖ (Khan, 2010). Few of the main clauses of the mutually signed agreement have

been enlisted at annexure J.

The agency being part of FATA functions under the executive authority of the

Federation; as required vide Article 247 of the constitution of the Islamic Republic of

Pakistan. Under Article 247 and the Statutory Notification SRO-109 dated 25th

June

1970; the President of Pakistan exercises administrative authority in FATA and appoints

governor KP to exercise executive authority in FATA on his behalf and in accordance

with the directives of the President. Main provisions of the Article 246 of the 1973

constitution of Pakistan elaborating constitutional status of FATA have been enclosed at

annexure K. Also names of the administrative heads of the important lines departments

of the agency are given at annexure L.

1.10.2 Legal System

The agency like other parts of FATA enjoys a distinctive status in country‘s legal

system. The legislative powers are vested in the president of Pakistan with acts of

parliament having no applicability unless issued through presidential order after

consultations with the locals. The agency under the constitution is divided into Protected

and Tribal territories. The local tribes are granted special perks and kassadaries to

maintain writ of the government in Protected Territory; semi-autonomous areas. The

Khassadars are responsible for the security of roads, the state installations and other areas

declared ―Protected Territories‖ with the mutual consent of the tribes and the agency

administration. However, the government can take the cognizance of the crimes only in

Protected Territory (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). Other parts of

the agency have been declared as the Tribal territories; autonomous areas where writ of

the state is non-existent. In these territories, the tribes exercise their right of governance

in accordance with tribal customs. The layout of legal provisions as applicable in the

agency is given below in figure 2 (next page).

28

Figure 2:

Legal Provisions

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil. Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

Contrary to the country‘s legal system, the Supreme Court and High Courts have

been constitutionally barred to exercise jurisdiction in FATA including North Waziristan.

The cases are dealt under the provisions of FCR with Political Agent or Assistant Political

Agent assuming the role of judiciary. The decisions can be challenged in the appellate

courts with first appeal to Commissioner FCR and then subsequently to four members

FCR Tribunal including two retired Judges of the Superior Judiciary. The Tribunal is

premier appellate court with authority of a High Court for all judicial matters. The layout

of agency legal setup is given below in figure 3.

Figure 3:

Layout of Legal Setup


Constitutional Arrangement

Part of Pakistan [Article 2 (C)]

Definition of FATA [Article 246]

Administration of FATA [Article 247]

Law

Frontier Crimes Regulations 1901

Agreements between Tribesmen and Government

Tribal Riwaj /Customs

Agreements Legal Implications

Protected Territory

Tribal Territory

FCR 1901

Agreements

Riwaj / Customs

FCR Tribunal (Highest Court of Appeal)

Independent Body (2x Civil Servants and 2x Retired Judges of High Court)

Political Agent

(District Session Judges / DM) Assistant Political Agent

(Additional District Session Judges/ SDM)

Commissioner FCR (Appellate)

29

The agency administration can take cognizance of crimes both civil and criminal

committed against person or state within the Protected Territory. In case of criminal acts,

the tribe in whose area crime occurred is deemed responsible and hence tribal perks and

privileges including Khassadaries are stopped forthwith. A notice for production of

culprits is issued to the tribe believed responsible. The presiding officer on referral of the

case appoints council of elders comprising of minimum three members selected with

mutual consent of parties. The council examines the evidence presented by opposing

parties and endeavours to reach at mutually acceptable decision. Later the final decision is

referred to the presiding officer who by issuing the court order provides legal cover before

implementation through tribal elders (Khan, 2016). Figures 4 and 5 below give details of

the judicial process for civil and criminal cases respectively.

Figure 4:

Judicial Procedures Civil Cases


Figure 5:

Judicial Procedures Criminal Cases


Civil Nature Cases (Referral cases by any party)

Council of Elders (Nominated by Presiding officer in Consultation with both Parties)

Decision by Council of Elders

Legal Cover by the Presiding Officer through Court Decision

Implementation by Political Administration through Elders and LEAs

Criminal Cases (Cognizance by Administration) Crimes in Protected Territory only

Implementation by Political Administration Fines on Tribes

Imprisonment

Legal Cover by the Presiding Officer through Court Decision

Stoppage of Perks and Privileges by Presiding Officer

Council of Elders under FCR

(Nominated by Presiding officer)

Arrest of Culprit/Kith and Kin

Decision by Council of Elders as per FCR and agreement

30

1.11 Administrative System

North Waziristan is administratively divided into three sub-divisions including

Miranshah, Mirali and Razmak. These sub-divisions are further sub-divided into ten small

administrative units; named Tehsils as given below in figure 6 (K. Afridi, personal

communication, January 13, 2017). The layout of agency administrative setup is given in

figure 6 below.

Figure 6:

Layout of Administrative Setup


The system of political administration in the area is simple but unique in character.

The governor KP being executive representative of the president of Pakistan administers

the agency affairs through FATA Secretariat and the Political Agent. The Political Agent;

the chief administrator as well as district magistrate is assisted by Additional Political

Agent to administer the agency affairs. Whereas the Assistant Political Agents; additional

district magistrates manage the administration at sub-division levels. The administrative

responsibility at Tehsil level is further delegated to Tehsildar who is the Tehsil head. The

political administration has no substantive administrative apparatus except Maliks who

APA Mirali/ADM

Governor Khyber Pukhtunkhwa

PNT

Datta Khel

Development Works

Political Agent/ DM

APO Miranshah/ADM

APA Razmak/ADM

APA (Development)

FATA Secretariat

PNT

Spinwam PNT

Shewa

PNT

Dossali PNT

Garyum

PNT

Razmak

PNT

Miranshah PNT

Ghulam Khan

PNT

Shawal

President of Pakistan

PNT

Mirali

PNTs are assisted by

Political Moharrars

31

have tribal influence and are formally recognized by the state as ―elders‖. The tribal

Maliks apart from making the council of elders; commonly known as Jirga, act as

intermediaries between local communities and the political administration.

1.12 Law Enforcement System

Traditionally tribal force ―Khasadars‖ and Frontier Corps have been assisting the

political administration in the law enforcement. However due to recently emerged

phenomenon of terrorism, the armed forces also moved into the arena creating three fold

law enforcement apparatus. The three tiered system is shown in figure 7 below.

Figure 7:

Law Enforcement Agencies


1.12.1 Political Force

There are two components of this force; namely the levy force and the Khassadars.

The levy serves as the tribal police function under the direct control of political

administration. After a long period of suspension, this force has been revived recently. The

second component ‗Khasadars‘ is the force of tribesmen having strong allegiance towards

respective tribes rather than State. Although the Khassadars are paid by the state but they

Frontier

Corps

Guarding the Borders with

Afghanistan

Internal Security and anti-smuggling

role

Assist Political Administration in maintaining Law and

Order

Political

Force

Khasadars (Tribal Force to guard Protective and

Territorial Responsibilities)

Levy (Raised to assist the Political Administration in

Policing)

Pakistan

Army

Internal

Security

Counter

Terrorism

Assist Political Administration in maintaining Law and Order

Including development activities

32

themselves arrange the weapons and ammunition while preventing crimes in the Protected

Territory. The effectiveness of Khasadars absolutely depends upon the tribal consent and

is therefore completely redundant tribal assent. The recruitment of Khassadars is carried

out according to the tribal sharing, known as Nekat. Currently enrolled number of

Khassadars is about 3703. The salaries and other expenditures incurred annually on levies

and Khasadars is about Rupees 190 Million (Y. Akhunzada, personal communication,

October 7, 2016).

1.12.2 Frontier Corps

The para military forces of Tochi Scouts and Shawal Riles functioning under the

Ministry of Interior are primarily responsible to guard the western international border.

The force in addition to its primary role also helps political administration to control cross

border flow of contraband items and to conduct security operations if required. However

the recent operational requirements; arisen due to fight against terrorism, necessitated the

transfer of conventional command mechanism of Frontier Corps to regular armed forces of

the country.

2.12.3 Pakistan Army

The country‘s armed forces marched into the agency after traditional

administrative mechanism of the agency virtually collapsed. The terrorists supported by

their foreign accomplices took the tribal elders hostage thus creating sociopolitical chaos

in the area. The armed forces after unprecedented sacrifices restored the law and order

situation in the agency after successful military operation Zarb-e-Azb. Having flushed the

terrorists out of their hideouts from North Waziristan, the armed forces are now engaged

in the post operational rehabilitation activities for socioeconomic developments.

1.13 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives an overview of the geography, climate and demographic profile

of the turbulent North Waziristan. Apart from introducing the reader with the

socioeconomic potentials of the area including its agriculture, water, livestock and

minerals, the chapter also gives a brief account of different civic facilities available in the

area. The chapter also enlightens the readers with the politico-legal as well as

administrative systems of the agency for better understanding of the deep-rooted problems

to comprehend the environments for proposed rehabilitation framework.

33

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

34

LITERATURE REVIEW

Maximum relevant published literature on North Waziristan; corresponding with

study research questions, has been discussed in this chapter. The literature has covered the

agency especially geographical features, local customs and tribal traditions, its economic

potentials, its system of administration and governance. The literature also covers

important geostrategic environments after the commencement of United States led military

operations in Afghanistan. Subsequently the FATA region especially North Waziristan

emerged as the most discussed topic in the national and international electronic and print

media. This added enormous literary work to the existing literature most of which

discussed the war against terrorism. This literature includes innumerable articles by

academicians and different reports of NGOs, journalists or government officials. The

literature review includes articles from various reports, journalists, interviews,

governmental reports and expert opinions. The conceptual framework of research has also

emerged from the reviewed literature for broader insight of the problem statement.

2.1 Parental Paradigm

Parent theories of this research come from social engineering theory through

application of system‘s thinking approach. While explaining the causes of conflict, the

social engineering theory explained how states, individuals and groups in a society work

to maximize their own benefits. The states, groups and individuals at the driving seat try to

achieve their strategic objectives by exploiting different sociocultural dimensions of

subject society. Thus, if the process of social engineering doesn‘t remain under control

then different types of violence and conflicts will emerge and eventually will run out of

control thus leading to movement, or even civil wars. On the other hand systems‘ thinking

approach offers a detailed analysis of the conflict dimensions while providing a foundation

for a post conflict rehabilitation framework thereby addressing the remaining Hypotheses.

2.2 Historical Perspective

The North Waziristan had remained isolated from external influences due to its

geographical location throughout the recorded history of FATA region. Various foreign

invaders; looking for the Indian riches, mostly used passes of the northern region thus

exposing local tribes to certain degree of outside influences. Whereas the tribes from

southern region had witnessed trade activities by different traveling groups coupled with

35

incursion and occupation by the Persian armies. However due to geographical barriers the

Waziristan area; both South and North Waziristan agencies, had stayed relatively isolated

from external influences (Ahmad, 1983). The North Waziristan due to its significance

during different geostrategic dispensations has always been a field of immense research

attraction for contemporary scholars. This special scholarly interest was primarily

developed after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that witnessed Afghan jihad throughout

1980s. The geostrategic environments emerged after launching of Operation Enduring

Freedom developed the special academic interests in the North Waziristan agency; that

were further enhanced due to its linkages with the heinous acts of terrorism occurred

across Pakistan.

The events of 19th

century ‗Great Game‘ predominantly shaped the current

geopolitical fortune of the region (Hopkirk, 1992). These events forced the Pashtun tribes

to confront contemporary military powers due to Anglo-Afghan wars during 1839 and in

1878. Having failed to gain headway inside Afghanistan, both former Soviet Union and

Britain mutually decided to accept Afghanistan as buffer zone between them.

Subsequently during 1893, both British India and the Afghan governments mutually

demarcated Durand Line as an international border between them. The drawing of the

international border however had no impact on lives of the local tribes residing on either

side of the border as they continued to maintain strong ethnic and family connections

through Easement Rights. In-addition the British Indian government accorded a semi-

autonomous status to FATA tribes, protected through constitution even after inception of

Pakistan on August 14th

, 1947 (Haq, Khan, and Nuri, 2005).

The forces of British Indian government remained continuously committed in

military combat with the local tribes of the Waziristan mainly the Wazirs and Mehsuds

during most of the 19th

century. This protracted conflict attracted many contemporary

scholars to venture for intellectual exploration of the Waziristan agency. However the

Royal Indian Army General Staff Transcripts (1921) compiled during insurgencies of 19th

and 20th

centuries offer most authentic insight about this strategically important area. The

Waziristan area during the period of Cold War rivalries between former Soviet Union and

her Western opponents including the United States assumed a geostrategic significance

due to its close proximity to the communist ally Afghanistan. A lot was added to the

literature about North Waziristan during the period of Afghan Jihad against former Soviet

Union. However, after the Soviet withdrawal that led to the end of cold war, there was no

36

substantial addition in the literature. The events which preceded the fateful incident of

September 11th

, 2001, especially United States led military campaign against Afghan

Talibans yet again put the agency in limelight. The period has witnessed huge literary

surge in the context of war on terror with no or very little mention of the present day

difficulties faced by locals. However, the study of this important aspect essential to

understand the factors that contributed terrorism remained mostly confined to the official

documents and government functionaries due to lacked access scholarly access during the

same period. The British era documents had elaborately described the geographic

boundaries of North Waziristan. While explaining the local populace, the Imperial

Gazetteer of India (1908) states that ―with the exception of the Dawars of the Dawar

valley, the people of Northern Waziristan belong to the Darwesh Khel branch of the

Wazirs, who are divided into two main sections, the Utmanzai and Ahmadzai. Both these

sections are sub-divided into numerous clans‖. It also gives a brief account of various

tribal raids on British Indian forces and government functionaries that eventually

transformed into a full-scale military campaign during 1897. During the month of June

1897, the Political Agent Mr. Gee accompanied by a strong force went to different villages

around Datta Khel to enforce the collection of fine. The villagers initially welcomed the

force and offered their traditional hospitality. Meanwhile they started gathering to prepare

for a bloody raid without being noticed by the relaxing British troops. The attacking

villagers treacherously killed five British officers and scores of other British Indian

soldiers. Resultantly the British Army embarked on a belligerent military campaign to

punish the culprits and destroy their lands.

The Imperial Gazetteer of India (1908) while giving an account of the local

economy explains that ―the lands of the valley are extremely rich, and grow heavy crops

of maize, rice, millet, sugar-cane, wheat and barley. Mulberry, chinar, willow, and fruit

trees do best. There is an extensive weaving industry for which cotton is imported. The

cultivated area is 15262 acres, or about five eighths of an acre per head of population.

Tenants cultivate about one-third of this area and pay heavy rents in kind, two-thirds of the

gross production being the usual amount. Goats and sheep find good grazing in the

neighbouring hills, despite their barren appearance‖. While describing local population,

the Gazetteer (1908) notes that the Wazir tribes are the descendants of Darwesh Khel

branch and are further sub divided in Utmanzai and Ahmadzai wazirs. Both of these

subsections of Darwesh Khel are composed of several clans.

37

The ‗Operations in Waziristan; 1919-1920‘ , a compilation of the Royal Indian

Army General Staff (1921) gives credible account of sociopolitical dimensions of the

agency. The transcripts have discussed the geography and sociocultural aspects of the

Waziristan inhabitants. It has graded the Wazirs and Mehsuds ―…among the finest fighters

in the world while operating in their own territory... and the ―…best umpires in the world

because they seldom allowed a tactical error to go unpunished‖ (General Staff Transcripts,

1921). An account of the British army‘s Waziristan campaigns is also given in numerous

books published during the same period. The book ‗From the Black Mountains to

Waziristan‘ written by Colonel Wylly (1912) has been among the widely read books on

military history. Apart from describing the Waziristan tribes, the book contains details of

the agency communication infrastructure as well as details about psyche and nature of

the Pashtun areas and the armed struggle they offered to the external invasions. The book

notes that ―No roads through Waziristan lead to Afghanistan - at least no roads that are

better than mere mountain footpaths‖ (Wylly, 1912). The author while discussing nature

of the agency tribes states that the ―Wazirs are an especially democratic and independent

people, and even their own Maliks have little real control over them‖ (Wylly, 1912).

The book ‗Pathan Revolt in North West India‘ by Mills (1897) contains literature

about the cunning nature of the Wazir tribes. However the author has given very sketchy

details of the essential socioeconomic aspects of the agency. The book ‗Waziristan to

Tibet‘ written by Lucas (2012) has mostly discussed the aspect of militancy and the

resulting British military campaigns. He has also given a brief account of the British

policy in dealing with the local tribal population. The writer states that according to Mr.

Brandener; lack of resolve for development is the root cause of the conflict. The author

quotes Mr. Brandener who said, ―We seem to have hoped that civilization would simply

rub off by contact with us. But it hasn‘t happened‖ (Lucas, 2012). The view shared by Mr.

Brandener signifies the belief that only meaningful development initiatives can check the

emergence of militancy born state of conflict that have been prevailing in the agency since

decades. The author further reinforces the notion of development by citing Mr. Arthur who

commented that ―In the long run the only way forward is to civilize the beggars to the

point where all this is a thing of past‖ (Lucas, 2012).

The book of Sir Olaf Caroe (1958) ‗The Pathan‘ is one of the most splendid

literary works that described the history of Pathans of the tribal region including North

Waziristan. The book reflects the writer‘s love for culture, code, language and the tribal

38

land. The Olaf Caroe‘s publication falls in the must read category for basic understanding

of the latest developments in FATA in the historical context. Another book ‗Among the

Wild Tribes of the Afghan Frontier‘ gives valuable account of Mr. Pennell (1909) who

was in charge Bannu medical mission. The officer due to his close interaction and

relationships with local tribes has comprehensively discussed their domestic, social, moral

and religious affairs (Pennell, 1909). Yet another book ‗The Romance of the Indian

Frontiers‘ by MacMunn (1931) gives an impressive account of the frontier regions,

Afghans and Mughuls. The book provides details about the migrations in the frontier

regions of the sub-continent including contemporary armies and wars. The writer has

reviewed the events of Indian frontiers‘ struggles with special reference to the frontier

rebellion of 1897 (MacMunn, 1931).

The book ‗The Way of the Pathans‘ by Spain (1962) reflects the authors‘

understanding of the tribal community and their cultural code of Pukhtunwali. The writer

while taking into account the elements of the history and different traditional stories has

offered a detailed of different frontier tribes visited by him. The book contains a complete

chapter on Khushal Khan Khattak who was a tribal ‗warrior poet‘ (Spain, 1962). Spain in

another publication ‗The Pathan Borderland‘ has discussed the people, the land and culture

of the tribal areas in conventional ethnography. The writer has described the history and

the politics of tribal areas that emerged with the start of British control and finally ended

with the creation of Pakistan (Spain, 1985). The author has discussed major historical

events of the region including unrest of the frontier region, the Afghan wars, Indian

partition before finally ending up with the geopolitical role played by tribal areas during

1960s.

Another book ‗The Tribal Areas of Pakistan a Contemporary Profile‘ by Teepu

Mahabat Khan (2008) is a detailed description of the tribal areas covering the entire

spectrum of topics related to the tribal society of Pakistan, including their origins, history,

social profile, administrative structure and development interventions. The author has

explained the details of related issues in the context of agency geostrategic setting,

historical processes, social ideology and institutional structure. The book has also

attempted to develop an understanding of the cross cutting issues of socioeconomic and

structural reforms in the context of historical events shaping local responses to external

threats making asymmetrical regional power dynamics, the spread of externally induced

39

disruption and internal distortions related to institutional, legal political and social reform

(Khan, 2008).

The book ‗Waziristan (1936-1937); The Problems of the North-West Frontier of

India and Their Solutions‘ written by Bruce (1938) gives most striking account of the

British era Waziristan region. The writer considers the non-involvement of local

population‘s in the political process and the absence of government led development

initiatives as the root causes of Waziristan conflict. The book while questioning the ethical

authority of the Waziristan military operations writes, ―Have we continued to develop the

country and its resources in the interests of the tribes?‖ (Bruce, 1938). The questions put

forward by the author appear to be applicable even during 21st century. The present day

militancy has the roots in the lack of development; which can be traced back to the

colonial sociopolitical system functioning across the tribal areas. The author argues ―there

is only one true remedy and that is to do away with all feeble make-shifts such as

Protected Areas and by the exercise of a just and civilizing control, secure safety of life

and property and development of the country. Thus only can we hope to secure the respect

of the tribes on both sides of the border and bring them definitely in on our side, a source

of strength instead of an ever present danger‖ (Bruce, 1938).

The book ‗Waging War in Waziristan: The British Struggle in the Land of Bin

Laden, 1849-1947 (Modern War Studies)‘ by Andrew (2010) has discussed the British

government policy towards Waziristan from the operational perspective. He believes that

the British government made sound strategic choices regarding Waziristan areas. The

author observes that the North Waziristan is one of the remote areas of Pakistan; inhibited

by frontier tribes who are fiercely independent and always remain united to fend off

external forces. He states that the area possesses mountainous scenery that has always

served as natural sanctuary to the Talibans with as much gun powder as it had during the

British era (Andrew, 2010). The author mentions that the Fakir of Ipi waged his guerrilla

struggle against the British from this area. Mr. Andrew who was soldier by profession has

explained that how British containment policy was pursued to control local tribes with the

help of local elements by combining the enticement and force to maintain control over

tribal areas (Andrew, 2010). He highlights the tribal spirit of Waziristan culture thereby

providing fresh perspective on the Bin Laden‘s chose to select Waziristan as base camp

for Al-Qaida. He forcefully claims that the measures adopted to appease the locals during

past are equally applicable even today. The author impresses upon the use of military force

40

as a last resort and instead advocates the need of balancing both the political and military

initiatives. The book carrying his British era solutions of the similar problems have

momentous value for present day policymakers and the military leadership engaged in

North Waziristan.

2.3 Studied Variables

2.3.1 Terrorism

The areas on either side of the Durand Line remained mostly dormant during the

four decades rule of Afghan King Zahir Shah. However, the environments of instability

served as catalyst for overthrow of his weak and fragmented government by the

communist People‘s Democratic Party during 1978. The religious components of the

Afghan society led by local and foreign mujahedeen, defied the radical reforms including

changes in land ownerships, implementation of new taxes, compulsory education for

women and their involvement in liberal activities that were un-acceptable in traditionally

conservative Afghan society (Sikorski, 1990). The armed forces of former Soviet Union

entered the Afghan land in 1979 to help her Afghan communist allies in Kabul being

apprehensive of the presence of an Islamic state along her soft underbelly of Muslim

majority states of Central Asia. This direct involvement of Soviet Union further

aggravated the situation resulting into increased armed resistance that eventually turned

into the call for Jihad. The Afghan resistance was brutally dealt by the red army

destroying the already deteriorating socioeconomic conditions of an under-developed

country. During the period of occupation spanning over around ten years, the red army and

their communist allies in Kabul allegedly killed about 1.3 million Afghans, destroyed

communication infrastructure and forced approximately 5.5 million Afghans to seek

refuge in Iran and Pakistan, with bulk of them settled in the tribal belt of Pakistan

('nyi'shtab, Grau, and Gress, 2002). The Soviet Union despite making heavy investments

in human and material resources never gained any unchecked access to the Pashtun areas

of Afghanistan (Edwards, 1998). The Soviet Union after unsuccessful decade long military

operations in Afghanistan withdrew her forces in February 1989 and left the communist

ally Najibullah‘s government to fend itself.

The Taliban cadre emerged from the madrassas established in the Pashtun refugee

camps established in the Pakistani tribal region (Commins, 2006). These madrassas

pursued and influenced their admitted students to adopt ―an ultraconservative approach to

41

social issues and politics‖ (Marden, 1998). The local population despite having differences

about religious fundamentalism espoused by Talibans fighters, rallied behind them for

their promise to eliminate the menace of narcotics, warlords and establish peace (Ahmed,

1999). The phenomenon of fighting by the theological students for ostensible rights and

freedom was not a new one. Winston Churchill spoke of a ―host of wandering Talib-ul-

Ilums who correspond with the theological students in Turkey and live free at the expense

of the people‖ (Johnson, 2008). The atmosphere and the tradition of virtuous students on

the quest for peace gave the religious students affinity with the Pashtun population.

Talibans fame spread rapidly giving them continuous success during their struggle for

consolidation of power.

The Talibanization has the roots in the Russian invasion of Afghanistan during

early 1980s when FATA; especially North Waziristan was used as training base for

Mujahedeen who were sponsored by both the United States and the Pakistan. The agency

turned into a hotbed of extremism with sprouting madrassas, plenty of modern weapons

and influx of Afghan refugees radically impacting the socioeconomics of the area. Even

after withdrawal of occupant Soviet forces and accomplishment of objectives of Afghan

jihad, most of the foreign fighters belonging to Arab countries settled in areas around

Miranshah and Mirali. Since they had been living with local population during the period

of Afghan jihad therefore were conveniently absorbed in the local society through

marriages (Gull, 2009). The emergence of Talibans from local madrassas was viewed

sympathetically due to their ethnic, ideological and religious connections along with their

cultural affinities. Subsequent to United States led military operation against Afghan

Talibans during 2002, radicalized components of the Waziristan society marshaled their

support for ousted Taliban rulers. Taliban sympathizers from the Waziristan community

have also been at odds with the country‘s armed forces which corresponding to NATO

military campaign commenced anti-terrorist operations across FATA. They covertly

started targeting the country‘s security forces and the government functionaries. Later

during the year 2007 local Taliban elements along with their sympathizers across FATA

joined hands to create an umbrella organization ‗Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan‘ with Baitullah

Mehsud as its first head (Roggio, 2009).

Few of the madrassas established in the North Waziristan during Afghan jihad

have mixed the religious and ethnic sentiments therefore serving as ideal recruiting ground

for Talibans. An expert in the field of madrassa studies; Mohammed Ali Siddiqi considers

42

the phenomenon as ‗an accident of history‘. The writer argues that after Soviet withdrawal

from Afghanistan the ‗leadership fell into the hands of Pashtuns because they had

successfully defended against communist occupation‘ (Afshar, Sample, and Wood, 2008).

Moreover due to lead role in defeating the Soviet forces, the madrassas developed a

reputation of institutions for recruitment of Mujahedeen; an important social capital

responsible for success or failures of Taliban based terrorism (Afshar, Sample, and Wood,

2008). The Pashtuns due to their ethnic and cultural peculiarities have always been the

most vulnerable group to fall prey to ethnic social engineering.

Ahmad (2013) in his article titled ―Insurgency in Fata: Causes and A Way

forward‖ observes that prior to the events of September 11th

, 2001, tribal areas of Pakistan

were peaceful. The author believes that the terrorism experienced by locals is not an

indigenous phenomenon but has trickled into the area from western side of the

international border after United States‘ failure to achieve her stated objectives. He

observes that the NATO forces have been carrying out counter insurgency operations in

the Pak – Afghan border areas without informing Pakistani counterparts that eventually

resulted militants‘ infiltration into the tribal areas of Pakistan (Ahmad, 2013). He believes

that the United States sabotaged the peace agreements reached between the state of

Pakistan and local Talibans by carrying out targeted drone strikes and media propaganda.

Such hostile external policies impeded the government efforts to harness local social

capital thus resulting into joining of terrorist outfits by local youth (Ahmad, 2013).

Leghari (2008) believes that prior to the Soviet invasion of the Afghanistan during

late seventies, the sociopolitical structure of tribal areas including North Waziristan was

two dimensional. The two dimensions included ‗tribal code‘ and the ‗state institutions‘

which over the years continued functioning peacefully (Leghari, 2008). The Soviet

invasion and the pulling out of the international community without installing a

rehabilitation mechanism in Afghanistan introduced the third and the most destructive

element of Talibanization or the terrorism (Leghari, 2008).

Hilali (2013) despite multiple politico-administrative complexities terms tribal

areas as the most peaceful regions in Pakistan ever since 1947. These areas remained

stable both during the period of Afghan occupation by communist forces and even during

the internal fighting among different Afghan warlords (Hilali, 2013). During this period

around five million Afghan refugees had been residing peacefully in the tribal areas of

43

Pakistan including area under study. The agency remained relatively calm even during the

initial phases of United States led attack on Afghan soil. However subsequent surge in

NATO led military operations in Afghanistan gradually developed a state of conflict in the

tribal areas particularly the North Waziristan agency (Hilali, 2013).

Mohammad (2003) believes that geography plays a defining role in bringing

prosperity to nations. He argues that the local tribes had always resisted any external

attempt to invade their land including efforts of Great Chengiz Khan, Taimur the Lame,

the Mughals, the Turks, the British Empire and the cold war rivals of former Soviet Union

and the United States (Mohammad, 2003). The writer notes that on behest of international

players during early 1980s, the agency was inappropriately turned into a recruitment and

training center to fight the communist armies (Mohammad, 2003). Subsequently the

international community left the region without instituting any rehabilitation program for

social reintegration of the fighters created to defeat communism.

The communities from tribal region of Pakistan are historically familiar with range

of weapons. The years of Afghan jihad however exposed them to the heavy weaponry

provided by western countries. During the same period foreign funded religious madrassas

that served as sources of recruitment for insurgents had also been mushrooming. However

the United States led attack on Afghanistan during 2002 has changed the geostrategic

environments of the area and the North Waziristan once allied operational base against

communist forces has now been become a safe haven for insurgents (Rana, 2009). On the

other hand, the residents have started believing that both Pakistan and United States are

destroying the peace of tribal areas and are responsible for locals‘ displacement (Hussain,

2012). Hussain (2012) believes that the presence of foreign forces on the Afghan land

resulting into refugees crises have fomented instability in the North Waziristan. He also

claims that militancy in the agency is mostly dominated by Haqqani network as Haqqani

network led by Afghan Taliban leader Siraj-ud-Din Haqqani has been using the agency as

its operating base to attack NATO forces (Hussain, 2012).

Mahmood (2017) claims that due to American interest in the region FATA has

become the battle zone and safe haven for militant. These militant have killed thousands of

tribal elders and caused displacement of hundreds of thousands from their respective areas

(Mahmood, 2017). It is evident from the history that residents of tribal areas of Pakistan

have resisted all outsiders including the Pakistan army. These tribes have offered great

sacrifices for the protection of Pakistan. Malik (2013) believes that the agency; like other

44

parts of FATA has been a place for recruiting and training of the militants to wage attack

on Afghanistan (Malik, 2013). Malik (2013) further writes that the government should

stop differentiating between good Taliban and bad Taliban. He argues that the outsiders

should be informed that the tribal people are fed up with war and now they want peace in

FATA, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Malik, 2013). He suggests that the Unites States and the

NATO should show leniency towards the militants to let them resettle in their areas and

the local community should be rehabilitated through compensation and providing

opportunities for livelihood (Malik, 2013).

Hussain (2009) writes that the Waziristan; predominately inhibited by Mehsud and

Wazir tribes has been the hot bed of TTP militancy and operating base of militatnt leader

Baitullah Mehsud until his death. He observes that Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI-F) headed

by Maulana Fazlur Rehman had been negotiating peace deals between the security forces

and militant organizations (Hussain, 2009). The author believes that the peace deals

facilitated by Maulana Fazlur Rehamn between the government and the South Waziristan

militants during 2004 had the far reaching effects because these allowed a breathing space

to local militants. They were able to institute a parallel Taliban styled policing system and

the local Sharia court system, thereby encouraging the spread of terrorism born conflict in

the North Waziristan (Hussain, 2009).

Khan Zeb Burki (2010) in his article ―Rise of Taliban in Waziristan‖ claims that

the culture of Jihad emerged in Waziristan during the era of British imperialism in late

19th

and early 20th

centuries. He believes that Talibanization of tribal society lies in the

country‘s Afghan policy followed during 1980s (Burki, 2010). The author argues that both

internal and external elements who socially engineered the local youth to recruit fighters to

defeat communist forces in Afghanistan are responsible for present day turmoil (Burki,

2010). In the absence of planned rehabilitation strategy these Taliban fighters turned into

an organized force and challenged the national integration in the aftermath of Unites States

intervention in Afghanistan. He notes that the Pakistan government under external

obligations started military operations in both South and North Waziristan agencies to

control the militants which in turn developed a concept of ‗defensive jihad’ in Pakistan

(Burki, 2010). Initially the local militants organized themselves under the leadership of

Naik Muhammad; a militant commander from South Waziristan. After his death in a drone

attack during 2004, they selected Abdullah Mehsud as his successor to expand

Talibanization to other parts of tribal region. To achieve their objective they appointed

45

local commanders for different factions including Baitullah Mehsud group, Maulvi Nazir

group, Hafiz Gul Bahader group, Sadiq Noor group, Punjabi Talibans and many other

small groups that developed after launch of military operations. Later during 2007, an

organized structure of local Talibans was formed with the name of Tehreek-e-Taliban

Pakistan (TTP) under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud (Burki, 2010).

Another book titled ‗Dynamics of Taliban Insurgency in FATA’ by Muhammad

Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, and Abdul Basit (2010) gives a detailed account of

Talibansization in FATA in the aftermath of United States led military attack on Afghan

land. The book has discussed various historical events especially the withdrawal of Soviet

forces from Afghanistan that created power vacuum enticing local warlords and their

transnational sympathizers to fill this vacuum. The book has also described how Talibans

militants subsequently moved into the North Waziristan after United States led attack in

Afghanistan during 2002 that toppled their government in Kabul. The authors (2010) have

also explained how sociopolitical vacuum in the agency helped militants to re-establish

their strongholds left after Afghan jihad. They have also attempted to explore various

dynamics of terrorism driven insurgency in the agency. The book also explains the host of

factors that caused surge in militancy including the state neglect, poor socioeconomic

conditions and ideological influence of foreign militants on local terrorists. The authors

(2010) have also given different counterinsurgency perspectives with special focus on the

country‘s tribal areas and their regional implications. Whereas the term Terrorism has

been defined as ―Terrorism is an anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action,

employed by (semi-) clandestine individual, group or state actors, for idiosyncratic,

criminal or political reasons, whereby – in contrast to assassination – the direct targets of

violence are not the main targets. The immediate human victims of violence are generally

chosen randomly (targets of opportunity) or selectively (representative or symbolic

targets) from a target population, and serve as message generators. Threat- and violence-

based communication processes between terrorist (organization), (imperilled) victims, and

main targets are used to manipulate the main target (audience(s)), turning it into a target of

terror, a target of demands, or a target of attention, depending on whether intimidation,

coercion, or propaganda is primarily sought‖ (UNODC, 2007). In this study the term

Terrorism has been operationalized as establishment of foreign funded madrassas,

Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars and successive peace agreements with the local

terrorists.

46

2.3.2 Civic Services

The North Waziristan if studied through the lens of history amply signifies that the

area has seen frequent internal tribal feuds and numerous large scale military expeditions

against local population. These battles in the absence of any socioeconomic infrastructure

further worsened the already fragile social structure of the agency. The recent environment

of terrorism born conflict is being wrongly related to the tribal notion of independence.

Colonel Bruce (1938) in his book has cited his discussion with the famous Raider ‗Khonia

Khel‘ to disregard the erroneous belief that the headmen of the Waziristan tribes cannot

control their tribes due to their independent nature. After his discussion with the ‗Raider -

Khonia Khel‘ he concluded that the absence of requisite socioeconomic incentives in the

agency had resulted into the culture of militancy faced by the British government. While

talking to Colonel Bruce the local raider Khonia Khel remarked that ―Sahib, I have three

wives and five strapping sons like my-self, and several sisters with large families. You

have stopped me raiding in …as in the Tochi valley. Now I hear you are going to stop me

raiding in the Khaisora. You will not even allow me to raid in Birmal or Khost, although

these valleys are in Afghanistan. There has been no rain and so no grazing for my flocks.

How, then, am I to live?‖ (Bruce, 1938).

Hoffmann (2009) in his work has deliberated upon the causes of underdevelopment

of the tribal areas part of Pakistan. He observes that the geostrategic location of the agency

has turned into a source of agony for local population because different terrorist groups

have settled there (Hoffmann, 2009). In the absence of effective governance mechanism,

these groups have assumed the control of the area. The terrorists have killed scores of

tribal elders thus destroying the traditional conflict controlling mechanism and

consequently established unchallenged authority. The author argues that these insurgent

groups engage the unemployed and uneducated local youth for different terrorist activities

on handful wages (Hoffmann, 2009). He comments that the area has turned out to be base

for terrorism inside and outside Pakistan. He also suggests that the strategy to fight the war

against terrorism needs to be reviewed and the existing socioeconomic conditions should

be improved by eradicating poverty and providing employments and education

(Hoffmann, 2009).

Noor-ul-Haq (2010) explains that the terrorism is consequent of poverty, absence

of livelihood opportunities and sense of deprivation. He believes that the persistent policy

of neglect pursued by the state afforded opportunity to the external hostile powers to fuel

47

the militancy especially in the North Waziristan (Haq, 2010). He also claims that popular

misperception regarding ethical justification of war on terrorism created by radical

elements of the society to promote their financial interests has also contributed to surge in

terrorism. The writer believes that the ―militants are pursuing a foreign agenda of

destabilization of Pakistan by using the name of Islam to declare it a failed State so that its

nuclear assets could be captured‖ (Haq, 2010). The socioeconomic deprivations of local

population especially lack of basic amenities of life including health facilities, education

facilities, water and sanitation systems and the governance failures to introduce politico-

administrative reforms in the area has led to the emergence of radicalism. The terrorist

organizations therefore have been successful to engage the local youth along with the

distressed elements of Afghan jihad (Haq, 2010).

Rakists (2008) in his article writes that Melmastia (unconditional hospitality) as an

important cultural tribute of the tribal population which is granted to whoever demands.

Majority of the insurgents including foreigners have taken refuge under this cultural code

as a guest, a criminal, a friend or an enemy. He observes that when government of

Pakistan demanded the handing over of these foreign elements, the locals refused to do so

which ultimately led to the military operations in this region (Rakists, 2008).

Many scholars believe that the problems of militancy are generally created by the

system of poor governance and the denial of relief to the citizens through routine political,

legal, administrative and economic processes. They claim that sense of deprivation among

local youth and the compromise on merit, excellence, and professionalism promote

militancy as the citizens find no customary channel to redress their grievances (Alam,

Muhammad, Kifayat, and Ahmad, 2014). They also observe that Talibanization had been

growing amidst political instability and ethnic tensions. The authors note that suicide

bomber is the most horrendous fact of this culture where raw minds of the local youth are

prepared to kill innocent population besides taking their own life. They say that an

unemployed local youth finds a job to earn living, an ideology to live with and a new

militant family among which they feel security and sense of belongingness (Alam,

Muhammad, Kifayat, and Ahmad, 2014). The writers argue that in Pakistan the outcome

of journey of extremism is a prejudiced culture being forced on a society which is eager to

live a productive and modern life.

Crises Group Asia Report (2009) on FATA militancy has highlighted different

reasons of backwardness of tribal people in terms of their culture and traditions. It is

48

evident from the history that several regimes in Pakistan have exploited the tribal people

by using religious card and motivated them for jihad for their political gains (Crises Group

Report, 2009). The report claims that following the United States pressure Pakistan

withdrew her support to Talibans that turned them against Pakistan being the front ally in

war on terrorism. This shift in state policy has created anarchy, exploitation, uncertainty,

radicalisms, religious narrow mindedness and sectional division which has ruined the

peaceful and very fabric of the region (Crises Group Report, 2009). The report also claims

that the non-availability of jobs, educational, skills training, and lack of entertainment

facilities have also helped extremists groups in hiring of unemployed local youth.

North Waziristan can be described with high poverty and unemployment indicators

with undeveloped socioeconomic infrastructure. After about eighty years of the incident

cited by Colonel Bruce (1938), still there is a need to acknowledge that terrorism and

socioeconomic reconstruction are two mutually dependent phases of societal development.

Post Crisis Need Assessment report (2010) outlines socioeconomic development details of

the area from 2003/4 to 2008/9. The report claims that during five year period between

2003/4 and 2008/9 growth was strong, poverty rates were falling towards convergence

with the rest of Pakistan, unemployment was abating and public spending was rising in

support of better services (PCNA, 2010). However intensification of conflict in mid-2009

reversed these advances and the deterioration in security, weak rule of law and absence of

public services greatly undermined the economic development (PCNA, 2010). This poor

socioeconomic state of the agency is directly linked to the terrorism driven conflict. The

report reads that comparatively small shocks translate into large increases in destitution

and poverty rates, as people close to the poverty line slip. Thus the large shocks associated

with conflict or escalation will doubtless have caused much hardship and increased

poverty rates substantially (PCNA, 2010).

Riaz Khan (2011) in his article claims that the government policies and

international pressure are responsible for radicalization of the Pakistani society. The major

factors responsible for the polarization are the division of the society on the basis of

sectarian line and poor economics which caused radicalization of local youth (Khan,

2011). The state and non-state actors have exploited religion as an instrument to mobilize

youth to serve the international interests. The author however believes that the

socioeconomic factors are one of the reasons of radicalization among local youth and not

the main cause (Khan, 2011).

49

Chugtai (2013) referred to different aspects of tribal areas where poverty ratio is

very high and also considered it the most marginalized area of Pakistan and has remained

neglected by successive governments. Due to poor socioeconomics and lacked social

amenities activities like health, education etc the area has become a breeding ground for

terrorism (Chugtai, 2013). He claims that the recent terrorism is not the function of rigid

culture and highly conservative traditions but is mainly due to its geographical location

between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Chugtai, 2013). The great game in the region kept the

area isolated and neglected in political terms thus pushing the tribal communities at mercy

of warlords. He observes that the locals are governed through old FCR which has always

benefited the local leaders (blue eyed) Maliks (Chugtai, 2013).

Azam (2009) in his work has highlighted that since creation of Pakistan FATA had

never been treated like other parts of the country. He believes that the FCR, poverty,

illiteracy and bad governance kept the tribal people away from the fruits of modernization

(Azam, 2009). The local Maliks and warlords exploited this situation. The author claims

that illiteracy and ignorance of civil as well as legal rights including rights of existence,

freedom, protection, self-respect, assets and liberty of thought, movement, manifestation

and relationship place tribal people at the mercy of extremist groups for the recruitment as

an insurgents (Azam, 2009). These environments created extremism and militancy which

have destroyed tribal society. He observes that majority of the local population want

change which can be brought forth by those having power to take positive steps towards

the socioeconomic uplift of the area.

Tariq Khan (2013) in his article has mentioned that the issue of violence has

expanded its roots in Pakistani culture due to numerous causes. The major causes of

extremism in North Waziristan are the nonexistence of commercial opportunities, uneven

access to opportunities for social and economic utilization, bribery, faulty education

system, poverty, joblessness, illiteracy, easy access to firearms, bad governance, instable

geopolitical situation, side lining of the rural areas and lack of justice (Khan, 2013).

Post Crisis Need Assessment of KP and FATA (2011) has reported that violence

and militancy are due to the reasons of poverty, unemployment, bad governance, low

human development, poor infrastructure, acute shortage of basic services, economic

backwardness. The report claims that the terrorist outfits pay high salaries ranging from 15

to 20 thousands per month to local youth and are controlling the smuggling of drugs and

arms (PCNA., 2011). The pro militants are main beneficiary of this business with

50

opponent groups as the obvious loser in this game thus increasing unemployment in the

area. The report also claims that due to militancy the government is facing problem in

creating employment opportunities to increase lawful livelihood environment (PCNA.,

2011). The report (2011) suggests that attention must be given to local youth, women and

job creation opportunities to achieving long lasting peace.

Sandhu (2013) in his thesis mentions that majority of tribal youth is illiterate, have

low access to justice, no employment opportunities, and low income and therefore are

prone to join ranks of the militants. He argues that the FCR based colonial system of

political administration has caused marginalization in the agency that led to poor

governance culminating in terrorism born conflict (Sandhu, 2013). He finds that those who

challenged the writ of the state through terrorism also include socially deprived

individuals with no access to fundamental facilities like health, education and

employment. He claims that there were many who joined terrorist organizations due to

lack of education and others for ideological deprivations. The author further argued that

the poor system of governance had also contributed to the emergence of terrorism led

conflict in the area under research (Sandhu, 2013).

Michael (2007) has argued that poor socioeconomic conditions have developed the

sense of deprivation among local residents. This sense of dispossession thus pushed the

local youth into the arm of militancy by joining different terrorist organizations to manage

their livelihood (Michael, 2007). The author claims that the government has not initiated

any development project to bring about positive social change in the society. The militants

have been regularly targeting the existing educational facilities because they contemplate

these facilities as the promoters of western culture (Michael, 2007). Lack of regular

education and unchecked madrassa education supervised by radical elements of the

community are responsible for not only promoting criminal activities but also suicide

bombings (Michael, 2007).

Khan (2014) writes that madrassas have turned into the homes for poor and the

deserted children. He notes that in the absence of requisite formal education facilities, the

local madrassa have been attracting the children from poor families due to free education,

boarding and lodging facilities (Khan, 2014). These madrassas out of which mostly

established during the Afghan jihad have been drawing Talibs (students). The author while

commenting on the role of madrassas says that since 1980s, the Taliban leadership has

51

graduated from these madrassas and therefore the world‘s perception about their role as

promoters of terrorism is difficult to dismiss (Khan, 2014).

Khan (2008) in his work claims that the tribal region has remained neglected by

the Federal Government resulting into poverty with high illiteracy. He says that sixty

percent of the local population lives below poverty line (Khan., 2008). He claims that lack

of socioeconomic development has pushed the locals to adopt smuggling of weapons and

narcotics to earn their livings. However, after 9/11, he believes the locals joined different

militant outfits for their livelihood (Khan, 2008).

According to Bergen and Tiedemann (2013) the armed struggles in FATA can be

identified as transnational magnitudes that have introduced smuggling, terrorism,

militancy and drugs culture badly affecting not only Pakhtunkhwa but across the country.

The network of these extremists and terrorists in tribal region of Pakistan should be broken

as it is disturbing not only FATA but other parts of the country as well (Bergen and

Tiedemann, 2013). To address this sensitive issue there is need to launch wide ranging

social, economic, legal and democratic changes. In this study the term civic services has

been operationalized as lack of formal education, lack of employment opportunities,

absence of concerted development efforts, lack of water and sanitations schemes, absence

of technical skills, non-existent of advance health and banking facilities.

2.3.3 Poor Governance

Different historians have discussed the system of governance in the tribal region in

the aftermath of military expeditions sent to these areas from 1897 to 1898. Even after

series of military operations there was no stopping of criminal activities in the tribal region

which led to adoption of closed border policy and establishment of new agencies including

North Waziristan under newly proposed tribal administrative law (FCR) of 1901 (Rakists,

2008). According to the provisions of this law, the tribes were allowed a degree of

freedom to live by their tribal traditions while accepting the establishment of military

cantonments and check posts in their land. Political administration system in the agency is

based on the colonial mindset (Rakists, 2008). He argues that the problems of terrorism

and militancy has no relationship with the external interferences but is linked to the deep-

rooted problem of poor governance (Rakists, 2008).

The tribal region has a unique system of governance which is not being practiced

in any other part of the country. The system is a mix of formal State laws and informal

52

local codes based on tribal traditions and values commonly known as the Pashtunwali.

Traditional tribal institutions of Jirga, Hujra and Lashkar etc. run through these tribal

codes. Truth, hospitality, cooperation, appeals for forgiveness and revenge are the basic

tenets of Pakhtunwali. These codes according to few have not been adjusted properly with

the passage of time, whereas others believe that these codes have been rendered obsolete

by regional non-state actors (Fayyaz, 2012). They established their own rules and

regulations for which there might be numerous explanations. Firstly, these cultural codes

and the institutions might have not been tuned correctly in relation to the passage of time

and therefore have been replaced by the non-state actors. The incorrect adjustments, false

intentions and creation of local codes and institutions can be best understood by division

of Jirga into Hakumati Jirga (Political Administrations sponsored council of Maliks) and

Qaumi Jarga (locally made council of elders). The tribal people are not ready to make

compromises on ending their cultural codes. The elimination of these tribal codes and the

institutions can be properly understood with the statistics about target killings of over 500

tribal Maliks including local Lashkar leaders. The validity of Jirga decisions is rarely

questioned as tribal people uses and abides by the verdicts passed by Jirgas (Ali, 2003).

The centuries old system of governance in the tribal belt has failed to provide

justice, civil and human rights and the local communities are paying the cost of

international conspiracies. Terrorist groups from different parts of the globe have

established their safe heavens in the area to carry out terrorist activities from this soil

(Tahir, 2009). They have challenged the writ of the state and established their own parallel

system of governance (Tahir, 2009).

Human Rights Commission Report of Pakistan (2005) describes the effectiveness

of Frontier Crimes Regulations -1901 that lays out the system of governance and

administrative structure in FATA. After independence in 1947, the Pakistan inherited FCR

based system that is being practiced without any amendment till today. It is generally

believed that certain clauses of FCR made it easier for militants to turn FATA into a hub

for their activities. The fault lies with the clauses of FCR that do not protect fundamental

human needs, dignity and social justice (HRCP, 2005). FCR is regarded as draconian law

with provisions that disregard and deny even most fundamental rights to the local

communities (HRCP, 2005). These constitutional rights state that citizens must be allowed

access to due legal procedure and also must be protected from torturous captivity that

53

violates self-respect; and all citizens must be granted equal citizenship rights as required

by the law; clauses 9, 10, 14, 24 and 25 of the FCR (HRCP, 2005). They also observe that

due to difference of opinion regarding extent and nature of reforms, no step has been taken

yet to establish an effective politico-administrative system in the area.

According to the Asia Report (2006), terrorism born conflict in the tribal region is

challenging threat for national and the international peace alike. The report blamed

General Musharraf‘s government for failing to carry out military operations against

terrorists hiding in the tribal areas. The report (2006) claims that this policy stimulated

unrest and lawlessness in FATA, permitting militants to form a parallel Taliban style

government and spread their influence into other parts of the country. The report (2006)

further advocates that the counter insurgency strategy requires sincere steps towards

normalcy by introducing democratic reforms and socioeconomic developments. The report

(2006) claims that the government is not interested in socioeconomic transformation and

restructuring of institutions and instead always used the excuse of tribe‘s respect for

independence and their cultural values to maintain status quo. There is no explanation of

holding FCR where civil and political rights are not honored.

Aziz (2008) claims that the tribal belt is difficult to govern as all economic and

political activities are out of the governmental control and the topography helps them. He

writes that the black economy in the shape of Hawala system (illegal transaction of

money), smuggling of different articles is facilitated through Afghan transit trade (Aziz,

2008). He has suggested that to foster peace and stability in the region, local population

should be involved in government jobs. He also advocates that the non-local officers

should be replaced with the locals because they lack awareness about tribal code and the

ground realities of this area (Aziz, 2008).

Rashid (2008) writes that almost for last three decades the tribal areas and Pakistan

are facing war like situations which have directly or indirectly received repercussion from

these events. The area is confronting multidimensional problems like law and order

situation, insurgency, poverty, unemployment, civil and legal rights. Now it is the right

time to decide and bring about changes in the area ignored since 1947 (Rashid, 2008). He

writes that collective wisdom is required for development of peace and stability in the

area. The problem is to involve all the stake holders who are the main players to make

consensus for the sake of peace in the tribal belt which will help for socioeconomic uplift

54

of the area (Rashid, 2008). He believes that if decision is not welcomed and positively

implemented by locals it will have negative effects for the entire region.

Wazir (2012) in his work states that ever since the colonial era, the tribal region is

being governed under FCR. He observes that under this law, the rights including human

rights, political rights and legal rights are not similar as in the other areas of the Pakistan.

He claims that since its implementation, FCR has remained a problem for the local

communities. He argues that due to indifferent attitude of the State, the area has remained

undeveloped because of the outdated systems and laws of the colonial periods.

Mathew (2005) in his work writes that the system of administration is a gift of

colonial mindset. He claims that the problems in FATA are not related to the foreign

interference but is related to the governance (Mathew, 2005). Socioeconomics of the

residents of FATA has significantly changed due to remittances from Middle East due to

war in Afghanistan (Mathew, 2005). He also claims that the presence of a political

vacuum is responsible for extremists to exploit the situation (Mathew, 2005).

In this study the term poor governance has been operationalized in the context of

outdated traditional politico-administrative system, continuous socio-economic neglect,

absence of effective border control and poor politico-administrative system,

2.3.4 Social Restoration

The definitions of social change and restoration are extremely varied due to its

application to social phenomenon which is a process with varied dimensions that unfold at

varying levels of generalization. The phenomenon of social change and restoration studies

the transformations in cultural, demographic, environmental or the structural character of

any social system. It also studies the evolution of the social system from one to another

form (Greenfield, 2009). According to Moor (1963) the social changes are the important

changes in social structures to include social action patterns and interactions. Moor in his

definition of the social change has integrated many forms of structure expressions

including cultural phenomenon, norms and values (Moore, 1963). Gheorghe Fulga (2003)

in his definition of social change argues that it refers to eternal alterations of the elements

of social behavior, social structures and culture (Fulga, 2003).

According to conventional Marxist theory, the emblematic of conflict perception,

the social changes transpire through conflicts that are full of socioeconomic uncertainties.

55

Marx with economic point of view identifies the relationship social turmoil bears with the

means of production while exploring the absurdity between forces and production

relations. He differentiates several stages of economic evolution: the stage of the closed

family economy; the stage of urban economy; the stage of national economy (Totterdill

and Judith, 2014). Socioeconomic restructuring and modernization is often associated with

social changes especially gender balance in employment. The modernization of societies

initiates two conflicting processes; the need for specialization of human resources and the

need for cooperation to manufacture competitively. It is possible to restore cohesion by re-

institutionalizing the spirit of concord through national and international institutions.

The phenomenon of socioeconomic development is directly linked to the process

of social change which means making the life of masses better. During the present day

social environments, the meaning of better life for majority of the human beings is to meet

the basic needs like sufficient and healthy food, a secure housing place and dignified

social treatment. In-addition to discussed social needs, the meaning of development varies

for different societies basing on their cultural perspectives. The development objectives

and the implementation strategies are linked to the popular and democratic perceptions.

There are certain societies that consider the social change as a most wanted goal but still

few do not agree with the notion. However those considering the social change as their

intended goal for better life still broadly disagree on the modes of positive social change

leading to development.

The development may assist in achieving various sociopolitical objectives

including conflict with essentially democratic norm that means ‗a better life for all’. The

degree of development is measured by the living standards that apart from counting the

personal possessions also include the public services enjoyed. The standards of living

comprise of numerous components like health, education, water and sanitations systems,

the agricultural and the industrial productions , the transport and housing amenities and

many more (Naqvi, Khan, and Zainab, 2012). The development is essentially a multi-

dimensional phenomenon that is incessant in nature wherein the participation of local

actors is a prelude to control violence and to carryout necessary socioeconomic change.

Thence to address the root causes of conflict which existed in the North

Waziristan, there is a dire need to institute an all-inclusive rehabilitation strategy in the

environments created after successful security operations. The rehabilitation strategy must

cover important facets of psychosocial development including resettlement of displaced

56

communities, economic recovery and political reforms. This study research while

considering peculiar tribal values will offer desired policy options for post conflict

initiatives to mainstream the conflict ridden agency.

2.3.5 Rehabilitation and Economic Recovery

Healthy and educated youth plays an important and positive role in the

development of a nation. Majority of the FATA residents are young who have remained

isolated from fruit of development. World Bank (2008) reports that thousands of locals got

displaced due to terrorism born conflict with most of them suffered human losses and

injuries due to militant activities. The killing of pro-government Maliks and destruction of

educational infrastructure left the students with healthy commitment and therefore they

joined insurgents for to earn livelihood. These environments of conflict experienced in

North Waziristan during last decade thus multiplied the existing illiteracy and poverty

(Bank, 2008). Therefore it is recommended that FATA should be treated like other parts of

the Pakistan. The World Bank report suggests that development projects like exploration

of mineral resources, industrialization and basic infrastructure will minimize the extent of

unemployment and ultimately militancy (Bank, 2008).

Armed struggles in tribal areas as transnational magnitudes have introduced

smuggling, terrorism, militancy and drug culture that have badly affected not only

Pakhtunkhwa but also the whole country. To address these problems there is need to

initiate wide ranging social, economic, legal and democratic changes (Marie, 2011). The

socioeconomic development can be achieved by mainstreaming FATA by extending

democracy and introducing systems of local governments.

Although Lucas (2012) in his scholarly work ‗Waziristan to Tibet‘ has mostly

focused on the aspects related to military campaigns in the tribal areas, however he had

also discussed the British policy of dealing the local population. The author cites

Brandeners‘ who believed that root cause of the conflict was lack of development resolve

by the government of British India (Lucas, 2012). Brandener said that ―we seem to have

hoped that civilization would simply rub off by contact with us. But it hasn‘t happened‖

(Lucas, 2012). The writer also shares the Brandener‘ views who believed that only

concrete socioeconomic development initiatives will effectively arrest the culture of

militancy (Lucas, 2012). The author also narrates Arthur who commented that ―In the long

run, the only way forward is to civilize the beggars to the point where all this is a thing of

57

past‖ (Lucas, 2012). Although author did identify reasons of volatile situation in the

agency but did not suggest any development strategy, thus enabling the researcher to

explore different options for socioeconomic development of the agency.

The relationship between socioeconomic wellbeing and the development supports

the notion that substantial development activities should be carried out for improving local

socioeconomic conditions which will bring peace and social stability in the area. It is

however important that during the process of development the opportunities for positive

exploration of the local socioeconomic potentials should not be slipped away in the post

conflict environments. The policy research paper developed under the World Bank has

termed the conflict as opposite to the development thereby meaning that conflict is

‗development in reverse‘ (Chen and Renayl, 2010). The report also claims that the

countries become safe after successful development, and in case development failures the

countries face the bigger risks of ‗being caught in a conflict trap‘ (Chen and Renayl,

2010). This principle of ‗development in reverse‘ fully applies to the North Waziristan

where conflict has further worsened the socioeconomic conditions of the locals. Huge

budgetary allocations are being made without outlining comprehensive policy options and

correct identification of socioeconomic development sectors. Therefore different

initiatives in hand have failed to produce any tangible improvement in the socioeconomic

indicators of the agency. Marx argues that the development and conflict are mutually

dependent phenomenon, in other words the conflict is inherent to the process of

development. Collier (2003) refers the conflict as the motor that drives development

forward and resources are redistributed to different classes and people. The failure of

development efforts in providing the essential retaining structure results in poverty, which

can provide the essential framework for renewal of violence (Collier, 2003). Therefore to

foster social stability and make the rehabilitation sustainable the rebuilding of the social

capital coupled with the livelihood opportunities and the capacity for economic growth

should be enhanced.

The employment of youth is most important factor for any successful rehabilitation

strategy in post conflict environments. The above discussion entails drafting a

comprehensive socioeconomic development and politico-administrative reformation

strategy that should serve as retaining mechanism to take the agency out of recently

experienced turmoil. In this regard, the government has instituted FATA Development

Authority (FDA) that has been assigned the task to undertake rehabilitation measures in

58

post conflict environments with the objective to achieve socioeconomic stability and

lasting peace. The desired objectives however may be oblivious without consulting local

stakeholders during the planning and execution of planned initiatives (Khan, 2014). In

post conflict settings, the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase which largely depends on

local community and not the security or other law enforcing agencies can be launched

immediately after or even during the culmination stages of the security operations.

The rehabilitation by developing stakes of local community will transform the

militancy into socioeconomic competitiveness. Frederick (2007) in his study under Silk

Road Program ―The Key to Success in Afghanistan; A Modern Silk Road Strategy‖ has

highlighted the significance of socioeconomic incentives viz-a-viz terrorism. The study

while mentioning the importance of economic activities claims that, ―Yet the continuing

flow of Pakistani trucks ferrying NATO supplies from Karachi to Afghanistan through the

epicenter of the Pashtun insurgency is proof that commercial activity can flourish amid

instability. Any gains that militants would make from disrupting these vital supply lines,

are strategically outweighed by the fact that local tribes derive significant income from the

traffic. As long as such incentive structures hold, local populations have shown themselves

ready to prioritize commerce over political violence‖ (Frederick, 2007). They have found

that despite terrorism and the poor law and order situation the trade activities taking place

through this area have not been affected which reflect socioeconomic stakes of the local

community.

The socioeconomic growth will bring sociopolitical stability and will minimize the

existing social space to the terrorist organizations. Though geostrategic settings largely

affect any sociopolitical change in any area, yet the strategic significance alone out-

weights the discussed. The socioeconomic development programs in the form of

development of communication infrastructure in the agency have provided necessary

stimulating pulse for subsequent development. However in order to achieve the desired

objectives of socioeconomic transformation, these initiatives should focus on multiple

areas. The most relevant observation made by Bruce (1938) reads that ―In Waziristan, if

we stand content with roads and fail to develop the country and its resources for the

benefit of the tribes, we shall be failing in our mission‖. The development activities are

therefore positive conclusions of sociopolitical conflicts to generate socioeconomic

activities to induce requisite social stability. In other words, the conflicts eventually lead to

social stability and integration of social system (Strasser, 1981).

59

2.4 Research Gap

The research has been carried out to explore different policy options for post

conflict rehabilitation activities in the North Waziristan. Although a voluminous literature

is available on terrorism related subjects including the nature, psychology and sociology of

terrorism, however very limited literature is available on rehabilitation of the conflict

ridden North Waziristan agency in the post conflict environments. The primary reason for

this scarcity of relevant literature is the inaccessibility and the terrorism born conflict

conditions that have persisted until very recently in the agency. Highly conservative and

traditionalist nature of the Waziristan society is yet another important factor that might be

responsible for this absence of scholarly work related to the rehabilitation dimension. The

detailed review of existing literature has concluded that FCR, socioeconomic deprivation

of the tribal area, system of governance and regional geostrategic settings have always

been few of the major challenges to mainstream the area under study. Through this

research an endeavour has been made to sufficiently bridge the existing research gap by

studying the socioeconomic conditions of the agency before suggesting a viable

rehabilitation framework including different policy options for socioeconomic and

political restoration in post conflict environments of the North Waziristan.

2.5 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives detailed historical perspective of the North Waziristan agency.

It also offers an in-depth review of the existing literature to study causes and

circumstances that led to terrorism driven state of conflict. Apart from reviewing the

literature related to tribal culture and socioeconomics of the area, the chapter covers

scholarly works covering the important dimension of governance. Later on this chapter

reviews the literature covering social change and development followed by literature on

rehabilitation and reconstruction. Towards the end this chapter has also identified the

research gap to serve as foundation for the research.

60

CHAPTER 3

CONCEPTS AND THEORETICAL

FRAMEWORK

61

CONCEPTS AND THEORETICAL

FRAMEWORK

This chapter provides conceptual and analytical frameworks under the overall

ambit of theoretical research framework. The conceptual framework aims at to explain

different concepts including Pakhtunwali, Terrorism, Conflict and Rehabilitation for better

understanding of the general readers. The theoretical framework presents an introduction

to the Theory of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach leading to

conceptualize the policy options for post conflict rehabilitation.

3.1 The Concepts

3.1.1 Tribal Culture

The cultural structure of the Waziri society is primarily defined by a set of

customs, conventions and above all a code of honour called "Pakhtunwali". This code

―Pakhtunwali‖ serves as the bedrock for the arch of Pakhtun social structure. This social

code has greatly influenced their actions throughout the recorded history and has always

been held sacred by the Pakhtun generations. Pakhtunwali rules the life of a Pakhtun from

his cradle to grave encompassing all sociopolitical and even to some extent religious

affairs. In the Pakhtun culture the adherence to the Pakhtunwali is non-negotiable and

non-observance of the code of Pakhtunwali is regarded as disgraceful. The violator

himself or even along with his family members may face expulsion from the tribe. The

Pakhtunwali stems from the tribal principles of eccentricity, social equality, nobility,

hospitality and the grant of asylum (Taj, 2011) . The concept of Pakhtunwali is epitomized

by six chief obligations out of which four help in ending the hostilities whereas last two

may breed fresh hostilities.

The first element of Pakhtunwali ‗Jirgah’ or the council of elders is a key

instrument to end hostilities and settle tribal disputes. Jirgah is generally comprised of

elderly or greybeards of the tribal community having immense knowledge of the local

sociocultural traditions. The council of elders arbitrates the tribal disputes between

opposing parties to conclude an acceptable solution through lengthy deliberations. When

decisions have been reached unanimously then these become bindings and are

implemented firmly (Ali, 2010).

62

The ―Nanawatey and Panah‖ (entering the house)‖ or repentance over the past

enmity or hostile behaviour and granting of asylum are key cultural trait of the Wazir

society. The individuals with all the talks of honour or self-esteem do not hesitate to visit

his enemy‘s Hujra or the house to seek forgiveness. When wrong has been done to

someone, the offender along with the village elders visits the aggrieved family. The

accused as a symbol of reparation and gratitude slaughters a lamb at the door of the

aggrieved family. The apology rendered by the accused is willingly accepted; with honour

and dignity. The Teega or stone planting means cease fire to end hostility in order to evade

bloodshed between opposing tribes. The tribes make war but always adhere to the rules of

the game as well. In this social custom a stone demarcating the boundary between two

groups is planted in the ground. The groups either with mutual assent or through

intervention by tribal Jirgah make truce for a particular span of time. The provisions of

treaty are honoured firmly by opposing parties (Ali, 2010). The Melmastya or hospitality

is one of the most sublime and noble features of the Pakhtun culture. They feel pride in

providing food, extending protection and offering abode to their guests as long as the guest

desires. In Melmastya which is closely linked to the Panah as well, the safety and security

of the guest is also the host‘s responsibility.

The facet of Badal (revenge) in the Pakhtun culture largely contributes to the

hostility. In order to be called a true Pakhtun, the aggrieved must take revenge. According

to Pakhtun proverb; Badal is not delayed if taken even after 100 years. All those who in

accordance with the demand of Pakhtunwali fail or are not willing to take revenge lose

their respect and honour among the community. In fact, those who fail to take revenge

make themselves prone to Paighor, which means taunting (Spain, 1962). However, the

Nanawaty as already explained can avoid the Badal. The Nang; which according to

Pakhtunwali means courage, valour and honour for a Pakhtun, is yet another important

element of Pakhtun culture. The Nang while leading to agnatic enmity among first cousins

also demands from a person to abide by other principles of Pakhtunwali like Jirgah,

Panah, Teega, Nanawaty and Melmastya.

The declaring of the Nang (honour) and Badal (revenge) as the fundamentals of

Pakhtunwali by few of the writers has greatly harmed both to the very notion of

Pakhtunwali and to the overall Pakhtun image. For instance, while discussing the nature

and culture of Pakhtun tribes one appears to be obsessed with the facet of Nang. The

British when confronted with the Tsarist Russia pioneered the approach adopted by few

63

writers (Ahmad, 1976). In-fact the British imperialist power used this jargon in order to

cover up her administrative inability to manage this difficult region. Therefore in words of

Caroe (1958), the British government could do nothing but to plead to the weird and

embellished bravery of local tribes.

Cultural inquiry of Waziristan tribes particularly Wazirs demonstrates that they

unlike other Pakhtun tribes of the region are embedded into a distinctive culture ‗Da

Waziro Narkh (Customs traditional to Wazirs)‘. Wazirs firmly observe ostracism by exile

in order to secure the safety of tribe and autonomous status that stems from the sense of

freedom. The tribes fervently and impatiently protect their ‗freedom and independence‘

under their cultural code of Pakhtunwali.

In the culture of Waziristan tribes, the essence of freedom and independence stems

out from individual to clan further extending from clan to Wazir tribe and then

subsequently to the tribes of FATA. In the Waziri culture ‗har saray khan dey‘ (every man

is king) they instead of living a disrespectful life will prefer to die. In this self-regulating

Waziri society everybody is welcomed, granted sanctuary and extended protection with

the preconditions of showing reverence for local culture and tribal liberty. In Waziristan

under the code of Pakhtunwali refuge or sanctuary is granted to all regardless of their cast,

religion and social status after sociopolitical surrender to the Pakhtunwali. On the other

hand if local values and tribal authority are not accepted then ‗Badal‘ or revenge comes

into play to seek total acquiescence to Waziri culture. Hence the Badal as an instrument of

vengeance remains the chief facet running in the blood of every tribesman and comes into

play against all offenders who are aiming to seize or destroy local freedom or deceit

against given asylum. Revenge is a chivalric code and if not taken immediately is passed

on to next generations but never abandoned. Since Badal is sprinkled by Sharia (Islamic

Belief) therefore practicing of Pakhtunwali is considered as advocating the Sharia law

which does not allow them to diverge from local cultural norms (Haq and Khalid, 2011).

The firm adherence to the local culture and norms, the Pan Islamic stand, buoyancy

to the external forces, the Pakhtunwali with its element of Badal and centuries old free

will warped the local tribes to embrace ‗Shahadat‘ (death) and no second option to

safeguard their cultural and unofficial supremacy over the Waziristan land. According to

this popular belief, they have never been tamed, disarmed or administered through a

steamroller by any invading empire. These tribes have never been recorded as the leading

attackers in the pursuit of territorial gains or against any faith, however they have always

64

successfully protected their territorial boundary against all external aggressions or

inflicting of the disrespect.

3.1.2 Talibanization

The term Talibanization refers to the political and social process following or

imitating the political system, religious laws and life style of Taliban out of Pakistan. In

the international media, it mainly describes the political and social development in

Pakistan, especially, in the northwestern tribal areas. This process used to be called

Taliban Syndrome‖ Burki (2010;3). The element of terrorism started emerging after the

Napoleon's defeat at the battle of Waterloo followed by restoration of royalist regime

under the new conditions basing on the Vienna Agreements in 1814-1815. During the

revolutions of 19th

and 20th

century, new forms of terrorism surfaced during colonial

regimes and civil wars. However in 21st century the terrorism has turned out as most

important cause inducing real threat to overall territorial security of the states, the

inhabitants, the democratic systems and the growth of human civilization. Despite

availability of huge literature on the subject, comprehensive definition of terrorism has yet

not been reached with consensus. There are two major reasons for this disagreement;

firstly the modern media‘s efforts to communicate complex messages in briefest manner

or print space thus labeling various acts of violence as ―Terrorism‖. Secondly the opposing

political interests have also made the task of reaching at agreed definition terrorism quite

difficult, therefore terrorist of one state may be the freedom fighter for other one

(Hoffman, 2009).

The terrorism turned into a nightmare after the emergence of phenomenon of

Talibans after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. First public action of Talibans was

seen in Kandahar when a warlord abducted two girls to serve his men. The incident

followed by chivalric action by few young Pashtuns who stormed the warlord base and

rescued the abducted girls while hanging the warlord with turret of tank. The origin of

Talibans rests in the Pak-Afghan border areas where millions of the Afghan pashtuns

sought refuge during their decade long struggle against the occupation forces of former

Soviet Union. Whole of the generation including boys had grown up in the refugee camps

established mainly in the tribal region especially in Waziristan areas. The refugee camps

organized by the Pakistan were covertly funded by United States and openly by Kingdom

of Saudi Arabian. Owing to their origin from madrassas established along Pak-Afghan

border these young fighters were labeled as Talibans. Following the Soviet defeat and

65

withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Talibans kept on operating from the camps along

Pakistan border as a ferocious civil war fumed in Afghanistan. The Talibans developed

their reputation during the subsequent years which gave them right of entry to Kabul in

1999 thus declaring the country "Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan‖. Meanwhile drawing

upon the public annoyance against United States, Taliban like groups emerged in Pakistan

with their support base in organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami, Hizb-ul-Mujahedeen and

Lashkar-e-Jhangwi etc who pledge for the ideology of global jihad.

In the aftermath of fateful incident of 11 September 2011, the tribal areas of

Pakistan again emerged into global spotlight when United States declared the War against

Terrorism by launching ‗Operation Enduring Freedom‘ against then Afghan regime during

2002. The coalition forces destroyed the Taliban regime within few weeks of the start of

military operation thus forcing the Afghan Taliban and foreign fighters including Arabs,

Chechens, Uzbeks to withdraw in Pak-Afghan border areas (Gull, 2009). The bordering

tribal areas offered an ideal natural, societal, and political settings to the infiltrating

terrorists. All of the tribal agencies especially North and South Waziristan due to peculiar

geography with rugged terrain made the task of guerrilla warfare easier. The receptive

tribal population having history full of tribal wars with traditional honour and hospitality

provided conducive environments for Talibanization of the society.

In March 2004, the soldiers of frontiers corps while during search for Tahir

Yuldashiv in Kaloo Shah near Wanna found themselves under siege by hundreds of Uzbek

terrorists and local Waziri tribesmen who retaliated the search operation. The incident

broke an all-out fighting between the parties during which around 200 frontier corps

soldiers were martyred (Gull, 2009). The incident rang alarm bells in the policy making

corridors of Pakistan to get them out of the state of denial.

After the Kaloo Shah incident, the local militant Nek Muhammad, an Ahmedzai

Wazir emerged as militant commander who confronted the Pakistani security forces

fearlessly. Later in 2004 at Shakai an agreement was reached between the security forces

and militant commander Nek Muhammad thus legitimizing his leadership (Fair, 2011).

The same year Nek Muhammad was killed by United States in a drone strike thus

replacing him with more composed and recognized militant commander named Baitullah

Mehsud. During the year 2007, the terrorism in the Waziristan agency got renewed after

military operation against the militants of Lal Masjid. Terrorists after playing havoc in the

tribal agencies started targeting the urban centers including Lahore, Islamabad and more

66

specifically Peshawar which had always remained on terrorist‘s hit list. Meanwhile the

terrorist groups organized themselves into a unifying force and joined hands under the

banner of "Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)‖. It was Baitullah Mehsud; hailing from

South Waziristan, who unified the terrorist groups from across the entire tribal region to

established TTP under his leadership. The newly established organization was supported

by local terrorist outfits to include Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, the

Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen Al-Alami, the Jundullah and the Sipah-e-Muhammad. These

groups were mostly functioning on sectarian or ethnic grounds. By the end of year 2007,

the Talibans had nearly swallowed up the entire tribal region from Bajaur to South

Waziristan. The new structure of TTP only enhanced the Talibans capacity to engage the

country‘s security forces in more deadly manner. The militant commander Baitullah

Mehsud headed the TTP from 2007 to 2009 till he was killed in a drone attack by United

States.

After the death of Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud was selected as Ameer

along with forty member consultative body ―Shura” in order to coordinate the terrorist

activities. The newly placed arrangement also included about twenty four deputy

commanders to carry out the acts of terrorism in their respective areas. The deputies

included Maulvi Faqir Muhammad who monitored the terrorist acts in Bajaur with Umar

Khalid (Abdul Wali) doing the same in Mohmand. Whereas Maulvi Fazlullah was

assigned the responsibility of Swat chapter till he fled the Swat after successful military

operation in 2009. The military operation Rah-e-Nijaat pushed the Talibans out of their

strong holds from South Waziristan forcing them to flee across Afghan border and into the

North Waziristan where local tribes had been maintaining peace treaty with the

government.

The terrorist organization suffered a major setback in 2014 when Hakim Ullah

Mehsud was killed in a drone attack in North Waziristan. The subsequent change of

leadership was managed by the deputy commander from Swat; Mullah Fazal Ullah who

was hiding in Afghanistan. Under his leadership, the TTP unleashed barbaric wave of

terrorism across the country including massacre of innocent children at Peshawar Army

Public School and lethal attacks on Karachi airport. The events virtually developed the

much needed national consensus to launch full scale military operation in the North

Waziristan; the strong hold of militants including foreign terrorists. The country‘s armed

forces started comprehensive military operation code named Zarb-e-Azb against the

67

terrorists hiding across the North Waziristan agency. The security forces after lot of

sacrifices successfully evicted the terrorists from their hideouts in the agency and

established the writ of the state in 2015. During the military operations, locals were

temporarily displaced to TDP camps established within or at the agency boundary.

However during 2016, the security forces quickly created conducive environments for safe

return of displaced families and their socioeconomic rehabilitation in the post conflict

environments of the agency (Bajwa, 2013).

Imtiaz Gul (2009) in his work notes that the leadership and the ranks and files of

the terrorists come from a humble economic background with little or no educational

background. He argues that the phenomenon of Talibanization in the tribal areas of

Pakistan is quite unique. Hence it can be concluded that the early child rearing

circumstance or the cultural traits bear no direct linkage with the Talibanization (Gul,

2009). He writes that the Talibans or terrorist organizations might have been using the

traditional values to promote their goals but have also been destroying the other facets of

the Pakhtunwali. Therefore it might be inappropriate to term the Talibans as product of

Pakhtun culture rather the correct attribute might be a counter culture force (Gul, 2009).

The author argues that ―I do not believe that extremism and terrorism are part of our DNA.

When I look back down the years, I believe the turning point was in the mid-1970s when

the then civilian government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto decided to recruit dissident Afghans as

assets to deploy against a new government in Kabul that was leaning alarmingly towards

the godless Soviet Union. It was then that Pakistan‘s semi-autonomous tribal areas

bordering Afghanistan became the springboard and the training ground for the Afghan

dissidents‖ (Gul, 2009).

3.1.3 Conflict

The conflict has been defined as a struggle or ontest between people with opposing

needs, ideas, beliefs, values and goals (Diez & Pia, 2007). The word Conflict is derived

from the Latin word which means ‗to clash or engage in a fight‘. In other words the

conflict is a clash between different groups or parties who are aspiring to achieve

incompatible goals. The conflict either may be manifest, recognizable through competing

or incompatible behaviours or latent; the case in which conflict remains inactive for

certain time period as incongruities are unarticulated or built into the system. The conflict

might exist at class level, local government levels, at state or international levels. Conflicts

crop up when certain or more groups do not concede to a specific situation; the groups

68

might be individuals or within the states. In international relations three general forms of

conflict; including interstate, internal, and state formation conflicts have been identified by

Peter Wallen Steen (2010). The first type of conflict; the interstate are the disputes among

nation states or the violation of state alliances. The intensity and the increased frequency

of the internal conflicts with direct contribution towards the expansion and legitimization

of interventionist policies have turned the international community more concerned. The

civil and ethnic wars, anti-colonial resistance, secessionist and independence movements,

territorial conflicts and the fights for government control are included in the internal and

the state formation conflicts. However due to existing security environments prevailing

around the globe, the focus has primarily been shifted towards the global conflicts in

which the non-state actors battle with the regional as well as international organizations

(Steen, 2010).

There is no precise definition of the terminologies like armed or violent conflicts

and ethnic or political violence. In the absence of specific definition, the use of these terms

is generally indiscriminate to one‘s convenience and to support one‘s view point. However

there is commonality of effect in terms of communal disruption or collapse at varying

levels including social, political and economic. Mostly during all out armed conflicts, the

violence observes is at varying intensity levels. A comprehensive defeat of the militant or

armed groups, or the observance of formal peace agreement or the cease indicates the

termination of the armed conflict. The humanitarian disasters those often follow the long

and protracted armed conflicts result in indiscriminate killings, the ills like ethnic

cleansing and mass displacements of the population turning them refugees or migrants.

Different scholars depending on their affiliation with the school of thought they

come from; have offered varying explanations of the conflict. Marx explained the conflict

in terms of social attributes of different social classes, particularly the conflicts between

the ‗Haves and Have Not‘s in the capitalist societies. The scholars who followed the Marx

have offered different explanations of the conflict theory. The theory has applied to give

explanation of dissimilar human actions like educational practices that challenge the

cultural values concerning elderly or criminal behaviour. The chief advocates of the

structural conflict theory see the incompatibility of interests basing on competition for

scarce resources as source of social conflicts.

Structural violence which is also called as indirect violence refers to the violence

that harms masses by not allowing them to meet their basic needs. This impairment of the

69

basic human needs is avoidable and is precisely structural as the same is intrinsically

institutionalized within the society (Galtung and FIscher, 2013). While discussing the

behavioural or direct violence Galtung (2013) affirms interdependence of the both forms

of the violence; that is structural as well as behavioural. Galtung (2013) believes that both

forms of violence result from cultural violence. However the scholars from the realist

school of thought trace back the conflict roots to human nature; considered as selfish and

engaged in pursuit of personal interests commonly identified as power (Morgenthau,

1993). They believe that actors therefore must remain prepared to handle the consequences

of conflicts since these are inevitable. This theory has generally been blamed for elevating

the power and state to ideological levels thence had great impact on conflicts at global

level. The innate conflict theory propagates that in all of the social interactions among

mankind or the animals, the conflict is innate. It further argues that the humans are animal;

albeit superior class of animals, and therefore would fight for possessions they cherish

(Dollard, 1990)

The biological theorists argue that the variance in ‗expected need satisfaction‘ and

the ―actual need satisfaction‖ (Davies, 1978) makes the people to confront those to whom

they consider responsible to frustrate their ambitions. This argument is the central point of

the theory proposed by the Ted Robert Gurr in his thesis of Relative Deprivation (Gurr,

1970). The physiologists believe in biological and hormonal origin of aggressive

behaviors and conflicts among individuals, but they also discuss the circumstances under

which this happens. Scott (1940) writes that physiological source of aggression is the

function of numerous factors including environments and the human nature. He argues

that the human beings are inherently capable to be aggressive but tend to hide violent

behaviour as an instinct. He observes that whenever there is violence, there are the

chances that the same is being exploited by one or the combination of factors including

within or outside one‘s control. Another important type of conflict theory is ―psycho-

cultural conflict theory‖ which theorizes the role of conflicts induced due to cultural

dimensions. Psycho-cultural conflict theory argues that out of different forms of human

identities, the one based on ethnicity and associated culture are the most vital to explain

the violence. They believe that the identity is therefore the motive behind a social conflict

which takes long time to settle despite the popular perception that the ethnicity is main

cause of the identity driven conflicts. The scholars belonging to this school of thought

70

concur that in the presence of ethnic differences there is no reason to believe that the

conflict is unavoidable.

Each point of view adds to the existing knowledge about different dimensions of

the conflict. Although theses dimensions are analytically distinct as static points of

departure, there is sufficient overlap among conflict orientations to blur their fine points of

distinction (Kelen, 2012). The scholars dealing with the conflict can thus combine one or

more than one perception while either analyzing the social conflicts or assisting the

political leaders to develop right policies to deal with them.

World Bank along with the different international development agencies engaged

in post conflict activities in various parts around the globe generally categorizes the

conflict as one which has either very recently witnessed violence at large scale or where

the state is facing an armed resistance from significant number of local population. If

certain privileges of the commanding and subsidiary states, rulers and the insurgents are

not addressed then the conflict can occur. John W. Burton (1997) says that the conflict can

be described as relationship where opposing groups perceive the other‘s goal or values,

and interests or behaviors as adversative to own. The conflict embraces firstly the linkage

between groups to a clash, their sensitivity and misperceptions, their values both shared as

well as separate and their objectives and inspiration, and secondly the social, economic as

well as political and institutional setting in which disputes take place (Burton, 1997).

The succession of conflict is primarily divided into three phases namely the pre-

conflict phase, the present phase, and the post-conflict phases (Galtung, 1969). The first

phase; the pre-conflict phase is related to the classification of disputes in relationship to

hostilities. During this phase of conflict, the intensity and abomination is experienced

among the masses. The second phase of the conflict; present phase ascertains the radical

behaviors with emergence of derived conflict under primary groups and even within the

resultant groups present. This amply explains the reason why conflicts re-generate once

they have been resolved in the absence of comprehensive strategy to deal with the matter

at larger part. Before understanding the third phase of conflict; the post conflict phase it is

imperative to know that direct violence has a connection with the conflictual behavior and

hence lessening the behavior will put a full stop to the conflict. The cause of structural

violence is the reason of state‘s shape or structure. The post conflict phase signifies the

reduced conflictual behaviours and attitudes resulting into minimal incompatibilities and

violent behaviours. Therefore if the conditions like injustice and structural contradictions

71

are changed or eliminated, then the structural violence can be arrested. Since the

aggressive attitude spreads the cultural violence, therefore change of attitude can uproot

the cultural violence. In other words the process of de-radicalization and social integration

can contribute in arresting the conflict triggers. The third phase of Galtung conflict theory

is considered to be the most appropriate phase where corrective measures and policies can

be initiated to maximize the social, economic, political and institutional reformation

effects (Galtung, 1969).

3.1.4 Rehabilitation

The hard work to define the abstract fundamentals of post conflict rehabilitation

along with their practical connotations is primarily derivative of the analysis of

transforming the international system, modifications of regulative sub-systems, as well as

the analysis of conflict management or conflict resolution apparatus. The concept of post

conflict rehabilitation, or the peace building or the nation building has yet not formally

entered into the international law. The chief reason for the same might be that the post

conflict rehabilitation activity or term has yet not been accurately defined and still has

uncertain content. Different scholars from different academic disciplines have described

the post conflict rehabilitation activities from their own perspective. The term

rehabilitation is more expressive and whole encompassing in mapping the conflict

dynamics and reflecting the landscape peculiarities of a conflict (Pantev, 2004). It not only

senses but also offers all-encompassing way to determine the needs and the problems of

management, the regulations and solution (Pantev, 2004). These form the fundamentals to

outline a comprehensive picture of post conflict rehabilitation beliefs, logic and the details

of activities already in practice and constantly studied.

The term rehabilitation is specifically defined and perceived by the present day

policy makers as the all-inclusive studying the resettlement and reintegration of the

population affected by the conflicts rather than considering only in terms of its

conventional meaning (Pantev, 2004). The post conflict rehabilitation process is being

considered as the most important peace building and the development subject at national,

regional and the global levels. Lately the important aspects like social transformation,

making the socioeconomic growth more conducive or establishing the institutions to settle

and manage the conflicts are being discussed under rehabilitation. This wider application

of the term is making the rehabilitation a mainstay for huge array of academic research

and development practitioners alike.

72

Since middle of 1990s, focused efforts by the Cluster of Competence

Rehabilitation on the project of war torn societies has significantly added theoretic as well

as practical knowledge to the subject of rehabilitation. Within the contextual framework

provided by this project, numerous research imitative have been undertaken to determine

the character of modern conflicts and their prerequisites including the follow up of

humanitarian interventions. Also the inquiries have been made to ascertain as to why

special attention is required on the transition issues and integrating the relief programs

with the conflict management and the contributions towards long term development

(Pugh, 1998). The project also attracted the interests of the researchers in investigating

diverse dimensions of rehabilitation. Firstly, the requirement of conditionality to support

the process of recovery from wars including both civil and others is considered in the

context of missing strategic uniformity in rehabilitation planning; a sign of lacked vision

in handling the collapsing states or community regenerations. Secondly, the relief

development concept as an evolution from overt war to a state of no hostility bears special

connotation for humanitarian aspects of rehabilitation. Thirdly, in terms of societal

transformation the rehabilitation concept offers special meanings for the participation and

accountability framework as well as social engineering limitations.

The study carried out about Kosovo signifies that how complex is the post-conflict

rehabilitation process especially in inspiring the population to start handling their own

problems. The study also marks the required degree of realization about complexity of

factors that emerged during the time and lead to the demand of putting into practice certain

standards prior to fully mainstreaming the conflict area. Richard Stanley (2005) observes

that the post conflict rehabilitation is an intimidating challenge since it too often fosters

the seeds of next conflict. It is due to this reason that during post conflict scenarios;

restoration of civil order and the administration is crucial to achieve total success in the

conflict. The most significant aspect is to understand that a meaningful success is possible

only after maintaining a long-term pledge to the rehabilitation activities (Richard, 2005).

A paradigm shift in the concept of rehabilitation occurred with the adoption of

‗Brahimi Report‘ (2004) that comprehensively defined the United Nations peace

operations including conflict prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and the peace

building operations. The stated principles of United Nations peace building operations are

closely linked to the concept of rehabilitation as these include the social reintegration of

the former combatants, strengthening rule of law, improving the conditions of human

73

rights, rendering much needed technical support for development activity and also

promoting the reconciliation techniques and the conflict resolution (Brahimi, 2004). The

concept of post conflict rehabilitation has enormous potential to prevent the conflicts but it

requires timely application to yield tangible results. Various scholars and other sources

have contributed considerably in order to clearly distinguish between the pre conflict, the

conflict phase and the post conflict phase of the stabilization operations (William, 2003) to

which the phenomenon of post conflict rehabilitation is logically linked. The studies of

Balkans and elsewhere carried out in the project of Rehabilitation of war-torn societies

offers firm ground to verify and test the lessons learnt during the post conflict experiences

(Lehner and Fred, 2001).

A realistic level of peace and security is the absolute sine qua non for

commencement of cultural, economic and political rehabilitation (Gennip, 2005).

REDRESS Trust also offers a holistic definition of rehabilitation which reads,

―Rehabilitation encompasses all sets of processes and services and states should have in

place to allow a victim of serious human rights violations to reconstruct his/her life plan or

to reduce, as far as possible the harm that has been suffered…..States should be obliged to

establish a rehabilitation system that incorporates at least physical and psychological

services, and social, legal and financial services, which should be available to any person

who might need them‘ (Trust, 2009).

The concept of relief, rehabilitation and development notion got connected in the

1980s to bring together different mindsets of the long term development organizations,

relief and peace building NGOs (Anderson, 2001). Few scholars are of the view that

―relief, rehabilitation and development can all take place simultaneously within a state;

emergency relief or post conflict rehabilitation in some regions and development in others.

These three concepts are not generally recognized as separate but overlapping and

complementary‖ (Rament, 2012). The rationale behind the conceptual and strategic

linking of relief, rehabilitation and development is the belief that relief and rehabilitation

programs can and should include development objectives (Rament, 2012). While taking a

critical perspective of the rehabilitation concept considering and conceptualizing the

rehabilitation as a program similar to one understood for the people hit by the natural

disasters, they argue that in post conflict scenario the condition of the population requiring

rehabilitation is totally different since protracted conflicts erode the social, political and

the economic institutions (Rament, 2012). They further argue that the conflicts not only

74

involve the questions about what is required to be reconstructed but also the reconstruction

mechanism to restore the structures and unsustainable institutions those initially

contributed towards the conflict. Reginald Herbold Green (1999) suggests that the

rehabilitation must be an interactive process encompassing economic recovery especially

rebuilding livelihood, social integration by reducing perceived inequity and stress and

political reconciliation as well as restoration of legitimacy and not only rehabilitating the

basic amenities, personal security oriented police and courts system. They further note that

conflict ridden societies of Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Uganda, Eretria and

Somalia are undergoing the transitional rehabilitation. The conditions of these countries

are still fragile because of little or no understanding of how to rebuild the conflict ridden

societies. The reason for this void is due to the fact that the term rehabilitation has still

being defined quite narrowly and envisaged only in terms of infrastructural improvement

(Green and Ahmad, 1999).

Hopmann (1999) in his work writes that the term post conflict rehabilitation has

also been used in the doctrinal context while discussing the state of people and the areas

which had undergone the sufferings from the conflict. He chooses the rehabilitation as the

explanatory one for activities that involve in healing the problems like economic and

social distress. He believes that the assistance is made available by rehabilitation activities

to relieve the circumstances responsible for conflict and make the reconciliation process

difficult (Hopmann, 1999). The role of international and national agencies assumes critical

importance in the post conflict settings when the afflicted community lacks capability to

deal with the situation. In such circumstances the fragile peace can be even further

deteriorated and in certain cases may revert back to the violence or to the state of conflict

(Hopmann, 1999). The rehabilitation is vital in the sense that it entails generative changes.

The phenomenon of rehabilitation is also associated with the restoration of entitlements of

conflict ridden population and other households (Carbonnier, 2015). However others find

rehabilitation, regeneration, recovery and reconstruction as terminologies that can be used

interchangeably (Hoffmann, 2009).

The sponsored terrorism along with the inequalities, economic relative deprivation,

ethnicity and religious extremism are the key contributors to the recent conflicts. In post-

conflict societies, the government agencies are required to deal with the restoration,

development, reintegration and security. The foreign assistance essential to achieve these

objectives may not be forthcoming or may not be welcomed in the tribal societies (Corradi

75

and Patricia, 1992). The foreign interventions in rebuilding and rehabilitation may refuel

the conflict as has been witnessed in Afghanistan during the recent years. Also when the

ethnicity, religion, and nationalism are involved in the conflicts then local and historical

factors need special attention while planning the rehabilitation and reconstruction

strategies. In other words the rehabilitation measures practiced in post conflict

environments in the Balkans may not be applicable to the complex tribal societies like

North Waziristan. However the research will consider the various dimensions for effective

practical application of the rich toolbox of the post conflict rehabilitation in real situations.

3.2 Theoretical Framework

An integrated study conducted in post conflict environment of North Waziristan

bears certain major conceptual as well as methodological problems. The issues confronted

are primarily two fold; firstly, the scarcity of research conducted and secondly, relative

absence of solid theoretical foundation due to a complex field. Twentieth century conflicts

driven by the element of terrorism are highly complex and multifaceted in nature

encompassing socioeconomic exploitations, cultural aspects and politico-administrative

chaos. Another important challenge is difficulty in gathering of reliable data about conflict

ridden areas for comprehensive empirical analysis. Nature of destruction caused by the

conflicts; despite being similar in kind to the natural calamities, demands different

rehabilitation strategy.

The multidimensionality and complex character of the study has made exigent to

examine different aspects of the research by applying relevant theories. In this regard the

interplay of social engineering theory and the systems thinking approach will form basis of

the research argument. Social engineering theory explains the state intervention to induce

fabricated and deliberate social change to pursue the state objectives through Waziristan

society. The systems thinking approach while employing the social engineering theory

provides an in-depth insight of the problem through systematic analysis for presenting a

whole encompassing strategy to address the complex socioeconomic and political issues.

Based on the argument that victims of the negative social engineering need rehabilitation

through positive social change; the interplay of two theoretical approaches has been

applied to understand the research argument in coming sections of the dissertation.

76

3.2.1 Social Engineering

What are the methods by which states, groups and individual have struggled to

shape societies through the ages? For reasons which range from altruism to selfish greed,

states and people attempt to change, manipulate and direct the flux of social action in

order to maintain the status quo or reach a new order in which they can participate more

fully in the social riches. In this backdrop the study of history and methods by which

segments of society have battled for mastery is seminal to the sociological endeavour. The

study of sociotechnics that have been employed to influence the social change also give a

clearer view of methods and stratagems used to implement these changes. During 1966,

one of the Polish sociologists Adm Podgorecki set out to develop sociotechnics as an

applied social science that was non-ideological but would have the capability of

unmasking the communist regime‘s social engineering stratagems. Sociotechnics was

distinct than earlier social engineering practices although it supported the rational choice

in political and social paradigm for efficient social action (Alexander and Schmidt, 1996).

An English historian and journalist Paul Johnson (1983) had written that the

twentieth century was essentially the period of social engineering. He says that the term

social engineering means positioning and testing the social and environmental forces to

cause the likelihood of inducing effective social action. Word engineering implies the

designing and raising structures and procedures where human beings act as raw material.

This social engineering technique applied during twentieth century has evoked and

brought large scale social changes. These changes occurred in accordance with the

predetermined ideas and outcome of social projects, visions, and social plans designed at

large scale. These twentieth century social engineering plans often exacted dreadful costs.

The human beings; the raw material used by the social engineers is resistant and therefore

difficult to adjust to designers plans. At times the social engineering scientists have often

applied violent means to sever the will of subjects required to be changed (Podgórecki,

Alexander, and Shields, 1996). The social engineering is also defined as the acts of

manipulating an individual to force an action which might not be in the best interest of the

subject. This might include gathering of information, gaining access, or covertly forcing

the subject to take predetermined action (Hadnagy, 2011).

The poetry of Popper referred to dissimilarity between utopian or all-embracing

form of social engineering and the piecemeal social engineering. The two forms of social

engineering differ in their immensity of vision, plans and the projects. What Paul Johnson

77

(1983) referred as simply the social engineering, the Popper terms it as utopian social

engineering (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996). In the piecemeal form of social

engineering the engineer endeavours to achieve his goal through small steps while

correcting his moves incessantly. This type of social engineering often does not go well

with the political tempers of large number of dedicated activists because their social

engineering programs are generally utopian in nature. Proponents of utopian forms of

social engineering in advance know that total social transformation of the society is

essential. They claim to have the knowledge of knowing in advance that what must be

done and what all is required to be removed. Contrary the advocates of piecemeal social

engineering believe in deciding in advance only the range of reforms.

The rise of the nation‘s state is considered as the main reason for advent of the

concept of social engineering. The states in the name of national interests, social order and

strategy started the process of major societal interventions through specialized state

agencies and institutions. These state interventions covered a vast spectrum of activities

related to different social aspects including examining the social tendencies to define the

behavioural standards. It is however important to mention that the concept of social

engineering is not restricted to state interventions only but also takes place at micro levels.

The social engineering is a bottom-up and not necessarily top down phenomenon

(Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996). Eighteenth century efforts undertaken by the

French government to change firmly followed religious values present an ideal case of

social engineering. However the Marxism during the period of nineteenth century

promoted the phenomenon of revolutionary reformation across Europe offered supreme

motivation for social engineering. In-fact most of the famous social engineers of the

twentieth century were dictators like Hitler and Stalin. Most of the twentieth century social

engineering initiatives failed because raw material; the human beings resisted and could

not adjust to the process (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996).

Different research projects undertaken to study war have reflected that the

sociocultural values are entrenched by the institutional arrangements and the prevailing

circumstances and are not autonomous factors (Lopez and Snyder, 2011). Though

sociocultural values have an important role in societies but their vulnerabilities to the

exploitation through state institutions and individuals are quite significant to remain

unnoticed. The blossoming of social engineering arose in intimate connection with the

state‘s expansion into economic development, employment, welfare and social policy. The

78

state agencies use social engineering to pursue national interests and foreign policy

strategy, and to improve social order and morality (Bristow, 1996). Social engineering

helped imperial powers to control their colonies and unfortunately the same has been

applied by different states to further their strategic objectives (Quah and Sales, 2000).

When left unchecked the states through the phenomenon of social engineering; while

hiding the real motives fabricate the realities. Mostly the state intelligence apparatus is

used to divert the attention from what is essentially required in the pursuit of perceived

geostrategic interests. The process of such a social change through state intervention

initiated on behest of external factors cannot be controlled and may trigger a process of

sociocultural degeneration. During recent past, the same phenomenon has been observed

in the area under study; which subsequently has resulted into socioeconomic devastation

and political chaos in North Waziristan.

3.2.2 Application of Sociotechnics

Podgorecki‘s (1996) warning about utopian sociotechnics is of great importance.

He warned that utopian sociotechnics were rooted in the totalitarian experience of

twentieth century Europe. History has shown the dangers of utopian designs aiming at

transforming social structures to fit a scientific blueprint. Even when the goals seem

legitimate and progressive, an imposed utopia represents a threat to the vital interests and

integrity of the local society. To this regard Podgorecki referred to Massell study (1974),

which concerned the revolutionary strategy to emancipate women in the Muslim

communities of the Soviet Central Asia during 1912 – 1929. The hidden goal was to

penetrate tightly knit Muslim society and undermine it from within. The intervention

resulted in a worsening situation for local women. The lessons derived from the

totalitarian past have to be kept in mind as a reminder of negative designs and the need for

a realistic sociological understanding of the context in which the intervention is taking

place (Denis and Fishman, 2009).

Four fundamental possibilities may appear while discussing the application of

social engineering projects in the intended subject research area (Podgórecki, Alexander,

and Shields, 1996).

During the application of Piecemeal Independent Factor (PIF) social engineers first

recognize the factors with little or partial influence to identify the effect of factors

and envisage potential negative by-products. The scope of this technique is limited

79

with confined results hence the things generally remain controlled. The examples

of this strategy include the laws relating to privatization and the public private joint

ventures. As the laws are critically analyzed for their possible negative impact

therefore the same can be readily reversed if fail to meet the changed requirements

even before their application.

The second strategy called Global Independent Factor (GIF) is used to study a

particular factor having effects across the society. The factor under study is not

analyzed to calculate isolated positive or the negative effects but to test its

collective impact on the society. The example of this strategy is the total

imposition of a monolithic ideology.

Third strategy called Global Dependent Target (GDT) is applied across the society

without selecting any target area thus exposing the entire society to the process of

unmeasured social change. During the recent years this technique has become the

most favourite tool of the terrorist outfits like ISIS and Al-Qaeda to further their

global agenda for social transformation.

Piecemeal Dependent Target (PDT) is the fourth type of social engineering

strategy which targets a particular area for wanted social change while considering

its likely pliability. The process of social change that triggered in the agency under

study with the country‘s forced involvement in the Afghan wars is one of the

possible applications of this strategy.

The targeting social strategies generally involve the identification of subject

society, the character traits of the population, the socioeconomic development levels, and

above all the willingness to adapt sociocultural changes. During the social engineering

process in the agency under study, Piecemeal Dependent Target (PDT) strategy was

applied to foster desired social change among resident of North Waziristan in order to

achieve the perceived geostrategic goals. The levels of different social engineering

strategies applied in the North Waziristan included following.

With the help of United States the government established numerous training

facilities for Afghan Mujahedeen along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border including

the agency capital Miranshah to train Afghan Mujahedeen.

Empowering of the Mullah against the centuries old tribal institution of elders or

Maliks with the objective to exploit the religious sentiments of poorly educated

local youth to muster necessary support for Afghan Jihad.

80

Allowing the Afghan refugees and foreign; fighter mustered by allied countries, to

settle in the tribal areas especially in the Waziristan agencies thus polluting the

traditional cultural code of Pakhtunwali.

Establishment of Madrassa network in the tribal region; with main Madrassa

Haqania at Miranshah, to feed the Afghan Jihad against former Soviet Union that

ultimately breaded the culture of militancy among peace loving Wazir tribes.

Establishing schools for education of the refugee children which affected the

children from local communities because they were also admitted in those schools.

Funneling the foreign money especially from United States and the Kingdom of

Saudi Arabia to religious seminaries and Madrassas established to support the

Afghan war. This unchecked flow of money subsequently created extortionists

among the local society.

3.2.3 System’s Thinking Approach

In the post Zarb-e-Azb environments different government agencies are

undertaking multiple rehabilitation activities across the North Waziristan. However a large

number of TDPs has yet not returned which is enough to proclaim the rehabilitation

process as a non-systematic in nature. In situation like one at the hand, the establishment

of a dynamic rehabilitation strategy by adopting systems thinking approach can be a step

forward. Stephen G. Haines (2000) says that the system thinking approach can work in

variety of complex situations. Since it looks at how the matter under study interacts with

other components of the system (Haines, 2000). System thinking has been established as a

robust way of analyzing and solving issues of difficult nature including complex problems

involving many actors, recurrent problems or the issues those have been made intricate by

previous attempts to solve them. All of such problems are by and large associated with the

post conflict rehabilitation. In such type of situations, integrated and proactive systems

thinking approach assumes greater significance.

Systems thinking approach compliments the human‘s natural tendency to break

down the things in manageable parts which is also known as reductionist thinking

(Midgley, 2000). Basically the systems thinking approach is expansionistic in nature that

initially analyzes the problem‘s perspective and then subsequently breaks it into various

components. The sequence helps in better understanding of the interdependency as well as

the element of change in order to handle the factors that characterize the consequences of

81

actions (Senge, 2010). One of the most applicable definitions of the system is an entity

which maintains its existence through mutual interaction of its various components

(Bertalanffy, 1975). This definition of systems thinking infers something beyond the cause

and effect. However at the heart of systems thinking lays the central principle of mutual

connectedness of the issues and the problems.

The systems thinking approach offers certain very important conclusions that merit

serious consideration before initiating rehabilitation planning in the zone of conflict. One

of the important arguments is that society is fairly a complex system and real life world

system is composed of subsystems which are mutually overlapping and complex in nature.

Moreover it is generally not possible to deal with the individual subsystems in isolation. A

segment or combination of varying parts is a system provided any of the components can

affect the functioning of the whole, where it is important to mention that there is no end to

the system (Checkland, 1999). Systems thinking can allow the researcher to study the

underlying root causes that are responsible to steer certain situation instead to draw

premature conclusions. In this approach first the phenomenon is considered and then the

explored for any connection to the underlying patterns. This all connects to the concept of

holism which is the idea that the properties of a system cannot be explained by the sum of

its components alone. Holism asserts that the whole can have properties not explainable

only by analyzing the constituent parts. As Aristotle has said in the Metaphysics that, ―the

whole is more than the sum of its parts‖. The concept of holism comes into play where the

system as a whole works differently than its parts since the parts alone cannot perform

what a system as a whole can do (Filho, Mifsud, Shiel, and Pretorius, 2017).

All schools of the system thinkers believe that the complex systems entail

interrelated parts and their association is understandable in terms of different levels with

the elements of one having dependency on either the inferior or the superior level. The

properties of the system are emergent and thus cannot be predicted from the properties of

individual elements. They affirm that the systems are characterized by feedback,

recursion, boundaries, nested sub-systems and responsiveness to the environment in which

the system is located (Midgley, 2000). The systems thinking approach is a discipline for

seeing the wholes, recognizing patterns and interrelationships rather that static snapshots.

It also involves learning how to structure these interrelationships in more effective and

efficient ways. The systems theory is a ―research methodology and rigorous macro-

scientific and trans-disciplinary framework with its roots in universal laws of living

82

systems and human nature on the earth‖ (Chekland, 1999 and Haines, 2000). Systems

thinking approach is a body of knowledge and tools that serves to clear the full patterns of

the problems, issues and situations that confront in general (Senge, 2000).

The complexity of terrorism driven armed conflicts and post conflict

reconstruction; interwoven with uncertainty, rising risk, and interconnectedness of issues,

have made the simple reductionist approaches and habitual modus operandi irrelevant to

handle the rehabilitation complexities. When strategy for rehabilitation planning in post

conflict zones is discussed, usually the thought of governments, national, local and

international organizations, and agencies come into play. Their approach to strategy,

planning and management of rehabilitation may vary from one organization to the other

and from one case to the other. No afflicted society is same after the conflict and similarly

nor are the approaches to post conflict rehabilitation (Eden and Ackermann, 1998). Within

an overall dynamic and strategic framework the issues could be dealt with in a better

fashion. The process of systems thinking strategy involves creating and molding the future

while making sense of the past, constructing rather than predicting and responding to some

predetermined future reality. In this approach the key elements are the growth of abilities

for conventional thinking and long term plans (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel, 1998).

Different countries and societies have successfully emerged from armed conflicts

under conflicting and radically unique conditions. Sri Lanka, Nepal and Afghanistan are

distinctive cases with specific context and inherited sociopolitical structures and therefore

the priority, appropriateness, and implementation strategies would be different than the

area under research. Plans for post conflict rehabilitation should be developed like of a

highly complex system comprising social, political, economic, institutional, human and

administrative systems and subsystems (Makara, Tukahebwa, and Byarugaba, 1996). The

creation of sustainable rehabilitation framework through application of systems thinking

approach involves the actors to reach at the starting point and integral frame for

considering what needs to be done and which fundamental issues need to be addressed. In

the context of systems approach four distinct pillars of rehabilitation to include

humanitarian dimension, socioeconomic wellbeing and governance through participation,

have been identified (Hamrre and Sllivan, 2002). These pillars are the integral part of post

conflict rehabilitation framework to deal with the multitude rebuilding tasks encountered

in post conflict societies.

83

3.2.4 Interplay of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach

Owing to the application of social engineering strategies at various levels during

early eighties, the sociocultural outlook of the Waziristan tribes has hugely been

transformed. The present day image of local tribes has mostly been formed by the

recorded and unrecorded historical literature reinforced by the bigoted colonial policies

under the British India. These colonial policies were aimed at justifying the military

occupation and their cold blooded treatment of local population. The concept has been

explained by Galtung (1969) who believes that when the subject is not only dehumanized

and deprived of manhood, then ―the stage is set for any type of direct violence, which is

then blamed on the victim‖. Banerjee while describing the colonial era dealings with the

population of Pak-Afghan tribal areas observed that ―not only were they an undervalued

mass peasantry who were deemed incapable of constructive political action by their own

(or at least the Indian) bourgeoisie; they were also as Pathans, the victims of particularly

extreme oriental representations which portrayed them as far more hotheaded and

unpredictable than even the average Indian peasant‖ (Banerjee, 2010). The British policies

in the area particularly Waziristan had been characterized through blockades, the subsidies

to certain tribes, engineering of the system by manipulating the tribal culture and even

armed expeditions to implement the desired changes. These social exploitations of the

local population continued until the colonial power; the British decided to grant

independence to both Pakistan and India during August 1947.

The successive governments of Pakistan largely pursued the policies of local

exploitations through social engineering strategies. These manipulations got furthered

geared-up after Red Armies of former Soviet Union marched into Afghanistan. The

Afghan occupation prompted Pakistan to readily align her state policies to the Western

agenda. Practical manifestations of state sponsored social interventions in the tribal areas

especially the Waziristan eventually started haunting the local populations during late

1990s. The phenomenon of Talibanization; direct by-product of the persistent state neglect

and social engineering strategies in Waziristan, is generally attributed to the cultural traits

of the Waziristan population. Harbouring Al-Qaeda fugitives to the destruction of

educational institutions especially girls‘ schools and inhuman acts of cutting throats appear

accustomed with sociocultural values of the locals. Even the tainted fundamental

principles of Talibans‘ Islam are being associated with the centuries old Pakhtun traditions

of Pakhtunwali (Taj, 2011).

84

The recent process of social engineering including religious indoctrination and

inducement of militant culture mainly commenced after Pakistan decided to join her

Western allies to fight the communist Soviet regime due to her intervention in the

Afghanistan. The Afghan communist revolution in 1978 followed by the Soviet presence

in country‘s neighborhood, created a geostrategic nightmare for Pakistan and therefore she

readily accepted to convert the country‘s tribal areas into marshaling areas for Afghan

Jihad. However the formal advent of social engineering process can be ascribed to the

flood of Afghan refugees who were settled in the refugee camps established across FATA

including the surrounding areas of Peshawar. The Afghan refugees were then subsequently

funded, trained and equipped with the modern weaponry provided by the United States

and her Western Allies to fight the infidels in Afghanistan. To provide much needed

replenishments during the Afghan war, literature preaching Jihad was circulated to

galvanize the local tribes to join the fight morally and logistically. Moreover the militant

elements from across the globe were motivated to settle in the tribal region especially

Waziristan to participate in Afghan Jihad. Marwat (2005) writes that the whole process of

social engineering was supplemented by religious seminaries and around one thousand

Madrassas established in the tribal areas including Waziristan without any regulatory

mechanism for oversight. These Madrassas while enrolling the local youth also hosted a

huge number of foreign Muslim students who later turned into a potent hard core militant

force to be reckoned with. For the purpose of indoctrination of refugee and local children a

network of schools was established under the watch of agencies like UNHCR, different

NGOs and political parties. Textbooks taught in these schools were published in theUnited

States with contents aimed at ideological propaganda (Gul, 2009). For instance the book of

mathematics included mathematical problems like ―If out of 10 infidels 5 were killed by 1

Muslim, 5 would be left‖ and ―15 bullets – 10 bullets = 5 bullets‖ etc. (Marwat, 2005).

Since the Waziristan tribes were intended to play a critical role during the Afghan

Jihad therefore the local population was given maximum exposure to social indoctrination.

The social engineering was not limited to the tribal areas only rather the state also

introduced certain constitutional reforms including the renaming of parliament as Majlis-

e-Shoora. The Madrassa certificates were granted equivalence to university degree

bringing parties with religious slogans into the mainstream politics at national level

(Marwat, 2005). These constitutional changes combined the politics and religion motives

thereby giving undue leverage to self-proclaimed Islamic parties. Also different scholars

85

unknowingly contributed to achieve the intended covert objectives of social engineering

introduced to further geopolitical interests. While commenting on the post Afghan

invasion scenario General Hameed Gul (Retd) said that ―Jihad is oven in the Pakhtuns‘

culture‖. He was of the opinion that Pakhtuns are compelled by their culture to fight the

imperial power (the United States) and its supporters so long as it maintains presence in

this region (Shakoor, 2012). Although these myths have no real linkage with the Pakhtun

culture but this bears no meaning when people have successfully been made to believe it

as reality. The ground work was done through perception building process and the stage

was set for desired social change that eventually cultivated the seeds of militancy without

any controlling mechanism in place. Thus the emergence of Taliban led terrorism that

turned into a conflict should not be a surprise if one analyzes the situation in retrospect.

Bergen and Tiedemann (2013) observed that the causes of terrorism in the region

included geostrategic, ideological, economic and political. They assert that the due to

prevailing unrest, the natural riches of the area like gas, oil, manganese, soap stone,

chromate, fluorite, coal, gypsum, iron ore, lead, quartz, marble and lime stone could not be

explored for the socioeconomic wellbeing of the tribesmen. They argue that the present

administrative system needs replacement as the same would help to initiate the processes

of development in the agency (Bergen and Tiedemann, 2013). They believe that solution

to the problem of development lies in systematic approach to complex issues of post

conflict reconstruction including empowering the tribal elders and restoring the balance to

a socio-cultural system, engineered in turmoil since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan

in 1979 (Bergen and Tiedemann, 2013).

Post Crisis Need Assessment of KP and FATA (2011) reported that violence and

the militancy are due to the reasons of poverty, unemployment, bad governance, low

human development, poor infrastructure, acute shortage of basic services, and economic

backwardness of the residents of the agency. These factors have been adding fuels to

militancy and insurgency. The Government has been facing the problem of in creating the

job opportunities in these circumstances to increases lawful livelihood environment. In the

post conflict rehabilitation framework special attention need to be given to the youth,

women and job creation opportunities to for achieve lasting peace. Chairman Youth

Association of Pakistan, Mr. Kamboh said that youth has always desired socioeconomic

change for prosperity, development and peace that will block radicalization of the society.

He also observes that youth is the backbone of any nation and healthy and educated youths

86

plays an important role in the development of a nation. He remarked that during past

majority of the local youth underwent social engineering organized by successive

governments to pursue their foreign policies at the cost of isolating them for development

(K. Kamboh, personal communication, May 16, 2017).

To sum-up the Pakistani involvement in Afghan Jihad followed by the state policy

of inducing sociocultural changes among Waziristan tribes breaded the phenomenon of

militancy ―a negative social change‖. The same after the Afghan invasion by the United

States in 2002 turned the North Waziristan into an epicenter of terrorism. These militant

groups later supported by foreign agencies and their local sympathizers unleashed a worst

kind of terrorism driven conflict across the Pakistan in general and Waziristan in

particular. Consequently the local population due to evolved conflict started suffering for

the problems which were hardly of their own making. The state of conflict not only

destroyed the political and tribal institutions of the agency but also ruined the existing

socioeconomic infrastructure in the area. Before the final extinction of the conflict through

successful completion of operation Zarb-e-Azb, the terrorists while destroying the

economic and politic-administrative structure of the agency had already stained the most

cherished local sociocultural attributes. For successful restoration of the socioeconomic

and politico-administrative structures in the post conflict environments, there is need to

analyze the post conflict rehabilitation needs in long term perspective and the historical

context of the issues confronted. The systems thinking approach provides a framework to

systematically handle numerous complex factors that contributed to the conflict. It also

provides essential mechanism to plan and execute a comprehensive rehabilitation strategy

including development and de-radicalization of the infected local youth from North

Waziristan. The systems thinking focuses on long term initiatives for restoration of

socioeconomic, cultural and political institutions of the agency to address deep rooted

causes of conflict and foster necessary social conditions to establish sustainable peace

(Carbonnier, 2015). The review of contemporary post conflict societies forms a basis for

an integrated approach to a successful rehabilitation strategy. The strategy merits to be

looked at from a holistic and systemic viewpoint where each rehabilitation dimension fits

with other social aspects in the post conflict environments of the agency.

The failing structure of the North Waziristan can be attributed to the state‘s lack of

response to the problem of militancy. It has almost been fifteen years since the War on

Terrorism was initiated but due to lack of holism in the strategy, the state has remained

87

unable to formulate a rehabilitation program that could help to reintegrate the area and the

tribes into the mainstream Pakistan. The process of sociocultural restoration and economic

recovery are the most important objectives of any rehabilitation strategy. In order to

achieve these goals the involvement of locals through participatory rehabilitation planning

followed by shared execution can only work for sustainable peace and security (Lederach.,

2000). The state therefore needs to initiate a systemized post conflict rehabilitation

strategy while carefully considering the aspirations of local inhabitants. The systems

thinking approach duly supplemented by positive social engineering will provide a whole

encompassing framework to address the local population demands of rigorous reformation

in social, economic and political fields. The research models emerged from the literature

review and above discussion duly modified by the author; based on social engineering

theory and systems‘ thinking approach with two important components to include causes

of conflict and rehabilitation strategy, have been shown in figures given below.

Figure 8:

Research Model Causes of Conflict

Figure 9:

Research Model Rehabilitation Strategy

Civic Services Conflict

Terrorism

Poor

Governance

Social Restoration

Economic Recovery

Governance

Reforms

Post Conflict

Rehabilitation

88

3.3 Hypothesized Relationships

Six Hypotheses have been developed from the study of relevant literature and the

researchers‘ understanding of the problem. Hypothesized relationships given below have

been established to achieve the research objectives and to answer the research questions

while exploring the causes of conflict as well as desired rehabilitation strategy.

3.3.1 Causes of Conflict

H1; There is a significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism.

H2; There is a significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic

services.

H3; There is a significant relationship between conflict and poor

governance.

3.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

H4; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation

and social restoration.


and economic recovery.


and governance reforms.

3.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter while giving brief details of various concepts covers the theoretical

framework used to investigate different research questions. The first section of this chapter

gives a brief account of different concepts including Tribal Culture, Talibanization,

Conflict and Rehabilitation. The second section of the chapter explains social engineering

theory with its application levels and how these have been applied over the years in the

agency under study. After having acquired the knowledge about the causes of conflict, this

section elaborately advocates the application of system‘s thinking approach in planning an

effective rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict environments of the North Waziristan.

The chapter after discussing the interplay of both social engineering theory and system‘s

89

thinking approach gives the hypothesized relationships developed from the literature

review and the researchers‘ understanding of the problem.

90

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

91

METHODOLOGY

The methodology is a fundamental structural design mostly based on research tools

and techniques to carry out empirical investigations. This study in principal has adopted

the exploratory survey method which assists investigating and identifying the patterns to

name a social phenomenon (Nathanson, Higgins, Giglio, and Munshi, 2003).

4.1 Research Design

The study has applied pragmatic mode which is mix of qualitative and quantitative

methods of research to collect primary data. The pragmatic approach provides multiple

dimensions and triangulation in research design, theoretical framework and research

strategies. The adoption of pragmatic approach is at aimed to seek a detailed

understanding of responses through quantitative method using qualitative questionnaire for

random probing of the respondents. According to Gilbert (2010) the random probes

―provide a check on the validity of the questions‖. He also believes that random probes

―provide illustrative material about what underlies respondents view‖ (Gilbert, 2010).

Both quantitative and qualitative research approaches are well known in among

academic scholars. Krishna and Shrader (1999) argue that in social sciences the qualitative

research approach as compared to quantitative approach has been more focused due to its

wide range of strengths. They further comment that qualitative approach refers to use of

purposive sampling and semi-structured, open-ended interviews for data collection and

analysis techniques. They however believe that for detailed analysis of sociopolitical and

economic processes both techniques allow to produce and analyze the textual datum

(Krishna and Shrader, 1999). On the contrary Bamberger (2000) theorizes that neither of

the research approach is superior with each having own merits and demerits. Although

combining of both the approaches is often highly productive but the important question

however is how to choose a suitable combination once research questions or the problems

have been correctly defined (Bamberger, 2000).

A combination of both quantitative and qualitative approaches has been applied to

compensate the weaknesses of one with the strengths of the other. Moreover, each of the

strategies has distinctive characteristics that make the possibility of combining them more

attractive (Bryman, 1988). The idea of employing multiple methodological strategies by

the researcher to avoid looking at social phenomenon through a particular lens is also

92

supported by different scholars as this methodological plurality encourages the diversity of

views and exploration of truths (Philips, 1998).

4.2 Universe of Study

The study has been undertaken in all parts of the North Waziristan to grasp issues

that had been confronted by local population during recent past especially after United

States led military occupation of Afghanistan. The inhabitants from all three Sub-divisions

of the agency were contacted to seek their feedback for in-depth analysis of the research

questions. The efforts were made to select the respondents from each Tehsil while taking

into account the impact of terrorism on these parts of the agency.

4.2.1 Miranshah Sub-Division

Miranshah sub-division had the highest concentration of terrorists including

foreign and their local accomplices. During the period of militancy, Miranshah served as

the nerve center from where terrorists not only controlled and coordinated their activities

in the agency but also throughout the country. Maximum respondents were approached in

this sub-division to get their feedback about research questions.

4.2.2 Mirali Sub-Division

After Miranshah, Mirali sub-division was most terrorist infested area in the agency

under study. Local population from this area also suffered the most at the hands of

militants during the period of terrorism led conflict. The second largest number of

respondents was selected from this area for reliable results from the collected data.

4.2.3 Razmak Sub-Division

Sub-division Razmak had maximum number of Mehsud terrorists and the least of

the foreign militants when compared with the other parts of the agency. Therefore number

of respondents from Razmak area was selected on comparative basis to add reliability to

the process of data analysis.

4.3 Research Variables

The instruments used for the mentioned variables has been adapted from well-

known definitions. The eight steps procedure proposed by the Churchill (1979) for

developing measuring instrument has been followed. Following research variables have

93

been identified to study the causes of conflict followed by rehabilitation strategy in the

post conflict environment.

Table 6:

Research Variables

Serial Description Construct No of items

1. Dependent Conflict 6

a. Independent Terrorism 5

b. Independent Poor Governance 5

c. Independent Lack of Civic Services 5

2. Dependent Rehabilitation Framework 7

a. Independent Social Restoration 6

b. Independent Economic Recovery 6

c. Independent Governance Reforms 5

Source: Author‘s Compilation

4.4 Sampling Technique

Sampling is an essential tool to conduct a research because real outcomes greatly

depend upon the accuracy of sample size and sampling procedure. Accurate sample size

also known as precession is helpful in predictability of any phenomenon (Frankfort-

Nachmias and Nachmias, 1992). The decision to take appropriate sample is guided by the

need for equally representative and unbiased responses. The research has used non-

probability sampling design to collect relevant information needed to explore the causes of

conflict and to suggest post conflict rehabilitation strategy. For this reason various

segments of Waziristan community living inside or outside the agency were approached

for data collection. The respondents included tribal Maliks, religious leaders, government

and private servants, business community, Temporary Displaced Persons, subject experts,

students and un-employed individuals.

94

4.5 Sample Size

According to 1998 census report, total counted population of FATA is 31,76,331

out of which 3,61,246 are from the Waziristan Agency (Pakistan, 1998). However during

2013, local political administration had estimated surge in the agency population bringing

the population equal to 4,78,000 (Y. Akhunzada, personal communication, October 7,

2016). Bearing in mind the multiplicity of variables, the sample size has been drawn as

guided by following sampling size formula.

Where ―Z‖ represents the Z value (e.g. 1.96 for 95% confidence level), ―p‖ reflects

the picking a choice expressed as decimal (0.5 used for sample size needed), and ―c‖ is the

confidence interval expressed as decimal (e.g., .04 = ±4).

According to standard survey rules, the sample size calculated with 95%

confidence level and confidence interval ranging between 3 to 5 is the most appropriate to

obtain responses for reliable data analysis. While anticipating the possibility of low

response rate due to peculiar sociocultural environments of the agency, 725 respondents

were approached by distributing questionnaires to register their response. However, only

535 questionnaires were received back including 32 unfilled thereby leaving 503 carrying

usable data for subsequent analysis. The measured values of confidence interval range

equal to 4.37 and confidence level 95% are within the given limits suggesting a sample

size of 503 respondents. Sample distribution for three sub-divisions is given in table 7.

Table 7:

Sample Distribution

Sub-Division Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Miranshah 267 53.1 53.1

Mirali 164 32.6 85.7

Razmak 72 14.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Sources: Author‘s Compilation

ss = Z 2

* (p) * (1-p)

c 2

95

4.6 Sample Rationale

4.6.1 Maliks and Religious Leaders

Maliks and religious leaders had been playing an important role in the

government‘s fight against terrorism. Both tribal maliks and religious leaders greatly

contributed in determining the study directions by providing needed information. They

also have an important role in reference to FCR, counter insurgency and other affairs

related to post conflict rehabilitation process.

4.6.2 Displaced Persons

Displaced persons were those permanent residents of North Waziristan who had

unblemished understanding of the issue. The information collected from them helped the

researcher to precisely understand the nature, intensity and direction of the research. They

unequivocally explained all the events that damaged the sociocultural matrix of the society

resulting into diminished writ of the state despite explicit and implicit state interventions.

4.6.3 Business Community

The business community is one of the key stakeholders in terms of goods and

services available in the area under study. The information provided by business

community helped in exploring the relevant socioeconomic parameter as flow of money

suffered due to foreign currency circulation into the local market especially for purpose of

paying salaries to terrorists. This phenomenon not only ruined the businesses but also

promoted the terrorism weakening the writ of the state in the agency (Alam., Ahmed, and

Muhammad, 2014).

4.6.4 Experts and the Students

The perception of academicians and local students studying at post graduate level

in different universities and institutions in Islamabad was recorded to investigate the

research problem. It is important to mention that the educated individuals including

students had first-hand knowledge of various factors responsible to ruin socioeconomics as

well as political system of the agency.

96

4.6.5 Government Officials

The government functionaries of the agency including political administration and

security forces have been playing key role to fight the conflicts breeding terrorism. Since

all decisions relating to administration and countering insurgency fall under the domain of

government officials; therefore their input have hugely helped the researcher to meet the

study objectives.

4.7 Data Collection

Antonius (2003) succinctly writes that the ―word data points to information that is

collected in a systematic way and organized and recorded to enable the reader to interpret

the information correctly‖. He further states that the process of data collection is not a

haphazard one, but it is done in response to research queries being investigated by the

researcher (Antonius, 2003). The essence of data collection is open to reconfiguration and

therefore is an alternative way of seeing and finding answers to the queries being

investigated (Schostak, 2006).

4.7.1 Data Sources

The research is primarily based on the primary data gathered through feedback

given by respondents from all three sub-divisions of the subject area. The respondents

included tribal maliks, religious leaders, government and private servants, business

community, Temporary Displaced Persons, subject experts, students and un-employed

individuals. The primary data has been supplemented by the information gathered from

archives of the political administration, FATA secretariat development plans and non-

participatory personal observations. The secondary data has also been collected made from

different development project reports and concerned locals reports from national and

international organizations for detailed desk review.

4.7.2 Collection Tools

The data collection tools have been selected according to the nature of field

research, culture of local communities, geography, and other ground realities. The research

questions necessitated exercising of extreme caution during the process of data collection

in a highly traditionalist tribal society. Therefore instead of adopting the available scales, a

self-administered questionnaire was adopted while keeping in view the sociocultural

sensitivities of the area. The self-administered questionnaire used the 5- point Likert scale

97

which is a ―technique for measurement of attitudes, describing the concepts and principles,

and an instrument to quantify constructs describing psychological and social phenomena‖

(Likert, 1932). Nachmias (1992) also believes that Likert scale used as data collection

tool during the survey is the most reliable technique for attitude measurements. The scale

statements were framed on the basis of literature review, field observations by researcher

and discussions with the relevant experts. The individual responses were classified

according to 5- point Likert scale as ―strongly agree‖, ―agree‖, ―neutral‖ ―disagree‖ and

―strongly disagree‖. The scale statements were given personal scores and pretested in

order to remove any error or ambiguity or to add something more important to investigate

the problem before actual data collection process could be started.

For data collection different sections of the questionnaire were framed to index the

locals‘ perceptions about the causes of conflict and popular dimensions of the

development before suggesting a rehabilitation framework covering sociocultural,

economic and politico-administrative dimensions. The self-administered questionnaire

included following three core sections with forty five (45) questions / items to extract

relevant information needed to answer the research questions while testing the statements

of research hypotheses.

Section A: Demographic profile of the respondents

Section B: Causes of conflict

Section C: Rehabilitation strategy

The process of scale development commenced with the pilot testing a set of 70

questions / items by seeking feedback from 25 respondents. Based on the respondents

input, the questionnaire was modified and a new questionnaire consisting 45 questions /

items was finalized. Copy of the self-administered questionnaire has also been placed at

annexure M. The questionnaire was again pilot tested by seeking response form 120

respondents to establish the scale reliability. Following Chronbach‘s alpha formula

(Chronbach, 1984) was used during the pilot testing to ascertain questionnaire reliability

by measuring internal consistency of the scale.

Where ―N‖ represents the number of items, ―c ‖ indicates the average covariance

between items, and ―v ‖ gives the average variance.

98

The reliability of questionnaire depends on purpose and type of adopted scale; a 5-

point likert scale in this case. Ideally the Cronbach alpha coefficient of a scale should be

above 0.7 (DeVellis, 2003). A thumb rule for Cronbach alpha interpretation of

dichotomous questions with possibly two answers or for the Likert scale questions are

reflected in Table 8 given below.

Table 8:

Cronbach Alpha Standards

Cronbach Alpha Internal Consistency

Excellent

Good

Acceptable

Questionable

Poor

Unacceptable

Source: Cronbach Alpha (1984)

The Cronbach alpha coefficient value 0.909 measured during the pilot testing

through feedback from 120 respondents confirms the reliability of self-administered scale

as the value is greater than 0.70 (Nunally, 1978). Cronbach alpha values measured for two

research dimensions during the pilot testing are given below in table 9.

Table 9:

Cronbach Alpha Values

Scale Cronbach Alpha No of questions

Causes of Conflict .914 21

Rehabilitation strategy .915 24

Total Items - 45


4.7.3 Collection Process

The data collection has been carried out during the period from July 2016 to Jun

2017, by carrying survey, visiting concerned offices, areas of relevant communities and

99

other stake holders bearing in mind the availability of respondents and requisite security

measures. For the purpose of data collection; a total of 800 sets of questionnaire were

distributed among the potential respondents from the North Waziristan. However only 535

questionnaire including 32 unfilled were received back from the respondents thus leaving

503 questionnaire with usable data. The response rate during the process of data collection

therefore remained 62.90 percent which according to Sekaran (2010) is acceptable.

4.7.4 Problems Encountered

Major problem encountered during the process of data collection was the security

concerns due to sensitivity of the area under study. Moreover, few respondents were

hesitant to share their views regarding sociopolitical environments of the agency. However

there also existed a fairly large number of respondents who were anxious and looking

forward to talk about their social, political and economic problems. Most of the data

collection process was under taken with the assistance of local political administration

which facilitated in holding meetings with different segments of the local community to

seek their views to investigate identified research questions.

4.8 Data Analysis

The study has used combination of multiple data analysis tools and techniques for

detailed evaluation of the available data. The collected data has been analyzed

systematically and interpreted by applying Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS)

software program. In addition to the descriptive statistics, Factor Analysis, Cronbach

Alpha Coefficient, Pearson‘s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC) and

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis have also been used during the data analysis.

The collected data was narrowed down and summarized through tabulations and

diagrammatic representations by using content analysis methodology; ―a systematic,

replicable technique for compressing many words of text into fewer content categories

based on explicit rules of coding‖ (Weber, 1990) and through hermeneutics which is an

attempt to make clear, to make sense of an object of study (Taylor, 1976). Subsequently

the process of data analysis commenced with confirmation of data reliability by applying

the Normality test using skewness and kurtosis analysis which bear no effect on the

analysis results for sufficiently large sample like 200 plus (Tabachnick and Fidell, 2007).

The test described a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve, with high frequency scores in the

middle and smaller frequencies at both extremes (Gravetter and Wallnau, 2016).

100

After having established the reliability of collected data, the scale validity for both

complete scale and the individual variables was checked through Cronbach alpha

coefficient. The descriptive analysis was then carried out to get the detailed information

about different observed variables including socio-demographic profile of the respondents.

The results from analysis were presented in the form of percentage and frequency.

Following the descriptive analysis, the association between dependent and independent

variables was observed by using Pearson‘s correlation method of bivariate analysis. The

analysis revealed that the direction of responses favoring or disfavoring one or more

aspect of variables under investigation. Subsequently the research variables were validated

by subjecting the collected data to Factor analysis. Thereafter the validated data was

subjected to multiple Regression analysis to explore the research variables to conclude

necessary policy options for comprehensive rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict

environments.

4.9 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives detailed account of the research methodology followed during

the research process. The chapter after defining the research design discusses about the

universe of study. After deliberating the research variables, the chapter describes sampling

technique and rational followed by data collection including sources, data collection tools,

data collection process and problems encountered. Subsequent section of this chapter

explain the data analysis process mentioning different methods used during the data

analysis to investigate the research questions. Final section of this chapter also gives

delimitations of the research in hand.

101

CHAPTER 5

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

102

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

This chapter presents results of the analysis along with systematic interpretation of

collected data through application of quantitative research tools. The data analysis has

been carried out by using SPSS software and the results have been presented in the form

of tables and graphs. The documentation and analysis is aimed at to present the data in a

logical and interpretable form. .

The data has been gathered through a self-administered questionnaire completed

by 503 respondents (n=503) with response rate of about 63 percent. Hussey and Hussey

(1997) categorizes two types of non-response; firstly the ―questionnaires are not returned

at all‖ and secondly ―some of the questions in the questionnaire have not been answered‖.

The Division of Instructional Innovation and Assessment (2010) from the University of

Texas observes that for studies designed to measure effects or to make generalizations to

larger population, the response rate is more significant. The DIIA also claims that the

response rate is comparatively less significant in case of studies conducted only to gain an

insight of certain phenomenon (Texas, 2010). The DIIA further observes that for

electronically completed questionnaires, the average value of response rate varies between

30 to 40 percent (Texas, 2010). The value and the validity of the technique as well as

results are questionable if the response rate is less than 30 percent (Gillham, 2010). The

response rate value of 63 percent is significant for the study in hand and therefore the

value and validity of the results can be used to generalize the findings of the study.

. In this chapter data collected through self administered questionnaire has been

statistically analyzed. The analysis commences with the discussion about demographic

profile of the respondents followed by the exploratory factor analysis. The following

sections of this chapter dilate upon the normality test for subsequent regression analysis.

5.1 Demographic Profiling

This part of the self-administered questionnaire comprises the respondent‘s

demographic and personal details including age, gender, education, profession, house

status and the sub-division of residence. Though this section is not central to the research

problem, however personal details and demographic profile of the respondents assisted in

contextualizing the research findings to formulate a comprehensive post conflict


103

5.1.1 Respondents’ Age

The respondents from the subject area were asked to give the information

regarding their age group. Table 10 below gives the age groups of the respondents.

Table 10:

Respondent’s Age

Age Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

18 to 25 Years 193 38.4 38.4

26 to 35 Years 178 35.4 73.8

35 to 50 Years 103 20.5 94.2

51 and above 29 5.8 100.0

Total 503 100.0


Table 10 reflects that maximum respondents numbering to 193 belong to age group

between 18 to 25 years followed by 178 respondents with the ages ranging from 26 to 35

years. The data indicates that bulk of the respondents measuring about 74 percent

belonged to age bracket from 18 to 35 years. The remaining 26 percent respondents come

from two different age groups with 21 percent falling between 35 to 50 years and 6

percent belonging to ages more than 51 years. The data signifies that the youth with ages

ranging between 18 to 35 years is more concerned to form part of the correction process.

The data also reflects the respondents‘ willingness to share their views about turmoil faced

during recent years and rehabilitation strategy for post conflict environments.

5.1.2 Respondents’ Gender

The respondents‘ feedback has also been measured on gender basis. Table 11

below reflects the gender distribution of respondents from the sampled community.

Table 11:

Respondent’s Gender

Gender Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Male 436 86.7 86.7

104

Female 67 13.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0


Table 11 above shows that about 87 percent respondents; numbering 436 belonged

to male gender group while around 7 percent of the respondents counting 67 came from

the female gender group. The data indicates that the perceptions are mostly male

dominated with very small representation of female folks. The data is true reflection of a

male dominated tribal society where males decide the future socioeconomic and politico-

administrative fortunes. However the feedback from female gender in a traditionalist

society of North Waziristan; though very small in percentage is of immense importance in

suggesting post conflict rehabilitation strategy encompassing views from both the genders.

5.1.3 Respondents’ Education

The respondents were also asked to furnish information regarding their educational

background. In order to facilitate them four different categories based on the levels of

education in terms of number of years were suggested. Table 12 below gives different

categories of respondent‘s educational background.

Table 12:

Respondent’s Education

Education Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Below Primary 59 11.7 11.7

Primary to Middle 121 24.1 35.8

Matric to Bachelor 196 39.0 74.8

Masters and above 127 25.2 100.0

Total 503 100.0


Table 12 above indicates that respondents who shared their perceptions have come

from different educational levels. About 39 percent of the respondents numbering 196

have the educational level between Matric to Bachelors followed by 25 percent

105

respondents counting 127 with the educational background of Masters or above. There are

about 24 percent numbering 121 who have the education levels between primary to

middle. However 59 respondents measuring around 11 percent of the total recorded

responses came from comparatively uneducated class having education below primary

level. Collected data signifies that recorded responses almost cover the entire educational

spectrum of North Waziristan society comprising about 64 percent educated class with

educational background of Matric or above.

5.1.4 Respondents’ Profession

The feedback regarding respondents‘ profession was also sought to ascertain their

economic conditions. The given response is based on six different options suggested to the

respondents. Table 13 below shows the professional details of the sampled community.

Table 13:

Respondent’s Profession

Profession Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Government Job 61 12.1 12.1

Private Job 30 6.0 18.1

Own Business 78 15.5 33.6

Jobless 62 12.3 45.9

Student 197 39.2 85.1

Others 75 14.9 100.0

Total 503 100.0


The data in table 13 above shows that the responses came from respondents

belonging to different professions ranging from jobless, and students to the members of

business community. The bulk of respondents 197; about 39 percent are the students

including those who are currently engaged in their educational pursuits at different

colleges and the universities in Islamabad. The other two categories with next higher

number of respondents comprised of the members from business community and those

engaged in different economic activities including religious leadership. The responses

received from these two classes are about 15 percent each with 78 and 75 respondents

106

respectively. About 18 percent respondents including 6 percent pursuing their profession

with private businesses also offered their feedback. Also the data includes 62 jobless

respondents measuring about 12 percent of the total number. The above statistics indicate

that the registered responses include perception from different professionals and therefore

the rehabilitation policy framework developed based on these responses will have the

wider acceptability for successful reconstruction strategy in post conflict environments.

5.1.5 Respondents’ Residence

The respondents were asked to provide information about the area of residence in

order to ascertain the impact of conflict on their socioeconomic conditions. Due to socio-

security concerns, they were only asked to share their sub-division of residence. The

recorded details of respondents‘ residence are shown in Table 14 given below.

Table 14:

Respondent’s Residence

Tehsil Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Miranshah 267 53.1 53.1

Mirali 164 32.6 85.7

Razmak 72 14.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0


The data in table 14 above shows that the respondents belonged to all three sub-

divisions of North Waziristan. The most of the respondents 267; about 53 percent of the

total came from Miranshah sub-division due to obvious reasons of being the largest and

thickly populated area of the agency. Moreover the Miranshah sub-division suffered the

most at the hands of terrorists and their accomplices. From Mirali sub-division 164

respondents; making about 37 percent of the total, contributed to the data collection

process. The Mirali used to be the second most terrorists‘ infested sub-division and

therefore the residents suffered hugly during the period of terrorism driven conflict. The

lowest number of respondents about 14 percent numbering 72 of the total sampled

population came from Razmak sub-division; a reasonably acceptable figure when

considered in terms of the area accessibility, population and sufferings at the hands of

107

terrorists before successful military operation Zarb-e-Azb. The collected data gives an

insight of the overall perception of the local community from the agency under study.

Therefore the recorded responses can be generalized across the North Waziristan to arrive

at a comprehensive rehabilitation framework in the post conflict settings.

5.2 Data Analysis

The results of statistical analysis are the descriptions, the relationships, the

comparisons and the predictions (Fink, 1995). The statistical analysis technique is one of

the most commonly adopted methods while carrying out different surveys. The technique

that has been followed during this chapter have been presented with the help of tables and

graphs, and traced back by the relevant discussions. Coming sections of the study has

discussed different analytical tests used for data validation.

5.2.1 Normality Test

Normality Test for all dependent and independent variables was carried out by

measuring the skewness and kurtosis.

5.2.1.1 Causes of Conflict

Table 15 below gives the Normality Test values for twenty one questions / items

surveyed to explore the causes of conflict.

Table 15:

Normality Test; Causes of Conflict

Question N Mean Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error

Q-1 503 1.9920 1.185 .109 .756 .217

Q-2 503 2.1292 .883 .109 .243 .217

Q-3 503 2.1113 1.120 .109 .638 .217

Q-4 503 2.1312 .956 .109 .342 .217

Q-5 503 2.0656 1.094 .109 .638 .217

Q-6 503 1.8330 1.428 .109 1.259 .217

Q-7 503 2.2485 .745 .109 -.162 .217

108

Q-8 503 2.3757 .771 .109 -.208 .217

Q-9 503 2.0477 1.139 .109 .528 .217

Q-10 503 2.3539 .622 .109 -.399 .217

Q-11 503 2.3181 .670 .109 -.335 .217

Q-12 503 2.4732 .665 .109 -.502 .217

Q-13 503 2.3201 .658 .109 -.543 .217

Q-14 503 2.2883 .680 .109 -.585 .217

Q-15 503 2.3439 .712 .109 -.624 .217

Q-16 503 2.1133 .880 .109 -.363 .217

Q-17 503 1.8588 1.156 .109 1.004 .217

Q-18 503 2.0099 1.139 .109 .927 .217

Q-19 503 1.8807 1.272 .109 .861 .217

Q-20 503 1.8887 1.192 .109 .390 .217

Q-21 503 2.0716 1.194 .109 1.182 .217

Valid N 503


Table 15 above gives the measured values of both skewness and kurtosis for all

twenty one question items surveyed to examine the causes of conflict. The results reflect

that measure of skewness for all the items ranges from 0.622 to 1.428, whereas kurtosis

for all twenty one items remains between -0.624 to 1.259. The above results conclude

that values are within the acceptable limits of normality as the skewness and kurtosis

values have been found in confirmatory to the rule of thumb where the measured values

should be less than two and seven respectively (West, Finch, and Curan, 1995).

5.2.1.2. Rehabilitation Strategy

Table 16 below gives the Normality Test values for twenty four questions / items

surveyed to explore options for post conflict rehabilitation strategy.

109

Table 16:

Normality Test: Rehabilitation Strategy

Question N Mean Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error

Q-22 503 2.2266 .818 .109 -.235 .217

Q-23 503 2.0358 1.175 .109 .616 .217

Q-22 503 2.2604 .842 .109 -.179 .217

Q-25 503 2.2167 1.131 .109 .626 .217

Q-26 503 2.1968 1.208 .109 .757 .217

Q-27 503 2.1650 1.055 .109 .638 .217

Q-28 503 1.9304 1.202 .109 .495 .217

Q-29 503 1.8966 1.435 .109 1.956 .217

Q-30 503 1.9364 1.290 .109 1.439 .217

Q-31 503 1.9284 1.301 .109 .999 .217

Q-32 503 1.9205 1.218 .109 .944 .217

Q-33 503 1.9245 1.332 .109 1.820 .217

Q-34 503 1.8211 1.356 .109 1.053 .217

Q-35 503 1.8191 1.378 .109 1.900 .217

Q-36 503 1.9264 1.486 .109 1.856 .217

Q-37 503 2.0557 1.095 .109 .709 .217

Q-38 503 1.7137 1.523 .109 1.993 .217

Q-39 503 1.9881 1.240 .109 1.221 .217

Q-40 503 2.0179 1.131 .109 .609 .217

Q-41 503 1.8887 1.131 .109 .763 .217

Q-42 503 1.8748 1.278 .109 1.066 .217

Q-43 503 2.0795 1.022 .109 .296 .217

110

Q-44 503 2.0020 .920 .109 .260 .217

Q-45 503 1.7793 1.313 .109 .902 .217

Valid N 503


Table 16 above gives the measured values of both skewness and kurtosis for all

twenty four items surveyed to explore options for rehabilitation strategy. The results

indicate that skewness values for all items range from 0.818 to 1.523, whereas measured

kurtosis values for all twenty four items remain between -0.235 to 1.993. The above

results conclude that values are within the acceptable limits of normality as the skewness

and kurtosis values have been found in confirmatory to the rule of thumb where the

measured values should be less than two and seven respectively (West, Finch, & Curan,

1995).

5.2.2 Uni-dimensionality Test (Exploratory Factor Analysis)

The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is a statistical procedure that helps in

reducing the large number of observed variables to a small number of factors. It also helps

to identify the correlation among a group of observed variables and also transforms them

into a small number of related factors. During the process consistency of observed

variables is also identified through ―factor extraction‖ and ―factor rotation‖. The most

commonly used method of factor extraction is the ‗eigenvalue rule‘ or the Kaiser‘s

criteria. According to eigenvalue rule, the items having eigenvalue greater than 1 or those

explaining 70-80% of total variance should be retained. Scree test can also be used for

factor extraction by using Scree plot technique according to which all factors above elbow

must be retained (Catell, 1966). Also the Horn‘s parallel analysis can also be applied for

factor extraction where the comparison is drawn between the measured eigenvalues and

those obtained from Monte Carlo PCA for parallel analysis (Essays, 2003). In this

technique the factors whose actual eigenvalues calculated through principal component

analysis (PCA) are greater than the values measured from the Monte Carlo PCA are

retained for further analysis.

In oblique rotation method ‗correlation between the extracted factors‘ is measured

through pattern matrix, structure matrix and component correlation matrix. The pattern

matrix shows the pattern loading of regression coefficient of items on each factor while

111

convergent validity is measured by observing high factor loading of converged items. The

structure matrix indicates the structure of loadings with discriminant validity assessed by

cross loadings. The component correlation matrix suggests the relationship strength

between extracted factors and is therefore important for making choice between

orthogonal and oblique rotation. In social sciences there always exists certain degree of

correlation between different factors therefore reliance on orthogonal rotation analysis

may lead to loss of important information if correlation exists between the factors

(Costello and Osborne, 2005). The oblique rotation generally produces an idealistic and

correct pattern of loadings therefore the researchers should use oblique rotation only

(Schmitt, 2011). Therefore it can be concluded exploratory factor analysis will be a useful

data analysis tool to confirm the causes of conflict as well as to explore the relationship

among observed variables to outline a comprehensive rehabilitation framework in post

conflict environments.

5.2.2.1 Causes of Conflict

The respondents were approached to share their feelings about the emergence of

terrorism which ultimately lead to the state of conflict. Their perception of different

problems of the agency including sociocultural, economic and governance chaos was

recorded to develop a thorough understanding of the impasse faced by them during the

conflict period. The background knowledge of recorded dimensions in socially engineered

Waziristan society is a prerequisite for application of systems thinking approach to suggest

appropriate rehabilitation framework (Senge, 2010). The nature of corrective strategy to

deal with diverse and complex issues of post conflict rehabilitation of the North

Waziristan society can therefore only be outlined once feelings of the local community

have been registered. This section gives an insight to the views of the sampled population

regarding emergence of terrorism led state of conflict experienced by local community

during the recent past. The respondents‘ views about the socioeconomic and politico-

administrative conditions of the agency have also been sought to understand their

relationship with the emergence of terrorism in the agency. In this regard following

research questions have been explored during the course of research.

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism?

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the lack of civic services?

Is there any significant relationship between conflict and poor governance?

112

Twenty one items while exploring the causes of conflict has been subjected to the

principal component analysis (PCA) using SPSS. Prior to the execution of principal

component analysis (PCA), the data has been analyzed by using following methods to

access its suitability for further analysis.

5.2.2.1.1 KMO and Bartlett's Test

According to KMO test explanation given by Kaiser (1974) and Field (2000), the

sample is regarded as satisfactory if the measured value of KMO test is more than 0.5

(Kaiser, 1970). The Kaiser Meyer-Olkin value measured for research component of causes

of conflict is 0.905 which is well above the minimum recommended value of 0.5 (Kaiser.,

1974). Moreover, Bartlett‘s Test of Sphericity which is the measure of multivariate

normality reached the statistical significance thereby supporting the factorability of

correlation matrix (Bartlett, 1954). The significant value of 0.05 and below reflects that

data does not produce an identity matrix and is approximately multivariate normal for

further analysis (Pallant, 2013). Table 17 below gives the values of KMO and Bartlett's

Tests for causes of conflict.

Table 17:

KMO and Bartlett's Test; Causes of Conflict

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .905

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 4951.383

df 210

sig .000


5.2.2.1.2 Factor Extraction

The most commonly used approach for factor extraction is principal component

analysis by using either of the methods namely Kaiser‘s criterion (eigenvalue rule), Scree

test or Parallel analysis. The approach involves balancing of two requirements; firstly the

need to resolve research problem with as less number of factors as possible and secondly,

the requirement to explain as much of variance in original data as possible. It is

recommended that a researcher must adopt an exploratory approach while experimenting

with number of factors until a satisfactory solution is reached (Field, 2000). Table 18

113

below gives the eigenvalues to analyze the causes of conflict while suggesting an

appropriate rehabilitation framework.

Table 18:

Factor Extraction; Causes of Conflict

Comp

-onent

Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared

Loadings

Rotation Sums

of Squared

Loadings a

Total Varian-

ce %

Cumul-

ative %

Total Varian-

ce %

Cumul-

ative %

Total

1 7.189 34.232 34.232 7.189 34.232 34.232 5.412

2 2.408 11.469 45.700 2.408 11.469 45.700 4.608

3 1.911 9.101 54.801 1.911 9.101 54.801 4.632

4 1.705 8.117 62.919 1.705 8.117 62.919 3.987

5 .824 3.926 66.845

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

a. When components are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to

obtain total variance.


In this research principal component analysis (PCA) has revealed the presence of

four different components with eigenvalues exceeding ‗1‘ while explaining the total

variance of 62.919 percent. The first eigenvalue explaining 34.232 percent of the variance

in original data is measured to 7.189. The second factor eigenvalue is measured to 2.408

and it explains 11.469 percent of variance. Similarly the eigenvalue of third factor is

measured to 1.911 counting for 9.101 percent of total variance. The last factor is explained

by eigenvalue 1.705 that explains 8.117 percent of total variance. The results obtained

have also been tested with the help of Catell‘s (1966) scree test to verify factor‘s

extraction. The study of scree plot given as graph 1 below has also revealed a clear break

after 4th

component thus confirming the results obtained from the eigenvalue rule.

114

Graph 1:

Extracted Factors; Causes of Conflict


The number of extracted factors has further been confirmed by the results of

parallel analysis which also identified four components with eigenvalues exceeding the

corresponding criterion values for a randomly generated data matrix of the same size (21

items × 503 respondents). Table 19 given below indicates the results obtained from

parallel analysis.

Table 19:

Parallel Analysis; Causes of Conflict

Component # Actual eigenvalue

from PCA

Criterion value from

parallel analysis

Decision

1 7.189 1.3775 Accept

2 2.408 1.3103 Accept

3 1.911 1.2629 Accept

4 1.705 1.2228 Accept

5 .824 1.1828 Reject


115

The four-component solution has explained 62.919 percent of total variance with

component one contributing 34.232 percent, component two contributing 11.469 percent,

component three explaining 9.101 percent and component four contributing 8.117 percent.

To complement the explanation of four components, Oblimin rotation from oblique

rotation principal (Kim and Mueller, 1994) has also been performed. The rotated solution

revealed the presence of simple structure (Thurstone, 1947) with all four components

showing strong loadings with conflict on component one, terrorism on component two,

lack of civic services on component three and poor governance on component four.

The descriptive analysis has two specific forms of construct validity; convergent

validity and discriminant validity. The analysis has concluded that items used in the

research have adequate convergent and discriminant validities. The results given in the

tables below also reflect that observed pattern of correlation of six items of conflict, five

items of terrorism, five items of lack of civic services and five items of poor governance

are related to their same constructs. Tables 20 and 21 below respectively give pattern and

structure matrix for twenty one items related to the causes of conflict.

Table 20:

Pattern Matrix; Causes of Conflict

Question /

Item

Component

1 2 3 4

Q-3 .819

Q-5 .807

Q-4 .790

Q-6 .779

Q-2 .773

Q-1 .753

Q-9 .845

Q-8 .840

Q-7 .815

Q-10 .799

116

Q-11 .726 .109

Q-20 .796

Q-19 .791

Q-18 .785

Q-21 .769

Q-17 .768

Q-15 -.136 .848

Q-13 .817

Q-16 .139 .678

Q-14 .645

Q-12 .222 .605


Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization.


Table 21:

Structure Matrix; Causes of Conflict

Question /

Item

Component

1 2 3 4

Q-4 .823 .300 .345 .395

Q-3 .820 .314 .333 .309

Q-5 .805 .274 .334 .318

Q-1 .788 .322 .340 .351

Q-2 .782 .338 .235 .346

Q-6 .766 .267 .290 .289

Q-9 .307 .839 .321 .156

117

Q-10 .312 .826 .390 .205

Q-8 .285 .822 .281 .212

Q-7 .297 .799 .257 .231

Q-11 .310 .768 .390 .201

Q-19 .336 .384 .823 .254

Q-20 .306 .325 .795 .188

Q-18 .310 .308 .793 .262

Q-21 .337 .290 .786 .287

Q-17 .277 .307 .774 .271

Q-15 .227 .154 .276 .810

Q-13 .255 .145 .164 .776

Q-16 .455 .293 .329 .764

Q-12 .469 .267 .236 .694

Q-14 .319 .199 .251 .675




5.2.2.1.3 Factor Labeling

As suggested by Morgan (2003) the construct dimensions of the factors emerged

during factor analysis have been labeled in the same order with conflict as 1st factor

followed by civic services, governance and terrorism (Morgan, Zou, Vorhies, and

Katsikeas, 2003). The items in table 22 below have also been factored in familiar

components with conflict (CT) having items from CT1, to CT6 in 1st group as these move

together consistently. Similarly terrorism (TM) with items from TM1, to TM6 is in second

cluster followed by lack of civic services (CS) with items CS1, to CS6 in third cluster. The

4th

factor of poor governance (PG) comprising five items PG1, to PG5 is in fourth group.

118

The items have been numbered and labeled according to respective factor loadings in the

same group as given in Table 22 below.

Table 22:

Factor Labeling; Causes of Conflict

Factors Factor

loading

Conflict (CT)

CT1 Post Afghan war (1979-1991) settlement of foreign fighters implanted

the seeds of conflict

.819

CT2 The settler‘s exploitation of local cultural values of Hospitality and

Panah infused the elements of conflict

.807

CT3 Pakistan‘s policy to support NATO forces during the present Afghan

crises triggered the wave of recent conflict

.790

CT4 Socioeconomic conditions of the agency have been damaged by the

recently experienced conflict

.779

CT5 Traditional institution of conflict controlling mechanism ‗Jirga’ has

been targeted and rendered ineffective during the conflict

.773

CT6 Counter conflict military operations also contributed to the economic

setbacks suffered by local inhabitants

.753

Terrorism (TM)

TM1 Establishment of foreign funded madrassas during the Afghan war

(1979-1991) breaded the seeds of terrorism that lead to conflict

.845

TM2 Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars subsequently instituted the

terrorism born state of conflict

.840

TM3 Successive peace agreements made with the terrorists exacerbated the

state of ongoing conflict

.815

TM4 Lack of formal education served the cause of terrorism consequently

breading the conflict

.799

TM5 Lacked employment opportunities for local youth contributed to the

terrorism induced conflict

.726

119

Civic Services (CS)

CS1 Lack of sufficient water and sanitation schemes caused deprivation

multiplying the intensity of conflict

.796

CS2 Lack of advanced education facilities indirectly contributed to the

phenomenon of conflict

.791

CS3 Absence of technical or skill development centers added to the youth

unemployment that consequently promoted conflict

.785

CS4 Non-existent advanced health facilities contributed to the feelings of

neglect adding to the conflict

.769

CS5 Insufficient banking facilities coupled with absence of development

loans required to engage unemployed youth added to the conflict

.768

Poor Governance (PG)

GV1 Outdated traditional politico-administrative system of the agency failed

to control the terrorism born conflict

.848

GV2 Continuous socioeconomic neglect by successive governments

multiplied the terrorism instituted conflict

.817

GV3 Absence of concerted development efforts facilitated the inducement of

terrorism born conflict

.678

GV4 Absence of effective border control mechanism exacerbated the terrorist

activities resulting into conflict

.645

GV5 Politico-administrative system of the agency has been destroyed by the

recently experienced conflict

.605


5.2.2.1.4 Factor Description

Factor 1- Conflict (CT): This factor has been ranked first in the order and

contributes 34.232 percent towards the rated variance. The items that have been

loaded under factor - 1 indicate the broad contours of the conflict that emerged in

the agency during recent years. The attributes that loaded under this factor include

settlement of foreigners, support to NATO forces, the neglect by successive

governments, collapse of local values and economic setbacks caused by militancy.

120

The factor labeled as conflict is therefore key variable for in-depth understanding

of the conflict environments essential for successful rehabilitation strategy.

Factor 2- Terrorism (TM): This second ranked factor measures 11.469 percent

of the total variance. The items which contributed towards terrorism in the agency

include Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars, establishment of madrassas during

Afghan jihad (list of madrassas attached at annexure N), lack of development and

absence of requisite formal education facilities. Few other variables loaded under

this factor have not been considered under this factor due to values below the

acceptable limits.

Factor 3- Lack of Civic Services (CS): This third ranked factor measures

9.101 percent of the total variance. The items have been numbered according to

their loadings in the cluster and inquire about the sufficiency of water and

sanitation schemes, basic and advance education and health facilities, the presence

of technical training facilities and the availability of adequate banking facilities.

The analysis of collected data will help in outlining a suitable rehabilitation policy

for successful rehabilitation process. The details of existing education and health

facilities with very few in functional condition are given at annexure ‗O‘ and

annexure ‗P‘ respectively.

Factor 4- Poor Governance (PG): This factor is ranked fourth in the order of

loading and accounts for 8.117 percent towards overall variance. The items that

contribute to access the poor governance include lack of state efforts for

development, inducement of sense of deprivation, outdated system of

administration and insufficient local representation in the agency governance. Few

other items loaded under this factor have been rejected due to low loading values.

5.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

Exploratory analysis of the causes of conflict including terrorism, poor governance

and feedback regarding inadequacy of basic civic facilities in the area under research

provides an in-depth insight to the emergence of conflict. The evidence gathered through

statistical analysis of said factors affords needed visibility to identify a whole

encompassing rehabilitation strategy in post conflict settings of the North Waziristan. The

main dimensions of rehabilitation strategy have emerged from the analysis of data

collected to investigate relevant research questions surfaced during the course of literature

review and subsequently validated by exploratory analysis of the causes of conflict.

121

During the course of research, following questions have been enquired to study post

conflict rehabilitation in North Waziristan agency.

Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social

restoration?


economic recovery?


governance reforms?

Twenty four items covering the research dimension of post conflict rehabilitation

strategy have been analyzed by using principal component analysis (PCA) method. Before

performing the principal component analysis (PCA), the research data has been evaluated

by using following methods to judge its adequacy for further analysis.

5.2.2.2.1 KMO and Bartlett's Test

According to KMO test explanation given by Kaiser (1974) and Field (2000), the

sample is regarded as satisfactory if the measured value of KMO test is more than 0.5. The

Kaiser Meyer-Olkin value measured for research component of rehabilitation strategy is

0.943 which is well above the minimum recommended value of 0.5 (Kaiser., 1974).

Moreover, Bartlett‘s Test of Sphericity which is the measure of multivariate normality

reached the statistical significance thereby supporting the factorability of correlation

matrix (Bartlett, 1954). The significant value of 0.05 and below reflects that data does not

produce an identity matrix and is approximately multivariate normal for further analysis

(Pallant, 2013). Table 23 below gives the values of KMO and Bartlett's Tests for the

research component of rehabilitation strategy.

Table 23:

KMO and Bartlett's Test; Rehabilitation Strategy

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .943

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 6216.110

Df 276

Sig .000


122

5.2.2.2.2 Factor Extraction

The most commonly used approach for factor extraction is the principal component

analysis by using either of the methods namely Kaiser‘s criterion (eigenvalue rule), Scree

test or Parallel analysis. The approach involves balancing of two requirements; firstly the

need to resolve research problem with as less number of factors as possible and secondly,

the requirement to explain as much of variance in original data as possible. It is

recommended that a researcher must adopt an exploratory approach while experimenting

with number of factors until a satisfactory solution is reached (Field, 2000). Table 24

below indicates the eigenvalues measured for rehabilitation component of the research.

Table 24:

Factor Extraction; Rehabilitation Strategy

Comp

-onent

Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared

Loadings

Rotation Sums

of Squared

Loadings a

Total Varian-

ce %

Cumul-

ative %

Total Varian-

ce %

Cumul-

ative %

Total

1 9.312 38.800 38.800 9.312 38.800 38.800 7.095

2 2.209 9.204 48.003 2.209 9.204 48.003 5.817

3 1.950 8.123 56.127 1.950 8.123 56.127 5.703

4 1.436 5.985 62.112 1.436 5.985 62.112 6.203

5 .738 3.077 65.189


a. When components are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to

obtain total variance.


In this research principal component analysis (PSA) has revealed the presence of

four different components with eigenvalues exceeding ‗1‘ while explaining the total

variance of 62.112 percent. The first eigenvalue explaining 38.800 percent of the variance

in original data is measured to 9.312. The second factor eigenvalue is measured to 2.209

and it explains 9.204 percent of variance. Similarly the eigenvalue of third factor is

123

measured to 1.950 counting for 8.123 percent of total variance. The last factor is explained

by eigenvalue 1.436 that explains 5.985 percent of total variance. The results obtained

have also been tested with the help of Catell‘s (1966) scree test to verify factor‘s

extraction. The study of scree plot given as graph 2 below has also revealed a clear break

after 4th

component thus confirming the results obtained from the eigenvalue rule.

Graph 2:

Extracted Factors; Rehabilitation Strategy


The number of extracted factors has further been confirmed by the results of

parallel analysis which also identified four components with eigenvalues exceeding the

corresponding criterion values for a randomly generated data matrix of the same size (24

items × 503 respondents). Table 25 given below indicates the results obtained from

parallel analysis.

Table 25:

Parallel Analysis; Rehabilitation Strategy

Component # Actual eigenvalue

from PCA

Criterion value from

parallel analysis

Decision

1 9.312 1.4199 Accept

2 2.209 1.3538 Accept

124

3 1.950 1.3027 Accept

4 1.436 1.2577 Accept

5 .738 1.140 Reject


The four-component solution has explained 62.112 percent of total variance with

component one contributing 38.800 percent, component two contributing 9.204 percent,

component three explaining 8.123 percent and component four contributing 5.985 percent.

To complement the explanation of four components, Oblimin rotation from oblique

rotation principal (Kim and Mueller, 1994) has also been performed. The rotated solution

revealed the presence of simple structure (Thurstone, 1947) with all four components

showing strong loadings with rehabilitation framework on component one, economic

recovery on component two, social restoration on component three and governance

reforms on component four.

The analysis of collected data has confirmed that the items used to explore the

research component of the rehabilitation strategy have adequate convergent and

discriminant validities. The subsequent results shown in the tables given below also

indicate that the observed pattern of correlation of seven items of rehabilitation

framework, six items of economic recovery, six items of social restoration and five items

of the governance reforms are related to their same constructs. Tables 26 and 27 appended

below respectively give pattern and structure matrix for twenty four items related to the


Table 26:

Pattern Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy

Question / Item Component

1 2 3 4

Q-5 .810

Q-2 .797

Q-4 .788 .109

Q-1 .778

125

Q-6 .772

Q-3 .712 -.108 .152

Q-7 .683 .159

Q-12 .813

Q-11 .806

Q-8 .764

Q-10 .761

Q-9 .742 .101

Q-13 .708 .110

Q-19 .792

Q-18 .788

Q-14 .767

Q-16 .697

Q-17 .108 .661 .134

Q-15 .634

Q-23 .830

Q-21 .786

Q-20 .779

Q-22 .757

Q-24 .741



a. Rotation converged in 5 iterations.


126

Table 27:

Structure Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy

Question /

Item

Component

1 2 3 4

RF5 .850 .418 .387 .502

RF4 .838 .347 .416 .534

RF6 .826 .439 .354 .501

RF2 .826 .434 .338 .469

RF7 .768 .473 .344 .475

RF1 .725 .299 .310 .329

RF3 .723 .262 .420 .404

SR5 .353 .807 .318 .277

SR4 .359 .804 .265 .339

SR1 .387 .792 .354 .310

SR2 .407 .786 .311 .393

SR6 .413 .768 .388 .344

SR3 .302 .733 .222 .246

ER6 .335 .279 .781 .341

ER1 .377 .299 .773 .333

ER3 .404 .314 .752 .405

ER5 .265 .244 .748 .308

ER4 .364 .379 .741 .453

ER2 .432 .324 .724 .443

GR1 .460 .327 .430 .813

GR2 .486 .293 .382 .812

127

GR4 .409 .281 .355 .802

GR3 .429 .358 .427 .790

GR5 .481 .340 .336 .776




5.2.2.2.3 Factor Labeling

As suggested by Morgan (2003) the construct dimensions of the factors emerged

during the exploratory factor analysis have been labeled in the same order with

Rehabilitation Framework as first factor followed by Economic Recovery, Social

Restoration and Governance Reforms (Morgan, Zou, Vorhies, and Katsikeas, 2003). The

items given in table 28 below have also been factored in familiar components with the

rehabilitation framework (RF) consisting of seven items from RF1, to RF7 in first group as

these items consistently move together. Similarly the factor social restoration (SR)

consisting of six items from SR1 to SR6 is in second cluster followed by economic

recovery (ER) comprising of six items from ER1 to ER6 in third cluster. The 4th

factor of

governance reforms (GR) comprising of five items from GR1 to GR5 is in the fourth

group. The items of each factor have been numbered and labeled according to their

respective factor loadings in the same group. Table 28 given below shows the labeling of

factors discussed above.

Table 28:

Factor Labeling; Rehabilitation Strategy

Factors Factor

loading

Rehabilitation Framework (RF)

RF1 Process of tribal consultation is extremely important for successful

execution of post conflict rehabilitation projects

.810

RF2 Social re-integration of the former terrorists is essential to achieve the

long term rehabilitation objectives

.797

128

RF3 Revival and restoration of local socio-economic conditions will lead to

successful post conflict rehabilitation

.788

RF 4 Politico-administrative reforms are necessary to achieve the long term

objectives of rehabilitation strategy

.778

RF5 Development of communication infrastructure is imperative for

successful post conflict rehabilitation process

.772

RF6 Introducing the trade and business friendly policies are fundamental to

the post conflict rehabilitation strategy

.712

RF7 Exploration of the local demographic potential is vital for successful post

conflict rehabilitation

.683

Social Restoration (SR)

SR1 Formal de-radicalization programs for ex terrorists are needed to achieve

the long term rehabilitation objectives

.813

SR2 Introducing of state sponsored madrassa reforms are essential to check

the negative social engineering of the local youth

.806

SR3 Revival of tribal institution of Jirga will help in successful execution of

post conflict rehabilitation measures

.764

SR4 Development of civic facilities will lead to creation of social harmony

needed for sustained rehabilitation

.761

SR5 Mainstreaming the local youth by providing needed formal and technical

education facilities to achieve the long term rehabilitation objectives

.742

SR6 Development of recreational (sports) facilities will help positive social

assimilation of the local youth

.708

Economic Recovery (ER)

ER1 Process of post conflict economic recovery can be achieved by exploring

the local minerals potential

.792

ER2 Development of minerals trading yard with related technical

infrastructure will assist in economic rehabilitation

.788

ER3 Revival of local agro based and dairy industries will contribute to the .767

129

economic rehabilitation process

ER4 The establishment of public and private industry will generate

employment opportunities for local youth

.697

ER5 Exploring the agency water potential will enhance the local agricultural

land required for successful economic rehabilitation

.661

ER6 Extending loans for small businesses projects will facilitate in post

conflict economic revival of the TDPs

.634

Governance Reforms (GR)

GR1 FCR based politico-administration system of the agency should be

abolished for successful rehabilitation

.830

GR2 Like other settled districts of the country, the system of local

governments should be introduced in the agency

.786

GR3 The agency population should also be granted the right of access to

country‘s judicial system

.779

GR4 The agency system of law enforcement should be restructured to achieve

the objectives of rehabilitation process

.757

GR5 For successful rehabilitation process an effective border control

mechanism should be installed to arrest the terrorist movements from

Afghanistan

.741


5.2.2.2.4 Factor Description

Factor 1- Rehabilitation Framework (RF): This factor has been ranked

first in the order and accounts for 38.800 percent towards total rated variance. The

items loaded under this factor indicate that a comprehensive rehabilitation

framework is needed to address the post conflict problems. The items loaded under

this factor included addressing of deprivation, participatory development,

socioeconomic restoration, politico-administrative reforms, developing of

communication infrastructure, business friendly policies and the employment

130

opportunities. The factor labeled as rehabilitation framework will serve as a key

variable for further analysis of other dependent dimensions or factors in suggesting

policy options for successful post conflict rehabilitation strategy.

Factor 2 - Social Restoration (SR): This factor ranked second in the order

of loading contributes about 9.204 percent to overall measured value of total

variance. The items loaded under this factor include the need for different civic

reforms, need for madrassa reforms, social re-integration, de-radicalization of the

former terrorists, restoration of peace through local culture and development of

different recreational facilities.

Factor 3- Economic Recovery (ER): This third ranked factor measures

8.123 percent towards total assessed variance. The items loaded under this factor

are importance of exploring the agency demographic and water potentials,

development of dairy industry, exploring of the mineral resources and the

establishment of mining related facilities including trading yard as well as a

technical skill development center. Certain additional items loaded under this

factor have been discarded due to having values below the acceptable limits.

Factor 4- Governance Reforms (GR): The fourth factor ranked in the order

of loading is the governance reforms which shares 5.985 percent in the overall

measured value of total variance. The items loaded under this factor include the

abolishing of old FCR based system of governance, introducing the system of local

government, border monitoring and management, grant of access to judicial system

and introducing effective policing system. Few other items loaded in this cluster

have been disregarded due to low loading values.

5.2.3 Reliability Test

Reliability and internal consistency of the collected data has been ascertained by

measuring Cronbach alpha coefficient. Table 29 below gives reliability statics in terms of

Cronbach alpha for factors emerged during factor analysis.

Table 29:

Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient

Scale Cronbach's Alpha No of Items

Conflict Component .901 21

131

CT (DV) .887 6

TM (IV) .870 5

CS (IV) .854 5

PG (IV) .802 5

Rehabilitation Component .930 24

RF (DV) .903 7

SR (IV) .873 6

ER (IV) .849 6

GR (IV) .860 5

Total - 45


For any good scale, total correlation measurements should range between 0.30 and

0.70 (Ferketich, 1991). The rule of thumb has been also endorsed by Nunnally (1994) who

believed that Cronbach‘s alpha coefficient values measured greater than 0.60 are adequate.

Nunnally (1978) while describing the scale reliability argues that ―the closer Cronbach's

alpha is to 1.00, then the more reliable the scale is" (Armstrong and Foley, 2003). The

reliability coefficients measured for all variables as shown in Table 29 above exceed the

least acceptable value of 0.60 (Nunnally, 1978). Therefore, it is confirmed that the items

used in the construct of this scale are consistent and reliable.

5.3 Chapter Summary

This chapter covers two important aspects of the research; firstly, demographic

profiling of the respondents and secondly, the descriptive analysis of the collected data.

The first section covering demographic profiling gives personal and demographic details

of the respondents‘ comprising age, gender, education, profession and sub-division of

residence. The analysis of demographic profile reveals that most of the respondents (53

percent) belonging to worst terrorist hit sub-division Miranshah come from age groups

between 18 to 35 years (74 percent). The demographic profile analysis also discovers that

in male (87 percent) dominated tribal society of the area, maximum number of the

132

respondents (64 percent) either possess or still pursuing their higher education equal or

above Matric. The demographic analysis also signifies that recorded perceptions

sufficiently reflect the feelings of local population thereby confirming the generalization

of conclusions drawn.

The second section of this chapter gives descriptive analysis of collected data to

access its normality and reliability for further analysis. Subsequently the data has been

subjected to exploratory factor analysis for factors reduction and to access its suitability

for further analysis. The results have also revealed that collected data possesses sufficient

consistency to validate the assessed causes of conflict and to suggest suitable policy

options for successful rehabilitation strategy for post conflict settings in North Waziristan.

133

CHAPTER 6

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

134

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

This chapter empirically investigates the hypothesized relationships between

conflict and terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services. The Pearson‘s

correlation and Regression analysis have been used to establish the extent to which

independent variables of terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services contribute

towards the conflict. Before explaining relationship between dependent variable (conflict)

and independent variables terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services, this

chapter gives measured frequencies for each variable. Furthermore, the hypothesized

relationship between rehabilitation framework and social restoration, economic frecovery

and governance reforms have been tested through multiple regression analysis. All the

hypothesized relationships of the study have been tested in this chapter.

6.1 Frequency Analysis

To ascertain the numerical value of responses for each variable, frequency

measurement is an important first step towards analysis of quantitative data (Hussey and

Hussey, 1997). During the course of analyzing the questionnaire findings, frequency

measurement of respondent‘s feedback on forty five different question items has been

tabled to explore different dimensions of causes of conflict and rehabilitation. The

responses have been measured on 5-point Likert scale ranging from one (strongly agree) to

five (strongly disagree) covering different dimensions of the conflict and rehabilitation

strategy. The respondents‘ perception has been separately measured for each said

dimension through a set of relevant question items. The frequency analysis of feedback

regarding dependent and independent variables of both the research dimensions are

discussed in the ensuing paragraphs.


The factors of causes of conflict identified during the course of exploratory factor

analysis including one depended and three independent variables have been subjected to

frequency analysis. The results obtained from the frequency analysis of all dependent and

independent variables along with corresponding histograms have been discussed in this

section.

135

6.1.1.1 Conflict (DV)

There are six different questions which investigated the direct as well as indirect

causes of conflict coupled with their socioeconomic and politico-administrative impacts.

These question items include the settlement of foreigners, Pakistan‘s support to NATO

forces in Afghanistan, continuous neglect by successive governments, collapse of local

sociocultural values and role of economic setbacks due to militancy and counter military

operations in exacerbating the state of conflict. The overall perception index measured

through analysis of collected data validates the application of social engineering theory

which resulted into the state of conflict in the area under study. Table 30 below gives the

frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 30:

Frequency Analysis; Conflict

Conflict (DV) Strongly

Agree Agree Neutral Disagree

Strongly

Disagree Total

Q - 1

Frequency 207 176 64 29 27 503

Percent 41.2 35.0 12.7 5.8 5.4 100

Q – 2 Frequency 158 199 87 41 18 503

Percent 31.4 39.6 17.3 8.2 3.6 100

Q – 3 Frequency 161 221 54 38 29 503

Percent 32.0 43.9 10.7 7.6 5.8 100

Q – 4 Frequency 167 188 89 33 26 503

Percent 33.2 37.4 17.7 6.6 5.2 100

Q – 5 Frequency 188 177 86 21 31 503

Percent 37.4 35.2 17.1 4.2 6.2 100

Q – 6 Frequency 259 148 41 31 24 503

Percent 51.5 29.4 8.2 6.2 4.8 100


136

The recorded perception as indicated in table 30 above shows that almost all of the

question statements have been agreed by majority of the respondents. While responding to

the question six 80.9 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement which is the

highest recorded percentage. The maximum recorded percentage with the disagreement is

13.4 percent which has been measured for third question. The results from variable

analysis as given below in graph 3 reflect the overall agreement with measured mean

value of 2.04.

Graph 3:

Frequency Analysis; Conflict


6.1.1.2 Terrorism (IV)

This Factor is comprised of five different question items inquiring relationship

between terrorism and the state of conflict. The four question items asked from the

respondents included the Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars, establishment of

madrassas during the Afghan jihad, lack of socioeconomic development and lack of

formal education in the North Waziristan. The overall measured perception index validates

the application of different social engineering techniques especially settlement of

foreigners and establishment of foreign funded madrassas with the strategic objectives to

produce fighters to fight communist forces during Afghan Jihad. Table 31 below gives the


137

Table 31:

Frequency Analysis; Terrorism

Terrorism (IV) Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 7

Frequency 114 191 93 56 49 503

Percent 22.7 38.0 18.5 11.1 9.7 100

Q – 8 Frequency 143 182 78 74 26 503

Percent 28.4 36.2 15.5 14.7 5.2 100

Q – 9 Frequency 162 163 78 71 29 503

Percent 32.2 32.4 15.5 14.1 5.8 100

Q – 10 Frequency 160 164 70 64 45 503

Percent 31.8 32.6 13.9 12.7 8.9 100

Q - 11 Frequency 218 127 71 57 30 503

Percent 43.3 25.2 14.1 11.3 6.0 100


The measured response given in table 31 above shows the respondent‘s general

agreement with the question statements being investigated. In response to question eleven

68.6 percent respondents generally agreed with the question statement recording highest

percentage. The maximum percentage in disagreements has been registered as 21.6

percent in 10th

question. The overall analysis of items indicates the respondent‘s trend of

general agreement with mean value of 2.27 as given in graph 4 below.

138

Graph 4:

Frequency Analysis; Terrorism


6.1.1.3 Lack of Civic Services (IV)

The respondent‘s feedback regarding availability of basic civic facilities in the

agency has been recorded with a set of five relevant question statements. The measured

response has amply signified that the area is devoid of even basic social amenities

including education, technical, health, water and sanitation, and the money lending

facilities through banking sector. The explored perception index clearly indicates the

state‘s neglect thus allowing the exploitation of under privileged local community by

external and internal elements during the past. The question statements included the

queries about sufficiency of water and sanitation schemes, basic as well as advanced

education and health facilities, availability of technical education facilities, and the

availability of money lending facilities through banks. Table 32 below gives the frequency

of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 32:

Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services

Civic Services (IV) Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 17 Frequency 206 209 47 35 6 503

Percent 41.0 41.6 9.3 7.0 1.2 100

139

Q – 18 Frequency 167 234 46 42 14 503

Percent 32.2 46.5 9.1 8.3 2.8 100

Q – 19 Frequency 231 177 34 46 15 503

Percent 45.9 35.2 6.8 9.1 3.0 100

Q – 20 Frequency 249 147 36 56 15 503

Percent 49.5 29.2 7.2 11.1 3.0 100

Q – 21 Frequency 145 253 49 36 20 503

Percent 28.8 50.3 9.7 7.2 4.0 100


The response from the sampled community has indicated her discontentment over

quality as well as quantity of existing civic facilities. The maximum percentage in

agreement recorded in 17th

question is 82.5 percent whereas highest response recorded in

disagreement zone is 14.1 percent in 21st question. The results clearly reflect that the civic

facilities both basic and advance are much below the minimum local needs. The overall

result show that respondents‘ are in disagreement with the question statements with mean

value of 1.94 as shown in the graph 5 below.

Graph 5:

Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services


140

6.1.1.4 Poor Governance (IV)

The third factor of poor governance consists of five relevant question statements to

explore the relationship between effective governance and the conflict. Four out of five

statements explored the impact of outdated agency administrative system, insufficient

representations in the agency administration, absence of concerted efforts for development

and the resultant sense of deprivation. The feedback confirms the application of social

engineering as willing neglect deteriorated the law and order situation in the agency during

Afghan wars. Table 33 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 33:

Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance

Poor Governance

(IV)

Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 12

Frequency 144 188 96 52 23 503

Percent 28.6 37.4 19.1 10.3 4.6 100

Q – 13 Frequency 119 205 89 51 39 503

Percent 23.7 40.8 17.7 10.1 7.8 100

Q – 14 Frequency 191 194 49 41 28 503

Percent 38.0 38.6 9.7 8.2 5.6 100

Q – 15 Frequency 120 197 96 68 22 503

Percent 23.9 39.2 19.1 13.5 4.4 100

Q – 16 Frequency 127 198 91 65 22 503

Percent 25.2 39.4 18.1 12.9 4.4 100


The measured response reflects the general agreement of respondents with

question statements investigated under this factor. The highest percentage in agreement

has been recorded in question fifteen as 69.4 percent whereas the highest response

recorded in disagreement is 18.8 percent in question sixteen. The overall results however

141

indicate that respondents are in agreement with mean value measuring 2.31 as shown in

graph 6 given below.

Graph 6:

Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance



The factors identified during exploratory factors analysis of second research

dimension of rehabilitation strategy; including one depended and three independent

variables have been subjected to frequency analysis. The results obtained from the

frequency analysis of all dependent and independent variables along with corresponding

histograms have been discussed in this section.

6.1.2.1 Rehabilitation Framework (DV)

The first factor rehabilitation framework is comprised of seven different question

statements investigating the rehabilitation process. These question statements framed to

seek popular guidelines for successful rehabilitation strategy include the importance of

socioeconomic development, concept of participatory development by consulting the

locals while deciding the development projects, use of strong cultural instrument of Jirga

during the process, and need for effective politico-administrative reforms. Also certain

other important guidelines which may multiply the effectiveness of rehabilitation

measures include the development of communication infrastructure to improve

connectivity in the agency, introducing of business and trade friendly policies and

142

importance of social re-integration of former terrorists. Table 34 given below shows the


Table 34:

Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework

Rehabilitation

Framework (DV)

Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 1 Frequency 163 178 77 55 30 503

Percent 32.4 35.4 15.3 10.9 6.0 100

Q – 2 Frequency 197 188 52 35 31 503

Percent 39.2 37.4 10.3 7.0 6.2 100

Q – 3 Frequency 131 229 47 73 23 503

Percent 26.0 45.5 9.3 14.5 4.6 100

Q – 4 Frequency 129 248 53 34 39 503

Percent 25.6 49.3 10.5 6.8 7.8 100

Q – 5 Frequency 135 250 47 26 45 503

Percent 26.8 49.7 9.3 5.2 8.9 100

Q – 6 Frequency 141 229 70 35 28 503

Percent 28.0 45.5 13.9 7.0 5.6 100

Q – 7 Frequency 242 145 49 43 24 503

Percent 48.1 28.8 9.7 8.5 4.8 100


The response from sampled community indicates the respondents are in agreement

with suggested guidelines for post conflict rehabilitation strategy. The maximum

registered percentage of agreement is 76.9 percent in question seven whereas the highest

percentage in disagreement has been found as 19.1 percent in question three. The overall

result shows that the selected sample is in agreement zone with measured mean value of

2.14 as shown in graph 7 below.

143

Graph 7:

Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework


6.1.2.2 Social Restoration (IV)

The third factor of social restoration is composed of six question statements aimed

at to seek feedback on important aspect of post conflict social restoration. The question

statements investigating this dimension include the need for civic reforms including

provision of fundamental social facilities, the most important aspect of madrassa reforms

to streamline the madrassa education system, use of pakhtun cultural innate values for

social restoration and establishment of peace, assisting TDPs in their re-settlement and

finally the need for development of sports facilities. The response recorded on above

aspects has largely been found in agreement with the proposed social restoration measures.

Table 35 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 35:

Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration

Economic Recovery

(IV)

Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 8 Frequency 204 209 51 16 23 503

Percent 40.6 41.6 10.1 3.2 4.6 100

Q – 9 Frequency 189 221 46 30 17 503

Percent 37.6 43.9 9.1 6.0 3.4 100

144

Q – 10 Frequency 226 170 51 29 27 503

Percent 44.9 33.8 10.1 5.8 5.4 100

Q – 11 Frequency 206 200 42 41 14 503

Percent 41.0 39.8 8.3 8.2 2.8 100

Q – 12 Frequency 189 229 51 22 17 503

Percent 36.6 45.5 10.1 4.4 3.4 100

Q – 13 Frequency 264 136 51 33 19 503

Percent 52.5 27.0 10.1 6.6 3.8 100


The overall response shows indicates the respondents‘ strong agreement to the

proposed dimensions for post conflict social restoration during the rehabilitation phase.

The highest registered percentage of the respondents‘ agreement stands at 82.1 percent for

question twelve with maximum disagreement percentage as 11.2 percent in question ten.

The overall measured response reflects the respondents‘ strong agreement with question

statements with mean value 1.90 as shown in graph 8 below.

Graph 8:

Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration


145

6.1.2.3 Economic Recovery (IV)

This second factor is composed of six question statements investigating possible

options for post conflict economic recovery. The question statements based on the findings

of literature review have been subsequently confirmed through recorded responses

obtained during the process of data collection. The question statements include the option

for exploration of local natural and water potentials, prospects of developing the dairy

industry, development of minerals trading yard and related technical training facilities.

The overall response has largely remained in the agreement zone with proposed economic

recovery suggestions. Table 36 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 36:

Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery

Social Restoration

(IV)

Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 14 Frequency 221 198 51 20 13 503

Percent 43.9 39.4 10.1 4.0 2.6 100

Q – 15 Frequency 201 216 38 18 30 503

Percent 40.0 42.9 7.6 3.6 6.0 100

Q – 16 Frequency 185 183 85 22 38 503

Percent 36.8 36.4 16.9 4.4 5.6 100

Q – 17 Frequency 268 158 41 25 11 503

Percent 53.3 31.4 8.2 5.0 2.2 100

Q – 18 Frequency 181 218 54 29 21 503

Percent 36.0 43.3 10.7 5.8 4.2 100

Q – 19 Frequency 198 183 63 35 25 503

Percent 39.4 36.4 12.3 7.0 5.0 100


The overall response shows the respondents‘ general agreement with proposed

measures for post conflict economic recovery during the rehabilitation phase. The highest

146

recorded percentage of agreement stands at 84.7 percent for question seventeen whereas

the maximum disagreement percentage is recorded as 12.0 percent in question nineteen.

The overall result shows that the selected sample is in agreement with the question

statements measured mean value of 1.92 as shown in graph 9 below.

Graph 9:

Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery


6.1.2.4 Governance Reforms (IV)

The fourth factor of governance reforms is comprised of five different question

statements which have been put forth to establish popular dimensions of governance

reforms. The question statements include the option to abolish FCR based administrative

old system of governance, introducing the system of local governance like settled districts

of the country, monitoring and regulating the crossings on Afghan border, granting of

access to the country‘s judicial system and the introduction of new policing system to

maintain law and order. The response recorded on governance reforms has been found in

strong agreement. Table 37 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 37:

Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms

Governance

Reforms (IV)

Strongly


Strongly

Disagree Total

Q – 20 Frequency 216 182 60 35 10 503

Percent 42.9 36.2 11.9 7.0 2.0 100

147

Q – 21 Frequency 231 170 53 32 17 503

Percent 45.9 33.8 10.5 6.4 3.4 100

Q – 22 Frequency 173 209 48 54 19 503

Percent 34.4 41.6 9.5 10.7 3.8 100

Q – 23 Frequency 187 188 78 40 10 503

Percent 37.2 37.4 15.5 8.0 2.0 100

Q – 24 Frequency 271 132 51 38 11 503

Percent 53.9 26.2 10.1 7.6 2.2 100


The overall response indicates that the respondents strongly agree with proposed

dimensions of governance reforms during the post conflict environments. The highest

percentage of agreement has been recorded in question twenty four as 80.1 percent

whereas maximum percentage for disagreement has been measured as 14.5 percent in

question twenty two. The measured response indicates that the respondents strongly agree

with mean value 1.98 as reflected in the graph 10 given below.

Graph 10:

Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms


148

6.2 Correlation Analysis

The Pearson correlation coefficient between each pair of the independent variable

should not be measured more than 0.90 (F, Anderson, Tatham, & Black, 2006). The data is

suspected to contain certain serious co-linearity issues if the measured value of Pearson‘s

correlation coefficient exceeds 0.90 (F, Anderson, Tatham, & Black, 2006).

In order to check the collected data for co-linearity issues, the data has been

subjected to Pearson‘s correlation test. The maximum measured values of Pearson‘s

correlations for both of the research dimensions have been found well below the defined

upper limit of 0.90. The analysis thus rejects any violation of the assumptions of

normality, linearity and homoscedasticity in the research data. The analysis also confirms

that respective variables significantly contribute towards the state of conflict as well as the

rehabilitation strategy. The results obtained from Pearson‘s correlation for both dependent

and independent variables of causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy have been

discussed in coming paragraphs.


The values of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient for causes of conflict with CT as

dependent variable and TM, PG and CS as independent variables are shown in table 38

given below.

Table 38:

Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient; Causes of Conflict

CT TM PG CS

CT Pearson Correlation 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

N 503

TM Pearson Correlation .470**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 503 503

PG Pearson Correlation .383**

.286**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000

149

N 503 503 503

CS Pearson Correlation .410**

.350**

.421**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000

N 503 503 503 503

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).


The highest value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient measured in the conflict

dimension has been found as r = 0.47 which is between CT and TM whereas the minimum

value r = 0.383 has been observed between CT and PG. The Pearson‘s correlation analysis

given in above table offers following conclusions.

6.2.1.1 TM - CT Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis shows that variables CT and TM are strongly

and positively correlated in significant terms. The measured correlation coefficient value

r = .47, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis that both variables are independent.

Therefore it is concluded with confidence of more than 95 percent that observed positive

correlation between CT and TM is not due to random effects and both variables are

interdependent. The analysis thus sufficiently confirms that the emergence of terrorism

driven state of conflict is attributed to the state policies of uncontrolled social engineering

which ruined the socioeconomic and politico-administrative systems of the North

Waziristan agency. The analysis further indicates that TM has also a significant and

positive correlation, p < .05 with PG and CS. The results confirm the role of bad

governance as well as the non-availability of basic civic facilities in the emergence of

terrorism.

6.2.1.2 PG - CT Correlation

The correlation results reflect that the variables PG and CT bear significant and

moderate positive correlation. The value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient as measured

through analysis, r = .38, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis which states both the

variables are independent. It is therefore deduced with more than 95 percent confidence

level that the accessed positive correlation between variables PG and CT is not due to

random effects and both are interdependent. The effects of poor governance including the

150

flawed polices of ignoring the socioeconomic development in the agency also contributed

to the state of conflict quite significantly. The analysis further indicates that there is also a

significant and positive correlation, p < .05 between variables PG viz-a-viz TM and CS.

6.2.1.3 CS - CT Correlation

The Pearson correlation analysis indicates that there is a significant, p < .05 and

moderately negative correlation, r = 0.41 between variables CS and CT. The measured

significant value of Pearson‘s coefficient rejects the null hypothesis that both the variables

are independent. The analysis therefore confirms with more than 95 percent confidence

level that negative correlation existing between variables CS and CT is not due to random

effect and both variables are interdependent. The analysis further confirms that the

absence of requisite civic facilities in the area have also multiplied the intensity of

terrorism based conflict. The analysis further indicates that there is a significant but

negative correlation, p < .05 between variables CS viz-a-viz TM and PG.


The values of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient measured for rehabilitation strategy

with RF as dependent variable and ER, SR and GR as independent variables are shown in

table 39 given below.

Table 39:

Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient; Rehabilitation Strategy

RF ER SR GR

RF Pearson Correlation 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

N 503

SR Pearson Correlation .505**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 503 503

ER Pearson Correlation .508**

.430**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000

N 503 503 503

151

GR Pearson Correlation .451**

.324**

.361**

1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000

N 503 503 503 503

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).


The highest value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient for rehabilitation strategy

has been measured as r = .508 between ER and RF whereas the minimum measured value

of Pearson‘s coefficient has been found as r = .451 between GR and RF. Following

conclusions can be drawn from results of the correlation analysis given in table above.

6.2.2.1 SR - RF Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis reflects that variables SR and RF have strongly

positive and significant correlation, p < .05. The measured value of correlation coefficient

r = .50, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis that both variables are independent.

Therefore it can be concluded with more than 95 percent confidence level that observed

positive correlation between SR and RF is not due to random effects and both variables are

interdependent. The analysis also signifies the fundamental role of economic development

in the overall context of post conflict rehabilitation. The analysis results further suggest

that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables SR viz-a-viz ER

and GR.

6.2.2.2 ER - RF Correlation

The correlation results indicate that variables ER and RF bear significant and

moderately positive correlation. The value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient as

measured through analysis, r = .50, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis which states

that both variables are independent. It is therefore deduced with more than 95 percent

confidence level that the accessed positive correlation between variables ER and RF is not

due to random effects and both are interdependent. The results highlight the need for

necessary social development measures especially initiation of de-radicalization process

and social rehabilitation for successful post conflict rehabilitation strategy. The analysis

further indicates that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables

ER viz-a-viz SR and GR.

152

6.2.2.3 GR - RF Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis indicates that there is a significant, p < .05 and

strongly positive correlation, r = .45 between variables GR and RF. The measured

significant value of Pearson‘s coefficient rejects the null hypothesis that both the variables

are independent. Therefore the analysis confirms with more than 95 percent confidence

level that positive correlation existing between variables GR and RF is not due to random

effects and both variables are interdependent. The statistical analysis highlights the

significant role of governance reforms during the process of rehabilitation as the existing

system of governance is not only outdated but has almost collapsed due to the state of

militancy. Therefore to achieve long term objectives of successful post conflict

rehabilitation, the system of governance needs structural reforms. The analysis further

indicates that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables GR

viz-a-viz SR and ER.

6.3 Hypotheses Testing


6.3.1.1 Alternative Hypotheses

H1; There is a significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.

H2; There is a significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic

services.

H3; There is a significant relationship between conflict and poor

governance.

6.3.1.2 Null Hypotheses

H01; There is no significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.

H02; There is no significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic

services.

H03; There is no significant relationship between conflict and poor

governance.

6.3.1.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion

Model Summary; Regression model summary is given in table 40 below.

153

Table 40:

Regression Model Summary; Causes of Conflict

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

1 .567a .321 .317 .73034

a. Predictors: (Constant), CS, TM, PG

ANOVA Model; ANOVA model results are given in table 41 below.

Table 41:

ANOVA Model; Causes of Conflict

ANOVAa

Model Sum of

Squares

df Mean

Square

F Sig.

1 Regression 126.043 3 42.014 78.768 .000b

Residual 266.162 499 .533

Total 392.204 502

a. Dependent Variable: CT

b. Predictors: (Constant), CS, TM, PG

Regression Coefficients; Regression coefficients are given in table 42 below.

Table 42:

Regression Coefficients; Causes of Conflict

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) .397 .112 3.542 .000

154

TM .356 .042 .341 8.542 .000

PG .175 .036 .198 4.811 .000

CS .224 .045 .207 4.920 .000

a. Dependent Variable: CT

The regression model given at table 40 above shows that measured value of R2 is

0.321 which indicates that three independent variables (TM, PG, CS) explain 32.1 percent

of the variance in dependent variable (CT). The value of ‗F‘ statistic 78.768 as shown in

table 41 above indicates the overall significant (p = 0) of model.

The un-standardized β value 0.356 for TM as given in table 42 above indicates that

for every 100 points change in the value of TM (independent variable), the corresponding

change in CT (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 32.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H1 while rejecting the H01, meaning thereby that

terrorism has significant relationship with conflict in the agency under study.

Moreover un-standardized β value 0.175 for PG as given in the table 42 above

explains that for every 100 points change in the value of PG (independent variable), the

corresponding change in CT (dependent variable) is also significantly positive (p = 0) by

about 32.1 points. This confirms the acceptance of H2 while rejecting H02 thus indicating

that poor governance bears significant relationship with conflict in North Waziristan.

The un-standardized β value 0.224 for CS as given in table 42 above indicates that

for every 100 points change in the value of CS (independent variable), the corresponding

change in CT (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 32.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H3 while rejecting H03, thereby confirming the

presence of significant relationship between lack of civic services and conflict in the

agency under investigation.


6.3.2.1 Alternative Hypotheses

H4; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and

social restoration.


economic recovery.

155


governance reforms.

6.3.2.2 Null Hypotheses

H04; There is no significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and

social restoration.


economic recovery.


governance reforms.

6.3.2.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion

Model Summary; Regression model summary is given in Table 43 below.

Table 43:

Regression Model Summary; Rehabilitation Strategy

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate

1 .641a .411 .408 .69997

a. Predictors: (Constant), GR, SR, ER

ANOVA Model; ANOVA model results are given in table 44 below.

Table 44:

ANOVA Model; Rehabilitation Strategy

ANOVAa

Model Sum of

Squares

df Mean

Square

F Sig.

1 Regressi

on

170.648 3 56.883 116.09

8

.000b

Residual 244.487 499 .490

156

Total 415.135 502

a. Dependent Variable: RF

b. Predictors: (Constant), GR, SR, ER

Regression Coefficients; Regression coefficients are given in table 45 below.

Table 45:

Regression Coefficients; Rehabilitation Strategy

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig.

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) .366 .100 3.643 .000

SR .335 .043 .301 7.738 .000

ER .333 .045 .289 7.326 .000

GR .252 .038 .250 6.638 .000

a. Dependent Variable: RF

The regression model given at table 43 above shows that the measured value of R2

is 0.411, which indicates that three independent variables (SR, ER, GR) explain 41.1

percent of the variance in dependent variable (RF). The value of ‗F‘ statistic 116.09 as

shown in table 44 above reflects that the overall model is significant (p = 0).

The un-standardized β value 0.335 for SR as given in table 45 above indicates that

for every 100 points change in the value of SR (independent variable), the corresponding

change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 41.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H4 while rejecting H04 meaning thereby confirming

that social restoration has significant relationship with rehabilitation framework in post

conflict environments of the agency under study.

The un-standardized standardized β value 0.333 for ER as given in the table 45

above explains that for every 100 points change in the value of ER (independent variable),

the corresponding change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by

about 41.1 points. This confirms the acceptance of H5 while rejecting the H05 thus

157

indicating that economic recovery bears significant relationship with rehabilitation

framework for post conflict development of the North Waziristan agency.

The un-standardized β value 0.252 for GR as given in table 45 above indicates that

for every 100 points change in the value of GR (independent variable), the corresponding

change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 41.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H6 while rejecting H06 thereby confirming the

existing of significant relationship between governance reforms and rehabilitation

framework in the post conflict settings of North Waziristan.

6.3.3 Hypotheses Test

Table 46:

Hypotheses Summary

RQs ROs Hypothesis Accepted Rejected

RQ1 RO1 H1 Yes --

RQ2 RO2 H2 Yes -

RQ3 RO3 H3 Yes -

RQ4 RO4 H4 Yes -

RQ5 RO5 H5 Yes -

RQ6 RO6 H6 Yes -


6.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter covers three important dimensions of the research firstly the

frequency analysis of different factors identified through factor analysis, secondly,

Pearson‘s correlation analysis of different factors and thirdly, hypotheses testing. The first

section gives the frequency distribution for first research dimension of causes of conflict

with conflict as dependent variable and terrorism, lack of civic services and poor

governance as independent variables. This section also gives the frequency distribution for

second research dimension of rehabilitation strategy with rehabilitation framework as

dependent and economic recovery, social restoration and governance reforms as

independent variables.

158

The second section of this chapter gives the results from Pearson‘s correlation

analysis to observe any suspected co-linearity problems. However the results have rejected

the presence of any co-linearity issue in the collected data thereby verifying its suitability

for further analysis. Third section of this chapter gives the results of hypotheses tested for

both dimensions of research to include the causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy.

The results of regression analysis have rejected the null hypotheses thereby confirming the

significant impact of independent variables on dependent variables; conflict and

rehabilitation framework, for both research dimensions.

159

CHAPTER 7

REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR

NORTH WAZIRISTAN

160

REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR

NORTH WAZIRISTAN

The investigation of both research dimensions to include causes of conflict and

rehabilitation strategy has provided an insight to the quagmire experienced by local

population during recent years. The conflict generation has been studied in the context of

social engineering theory because the local community has undergone various levels of

social engineering at the hands of internal and external actors. During recent past, these

actors have been manipulating the local society to promote their strategic objectives in the

region. The study of conflict through the lens of social engineering theory has enabled the

researcher to develop better understanding of the conflict for suggesting suitable

rehabilitation strategy based on system‘s thinking approach.

This chapter recommends appropriate policy options for post conflict rehabilitation

of the terrorism ridden North Waziristan. The research commenced with derivation of

research statements from literature review followed by respondents‘ feedback on those

statements. Subsequently the collected data was analyzed through application of SPSS

based research methods for in-depth analysis of popular perception to study the causes of

conflict and intended rehabilitation strategy. The result of data analysis has identified

terrorism as the root cause of conflict along with poor governance and lack of civic

facilities as multipliers. The research after explaining the conflict cycle has measured

popular dimensions of proposed rehabilitation strategy. The analysis of observed

components to include the social restoration, governance reforms and the economic

recovery have consequently offered a comprehensive rehabilitation framework with

rehabilitation content and management mechanism. The execution of suggested

framework has also been explained during the discussions to make the rehabilitation

strategy a whole encompassing.

The framework also explains the necessity of immediate humanitarian assistance

and establishment of functional resettlement process starting evolution from conflict to

socioeconomic development. The framework further signifies the need of humanitarian

and social re-integration assistance, medium to long term investment in human and

physical capital, long term socioeconomic development policy and the institutional

reforms to stimulate the process of economic rebound for sustained economic growth and

poverty reduction.

161

7.1 Causes of Conflict

North Waziristan has remained under international geopolitical prism during the

cold war when global powers competed to extend their sphere of influence in this region.

The radicalization policies initiated during the years of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan

in early 1980s created Taliban sanctuaries in the area under study. The subsequent

establishment of madrassas funded by United States and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

significantly transformed sociocultural structure of the agency (Haq, Khan, and Nuri,

2005). The restructured social environment changed the local power matrix by putting

politico-religious leadership; local mullah in driving seat to control tribal youth. The

emergence of culture of militancy cannot only be attributed to geostrategic environments

of post-communist invasion of Afghanistan. Instead poverty and illiteracy, poor

socioeconomic conditions and weak system of governance breaded terrorism with

inhabitants living under local code in ‗lawless land of endless feuds and bloodshed where

poverty, socioeconomic backwardness and infant mortality percentage are worst in the

world (Johnson, 2007). The conditions got further accentuated with the application of

various social engineering techniques to meet different foreign policy objectives.

However after a period of relative calmness following withdrawal of communist

forces from Afghanistan, the agency again emerged at international geostrategic matrix

when United States led military operation toppled the Taliban government in neighbouring

Afghanistan. This new development resulted in mass infiltration of Afghan Talibans and

their foreign supporters into the North Waziristan and adjoining tribal areas of Pakistan.

Taliban militants took sanctuary in the agency for secure command and control, fund

raising, recruiting and training for launching operations against collation forces (Johnson,

2007). The events unfolded during the succeeding years pushed the agency into terrorism

born state of conflict. The area turned into a crime hell from where the terrorists carried

out their atrocious activities not only within the agency boundaries but across the country

thereby challenging the writ of the state and destroying public sector infrastructure

(Johnson, 2007).

162

The research in above historical context has explored the possible causes of

conflict experienced in the agency during recent years. The analysis of collected data has

confirmed that the absence of basic civic facilities and outdated system of governance of

the agency further exacerbated the terrorism induced conflict. Although writ of the state

has been re-established through series of successful security operations especially Zarb-e-

Azb but no substantial rehabilitation work has yet been initiated. The causes and cycle of

conflict as viewed by the locals that have been shared through respondent‘s feedback are

given in figures 10 and 11 below.

Figure 10:

Model; Causes of conflict

Source; Author‘s Compilation

co

co

co

co

co co

CS1

CS2

CS3

CS4

CS5

PG2

PG1

PG3

PG4

1

PG5

TM2

TM1

TM3 TM41

CT1

TM5

CT2

CT3 CT4

CT5

CT6

Lack of Civic

Services (CS)

Poor Governance (PG) Terrorism (TM)

Conflict

(CT)

Causes of conflict

163

Figure 11:

Conflict Cycle


The model given in figure 8 above shows the locals‘ perception of terrorism led

conflict that lasted in the agency for over one decade. The causes of conflict model signify

the lead as well as contributory roles of terrorism, poor governance and lack of basic civic

facilities. The central component of the model explains direct causes of conflict to include

settlement of foreign fighters during the Afghan jihad of 1979-1991 and their exploitation

of local cultural values especially Hospitality and Panah followed by Pakistan‘s support to

NATO operations in Afghanistan. The component also includes the negative impacts of

the conflict like damaged local socioeconomic conditions, the targeting of tribal institution

of Jirga and the economic setbacks suffered by locals during the phase of counter

terrorism operation. The component of terrorism that constitutes the direct cause of

ongoing conflict explains the impact of country‘s involvement in the Afghan wars as well

as the establishment of foreign funded madrassas during Afghan jihad (1979-1991). The

component also confirms the popular perception about the role of peace agreements

reached with terrorists, lack of formal education and the absence of employment

opportunities in exacerbating the conflict which ruined the sociocultural, economic and

political infrastructure of the agency.

Conflict Cycle

Terrorism Conflict Direct Cause

Multiplier

Multiplier

Poor

Governance

Lack of Civic

Services

164

The respondents consider the third component of poor governance as conflict

multiplier which instead of providing conflict controlling mechanism, conveniently

dissipated in the face of terrorism thus allowing the conflict acceleration. This component

explains the role of outdated traditional politico-administrative system of the agency, the

state of continuous neglect by successive governments, the absence of concerted

development efforts and above all the non-existent border control mechanism to check

illegal cross border movements from Afghanistan in providing the appetite essential for

sustenance of terrorism led conflict. The factor also highlights the destruction of existing

politico-administrative system of the agency during the conflict. The fourth factor gives

feedback on contributory role played by lack of civic services in exacerbating the conflict.

The factor shows that lack of fundamental civic facilities like water and sanitation

schemes, advanced education and health facilities as well as the absence of any technical

skill development center nourished conflict in the agency. The component also signifies

the state negligence in promoting development of private sector thus adding to the

unemployment and leaving youth susceptible to terrorist‘s exploitations.

The conflict cycle given at figure 9 amply reveals the popular views regarding

origin of conflict that eventually demolished traditional social, economic and political

structure of the area. The causes and the cycle of conflict including local‘s preferences for

rehabilitation activities will provide guidelines for a popular strategy suiting long term

development in peculiar post conflict tribal environments. The rehabilitation framework

along with suggested policy options has been discussed in the next section of this chapter.

7.2 Contemporary Rehabilitation Models

In this study the phenomenon of rehabilitation does not imply to ‗criminal justice‘

but in general refers to regenerate psychosocial and economic wellbeing out of the ruins of

past. In the perspective of North Waziristan, the rehabilitation means restoring economic

and social normalcy with improved system of governance by restructuring the state

institutions ruined by ten years of terrorism led conflict. The peace process is a continuous

phenomenon aimed at addressing the legacy of conflict thereby bringing the conditions to

normal or improved stage (Pyakuryal, Upreiti, and Sharma, 2008). However some scholars

argue that smooth transition is required for successful post conflict rehabilitation. This can

be made possible only by dismantling the old social, cultural, economic and political

barriers and making fresh commitments through an appropriate course of action

165

(Bloomfield, Huysne, and Barnes, 2003). It is almost impossible to garner the long term

fruits of rehabilitation without focusing on the context of pre and post conflict problems as

necessitated by the system‘s thinking approach. The phases of rehabilitation are extremely

important as the success largely depends on the effectiveness of the initiative and strategy

pursued during the process. The availability of post conflict rehabilitation models is not

only limited but also vary due to their applicability in different socio-demographic

conditions and the nature of conflict. In other words the rehabilitation strategy devoid of

suitable framework and developed without adhering to the principle of system‘s approach

is not geared up to fully address the complex issues of post conflict environments.

The rehabilitation process rarely means the factual replication of pre-conflict

conditions because neither desirability nor practicability indicates for the same. This is

true as far as the traditionalist tribal societies like North Waziristan are concerned. The

rehabilitation covers a wide range of aspects including social and physical infrastructures,

commercial systems, and elements of public delivery services especially the security

component often need restructuring to deal with post conflict exigencies. Furthermore the

concept of post conflict rehabilitation also necessitates the rebuilding of socioeconomic

environments including strengthening of the civil administration or governance. One of

the important components in rehabilitation planning includes the promotion of public

involvement and self-sustaining and capacity enhancing measures for local communities

and institutions. There can be two plausible forms of rehabilitation paradigms; firstly, the

process being controlled by the bureaucrats and secondly, the people‘s driven approach

which is comparatively less resource as well as time consuming process. The

implementation of a key integrative component of local - public participation is the best

cosmetic measure; as in Bosnia-Herzegovina, geared to social engineering goals such as

reintegrating ethnic communities. This indeed is not a top-down perspective but the locals

including TDPs and political administration personnel also express the similar views.

Post conflict rehabilitation warrants an appropriate management process which aims

at dealing with the past while envisioning bright future by inducing hope and aspiration

(Tutu, 1999). This can be achieved by implementing the agreements reached, aptly

handling of the conflict memories and guarantying transitional justice and security,

extending peace dividend and facilitation for disarmament, demobilizing and reintegration

of former terrorists, and reforming the security apparatus and above all undertaking the

measures for long term rehabilitation (Upreti, 2008). The rehabilitation process can

166

commence even during the phase when the security situation is yet acutely challenging.

The threats to survival may even multiply during the settling down phase of the conflict

primarily due to restored freedom of movement and economic activity (UNESCO, 2003).

The insecurities caused by limited violence which continues during the initial phases of

post conflict rehabilitation do not fully disappear.

7.2.1 Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

The insurgents more often than not target the development infrastructures to obstruct

the course of economic growth. The communities recovering from long drawn conflicts or

insurgencies require revival of development process. Therefore the rehabilitation program

with post conflict reconstruction and development as key factors is considered as

elemental pillar of stability (Upreiti, 2009). The development and violent conflict are

inversely related to each other because development failures are likely to create social

inequality and discrimination ultimately breading the conflict. The successful

rehabilitation and restoration program pursued by the Sri Lankan government after putting

off the deadly conflict in Jafna and adjoining areas can be considered in point. The

adopted rehabilitation program was indigenized and envisioned by the Task Force

constituted under the orders of President ‗Mahinda Rajapaksa‘ during May 2009 well

before the elimination of the conflict. The Presidential Task Force adopted following

policy guidelines for three pronged rehabilitation strategy ‗Uthuru Vasanthaya‘

(Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

Formulation of Master Plan - ―Uthuru Vasanthaya‖ to facilitate resettlement,

development and reconstruction of the northern province

Launching of 180 x Day Accelerated Program to implement rapid resettlement

program and the process of early recovery.

The ‗Uthuru Vasanthaya‘ program comprised of following three pronged

rehabilitation strateg as given in figure 12 below.

Providing relief and humanitarian assistance to the resettled people and restoration

of basic infrastructure in the cleared area.

Early recovery process to support returnees to recommence their economic

activities

Development of much needed major infrastructure and revival of northern region

for sustainability and stability.

167

Figure 12:

Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

Source; Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, Development and Security, 2009

(Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text)

7.2.1.1 Humanitarian Assistance Phase

The de-radicalization program based on Singapore model comprising ‗Six‘ modes

was adopted by the Sri Lankan government. The indigenized rehabilitation strategy was

named as ‗Six Plus‘ model by the program developing body. The rehabilitation idea

espoused by then Sri Lankan government instituted framework to engage the recipients in

following six rehabilitation and community development modes.

Educational rehabilitation

Vocational rehabilitation

Spiritual and religious rehabilitation

Recreational rehabilitation

Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

Humanitarian

Assistance Socio-economic

development

Welfare Centers

De-radicalization

(Six Plus Mode)

Quality of Life

Growth Initiatives

Connectivity

Presidential

Task Force

Resettlement

Phase

Resettlement Policy

Early Recovery

Monitoring

Uthuru

Vasanthaya

Monitoring Monitoring

Mechanism

Monitoring

Need

Assessment Reconstruction

/ Rehabilitation

Monitoring

Monitoring Rehabilitation

Policy

168

Psychosocial and Creative therapies

Social, Cultural and Family Rehabilitation

Plus 1; Community Rehabilitation

7.2.1.2 Resettlement Phase

The main objectives of 180x Days Program was aimed at to identify and plan

different resettlement phases. A damage assessment team was appointed to assess the

extent of damage to ascertain the financial needs. Since the civil administration was

undergoing the re-establishment phase therefore the Sri Lankan armed forces being on

ground steered and assisted the resettlement process. The policy guidelines envisaged for

resettlement phase included following (Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

Voluntary resettlement process

Settlement of IDPs in their original places of habitation

Settlement should be dignified and safe

Sri Lankan Army to be a partner in resettlement

Prior to resettlement IDPs be facilitated for ―go and see visits‖

Provision of housing or assistance of shelter and livelihood development

7.2.1.3 Early Recovery

This phase of humanitarian assistance was aimed at early recovery by extending

necessary assistance to initiate the economic cycle. The activities supporting regeneration

of economic operations were given special focus by stepping up government interventions

to invigorate the livelihood of returnees. The principle of providing grant in cash or kind

was adopted to help the resettled families in their engagement of pre displacement

economic activities. A program targeting the poorest of poor was launched to give cash for

work to rehabilitate the rural infrastructure while creating employment opportunities for

poor. The resettlement package given to each returning family included following cash

and other items (Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

Six months of dry rations

Initial grant of Rs. 5,000 as part of total Shelter Grant of Rs. 25,000

Land preparation cost of Rs. 4,000 per acre

Non Food Relief Items (NFRI), Core Kits to include mosquito nets, jerry cans,

kitchen sets, towels, plastic mats, bed sheets, plastic basins and buckets

169

Additional NFRI on need basis including clothing, coconut scrapers, slippers, food

containers, tarpaulin kits; plastic sheets (4m.x5m.), nylon ropes

Hygiene packs as per UNICEF standards

Return tool kits including crow bar, axe, rake, heavy carpenter hammer, shovel,

hurricane lamp and jungle knife

Provision of seed paddy at the rate of two bushels per acre per family for two acres

Roofing sheets at the rate of 12x sheets per family

Cement bags at the rate of 8x bags per family

7.2.1.4 Socioeconomic Development Phase

Successful completion of resettlement and early recovery phases put the lives of resettled

families on the track of normalcy. Subsequently numerous development projects in

following social and economic fields were initiated by securing substantial foreign loans.

Following projects were completed during this phase.

Improving Quality of Life

Health Sector Development in northern province after May 2009

Provision of shelter

Revival of education

Restoration of water and sanitation

Rehabilitation of electricity network

Path to spiritual development

Restoration of administration

Growth Initiatives

Revival of the fisheries sector

Rehabilitation of the livestock sector

Contribution of the banking sector and the non-banking sector institutions

Connectivity

Rehabilitation of airport, road and railway networks

Rehabilitation of KKS harbour

Revival of transmission tower

7.2.2 FATA Rehabilitation Model

The existing rehabilitation model being practiced in FATA has been conceived and

implemented within the bounds of FATA development Plan 2007-15. Although

170

conventional structure of FDA is not designed to handle complex issues of post conflict

settings yet the certain important rehabilitation measures are being undertaken to address

post conflict issues. The rehabilitation strategy presently functioning in FATA is named as

FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy (FSRRS). Main features of the

FATA rehabilitation strategy is discussed in following paragraphs.

7.2.2.1 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU)

The rehabilitation process commenced with the establishment of Rehabilitation and

Reconstruction Unit (RRU) under the FATA Secretariat notification dated 30th

October

2014; scanned copy of the letter is placed at annexure P. The RRU has been tasked to

manage the rehabilitation process including monitoring and implementing the return of

displaced families and their resettlement plans.

7.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Model

The government launched FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy

(FSRRS) on 7th

April 2015 for return of TDPs to their respective areas. The adopted

strategy is based on the FATA Sustainable Development Plan 2007-2015 and reforms

proposed by FATA Reforms Committee (FRC) established to draw roadmap for

constitutional, legal and institutional reforms. The strategy has following pillars giving

short, medium and long term development objectives (Annual Report RRU, 2015-2016).

Figure13:

Strategic Pillars FATA Reconstruction Model

Source; Annual Report 2015-2016, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU);

Building Lives in FATA (Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text)

The model has following five fundamental phases (5 x R‘s) of FATA Sustainable

Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Strategy (Unit, 2015).

Reh

abil

itat

ing p

hysi

cal

infr

astr

uct

ure

Str

ength

enin

g L

aw

and o

rder

Expan

din

g g

over

nm

ent

serv

ice

del

iver

y

Rea

ctiv

atin

g a

nd

stre

ngth

enin

g e

conom

y

Str

ength

enin

g s

oci

al

cohes

ion a

nd p

eace

buil

din

g

Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 5 Pillar 4

171

Return of the displaced population

Rehabilitation and reconstruction

Immediate rehabilitation including cash grants

Permanent reconstruction

Citizen losses compensation program

Roadmap for medium to long term socioeconomic development

Reforms: constitutional, legal, structural and institutional

Return from military to civilian control

Figure14:

FATA Secretariat Rehabilitation Model

Source: Annual Report 2015-2016, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU);

Building Lives in FATA (Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text)

7.3 Proposed Rehabilitation Strategy

The conflict patterns surfaced during late 20th

century have suggested more

nuanced conflict transformation models. These models study the conflicts emerging due to

social engineering leading to violent or non-violent applications and introducing further

social change where hitherto deprived individuals articulate their interests to challenge the

Reforms

(Constitutional, Legal,

Institutional)

FATA Model

Return of

TDPs

Medium to Long

Term Planning

RRU

(FSRRS)

Rehabilitation

& Reconstruction

FATA

Secretariat

Socio-

economic

Development

Transfer; Military to

Civil Control

172

existing power structure. The conflicts subsequently require yet another round of social

engineering to reverse the process of induced negative change. This cycle of corrective

social change entails a comprehensive strategy to affect wide spectrum of conflict

components including humanitarian, social, administrative, governance, and economic

dimensions. However fragile environments of post conflict societies where rehabilitation

and reconstruction priorities are extremely difficult to define create numerous

socioeconomic challenges. The application of systems thinking model offers effective

solutions to such complexities by suggesting proportionate application of corrective

engineering strategies. The system‘s approach states that uni-dimensional rehabilitation

strategy will not produce the desired positive social change and instead entails the

conception of a comprehensive framework to simultaneously address socioeconomic and

politico-administrative causes of the conflict.

The existing socioeconomic development and regulatory framework in the ambit of

FATA secretariat as well as the existing institutional arrangements are incompatible with

the demands of post conflict exigencies. It is therefore essential to introduce fundamental

restructuring of existing framework to meet the popular expectations of economic

recovery, social restoration and governance reforms to heal the wounds of conflict for the

objective of ‗human security‘. The human security, as defined in the United Nations

Report, is the ―safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease and repression and

protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily lives‖ (Speth,

1994). The long term objectives of rehabilitation will remain a far cry until vital elements

of economic recovery and requisite governance reforms have been instituted rather than

confining the concept to social re-integration of handful of former terrorists or vice versa.

The intended framework based on discourse and measured perception index of the

sampled community covers socioeconomic dimensions relating to the post conflict

environments. The guiding principles for rehabilitation framework should sufficiently

bridge social void between the horizontal and vertical inequalities. The framework should

also provide a mechanism for sustainable economic development, socially equitable

recovery process while institutionalizing the required politico-administrative reforms. The

framework should also assist to re-evaluate the suitability of existing policies and

regulatory arrangements for necessary corrections accordingly.

173

7.3.1 Rehabilitation Dimensions

In the post conflict environments, perceptive rehabilitation process is vital to heal

the social wounds to prevent future conflicts. This requires a whole encompassing

approach with bold and innovative initiatives. The solutions to the complex

socioeconomic challenges of post conflict rehabilitation and sustained development are

required to be searched through reflections and open dialogue. This process of dialogue

and emanating actions should be taken into account the flashpoints of conflict including

lack of civic facilities, poverty, poor governance, and the absence of economic

opportunities. The processes of perception measurements and the participatory dialogue

are not only essential to find most appropriate solutions to the problems but also to

identify fundamental pillars of post conflict rehabilitation framework. These pillars

include the importance of economic recovery by exploring local potentials, social

restoration including de-radicalization and governance reforms by replacing FCR based

governance system. Figure 15 gives mutual relationship among discussed dimensions.

Figure15:

Rehabilitation Framework; Popular Dimensions


c

c

c

c

c c

c

RF5

RF6

3

RF7

RF1

RF2

RF3

RF4

Economic Recovery (ER)

SR1

SR2 SR5

SR6

SR3 SR4

Popular Dimensions

ER1

ER2

ER3 ER4

ER5

ER6

GR3

GR1

GR2

GR4

GR5

Social Restoration (SR) Governance Reforms (GR)

Rehabilitation

Framework (RF)

174

The core component of popular dimensions model explains the guiding principles

of rehabilitation framework. The key elements highlight the importance of local

consultations in defining the rehabilitation projects in post conflict settings. The core

component also signifies the social re-integration of former terrorists through

comprehensive de-radicalization process. The aspects of socioeconomic revival and

politico-administrative reforms along with the need of developing communication

infrastructure across the agency have also been identified vital to define the rehabilitation

framework. The core component also signifies the role of trade and business friendly

policies and need to explore the demographic potentials of the agency. These guiding

principles have subsequently assisted in identifying the relationship of other contributory

dimensions measured during the course of analysis. The economic recovery dimension is

built on seven relevant items indicating the exploration and development of local mining

industry, revival of local agricultural and dairy sectors and the establishment of public as

well as private sector industries to generate economic activities. The rehabilitation

component also measures the impact of exploring the agency water potentials needed to

enhance cultivable lands essential for local sustenance as well as extending of loan facility

for immediate economic recovery of the resettled families.

The factor of social restoration has been assessed through a set of six relevant

questions to incorporate the local feelings. The measured process of social restoration

highlights the need of formal de-radicalization of former terrorists to achieve the long term

objectives of rehabilitation. The component further highlights the need of madrassa

reforms to check the negative social engineering of local youth for different motives. The

role of revived tribal institution of Jirga and provision of basic civic services including

recreational (sports) facilities has also been identified important during post conflict social

restoration. The factor further indicates the need of formal education of the local youth for

effective social restoration. The third dimension of post conflict rehabilitation strategy

addresses the need for governance reforms to achieve rehabilitation goals. The component

based on five relevant items explores and recommends the replacement of FCR base

colonial politico-administrative system. The measured dimension also reflects the desire of

local population for local government system and the right of access to country‘s judicial

system. The factor of governance reforms also highlights the importance of restructured

law and order apparatus along with effective border control and monitoring mechanism to

achieve the desired objectives of rehabilitation.

175

7.3.2 Rehabilitation Framework

Making the post conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction process a success, there

is need of insightful planning, political resolve, and involvement of national and

international developing agencies. It is significantly important to comprehend the post

conflict reconstruction activities in their entirety because piece meal rehabilitation may

generate yet another conflict. The challenges confronted in the aftermath of conflict

situations mainly include the restoration of peace, the resettlement of temporary displaced

persons (TDPs), the restoration of social services and institutions and the revival of

economy. In the post conflict environments, the capacities of agency apparatus like

politico-administrative institutions and the line departments to include education, health,

agriculture, communication infrastructure, and the law enforcement are generally weak

therefore require rebuilding. Despite these multidimensional challenges, the government is

mostly pre-occupied with the notion to consolidate power through further military means.

Nevertheless the need for institutionalizing the effective rehabilitation mechanism with

special focus on humanitarian assistance, social reintegration, and economic revival are

the pre-requisite for post conflict reconstruction.

The approach to post conflict rehabilitation should be comprehensive in the sense

that actions for rehabilitation and reconstruction are essentially required in relief and

humanitarian assistance, reintegration, social, economic and political arenas. The actions

in one area need to take account of the impact of these actions on the other processes as

well as on long term development prospects. A post conflict rehabilitation framework

developed through consultation and the local‘s perception measurements is an appropriate

instrument for prioritization and guidance. A comparative study of the Sri Lankan and

FATA Secretariat rehabilitation and reconstruction programs with the measured popular

perception of the sampled community has evolved a whole encompassing rehabilitation

framework. The framework is based on two pronged strategy namely the rehabilitation

management and rehabilitation content.

7.3.2.1 Rehabilitation Management

The process of rehabilitation management is vital for successful execution of

rehabilitation strategy. The suggested rehabilitation management strategy will comprise of

following two stages; namely the introduction of interim laws and provisions for

176

implementation of extremely sensitive rehabilitation initiatives and the establishment of

policy framing and monitoring body.

Interim laws and provisions for rehabilitation

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU)

The existing monitoring mechanism comprising Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Unit (RRU) apart from serving as monitoring mechanism, will be required to undertake

following responsibilities to ensure smooth and successful execution of post conflict

rehabilitation operations.

Formulation of rehabilitation and reconstruction policy

Damage assessment to ascertain financial requirements

Management and monitoring of rehabilitation and reconstruction process

Consultation with the local tribal elders for defining the rehabilitation projects

Coordination with donor agencies including national and international actors

Coordinating and monitoring de-radicalization and social re-integration activities

Monitoring the returning of TDPs through Return Task Force (RTF)

Monitoring Citizen Loss Compensation Program (flow chart placed at annexure R)

7.3.2.2 Rehabilitation Content

The suggested framework for rehabilitation content will target three distinctive

dimensions which have been identified during the perception measurement process. The

proposed rehabilitation content will cover following important dimensions for post

conflict planning.

Social Restoration

De-radicalization programs

Immediate humanitarian assistance

Return and resettlement of displaced families

Social re-integration of former terrorists

Community support including livelihood, health, education, water and

sanitation

Governance Reforms

Revival of agency Institutions

Restructuring the civil security apparatus

177

Instituting madrassa reforms

Control transfer from military to civil

Installing border control mechanism

Establishment of local governments

Access to country‘s judicial system

Economic Recovery

Rehabilitation of physical infrastructure including roads, bridges and electricity

Exploration of agency potentials to include minerals, water, agriculture, and

livestock

Development of mineral related infrastructure including training center and

trading yard

Development of industrial infrastructure both in public and private sector

7.3.2.3 Rehabilitation Principles

The understanding of rehabilitation content is important for effective application of

the proposed rehabilitation framework. The strategy for implementation of proposed

framework has been envisaged to cover different post conflict scenarios. The suggested

guiding principles of rehabilitation framework are as under.

The establishment of De-radicalization centers to organize necessary de-

radicalization training for subsequent social re-integration of former terrorists

Resettlement process including the return of TDPs should be planned and executed

under effective monitoring and regulating mechanism.

Revival of politico-administrative institutions should be ensured to effectively

control the complex social environments in post conflict scenario.

Immediate and essential humanitarian assistance must be ensured before returning

of the TDPs and during the early stages of resettlement to meet the basic needs

during transition.

Essential socioeconomic assistance must be extended during the restoration phases

for improving the quality of life and growth initiatives essential for successful

early recovery process.

Restoration of sociocultural institutions especially revival of Jirga; a pre requisite

for participatory rehabilitation in North Waziristan must be ensured at priority.

178

Revival and restoration of social facilities including health, education, water and

sanitation and other livelihood support systems to stimulate the process of early

social recovery.

Restoration of physical infrastructures including buildings, roads, bridges,

electricity and other means of connectivity as communication infrastructure plays

key role in economic recovery during the intermediate phase of rehabilitation.

Restructuring and reforming of administrative institutions for effective policing in

the fragile post conflict environments.

Political reformation by introducing the system of local governments to enhance

people‘s participation in the agency political system.

Reconstruction of different socioeconomic infrastructures including markets and

both public and private sector industries.

Formulation of policies to mainstream the conflict ridden agency through long

term socioeconomic development plans.

7.3.2.4 Rehabilitation Framework

The North Waziristan is among one of the least developed areas of country. The

terrorism led conflict created politico-administrative turmoil in the agency thus worsening

the already poor socioeconomic conditions. The state decision to destroy the terrorists‘

hideouts from North Waziristan was executed through successful military operation ‗Zarb-

e-Azb‘. However the decision of military operation was followed by mass displacement of

the locals thus introduced yet another human dimension to the conflict. After restoring

normalcy in the agency, there is need for smooth resettlement and rehabilitation of the

displaced families. The resettlement of almost entire population of the North Waziristan is

an uphill task which requires insightful planning, political will, extensive coordination and

the requisite logistic support along with necessary sustenance support to the returning

families. Also the execution of socioeconomic initiatives including rebuilding of houses,

restocking of the livestock, and cultivation of paddy crops will be of fundamental

importance in defining the rehabilitation strategy.

The revival of fragile post conflict economy needs perceptive planning

supplemented by an effective implementation mechanism to create conducive

environments to kick off the economic development. The rehabilitation phases including

resettlement, restoration and reconstruction need parallel planning and implementation

179

strategy including the returning of displaced families. The rehabilitation principles

discussed above comprehensively address the different post conflict dimensions and

therefore will serve as a guideline for proposed framework to meet the parameters of

rehabilitation content and peculiar sociocultural demands of North Waziristan. Figure 16

below graphically explains the proposed rehabilitation framework.

Figure 16:

Proposed Rehabilitation Framework


7.3.2.5 Framework Flow

Broad contours of the framework implementation flow as given in figure 8.6 above

are as under.

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) will carry out necessary ground

survey for rehabilitation policy formulation including damage assessment and

Resettlement

Phase

Restoration

Phase

FATA

Reforms

Committee

Monitoring

FSRRS

Strategy TDP

Camps

Proposed Framework

RRU (Policy

&

Monitoring)

FATA

Secretariat

Policy

Reforms SAFRON

De-

Radicalization

Phase

Reconstruction

Phase

Social

Development

Governance

Reforms

Transfer to

Civil Control

Rehabilitated

Agency

Institutional

Revival

Madrassa

Reforms

Economic

Development

Return Task

Force

180

coordination with the development agencies. The unit will also monitor the

rehabilitation flow during all phases including de-radicalization and instituting the

governance reforms.

Prior to the commencement of resettlement phase, the returning TDPs will be

given essential financial assistance ascertained through Citizen Loss Compensation

Program surveys. Before leaving the TDPs camp or de-radicalization centers,

complete record of displaced families including de-radicalized individuals will be

documented.

The process of returning of TDPs will be monitored by RRU with the help of

Returning Task Force. The returning TDPs will be given necessary humanitarian

assistance before moving back to their native areas. The humanitarian assistance

may be contributed by the government and different domestic or international

donor agencies.

After return and resettlement of TDPs the restoration phase will commence with

the objectives of revival of different socioeconomic facilities for early recovery.

The restoration of different administrative organs will accelerate the rehabilitation

process including the revival of law and order institutions to maintain peace and

stability. The process will also include instituting the appropriate border control

mechanism to check illegal cross border movements.

Prior to the launch of reconstruction phase the process of reforms will be initiated

under the supervision of RRU. These reforms will include necessary madrassa

reforms to check the negative tendencies of social exploitation of local youth by

extremist elements. The process of essential reforms and restructuring the law

enforcement agencies will be completed to enhance their effectiveness before

transfer of administrative control from armed forces to the civilian component.

The reconstruction will commence after necessary reforms with the objective of

steering the resettled community from humanitarian assistance into the phase of

self-sustenance. Reconstruction phase will also include different socioeconomic

projects to generate post conflict rehabilitation activities.

Parallel to the reconstruction process, governance reforms will be initiated to

replace the existing outdated FCR based system with ‗system of local

governments‘ as being practiced in other settled areas of the country. Apart from

restructuring the administrative institutions, the reforms will introduce community

181

and development friendly business and trade policies to accelerate the process of

local socioeconomic revolution.

The reformed policies and institutions will consequently lead to a socially and

economically developed society. The cycle commencing with the return of TDPs

will thus be completed by achieving the long term goals of rehabilitation.

7.3.2.6 Policy Measures

Suggested policy measures for implementation of proposed framework for post

conflict rehabilitation content may include following.

7.3.2.6.1 De-Radicalization Phase

The de-radicalization program based on the best practices successfully adopted in

Sri Lankan model and the rehabilitation centers functioning in different parts of FATA

will offer the best solution. The espoused idea engages the recipients in following

rehabilitation modes.

Educational Rehabilitation: This mode of rehabilitation will impart requisite

formal education to the beneficiaries within the de-radicalization centers. The adult

beneficiaries may be given informal or the supplementary education for literacy

and numeracy skills.

Vocational Rehabilitation: The vocational trainings keeping in view the interests

of beneficiaries and regional occupational prospects may be organized to develop

expertise in the fields of traditional crafts and businesses. The recipients may also

be given training in different courses including agriculture, motor mechanic,

garments, masonry and carpentry. These trainings will gradually develop the

confidence among beneficiaries to earn their livelihoods by using personal skills.

Corrective Religious Rehabilitation: Number of beneficiaries will be

requiring spiritual reconciliation with their acts of terrorism. They will be required

to undergo corrective religious trainings for correct religious perceptions and

ideologies. For this purpose special training lectures may be given by renowned

religious scholars. The religious rehabilitation during the de-radicalization phase

will provide inner reconciliation opportunity to the admitted beneficiaries.

Psychosocial and Creative Therapies: The psychosocial dimension of the

rehabilitation phase may include emotional intelligence training, counseling and

mentorship training during the de-radicalization phase. The emotional intelligence

182

training will help the beneficiaries to learn emotion regulation skills like managing

and expression of emotions. The counselor training and mentorship training will

reorient the beneficiaries‘ thought process keeping him away from violence and

extremism. The beneficiaries may also be imparted creative training including

poetry, short stories and booklets related to themes of rehabilitation and

development plans (Humanitarian Mission Report, 2009).

Recreational Rehabilitation: The beneficiaries may be provided enough

recreational opportunities during the de-radicalization phase. In this regard various

sports activities like cricket, football and others relevant to local cultural

environments may be organized in de-radicalization centers. The celebration of

days of national and religious significance like religious festivals and

independence or defence day may be organized with participation of local

administration and the community representatives.

7.3.2.6.2 Resettlement Phase

The resettlement process commences with the return of displaced families to their

native areas. The revival of economy is instrumental to institute social resettlement and

establishing peace in the post conflict environments. The efforts should be made to meet

the people‘s immediate needs for effective restoration as most of the resettled persons

would prefer to reengage in income generation activities for sustenance of their families.

Although social services are the important elements of rehabilitation but access to those

might not be sustainable without households‘ earning. The objectives of socioeconomic

recovery and corresponding actions vary with post conflict settings but may have the

resemblance in socioeconomic structure, the execution methodology and the destruction of

social and physical capital. The provision of immediate humanitarian assistance and

resettlement of displaced persons are always vital for rapid socioeconomic resettlement.

The resettlement phase may include following dimensions.

Return of TDPs: The process of returning the temporarily displaced families

should be voluntary and be carried out in dignified manner. During the process

following must be ensured;

The returning process must be sequentially conducted to avoid recidivism.

The process must commence only after de-notification of the area of origin, the

agency administration and tribal elders have been taken into confidence and the

Return Task Force (RTF) has confirmed their concurrence.

183

TDPs returning from camps and de-radicalization centers should be registered

for subsequent humanitarian assistance for early recovery.

Humanitarian Assistance: The provision of timely and effective humanitarian

assistance plays an important role during the process of social restoration and

economic recovery. In the conflict ridden areas, provision of humanitarian

assistance should be planned beyond merely extending the basic survival

assistance including food and temporary shelters mostly given during natural

disasters. During the complex conflict related emergencies, the humanitarian

assistance should include the provision of social services facilitating the speedy

transition from conflict to development, providing the foundation for sustainable

development and reducing the risk of future conflicts. This assistance in terms of

relief and social services should be provided to the vulnerable households and

communities to facilitate the process of social integration. The government even in

the early stages of the post conflict situations should evolve strategies for

restoration of social services like education, health, water and sanitation,

livelihood, housing and agriculture sectors for critical humanitarian assistance

essential during socioeconomic reintegration. The essential humanitarian

assistance which may be provided for early settlement of TDPs include following.

Transport cash assistance of Rs. 20000/- per family

One time return cash grant of Rs. 50,000/- per family

Temporary shelter and bedding (tent)

Hygiene Kit (international standards)

Monthly food package (WFP standards)

Livelihood support grants of Rs. 10,000 for six months for each verified family

Child grant of Rs. 5000 after every 3 x months per family with children of ages

up to 24 months for 1st year of resettlement

Non Food Relief Items (NFRI) including mosquito nets, jerry cans, kitchen

sets, towels, plastic mats, bed sheets, plastic basins and buckets

Additional NFRI on need basis including clothing, food containers, and plastic

sheets (4m.x5m.)

Twenty (20) Shelter sheets and cement bags each for each returning family

184

7.3.2.6.3 Restoration Phase

The restoration of education and health amenities bring immense socioeconomic

benefits to the resettled community. The schools and functioning health facilities are vital

community assets that contribute to the rebuilding of social capital. The restoration of

services and the employment of health workers and the teachers generates inward flow of

funds to jump start the social economy. However the aspect of coordination is extremely

essential for usefulness and sustainability of these initiatives to lessen the risks of un-

sustainability. The restoration phase mostly targets the social and governance dimensions

of the post conflict rehabilitation process. The immediate restoration of civic facilities and

revival of administrative institutions are pre-requisite for subsequent reconstruction phase.

These measures generate necessary socioeconomic activities; essential for successful

transition from humanitarian assistance to self-sustenance phase. The restoration phase

may include following post conflict dimensions;

Revival of civic facilities including education and health centers, water and

sanitation systems and other livelihood facilities

Restoration of social institution of Jirga

Revival of administrative institutions

Restructuring of agency law and order apparatus

Revival of transport and housing sectors

Revival of electricity and telecommunication sectors

Instituting border control mechanism

7.3.2.6.4 Reconstruction Phase

The establishment of peace creates the environments conducive for post conflict

reconstruction phase. The reconstruction activities mainly focus on economic rebound of

the post conflict economy using existing capacity not destroyed by the conflict. The

economic rebound is generally led by economic sectors that require minimal new

investment to restart like agricultural activities, small scale commerce and transport,

housing rehabilitation and banking. State owned industrial enterprises are slow to reopen

as the government would not have the resources to make even the minimal rehabilitation

investments. However industrial activities related to entertainment goods like soft drinks

and cigarettes are often quickly revived due to high demand.

185

The reconstruction of physical especially connectivity infrastructure destroyed or

damaged by conflict is the leading rehabilitation theme. The reconstruction initiatives

create employments and stimulate the economic recovery leading to sustainable growth.

However the propensity of undertaking the reconstruction of even non-essential physical

structures should be avoided. The process of reconstruction is required to be prioritized

while keeping the services and productive activities such as labour requiring main and

feeder roads and rehabilitation of social infrastructures like education, health and water

and sanitation facilities rather than reconstruction of offices etc. The reconstruction phase

may target rebuilding of following damaged socioeconomic and administrative structures;

Reconstruction of education, health, water and sanitation facilities

Reconstruction of communication infrastructure

Development and revival of industrial infrastructure

Revival and development of the agricultural and livestock industries

Development and revival of minerals industry including technical facilities

Development of dairy and transportation sector

7.3.2.6.5 Reforms; Long Term Rehabilitation

The process of sustained economic reconstruction in post conflict environments

can be stimulated through economic reforms freeing the human and physical capital from

the fetters of the conflict. In the post conflict settings, the development of medium-term

action framework is important to foster appropriate socioeconomic policy through

coordinated reform process. The reforms cut across the socioeconomic and politico-

administrative institutions embodying the principles of local participation and public

empowerment, decentralization, and justice and accountability. The process of economic

reforms needs to incorporate the principles of good governance and institutional objectives

including reformed implementation mechanism. The existing socioeconomic policies and

the political administration are inconsistent with the post conflict demands and therefore

need to harmonize itself with the changed environments for successful socioeconomic

rehabilitation.

Manufacturing and other large scale industrial activities are slow to restart and

therefore may be difficult to be rehabilitated in the immediate aftermath of post conflict

situation. The lack of capital due to slow process of external funding and high political

risks often limit the development of new socioeconomic and politico-administrative

186

infrastructures. However with the contributions from national and international developing

agencies the reconstruction efforts gather steam to further socioeconomic development

beyond the emergency period. For long term rehabilitation and reconstruction, a futuristic

planning may be carried out in following development dimensions;

Reformation of the agency politico-administrative system

Introducing trade and business friendly policies

Instituting local government system like other settled districts

Introducing judicial reforms allowing access to top judiciary

Exploring agency potentials including minerals, agriculture and livestock

Construction of small dams and water reservoirs

Development of public and private sector industries

Socioeconomic development initiatives with the help of national and international

development agencies

7.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter has identified certain building blocks of the rehabilitation

phenomenon. The chapter discusses two important research dimensions including

perceived causes of conflict and proposed rehabilitation framework. First section of the

chapter gives a brief account of the measured popular perception about the causes of

conflict. The respondents‘ feedback explains the terrorism as the root cause of the conflict

which has been intensified by other supporting factors. The aspects of poor governance

and absence of fundamental civic facilities have been identified as the conflict multipliers.

Based on the discussed popular feedback the graphical layout of the conflict has also been

drawn. The second section of this chapter deals with the post conflict rehabilitation

strategy. Before suggesting comprehensive rehabilitation and reconstruction frame work,

the existing rehabilitation models practiced in Sri Lanka and being followed in FATA

have been discussed to identify the best practices. The subsequent analysis has proposed a

comprehensive rehabilitation framework including rehabilitation management and

monitoring mechanism followed by graphical representation of the implementation flow.

Towards the end this chapter has also enlisted important policy recommendations

including measures to achieve long term development goals and instituting proposed

rehabilitation framework in the post conflict tribal environments of North Waziristan.

187

CHAPTER 8

CONCLUSION

188

CONCLUSION

8.1 Conclusion

Ever since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the socioeconomic conditions in the

North Waziristan had remained affixed with the Afghanistan‘s internal situation. The

successive generations of the agency population have been brought up in the social

environments of arms and bullets. These community members have passed through the

phases of such a bloodshed which had never been witnessed by their elders. The

traditional tribal self-esteem, dignity, communal pride, and civilization‘s wealth have

vanished during the recent years of militancy. It is not only the underprivileged local youth

of the agency which is responsible for these socioeconomic degeneration, but the bulk of

the blame is attributable to national and international actors who along with the extremist

components of the society played their strategic chess games in this area.

The poor socioeconomic conditions, the opportunities for seeking of rents and the

administrative corruptions pushed the agency youth into the arms of militancy.

Uneducated and unemployed local population mostly coming from youth was particularly

enticed by the operating terrorist outfits; thus luring them into the militant groups for

earning the livelihood and improving their economic status. The population that neither

had been engaged in activities of cultivating poppy crops nor did hold arable lands and

even could not afford the migration expenses within Pakistan or abroad also joined the

terrorist outfits for their sustenance. The sense of economic dispossession had been

playing an important role in making the people to join the terrorist organizations. Griswold

argues that in the areas where employment opportunities do not exist, the influence of

militants is generally based on money usage (Griswold, 2004). The absence of appropriate

economic incentives for the local youth, the probability of insurgency on various pretexts

cannot be over-ruled. In ‗The Bottom Billion; Why the Poorest Countries are failing and

what can be done about it‘ Collier observes that the low incomes reflect poverty and the

low growth results hopelessness (Collier, 2007). The youth who had mostly contributed

the terrorist human resource were recruited quite cheaply due to the environments of

hopelessness and poverty. Taliban fighters used to earn about U.S $ 300.00 that was pretty

attractive amount for an unemployed tribal youth (Y. Akhunzada, personal

communication, October 7, 2016). Collier (2007) observes that if the truth of subsistence

is otherwise dreadful, the odds of triumph do not have to be very high to be alluring, and

189

the prospects of death are not so worse than prospects of life in poverty. He also argues

that ―in the absence of economic development, neither good political institution, nor ethnic

and religious homogeneity, nor do high military spending provide significant defence

against large scale violence‖ (Collier and Havard Hegre, 2003). The recently experienced

terrorism born conflict can only be controlled effectively by nurturing socioeconomic

growth especially with bottom up approach. Griswold (2004) quotes Khalid Wazir saying

―the development will undermine the authority of radicals by demonstrating to the

tribesmen, that they needn‘t rely blindly on mullahs for their subsistence‖.

The post conflict societies experience strong socioeconomic recoil that can be

transformed into continued socioeconomic rehabilitation with necessary humanitarian aid

including survival assistance, immediate and permanent settlement of temporary displaced

families, followed by social reintegration of the ex-combatants. The social reintegration

would include the provision of permanent shelter and necessary help for re-engagement in

economic generation initiatives. During the early stages of post conflict restoration, the

emphasis on agriculture including provision of the farming equipment and the seeds,

restocking of the livestock, and reconstruction of the feeder roads and the civic facilities in

the rural areas, will accelerate the recovery process of the socioeconomics. During the

early phases of rehabilitation process the emphasis on agricultural sector and the small

scale enterprises helps to jump start the social restoration and the poverty diminution.

Moreover in the post conflict scenario the lasting peace, sustained economic

growth and reduction of poverty, require governance reforms to enhance institutional

efficiency. The reforms including the political administration, law and order enforcement

and the social services would be required to deal with the post conflict situations.

Decentralizing the process of economic decision making, introducing the accountability

for use of public resources are the main parameters of good governance. Reformation of

the security apparatus especially the agency administrative forces is a pre-requisite for

good governance and maintenance of peace. More recently the good governance, social

restoration and economic recovery have become the pillars of the 21st

century post conflict

rehabilitation strategies. Therefore the dimension of social participation, sharing of

economic growth, emphasis on civic facilities, institution building and restructuring will

play fundamental role in the emerging post conflict rehabilitation paradigms.

North Waziristan is full of socioeconomic resources awaiting correct rehabilitation

strategy to optimize their potentials. The agency landmass with healthy and temperate

190

climate offers most conducive environment for business activities to flourish. The water

sources flowing through the agency offer numerous sites for construction small dams and

water retaining structures to develop agrarian industry by adding to cultivable lands. The

agency also holds large quantity of unexplored precious minerals like Gold, Copper, Oil

and Gas with huge economic potentials to transform the existing poor socioeconomic

conditions of local communities. The proposed rehabilitation framework based on

perceptive planning and dynamic execution mechanism can optimally assist in the

development of mentioned sectors to revolutionize the socioeconomic fortune of the

conflict ridden North Waziristan for a better and peaceful region with focus on human

development.

8.2 Future Research

The research while endorsing the significance of socioeconomic restoration and

reforms process has concluded few important policy preferences. These rehabilitation

preferences may require further studies by future researchers to investigate various

socioeconomic dimensions for development of traditionally conservative societies of the

Pakistan‘s FATA region especially the Waziristan agencies; both North and South

Waziristan, due to their history for armed struggles. The preferred dimensions for future

research may include following.

Revival of the social capital in the under developed agencies of the tribal region

especially the militancy hit areas.

Restoration of social facilities including education, health, agriculture and

livestock sectors to create the environments for long-term socioeconomic

sustenance.

Instituting reforms; socioeconomic and governance, to sociopolitical harness the

tribal agencies in the national mainstream.

Long-term economic wellbeing plans including the development of local mining

industry to create an economically vibrant social capital.

Reconstruction of education and technical training facilities to develop a healthy

and informed youth that is less susceptible for negative social engineering.

191

8.3 Possible Limitations

Any research project in the tribal areas of Pakistan especially North Waziristan

will have an inbuilt limitation of inaccessibility, with very little known about its people,

their culture and tribal codes and laws. Due to traditionalist society most of the researchers

may find very little information about what is happening in the area, how big a threat the

area can pose, how the problem of security and obtaining of information will be tackled

and what possible options will be available to counter threats peculiar in the environments

of post conflict societies. Most importantly, the area being a virtual battlefield might not

be very conducive for extensive fieldwork, if not impossible. Another challenge to the

future research might be the difficulty of conducting solid empirical analysis based on

reliable data and dealing with the local communities. However, the researchers may

conveniently access the subject experts, practitioners, and policy makers; settled in the

safe zones, for insightful discussions to develop better understanding of the future research

problems peculiar to tribal societies like North Waziristan.

192

REFERENCES

A.Morgan, N., Zou, S., Vorhies, D. W., & Katsikeas. (2003). Experimental and

information knowledge, architectural marketing capabilities and the adaptive

performance of export venture: A cross national study. Decision Sciences, 535.

Administration, P. (2015). Geographu and Habitat. Miranshah: Political Administration

Office.

Administration, P. (2013). Minerals Development Plan- NWA. Miranshah: Poloitical

Administration Office.

Afshar, M. S., Sample, M. C., & Wood, M. T. (2008). Understanding Taliban

Organization. Military Review, 58-73.

Agabrian, M. (2004). Cercetarea calitativă a socialului- design şi performare. Insitutuli

European Iași, 23.

Ahmad, A. (1997). Social and Economic Change in the Tribal Area. Karachi: Karachi

Publishing House.

Ahmad, A. S. (1976). Millennium and Charisma Among Pathans: A Critical Essay in

Social Anthropoligy. London: Routlegde & Kegan Paul.

Ahmad, A. S. (1983). Religion and Politics in Muslim Society. London: Cambrideg

printing Press.

Ahmad, D. M. (2013). Insurgency in Fata: Causes and A Way forward. Pakistan Annual

Research Journal, 11-43.

Ahmad, R. (2000). New Heaven for Taliban. Yale: Yale University, Press.

Ahmed, R. (1999, December 1). The Taliban: Exporting Extremism. Retrieved from

Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/1999-11-

01/taliban-exporting-extremism

Ahsan. (2013, Jan 20). Schools Vs Militants: An overview of the situation in KPK and

FATA. Retrieved 2 1, jan, from http://cmcpk.wordpress.com/2013/01/20/schools-

vs-militants-an-overview-of-the-situation-in-kpk-and-fata/

Alam, I. (2012). Challanges in the establishment of the writ of the state in FATA: A case

study of Khyber Agency. Peshawar: Peshawar University.

Alam, Warris, Mujtaba, & khan. (2007). Frequency of posttraumatic stress disorder and its

association with types of physical injuries and depression in earthquake victims.

Professional Medical Publication, 386-389.

193

Alam., I., Ahmed, S., & Muhammad, N. (2014). Crime and Insurgency in FATA:A Public

Perception Survey of Khyber Agency. Pakistan Journal of Criminology, 1.

Alexander, J., & Schmidt, J. (1996). "Social Engineering: Genealogy of a Concept" in ” in

A. Podgórecki, J. Alexander and R. Shields (eds) Social Engineering. Ottawa.:

Carleton University Press.

Ali, G. (2010). Who Learns from Whom? Pukhtoon Traditions in Modern Perspective.

Peshawar: Abasin Publishing Services.

Ali, I. (2003). Laws Extended to the Tribal Areas with Jirga Laws. Peshawar: Fine Arts

Press.

Anderson. (2001). Humanitarian NGOs in Conflict Intervention‟, in C. CrockerF.O.

Hampson and P. Aall (eds.) . Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses

toInternational Conflict, 343-345.

Andrabi, T. R., Das, J, & Khwaja, A. I. (2010). Education policy in Pakistan: A

framework for reform. CERP, 5-9.

Andrei, J. V., & Ungureanu, A. (2014). THE IMPORTANCE OF ECONOMIC

STRUCTURE EVOLUTION IN ACHIEVING PERFORMANCE - FROM

AGRARIAN ECONOMY TO COMPETITIVENESS IN ROMANIAN

ECONOMY. Economies of Agriculture, 945.

Andrew, M. R. (2010). Waging War in Waziristan: The British Struggle in the Land of Bin

Laden, 1849-1947. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas .

Annual Report; Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit. (2015-2016 ). Building Lives in

FATA. Peshawar: FATA Secretariate.

Antonius, R. (2003). Interpreting Quantitative Data with SPSS. New York: SAGE

Publications.

Armstrong, & Foley. (2003). Foundations for a learning organization: Organization

Learningmechanisms. The Learning Organization,, 10.

Azam, M. (2009). Radicalization in Pakistan: Socio-Cultulral Realities. PIPS Research

Journal Conflict and Peace.

Aziz, K. (2007, August 5). Causes of Rebillion in Waziristan. Retrieved from Khalid Aziz:

www.khalidaziz.com

Aziz., K. (2008). Agenda For FATA Reforms. Peshawar: The Statesman.

Baber, M., G, M., & Webinum. (2016, September 12). MEI Policy focus . Retrieved April

12, 2017, from http://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/publications /PF23_

WeinbaumBabbar_Haqqani_web_0.pdf

194

Bajwa, A. (2013). Inside Waziristan: A journey from War to Peace , Insight into Taliban

Movement. Lahore: Vanguard Publication.

Bamberger, M. (2000). Lessons Learn and Guidelines for the use of Integerated

Apporaches, Integerated Quantitative and Qualitative Research in Development

Projects . Washington D.C: The World Bank.

Banerjee, A. (2010, August 12). The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India-.

Retrieved from MIT Economics: www.economics.mit.edu/files/511

Bank, W. (2008). Traditional Structures in Local Governance for Local Development A

Case Study of Pakhtun Residing in NWFP & FATA Pakistan. Washington D.C:

World Bank.

Bartlett, M. S. (1954). A note on the multiplying factors for various chi square

approximation. . Journal of Royal Statistical Society,, 298-08.

Bergen, P., & Tiedemann, K. (2013). Talibanistan: Negotiating the Borders Between

Terror, Politics, and Religion. New York: Oxford University Press.

Bertalanffy, L. v. (1975). Perspectives on general system theory: scientific-philosophical

studies, The International library of systems theory and philosophy. California: G

Brazilier.

Bloomfield, Huysne, & Barnes. (2003). Reconciliation after Violent Conflict: A

Handbook. Stockholm:: International IDEA.

Brahimi. (2004). The Brahimi Report. Geneva: Geneva Center of Policy Research.

Bristow, N. K. (1996). Making Men Moral: Social Engineering During the Great War.

London: New York University, .

Bruce, L. (1938). Waziristan (1936-37) The problem of the North West Frontier of India

and their solutions . Wellington: Gale and Polden Limited.

Bryman, A. (1988). Quality and quantity in social research. London: Unwin Hyman.

Burki, K. Z. (2010, July 1). Rise of Taliban in Waziristan. The Dialogue, 189-211.

Burki, K. Z. (2015). The Ascent of the Taliban in North Waziristan. Social Sciences,5.

Burton, J. W. (1997). Violence Explained: The sources of conflict, violence, and crime and

their prevention. Manchester: Manchester University, Press.

Carbonnier, G. (2015). Humanitarian Economics: War,Disaster and the Global Aid

Market. London: Oxford University Press.

Caroe, O. (1958). The Pathans 550 BC-A.D 1957. London: Macmillan Company limited.

Catell, R. b. (1966). The Scree Test for the Number of Factors . University of Illinois, 16.

Checkland, P. (1999). Systems thinking, Systems Practice. West Sussex: John Wiley .

195

Chen, S., & Renayl, Q. (2010). The Aftermath of Civil War. Washington D.C: The World

Bank.

Chronbach, L. J. (1984). Essentials of Psychological Testing. London: Joanna Cotler

Books.

Chugtai, M. Q. (2013). The Impact of Rising Terrorism and Military Operation on the

Socio Economic Culture of Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan .

FATA Research Center, 1-15.

Collier, P. (2007). The Bottom Billion; Why the Poorest Countries are failing and what

can be done about it. Newyork: Oxford University Press.

Collier, P. E., & Havard Hegre, A. H.-Q. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap; Civil and

Development Policy. Washington D.C: World Bank and Oxford University Press.

Commins, D. (2006). The Wahhabi Mission and Saudi Arabia. TJ International Ltd,

Padstow, 12-16.

Corradi, J. E., & Patricia, W. (1992). Fear at the Edge: State Terror and Resistance in

Latin America. California: University of California Press.

Costello, A. B., & Osborne, J. W. (2005). Best Practices in Exploratory Factor Analysis:

FourRecommendations for Getting the Most From Your Analysis. Practical

Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 1-9.

Davies, P. (1978). The Runaway Universe. California: Penguin Books.

Denis, A., & Fishman, D. K. (2009). The ISA Handbook in Contemporary Sociology.

London: SAGE Publications.

DeVellis, R. (2003). Scale Development: Theory and Applications. Los Anglis: SAGE

Publications.

Diez, T & Pia, E. 2007. Conflict and Human Rights; A Theoretical Framework. SHUR

Working Paper Series

Dollard, J. (1990). Conflict: Human Needs Theory. London: Macmillan.

Eden, C., & Ackermann, F. (1998). Making Strategy: The Journey of Strategic

Management. London: SAGE Publications.

Edwards, D. B. (1998). Learning From the Swat Pathans: Political Leadership in

Afghanistan, 1978–97. Jounal of the American Society Ethology, Volume 25, Issue

4, Page 712-718.

Elliot, C. P., Herger, L., Hoeffler, Queorel, & Sambanis. (2003, Jan 03). World Bank

Research. Retrieved from World Bank:

www.worldbank.org/wbsite/external/extdec/extresearch

196

Essays, U. (2003, January 1). https://www.ukessays.com/dissertation. Retrieved from

www.middlesexuniversity.com:

https://www.ukessays.com/dissertation/examples/theology/taliban.php

F, H. J., Anderson, Tatham, & Black, W. B. (2006). Multivariate Data Analysis. New

York: Prentice Hall International Incorporations.

Fair, C. (2011). The Militant Challenge in Pakistan. Chicago: Project Muse.

Fayyaz, N. (2012). Policy Intervention in FATA: Why Discourse Matters. Journal of

Strategic Studies, 48-62.

Ferketich. (1991). Focus on psychometrics: Aspects of item analysis. Research in Nursing

& Health,. Health and Nursing, 165-168.

Field, A. (2000). Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows. . London : Sage

publications.

Filho, W. L., Mifsud, ,. M., Shiel, ,. C., & Pretorius, R. (2017). Handbook of Theory and

Practice of Sustainable Development. Poole: Springer.

Finch, J., West, & Curran. (1997). The investigation of personality:Statistical models.

Journal of Research in Personality, 439-485.

Fletcher, M. G. (1931). The romance of the Indian frontiers. London: Jonathan cape.

Frankfort-Nachmias, C., & Nachmias, D. (1992). Research Methods in the Social

Sciences. Indiana: St. Martin's Press.

Frederick, S. S. (2007). The New Silk Roads: Transport and Trade in Great Central Asia.

Washington D.C: Johns Hopkins University-SAIS.

Fulga, G. (2003). Social Change and Political Culture. Belgique: ULG Publications .

Galtung, J. (1969). Violence, Peace and Peace Research. Journal of Peace Research, 167-

191.

Galtung, J., & FIscher, D. (2013). Johan Galtung: Pioneer of Peace Research. London:

Springer.

Gennip, J. (2005). Post- Conflict Reconstruction and Development. Society for

International Development, 12.

Gilbert. (2010). A Sequential Exploratory Mixed Research Design and Methods.

Melbourne: RMIT University.

Gravetter, F. J., & Wallnau, ,. L. (2016). Essentials of Statistics for The Behavioral

Sciences. Wadsworth, Ohio: Wadsworth Publishing.

Green, & Ahmad. (1999). Rehablitation, Sustainable, Peace and Development towards

Reconceptualization . Third World Quartely.

197

Green, R. H. (1990, August 25). Rehablitation, Sustainable, Peace and Development

towards Reconceptualization. Retrieved from Taylor Francis : http://www.

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01436599913992?journalCode=ctwq20

Greenfield, P. M. (2009). Linking Social Change and Developmental Change:Shifting

Pathways of Human Development. Los Anglis: American Psychological

Association.

Gul, I. (2009). The Al Qaeda Connection: The Taliban and Terror in Pakistan’s Tribal

Areas. New Dehli: Penguin Books India.

Gurr, T. R. (1970). Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Hadnagy, C. (2011). Social Engineering: The Art of Human Hacking. IndianaPolis: Wiley

Publishing.

Haider, Z. (2009, January 1). Slide Share Net. Retrieved from Slide Share Net:

https://www.slideshare.net/fatanews/mainstreaming-pakistans-tribal-belt-ziad-

haider-2009-harvard

Haines, S. G. (2000). The Systems Thinking Approach to Strategic Planning and

Management. London: St Lucie Press.

Hamrre, & Sllivan. (2002). Toward Post Conflict Reconstruction. The Washington

Quartely, 85-96.

Haq, D. N., Khan, R. A., & Nuri, M. H. (2005). Federally Administered Tribal Areas of

Pakistan: North West Tribal Belt of Pakistan Part I 550 B.C. to 1947 A.D. IPRI, 1-

50.

Haq, I. U., & Khalid, H. (2011). Pakistan: A Victim of Terrorism. IPRI Journal, 34.

Haq, N. U., Rashid, A. K., & Maqsood, U. H. (2005). Federally Administered Tribal

Areas of Pakistan. IPRI Journal, 10.

Hilali, A. (2013). Contemporary Geopolitics of FATA: An Analysis of the Afghanistan-

Pakistan Border Region. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 595-638.

Hoffman, D. H. (2013). Asian Defence Review . New Dehli: KW Publishers.

Hoffmann, H. (2009, February 1). Pakistan Aghnanistan Fresh Proposal and Action Plan.

Retrieved from World Security network: http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/

showArticle3.cfm? Article_ID= 17337,17148,

Hopkirk, P. (1992). The Great Game: The struggle for Empire in Central Asia. Tokyo:

Kodansha International.

Hopmann, T. (1999). Building Security in Post-Cold War The OSCE and US. New York:

Foreign Policy, USIP, .

198

Hussain, K. (2009, July 18). Pakistan: Countering Militancy in FATA. (C. Group,

Interviewer)

Hussain, Z. (2012). Pakistan's Most Dangerous Place. The Wilson Quartely.

Hussain., K. (2009). The Militant Discourse. Peshawar: Bacha Khan Trust Education

Foundation.

Hussey, J., & Hussey, R. (1997). Business research: a Practical Guide for Undergraduate

and Postgrad. Basingstoke: Macmillan.

'Inyi'shtab, G., Grau, L. W., & Gress, M. A. (2002). The Soveit Afghan War : How a Super

Power Fought and Lost. Lawrence: University Press Kansas.

Ibbeston, D. (1987). The Panjab Past and Present, Vol 21. Dehli: Panjabi University,

Department of Panjab Historical Studies .

Government, Royal Indian. (1908). The Imprerial Gazetteer of India; NWFP. Calcutta:

Government Pronting Press.

Johnson, H. T. (2007). On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban. . Calhoun: The NPS

Institutional Archive, , 23-34.

Johnson, T. H., & Mason, M. C. (2008). (2008). No Sign until the Brust of the Fire:

Understanding Pakistan-Afghanistan Border. International Security, Volume 32,

Pg 44.

Kaiser, H. (1970). A Second Generation Little Jiffy. Psychometrika, 401-15.

Kaiser., H. (1974). An Index of Factorial Simplicity. Psychometrika,, 31-60.

Kelen, I. (2012). Disaster Diplomacy: How Disasters Effect Peace and Diplomacy. New

York: Routledge.

Khan, A. (1997). Sociala nd Economic Cjange in the Tribal area. Karachi: Oxford

University Press.

Khan, M. (2014). Social, Political and Economic Implications of Frontier Crimes

Regulation 1901,in FATA Pakistan. Asian Journal of Social Science and

Humanities.

Khan, M. A. (2008, April 11). Abolition of FCR Demanded. Retrieved from The News:

https://www.thenews.com.pk/archive/amp/105183-abolition-of-fcr-demanded

Khan, M. N. (2008). Geological Report of Shinkai Mineralization in North Waziristan.

Islamabad: Pakistan Mineral Dvelopment Corporation-FATA-DC.

Khan, R. M. (2011). Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism, and Resistance to

Modernity. Karachi: Oxford University Press.

199

Khan, S. (2010, November). Special Status of Tribal Areas (FATA): An Artificial

Imperial Construct Bleeding Asia. Eurasia Border Review 1.

Khan, T. (2013). The Social, Political and Economic Effects of the War on Terror:

Pakistan 2009 to 2011. ISSRA Papers .

Khan., T. M. (2008). The Tribal Areas of Pakistan: A Contemporary Profile. Lahore:

Sang-e-Meel Publications.

Kim, J., & Mueller, C. W. (1994). Factor Analysis: Statistical Methods and Practical

Issues. In M. S. Lewis-Beck (editor). Facto Analysis and Related Techniques.

International Handbooks of Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciencesr.

London: SAGE Publications.

Krishna, A., & Shrader, E. (1999). Social Capital Assessment Tool. Washington D.C: The

World Bank.

Lederach., J. P. (2000). Journey from Resolution to Transformative Peacebuilding” in

Cynthia Sampson & John Paul Lederach (. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Leghari, F. (2008). Dealing with FATA: Strategic Shorfalls and Recomendations.

Retrieved from Perspectives on Terrorism: http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/ pt/

index.php/pot/article/view/54/html

Lehner, U., & Fred, T. (2001). Cluster of Competence on the Rehabilitation of War Torn

Societies. Berlin: Studies in Contemporary History.

Likert, R. (1932). A Technique for the Measurement of Attitudes. Chichago: University of

Chichago Press.

Lopez, S. J., & Snyder, C. R. (2011). The Oxford Handbook of Positive Psychology. New

York: Oxford University Press.

Lucas, C. (2010). Waziristan to Tibet; The Choronociles of Colonel H. R Brandner C. B

32 Sikh Pioneer 1882-1910. Billomington : Book Tango.

MacMunn, G. F. (1931). The Romance of the Indian Frontiers. London: Jonathan Cape.

Magnus, R. H., & Eden, N. (1998). Afghanistan; Mullah, Marx, and Mujahid. Columbia:

Westview Press.

Mahmood, J. (2017, April 11). Military operations make FATA, KP safer for tribal elders.

Retrieved from Pakistan Forward: http://pakistan.asia-news.com/en_GB/ articles/

cnmi_pf/features/2017/05/11/feature-02

Makara, S., Tukahebwa, ,. G., & Byarugaba, F. (1996). Politics, constitutionalism and

electioneering in Uganda: a study of the 1994 Constituent Assembly elections.

Makerere University , 142.

200

Malik, D. M. (2013). Role of Malik In Tribal Society: A Dynammic Change After 9/11.

Pakistan Annual Research Journal, 103-112.

Marden, P. (1998). The Taliban: War: Religion and the New Order in Afghanistan.

London: Politics of Contemporary Asia, Zeb Books.

Marie, D. (2011). Understanding the Root Cause of Conflicts:Why it matters for

International Management. International Affairs Review, 339.

Marwat, F. U. (2005). From Muhajir to Mujahid; Politics of War through Aid. Areas Study

Center, University of Peshawar, 34.

Mathew, W. W. (2005). The British Colonial Experience in Waziristan and Its

Applicability to Current Operations. Kensas: School of Advanced Military

Studies.

Mehsud, M. N. (2000). Frangi Raaj aur Ghairat Mand Musleman. Peshawar, FATA,

Pakistan: Peshawar.

Michael, S. (2007). Terrorism a socio-economic and political phenomenon with special

reference to Pakistan‖. Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 35-46.

Midgley, G. (2000). Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology, and Practice. New

York: Plenum Publishers.

Mills, W. H. (1897). The Pathan Revolt in North West India. Lahore: Civil and Military

Gazette.

Mintzberg, H., Ahlstrand, B., & Lampel, J. (1998). Strategy Safari: A Guided Tour

Through The Wilds of Strategic Mangament. London: Free Press.

Mohammad, S. M. (2003). FATA (Federally Administered Tribals Areas) : A Socio

Cultural and Geo Poltiical Histroy. Peshawar: s.n.

Moore, W. E. (1963). Social Change. Prentice Hall.

Morgenthau, H. J. (1993). The Concept of the Political. London: Macmillan.

Naqvi, A. A., Khan, S. Z., & Z. A. (2012). The Imapct of Education on Militancy in

FATA. A Journal of Peace and Development, 26.

Nathanson, B. H., L. Higgins, T., J. Giglio, R., & A. Munshi, I. (2003). An Exploratory

Study Using Data Envelopment Analysis to Assess Neurotrauma Patients in the

Intensive Care Unit. Klumer Academic Publishers.

Niaz, D. M., Intikhab, A., Sumiyya, Khifayat, U., & Shakeel, A. (2012). Crime and

Insurgency in FATA: A Public Perception Survey of Khyber Agency. Pakistan

Journal of Criminology, 12.

Nunnally, C. J. (1978). Psychometric theory (2nd Ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.

201

Oliver, E. (1800). Across the Border or Pathan and Biloch. London: Chapman and Hall

limited.

Orakzai, A. M. (2009, june 12). IPS. Retrieved September 27, 2017, from

http://www.ips.org.pk/global-issues-and-politics/1057-situation-in-fata-causes-

consequences-and-the-way-forward

Pakistan, Governemnt of (1998). Federally Adiminstered Tribal Areas. Retrieved from

FATA: https://www.fata.gov.pk/Global.php?iId=35&fId=2&pId=32&mId=13

Pallant, J. (2013). A Step by Step Guide to Data Analysis Using SPSS, 4th Edition. Allen &

Unwin,. Retrieved from SPSS Survival Manual.: www.allenandunwin.com/spss.

Pannell, & Theodore, L. (1922). Among the Wild Tribes of the Afghans: A record of

sixteen years close intercourse with the natives of the Indian macrches. London:

Seeley Services Company Limited.

Pantev, P. (2004, January 12). Conceptual and Terminology Issues of post Conflict

Rehablitation. Retrieved from Bundsheer: http://www.bundesheer.at/ pdf_pool/

publikationen/10_wg_pcr_pantev_20.pdf

PCNA. (2010). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa & Federally Administrated Tribal Areas,. Peshawar:

KP Government.

PCNA. (2011). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa & Federally Administrated Tribal Areas,. Peshawar:

KP Government.

Philips, L. (1998). Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Social Research

in Human Geography—An Impossible Mixture? SAGE Journals.

Podgórecki, A., Alexander, J., & Shields, R. (1996). Social Engineering. Ottawa: Carleton

University Press.

Pohoata. (1993). Social and economic development. Research and Developemnt

Stairways, 128.

Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, D. a. (2009). From Conflict to Stability;

Northern Province, Sri Lanka; Report. Colombo: Governement Press.

Pugh, M. (1998). Post-Conflict Rehabilitation: the Humanitarian Dimension. CASIN

Plymouth, 19-21.

Pyakuryal, K. N., Upreiti, B., & Sharma. (2008). Transition to Transformation.

Kathmandu: HNRSC, NCCR North-South.

202

Qadir, A. (2014, january 12). The US War on Terror and the Drone Attacks in FATA,

Pakistan. Retrieved january 12, 2017, from https://www.researchgate.net/

publication/283268427_The_US_War_on_Terror_and_the_Drone_Attacks_in_FA

TA_Pakistan

Quah, S. R., & Sales, A. (2000). The International Handbook of Sociology. London:

SAGE Publications.

Rakists, D. C. (2008). PAKISTAN‘S TRIBAL AREAS: A CRITICAL NO-MAN‘S

LAND. Webster University Forum (pp. 1-10). Geneva: Webster University.

Rament, V. (2012). Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies.

Brussels: Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union policy

department.

Rana, M. A. (2009). Taliban Insurgency in FATA Pakistan: A Counter-insurgency

Perspective. Islamabad: PIPS.

Rashid, A. (1999). The Taliban; Exporting Terrorism. Foreign Affairs, 22-35.

Rashid., A. (2008). Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan,

Afghanistan, and Central Asia. London: Penguin Publications.

Report, C. G. (2009). Pakistan: Countering Militancy in FATA. Islamabad: Crisis Group .

Report, P. (2003). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal Areas Administered. Peshawar:

PNCA.

Richard, S. (2005). After the Conflict: Reconstruction and Development in the Aftermath

of War. London: I.B Tauris and company.

Roggio, B. (2009, August 08). "Pakistani Taliban's Top Spokesman Captured in

Mohmand". Retrieved from Long War Journal: www.longwarjournal.com

Rose, A. M. (2010). Wagging war in Waziristan: The British War in the Land of Bin

Laden (1847-1947). London.

Rudestam, K. E., & Newton, R. R. (2015). Surviving Your Dissertation: A Comprehensive

Guide to Content and Process. New York: SAGE Publishing.

Salman, M. (2012). An Analysis of Pakistan Policy in the War against Terrorism and Its

Implications in KPK Pakistan. International journal of Business and Social

Sciences, 3(5),242-249.

Sandhu, N. Y. (2013, June 30). North Waziristan: Propects of Developments and Change.

North Waziristan: Propects of Developments and Change. Sargodha, Punjab,

Pakistan: Unpublished Thesis, University of Sargodha.

203

Schmitt, T. (2011). Current methodological considerations in exploratory and

confirmatory factor analysis. Journal of Psychoeducational Assessment, 304-321.

Schostak, J. (2006). Interviewing And Representation In Qualitative Research. New York:

MacGrawHill.

Secretariate, F. (2007). FATA Sustainable Development Plan 2007-15. Peshawar: FATA

Seretariat, Directorate of FATA.

Sehgal, I. (2003). Jihad against Terrorism. Defence Journal.

Senge, P. M. (2010). The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning

Organization. New York : Crown Publishing Group.

Shakoor, A. (2012, December 12). Pakhtuns and the War on Terror: A Cultural

Perspective. Pakhtuns and the War on Terror: A Cultural Perspective. Peshawar,

KhyberPakhtunKhawa, Paksitan: University of Peshawar.

Shinwari, I. (2005). A Bad law nobody can defend. Press under the FCR, HRC Pakistan

(p. 12). Lahore: QasimKarim Printers, .

Shinwari, N. A. (2010, December 1). Political system of FATA; Attitudes Towards

Governance, Religion and Society in Pakistan's, Federally Administered Tribal

Areas, Volume IV. Lahore: Sangee Meel Publications.

Shinwari, N. A. (2011). Understating Jirga; Legality and Legitimacy in Pakistan's FATA.

Community Appraisal and Motivation Program, 12-20.

Sikorski, R. (1990). Dust of the Saints: A Journey to Herat in Time of War. New York:

Paragon House.

Spain, J. W. (1962). The Way of the Pathans. London: Oxford Printnig Press.

Spain, J. W. (1985). The Pathan Border Land. Karachi: Indus Publication.

Speth, J. G. (1994). United Nations Human Development Report 1994. New York: Oxford

University Press.

Starr, S. F., Kuchins, A., Benson, S., Karkowski, E., Linn, J., & Sanderson, T. (2010). The

Key to Success in Afghanistan, A Modren Silk Road Strategy (Silk Road Studies

Program). Washington D.C: John Hopkins University.

Steen, P. W. (2010). Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global

System. Chinnai: C & M Digitals, Chinnai India.

Strasser, H., & Randall, S. C. (1981). An Introduction to Theories of Social Change. The

Canadian Journal of Sociology, 476-480.

Tabachnick, B., & Fidell, L. S. (2007). Using multivariate statistics: . Chicago: Univesity

of Chicago Press.

204

Tahir, C. (2009, January 22). Governance of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Islamabad, Pakistan: National Defence University,.

Taj, F. (2011). Taliban and Anti-Taliban. New Castle: Cambridge Scholars Pubslihing .

Taylor, C. (1976). Hermenutics and Politics Critical Sociology. Harmondsworth, London:

Penguin Books.

Texas, University of. (2010, July 27). Division of Instructional Innovation and

Assessment. Retrieved from Division of Instructional Innovation and Assessment:

https://news.utexas.edu/2010/07/27/in-the-know

Thomas H. Johnson. (2007). On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban. Calhoun: The

NPS Institutional Archive, 23-34.

Thurstone, L. (1947). Multiple-factor Analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Tom, P. (2007). National intelligence Estimate: Al-Qaeda a threat to US Home Land.

Christian Science Monitor.

Totterdill, P., & Judith. (2014). Economic Foundation of Social Innovation: New Modes of

Policy Foundation. Munscheidstr.: Regional Innovations Policy Center.

Toynbee, A. (1961). Between Oxus and Jumna:. London: Oxford University Press.

Tanscripts, Royal Indian Army General Staff. (1921). Operations in North Waziristan

1920-21. Calcutta: Government printing press.

Trust, R. (2009). Rehabilitation as a Form of Reparation under International Law. Redress

Trust, 12.

Tutu, D. (1999). No Future without Forgiveness. . London: Rider.

UNESCO. (2003). Women and Peace in Africa: Case Studies on traditional conflict

resolutions practices. UNESCO Workshops. Paris: UNESCO.

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Definitions of Terrorism. 2007.

<http://www.unodc.org/unodc/terrorism_definitions.html>, (accessed on 15 Jun

2017)

Upreiti. (2009). Nepal from War to Peace: Legacies of the Past and Hopes Future. New

Delhi: Adroit Publishers.

Upreti, B. R. (2008). Managing War to Peace transition in Nepal. Readings on

Governance and Development, (XI). 35-49.

Volha, D. (2005). Business enviornment and entrepreneurial activity. National University,

Khiya Mohlya Academy, 12.

W, C., Marcolin, & Newsted. (1996). A partial least squares latent variable modeling

approach for measuring interaction effects: Results from a Mone Carlo simulation

205

study and voice mail emotion /adaptation study. International Conference on

INformation Systems (p. 1). Clevelant: ICCS.

Warren, A. (2000). The Faqir of Ippi and India Army; The North West Revolt of 1936-

1937. London: Oxford University Press.

Weber, R. (1990). Content Analysis. California: New Bury Park.

Wendy Griswold, N. W. (2004). Cowbirds, Local, and theDynamics Endurace of

Regionalism. American Journal ofg Sociology, 1411-1451.

West, Finch, & Curan. (1995). Structural Equation Models with Non-normal Problems and

Remedies. Structural Equation Modeling, 56-75.

White, M. (1975). Cooper, Zinc, Arsenic, and Lead in Pakistan. Washington DC: US

Department of Geological Survey.

William, I. (2003). Why Africa Needs Security Sector Reform. Security Reform in Africa,

12.

Wylly., H. (1912). From the Black Mountains to Waziristan. London: Macmillan and

Company Limited.

Yousaf, N., Khan, B., & Hussain, S. (2018). Rehabilitating North Waziristan. Policy

Perspective,15 (2), pp. 99-111.

206

Annexure A

AGENCY GEOGRAPHIC LAYOUT

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

Legend

Headquarter

Sub-Division

Tehsil

River

Newly Opened Are

Sub-Division Boundary

A F G H A N I S T A N

South Waziristan

T Thal

F.R Bannu

A F G H A N I S T A N

Inzer Kas

Assar

Maizar D

Mama Ziarat Shatghal

ai Gorvak

Miradin

Macha Barmand

Doga

Shewa Bangidar

Zara Mella Sar

IDAK

Idar Khel

Ippi

Shawali

Nowsher Fort

Spulga

Seman

Ghardai

Baba Zairat

Tanda Kas

Danda Saidgi

Mohd Khel daur

khel

Kaitu

Maismoon Khel

GHULAM KHAN

Lawara

D

Miradin

Tauda China

Mama Ziarat

Gorvak

Drey Nashtar

Tehsil Shewa

Assar

Ghulam Khan

Mirali

Miranshah

Pash ziarat

Maizar

Tehsil Spinwam

Newly Opened Area Madda Khel

Razmak

Datta Khel

Garyum

Dossali

Kurram River

Kaito River

Tochi River

Kajuri

BABA ZIARAT

Gurbaz

Mana

Ghazlamai

(PhaseI 15 km) (PhaseII 10 km)

(PhaseI 25 km)

(Phase-II)

(8 km) (16 km)

ISha

Newly Opened Area Shawal

Kuram River

Kaitu River

Tochi River

Karkarwam

Kurram

Agency

75 Km

13 Km

24 Km

180 Km

98 Km

207

Annexure B

MINERALS MAP

Source: Mineral concession cell FATA secretariat and Agency Archives.

Source: Minerals Development Plan - NWA, 2013.

208

Annexure C

IMPORTANT POPULATION CENTERS

Serial Village Approximate Houses

1. Muhammad Khel 1000

2. Syed Abad 500

3. Khatti Killi 150

4. Ghazimai 100

5. Muhammad Khel 150

6. Haider Khel 500

7. Hurmaz 300

8. Maza Ziarat 100

9. Baba Ziarat 70

10. Ter Tangi 100

11. Khar Tangi 30

12 Arang Zhawar 60

13. Dabbar 50

14. Sekho Khel 50

15. Ismail Khel 120

16. Maidan 40

17. Zangotai 150

18. Wuzghai 30

19. Ghazlamai 30

20. Matrai 25

21. Ghala Maskay 10

22. Musaki 250

23. Hussu Khel 500

24. Naurak 350

25. Spalgha 250

26. Ali Khel 100


209

Annexure D

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION


210

Annexure E

CONNECTIVITY INFRASTRUCTURE

Serial Route Name Length

(Kilometer)

Width

(Meter) Surface Condition

1. Bannu-Miranshah-Ghulam

Khan 69 5-6 Black top

3. Bannu - Isha -Razmak 115 4-5 Black top

3. Mirali- Spinwam - Thal 58 4 Black top

4. Miranshah-Ghulam Khan 18 4 Black top

5. Mirali- Bichi- Khushali -

Razmak 80 4-5 Black top

6. Mana - Gurbaz - Dabbar-

Dre nashtar 27 3-4 Black top

7. Dosalli - Garyum 27 5 Black top

8. Miranshah - Darduni 4 4-5 Black top

9. Miranshah-Datta Khel -

Shirani 65 4-5

Black top and

Shingled track

10. Saidgai-Miranshah 54 4-5 Black top and

Shingled track

11. Khar Kamar- Barmand 11 4 Black top and

Shingled track

12. Datta Khel - Tut Narai –

Gardai Rogha 29 4-5 Shingled track

13. Razmak - Pash Ziarat -

Mana 22 3-4 Shingled track

14. Gurbaz - Mera Din - Zoe

Narai 16 3-4 Shingled track

211

Serial Route Name Length

(Kilometer)

Width

(Meter) Surface Condition

15. Dabbar – Mangrotai 9 3-4 Shingled track

16. Gurbaz - Mera Din - Dwa

Toi 31 4

Shingled track

17. Mana - Shatghalai - Datta

Khel 29 4-5

Shingled track

18. Tut Narai - Degan 12 3-4 Shingled track

19. Datta Khel - Assar -

Alwara Mandi 28 3-4

Shingled track

20. Trimora - Assar - Alwara

Mandi 16 3-4

Shingled track

21. Faqiran - Barmand 22 4-5 Shingled track

22. Barmand - Memon Punga 13.5 4-5 Shingled track

23. Gharlamai - Alwara 17 4 Shingled track

24. Wucha Bibi - Admi Kot 10 3-4 Shingled track

25. Wucha Bibi - Shwai

Kashai 13 3-4 Shingled track

26. Gharlamai – Mangaseen 8 3-4 Shingled track

27. Naurak - Machi Khel –

Bangidar 48 3-4 Shingled track

28. Miranshah - Marsi Khel -

Zara Mela 36 4 Shingled track

30. Tal – Boya 30 4-5 Kacha track

31. Tal Spulga - Khushali 13 5-4 Kacha track


212

Annexure F

GENEALOGY OF UTMANZAI WAZIRS


213

Annexure G

GENEALOGY OF DAWARS


214

Annexure H

EMINENT ELDERS

Serial Name

1. Malik Nasrullah Khan Wazir - Chief of Waziristan Tribes

Tehsil Miranshah

.2. Malik Mumtaz Daur; Miranshah

3. Malik Abdul Qadoos Daur; Miranshah

4. Malik Mohammad Noor Din Daur; Darpa Khel

5. Malik Mir Qadar Daur; Darpa Khel

6. Malik Abdul Jabar Daur; Darpa Khel

7. Malik Rabnawaz Daur; Tappi

8. Malik Mohammad Sher Daur; Hamzoni

9. Malik Darya Jan Wazir; Anghar Killa

10. Malik Shah Jehan Wazir; Bora Khel

11. Malik Saifullah Jan Spulga; Tori Khel

12. Malik Sardar Naimatullah; Spulga Tori Khel

13. Pir Aqal Zuman; Pir Killi

14. Malik Shareen Akbar Daur; Miranshah

15. Malik Mohammad Noor Jan Daur; Miranshah

16. Malik Noor Jan Daur; Miranshah

17. Malik Ijaz Daur; Miranshah

18. Malik Laiq Shah Daur; Darpa Khel

19. Malik Habibullah Daur; Darpa Khel

20. Malik Akhtar Jan Daur; Darpa Khel

21. Malik Abdul Qadar Daur; Darpa Khel

22. Malik Amanullah Jan Daur; Darpa Khel

23. Malik Noor Rehman Daur; Tappi

24. Malik Niaz Khan Daur; Tappi

25. Malik Akber Zuman Daur; Hamzoni

26. Malik Khan Marjan Daur; Hamzoni

27. Malik Afsar Khan Daur; Hamzoni

215

Serial Name

29. Malik Sarfraz Daur; Hamzoni

30. Malik Hameed Ur Rehman Daur; Hamzoni

31. Malik Akber Khan Bora Khel; Tool Khel

32. Malik Shazada Bora Khel

33. Malik Zar Wali Datta Khel Bora Khel

34. Haji Rehman Bora Khel; Tool Khel

35. Haji Remal Bora Khel

36. Malik Amanullah Tori Khel; Spulga

37. Malik Gul Rehmat Tori Khel; Spulga

38. Malik Badshah Mir Khan Tori Khel; Spulga

39. Malik Arbab Tori Khel; Spulga

40. Malik Sikandar Tori Khel; Spulga

41. Haji Mir Daray Khan Daur; Darpa Khel

42. Malik Sarfraz Daur; Tappi

43. Malik Behram Khan Daur; Tappi

44. Malik Akber Khan Tori Khel; Spulga

45. Malik Noor Afzal Daur; Miranshah

46. Malaik Shah Fayaz Daur; Miranshah

47. Malik Ismaeel Daur; Hamzoni

Tehsil Datta Khel

48. Malik Kamran Khan Madda Khel

49. Malik Sheryar Madda Khel

50. Malik Naeem Khan Madda Khan

51. Malik Nek Daraz Madda Khel

52. Dr. Zakeem Madda Khel

53. Malik Abdul Qayum Madda Khel

54. Malik Sadiqullah Daur Mohammad Khel

55. Malik Mushtaq Khadder Khel

56. Malik Ghani Khadder Khel

57. Malik Adram Khadder Khel

58. Malik Yarma Jan Khadder Khel

216

Serial Name

60. Malik Faqir Mehtar Kani Rogha Manzar Khel

61. Malik Mehmood Mami Rogha Manzar Khel

62. Ahmed Gul Kani Rogha Manzar Khel

63. Shera Jan Madda Khel

64. Subedar Mirjanat Khan Madda Khel

65. Malik Gul Amir Ismaeel Khel Madda Khel

66. Malik Mohammad Amir Assar Madda Khel

67. Malik Umer Jan Madda Khel

68. Mr Mashayer Madda Khel

69. Malik Atlas Madda Khel

70. Malik Gulop Madda Khel

71, Malik Mohammad Salam Madda Khel

72. Malik Dolat Khan Madda Khel

73. Malik Dari Madda Khel

74. Malik Ali Shah Madda Khel

75. Malik Gulzar Daur Eidal Khel

76. Mr Noor Hassan Daur Degan

77. Malik Khanzeb Daur Mohammad Khel

78. Malik Taj Mohammad Daur Mohammad Khel

79. Mr Mir Nawaz Daur Mohammad Khel

80. Malik Mama Khan Ghazlami Pir

81. Mr Awal Khan Pai Khel

82. Mr Bakhtyar Zoi Saidgai

83. Malik Usman Daur Land

84. Malik Urangzeb Daur Land

85. Malik Said Shah Daur Boya

Tehsil Ghulam Khan

86. Malik Masher Wazir Tabbi Bora Khel

87. Malik Mohammad Yaqoob Khan Gurbaz

88. Malik Haji Mohammad Danday Saidgi

89. Mr Khyal Mar Jan Danday Saidgi

217

Serial Name

91. Malik Ama Jan Loli Faqiran

92. Molvi Sayeed Mar Jan Loli Faqiran

93. Haji Moman Khan Saidgi

94. Mr Sabir Din Gurbaz

95. Malik Behram Khan Gurbaz

96. Mr Mughal Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal

97. Malik Daraz Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal

98. Malik Akber Khan Sarak Danday Dirdoni

99. Malik Tasleem Bora Khel Tabi Wal

100. Mr Mohabat Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal

101. Malik Hanif Gurbaz Sher Khel

102. Malik Darjay Tabi Wali

Tehsil Mirali

103. Malik Mir Sharoof Khan Daur Haider Khel

104. Malik Nawab Mir Khon Khel Tori Khel

105. Malik Noor Sadey Khan Hassu Khel

106. Malik Mohammad Haleem Daur Zeraki

107. Malik Wakeel Khan Daur Khaddi

108. Malik Sadiqullah Toor Daur Eidak

109. Malik Khan Mar Jan Anghar Killa Dirdoni

110. Malik Shad Amin Khushali Tori Khel

111. Malik Mohammad Noor Khan Daur Haider Khel

112. Malik Anwar Beg Daur Haider Khel

113. Malik Sarwar Khan Daur Haider Khel

114. Malik Rehmatullah Daur Haider Khel

115. Mr Sattar Khan Daur Eppi

116. Malik Sherullah Daur Haider Khel

117. Engineer Abdul Qayum Khan Daur Haider Khel

118. Malik Dilnawaz Daur Mossaki

119. Malik Amanullah Daur Hassu Khel

120. Malik Abdul Munim Daur Hurmaz

218

Serial Name

122. Malik Sadem Daur Issori

123. Malik Ahmed-ud-Din Daur Issori

124. Malik Haqnawaz Daur Zeraki

125. Malik Badshah Mir Khan Daur Khaddi

126. Malik Noor Wali Khan Daur Khaddi

127. Malik Mirnawaz Daur Eidak

128. Malik Latif Khan Daur Eidak

129. Pir Abdul Hameed Shah Daur Eidak

130. Malik Skindar Daur Mubarkshahi

131. Malik Said Hassan Daur Mubarkshahi

132. Malik Gul Daraz Khan Mirali Tori Khel

133. Malik Gul Nawaz Madi Khel Tori Khel

134. Malik Sher Ayub Khushahli Tori Khel

135. Malik Aslam Khushahli Tori Khel

136. Malik Ahmed Jan Khushahli Tori Khel

137. Malik Zuman Ali Khel Tori Khel

138. Malik Rais Khan Zarini Tori Khel

139. Malik Nawab Khan Marsi Khel Bora Khel

140. Malik Remal Khan Marsi Khel Bora Khel

141. Malik Khan Mohammad Marsi Khel Bora Khel

142. Mr Shamour Bora Khel

143. Malik Arbab Khushahli

144. Malik Atta Ur Rehman Khaddi

145. Malik Mehmood Hassu Khel

146. Malik Akram Khan Kushahli

147. Malik Gul Jamat Zaker Khel Tori Khel

Tehsil Spinwam

148. Malik Shandi Gul Shamiri Tori Khel

149. Malik Faqir Niamat Hassan Khel

150. Malik Shabal Khan Hassan Khel

151. Malik Badshah Zarjan Hassan Khel

219

Serial Name

153. Malik Akber Khan Mirali Tori Khel

154. Malik Gul Jamat Khan Datta Khel Tori Khel

155. Malik Akram Khan Bobali Tori Khel

156. Malik Shaizal Mirali Tori Khel

157. Malik Bahadar Khan Sheratala Tori Khel

Tehsil Shewa

158. Malik Shah Jehan Miami Kabul Khel

159. Malik Abdul Qadar Saifali Kabul Khel

160. Malik Abdul Qadoos Malik Shahi Kabul Khel

161. Malik Sher Ali Khan Saifali Kabul Khel

162. Malik Sarmast Khan Saifali Kabul Khel

163. Malik Muzamil Saifali Kabul Khel

164. Malik Wali Khan Saifali Kabul Khel

165. Malik Nawab Khan Malik Shahi Kabul Khel

166. Malik Shalam Khan Malik Shahi Kabul Khel

167. Malik Pir Khan Kabul Khel

168. Malik Berai Kabul Khel

Tehsil Razmak

169. Malik Rehim Khan Khushali Tori Khel

170. Malik Gul Wali Khan Shogi Tori Khel

171. Malik Mohammad Qasim Khushali Tori Khel

172. Malik Mohammad Anwar Khushali Tori Khel

173. Mr Barkat Shah Khushali Tori Khel

174. Malik Izat Nekbal Shogi Tori Khel

175. Malik Ghazu Khan Shogi Tori Khel

176. Malik Shamali Khan Shogi Tori Khel

177. Malik Mohammad Jan Shogi Tori Khel

178. Mr Mohammad Rahim Shogi Tori Khel

179. Mr Shah Mehmood Khakhimar Tori Khel

180. Mr Atta Mohammad Mir Khoon Khel Bora Khel

181. Mr Ghaffar Khan Tori Khel

220

Serial Name

183. Mr Mohammad Khan Bora Khel

184. Malik Sarwar Jan Bora Khel

185. Malik Gulabat Khan Wazir Bora Khel

186. Malik Maley Khan Bora Khel

187. Mr Mir Badshah Khan Daur Hamzoni

188. Mr Ajab Khan Daur Miranshah

Tehsil Dossali

189. Malik Meharban Wazir Dirdoni

190. Malik Janfraz Wazir Dirdoni

191. Malik Darsalam Wazir Dirdoni

192. Malik Ghaffar Khan Wazir Dirdoni

193. Malik Mohammad Ayub Wazir Dirdoni

194. Malik Akram Khan Wazir Dirdoni

195. Mr Hakim Din Wazir Asad Khel

196. Malik Pasham Khan Wazir Razani

197. Malik Mehtar Khan Wazir Dosalli

198. Malik Masharaf Wazir Dosalli

Tehsil Gharyum

199. Malik Ganju Khan Maddi Khel Tori Khel

200. Malik Jehngir Khan Bobali Tori Khel

201. Subedar Shah Mehmood Khan Madi Khel Tori Khel

202. Malik Khaisoor Khan


221

Annexure I

RELIGIOUS PERSONALITIES

Serial Name

1. Maulvi Rab Nawaz

2. Maulvi Hameed Ullah Qutab Khel

3. Qari Roman

4. Siraj Ud Din Haqqani

5. Qari Said Wazir

6. Maulvi Rehmat Ullah

7. Maulvi Haleem Shah

8. Maulvi Noor Akhtar Jan

9. Maulvi Ghani Gul

10. Maulvi Latif Ullah

11. Maulvi Abdul Ghani

12. Maulvi Said Zaman

13. Maulvi Muhammad Hassan

14. Maulvi Nek Bhadar

15. Maulvi Muhammad Faraz

16. Maulvi Sakhi Jan

17. Maulvi Muhammad Hassan

18. Maulvi Mian Wali Khan

19. Maulvi Muhammad Khalil

20. Maulvi Mansoor Khan


222


Serial Name

22. Qari Noor Islam

23. Sher Ajam Khan

24. Maulvi Rehman Said

25. Gul Shahid

26. Momin Khan

27. Maulvi Pir Zaman

28. Maulvi Muhammad Zubair

29. Haji Noor Muhammad

30. Abdul Shakoor

31. Maulvi Maula Khan

32. Maulvi Abdul Samad

33. Maulvi Sadiq Noor

34. Qari Aziz Ullah


36. Maulvi Karam Khan

37. Yaqub Khan Mehsud

38. Maulvi Hussain

39. Maulvi Sher Baz

40. Muhammad Sher

41. Qari Imdad Ullah

42. Qari Abdullah

43. Maulvi Sard Ali

44. Maulvi Gul Zar

223

Annexure J

GOVERNMENT AGREEMENT

(1951-51)

1. We proclaim that our territory is an integral part of the dominion of Pakistan and

we are citizens of Pakistan.

2. We pledge our loyalty to the Constitution of Pakistan and the Government of

Pakistan as by law established.

3. We shall remain peaceful and law abiding citizens of Pakistan and shall render

every assistance to the Government, whenever called upon to do so.

4. We and our tribes shall have no dealings with any other power and the friends of

Pakistan shall be our friends and the enemies of Pakistan shall be our enemies.

5. We shall protect the rights and interests of Pakistan at all cost and shall faithfully

abide by directions given to us by the Government of Pakistan in this regard from

time to time.

6. We shall render every assistance to the officials of the Pakistan Government in our

areas and shall ensure their safety.

7. We shall facilitate the construction of roads, other public works, defence

installations and establishment of communications in our areas and shall ensure the

safety and protection of all Government property in our area. We shall also render

every assistance to Government in the social and economic development of our

area.

8. In the internal affairs of our tribe, the Pakistan Government will ensure the

maintenance of our tribal customs and usages and all our tribal matters and internal

disputes shall be settled in accordance with our tribal customs and in consultation

with and through our tribal leaders.

9. The Government of Pakistan will continue to pay us our annual Muajib of

Rupees._____ for the tribe and Rupees.________ as lungis for Maliks and

representatives of our tribes. These grants will be subject to good behaviour and

the fulfillment of the obligations detailed above, which our tribe has undertaken

upon itself.

224

10. We shall attend to all summons of the officers of the Pakistan Government and

shall call on the Political Agent, to receive our annual Muajibs in the spring every

year. If we fail to do so, the Muajibs for the year shall be forfeited to the

Government of Pakistan.

11. That, we shall abide by all the previous undertakings given and agreements made

by us, from time to time, with the Government.

Source: Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (States and Frontier Regions Division).

225

Annexure K

CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS OF FATA

Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on behalf of the President of Pakistan exercises

the federal authority to administer the tribal areas of Pakistan. The Constitution of

Pakistan governs FATA through the same rules which were framed by the British in 1901

as FCR. The Jurisdiction of Supreme Court and High Courts of Pakistan do not extend to

FATA and Provincially Administered Tribal Areas, according to Article 247 and Article

248, of 1973 Constitution of Pakistan.

Article 246

"Tribal Areas" means the areas in Pakistan which, immediately before the

commencing day, were Tribal Areas, and includes the Tribal Areas of Baluchistan and the

North- West Frontier Province; and the former States of Amb, Chitral, Dir and Swat;

"Provincially Administered Tribal Areas" means

The districts of Chitral, Dir and Swat (which includes Kalam), the Tribal Area in

Kohistan district, Malakand Protected Area, the Tribal Area adjoining Mansehra

district and the former State of Amb; and

Zhob district, Loralai district (excluding Duki Tehsil), Dalbandis Tehsil of Chagi

District and Marri and Bugti tribal territories of Sibi district; and

Federally Administered Tribal Areas includes

Tribal Areas adjoining Peshawar district;

Tribal Areas adjoining Kohat district;

Tribal Areas adjoining Bannu district;

Tribal Areas adjoining Dera Ismail Khan district;

Bajaur Agency,

Orakzai Agency,

Mohmand Agency,

Khyber Agency;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Pakistan


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_Crimes_Regulations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provincially_Administered_Tribal_Areas


226

Kurram Agency;

North Waziristan Agency, and

South Waziristan Agency.

Subject to the Constitution, the executive authority of the Federation shall extend to

the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and the executive authority of a Province

shall extend to the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas therein.

The President may, from time to time, give such directions to the Governor of a

Province relating to the whole or any part of a Tribal Area within the Province as he

may deem necessary, and the Governor shall, in the exercise of his functions under this

Article, comply with such directions.

No Act of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) shall apply to any Federally Administered

Tribal Area or to any part thereof, unless the President so directs, and no Act of

Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) or a Provincial Assembly shall apply to a Provincially

Administered Tribal Area, or to any part thereof, unless the Governor of the Province

in which the Tribal Area is situate, with the approval of the President, so directs; and

in giving such a direction with respect to any law, the President or, as the case may be,

the Governor, may direct that the law shall, in its application to a Tribal Area, or to a

specified part thereof, have effect subject to such exceptions and modifications as may

be specified in the direction.

Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, with

respect to any matter within the legislative competence of Majlis- e- Shoora

(Parliament), and the Governor of a Province, with the prior approval of the President,

may, with respect to any matter within the legislative competence of the Provincial

Assembly make regulations for the peace and good government of a Provincially

Administered Tribal Area or any part thereof, situated in the Province.

Source: Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (States and Frontier Regions Division).

227

Annexure L

AGENCY ADMINISTRATION

Serial Name Designation Location

1. Kamran Ahmed Afridi Political Agent Miranshah

2. Mr Abdul Nasir Additional Political Agent Miranshah

3. Mr Taimoor Afridi Assistant Political Agent Miranshah

4. Mr Irfan Uddin Assistant Political Agent Mirali

5. Mr Saleem Jan Marwat Assistant Political Agent Razmak

6. Mr Noor Sahib Khan Executive Engineer

Communication

Miranshah

7. Mr Javed Iqbal Executive Engineer

Irrigation

Miranshah

8. Mr Nasir Khan Executive Building Miranshah

9. Mr Awal Ayaz Agency Education officer Miranshah

10. Dr Rehman Afridi Agency Surgeon Miranshah

11. Mr Muhammad Anwar Agency Agriculture

Officer

Miranshah

12. Dr Abdul Rehman Assistant Director

Livesock

Miranshah

13. Mr Ihsan Ullah Forest Range Officer Miranshah

14. Mr Arif Ullah Agency Account Officer Miranshah

15. Mr Jehanzeb Sub-division Officer

Public Health Engineering

Miranshah

16. Mr Abdul Aziz Supervisor Sericulture

Source: Political Agent Office- NWA, 2016.

228

Annexure M



(QUESTIONNAIRE)

Note: This is purely an academic endeavor pursing Ph.D. program in the discipline of

Public Administration. It shall be the researcher‘s ethical responsibility to keep all the

information strictly confidential.

Respondent’s Profile

1. Name of the respondent (Optional) _______________________________

2. Gender ________________________

3. Age

(1) 18 – 25 Years (2) 26 – 35 Years

(3) 35 – 50 Years (4) 51 Years and above

4. Education (No of years)

(1) Primary and below (2) 5 – 9 years education

(3) 10 – 14 years education (4) 15 years and above

5. House Status

(1) Own (2) Rented

(3) Camp (TDP) (4) Others

6. Profession

(1) Government job (2) Private job (3) Own business

(4) Jobless (5) Student (6) Others

7. Residence Tehsil (Optional)

(1) Miranshah (2) Mirali (3) Razmak

229

PART - 1

Q.1 Post Afghan war (1979-1991) settlement of foreign fighters implanted the seeds

of conflict

Strongly Agree Agree Don‘t know Disagree Strongly Disagree

Q.2 The settler‘s exploitation of local cultural values of Hospitality and Panah

infused the elements of conflict


Q.3 Pakistan‘s policy to support NATO forces during the present Afghan crises

triggered the wave of recent conflict


Q.4 Socio-economic conditions of the agency have been damaged by the recently

experienced conflict


Q.5 Traditional institution of conflict controlling mechanism; Jirga has been

targeted and rendered ineffective during the conflict


Q.6 Counter conflict military operations also contributed to the economic setbacks

suffered by local inhabitants


230

Q.7 Establishment of foreign funded madrassas during the Afghan war (1979-1991)

breaded the seeds of terrorism that lead to conflict


Q.8 Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars subsequently instituted the terrorism

born state of conflict


Q.9 Successive peace agreements made with the terrorists exacerbated the state of

ongoing conflict


Q.10 Lack of formal education served the cause of terrorism consequently breading

the conflict


Q.11 Lacked employment opportunities for local youth contributed to the terrorism

induced conflict


Q.12 Outdated traditional politico-administrative system of the agency failed to

control the terrorism born conflict


231

Q.13 Politico-administrative system of the agency has been destroyed by the recently

experienced conflict


Q.14 Absence of concerted development efforts facilitated the inducement of

terrorism born conflict


Q.15 Continuous socio-economic neglect by successive governments multiplied the

terrorism instituted conflict


Q.16 Absence of effective border control mechanism exacerbated the terrorist

activities resulting into conflict


Q.17 Lack of sufficient water and sanitation schemes caused deprivation multiplying

the intensity of conflict


Q.18 Lack of advanced education facilities indirectly contributed to the phenomenon

of conflict


232

Q.19 Absence of technical or skill development centers added to the youth

unemployment that consequently promoted conflict


Q.20 Non-existent advanced health facilities contributed to the feelings of neglect

adding to the conflict


Q.21 Insufficient banking facilities coupled with absence of development loans

required to engage unemployed youth added to the conflict


Part II

Q.1 Process of tribal consultation is extremely important for successful execution of

post conflict rehabilitation projects


Q.2 Social re-integration of the former terrorists is essential to achieve the long term

rehabilitation objectives


233

Q.3 Revival and restoration of local socio-economic conditions will lead to

successful post conflict rehabilitation


Q.4 Politico-administrative reforms are necessary to achieve the long term

objectives of rehabilitation strategy


Q.5 Development of communication infrastructure is imperative for successful post

conflict rehabilitation process


Q.6 Introducing the trade and business friendly policies are fundamental to the post

conflict rehabilitation strategy


Q.7 Exploration of the local demographic potential is vital for successful post

conflict rehabilitation


Q.8 Process of post conflict economic recovery can be achieved by exploring the

local minerals potential


234

Q.9 Development of minerals trading yard with related technical infrastructure will

assist in economic rehabilitation


Q.10 Revival of local agro based and dairy industries will contribute to the economic

rehabilitation process


Q.11 The establishment of public and private industry will generate employment

opportunities for local youth


Q.12 Exploring the agency water potential will enhance the local agricultural land

required for successful economic rehabilitation


Q.13 Extending loans for small businesses projects will facilitate in post conflict

economic revival of the TDPs


Q.14 Formal de-radicalization programs for ex terrorists are needed to achieve the

long term rehabilitation objectives


235

Q.15 Introducing of state sponsored madrassa reforms are essential to check the

negative social engineering of the local youth


Q.16 Revival of tribal institution of Jirga will help in successful execution of post

conflict rehabilitation measures


Q.17 Development of civic facilities will lead to creation of social harmony needed

for sustained rehabilitation


Q.18 Mainstreaming the local youth by providing needed formal and technical

education facilities to achieve the long term rehabilitation objectives


Q.19 Development of recreational (sports) facilities will help positive social

assimilation of the local youth


Q.20 FCR based politico-administration system of the agency should be abolished for

successful rehabilitation


236

Q.21 Like other settled districts of the country, the system of local governments

should be introduced in the agency

Strongly Agree Agree Don‘t know Disagree Strongly

Disagree

Q.22 The agency population should also be granted the right of access to country‘s

judicial system


Disagree

Q.23 The agency system of law enforcement should be restructured to achieve the

objectives of rehabilitation process


Disagree

Q.24 For successful rehabilitation process an effective border control mechanism

should be installed to arrest the terrorist movements from Afghanistan


Disagree

Source: Researcher‘s Compilation, 2016

237

Annexure N

IMPORTANT MADRASSAS

Serial Madrassa with Location

1. Taleem ul Quran, Darpa Khel, Miranshah

2. Shams ul Uloom, Kam Sarobi, Miranshah

3. Rahimia Taleem ul Quran, Sarai Bazaar, Miranshah

4. Mumba ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

5. Anwar ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

6. Tajweed ul Quran, Danday Darpa Khel

7. Madina tul Uloom, Darpa Khel

8. Dar ul Uloom Rahimia Shahzad Kot, Miranshah

9. Dar ul Uloom Ashrafia, Chashma rd Miranshah

10. Beharat ul Uloom, Khatti Kalay, Miranshah

11. Banaras ul Uloom, Tori Ghundi, Miranshah

12. Anwar ul Uloom, Tori Ghundi, Miranshah

13. Zia ul Uloom Lund Muhammad Khel, Datta Khel

14. Jamia Islamia Jumat Mohmand Khel, Datta Khel

15. Kushaf ul Uloom, Degan

16. Faizan ul Uloom, Kani Rogha, Datta Khel

17. Riaz Ul Uloom, Saidabad, Datta Khel

18. Habiban ul Uloom, Datta Khel

19. Ihsan Ul Madaris, Ghulam Khan

20. Faiz ul Uloom, Saidgai, Ghulam Khan

21. Nusrat ul Uloom, Saidgai Ghulam Khan

22. Zinat Ul Quran, Miranshah Bazaar

238


23. Baghdad ul Uloom, Tapi, Miranshah

24. Dar ul Uloom Islamia Muhammadia, Hamzoni Miranshah

25. Bostan ul Uloom, Boya

26. Riaz ul Uloom Palangzai, Miranshah

27. Qasim ul Uloom, Miranshah

28. Hifz ul Quran, Danday Darpa Khel

29. Meftah ul Uloom, Datta Khel

30. Madrassah with location

31. Nizam ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

32. Siraj ul Uloom Islam, Ahmed Khel Hamzoni, Miranshah

33. Maref ul Uloom, Miranshah

34. Dar ul Arbia, Khatti Killi, Miranshah

35. Hasnaat ul Uloom, Razmak

36. Nats ul Uloom, Razmak

37. Safeena tul Uloom Asad Khel

38. Shams ul Uloom, Piryat

39. Ahya ul Uloom, Gardai, Dosali

40. Dar ul Uloom, Tori Khel

41. Hayat ul Uloom, Dosali

42. Madrassa Jamal Khel, Dosali

43. Shams ul Uloom, Mana

44. Mobalegh ul Uloom, Gurbaz

45. Madrassa Old Dabbar Miami

46. Dar ul Uloom, Saidgai

239


47. Zahir ul Uloom, Saidgai

48. Taleem ul Quran, Darpa Khel, Miranshah

49. Shams ul Uloom, Kam Sarobi, Miranshah

50. Rahimia Taleem ul Quran, Sarai Bazaar, Miranshah

51. Mumba ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

52. Anwar ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

53. Tajweed ul Quran, Danday Darpa Khel

54. Madina tul Uloom, Darpa Khel

55. Dar ul Uloom Rahimia Shahzad Kot, Miranshah

56. Dar ul Uloom Ashrafia, Chashma rd Miranshah

57. Beharat ul Uloom, Khatti Kalay, Miranshah

58. Banaras ul Uloom, Tori Ghundi, Miranshah

59. Anwar ul Uloom, Tori Ghundi, Miranshah

60. Zia ul Uloom Lund Muhammad Khel, Datta Khel

61. Jamia Islamia Jumat Mohmand Khel, Datta Khel

62. Kushaf ul Uloom, Degan

63 Faizan ul Uloom, Kani Rogha, Datta Khel

64. Riaz Ul Uloom, Saidabad, Datta Khel

65. Habiban ul Uloom, Datta Khel

66. Ihsan Ul Madaris, Ghulam Khan

67. Faiz ul Uloom, Saidgai, Ghulam Khan

68. Nusrat ul Uloom, Saidgai Ghulam Khan

69. Zinat Ul Quran, Miranshah Bazaar

70. Baghdad ul Uloom, Tapi, Miranshah

240


71. Dar ul Uloom Islamia Muhammadia, Hamzoni Miranshah

72. Bostan ul Uloom, Boya

73. Riaz ul Uloom Palangzai, Miranshah

74. Qasim ul Uloom, Miranshah

75. Hifz ul Quran, Danday Darpa Khel

76. Meftah ul Uloom, Datta Khel

77. Madrassah with location

78. Nizam ul Uloom, Danday Darpa Khel

79. Siraj ul Uloom Islam, Ahmed Khel Hamzoni, Miranshah

80. Maref ul Uloom, Miranshah

81. Dar ul Arbia, Khatti Killi, Miranshah

82. Hasnaat ul Uloom, Razmak

83. Nats ul Uloom, Razmak

84. Safeena tul Uloom Asad Khel

85. Shams ul Uloom, Piryat

87. Dar ul Uloom, Tori Khel

88. Hayat ul Uloom, Dosali

89. Madrassa Jamal Khel, Dosali

90. Shams ul Uloom, Mana

91. Mobalegh ul Uloom, Gurbaz

92. Madrassa Old Dabbar Miami

93. Dar ul Uloom, Saidgai

94. Zahir ul Uloom, Saidgai


241

Annexure O

EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES

Sub-division Miranshah

laireS Category

School

Total

Boys Girls

1. Degree Colleges 1 1 2

2. High 13 3 16

3. Middle 17 15 32

4. Primary 105 112 217

5. Community 24 34 58

6. Industrial Home - 2 2

7. Mosque 8 - 8

Grand Total 158 167 325

Sub-division Mirali

Serial Category School Total

Boys Girls

1. Degree Colleges 1 - 1

2. High 8 2 10

3. Middle 17 6 23

4. Primary 99 118 217

242

5. Community - 25 25

6. Industrial Home - 2 2

7. Mosque 16 - 16


Sub-division Razmak


Boys Girls

1. High 4 1 5

2. Middle 10 1 11

3. Primary 48 34 82

4. Community - 16 16

5. Mosque 1 - 1


Tehsil Shawal


Boys Girls

1. Middle 1 - 1

2. Community 45 4 49

Grand Total 46 4 50

243

Employed Teaching Staff

Serial Type of

Institutions

No of Institutions Teachers Sanctioned

M F Total M F Total

1. Degree Colleges 2 1 3 51 21 72

2. High Sec 1 - 1 36 - 36

3. Elementary

College

1 - 1 16 - 16

4. Intermediate High

School

- 4 4 - 8 8

5. High Schools 27 6 33 546 78 625

6 Middle Schools 48 24 72 558 190 748

7. Primary Schools 281 284 565 877 648 1525

8. Community 71 82 153 142 164 306

9. Mosque 27 - 27 29 - 29

Grand Total 458 401 859 2255 1110 3365

Employed Teaching Staff

Serial Category Age

Group

(Years)

Students Total

Boys Girls

1. Degree College 15-22 2808 168 2976

2. Higher Secondary 3-21 1047 - 1047

244

School

3. High 3-20 9869 1782 11651

4. Elementary College 19-22 183 - 183

5. Middle 3-16 8072 3021 11093

6. Primary 3-15 20450 16035 36485

7. Community 3-12 4749 4896 9645

8. Mosque 3-12 1682 - 1682

Grand Total 48860 25902 74762


245

Annexure P

HEALTHCARE FACILITIES

Serial Facility Location

Tehsil Miranshah

1. AHQ Hospital Miranshah Miranshah

2. BHU Raghzi Kala Hamzoni

3. BHU Angher Kala Miranshah

4. CHC Khair Mohd Spalgha

5. CHC Fazal Cum-Sarobi

Tehsil Mirali

6. THQ Hospital Mirali

7. Civil Hospital Bichi

8. Civil Hospital Hassu Khel

9. BHU Natasi Area Wazir Natasi

10. BHU Marmandi Khaisoor Khaisoor

11. BHU Shera Talla Madi Khel Wazir Shertalla

12 CHC Abdul Khaliq Kot Zarini Bichi Mirali

13. CHC Rasool Khan Naurak

14. CHC Sakender Nawna

15. CHC Musa Khan Zakar Khel

16. CHC Talib Hussain Hassu Khel

17. CHC Shah Noor Zirrini

18. CHC Naeem Jaleer

19. CHC Janan Ali Khel

20. CHC Khan Muhammad Mobarak Shahi

246


Tehsil Dossali

21. BHU Lake Asad Khel Wazir Asad Khel

22. CHC Qadrin Qadrin

23. CHC Atif Kot Atif Kot

24. CHC Mohammad Awas Kohapari

25. CHC Noor Muhammad Paryat

Tehsil Ramak

26. Civil Hospital Razmak Razmzk


27. BHU Bora Khel Razmak Wazir Razmak

28. BHU Nawal Kot Razmak Wazir Razmak

29. CHC Akram Kot Razmak Wazir Razmak

Tehsil Shewa

30. Civil Hospital Shewa Shewa

31. BHU Adat Khan Kot Wazir

32. BHU Mameet Kot Wazir

33. MCH Shah Nawaz Shewa Drozanda

Tehsil Datta Khel

34. Civil Hospital Boya Boya

35. BHU Lattaka Mada Khel Wazir Lattka

36. CHC Hussain (Mada Khel) Small Khel

37. CHC Said Muhammad Ida Khel

38. CHC Zar Muhammad Muhammad Khel

39. CHC Muhammad Ayoub Mami Rogha

247


40. CHC Gul Jabar Mami Rogha

41 CHC Darwasti Khadar Khel Darwasti

Tehsil spinwam

42. BHU Hassan Khel Wazir Spinwam

43. BHU T.T Madda Khel Wazir Spinwam

44. MCH Abdul Hamid Spinwam

45. CHC Muhammad Daud Shamiri

47. CHC Fazal Hakeem Hassan Khel

Tehsil Ghulam Khan

48. BHU Saidgi Ghulam khan

49. CHC Din Dar Dandy Dirdoni

Tehsil Garyum

50. CHC Said Ali Shah Kot Sham

Tehsil Shawal

51. CHC Sana Pir Drainashter

52. CHC Ghafoor Rehman Ghafoor Rehman


248

Annexure Q

FATA SCERATARIAT NOTIFICATION


Building Lives in FATA, p. 21.

249

Annexure R

CITIZEN LOSS COMPENSATION PROGRAM

(FLOW CHART)


Building Lives in FATA, p. 21.

250

POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION ...

Documents