Policy Modelling in Practice Workshop ePolicy Exploitation of Results - Challenges and Opportunities Prince Philip House, London 8 th December 2014 Tony.

Policy Modelling in Practice Workshop

ePolicyExploitation of Results - Challenges and

OpportunitiesPrince Philip House, London

8th December 2014

Tony WoodsPPA Energy

INTRODUCTIONePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

ePolicy – What is it?

ePolicy

An EU FP7 funded project

Aimed at developing tools that support policy making decisions

Dissemination and exploitation is a key part of the project

This presentation will introduce the ePolicy project, and discuss the strategies and obstacles for dissemination and exploitation of the results.

THE ePolicy PROJECTePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

Background

Public policy issues are often extremely complex, occur in rapidly changing and uncertain environments, involve balancing different interests, and managing conflicts between interest groups. Energy policies strongly affect economic development, environmental impacts and social acceptance.More and more emphasis is being given to sustainable energy policies.

ePolicy ProjectePolicy Project:

Funding: EU FP7 STREP Project funded under ICT tools for Governance and Policy ModellingAim: to develop an advanced integrated IT tool to support the decisions of policy makersMethodology: Multi-disciplinary approach, merging global and individual perspectivesCase study: aspects of the Emilia Romagna regional Energy PlanExploitation: Methodology for extending the tools to different applications has been developed.

ePolicy PartnersUniversities:

ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna (Italy)The University of Surrey (UK)Università di Ferrara (Italy)University College Cork (Ireland)

Public Sector:Regione Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Private sector:PPA Energy (UK)

Research Agency:ASTER (Italy)

Research Institutions:INESC Tec, Associate Laboratory (Portugal)Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research (Germany)

ePolicy – How it is made up

Opinion mining

Global optimiser

Incentive design

Social simulator

Visualisations

OPTIMISEINCENTIVE MECHANIS

MS

INCENTIVE POLICY

€

t1 policy per instrument

MW

t trends

Opinions

tenvironment

Quality

t

INCENTIVE MECHANISMS

POLICY TARGET ENERGY MONEY

OPINIONS

POLICY MAKER CITIZENS

ENVIRONMENTAL EXPERT

Global Optimiser

OpinionMining

IncentiveDesign

SocialSimulator

ePolicy Tools

++

---

+0

+1

+2

-1-2

2009 2010 2011 2012

Opinion Mining - Introduction

Opinion Mining - Visualisation

2 -1 -0 -

-1 --2 -

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Solar Panels - General

Categories

Economic Aspect

Environmental Aspect

Technology AspectCategory Score Title Author Date Text

Technology 1 Xxx Xx Xxxxx DATE Xxxx Xxx Xxxx Xx Xxxx

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2 –

1 –

0 –

-1 –

-2 –

Incentive Design and Social Simulator - Introduction

€

€€

Incentive Design and Social Simulator - Visualisation

Installed Capacity (Cumulative)500-400-300-200-100-

0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

MW

Costs (per year)400M-

0-

-400M-

-800M- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall

Euro

Participant Rates (per year)80k-60k-40k-20k-

0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall

Global Optimiser- IntroductionList of activities with:• Costs• Impacts• Environment

al Impacts

• Required Energy• Budget• Constraints• Targets

OPTIMISED PLANS

Global Optimiser- VisualisationImpacts on EnvironmentCompare Plans

Energy Cost

Plan 1-

Plan 2-

Plan 3-

3.45k

1.77k

2.61k

12.0B

6.09B

9.05B

MW Euro

Compare Plans by Energy Source

Energy Cost

Solar PV

Hydro

Solar Thermal

ThermalBiomass

Wind

1k 2k kTOE Euro4B 8B

Where we are now

Now in the final months of the project:

ePolicy has developed tools that support policy making decisions

These are currently focused on the policy of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy for regional planning and for designing incentives for fostering the adoption of renewable energy, specifically photovoltaics

However, the tools and knowledge developed have potential applications far beyond this

POTENTIAL APPLICATIONSePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

HIGHER SCALE: National and EU

LOWER SCALE: Province and Municipality

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE RER ENERGY PLAN

RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOROTHER SECTORS

ePolicy Tool: RER Energy plan

Renewable Energy

Potential Extensions to the Tools

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Using the tools at a higher scaleThis includes at the :

EU levelNational level

The DSS would need to be tailored for various policy structures

For example ePolicy tools could be used to:

EU: Develop high level renewable energy targets, taking account of Sustainable Development Indicators

National: Identify which technologies should be developed and the incentives to support them

Using the tools in other regionsIncluding:

Within Italy, where there are policy structures similar to RERElsewhere, allowing for varied policy structures

Elements of the system would need to be changed, for example:

DSS: tailored to the policy structure of the target region

Social Simulator: tuned to the characteristics of the new population

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Using the tools at a lower scaleAt a lower scale including:

Provinces, countiesMunicipalities, citiesTowns, villages

The aim may be a detailed understanding of the optimal balance of resources and interventions

Provincial and municipality level policy structures are likely to be similar to the regional ones

The changes to the tool would be the same as using it in other regions

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Using the tools in other policy areas

Examples:TransportEducationHealthHousing

Required changes will depend on the structure of the specific policy planPlans are likely to include the following:

Existing situation and previous plansObjectives and StrategiesPriorities and interventionsImplementation and Monitoring

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Using the tools for other parts of the RER Energy Plan

An example of this could be energy efficiency

In both the renewable energy and energy efficiency policy areas: Numerous possible measures existThere are many barriers to implementationSeveral potential instruments to incentivise adoption can be devised

It is likely that the tools can be tailored to this application with only a small amount of effort

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Using the tools for private sector applications

Examples could includeLoad Control ProgrammesProduct Design DecisionsEnvironmental assessment

HIGHER SCALE

LOWER SCALE

OTHER POLICY AREAS

PRIVATE SECTOR

OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN

Load Control Programmes:

Support the balance of electricity supply and demand

Service providers may introduce incentives to encourage usage behavior

Strategies could be optimised using tools based on ePolicy.

USING ePolicy KNOWLEDGEePolicy: Exploitation of Results – Challenges and Opportunities

Telling People About ePolicy

Dissemination to the scientific community

Dissemination to the Public

Stakeholders involvement

Engaging Potential Users

Stakeholder Events, for example: The Constraint Programming, Artificial Intelligence and Operations Research (CPAIOR) conference (Cork), and Samos Summit (Greece)

Networking with the existing contacts of the ePolicy team: Italian policy makers: Emilia Romagna regional government, Italian Ministry of Economic DevelopmentUK policy makers: Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) ENELPrivate Sector – Yachts

Using ePolicy Knowledge: HurdlesThere are many potential barriers to exploitation of the ePolicy tools including:

Access to the right people

Acceptance

Technical

Tool usability and accessibility

Project scope, effort and funding required

Identification of future development opportunities

Further uses of the ePolicy tools discussed

Uses at a higher scaleDECC: Discussions about developing a social simulator for PV in the UK

Other policy areasDistributing Structural FundsScenario evaluation and Strategic Environmental Assessment

Usage in business modelsUsing the ePolicy methodology to define business models and pricing arrangements for ENEL in a new EU project called DAREED

Confidential discussions with others

In summary………The ePolicy team has developed powerful new tools aimed at helping the policy decision making processThe tools and capability developed are relevant for all areas of policy making and beyondWe are telling stakeholders and academics about these tools wherever possibleWe are demonstrating the toolsThe aim is to find ways to take the development and application of these tools forwardHowever there are barriers to overcomeIf you would like to know more talk to a member of the ePolicy team

If you would like to discuss ePolicy further, or would like to see a demonstration of the system, please come and find Tony or Olivia