Policy Bangladesh Vol XII Issue 4 Quarterly - cpd.org.bd · Chairman of Mymensingh Sadar Upazila Parishad, Mr Faizur Rahman Fakir ... Centre, Switzerland; Mr Rashid S Kaukab, Director,

October-December 2013Vol XII Issue 4

the editor's deskOne of the traditional areas

of CPD’s research endeavours concerns trade, regional cooperation

and global integration. Under this programme, along with conducting

trade-related research, CPD strives to monitor developments in the multilateral trading regime, as

epitomised by the WTO, from the perspectives of Bangladesh and the LDCs. In order to highlight the concerns and interests of both, CPD has conducted research and organised national, regional and global events on relevant issues at home and abroad where senior CPD professionals have participated as part of CPD’s activities in these areas.

It may be mentioned in this context that earlier CPD had convened International Civil Society Forums in Dhaka on the eve of the LDC Ministerial Meetings in Cancún and Hong Kong, and also organised events on the sidelines of the WTO Ministerial Conferences in partnership with other think tanks and civil society organisations in the two cities. LDC IV Monitor and the Southern Voice on the Post-MDG International Development Goals, two global initiatives being hosted by CPD, also have strong trade focus. CPD’s trade-related publications are rich reference materials reflecting the scholarship developed on the subject.

In continuation of its trade-related interest, CPD organised an International Conference in Dhaka prior to the WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali, Indonesia in December 2013. The main objective of hosting the event was to articulate the priorities of LDCs, discuss concrete deliverables LDCs hoped to secure in Bali and to strategise how best to achieve those. The outcome document with concrete recommendations emerging from the Conference was widely disseminated and shared with negotiators.

CPD senior professionals took an active part in various fora on the sidelines of MC9, as organisers and as Chairs, Panellists and Discussants. CPD also organised a dialogue titled “Integrating Trade Issues in Post-2015 International Development Framework: Ongoing Debates and Potential Opportunities,” as part of the Bali Trade and Development Symposium (TDS).

On return from Bali, CPD senior researchers debriefed the media in Dhaka on the outcome of the MC9 and shared their experience and assessment as regards the key decisions of the MC9. They highlighted what the outcomes meant for Bangladesh and LDCs, and the homework that needed to be undertaken in this regard.

Trade issues are becoming increasingly important for the globalising economy of Bangladesh and CPD hopes to continue with its research, dialogue and outreach activities in the relevant areas in future.

Dialogue on Bangladesh in Crisis: Citizens’ ConcernsStop violence, postpone election, continue discussion

(Continued on page 6)

Quarterly

Centre forPolicyDialogueBangladesh

The overwhelming majority of discussants at the dialogue expressed reservations concerning the National Election without all major political parties’ participation and urged to defer the election slated for 5 January 2014.

The eminent citizens also pressed for immediate cessation of violence all across the country ahead of the polls, arising from the major political parties’ disagreement over the national election and poll-time government.

The civil society called for designing a roadmap to an inclusive election by formulating an acceptable package solution through further discussion to resolve upcoming challenges centring the election-time government.

The observations emerged from the dialogue organised by CPD in partnership with Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), Sushasoner Jonno Nagorik (SHUJAN) and Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) at the Lakeshore Hotel in Dhaka, on 28 December 2013.

Moderated by CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, the dialogue aimed at raising voices of citizens from all corners towards resolving the prevailing political stalemate. Chair of the dialogue Professor Rehman Sobhan, Chairman, CPD stressed that elections have to be free, fair and inclusive for the legitimacy of a democratic government.

According to Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman, Former Advisor to the Caretaker Government, the majority of citizens was in favour of deferment of such an undemocratic election. Barrister Rafiqul Haque, a renowned jurist and Professor Asif Nazul of Department of Law, Dhaka University, shared the same concern that the polls can be deferred up to 90 days even after the dissolution of the Ninth Parliament within the constitutional framework. The barrister further mentioned that 154 candidates had been already elected

uncontested whereas according to the constitution, parliament members must be directly elected by the people.

Urging to reconstitute the Election Commission due to its low credibility, Mr Mahfuz Anam, Editor and Publisher, The Daily Star, opined that with the help of the President, the effective Ninth Parliament should convene to ascertain the head of an all-party election-time government.

As the Government’s spokesperson, Mr Rashed Khan Menon, MP, Hon’ble Minister for Post and Telecommunications, however, stressed that the countrywide crises cannot be resolved without having Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as the chief of the poll-time government.

Barrister Mainul Hosein, Former Advisor to the Caretaker Government held the view that democracy was compromised with the 15th Amendment of the Constitution eliminating the non-party caretaker government system.

Prominent educationist Professor Abdullah Abu Sayeed expressed concerns over the difficulty to get rid of a ‘democratic autocracy’ that merely replaced the autocratic government in the 1990s. He also recommended establishing a two-layer parliamentary system aiming to decentralise power.

From the opposition, Ambassador Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury, BNP Vice Chairman, criticised the ruling party’s stance over cornering the opposition and ignoring its demands. He opined that further constitutional amendment could make poll-time government system acceptable to all parties.

Professor Anisuzzaman, Chairman, Bangla Academy and Member, CPD Board of Trustees, insisted on a meaningful dialogue between top leaders of the major parties as bloody violence, arson and

Eminent citizens from all segments of the society widely participated in the discussion

CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE (CPD) � A CIVIL SOCIETY THINK TANK

CPD Quarterly 2 October - December 2013

Local government in Bangladesh must have proper devolution of authority to ensure good governance, transparency and accountability, instead of only attempting to decentralise the central government, speakers at a dialogue observed.

A CPD study undertaken in collaboration with the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), Norway, found that nearly two-third residents of the country’s municipalities and city corporations are dissatisfied with civic amenities, while 63 per cent are aware of corrupt practices in development projects led by local authorities.

Politicisation of city corporations and municipalities’ affairs is one of the reasons behind their underperformance, noted the study titled “The Unheard Voices: Citizen’s Perceptions on the State of Governance and Service Delivery in Municipalities (Pourashavas) and City Corporations in Bangladesh.”

The keynote study was unveiled at the dialogue on “Local Government Financing: Global Experience and Local Reality,” at the BRAC Centre Inn on 5 October 2013.

While presenting the keynote, CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya stressed that poor service was mainly due to blanket control on government funds, financial constraints of local authorities, lack of mayors’ commitment, councillors and municipality officers; corruption of contractors and elected representatives. Formation of new municipalities did not benefit poor people, professionals and businessmen other than the landowners, he added.

Chairman of Mymensingh Sadar Upazila Parishad, Mr Faizur Rahman Fakir informed that about 90 per cent of local government’s finance comes from the government and the rest are collected locally despite having the opportunity to

collect the full amount locally. Professor Md Tofazzal Islam Chowdhury, Mayor of Nabiganj Pourashava in Habiganj, said that his municipality is under control of the government agencies that substantially affect the process of obtaining approval for projects, expenditure and implementation.

Chief Guest Mr H T Imam, Advisor for Public Administration Affairs to the Hon’ble Prime Minister, recalled that the local governments have gone through

sporadic changes over time since 1972. He called for proper devolution through establishing local government commissions so that the locales become responsible for collecting fund, tax and allocating resources in their respective areas in order to facilitate and expedite service delivery.

Favouring autonomy and capacity building of the local bodies, Guest of Honour Dr A M M Shawkat Ali, Former Advisor to the Caretaker Government, urged the public to hold the local leaders accountable for their work and the local governance for transparency.

Two other keynotes titled “Fiscal Decentralisation in Developing Countries: Challenges and Prospects” and “Devolutionary Delusions? The Effect of Decentralization on Corruption” were presented by CMI Senior Researchers Dr Odd-Helge Fjeldstad and Dr Arne Wiig respectively to enlighten discussants as regards global perspectives on contemporary local governance.

Chaired by Mr M Syeduzzaman, Member, CPD Board of Trustees, the dialogue was addressed by Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD; Professor Zarina Rahman Khan and Professor Akhter Hossain, Department of Public Administration, University of Dhaka; Professor Amirul Islam Chowdhury, School of Business, United International University among others.

Dhaka Int’l Conference Outcome informs of LDCs’ concerns(from page 3)deliverables of a possible ‘LDC package’ at the Bali MC9.

Designated speakers at the dialogue included Mr Shanker Das Bairagi, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of Nepal to the WTO; Mr Carlos A Primo Braga, Professor of International Political Economy at IMD Business School, Switzerland; Mr Cheikh Tidiane Dieye, Coordinator, Trade, Regional Integration & Development, Enda Tiers Monde, Senegal; Mr Nicolas Imboden, Executive Director, IDEAS

UK; and Professor Rorden Wilkinson, International Political Economy, University of Manchester, UK.

Apart from organising the dialogue, the CPD delegation comprising Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director; Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya; Dr Fahmida Khatun, Research Director and Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director participated at other forums organised by prominent international organisations and civil society actors.

Centre, Switzerland; Mr Rashid S Kaukab, Director, CUTS International, Switzerland; Mr Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz, Chief Executive, ICTSD, Switzerland; Ms Jane Seruwagi Nalunga, Country Director, Southern and Eastern African Trade Information and Negotiations Institute, Kampala, Uganda; Mr Posh Raj Pandey, Executive Chairman, SAWTEE, Nepal; Mr Cyrus Rustomjee, Director: Economic Affairs Division, Commonwealth Secretariat; Mr Dirk Willem te Velde, Investment and Growth Programme, ODI,

Not mere decentralisation, devolution of authority must for good governanceCPD-CMI Dialogue on local government financing told

The dialogue shed light into the status of local municipalities and city corporations in Bangladesh

A delegation from China Center for Contemporary World Studies (CCCWS) exchanged views with CPD researchers on China-South Asia cooperation,

China-Bangladesh relationship and bilateral think tank cooperationon 8 October 2013

An eight-member Chinese delegation met with CPD senior researchers to discuss implementation challenges of the proposed economic corridor linking Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) on 14 October 2013.

Diplomats and development partners attended a Consultation on Framing and Delivery of CPD’s Research and Outreach Plan at the Westin Hotel in Dhaka, on 13 November 2013.

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Meetings





Bangladesh should carefully examine the implications of Bali MC9 outcomes and work towards addressing the attendant concerns, recommended CPD senior researchers while debriefing the media after returning from the Bali MC9.

The event at the CPD office on 9 December 2013 disseminated an assessment of how the WTO decisions at Bali would translate into implications for Bangladesh.

In her presentation, Dr Fahmida Khatun, Research Director, CPD identified the major implications for Bangladesh, originating from the three areas on which the Bali discussion was focused – Development and LDC Issues, Trade Facilitation and Agriculture and Cotton.

Bangladesh’s concerns as regards duty-free quota free (DF-QF) market

access were not adequately addressed at Bali, she opined. Unless DF-QF obligation is legally binding with concrete timeframe, Bangladesh will not receive any additional benefit as its major export item RMG is on the ‘3 per cent exclusion list’ of the US, she explained.

She felt that to what extent preferential rules of origin will be LDC-friendly, will depend on the post-Bali work programme and what transpires in the subsequent negotiations. CPD proposed that the Rules of Origin as defined under the Canadian Generalized System

of Preference scheme – a 25 per cent local value addition requirement – could serve as a simple, general criterion that improves market access for LDCs.

A number of leading scholars and trade experts stressed on ways and means to best embed trade issues in the post-MDG development discourse at the dialogue “Integrating Trade Issues in Post-2015 International Development Framework: Ongoing Debates and Potential Opportunities.”

The dialogue was organised as part of the Bali Trade and Development Symposium (TDS) on the side line of the WTO MC9 on 5 December 2013.

Given the stalemate in WTO negotiation, the role of multilateral trading system in shaping the post-2015 trade agenda was discussed in the session. The session also addressed the importance of the trade-related issues which came out of post-2015 international development discourse, with a special attention on

investment, finance, Aid for Trade (AfT) and technology related issues; major trade related concerns of vulnerable economies including LDCs in the context of post-2015 agenda.

The dialogue was jointly organised by ICTSD, The Commonwealth, SAWTEE, Southern Voice on Post-MDG International Development Goals and LDC IV Monitor.

Alongside the dialogue, CPD also disseminated the Dhaka Outcome Document among key

stakeholders including WTO negotiators, LDC Ministers and important stakeholders at the Bali MC9.

The purpose of the document was to raise awareness among major stakeholders as regards issues of interest to the LDCs and articulate key

Bangladesh, as a member of the least developed countries (LDCs), would benefit from the upcoming Ninth WTO Ministerial if the Meeting decides to grant waiver on services and rules of origin (RoO) respectively facilitating preferential market access for LDC services and exports.

The LDCs should convene and identify common concerns to collaboratively maximise their benefits from the WTO Doha negotiations to be held in Bali, Indonesia on 3-6 December 2013, observed speakers at the International Conference in Dhaka.

CPD hosted the meet during 25-26 October 2013 to highlight interests of the LDCs in the context of the MC9 in Bali. Two Panels and four thematic sessions titled “Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access,” “Food Security and Cotton, Trade Facilitation,” “Operationalisation of Services Waiver for the LDCs,” and “Systemic

Issues and the Way Forward,” reviewed the state of negotiations in Geneva, discussed LDC concerns in this regard and identified the key deliverables in Bali with respect to issues of heightened interest to the LDCs.

The event’s co-organisers were The Commonwealth, London; Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), Bangladesh Office; ICTSD and IDEAS Centre, Geneva; SAWTEE, Kathmandu and Think Tank Initiative (TTI), Ottawa.

In the concluding session, Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD presented a draft outcome document based on the discussions and recommendations from the conference, which articulated the key deliverables in Bali. It proposed strengthening monitoring mechanism in the WTO to expedite implementation

G M Quader, MP, Hon'ble Minister for Commerce addressed the inaugural session

Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD chaired and moderated the dialogue

Bangladesh will need to do the necessary homework to identify sectors and modes of interest keeping in view the proposed High Level Meeting next year, said CPD researchers

International Conference in DhakaUpcoming Ninth WTO Ministerial (MC9): Securing the LDCs Deliverables

CPD Dialogue as a Bali MC9 side eventDhaka Int’l Conference outcome informs of LDCs’ concerns

Media BriefingBali outcome of the WTO: What it means for Bangladesh


The Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference (WTO MC9)



The analysis was part of an eight-country study that assessed AfT flows’ impact on trade performance

The effectiveness of AfT in terms of alignment, coherence and impact on some key areas was discouraging in Bangladesh although it was designed under WTO to support trade-related capacity building for strengthening LDCs’ global integration.

Discussants proposed that AfT should address second generation issues such as the importance of strategic trade policy, role of FDI, formulation of regional projects under AfT, donor coordination and AfT’s role in global value chain etc.

These observations emerged from the CPD dialogue on “Aid for Trade: Second Generation Issues for Bangladesh,” co-organised with International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD), Geneva, at the BRAC Centre Inn Auditorium in Dhaka, on 24 October 2013.

The study titled “Effectiveness and Impact of Aid for Trade Initiative in Bangladesh,” followed a common methodology developed by the Nepalese think tank South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SAWTEE), Kathmandu.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, Research Director, CPD noted that towards Bangladesh’s socio-economic development, AfT addressed some significant supply-side constraints and contributed to enhance export competitiveness in a few key sectors including the RMG. Drawing on the study, she noted that AfT projects, however, could not adequately involve private actors in formulation, implementation and monitoring processes.

The study revealed that Bangladesh has experienced a slow progress in AfT inflow despite an increasing volume of its support since 2002 at the global level. She showed that during 2002-2011, AfT flow to Bangladesh has been declining in the key areas of infrastructure development and capacity building, which constitutes

97 per cent of the AfT fund. During 2006-2011, the flow declined by 28.68 per cent against the global annual growth of 67 per cent.

Dr Khatun identified inefficient administrative mechanism, inadequate human resource, political instability and donors’ stringent requirements as major drawback for lacklustre AfT inflows. She stressed establishing an AfT Cell similar to the Aid Effectiveness Unit at Economic Relations Division, and mainstreaming trade policies in national development policies.

Discussants also emphasised on involving the private sector in

identifying projects under AfT and strengthening institutions dealing with trade policies and establishing domestic ownership of the trade agenda.

While sharing views on a wide range of AfT issues, CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, as the Special Commentator at the dialogue, emphasised the importance of concessional loans from development partners in improving local infrastructure, which is perceived as a major driver of the country’s economy.

Dr Md Mozibur Rahman, Chief Executive Officer, Bangladesh Foreign Trade Institute (BFTI) and Ambassador Dr Toufiq Ali, Former Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to the WTO and UN Agencies in Geneva were present at the event as the Chief Guest and the Guest of Honour respectively.

The event was also addressed by Mr Christophe Bellmann, Programme Director, ICTSD; Distinguished Panellists Dr Sanjay Kathuria, Lead Economist, Regional Integration, South Asia Region, The World Bank, Washington D.C.; Dr Mostafa Abid Khan, Director, Programme, Research and Policy Advocacy, BFTI; Mr Sabur Khan, President, DCCI and Mr Fazlul Haque, Former President, BKMEA among others.

CPD-ICTSD Dialogue on Aid for TradeAfT impact in Bangladesh mixed, next generation issues need attention

Upcoming Ninth WTO Ministerial(from page 3)of full DF-QF; urged commitment to the provision of technical and financial support for implementing a trade facilitation agreement; and effective operationalisation of the services waiver to enable LDCs to have commercially meaningful market access in the developed country services markets.

The conference sought strong commitment from the WTO Member countries for not imposing any export restrictions on foodgrains to the LDCs, particularly during food shortages and price volatility. Representatives from the African LDCs demanded reduction of US subsidy on cotton production to minimise uneven competition in global cotton trade.

Trade experts observed that this time the LDC Ministers did not hold a preparatory meeting prior to WTO MC9 which may have adverse implications in terms of safeguarding LDC interest due to lack of coordination among them.

Ambassador Steffen Smidt, Special Representative of Denmark to the WTO, also Facilitator to the TNC Chairman on LDC issues for the WTO Bali Ministerial Conference, said that WTO Members have agreed to hold a high-level meeting to provide preferential market access to LDC service suppliers, once the LDCs table a collective request identifying their priority exports and modes of supply of interest to them.

Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD pointed out that two important issues DF-QF and cotton are likely to remain unresolved in the Bali MC9 despite the demand for full duty waiver for LDCs as promised in the Sixth WTO Ministerial in 2005.

Mr Md Shahidul Haque, Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs addressed the closing session as Chief Guest. The conference was also addressed by panellists, designated speakers and presenters including H E Mr Eloi Laourou, Ambassador and Deputy Permanent Representative, Embassy and Permanent Mission of Benin in Geneva; Dr Noah Patrick Kouback, Counselor, Embassy of the Republic of Vanuatu to the European Union and the Kingdom of Belgium; Ambassador Nicolas Imboden, Executive Director, Ideas Centre, Geneva; Mr Christophe Bellmann, Programmes Director, ICTSD; Ms Kimberly Ann Elliott, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development, Washington, D.C.; Dr Hoseana Bohela Lunogelo, Executive Director, Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam; Ms Mary-Theresa Motebang, Director of Trade, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Government of Lesotho; Mr Simon Ng’ona, Country Coordinator, CUTS International, Lusaka; Ms Jane Seruwagi Nalunga, Country Director, Southern and Eastern African Trade Information and Negotiations Institute; Dr Posh Raj Pandey, Executive Chairman, SAWTEE; Ambassador Dr Toufiq Ali, Former Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to WTO and UN Agencies; Mr Taufiqur Rahman, Counsellor, Development Division, WTO; Dr Mohammad A. Razzaque, Adviser and Head, International Trade and Regional Cooperation, The Commonwealth.

A team of Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers in a meeting with CPD senior researchers during their visit on 25 November 2013.



CPD released the report on the occasion of its global launch on the same day

LDCs need greater policy emphasis on employment generation as a central development objective to create as many as 16 million jobs a year for new entrants to the labour market, underscored UNCTAD’s Least Developed Countries Report 2013.

Formulating an expansive credit policy, boosting the private sector, accelerating public investment in infrastructure and improving education are of critical importance for employment generation, noted the report titled “Growth with Employment for Inclusive and Sustainable Development,” revealed a media briefing at CPD office on 20 November 2013.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, presented the major findings and recommendations of the report including a comparative analysis of Bangladesh’s performance with respect to other LDCs based on the report. She highlighted that Bangladesh’s GDP growth over 6.2 per cent during 2002-2008, total remittance influx amounting to USD 4,328 million during 2000-2008, and performance in the area of demographic dynamics and employment trends were found to be impressive in contrast to other LDCs.

According to the report, Bangladesh performed well in the Economic Vulnerability Index with a score of 32.4 which was well below the required score at 38 to graduate from LDCs. However, Bangladesh was 12 points below

the desired level to reach the benchmark for Human Assets Index. The report estimated Bangladesh’s real GDP growth to stand at 6.0 per cent.

Boosting rural economy, raising investment-GDP ratio, improving electricity supply and transport to enable LDC economies to increase variety and value of goods and services were also of heightened emphasis in the report.

The report outlined a framework for Linking Employment Creation and Development of Productive Capacities in the LDCs which identified slower economic growth as an impediment to job generation.

Decline in exports and commodity prices are beginning to pose difficulties for the LDCs while the recent slowdown in world trade would have further negative impacts on the LDCs’ outlook, the report cautioned. It added that the LDCs’ economic progress did not translate into increasing level of employment corresponding to a relatively high GDP growth during 2002-2008.

The annual flagship publication also came up with a number of policy recommendations on macroeconomic strategies, external sector management, state-led employment creation and policies to foster entrepreneurship. It recommended that macroeconomic policies need to be reoriented, away from a single-minded focus on price stability and budget balance and towards a strategy that is more focused on growth with sustainable employment generation.

Bali Outcome of the WTO(from page 3)

The decision as regards operationalisation of the services agreement meant a good opportunity for Bangladesh to increase her export of semi-skilled and skilled manpower related to the garments sector, construction sector, business process outsourcing, care industry and education sector.

Highlighting some of the points of interest to Bangladesh, Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD said that a rule-based multilateral trading system is important for Bangladesh and other relatively weak economies. A failure in Bali would have meant that bigger economies would get more opportunities to dictate global trade rules through mega blocs.

Political Business Cycle(from page 8)

The CPD analysis of the closing data for FY2013 and early signals of FY2014 exposed both upside opportunities and downside risks facing the Bangladesh economy at the current juncture. It mentioned that areas such as export earnings and growth, forex from remittance, FDI and balance of payments maintained their resilience in FY2013.

However, the analyses cautioned about a falling GDP growth below 6.0 due to PBC and termed 2013 as the worst year for banking, prompted by corruption in bank management, financial scams and rising non-performing loans - which was further worsened by high government borrowing. It also noted that political instability has caused stagnancy in overall economic performance, including shortfall in revenue collection; negative trend in investment and import

duties; and fall in crop production in FY2013 with a probable risk affecting food autarky which may lead to food import in FY2014.

Performance of a number of indicators deteriorated in the first quarter of FY2014, including inflation; ADP realisation; remittance inflow and foreign aid utilisation, revealed the analyses, summarising that the economy did not manage to make any significant shift towards a higher growth trajectory.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD recalled that CPD’s immediate reaction to FY2014 Budget earlier in June 2013 had termed fiscal framework to be the weakest link in the FY2014 Budget. According to the analyses revealed at the media briefing, subsequent developments have proved CPD’s analyses to be correct, he observed.

Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD moderated the

discussion on “Taking Advantage of Duty Free Market Access Offer

of India to Bangladesh: Addressing the Challenges and Realising

the Potential Opportunities” at CPD Office

on 21 December 2013

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director, CPD

moderated the discussion on “Tax Policy and Enterprise

Development in South Asia: Bangladesh Case Study”

at CPD Office on 1 December 2013

Media Briefing on UNCTAD LDCs Report 2013Employment generation for durable economic progress

Professor Rahman also highlighted that trade facilitation measures were important for reducing transaction costs and raising competitiveness of Bangladesh economy. He, however, felt that Bangladesh’s needs in trade facilitation areas could be appropriately addressed only if additional support through Aid for Trade or a dedicated trade faciliation support window was put in place under the ambit of the WTO.

Referring to the cotton issue, Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director, mentioned that the impact of higher cotton prices on final price of clothing was likely to be rather low since price of cotton comprised only a small percentage of final price of apparels.

Focus Group Discussions

Bangladesh-India Trade

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Major Research Activities during October – December 2013Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD) As part of IRBD, CPD carried out a study titled “Bangladesh Economy in FY2014: Three Months after the Budget, Three Months before the Election” in October 2013. This was prepared with a view to get an overview of the current state of the Bangladesh economy, built on the preceding studies produced under the IRBD programme including the Second Interim Report FY2013 and CPD’s immediate response to the National Budget for FY2014. It considered the year closing figures of FY2013, reconsidered the starting benchmarks of FY2014 and anticipated their implications for budgetary targets for the fiscal year.First Biennial Report of LDC IV MonitoringThe study is a part of assessing the international commitments undertaken in the Istanbul Plan of Action (IPoA) under LDC IV Monitor. CPD has contributed with five chapters of the report, one of which will deal with the cross-cutting issues with regard to implementation of IPoA. This study also includes four separate chapters where four designated teams of CPD researchers will assess the progress in four areas under the theme titled ‘Mobilising Resources for Development and Capacity Building of the LDCs’. These include taxation, foreign direct investment, overseas development assistance and remittances. The final report is expected to be launched in December 2013.

Outcome Document of the International Conference on Upcoming Ninth WTO Ministerial in Bali: Securing the LDCs Deliverables The Dhaka Outcome Document was the result of deliberations at the pre-Bali international conference titled “Upcoming Ninth WTO Ministerial: Securing the LDCs Deliverables”, which was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, during 25-26 October, 2013. The purpose of this document was to raise awareness among major stakeholders as regards issues of interest to the least developed countries and articulate key deliverables of a possible ‘LDC package’ at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference (MC9) in Bali, Indonesia, during 3-6 December 2013. It is hoped that LDC policymakers will benefit from this document while pursuing the cause of the LDCs in the WTO.Southern Voice on Post-MDGsIn addition to six previous research grants, four more researchers have been awarded under the under Southern Voice on Post-MDG initiative to service one of the objectives laid out in its programme document. The concerned objective seeks to create a platform for the Southern think thanks to use their existing research to inform the post-2015 global development agenda. In this connection, Southern Voice intends to develop a process of re-interpretation of existing relevant outputs of its network members so as to produce academic articles and policy papers as contributions to the post-MDG discourse.

Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director� Was the Special Guest at Stakeholders Workshop on “Improving

Working Conditions in the RMG Sector,” organised by Ministry of Labour and Employment and ILO, on 22 October 2013.

� Chaired the session “Improving Workers and Consumer Welfare-Skills and Literacy, Labor and Work Safety” at a Workshop on Bangladesh Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, organised by Ministry of Commerce and World Bank, on 23 October 2013.

� Chaired the session “Benefits and Constrains to HYV//Hybrid Rice Seeds Trade and Knowledge Sharing between Bangladesh and India” at an International Conference titled Addressing Barriers to Rice Seeds Trade between India and Bangladesh, organised by Unnayan Shamannay and CUTS International, on 22 December 2013.

Fahmida Khatun, Research Director� Lectured on “Women, Gender, Development and Empowerment of

Women in Bangladesh,” organised by Defence Services Command and Staff College, as part of MSc in Military Studies programme at Bangladesh University of Professionals, on 4 November 2013.

� Was a Discussant at Plenary Session on “International Banking, Sustainable Finance and Information Technology” at Annual Banking Conference 2013, organised by Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) during 24-25 November 2013.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director� Was a Discussant at a seminar on Mv‡g©›Um kÖwgK‡`i gRywi e„w×i Av‡›`vjb:

cÖvmw½K we‡ePbv, organised by Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) and Socialist Party of Bangladesh (SCB), on 7 October 2013.

Muhammad Al Amin, Senior Research Associate� Participated at an International Conference titled Addressing Barriers to

Rice Seeds Trade between India and Bangladesh, organised by Unnayan Shamannay and CUTS International, on 22 December 2013.

Naimul Gani Saif, Research Associate� Participated in a Capacity Building Workshop for Trade Research on

Trade Flows and Trade Policy Analysis, jointly organised by WTO, UNESCAP, ARTNeT and Bangladesh Foreign Trade Institute, during 7-11 October 2013, in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

CPD Professionals in National Fora

Citizens’ Concerns(from page 1)sabotage in the name of political programme have devastated public life, economy and education.

Business leaders and industrialists drew attention to the economic cost of political unrest and violence, which, they cautioned, was tarnishing Bangladesh’s achievements. Mr Tapan Chowdhury and MCCI President Ms Rokia Afzal Rahman, both Former Advisors to the Caretaker Government; Mr Annisul Huq, Immediate past President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Mr Tabith M Awal, Deputy CEO, Multimode Group, pointed to the damage inflicted on the economy, particularly the

RMG, and agriculture sectors and local enterprises.TIB Executive Director Dr Iftekharuzzaman said

that both the opposition and the ruling party leaders were turning a blind eye to the risks they have put the general people and democracy into, with their obstinate political stances.

The dialogue also encompassed debates on ending confrontational politics and blame game; reviving democratic practices, rule of law; enabling environment for young leadership in the political arena; upholding spirit of the Liberation War and continuation of the war crime trial.

� Khatun, F. 2013. Aid for trade: How to improve its effectiveness. The Daily Star, 24 October.

� Bhattacharya, D. and Khan, T.I. 2013. MDGs in the LDCs: Six Lessons for Post-2015. The Daily Star, 31 October.

� Rahman, M. 2013. RMG sector: navigating the challenging times ahead. The Daily Star, 3 November.

� Sobhan, R. 2013. ivR‰bwZK †MvôxZš¿ I MYZ‡š¿i fwel¨Z. Prothom Alo. 6 November.

Publications from outside of CPD(from page 8)

� Rahman, M. 2013. iƒcvšÍ‡ii Rb¨ Av‡jvwKZ „̀wófw½ I bZzb fvebv `iKvi. Prothom Alo, 6 November.

� Khatun, F. 2013. Services waiver for LDCs in the WTO: Only a blank promise? The Daily Star, 27 November.

� Khatun, F. 2013. Why and what S&D Treatment for LDCs? Dhaka Tribune, 1 December.

� Khatun, F. 2013. wek¦ evwYR¨ ms ’̄v: Kx wgj‡e evwj m‡¤§jb †_‡K? Prothom Alo, 3 December.

� Khatun, F. 2013. Bali Outcome: Implications for

Bangladesh. The Daily Star, 10 December.� Khatun, F. 2013. South-South cooperation and

changing BD aid scenario. The Financial Express, 19 December.

� Khatun, F. 2013. wek¦ evwYR¨ ms ’̄vi evwj †NvlYv I evsjv‡`‡k Gi Zvrch©. Bonik Barta, 22 December.

� Khatun, F. 2013. we‡`wk FY I Dbœqb. Prothom Alo, 23 December.

� Bhattacharya, D. 2013. ga¨‡gqvw` msK‡Ui c‡_ evsjv‡`k? Prothom Alo, 28 December.

Expert Consultation on Geographical Indications

on Wednesday 20 November 2013 at CPD Office



Rehman Sobhan, Chairman� Delivered a Lecture on “Challenging the Injustice of Poverty: An Agenda for

Inclusive Development in South Asia,” co-sponsored by Blum Center for Developing Economies, as part of CSAS Public Lecture Series, on 11 October 2013, at University of California, Berkeley, USA.

� Was a Discussant on “Redistributive Policies for Reducing Income Inequality” at Expert Group Meeting on Reducing Inequality and Sustainable Development, at UN Secretariat, during 24-25 October 2013, in New York, USA.

� Participated at the High Level Meeting on 2013 Global Human Development Forum on “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World,” at UNDP HD Report Office, on 5 November 2013, in New York, USA.

� Attended a Development Policy Seminar on Designing MDGs for a More Just World at UN Secretariat, on 6 November 2013, in New York, USA.

Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director� Was a Panellist at the Inception Meetings of Trade and Transport Facilitation

Audit in South Asia and Promoting Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) for Inclusive, Equitable and Sustainable Development in South Asia, organised by SAWTEE and UNDP APRC, with AusAID, during 1-2 October 2013, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

� Presented the ADB-ADBI Study Connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia Bangladesh Country Study Paper at a Technical Conference on "Connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia," organised by ADB Institute, during 6-7 November 2013, in Manila, Philippines.

� Was a Panellist at UNCTAD-Commonwealth Discussion on “Reflection on Global Trade: From Doha to Bali Ministerial Conference and Beyond” at Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference (WTO MC9), during 3-6 December 2013, in Bali, Indonesia.

� Made a presentation on “BCIM Initiative: How It All Started and Where We Are Now” at an intergovernmental Joint Study Group Meeting on BCIM Economic Corridor, during 18-19 December 2013, in Kunming, China.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow � Made a presentation on “Post-2015 International Development Framework:

Challenges of Implementation” at Seoul Post-2015 Conference: Implementation and Implications, jointly organised by UNDP and the Korean Government, on 7 October 2013, in Seoul, Korea.

� Attended a South Asian Consultation on Making Sustainability the Next Metric: the Post-2015 Development Agenda, organised by Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA), during 6-7 November 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

� Participated at the session “Financing for Development Post-2015” at the International Parliamentary Conference on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, organised by the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association UK, supported by UNDP, on 26 November 2013, in London, UK.

� Addressed “Closing Panel – A New Development Agenda: The Way Forward” at European Development Days, organised by European Commission, on 27 November 2013, in Brussels, Belgium.

� Attended Bali Trade and Development Symposium (TDS) on the side line of WTO MC9, during 3-6 December 2013, in Bali, Indonesia, where he

� Addressed the session “Reviving Multilateral Trade Cooperation”, jointly organised by Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute.� Participated at the session “The Future of Aid for Trade at the WTO,” jointly organised by ODI; The Commonwealth Secretariat and SAWTEE.� Addressed the session “The Way Forward After Bali: Challenges and Opportunities for LDCs” organised by IDEAS Centre.

� Attended High-level Expert Panel Discussion on “Implementing the Global Development Agenda: Asia Pacific Perspectives on Partnerships and Means,” during 10-11 December 2013, in New York, USA.

� Attended UN General Assembly Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals, on 12 December 2013, in New York, USA.

Rehman Sobhan, Mustafizur Rahman, Rounaq Jahan, Distinguished Fellow, and Debapriya Bhattacharya � Attended a Workshop on Unpacking the Data Revolution at the Country Level:

An Early Examination of Candidate Post-2015 Goals, Targets and Indicators, organised by UN Foundation, on 21 November 2013, in New York, USA.

Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Director, Dialogue and Communication� Led a team from the Dialogue and Communication Division for Peer

Exchange Visit to Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), during 24-28 November 2013, in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Fahmida Khatun, Research Director� Participated in a Conference on Green Growth and Sustainable

Development Goals, organised by Asia-Europe Environment Forum (ENVforum), during 4-5 November 2013, in Seoul, Korea.

� Made a presentation and chaired a session at a South Asian Consultation titled Making Sustainability the Next Metric: the Post-2015 Development Agenda, organised by CEPA, during 6-7 November 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

� Spoke at a Conference on The Role of BRICS in the Post-2015 Development Agenda, organised by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), during 28-30 November 2013, in Shanghai, China.

Debapriya Bhattacharya and Fahmida Khatun� Attended the Consultation on European Report on Development 2014 on

“Financing and other means of Implementation in the Post-2015 Context” at WTO MC9, during 3-6 December 2013, in Bali, Indonesia.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Additional Research Director� Was a Designated Speaker at the European Conference on Living Wage,

organised by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, during 24-26 November 2013, in Berlin, Germany.

Mustafizur Rahman, Debapriya Bhattacharya, Fahmida Khatun and Khondaker Golam Moazzem� Addressed the dialogue Integrating Trade Issues in Post-2015 International

Development Framework: Ongoing Debates and Potential Opportunities, jointly organised by CPD, SAWTEE, Commonwealth Secretariat; Office of the High Representative for the LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS (UN-OHRLLS), as part of Bali TDS on the side lines of WTO MC9, during 3-6 December 2013, in Bali, Indonesia.

Mustafizur Rahman and Khondaker Golam Moazzem� Participated at a Stakeholders Conference titled Assessment of

Bangladesh-India Trade Potentiality, organised by CUTS International, during 15-16 November 2013, in Kolkata, India.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem and Muhammad Al Amin, Senior Research Associate� Attended the UNESCAP Policy Dialogue on Regional Cooperation,

Connectivity and Inclusive Development in South and South-West Asia, during 28-29 November 2013, in New Delhi, India.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, Research Fellow� Attended a Policy Round Table Meeting on Curtailing Transfer Mispricing:

Africa’s Response to Global Challenges organised by The Tax Justice Network-Africa in collaboration with Strathmore Tax Research Centre, during 28-29 November 2013, in Nairobi, Kenya.

� Made a presentation on “Regional Co-operation for Food Security in South Asia” at Sixteenth Sustainable Development Conference (SDC) organised by SDPI, during 10-12 December 2013 in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Avra Bhattacharjee and Nazmatun Noor, Deputy Directors, Dialogue and Outreach; A H M Ashrafuzzaman, Senior System Analyst and Muhammad Nabil, Dialogue Associate� Participated in a Peer Exchange Visit to Sustainable Development Policy

Institute (SDPI), during 24-28 November 2013, in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Khaleda Akhter, Senior Research Associate� Participated at South Asian Training Programme on Computable General

Equilibrium Modelling, organised by SAWTEE, SANEM, and Centre for WTO Studies, during 22-26 October 2013 in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Zafar Sadique, Research Associate� Participated at the Policy Dialogue on Economic and Transport Development

in Border Areas in Eastern South Asia, organised by UNESCAP in collaboration with ADB and Government of Meghalaya, during 4-5 December 2013, in Shillong, Meghalaya, India.

Mehruna Islam Chowdhury, Research Associate� Participated at the 27th Biannual Research and Training Workshop, organised

by SANDEE, during 9-14 December 2013, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Saifa Raz, Research Associate� Participated at Monitoring the Effectiveness and Development Impact of Aid

for Trade, organised by UNESCAP Trade and Investment Division, during 18-19 November 2013, in Bangkok, Thailand.

Mahenaw Ummul Wara, Research Associate� Participated at a training for young international policy analysts titled How to

Make Best Use of UN Capacities, organised by FES, New York, during 11-15 November 2013, in New York, USA.

CPD Professionals in International Fora



Media BriefingPolitical Business Cycle may afflict Bangladesh Economy

The political elites of Bangladesh must disallow political confrontation to undermine their class interest which is crucial to safeguarding the interest of Bangladesh economy and the livelihood concerns of common citizens, observed CPD researchers.

Ahead of the electoral transition, incumbent policymakers would need to redefine the fiscal goal posts, promote credit expansion in private sector, maintain support to crop sector and contain potential inflationary pressure.

The recommendations emerged from a CPD study titled “Bangladesh Economy in FY2014: Three Months after the Budget, Three Months before the Elections,” shared with the media in a briefing session at CPD office on 22 October 2013.

On behalf of the CPD IRBD team, Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow, CPD presented the report that analysed Bangladesh

economy’s performance through the prism of the political business cycle (PBC). PBC is a notion suggesting that ahead of the electoral transition, elected government leaders tend to manipulate the economy to achieve personal goals in order to remain in the office.

The PBC analysis was conducted with a view to identifying the implication in terms of fiscal mobilisations, public expenditure, growth performance, revenue collection and fiscal deficit as

manifested in the past National Elections in Bangladesh. The presentation also addressed FY2014 benchmarks, macroeconomic and the budgetary targets for the current fiscal year; and reviewed the movement of a set of key indicators for the first quarters of FY2014, based on analyses of the latest information.

The analysis was prepared under the CPD flagship programme titledIndependent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD)

CPD Publications� Khatun, F. 2013. Post-2015 Agenda on Trade, Climate Change and Food

Security: A South Asian Perspective. Policy Brief 26. Kathmandu: South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SAWTEE).

Journal Articles� Ahamad, M.G., Khondker, R.K., Ahmed, Z.U. and Tanin, F. 2013.

“Seasonal Food Insecurity in Bangladesh: Evidences from Northern Areas.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18 (7) October 2013: 1077-1088.

� Boksh, F.I.M.M. 2013. “Renewable Energy for Newfoundland and Labrador: Policy Formulation and Decision Making.” Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 2 (8): 93-100.

� Chakrabartya, S., Boksh, F.I.M.M. and Chakraborty, A. 2013. “Economic Viability of Biogas and Green Self-Employment Opportunities.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28 (December 2013): 757-766.

Blog Post� Bhattacharya, D. and Khan, T.I. 2013. “MDGs in the LDCs: six lessons for

post-2015.” Development Progress. 24 October. http://www.developm entprogress.org/blog/2013/10/24/mdgs-ldcs-six-lessons-post-2015

Newspaper Interviews� Khatun, F. 2013. bxwZgvjvi avivevwnKZv Dbœq‡bi Acwinvh© kZ©. Samakal,

2 October.� Khatun, F. 2013. ïay bxwZgvjv w`‡q wewb‡qvM evov‡bv m¤¢e bq. Bonik Barta,

22 October.� Moazzem, K.G. 2013. Bangladesh Garment Workers Demand Higher Pay.

Time Magazine, 14 November.� Khatun, F. 2013. Stuck in a loop of political instability. The Daily Star,

24 November.� Moazzem, K.G. 2013. Changes to Bangladesh garment industry grind

ahead, but slowly. The Washington Post, 27 November.� Khatun, F. 2013. Economic Sovereignty: ‘When a government is very

weak it cannot withstand any pressure’. New Age, 20 December.� Bhattacharya, D. 2013. åó ivRbxwZ bó A_©bxwZ. Bangladesh Protidin,

24 December.Voice Interview� Rahman, M. 2014. evsjv‡`‡ki ivR‰bwZK Aw¯’iZvi A_©‰bwZK cÖfve cÖm‡½

wmwcwWÕi W. gy Í̄vwdRyi ingvb. Voice of America, 27 December.Newspaper and Magazine Articles� Khatun, F. 2013. Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

and Food Security in South Asia. Daily Sun, 13 October.� Moazzem, K.G. 2013. cwiev‡ii e¨q †gUv‡bvi g‡Zv gRywi nIqv evÃbxq. Shokaler

Khabor, 13 October.

BANGLADESH ECONOMYin FY2011-12 and Outlook for FY2012-13

State of the

Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)The volume captures key developments in the Bangladesh economy in FY2012 and anticipates early signals of FY2013. The highlights of the volume include tracking the performance of key macroeconomic correlates; in-depth analysis of two thematic issues which are critical to the country’s macroeconomic management in the present juncture – Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) and performance of the manufacturing sector of Bangladesh; analysis of the various proposals in the National Budget for FY2013; and state of governance in the banking sector of Bangladesh.

Published by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)House 40C, Road 32, Dhanmondi R/A, Dhaka 1209, Bangladesh; Mailing Address: GPO Box 2129, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Telephone: (+88 02) 9141734, 9141703, 9126402; Fax: (+88 02) 8130951; E-mail: [email protected]; Website: cpd.org.bd

CPD Working Paper 105Revisiting the PRSP Experience in Bangladesh: Perspectives on Representation, Accountability and InclusivenessFahmida Khatun, Debapriya Bhattacharya and Mustafizur RahmanCPD-CMI Working Paper 6Finance for Local Government in Bangladesh: An Elusive AgendaDebapriya Bhattacharya, Mobasser Monem and Umme Shefa RezbanaCPD-CMI Working Paper 7FDI in the Energy and Power Sector and Economic Growth in BangladeshFahmida Khatun and Mazbahul Golam AhamadCPD-ICTSD Issue Paper 29Evaluating Aid for Trade on the Ground: Lessons from Bangladesh Fahmida Khatun, Samina Hossain and Nepolean DewanCPD-CMI Policy Brief TwoIndian Rice Export Restrictions in 2007-2008: Lessons for BangladeshTowfiqul Islam KhanCPD Dialogue Report 109Analysis of the National Budget for FY2013-14

Publications from outside of CPDBooks� Moazzem, K.G., Raz, S., Miller, D., Schlangen, C. and Sluijs, I.V. 2013.

Estimating a Living Minimum Wage for the Ready Made Garment Sector in Bangladesh. The Netherlands: Centre for Policy Dialogue and Berenschot.

Policy Briefs� Bhattacharya, D., Khan, T.I., Salma, U., Uddin, G.J. 2013. Lagging Behind:

Lessons from the Least Developed Countries for a Development Agenda Post-2015. Perspectives Series. Berlin: Global Policy and Development department at Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES).



State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2011-12 and Outlook for FY2012-13

Policy Bangladesh Vol XII Issue 4 Quarterly - cpd.org.bd · Chairman of Mymensingh Sadar Upazila Parishad, Mr Faizur Rahman Fakir ... Centre, Switzerland; Mr Rashid S Kaukab, Director,

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