Policies for adaptation Anand Patwardhan Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Asian Climate Change Workshop Indian Institute of Science, July 2011.

Policies for adaptation

Anand PatwardhanIndian Institute of Technology-Bombay

Asian Climate Change WorkshopIndian Institute of Science, July 2011

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Why adaptation?

• Asymmetry in distribution of impacts– Disproportionately larger impacts may be experienced in

developing countries

• Mitigation is not enough– Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and

significant degree of anthropogenic climate change– This is true even if we think a 2 C target is possible, and

even more important if we don’t reach it (quite likely)

• Managing climate risk is important for sustainable development– We are not well adapted to current climate risks– A greater focus on adaptation (filling the “adaptation

deficit”) may actually help in advancing the development agenda

July 22, 2011 Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay

Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay3

Sensitivity to climate: GDP and Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Impact of a severe drought on GDP remains 2 to 5% throughout, despite the substantial decrease in the contribution of agriculture to GDP over five decades.

From: Gadgil and Gadgil (2006)

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July 22, 2011Anand Patwardhan, IIT-

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Evolving thinking on adaptation

• Adaptation viewed purely as a response (to climate change)– Adjustments made in practices, processes or

structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate (AR1)

• Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments– Net impacts = Impacts (Vulnerability, Hazard) –

Adaptation (SAR)

• Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as issues of importance in their own right– Recognition of an “adaptation deficit” (TAR)

• Evolution in thinking from a mechanistic and sequential view of impacts, vulnerability & adaptation to a more complex, process oriented view of climate-society interaction– Concept of mainstreaming (AR4)

Useful to think about adaptation as a risk management problem

Risk: chance of loss or adverse consequence – function of loss and probability

• What is the source of risk? (Hazard)• Who / what is at risk? (Exposure)• How are they at risk and what are the

consequences? (Vulnerability & Impacts)• How will this risk change in the future?

(Future vulnerability)• How do we manage risk now and in the

future? (Adaptation & Adaptive Capacity)

Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay

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Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay

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The interaction between coping and climate outcomes

Coping range

Vulnerability(drought)

Vulnerability(flood)

Coping range

Vulnerability

Vulnerability

Coping range

Vulnerability

Vulnerability

Coping range

Vulnerability(drought)

Vulnerability(flood)

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Classes of adaptation options

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Typologies and examples

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http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/fig18-5.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/fig18-5.htm

More examples

Infrastructure/Technology

Behaviour/institutional

Coastal Mangrove replantingAppropriate hard and softengineering for coastaldefence

Enhanced zoning andplanning to reduce hazardEvolution of collective actioninstitutions for recovery andprotection

Settlement/cities Actions to reduce urban heatislandsReduced groundwaterextraction.Flood risk insurance

Zoning and planning toreduce hazard incidence

Agriculture Water use efficiency, landarea expansion

Adoption of drought proofvarieties; Land distribution;crop insurance, commoditiesexchanges


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Putting adaptation into practice: mainstreaming or integration

Disaster management: climate-related hazards

Development activities: infrastructure, public services

Resource management: water, forestry

Adaptation

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Development planning

• Because development planning authority is local, possibility of mal-adaptation because the climate signal is at a scale that is not “seen”– Securing urban water supply

• Outcomes / benefits of development interventions may be at risk due to climate change– Energy / coastal infrastructure

• Can a focus on adaptation help catalyze investment to meet the “adaptation deficit” and thus contribute to development outcomes?– Good idea to seek co-benefits, but are we giving up “new and

additional” resources for adaptation?

July 22, 2011


Disaster management

• Short-term coping vs. long-term adaptation– At what point does coping effectively become

unviable?• Disaster management often focuses on relief

– In terms of adaptive capacity, what is more important – ability to reduce immediate impact (relief) vs. ability to restore flow of goods & services (recovery)

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Resource management

• Operational, planning and policy decisions in key sectors: water, health, conservation & forest management– How useful is the 30-year climate normal as the

basis for planning?• Going from one-time to on-going response

– Does the institutional set-up have the ability to perceive change, assess it, and formulate response on an on-going basis?

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Multilateral response: Adaptation in the Convention

• According to Article 4.1 Parties are committed to:– Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional

programmes containing measures… to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (Art. 4.1. (b)); and

– Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods (Art. 4.1 (e)).

• Article 4.4 states that:– The developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in Annex II shall also assist the

developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting the costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.

– Basis, quantum and delivery of funding not specified• Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the Convention make specific reference to developing country Parties, in

particular least developed and most vulnerable countries, and funding and transfer of technology “to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change”

• A staged response has dominated thinking on adaptation:– Stage 1: Planning and assessment (including impact & vulnerability assessment)– Stage 2: Identifying and evaluating adaptation measures– Stage 3: Implementing adaptation measures

• Unfortunately, progress has been rather limited, little beyond research, assessment & capacity-building (stages 1 & 2)


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Key questions

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• What is “adaptation”? The adaptation = development conceptualization has led to a peculiar situation:– Because adaptation = development, “normal” development actions ought to

take care of the problem, as long as agents (and decisions) are “fully informed”– If adaptation = development, donor countries fear that “normal” development

cam get put under adaptation projects, thus “opening the floodgates” in terms of demand on resources

• How much is needed?– Costs of adaptation, dealing with chronic vs. acute change

• How to generate the resources?– Adequacy, predictability, new & additional?

• What to support?– Characterization of adaptation demand, with standardized methodologies and

metrics• How to deliver?

– Appropriate institutional structure (GEF vs. Adaptation Fund Board) and financing instruments (grant vs. “concessional” finance)

• Recognize that in the case of adaptation (unlike mitigation), for most sectors, the actions being supported will be those of public entities

• Difficulty with directly applying ideas from mitigation (baselines, additionality, incremental cost, global / local benefits)


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Estimates of costs of adaptation

Sector Areas / Adaptation measures considered

Global(billion USD)

Developing countries (%)

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

Production and processing

Research and development

Extension activities

14 50 %

Water supply Water supply infrastructure 11 80 %

Human Health Treating increased cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition and malaria

5 100 %

Coastal zone Beach nourishment and dykes 11 40 %

Infrastructure New infrastructure 8130 25 %

• UNFCCC, 2007: Additional investment and financial flows in 2030 for adaptation amount to tens of billions of USD, estimates depend on underlying scenarios

• Adaptation costs depend on level of mitigation activities• Most studies based on the original World Bank approach: taking the fraction of the investment that is “climate-

sensitive” and applying a mark-up factor to estimate the cost of climate-proofing• Many problems: limited range of impacts, only infrastructure measures, no transaction costs, ignore range of

outcomes, lack of “bottom-up” validation


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Comparing costs with funding

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Sorting through the adaptation – development linkage

• Burden-sharing with respect to resource mobilization

• Co-benefits• Additionality: better characterization of

adaptation demand• Nature of additionality

1. Integrating climate risk into socio-economic activities to ‘climate-proof’ a current or future socio-economic activity to harness development benefits, e.g. airport in coastal zone

2. Expanding adaptive capacity to deal with future and not only current risks to harness development and adaptation benefits, e.g. crop insurance

3. Directly addressing observed impacts from climate change to harness adaptation benefits, e.g. changing Malaria zones

• Nature of intervention– Context (projects, programmes and policies)– Type (research, capacity-building, investments)


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Analyzing the interventions in the National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA’s)

Intervention

Additionality

Type of intervention Context of intervention

Research and assessments

Disaster risk reduction

Programmes Projects

Integrating climate risk into socio-economic activities

Research on micro hydro-power production (Burundi)

Introduce drought tolerant crop varieties (Comoros)

Incorporate adaptations from NAPAs in Ministry Operational Plans (Kiribati)

Increase water supplies to combat increasing drought (Comoros)

Expanding adaptive capacity to deal with future and not only current risks

Research on drought, flood and saline tolerant crop varieties (Bangladesh)

Strengthen early warning systems (Zambia)

Integrated protection and management of coastal zones (Cape Verde)

Plant vegetation to reduce risks from storms (Cambodia)

Directly addressing impacts from climate change

Improve understanding of groundwater resources in light of persistent drought (Mauritania)

River flood warning system (Bhutan)

Mainstreaming adaptation into sectoral programmes (Bangladesh)

Lowering of water levels in the Thorthormi Lake to reduce risk of a future GLOF (Bhutan)


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Negotiated co-financing based on characterization of demand

Intervention

Additionality

Type of intervention Context of intervention

Research and assessments

Disaster risk reduction

Programmes Projects

Integrating climate risk into socio-economic activities

Full cost Negotiated co-financing depending on sector and project/ Full costs of marginal adjustments

Negotiated co-financing depending on sector and project/ Full costs of marginal adjustments

Negotiated co-financing depending on sector and project/ Full cost of marginal adjustments

Expanding adaptive capacity to deal with future and not only current risks

Negotiated co-financing

Negotiated co-financing depending on sector and project



Directly addressing impacts from climate change

Full cost Full cost Full cost Full cost



Challenges• Perception

– How do we bring the long-term into today’s decisions?

• Planning and evaluation– Methodologies and metrics (costs, benefits)

• Constraints & barriers to response– Resources, institutions, political will

• Path dependency– Possibility of mal-adaptation

• Limits of adaptation– How much is possible with adaptation? Residual vulnerabilities will be large in

a 4 C world

• Non-marginal impacts, non-linearity, thresholds– Existing methodologies break down

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To conclude

• Adaptation is not an option – it is a necessity• Adaptation is required now – managing climate risk

is essential for sustainable development• Adaptation is a process – it needs to be

institutionalized• What we are adapting to is not fully clear – and

may never be fully clear• We may not be able to identify optimal (first best)

strategies – robust (second best) strategies may be better

• As a start we need to invest in research, assessment and capacity-building


Policies for adaptation Anand Patwardhan Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Asian Climate Change Workshop Indian Institute of Science, July 2011.

Documents

adaptation adaptation

vulnerability adaptation

climate ar1 adaptation

forestry adaptation

adaptation help

iitbombay slide

climate outcomes

risk change