Plenary Session Presentation Plenary Session Presentation Southern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002 Southern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002 Foxwoods Resort Casino Foxwoods Resort Casino Mashantucket, CT Mashantucket, CT May 10, 2002 May 10, 2002 Gary Ciminero, CFA Gary Ciminero, CFA Acting Director Acting Director Rhode Island House Policy Office Rhode Island House Policy Office New England Economic Prospects: New England Economic Prospects: Minimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in Store Minimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in Store What will the economy look like nationally and regionally? What will the economy look like nationally and regionally?
23
Embed
Plenary Session Presentation Southern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002 Foxwoods Resort Casino Mashantucket, CT May 10, 2002 Gary Ciminero, CFA.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Plenary Session PresentationPlenary Session PresentationSouthern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002Southern New England Economic Outlook--Summit 2002
Gary Ciminero, CFAGary Ciminero, CFAActing DirectorActing Director
Rhode Island House Policy OfficeRhode Island House Policy Office
New England Economic Prospects:New England Economic Prospects:Minimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in StoreMinimal Recession Ended—Moderate Recovery in Store
What will the economy look like nationally and regionally?What will the economy look like nationally and regionally?
Recession Ending in New EnglandRecession Ending in New England
RI Historical Perspectives:RI Historical Perspectives:Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Regained During 10-Year RecoveryRegained During 10-Year Recovery
RI Jobs in Expansion: After Losing 54K Jobs in "Great Recession" … 66.7K Payroll Jobs Added in Subsequent 123 Months of Recovery thru 03/02: Trade Jobs Fully Recovered
Mild Recession Impact on RI Jobs--Feb & Mar '02 Jobs Hit New Record LevelAfter Stalling Since July '01--and Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.2%
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
Jan-
85
Jul-
85
Jan-
86
Jul-
86
Jan-
87
Jul-
87
Jan-
88
Jul-
88
Jan-
89
Jul-
89
Jan-
90
Jul-
90
Jan-
91
Jul-
91
Jan-
92
Jul-
92
Jan-
93
Jul-
93
Jan-
94
Jul-
94
Jan-
95
Jul-
95
Jan-
96
Jul-
96
Jan-
97
Jul-
97
Jan-
98
Jul-
98
Jan-
99
Jul-
99
Jan-
00
Jul-
00
Jan-
01
Jul-
01
Jan-
02
BA
RS
: N
on
farm
Em
plo
ymen
t (M
on
thly
, SA
)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
LIN
E:
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e, %
RI Current Labor Market Conditions: Sector RI Current Labor Market Conditions: Sector Jobs Growth: 1Q-’02 vs. 1Q-’01Jobs Growth: 1Q-’02 vs. 1Q-’01
Through March 2002, Jobs up just 1,000 or 0.1% vs. 2001 PeriodFIRE, Services, and Have Biggest Percentage Gains
Construction and TPU Tick Down but Manufacturing begins to Plunging at Near Record Rates
0.1
-6.9
3.5
-1.1
2.3
0.8
-1.4
0.1
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Total Nonfarm Jobs (%-ch.)
Manufacturing
Finance, Ins., & RE
Construction
Services
Total Trade
Trans./Pub. Util.
Governments
RI Current Conditions: Housing MarketRI Current Conditions: Housing Market
RI Housing Market through Late-2001Home Resales Stay Near 1998 Highs (line)
asResale Prices Race Even Higher to New All-Time Record (bars)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
19
88
Q1
19
88
Q3
19
89
Q1
19
89
Q3
19
90
Q1
19
90
Q3
19
91
Q1
19
91
Q3
19
92
Q1
19
92
Q3
19
93
Q1
19
93
Q3
19
94
Q1
19
94
Q3
19
95
Q1
19
95
Q3
19
96
Q1
19
96
Q3
19
97
Q1
19
97
Q3
19
98
Q1
19
98
Q3
19
99
Q1
19
99
Q3
20
00
Q1
20
00
Q3
20
01
Q1
20
01
Q3
BA
R: S
ing
le-F
am
. M
ed
ian
Re
sale
Pri
ces,
($
10
00
)
0
5
10
15
20
LIN
E: S
ing
le-F
am
. Ho
me
Re
sale
s (1
00
0's
,SA
AR
)
RI Current Conditions: Auto MarketRI Current Conditions: Auto Market
Strong RI Auto Market Spikes Up on 0% Financing in Oct '01-/Jan '02. Then Loses Momentum in Feb '02
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan
-90
Jan
-91
Jan
-92
Jan
-93
Jan
-94
Jan
-95
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
To
tal
Ne
w V
eh
icle
Re
gis
tra
tio
ns
,(R
L P
olk
Da
ta,
SA
Mo
nth
ly)
MA Historical Perspectives:MA Historical Perspectives:Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Jobs Lost During “Great Recession” Regained During 10-Year RecoveryRegained During 10-Year Recovery
Massachusetts Jobs Well into Expansion Mode:564K Payroll Jobs Added in Subsequent 10-Year Recovery thru 12/01
Services Take Over; Trade Just Recovering; Mfg. Still Falling, FIRE Up Just 11K
Table DP-1 Profile of General Demographic Characteristics for Massachusetts: Change 1990-2000
NUMBER/Percentage CHANGE NUMBER/Percentage CHANGESubject/Year 1990 2000 Number Percent 1990 2000 Number Percent
Chg Chg Total population 6,016,425 6,349,097 332,672 5.5 HISPANIC OR LATINO AND RACE SEX AND AGE Total population 100.0% 100.0% 332,672 5.5Male 48.0% 48.2% 170,071 5.9 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4.8 6.8 141,180 49.1Female 52.0 51.8 162,601 5.2 Mexican 0.2 0.4 9,585 75.5
Puerto MAcan 2.5 3.1 48,014 31.8Under 5 years 6.9 6.3 -15,205 -3.7 Cuban 0.1 0.1 761 9.45 to 9 years 6.3 6.8 52,826 14.0 Other Hispanic or Latino 1.9 3.1 82,820 71.710 to 14 years 5.8 6.8 83,154 23.9 Not Hispanic or Latino 95.2 93.2 191,492 3.315 to 19 years 6.8 6.5 5,803 1.4 White alone 87.8 81.9 -81,933 -1.620 to 24 years 8.5 6.4 -109,360 -21.325 to 34 years 18.3 14.6 -174,573 -15.9 RELATIONSHIP35 to 44 years 15.3 16.7 144,539 15.7 Total population……………………………… 100.0% 100.0% 332,672 5.545 to 54 years 10.0 13.8 273,258 45.5 In households 96.4 96.5 325,763 5.655 to 59 years 4.2 4.9 56,544 22.3 Householder 37.3 38.5 196,470 8.760 to 64 years 4.3 3.7 -25,192 -9.6 Spouse 19.5 18.9 27,642 2.465 to 74 years 7.6 6.7 -32,051 -7.0 Child 30.6 29.0 4,156 0.275 to 84 years 4.4 5.0 48,446 18.1 Own child under 18 years 20.9 21.8 123,760 9.885 years and over 1.5 1.8 24,483 26.6 Other relatives 4.0 4.5 39,997 16.4
Under 18 years 1.1 1.4 20,270 30.1Median age (years) 34 37 3 9.0 Nonrelatives 5.0 5.6 57,498 19.1
UnmarMAed partner 1.3 2.1 52,091 66.118 years and over 77.5% 76.4% 185,683 4.0 In group quarters 3.6 3.5 6,909 3.2 Male 36.5 36.1 94,417 4.3 Institutionalized population 1.4 1.4 4,108 4.9 Female 41.0 40.3 91,266 3.7 Noninstitutionalized population 2.2 2.1 2,801 2.221 years and over 72.5 72.3 226,713 5.262 years and over 16.2 15.7 20,001 2.0 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE65 years and over 13.6 13.5 40,878 5.0 Total households 2,247,110 2,443,580 196,470 8.7 Male 5.2 5.4 29,265 9.4 Family households (families) 67.4% 64.5% 61,950 4.1 Female 8.4 8.2 11,613 2.3 With own children under 18 years 30.7 30.6 59,761 8.7
MarMAed-couple family 52.1 49.0 27,642 2.4RACE With own children under 18 years 23.3 22.4 24,153 4.6One race 100.0% 97.7% 186,667 3.1 Female householder, no husband present 12.1 11.9 19,021 7.0 White 89.8 84.5 -38,088 -0.7 With own children under 18 years 6.3 6.7 21,639 15.2 Black or African American 5.0 5.4 43,324 14.4 Nonfamily households 32.6 35.5 134,520 18.4 American Indian and Alaska Native 0.2 0.2 2,774 22.7 Householder living alone 25.8 28.0 103,571 17.8 Asian 2.4 3.8 95,987 67.5 Householder 65 years and over 10.8 10.5 12,803 5.3 Asian Indian 0.3 0.7 24,082 122.1 Chinese 0.9 1.3 30,600 56.9 Households with individuals under 18 years 32.6 32.9 71,500 9.7 Filipino 0.1 0.1 2,061 33.2 Households with individuals 65 years and over 25.6 24.7 28,673 5.0 Japanese 0.1 0.2 1,755 20.0 Korean 0.2 0.3 5,625 47.9 Average household size 2.58 2.51 -0.07 -2.7 Vietnamese 0.3 0.5 18,513 119.8 Average family size 3.15 3.11 -0.04 -1.3 Other Asian 1… 0.4 0.6 13,351 50.5 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander - - 1,234 98.3 HOUSING OCCUPANCY Native Hawaiian - - 57 11.3 Total housing units 2,472,711 2,621,989 149,278 6.0 Guamanian or Chamorro - - 165 45.3 Occupied housing units 90.9% 93.2% 196,470 8.7 Samoan - - 272 133.3 Vacant housing units 9.1 6.8 -47,192 -20.9 Other Pacific Islander 2… - - 740 406.6 For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use 3.7 3.6 3,404 3.8 Some other race 2.6 3.7 81,436 52.4Two or more races (NA) 2.3 (NA) (NA) Homeowner vacancy rate (percent) 1.7 0.7 -1.0 (X)
Rental vacancy rate (percent) 6.9 3.5 -3.4 (X)Race alone or in combination with one or more other races: 3 HOUSING TENUREWhite (NA) 86.2% (NA) (NA) Occupied housing units 2,247,110 2,621,989 196,470 100.0Black or African American (NA) 6.3 (NA) (NA) Owner-occupied housing units 59.3% 61.7% 176,559 89.9American Indian and Alaska Native (NA) 0.6 (NA) (NA) Renter-occupied housing units 40.7 38.3 19,911 10.1Asian (NA) 4.2 (NA) (NA)Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander (NA) 0.1 (NA) (NA) Average household size of owner-occupied units 2.82 0.70 -0.10 (X)Some other race (NA) 5.1 (NA) (NA) Average household size of renter-occupied units 2.24 3.50 -0.07 (X)