Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012 Transport Outlook 2050 CO 2 Emissions from 9 billion people TURNING THE RIGHT CORNER TOWARDS A LOW-EMISSION TRANSPORT SECTOR Berlin 27-28 September 2012
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Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook
Transport Outlook 2050 CO 2 Emissions from 9 billion people. Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook . Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012. TURNING THE RIGHT CORNER TOWARDS A LOW-EMISSION TRANSPORT SECTOR Berlin 27-28 September 2012. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook
Transforming TransportationWashington DC26 January 2012
Transport Outlook 2050CO2 Emissions from 9 billion people
TURNING THE RIGHT CORNERTOWARDS A LOW-EMISSION TRANSPORT SECTOR
Berlin27-28 September 2012
Global passenger transport activity 2010 – 2050 Index of pkm (2010 = 100)
2
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
OECD20
10
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
50
100
150
200
250
•Economy returns to pre-crisis output trends•Policy priority to private ownership and use accommodation
•No return to pre-crisis output trends •Private demand management and further development of public transport supply
Global passenger transport activity 2010 – 2050 Index of pkm (2010 = 100)
3
Non-OECD
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
•Economy returns to pre-crisis levels
•Rapid urbanization while policies enable following OECD private vehicle ownership patterns
•No return to pre-crisis output trends
•Rapid urbanization is defined by active private demand management, land use policy and development of public transport
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
Global passenger transport activity 2010-2050• Growth is expected to be much higher outside the OECD leading to total
passenger transport flows around 3.6 times as large in 2050 as in 2010
• This assumes that car ownership and use follow historical patterns observed in OECD Europe / Japan
• Discouraging car ownership and use reduces mobility growth and also diverts mobility to two-wheelers and to public transport.
• Our “low car ownership” scenario indicates that outside the OECD two-wheeler use allows mobility to develop as quickly as in the “high car ownership” scenario at moderate income levels.
4
Global freight transport activity, 2010 – 2050, baseline and decouplingIndex of tkm (2010 = 100)
5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205050
100
150
200
250
OECD
• Economy returns to pre-crisis trends
• Transport intensity of GDP equal to unity
• Economy returns to pre-crisis trends
• Decoupling of surface freight from GDP
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
Global freight transport activity, 2010 – 2050, baseline and decouplingIndex of tkm (2010 = 100)
6
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205050
150
250
350
450
550
Non-OECD• Economy returns to
pre-crisis trends • Transport intensity
of GDP equal to unity
• Economy returns to pre-crisis trends
• Decoupling of surface freight from GDP
Freight transport activity 2010-2050
• Global freight tonne-km to rise 2–4 times by 2050
• Low scenario: Decoupling of tonne-km from GDP growth– Rapid dematerialisation– Active policies to dampen freight transport growth
• High scenario: GDP growth returns to pre-crisis trends and remains transport intensive with unitary elasticity– Evidence from OECD countries supports high freight transport intensity of
GDP
• Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight intensive growth path, this upside risk is reflected in the high scenarios
7
Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries (baseline scenarios)
8
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
OECD48%
non-OECD52%
Passenger mobility (pkm) 2010
OECD29%
non-OECD71%
Passenger mobility (pkm) 2010
OECD28%
non-OECD72%
Surface freight (tkm) Baseline, 2050
OECD47%
non-OECD53%
Surface freight (tkm), 2010
High Scenarios
• Best interpreted as where demand “would like to go”• Realistic? Policy intervention?
– Urbanisation policies might slow growth of car ownership and use
– High energy prices would suppress growth– …..
• But high scenarios far from impossible
9
CO2 emissions from passenger mobility• CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy
improvement and technological change
• In the OECD, the CO2-saving effect of technological change is sufficiently large that emissions from passenger transport stabilize or even decline despite the transport volume growth of around 30%
• Outside the OECD, the fast growth of mobility and the switch to more CO2-intensive modes imply a large increase in emissions that is only mildly tempered by technological change. The increase is expected to be between 1.5 and 3 times 2010 levels
10
Global CO2 emissions from total private mobility index (2010 = 100)
11
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
OECD Non-OECD
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205050
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
100
200
300
400
500
CO2 emissions from freight transport
• CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvements and these improvements are larger in the OECD than outside the OECD
• Due to expected changes in the commodity mix outside the OECD, CO2 projections in the high scenario may be conservative given the possibility of an increasing share of road freight
12
Global CO2 emissions from total freight mobility index (2010 = 100)
13
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
100
200
300
400
500
Non-OECD
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205050
100
150
200
250
300
OECD
Global CO2 emissions from transport
• Globally CO2 emissions from transport are expected to be 1.5 to 2.5 times higher by 2050 compared to 2010 values
• In the OECD, stronger growth in demand for freight transport mitigates some of the technological improvements in private mobility in terms of emissions
• Outside the OECD stronger growth in both passenger and freight mobility together with less technological change puts additional pressure on global emissions
• In total emissions from transport are to rise by a factor of 2.4 to 4.5 outside the OECD
14
Global CO2 emissions from transport, index (2010 = 100)
15
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
GDP recovery, high car ownership and GDP intensity of freight transport equal to unity
GDP recovery, low car ownership and decoupling of freight transport from GDP
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
100
200
300
Global CO2 emissions from transport, by transport mode for passenger and freight, metric-tonnes of CO2 equivalent
16
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
World
LDV truckstwo wheelers busair rail (passenger and freight)
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
Passenger Modal Split by region, 2010 and 2050 baseline scenario, p-km (%)
17
OECD Non-OECD
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.
Light-duty Vehicles
2w Air Rail Bus0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Light-duty Vehicles
2w Air Rail Bus0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20102050
Global CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles
•Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy improvement around the world–GFEI target: 8 l/100km for new fleet in 2008 4 l/100km in
2030; & for whole fleet in 2050– through continued progress with car emissions standards
would stabilise emissions
• Impressive but not enough to for IPCC 450ppm CO2 limit
18
19New Car CO2 Emissions Regulations
An example on Urban development and car use policies
Motorization Rates in Shanghai and Beijing in Relation to GDP per Capita
20
Effective Policies for Lower Emissions from Transport
• Vehicle and fuel Technology - fuel economy (ICE) and low carbon energy vectors• Improved Public Transport service through ITS• Urban land use and car use
– Just like transport generates emissions, inadequate land use generates excessive transport
– Regulation & Prices on ownership, access and parking
• Prices in general reflecting use of resources (costs) as well as value for users and for society• Coordinated Use of Multiple Instruments