Play predict

Play Predict

Seiji Armstrong

15 players on a team

5 players on the court

The coach rotates players

between the bench and the court

Data-driven approach:

real-time performance prediction

Performance predictions

Game play has patterns

Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…

Plays come in streaks

33

4

5

4 3 5

Plays come in streaks

Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…

Game play has patterns

33

4

5

4 3 5

Plays come in streaks

Positive: shots, assists, steals… Negative: turnovers, fouls…

Game play has patterns

3 pointer

2 pointer

Play Predict :: algorithm

Basketballvalue.com

API Bulk download Scrape

2500 game events per player

Probability density

functionsConditional probabilities

Performance predictions

Unique streak

profilesClassifying

streaks

Complete game logs

Play Predict :: validation

Training set

Test

set

0.90.2

0.2

0.9

Validation set:

Played over 75% of

games (89 players).

Testing predictions

to continue streak

from 2 to 3.

Pearson R = 0.7

Seiji Armstrong