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Platts is a commodity information and data provider founded by Warren Platt over 100 years ago, and owned by McGraw Hill Financial, a leading provider of ratings, benchmarks and analytics.
Price Reporting Assessments
Market Reports Breaking News
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27
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29
Platts Market On Close (MOC) is not an average
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
Market on close
assessment
Average
Time
30
How does Platts engage the market?
Phone calls IM: Yahoo/QQ
Electronic mails
HEARDS: PCA 005
Platts Market on Close Process
Market on Close assessment process
31
Part of the price discovery process at Platts is the Market on Close assessment process.
At 3:30-4:00 pm Singapore time daily, Platts invites firm bids and offers from approved market participants.
During 4:00-4:30 pm Singapore time, participants are allowed to increase or decrease their bids and offers.
These price movements are tested by the market as they are open bids and offers.
After 4:30 pm Singapore time, no new information will be accepted and the numbers on the MOC process will form an important basis for the final assessment of the day.
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 280: Benzene bid/offer summary ON CLOSE: No bids/No offers
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 276: Benzene [NON MOC]: June/July spread offer at minus $13/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 270: Benzene [NON MOC]: June/July spread bid at minus $17/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 269: Benzene [NON MOC]: H2 May/June spread bid at minus $23/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 268: Benzene [NON MOC]: July offer at $888/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 267: Benzene [NON MOC]: June offer at $875/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 266: Benzene [NON MOC]: H1 June offer at $873/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 234: Benzene bid/offer summary: No bids/No offers
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 218: Benzene: H1 Jun FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 216: Benzene: H2 May FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 214: Benzene: H1 May FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 213: Benzene: H2 Jul pegged at $888/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 212: Benzene: H1 Jul pegged at $885/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 211: Benzene: H2 Jun pegged at $876/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 210: Benzene: H1 Jun pegged at $874/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 209: Benzene: H2 May pegged at $863/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 208: Benzene: H1 May pegged at $861/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 206: Benzene: June/July spread offer at minus $12/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 205: Benzene: June/July spread bid at minus $17/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 204: Benzene: H2 May/June spread bid at minus $23/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 203: Benzene: July offer at $895/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 202: Benzene: July bid at $880/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 201: Benzene: June offer at $883/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 200: Benzene: June bid at $865/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 199: Benzene: H1 June offer at $876/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 97: Benzene: H1 Jun FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 96: Benzene: H2 May FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 95: Benzene: H1 May FOB SEA pegged at FOB Korea minus $11/mt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 94: Benzene: H2 Jul pegged at $888/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 93: Benzene: H1 Jul pegged at $885/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 92: Benzene: H2 Jun pegged at $876/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 91: Benzene: H1 Jun pegged at $874/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 90: Benzene: H2 May pegged at $863/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 89: Benzene: H1 May pegged at $861/mt FOB Korea 3kt
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 81: Benzene: June bid at $883/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 80: Benzene: June bid at $860/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 78: Benzene: June/July spread bid at minus $17/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 77: Benzene: H2 May/June spread bid at minus $25/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 76: Benzene: H1 June/July spread bid at minus $18/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 75: Benzene: H1 June/H2 June spread bid at minus $5/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 74: Benzene: July bid at $875/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
04/27/2015 PC0005 Heard 73: Benzene: June bid at $857/mt FOB Korea 3kt bb YOU
“Heards” propel market interface
PX: Bid July at $1,220/mt, CFR nb/tw/dl, Asia origin,
origin excluding all ME, India and China, T/T 30 days
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX:Jun/Jul bid heard at $13/mt CFR TND, Asia origin
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: Offer Any July at $1,238/mt, CFR nb/tw/dl, Asia origin,
origin excluding all ME, India and China, L/C 30 days, valid for 5 min
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
---------after MOC peg
PX: Offer Any July at $1,240/mt, CFR nb/tw/dl, Asia origin,
origin excluding all ME, India and China, L/C 30 days, valid for 5 min
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: Bid 1H July at $1,220/mt, CFR nb/tw/dl, Asia origin,
origin excluding all ME, India and China, L/C 30 days
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
---------after morning peg
PX: Jul bid heard at $1,215/mt CFR TND, Asia origin, T/T 30 days
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: Bid 1H July at $1,210/mt, CFR nb/tw/dl, Asia origin,
origin excluding all ME, India and China, L/C 30 days
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: H2 Jun bid heard at $1,225/mt CFR TND, Asia origin, 5kt
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: H1 Jun offer heard at $1,238/mt CFR Ningbo, Asia origin, if form e, +1.75% return
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: H1 Jul bid heard at $1,220/mt CFR Ningbo/Dalian/Jiangyin, Asia origin(exluding India/China/ME and Iran), L/C 30 days
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX: H2 Jun bid heard at $1,225/mt CFR TND, Asia origin, 5kt
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
yahoo IM: platts_asia_px)
PX : 1h June offer at 1236 cfr NB, asia, if form e, +1.75% return
(for details contact Michelle Kim at [email protected] or +65-6530-6425;
Prices based on latest information sourced from the market, up to the close of the assessment window at 4:30 pm Singapore time.
More information can be found on the Platts Petrochemicals Methodology Guide http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/asian-petrochemicals-methodology.pdf
Platts PX assessments
34
Daily: FOB Korea, CFR Taiwan/China
Weekly: CFR Southeast Asia
Prices based on latest information sourced from the market, up to the close of the assessment window at 4:30 pm Singapore time.
More information can be found on the Platts Petrochemicals Methodology Guide http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/asian-petrochemicals-methodology.pdf
China’s annual GDP % growth seen slowing in the coming years
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00-10 (a) 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f
GDP % growth, annual
Source: World Bank Notes: e-estimate, f-forecast
38
Asia benzene volatility returns
Asian benzene fluctuates within
$1,100-1,500/mt range in 2013
Range widens to $600-1,450/mt in
2014.
2015 benzene ranges from $500-870/mt
$/mt
13 Jan’15: $544/mt
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Benzene FOB Korea marker
39
Asia PX rising from 6-year lows?
$/mt
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Paraxylene FOB Korea Marker
Asian Contract Price reached major settlement only two times in 2014: March and October • Major settlement also reached for February 2015 at $710/mt CFR Asia.
• Increased price/market volatility main reason for lack of settlements.
Term contract premiums flipped to discount for 2015 on increased supply/price fluctuations • Term discounts for PX Asian Contract Price participating buyers were set
at $4/mt on a CFR basis, while discounts for non-ACP buyers were agreed at $2/mt, CFR.
• In comparison, cash differentials for term year 2014 ranged from parity to a premium of $2/mt.
40
Volatile PX prices: ACP non-settlements and decreasing term contract premiums
Country Company Location Quarter 2014 2015 2016 2017
BZ PX BZ PX BZ PX BZ PX
China Sinopec Hainan Q1 600
Ningbo Zhongjin Ningbo Q1 <200 1600
PetroChina Pengzhou H1 680
Sinopec Zhenhai - 1600
China Total 0 2880 200 1600 0 0 0 0
S.Korea SK Innovation (July) Incheon Q3 450 1300
SK Global Chemical/JX Nippon Oil (June)
Ulsan Q3 300 1000
Samsung Total (June) Daesan Q3 420 1000
GS Caltex/Taiyo Oil/Showa Shell
Yeosu - 400 1000
S. Korea Total 1170 3300 400 1000
India ONGC (Aug/Sep) Mangalore Q3 270 900
Reliance Dahej, Gujarat Q1 500 2200
Indian Oil Group Vadodara, Gujarat
Q1 400
India Total 270 900 500 2200
SEA Jurong Aromatics (Q3) Singapore Q2 400 800
PetroViet Vietnam Q2 240 700
PTT Global Chemicals Thailand
SEA Total 400 800 240 700
Total PX start up in 2015: 3.8 million mt
46
New PTA plant start ups Country Company Location 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China Xianglu Zhangzhou. Gulei 3,000 1,500
Shenghong Jiangsu, Lianyungang
1,500
Yisheng No. 4 Ningbo, Zhejiang 2,200
BP No. 3 Zhuhai, Guangdong 1,250
Hengli No. 3 Dalian, Liaoning 2,200
Sanfangxiang No. 2 Jiangyin, Jiangsu 1,200
Chengda Chendu, Sichuan 1,200
Yisheng No. 2 Yangpu, Hainan 2,200
China Prosperity No. 2 Jiangyin, Jiangsu 2,200
Jiaxing Petrochemical No. 2
Jiaxing, Zhejiang 1,500?
Formosa No. 2 Ningbo, Zhejiang 1,500
Mitsubishi No. 2 Ningbo, Zhejiang 1,200
Sinopec Yizheng 2,000
Shaoxing Yuandong Shaoxing
China Total 10,600 5,650 8,400
India Reliance Dahej, Gujarat 1,200 1,200
JBF Mangalore 1,250
Indorama Ventures Tamil Nadu 1,000
Taiwan OPTC No. 3 Kuan Yin, Taoyuan 1,500
Total 10,600 10,800 9,400
Total PTA start up in 2015 10.8 mil mt
47
PTA prices fell steadily since 2011, only to rebound recently
Source: Platts data
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
PTA CFR China
48
China PX imports increasing
Source: Chinese Customs
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
China PX imports 2013-2014
49
US-to-China PX shipments
Source: Chinese Customs:
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Au
g-1
3
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
China imports of US origin PX (mt)
• New PTA capacity outstrips rise in PX
• Operating rates at existing and new downstream purified terephthalic acid plants sail up as one of key factors for paraxylene demand in Asia this year, given the addition of over 13 million mt/year of PTA capacity.
• New PTA capacity outstrips rise in PX capacity
• Heavy PX turnarounds to support Q2
• Slower Chinese economic growth lends uncertainties to PTA, PET runs
• New PTA capacity may not necessarily equate to a sharp overall increase in PX demand across Asia, as outlook for global demand and operating rates at downstream polyester and PET remains uncertain amid a slowdown in China's economic growth
China: Slowing China GDP growth rate & PMI limits SM demand
-1.00%
4.00%
9.00%
14.00%
19.00%
24.00%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
kt
China SM Demand(kt)
China GDP Growth Rate(%)
China SM Demand Growth Rates(%)
Source: World Bank, HSBC, Markit, KPIA
41.0
43.0
45.0
47.0
49.0
51.0
53.0
55.0
57.0
Jan
09
Jun
09
No
v 0
9
Ap
r 1
0
Sep
10
Feb
11
Jul 1
1
Dec
11
May
12
Oct
12
Mar
13
Au
g 1
3
Jan
14
Jun
14
No
v 1
4
Ap
r 1
5
China Monthly PMI
PMI Index
Linear (PMIIndex)
80
Global: Strong USD on tapering QE in US weakens Global Commodities Market Prices(CRB)
Yuan/USD exchange rates in 2014 Commodity CRB Index in 2014
Source: Bloomberg
‘Super Dollar’ trend may continue throughout 2015
Strong USD may press down global commodity market
prices in 2015
81
Energy: US Shale Gas Boom Triggers Output Competition between US and ME which pulls down crude prices
2009 2010 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total World 72.9 74.9 75 82.7 85.5 89.9 94.3 99.1
ME(OECD) 20.8 21.7 23 23.8 25.2 28.4 31.5 34.5
US 5.5 5.6 5.8 9.8 9.3 8.6 8.2 7.8
North America(OECD) 10.8 11.2 11.5 16.8 17 17.1 17.2 17.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Increasing Crude & Condensate Production on shale gas revolution
*Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy oil, field condensate etc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration(EIA)
Unit: million
barrels/day
Asia SM Price Review
Supply Drivers
Demand Drivers
Feedstock Drivers
Macro-Economic Drivers
Conclusion: Q2-Q3 2015 Asian SM Outlook
82
Agenda 6
83
SM Outlook in Q2-Q3 2015: Will Bullish SM market continue?
Period Q2-Q3 2015
Outlook Q2: Steady to Weak Q3: Firm to Stable
Bullish Factors Supply • Tight US-Asia SM supply • Permanent SD of NOC • Japan SM TA in Q2 • Taiwan SM TA in Q3 • Tight credit in China
Demand • Low inventory in China, short-covering • Steady to firm ABS import from China • High ABS OR • Steady to firm HIPS import from China • Increase China EPS exports • Solid refrigerator manufacturing • Steady real estate investment • Seasonal demand from ABS/PS in Q3
Feedstock • Firm ethylene • Stable to firm BZ
Macro-economy • Rebounding crude oil
Bearish Factors Supply • S. Korea SM TA ends • US-Asia SM arbitrage reopens(Asia>EU SM) • Good EBSM margin • Long SM SU balance