Plans for the Research and Testing Phase of the 2020 Census Presentation to: Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics December 3, 2010 Frank Vitrano U.S. Census Bureau
Feb 06, 2016
Plans for the Research and Testing Phase of the 2020 Census
Presentation to:
Council of Professional Associations on Federal StatisticsDecember 3, 2010
Frank VitranoU.S. Census Bureau
Agenda
2010 Census Update December Data Releases 2020 Planning – Organization 2020 Planning – Research and Testing Operational Design Alternatives
– Establishing Where to Count– Enumeration– IT and Operational Infrastructure
Policy and Communication Challenges Conclusion
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Completed data capture of all questionnaires to be included in the census counts on September 7.
Completed closeout of the Local Census Offices on November 12.
Completed the processing and review of all of the captured data, including count imputation and final review of the counts.
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2010 Census Update
Demographic Analysis Population Estimates (December 6) - These will be national totals broken down by age, gender, and black/non black status. These are not 2010 census data. These do attempt to estimate the population of 2010, but it uses birth registration data, death registration data, estimates of immigration and emigration, in and out migration. We've used this method throughout the decade and update these regularly.
American Community Survey five year period estimates (December 14) – This release will reflect the years 2005 through 2009. These will be very rich data describing characteristics related to social issues, education, marital status, and so on; economic issues, income, employment, occupation, and housing and demographic characteristics. They'll be released for the first time for areas with less than 20,000 people. 670,000 geographical areas will get their own estimates. These are not 2010 census data. These are from the American Community Survey and will continue to be released on an annual basis.
Population Totals for the Country (by December 31)- These data are from the 2010 Decennial Census. The release will also include the state population totals and the updated number of members of the House of Representatives by state.
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December Data Releases
The Census Bureau has proposed two key organizational changes in order to better focus on conducting a more efficient and effective 2020 Decennial Census.
1. New 2020 Directorate – Will be in charge of planning the 2020 Census.
2. Research and Methodology Directorate – Will focus on the evaluation of alternative methodologies for conducting surveys and censuses.
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2020 Planning -Organization
New 2020 Directorate
It will start out as a small directorate, and then over the years grow into that organization needed to lead the Census Bureau in completing the 2020.
At its inception it will contain the American Community Survey Office and a small research and planning division.
Much of its early work will be developing an integrated plan for research and testing , in addition to defining effective integration with the new research directorate, the CFO's office, and the IT enterprise activities.
A central focus of the 2020 planning will be efforts to reduce the cost of the census. We also want to gain efficiencies in the planning process by using the ACS as a principal test vehicle for the 2020.
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2020 Planning -Organization
Research and Methodology Directorate A sustainable, vibrant research directorate requires that its researchers ally with
program staff and collaborate with experts outside the Bureau to work on key problems:
To contribute to the overall institution, the researchers need to find generalizable knowledge through their work, allowing a solution discovered in one area to be applicable in others.
To contribute to the programs, the researchers need to create real innovation within practical work processes, solving economic and social measurement problems.
To be sustainable as an enterprise resource, the Research Directorate must be a valuable and valued partner to program areas.
To complement this internal effort, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Census Bureau have announced a research solicitation, which invites teams of researchers from U.S. universities to submit proposals for conducting long-term interdisciplinary research and educational activities on methodological questions of interest to the research community.
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2020 Planning -Organization
Research and Testing
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2020 Planning
· Support Agile Decision-making· Reuse Data· Leverage Systems and Methods· Leverage Partnerships· Support Organizational Solutions· Build a 21st Century Workforce
Guiding Principles for the 2020 Census2020 Census Mission
The 2020 Census will conduct a census of population and housing and disseminate data to the President, the States, and the American people.
A Complete andAccurate Census
Embraced andValued Results
An Efficient2020 Census
A Well-Managed 2020 Census Program
An efficient and quality census that counts people, once, only once, and in the right place.
2020 Census Goals
· Reduce Cost· Maintain Quality· Reduce Field Timeline· Tailor Response Modes· Leverage ACS· Support Continual Frame Updating
2020 Census Vision
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The Challenge and the Target Census Cost per Housing Unit (2010$)
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Notes: Adjusted for projected FY 2010 savings of $1.6 billion; projected cost per housing unit for 2020 assumes no change in design and real cost growth from 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 averaged (58.3%); includes the costs for the 2002-2012 MAF/TIGER Enhancement Program and 2001-2013 American Community Survey.(*) One of the goals of the 2020 Census is to conduct the census at a lower cost than the 2010 Census (per housing unit on an inflation-adjusted basis), while maintaining quality.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (estd) 2020 (proj)$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$81 (short form only)
$81(target*)
$14
$29 $40
$70
$98
$156
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Four Cost-Drivers
Cost-Driver #2
Cost-Driver #1
Cost-Driver #3
Cost-Driver #4
Increased population diversity and decreased willingness to cooperate with self-response and non-response follow-up
Limited 2000-2009 updating of the Master Address File and TIGER maps led to a design incorporating “last-minute” (2009) updates
Failure to link acquisitions, schedule, and budget
Demand for absolute accuracy
Increased population diversity and decreased willingness to cooperate with self-response and non-response follow-up
Expanding, automating, and tailoring self-response methods, including an Internet option, and using administrative records for follow-up
Cost-Driver #1Potential Cost-ReducerCensus
Census Form
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
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Cost-Driver #2 Potential Cost-Reducer
Limited 2000-2009 updating of the Master Address File and TIGER maps led to a design incorporating “last-minute” (2009) updates
Continuously updating the address frame and targeting address canvassing and map updates using multiple sources and geographic partnerships, as described in FY 2011 Geographic Support Systems budget initiative
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
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• The Geographic Support System (GSS) initiative is an integrated program of improved address coverage, spatial feature updates, and enhanced quality assessment and measurement of address and spatial data and systems.
• The objective of the GSS initiative is to enable continuous update of the, Census Bureau’s Master Address File/Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (MAF/TIGER). This will ensure that more accurate and timely address and geospatial data is available for Census Bureau programs such as the American Community Survey, other current surveys, and other small areas estimates programs. The GSS initiative will also support the goal of a targeted (vs.nationwide) address canvassing for the 2020 Decennial Census.
• To maintain a current and complete inventory of streets, roads, accurate geographic boundaries, and addresses in the MAF/TIGER database the Census Bureau obtains address and geographic information from many external sources, including the U.S. Postal Service, state, local, and tribal governments. The GSS initiative supports ongoing geographic partnership efforts with federal, state, local, and tribal governments as well as commercial entities so that the Census Bureau can acquire the most up to date address and spatial information available.
GSS Initiative
Cost-Driver #3 Potential Cost-Reducer
Failure to link acquisitions, schedule, and budget
A rolling approach to planning, budget, and schedule
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
Cost-Driver #3 Potential Cost-Reducer
Failure to link acquisitions, schedule, and budget
Strong program management strategies to reduce program risk
Identify sourcing and acquisition strategies at beginning of lifecycle
Use a rolling budget approach and successive approximation to continuously refine annual estimate
Develop a 2020 integrated schedule covering all projects throughout full lifecycle of program
Use performance information from the strategic to the project level to adjust resources and activities
Build on 2010 experience and establish a risk register and management process from beginning
Identify needed skill sets and gaps, as part of broader Census Bureau assessment
Align governance with major design components
Roll out plans early to oversight entities, the Advisory Committees, and to other stakeholders for feedback
Acquisition Management
Budget Management
Schedule Management
Performance Management
Risk Management
Human Capital Management
Governance and Transition Management
Communications Management
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
Cost-Driver #3 Potential Cost-Reducer
Failure to link acquisitions, schedule, and budget
Full-Life Cycle Work Breakdown Structure
Program Management
Systems Engineering
Frame EnumerationResponse
ProcessingData
ProductsEvaluative Programs
Infrastructure
2020 Census WBS
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
Cost-Driver #4 Potential Cost-Reducer
Demand for absolute accuracy
Building consensus among stakeholders regarding tradeoff between accuracy and cost
Race and Ethnic Advisory Committees
2020 Census Advisory Committee
State, Local, and Tribal Governments
American Public
Business/IndustryData Centers
Census Information CentersDOC IG
GAO
OMB
Congress National Academy of Sciences
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Potential Solutions To The Four Cost-Drivers
Operational Design AlternativesDrive the Research
Establishing Where to CountEnumerationIT and Operational
Infrastructure
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Establishing Where to CountThree Options
No CanvassingTargeted CanvassingFull Canvassing
Continuous Frame Updating
Supplemented by a full address canvassing in 2019
Supplemented by a targeted address canvassing in 2019
All options: continuous updating of address and spatial information in the MAF-TIGER database along with
expanding the list of updating sources
No (special) address canvassing for the 2020 Census
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
EnumerationSix Options
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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Multi-mode Contact
Visit Then Records
Records Then Visit
Near Paperless Records-basedTraditional +
Internet
Enumeration
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IT and Operational InfrastructureThree Options
HybridDecentralized Centralized
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Modification of current approach
Local Census Offices494
Modest HQ IT Improvements
HybridDecentralized Centralized
IT and Operational Infrastructure
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HybridDecentralized Centralized
IT and Operational Infrastructure
Just a small number of depots (Logistics Support Centers)
Centralized approach to managing through automating field work
Shared IT platforms
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HybridDecentralized Centralized
Centralized management where feasible due to geographic challenges
Shared IT platforms
IT and Operational Infrastructure
Fewer Local Census Offices
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Six Key Operational Design Alternatives
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EnumerationResearch Questions
What is the best mix of modes and strategies by demographics and geography?
What contact frames can be linked to the physical address?
What technology will be feasible for self-enumeration in 2020?
How can household follow-up be improved or eliminated?
What language services and technologies are needed?
Self-Response Research
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EnumerationResearch Questions
How can we develop and maintain an independent administrative records database?
Non-Response Research with Administrative Records
How can administrative records be used to minimize census field work?
What is the quality and the coverage of responses supplied by administrative records?
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IT and Operational InfrastructureResearch Questions
What technologies will be available to support IT and field infrastructure?
How can we effectively automate and streamline field operations to take advantage of design changes?
How can we modernize universe control, HQ management, data processing?
What are our workload management system options and how can we best acquire and implement them?
How can we use available technology to improve QC?
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Establishing Where to CountResearch Questions
How can we build a usable statistical model for Master Address File (MAF) errors, error components,
and their magnitude?
How can the model be used to measure the quality of the Master Address File?
How can we improve Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) procedures for compatibility with continual updating, improved quality measurement, and expanded partnerships with local governments, and a targeted address canvassing operation?
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Policy and Communication Challenges
Cost versus Quality Tradeoff Meeting Stakeholder Expectations
Public Concern about Privacy and Confidentiality
Public Confidence in the Census
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Conclusions
The purpose of the research and testing phase is to determine how much change is possible; critical design decisions are required by 2015 to avoid past problems To what extent can the 2020 Census target address canvassing in 2019? How will we collect and integrate respondent information (which
response modes will we use and to what extent will we use administrative records)?
What will be the extent of field infrastructure (in other words, how far should we go toward centralization)?
Investment is required early in the cycle to reduce cost and risk as the decade progresses (late design changes add risk and cost)
The more substantial a change to the decennial design that is contemplated, the earlier research must be conducted.
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