Planning for the next generation of satellite missions in …ipwg/meetings/bologna-2016/Bologna2016_Orals/2-3... · Planning for the next generation of satellite missions in the United

PlanningforthenextgenerationofsatellitemissionsintheUnitedStates.

qEarthScienceandApplicationsfromSpace– ESASqSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup- SPRWG

ChristianKummerowColoradoStateUniversity

8thIPWGand5thIWSSMJointWorkshopBologna,3-7October,2016

ESAS2017

§ Sponsors:o NASA—EarthScienceDivisiono NOAA—NESDISo USGS—Climate&LandUseChange(landimaging)

• Thesurveywillalsohavecloseconnectionswiththeagenciescarryingoutinsituandotherrelevantprograms

§ WithintheAcademy:o Collaboration(includingstaff)oftheSpaceStudiesBoard(lead)

withtheBoardonAtmosphericSciencesandClimate,BoardonEarthSciencesandResources,OceanStudiesBoard,PolarResearchBoard,andWaterSciencesandTechnologyBoard.

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• NASA: Hasabacklog of missions recommended in theinauguralsurveyand increased responsibility—without commensurate budgetincreases— starting after theJPSS-1 erafor vertical profiles ofstratospheric and uppertropospheric ozone, solar irradiance, Earthradiation budgetmeasurements,andaltimetry(beyondJason-3).

• NOAA: Stabilizing the weather satellite portfolio and avoiding apotentialgap between theNPPspacecraft and the first of thenext-generation POESsystems, JPSS-1, is a top priority.“Climate”-relatedinstrumentsmovingtoNASA.

• USGS: Landsat-8launchedFeb.2013.USGSinterestedinfuturecapabilitiesforasustainedland-imagingimagingprogram.However,Landsat-9isprojectedtobeanear-rebuildofL-8forlaunchinin2023,possiblyacceleratedto2021toaccountfor3-yeardesignlifeofthethermalinfraredsensor,TIRS.

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SettingforESAS2017

ESAS2017—OverarchingTasks• Assess progressin addressing themajor scientific and application

challengesoutlined in the2007 Earth ScienceDecadal Survey.

• Develop aprioritized list of top-level scienceand applicationobjectivestoguide space-based Earth observationsovera10-yearperiod commencing approximately atthestart of fiscal year 2018(October 1, 2017).

• Identify gaps and opportunities in the programs of record at NASA,NOAA, and USGS in pursuit of the top-level science and applicationchallenges—including space-based opportunities that provide bothsustained and experimental observations.

• Recommend approachestofacilitate thedevelopmentof a robust,resilient, and appropriately balanced U.S. program of Earthobservationsfromspace.Consider:Sciencepriorities,implementation costs,new technologies and platforms,interagencypartnerships,international partners,andthein situ and othercomplementary programs carried out atNSF,DoE, DoA, DoD.

• FindingsduebyJuly2017 4

ESAS2017vs.ESAS2007• Nolonger appropriate tobaserecommendationson anaspirational

budget

• Science-basedvs.Mission-based

• Congressionally-mandatedindependent cost appraisal andtechnicalevaluation(CATE) for big ticket items

• Likely that the science will be “valued” toavoidhaving onerecommendedactivity grow at expenseofall others

• Increasedopportunities toconsider “new space”ideas—new players,smaller and less costly platforms, constellations, hosted payloads-- Challenge:developingcredibleevaluationsoftheirpotential

• Improved consideration ofinternational partners

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SurveyInitialRFIIssuedinlateSeptember2015toinformthesteering

committeeandtheorganizationofthepanels:

1. WhatarethekeychallengesorquestionsforEarthSystemScience acrossthespectrumofbasicresearch,appliedresearch,applications,and/oroperationsinthecomingdecade?

2. Whyarethesechallenge/questionstimelytoaddressnowespeciallywithrespecttoreadiness?

3. Whyarespace-basedobservationsfundamentaltoaddressingthesechallenges/questions?

• >200responsesat:www.nas.edu/esas20176

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ESAS2017StudyPanelsI. GlobalHydrologicalCyclesandWaterResources

Themovement,distribution,andavailabilityofwaterandhowthesearechangingovertime

II. WeatherandAirQuality:MinutestoSubseasonalAtmosphericDynamics,Thermodynamics,Chemistry,andtheirinteractionsatlandandoceaninterfaces

III. MarineandTerrestrialEcosystemsandNaturalResourceManagementBiogeochemicalCycles,EcosystemFunctioning,Biodiversity,andfactorsthatinfluencehealthandecosystemservices

IV. ClimateVariabilityandChange:SeasonaltoCentennialForcings andFeedbacksoftheOcean,Atmosphere,Land,andCryospherewithintheCoupledClimateSystem

V. EarthSurfaceandInterior:DynamicsandHazardsCore,mantle,lithosphere,andsurfaceprocesses,systeminteractions,andthehazardstheygenerate

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Marine&

Terrestrial

Eco-systems

ClimateVariabilityandChange

Weather:Minutes

to

Sub-seasonal

EarthSurface&Interior

GlobalHydrological

Cycles

&Water

Resources

CarbonCycleIntegratingTheme

WaterCycleIntegratingTheme

ExtremeEventsIntegratingTheme

Technology&InnovationsCross-Cut

Applications’ScienceCross-Cut

WORK

INGGR

OUPS*

ESAS2017Panels

*Tentative9

ESAS2017SteeringCommitteeDr.WaleedAbdalati,Co-ChairUniversityofColoradoBoulder-------------------------------------------Mr.StevenJ.BattelBattelEngineering

Dr.StaceyW.BolandJetPropulsionLaboratory

Dr.RobertD.BraunGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology

Dr.ShuyiS.ChenUniversityofMiami

Dr.WilliamE.DietrichUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley

Dr.ScottC.DoneyWoodsHoleOceanographicInst.

Dr.ChristopherB.FieldCarnegieInstitutionforScience

Dr.HelenA.FrickerScrippsInst.ofOceanography

Dr.WilliamB.GailGlobalWeatherCorporation

Dr.SarahT.GilleScrippsInst.ofOceanography

Dr.DennisL.HartmannUniversityofWashington

Dr.DanielJ.JacobHarvardUniversity

Dr.AnthonyC.JanetosBostonUniversity

Dr.EveretteJosephUniversityatAlbany,SUNY

Dr.MollyK.MacauleyResourcesfortheFuture

Dr.JoyceE.PennerUniversityofMichigan

Dr.SorooshSorooshianUniversityofCalifornia,Irvine

Dr.GraemeL.StephensJetPropulsionLaboratory

Dr.ByronD.TapleyTheUniversityofTexasatAustin

Dr.W.StanleyWilsonNOAA/NESDIS,Ret.

SteeringCommitteeStaff-----------------------------------Dr.ArthurCharo, StudyDirectorMs.LaurenEverett, ProgramOfficerMr.CharlesHarris, ResearchAssociateDr.MichaelMoloney, Director,SpaceStudiesBoard

NOAASpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG) TermsofReference

BACKGOUND

•ThecurrentUSweathersatelliteprogramofrecord(POR)providesforcontinuousandevolvingessentialsatelliteservicestoweatherandspaceweathermissionstothe2020sandbeyond.

•TheservicesprovidedinthePORwillfallbelowdesiredassurancelevelsatvariousdates(dependingontheservice)fromapproximately2024to2032.

•Thecurrentconstellationcarrieshighbudgetrequirementsandleavessignificantunmetneedsbehind.

•TheUSGovernmentintendstocontinueweathersatelliteservicesfortheindefinitefutureandtocontinuouslybringnewcapabilitiesintooperationthatpromisetosavelivesindangerousweatherincidents,improveonwarningsofenvironmentalevents,andcontributetoeconomicgrowth.

•Giventhelongtimelinesrequiredforsatelliteacquisition,itisnecessarytomakemajordecisionsaboutnextgenerationsystemstofollowthePORbeginninginFY2017.

TheOfficeofSpaceArchitectureandAdvancedPlanning(OSAAP)withintheNationalEnvironmentalSatelliteDataandInformationService(NESDIS)isconductinganarchitecturestudyinFY16andFY17todeterminethemostcosteffectivespacesegmentarchitecturesforperformingNOAAweather,spaceweather,andenvironmentalremotesensing(excludinglandmapping)missions.Theobjectives,scope,andproductsofthisNOAASatelliteObservingSystemArchitecture(NSOSA)studyaresummarizedintheNSOSAstudyTermsofReference(TOR).

TheSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG)

TheSpacePlatformRequirementsWorkingGroup(SPRWG)willdetermineneedsandrelativeprioritiesforweather,spaceweatherandenvironmentalremotesensing(excludinglandmapping)space-basedobservationsintheepochof2030insupportoftheNSOSAstudyArchitectureDevelopmentTeam(ADT).Thepriorities,asspecifiedintheNSOSATOR,willbeNOAAoperationalfunctionsfirst,followedbyNOAAnon-operationalfunctions.TheSPRWGhasnodecisionauthoritybeyondthedeliverablesdefinedwithinthisTOR.

SPRWGFunctions: TheSPRWGwillworkinclosecoordinationwiththeADTlead,andADTmembersidentifiedbytheADTlead,indevelopmentofthefollowingproducts.

ValueModel: TheSPRWGwillparticipateindevelopingtheuservaluemodelandwillparticipateindevelopingandreviewingstudyproductsasdiscussedbelow.

Tohaveanagilesystem,NOAAneedsamodelthattrades“value”ofanoperationalmission,orimprovementstoamission,againsttheprojectedcost.

Assumingthatsomeminimumcapacitymustexistfortoday’soperationalfunctions,theSPRWGischargedwithdevelopingthevaluemodelthatrankstodaysaswellaspotentialnewmeasurementsaswellasthevalueofimprovingthemfroma“minimumacceptable”levelto“expected(today’scapabilities)”tothe“maximumeffective”levelforeachsetofobservations– i.e.the“valuemodel”suchthattheoptimaldesigncanalwaysbefoundgivenarealistic“cost”modelandanavailablebudget.

TheSPRWGwilldothisinthreeiterationstoallowforfeedbackbetweenthe“value”modelandthe“cost”model.Currentlyonseconditeration.

TheGoals

I.GlobalHydrologicalCyclesandWaterResourcesThemovement,distribution,andavailabilityofwaterandhowtheseare

changingovertime

1. ANAP.BARROS,DukeUniversity,Co-Chair2. JEFFDOZIER,UniversityofCalifornia,Co-Chair3. EFIFOUFOULA,UniversityofMinnesota4. ANDREARINALDO,Ecole Polytechnique Federale deLausanne5. ERICF.WOOD,PrincetonUniversity6. DARAENTEKHABI,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology7. GRAHAME.FOGG,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis8. JOHND.BOLTEN,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter9. VENKATLAKSHMI,UniversityofSouthCarolina10. NEWSHAAJAMI,StanfordUniversity11. TERRIHOGUE,ColoradoSchoolofMines12. DAVIDC.GOODRICH,USDA-ARS13. EDWINWELLES,Deltares USAInc.14. JEFFREYS.KARGEL,UniversityofArizona15. CHRISTIANKUMMEROW,ColoradoStateUniversity

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II.WeatherandAirQuality:MinutestoSubseasonalAtmosphericDynamics,Thermodynamics,Chemistry,andtheirinteractionsat

landandoceaninterfaces

1. SteveAckerman(Co-chair),UniversityofWisconsin2. NancyBaker,NavalResearchLaboratory(Co-Chair)3. StanleyBenjamin,NOAA-EarthSystemsResearchLaboratory4. MariaPirone,HarrisCorp.5. ElizabethBarnes,ColoradoStateUniversity6. Xubin Zeng,UniversityofArizona7. MarkBourassa,FloridaStateUniversity8. JulieThomas,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography9. DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsionLaboratory10. BryanDuncan,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter11. CharlesKolb,AerodyneResearchCorp.12. ArmisteadRussell,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology13. PhilipArdanuy,INNOVIMCorp.14. Ying-HwaKuo,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch15. PaulMenzel,UniversityofWisconsin

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IV.ClimateVariabilityandChange:SeasonaltoCentennialForcings andFeedbacksoftheOcean,Atmosphere,Land,andCryosphere

withintheCoupledClimateSystem

1. CAROLANNECLAYSON,WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution,Co-Chair2. VENKATACHALAMRAMASWAMY,NOAAGeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory,Co-Chair3. ARLYNE.ANDREWS,NOAAEarthSystemResearchLaboratory4. ENRIQUECURCHITSER,RutgersUniversity5. LEE-LUENGFU,JetPropulsionLaboratory6. GUIDOGROSSE,AlfredWegenerInstitute7. RANDALD.KOSTER,NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter8. SONIAM.KREIDENWEIS,ColoradoStateUniversity9. EMILIOF.MORAN,MichiganStateUniversity10. CORAE.RANDALL,UniversityofColorado,Boulder11. PHILIPJ.RASCH,PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory12. ERICJ.RIGNOT,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine13. CHRISTOPHERS.RUF,UniversityofMichigan14. ROSSJ.SALAWITCH,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark15. AMYK.SNOVER,UniversityofWashington16. JULIENNEC.STROEVE,NationalSnowandIceDataCenter17. BRUCEA.WIELICKI,NASALangleyResearchCenter18. GARYW.YOHE,WesleyanUniversity 17

SPRWGSubgroups– Oceans(NOS,NMFS,OAR)

• RichEdwing,MichaelFord(Chair),BobAtlas,PamEmch,JimYoe– Weather/climate(NWS,OAR)

• Shortterm(nowcasting,GOEStypeofproduct,etc.)– GerryDittberner,ChrisVelden (Chair),KevinSchrab,SteveGoodman,

SteveAckerman• NWPandlongerscales(fewhourstotwoweeksandbeyond)

– JimYoe (Chair),BobAtlas,MitchGoldberg,LisaCallahan,TomVonderHaar.,ChrisKummerow.

– Spaceweather(NWS)• TomBerger(Chair),DanBaker,LisaCallahan

– AnthesandGail(overviews,contextsetting,international,commercial,communications)