Page 1
Planning for the Ecological Consequences of Climate Change in the Greater Yellowstone
Area
Molly Cross, Ph.D.Molly Cross, Ph.D.Wildlife Conservation SocietyWildlife Conservation [email protected] @WCS.org
Greater Yellowstone Area Clean Air Partnership meetingGreater Yellowstone Area Clean Air Partnership meetingNovember 3, 2009November 3, 2009
Page 2
Talk outline
• Past and future climate changes in the GYA
• Current and potential ecological responses
• Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes
Page 3
Talk outline
• Past and future climate changes in the GYA
• Current and potential ecological responses
• Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes
Page 4
Climate changes over last 100 years
(source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR4 report 2007)
Page 5
Temp. Trend (°F/yr)
(source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)
Trend in Annual Mean Temperature 1961-2006 (°F/yr)
0.11
0.07
0.04
0
-0.04
-0.07
-0.11
Historic changes in the GYA
Page 6
Dec-Jan-Feb
Trends in Seasonal Mean Temperatures 1961-2006 (°F/yr)Mar-Apr-May
Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov
0.11
0.07
0.04
0
-0.04
-0.07
-0.11
Temp. Trend (°F/yr)
0.11
0.07
0.04
0
-0.04
-0.07
-0.11
Temp. Trend (°F/yr)
Historic changes in the GYA
(source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)
Page 7
Trend in Annual Precipitation 1961-2006 (mm/yr)
Precip. Trend (mm/yr)
Historic changes in the GYA
(source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)
Page 8
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May
Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov
Trends in Seasonal Precipitation 1961-2006 (mm/yr)
Historic changes in the GYA
(source: PRISM climate data from the ClimateWizard GIS tool, E. Girvetz)
Page 9
Future temperature changes
From: S. Gray
Page 10
Bradley (2009)
Future precipitation changes
Page 11
Future precipitation changes
Bradley (2009)
Page 12
• Warmer temperatures +3-7F by 2040
• Precipitation changes less certain – possible in winter, in summer
• More frequent extreme events
• Decreased extreme cold events
Future changes for Western U.S.
Page 13
Talk outline
• Past and future climate changes in the GYA
• Current and potential ecological responses
• Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes
Page 14
Changing climate likely to influence:
Ecological responses
• Snow, ice and water
• Timing of spring events
• Disturbances
• Vegetation
• Wildlife
Page 15
Snow, ice and water:Decreased snowpack
Linear trend in April 1 snow water equivalent (1950-2000)
Mote 2003
Page 16
Snow, ice and water:Decreased snowpack
Percent snow depth changes in March (2041-2070 compared to 1961-1990)
Analysis by Plummer et al. 2006 in IPCC 2007 AR4 report
Page 17
Snow, ice and water:Melting glaciers
Page 18
Snow, ice and water:Melting glaciers
Page 19
Snow, ice and water:Altered stream flows
• Increased winter flows
• Diminished summer and fall flows
Page 20
J. Bailey
Timing of spring:Earlier spring runoff
Stewart et al. 2005
Page 21
Mark D. Schwartz
dirttime.ws
Timing of spring: Plant and animal phenology
Page 22
Disturbances:More frequent & severe wildfires
Westerling et al. 2006
Page 23
Jeff Hicke 2004
Disturbances:More pest outbreaks
Page 24
Changing vegetation: Treeline species
Schrag et al (2008)
Subalpine firEngelmann
spruce Whitebark pine
Current Climate
Increased Temperature
+ Precipitation
~43% 17% ~29% 5% ~12% .02%
Page 25
Changing vegetation: Plant functional types
Unpublished research by Guy Pinjuv with Ron Neilson’s group at USFS Pacific Northwest
Research Station – contact [email protected] for
additional details
Page 26
Changing vegetation: Plant functional types
G. Pinjuvunpublished data
Page 27
Changing vegetation: Plant functional types
G. Pinjuvunpublished data
Page 28
Changing vegetation: Plant functional types
G. Pinjuvunpublished data
Page 29
Wildlife response: Adapt, move, go extinct?
Page 30
J. Kastner
How to make applicable to my system?
Uncertainty?Complexity?
Where to begin?
What to manage FOR?
Challenges facing naturalresource management
Page 31
Adapted from Millar et al. 2007, Ecological Applications and USFS Climate Change Resource Center
Reframing management goals
Increase RESISTANCE to change
Promote RESILIENCE to change
Enable ecosystems to RESPOND to change
Page 32
J. Kastner
How to make applicable to my system?
Uncertainty?Complexity?
Where to begin?
What to manage FOR?
Challenges facing naturalresource management
Page 33
Talk outline
• Past and future climate changes in the GYA
• Current and potential ecological responses
• Framework for planning natural resource management as climate changes
Page 34
CONVENED BY:
PARTICIPANTS: Academic, government agency and conservation NGO
researchers
GOAL: Develop a participatory and iterative framework for making
place-based climate change-informed management decisions.
Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation working group
Page 35
Adapted from www.cmar.csiro.au/research/mse/
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Page 36
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Cross et al. in prep.
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
TARGET:
Species Ecological process Ecosystem
Page 37
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
TARGETSPECIES / SYSTEM
SOCIO-ECONOMICDRIVERS
ECOLOGICALDRIVERS
CLIMATEDRIVERS
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 38
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
From Peterson et al. 2004
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 39
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 40
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Revisit ta
rget /
goal?
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 41
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Evaluate actions
Revisit ta
rget /
goal?
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 42
Select conservation targetand
Define management goal
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Build conceptual
model
Identify future
climate scenarios
Assessclimate change impacts
Identify intervention pointsand management actions
Evaluate actions
Identifyinformation needs
Develop action plan
Implementaction plan
Monitor and evaluate action effectiveness
Revisit ta
rget /
goal?
Cross et al. in prep.
Page 43
Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Northern U.S. Rockies
Ecological processesRiver flows
SpeciesGrizzly bearsWolverine
EcosystemsYellowstone RiverSagebrush steppe
Next steps:Testing the framework
Page 44
• Climate changes are already influencing hydrological and ecological systems
• We can anticipate future changes, but there remains uncertainty
• However, we already have enough information to begin proactive planning for climate change
A few summary points
Page 45
Climate Change and Wildlife Conservation Working Group:
G. Tabor (Center for Large Landscape Conservation, Y2Y)
E. Fleishman (UC-Santa Barbara)E. Zavaleta (UC-Santa Cruz)G. Hayward (USFS)S. Shafer (USGS) B. Petersen (UC-Santa Cruz)C. Enquist (TNC) J. Lawler (Univ. of Washington)M. Brooks (Southern Illinois University)L. Graumlich (Univ. of Arizona) C. Groves (TNC) L. Hansen (EcoAdapt) L. Hannah (Conservation International) D. Scott (University of Waterloo)J. Malcolm (Univ. of Toronto)R. Shaw (TNC)D. Bachelet (Oregon State Univ., USFS)M. Koopman (NCCSP)J. Weaver (WCS)
Funders:Kendall FoundationMarisla FoundationSurdna FoundationTurner FoundationHewlett FoundationWeeden Foundation
Thanks to collaborators + funders
Page 46
Thank you!!
Question, comments, suggestions??
Thank You!!
Questions?Comments?
B. Karesh, WCSB. Karesh, WCS
Page 47
Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and Northern U.S. Rockies
Ecological processesRiver flows
SpeciesGrizzly bearsWolverine
EcosystemsYellowstone RiverSagebrush steppe
Testing the framework
Page 48
Yellowstone River flows(ecological process)
To maintainYellowstonecutthroat trout
Select target and define management goal
Page 49
Yellowstone Riverflows
quantity, temperature, timing
grazingpractices
beaverripariancover
flood plainconditionupland forest
type/structure
snowpack
temperature + precipitation
groundwater
withdrawals(agri., urban)
impervioussurfaces
agriculturalpractices
urbangrowth
wildfire
forestmanagement
Build conceptual model
Page 50
snowpack
groundwater
withdrawals(agri., urban)
ripariancover
grazingpractices
beaver
flood plainconditionupland forest
type/structure
wildfire
forestmanagement
agriculturalpractices
impervioussurfaces
urbangrowth
Lower baseflowsWarmer water temps
Earlier spring peak
+
-
-
∆
-?
-
∆
-
?
?
-?
Initial climate scenario: Warmer & drier
warmer & drierclimate
Page 51
snowpack
warmer & drierclimate
groundwater
withdrawals(agri., urban)
ripariancover
grazingpractices
beaver
flood plainconditionupland forest
type/structure
wildfire
forestmanagement
agriculturalpractices
impervioussurfaces
urbangrowth+
-
-
∆
-?
-
∆
-
?
?
-?
Identify intervention points
Lower baseflowsWarmer water temps
Earlier spring peak
Page 52
Intervention PointsIntervention Points
Reduce livestockdensity
Fence riparian areas
Restore riparianvegetation
Increaseriparian shading
High flows
Peakedhydrograph
Maintainappropriate
water T
Desired ResponsesDesired ResponsesPotential ActionsPotential Actions
Build snow fencesIncrease local
snowpack
Purchase water rights Reducewithdrawals
Water conservation
Snowpackmanagement
Withdrawals
High elevationstreamflow
Beaverpopulations
Grazingpractices
Riparianvegetation
Impervioussurfaces
Install check dams
Increase rainretention
Reintroduce beaver
Reduce / remove roads
Cross et al, in review
Potential actions for initial climate scenario
Page 53
Examine actions across multiple scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Management Action 1
Management Action 2
Management Action 3
Management Action 4
MANAGEMENTRESPONSES
FUTURE CLIMATEIMPACTS
Page 54
From L. Scott Mills, University of Montana L.S. Mills
L.S. Mills
Altered species interactions