Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” “Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”. Recife, PE July 15th, 2009
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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”
Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro“Brazilian Power Sector Planning”
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPEInternational Colloquium
“Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power
Developments”
“Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na
Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”.Recife, PEJuly 15th, 2009
Energy Planning in Brazil
HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE
LONG TRANSMISSION LINES
INTENSIVE CAPITAL
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
HIGH INCERTANTIES
MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES
COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION
SEASONALITY
Brazilian Power Sector Planning
RISK ANALYSIS
FAIR TARIFF
DIVERSITY
INTEGRATION
ENERGY SECURITY
NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING
NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK
TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING
AUCTIONS
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Electric PowerTransmission
Biodiesel
PROGRAMMING VIEW
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD)
STRATEGY VIEW
LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD)
Planning Process
SOURCES 2005 2015 2030
Large Hydro Power Plants 68.6 99.0 156.3
Thermal Power Plants 16.9 24.3 39.9
Natural Gas 8.7 13.0 21.0
Nuclear 2.0 3.3 7.3
Coal 1.4 2.5 6.0
Other 4.8 5.5 5.5
Alternatives 1.4 5.5 20.3
Small Hydro 1.3 2.3 7.7
Wind - 1.4 4.7
Biomass 0.1 1.8 7.9
Imports + Other 13.6 13.3 8.4
TOTAL 100.5 142.1 224.9
Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW)
Source: PNE 2030
Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006
44.5
13.3
6.0
55.5
86.7
94.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Brazil (2005)
World (2003)
OECDCountries
(2003)
Renewables
Non - renewables
Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share
Energy Integration
NATURAL ENERGY INFLOW (p.u.)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
SUDESTE
SUL
NORDESTE
NORTE
ITAIPU
BELOMONTE
TAPAJÓS
MANAUS
MADEIRA
João Pessoa
Jacui
Porto Alegre
Florianópolis
Curitiba
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Paraíbado Sul
Uruguai
Vitória
BeloHorizonte
Itaipu
Grande
Paranaíba
Paraná/Tietê
Campo Grande
Iguaçu
Tocantins
Belém
São Francisco
Parnaíba
São Luís
Teresina
Fortaleza
Natal
Recife
Maceió
Aracajú
SalvadorCuiabá
Goiânia
Brasília
Paranapanema
Argentina
SE/CO - 190
S - 18
NE - 52N - 12
Source: ONS – oct/2007
Storage Capacity (GWmed)
Storage Capacity Evolution
Maximum Storage / Demand
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
ma
i/08
ma
i/09
ma
i/10
ma
i/11
ma
i/12
ma
i/13
ma
i/14
ma
i/15
ma
i/16
ma
i/17
ma
i/18
ma
i/19
ma
i/20
ma
i/21
ma
i/22
ma
i/23
SUDESTE
SUL
NORDESTE
NORTE
ITAIPU
B.MONTE
TAPAJOS
MANAUS
MADEIRA
4.0
00 k
m4.0
00 k
m
Long Transmission Lines
2008
2012
JirauS.Antônio
Araraquara N.IguaçuAtibaia
Cuiabá
Teles Pires
500 km
Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants
possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane
Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006
Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production
The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.
Harvest106
ton/year 106
ha
2007 495 6.9
2010 570 7.5
2015 715 9.1
2030 1,140 13.9
Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass
Production of sugar cane (millions of tons)
Technical Potential(TWh / year)
Generation technology Harvesting system 400 700 1.000
Backpressure cycle (current)
Without recovery 8.1 14.2 20.3
With recovery 116 20.4 29.1
Optimum backpressure cycle
Without recovery 24.3 42.6 60.8
With recovery 34.9 61 87.2
Condensation and extraction cycle
Without recovery 46.4 81.3 116.1
With recovery 77.5 135.6 193.7
Gasification of biomass and combined cycle
Without recovery 96.1 168.2 240.3
With recovery 142.2 248.8 355.5
Wind Power
Brazilian Wind Power Potential
• Brazilian Power Sector
•The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market
•Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.
Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)
1985 1989 1992 1994 1998 2000
Ø 112m4.500 kW
Ø 46m600 kW
Ø 37m500 kW
Ø 30m300 kW
Ø 15m50 kW
Ø 70m1.500 kW
Evolution of Wind Power Technology
Nuclear Energy
Source: INB, AIEA
Country 103 ton Share
Cazaquistan 957 21.0%
Australia 910 19.8%
South Africa 369 8.0%
USA 355 7.7%
Canada 332 7.2%
Brazil 309 6.7%
Namibia 287 6.3%
Subtotal 3,519 77.0%
Remainder 1,069 23.0%
World 4,588 100%
In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th)
Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003