Plan B Proposal: NOK 50 Billion Revolving Credit Facility
Sep 08, 2014
Plan B
Proposal: NOK 50 Billion Revolving Credit Facility
Executive Summary
The Icelandic Economy in Numbers
12.0%
7.2%
17.9%
17.9%
-11.0%
16.7%
-8.4%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Central Bank Policy Rate
Unemployment Rate
% Fiscal Budget Interest
% Fiscal Budget Health Care
Import Growth
Export Growth
GDP Growth
Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Iceland. Growth figures for 2009 (actual and projected), fiscal budget costs for 2010
Why a NOK Facility? Iceland and Norway share common heritage, geopolitcal interests and economic
ideals
Iceland is currently in a stalemate with the IMF, despite good faith offers to settle Icesave liabilities with the U.K. and Dutch governments
A NOK 50 billion revolving credit facility (RCF) would enable Iceland to rebuild its economy, normalize international business relations, protect the Nordic welfare state and maintain its credit rating
The facility would anchor a prudent economic plan designed to mitigate Norway´s risks as a lender, and offer more flexibility and greater certainty of success, at a lower cost, to Iceland, as a borrower, than the IMF program, due to a commitment fee and interest rate on only borrowed amounts
Alternatively, Iceland faces abandoning the IMF program, withdrawing offers for equitable and fair out-of-court settlement of the Icesave liabilities and maintaining capital controls, to the detriment of all parties involved
As an emerging economic power, Norway can take a leaderhip position in solving a pressing economic issue that is damaging relations between fellow NATO members and challenging the integrity and existence of institutions in the United Nations systems
The Economic Plan in Action
Action Time
1. Obtain a NOK revolving credit facility
2. Let Alþingi settle Icesave liabilities
3. Exchange government FX bonds
4. Lift foreign exchange controls
5. Lower Central Bank policy rates
6. Rebuild the economy
7. Maintain credit rating
8. Repay NOK revolving credit facility
Now
1-2 Months
1-6 Months
3-9 Months
6-9 Months
½-2 Years
2-7 Years
7-10 Years
Side-by-side Comparison
IMF Stand-by Agreement Plan B
Rigid due to inflexibility of IMF program
Expensive due to structure as a term loan and bulky draw-downs irrespective of financing needs
Uncertain as other parties are prevented from dispersing funds
Flexible due to structure of financing as an RCF
Economic due to low financing costs (interest rate on only borrowed funds, but commitment fee on remainder)
Certain, both in execution and probability of success, due to liquidity
Iceland and the IMF
The IMF and Iceland Iceland should be the “poster child” of the IMF and its rebuilding the
proudest achievement of the Fund Iceland privatized government-owned banks and firms
The country is a free market-based democracy, anchored on Alþingi, the world´s oldest parliament
The economy is one of the most transparent in the world
Its management of natural resources has fostered sustainable fisheries, green power generation and a clean environment
Even though a Stand-by Agreement was signed on November 19, 2008, intervention by the U.K. and Dutch governments has prevented dispursement of the SDR1.4 billion ($2.1 billion) facility Dispursements under the IMF facility are conditioned on settlement of
Icesave liabilities, on the terms demanded by the Dutch and U.K. Governments
Dispursements on other bi-lateral facilities are also conditioned on IMF dispursements, including the €1.8 billion facility with the Nordic countries
Iceland and the IMF (cont´d) On September 2, 2009, Iceland´s Alþingi passed law providing for the conditional
guarantee of the Icesave liabilities after lengthy negotiations
The liabilities arose from foreign branch deposits of a privately-owned Icelandic bank, (Landsbanki), which were managed in accordance with European directives, including the backing of a depositors’ insurance fund that was similarly structured to other depositors’ insurance funds
These deposits had investment grade ratings and Alþingi assigned them priority ranking in the emergency legislations following the bank collapse to protect depositors and their insurance funds
The net present value of the Icesave guarantee is equal to the debt of Landsvirkjun, Iceland´s national power company (Statkraft)
The guarantee is only conditioned on Iceland not waiving its rights as a sovereign nation, and even agreeing not to seek legal action against the use of terrorist legislations by the U.K. governement against it
By guaranteeing these liabilities, the government is assuming significant legal risks that could result in lawsuits by other creditors of Landsbanki for unjust enrichment
The refusal by the U.K. and Dutch governments to accept Iceland´s good faith offer as a satisfactory settlement has created a stalemate between Iceland and these countries, on one hand, and Iceland and the IMF, on the other hand
Iceland and the IMF (cont’d)
Despite lengthy delays in dispursements by the IMF, the Fund appears to be influencing monetary policy in Iceland, where high interest rates are maintained to prevent the value of the ISK from falling, even though capital controls are in place
Traditional IMF programs are not tailored to the needs of small economies, transparent countries or Nordic welfare states
Because small countries have high fixed costs (infrastructure, etc.) and limited economies of scale, there are natural limits as to how much governments can cut expenditures
Belt-tightening measures implemented by IMF programs (such as incresed taxation and cuts in spending) would be felt by an entire country that is transparent; countries with large “underground” or “blackmarket” activity, however, are only partially impacted
Cuts in health care spending, coinciding with increases in interest expenses of governments (due to high interest rates), as the case will be in Iceland in 2010, threatens the very social fabric of Nordic countries
The Economic Plan in Action
Economic Objectives Iceland has three (3) basic economic objectives
To reduce unemployment rate (which is currently 7.2%)
To restructure debt of Icelandic households (and firms)
To preserve its investment grade rating
Iceland can achieve these objectives by
Attracting foreign investment
Lowering interest rates
Limiting external borrowing
A 50 billion NOK revolving credit facility (RCF) would enable Iceland to achieve all of these objectives
By having sufficient foreign exchange liquidity, Iceland could gradually lift currency controls and attract new foreign investment
Lifting of currency controls would enable the Central Bank to lower its policy rate from the current 12% level and thus facilitate new lending to the real economy
Access to liquidity would enable Iceland to gain credibility with global capital markets and rating agencies
Stabilization of the ISK exchange rate would reduce debt burden of households (and corporations) which have taken on sigificant foreign currency debt
The Economic Plan in Action Obtain NOK 50 billion revolving credit facility (RCF)
NOK 50 billion represents the maximum amount that Iceland would need to borrow over the next three years; however, it is highly unlikely that the entire facility will be drawn upon
An RCF is a more suitable form of financing than a term loan facility (TLF), where the entire loan is drawn upon immediately, for a country that faces uncertain outlays, irrespective of if the TLF amount covers all contingencies
Since the RCF carries a low commitment fee, and charges an interest rate on only borrowed amounts, it offers greater flexibility at lower costs than a IMF-type Stand-by Agreement
An RCF would also strengthen Iceland´s position in global capital markets and remove uncertainties surrounding its investment grade rating
Consummate an exchange offer and discounted buyback of Republic of Iceland foreign currency bonds due in 2011 and 2012 for longer-dated securities
The exchange offer and the buyback have high probability of success with the NOK 50 billion RCF in place
Following the exchange offer and the buyback, Iceland would have no major debt maturities in the near future and facilitate refinancing of Landsvirkjun, whose debt is guaranteed by Iceland, but which Landsvirkjun can refinance on its own merits
The Economic Plan in Action (cont´d) Lift foreign currency exchange controls
A credit facility provides credible means for Iceland to lift foreign exchange controls
Even though capital controls have been in effect for about one year, controls would have to be eased gradually over the next three to nine months and progress monitored actively; initially, the easing would focus on stemming outflows with foreign currency auctions or exit taxes
Once foreign investors’ confidence has been rebuilt, annouced, but yet-to-be-closed investments such as hospitals, data centers and industrial facalities, in addition to other new investments, can be finalized
Longer term, the stabilization of the ISK will facilitate debt restructuring for Icelandic households and firms due to high proportion of foreign currency debt
The swap facility between the two central banks could be strengthened to mitigate risks to the parties
Lower interest rates Conditions for monetary easing and lowering of policy rates are created when
capital controls have been eased
Lower policy rates, which are currently 12%, will enable banks to resume lending and the private sector to restructure its debt
The Economic Plan in Action (cont’d) Rebuild the private sector of the economy
Easing of exchange controls and monetary policy will facilitate restructuring of household and corporate debt and provide access to new credit, locally in the near term, but internationally in the long term
Corporate debt would be restructured by reducing principal amount, lowering interest rates, converting debt into equity, selling non-core assets and raising new outside equity
Household debt would also be restructured, upon which mortgages would become non-recourse to the borrower
Easing of exchange controls will additionally
Attract new investment into capital and labor intensive industry and private equity capital for start-ups and established enterprisese in restructuring
Release pools of domestic liquidity that have remained untapped due to controls on the flow of capital
Relieve pressure off local pension funds that can now recycle foreign investments into the country and fully participate in the upside offered in recovery
Maintain investment grade credit rating
Maintenance of investment grade credit rating is both in Iceland and its creditors’ best interests
Combination of prudent fiscal policy and active balance sheet management with an RCF will be well received by both rating agencies and capital markets
Repay the NOK 50 billion revolving credit facility
The facility could be prepaid early by Iceland by either drawing upon funds from the IMF, under a renegotiated program with the Fund, or issuing a bond in international (or local NOK) bond markets
Alternatively, a combination of internally generated funds and market-based financing on investment grade rating terms would secure repayment of the facility in accordance with indicative terms
Why can foreign exchange controls be lifted?
Factors increasing supply of foreign currency Iceland would have siginficant foreign exchange liquidity with the RCF in
place
Iceland’s external position has improved considerably, with strong growth in exports and a siginficant decline in imports
Factors reducing demand for foreign currency With foreign exchange controls in effect for nearly one year, and an
established off-shore market in the ISK, a significant portion of short-term investors (“hot money”) has already exited
Local currency yields on Icelandic Government bonds are still significantly higher than for comparable Western countries
The off-shore and the on-shore ISK markets are converging with current difference of 10%, compared to a peak of 25%
Yields on €-denominated bonds of the Icelandic Government have fallen significantly and are converging with local currency bond yields
Private sector foreign currency debt to Icelandic banks is being restructured or converted into ISK
Government Bond Yields
8.4%
7.6%
4.1%3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Source: Bloomberg
Iceland Credit Default Swap Risk Premium
Source: Bloomberg
Why Iceland must lift foreign exchange
controls?
Foreign exchange controls violate the four freedoms
enshrined in the EEA agreement
As an economy with capital intensive industries, Iceland
will find it difficult to attract the new foreign investment it
needs unless controls are eased
Companies are holding onto foreign currency, rather than
recycling it into the domestic banking system, despite the
favorable trends in net exports
Financial Considerations
Estimated Financing Needs
Amounts 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
In ISK Billions
Budget Deficit (Surplus) 87.4 22.6 - 39.0 - 92.9 - 21.9
Foreign Debt Payments - 228.8 44.0 2.3 275.1
Total 87.4 251.4 5.0 - 90.6 253.2
Cumulative Total 87.4 338.8 343.8 253.2
In NOK Billions
Cumulative Total 4.0 15.3 15.6 11.5
Source: Data from Ministry of Finance. Excludes 2009 data, including cash.
Uses of Funds The RCF will be earmarked for refinancing, strengthenting
of reserves and general purposes, but Iceland is highly unlikely to borrow the entire NOK 50 billion amount
Peak funding requirements of Iceland will reach ISK 343.8 billion (NOK 15.6 billion) by the end of 2012
Projected budget deficits in 2010 and 2011 will total ISK 110 billion (NOK 5.0 billion) but would most likely be funded in the domestic market
Foreign principal debt payments in 2010-2103 of ISK 275 billion (NOK 12 billion) will most likely have to be funded, but with the RCF, Iceland can effect an exchange offer into longer debt and a discounted buyback, thereby siginficantly reducing borrowings for these purposes
One-third of the facility has been earmarked for strengthening of reserves, likely to be drawn down in the near term; however, the emphasis will be on prudent and gradual lifting of exchange controls and maintenance of reserves at healthy levels
The remaining one-third of the RCF would be earmarked for contingencies and as such unlikely to be drawn upon
0
10
20
30
40
50
Indicative Term Sheet
Borrower
Amount
Facility
Availability
Repayment
Covenants
Annual Fee
Interest Rate
Margin
Lenders
Drawdown
Purpose
The Republic of Iceland (“Iceland”)
NOK 50 billion
Senior Unsecured Revolving Credit Facility
7-year, Cancellable by Borrower at any time
One-third in each of years 8,9 and 10
Similar to Iceland´s EMTN Program
0.25% on Undrawn Amounts
NIBOR plus Margin on Borrowed Amounts
0.75% to 1.25%, depending on rating
The Kingdom of Norway, Norges Bank
Subject to an agreed-upon economic plan
Refinancing of foreign debt, strengthening of currency reserves and general purposes