1 1 PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment IRA’s 53 rd Annual Convention Atlanta, 6 May 2008 Literacy skills for tomorrow’s world Seeing school systems through the prism of international comparisons OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) IRA’s 53 rd annual convention, Atlanta, 6 May 2008 Andreas Schleicher Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education
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PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment IRAs 53 rd Annual Convention Atlanta, 6 May 2008 Literacy skills for tomorrows world Seeing school.
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Literacy skills for tomorrow’s world
Seeing school systems through the prism of international comparisons
OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)
IRA’s 53rd annual convention, Atlanta, 6 May 2008
Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD Directorate for Education
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8 In the dark……all students, schools and education systems look the same…
But with a little light….
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But with a little light….
…important differences become apparent….
In the dark……all students, schools and education systems look the same…
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8Today
11.. There is nowhere to hide How the global talent pool has changed Why literacy skills matter more today
2.2. Where we are – and where we can be Where countries stand in terms of quality and
equity of literacy outcomes What the best performing countries show
can be achieved
3.3. How we can get there Some policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons .
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There is nowhere to hideHow the global talent pool has changedWhy literacy skills matter more today
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A world of change in baseline qualifications
Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
%
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
13
1
1
27
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Gre
ece
Ger
man
y
Fin
land
1
Jap
an
Kor
ea
Nor
way
Irel
and
Cze
ch R
epub
lic4
Swit
zerl
and
Pola
nd
Den
mar
k
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
EU
19 a
vera
ge
Hun
gary
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
OECD
ave
rage
Ital
y
Icel
and
Swed
en
Luxe
mbou
rg
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Spa
in
New
Zea
land
Port
ugal
Tur
key
Mex
ico
1. Year of ref erence 2004.
High school completion ratesPercentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of
graduation%
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8College-level graduation rates
Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation
%
15
2
Decline of the relative position of the US from 1995 to 2005
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8Moving targets
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
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Future supply of high school graduates
0
2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
Future supply of college graduates
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The quality of skills mattersHow the demand for skills has changed
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8Why literacy skills matter
Reading is the currency in the knowledge society
Just as those with little money have difficulty meeting their basic needs, those with limited literacy are likely to find it more challenging to pursue their goals
Like most currencies, reading literacy has been subject to inflation over the years
Despite the rapid growth in the supply of qualifications, demand grows even faster
Such that the earnings and employment gap continues to grow
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8Why literacy skills matter
Approximately three quarters of adults with the lowest level of reading literacy in IALS were either not working or, if working, in relatively low-paying jobs (in the bottom 40% of wage earners)
Adults in the two lowest reading literacy levels were typically twice as likely to be unemployed as those in the highest three levels
Lower skills place individuals at higher risks of dependency and also influence civic, community and political behaviour
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8How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
OECD concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating
and evaluating written information in order to develop ones knowledge and potential,
and to participate in, and contribute to, society
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8How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
PISA concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating
and evaluating written information in order to develop ones knowledge and potential,
and to participate in, and contribute to, society
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
Reading literacy
Using, interpreting and reflecting on written material
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8How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
PISA concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating
and evaluating written information in order to develop ones knowledge and potential,
and to participate in, and contribute to, society
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
Reading literacy
Using, interpreting and reflecting on written material
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
Mathematical literacyEmphasis is on mathematical knowledge put into functional use in a multitude of different
situations in varied, reflective and insight-based ways
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8How the demand for skills has changed
Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mean t
ask
inp
ut
as
perc
enti
les
of
th
e 1
960 t
ask
dis
trib
uti
on
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
PISA concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating
and evaluating written information in order to develop ones knowledge and potential,
and to participate in, and contribute to, society
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
Reading literacy
Using, interpreting and reflecting on written material
To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate
To think imaginatively
To apply knowledge in real-life situations
To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively
Mathematical literacyEmphasis is on mathematical knowledge put into functional use in a multitude of different
situations in varied, reflective and insight-based ways
8Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
I srael
GreecePortugal I talyRussian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic SpainIcelandLatvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic Switzerland Macao- China
Germany United Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlands
Liechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonai
United StatesLithuania Norway
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
21222
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8School performance and socio-economic background
GermanyStu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within
schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic
backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic
background
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8School performance and socio-economic background
United StatesStu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools
School performance and schools’ socio-economic background
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background
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8School performance and socio-economic background
FinlandStu
dent
perf
orm
ance
AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background
Disadvantage
Schools proportional to size
Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within
schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic
backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic
background
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8Investments and outcomes
Since 2000, expenditure per primary and secondary student increased across OECD countries by 39% (in real terms) …
…while PISA literacy outcomes generally remained flat…
…but there are notable exceptions…
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8
Poland raised its reading performance by 28 PISA points, equivalent to ¾ of a school year - What
happened?
OECD (2007), Learning for tomorrow’s world: First results from PISA 2006, Table 6.1a
In 2003, performance variation among
schools had fallen from 51% to 16% of the variation of student
performance
But did this lead to genuine
improvements of school performance?
Between 2000 and 2003 showed the second-largest increase in
reading (17 points) and a further 11 point
increase since 2003
Most of that increase resulted from smaller
proportions at the bottom level (23% in 2000, and
three-quarters in vocational tracks, 17%in
2003)
Did this harm the better performers?
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Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 associated with reading proficiency at
age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother
tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group Level 1)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
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How to get thereSome policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons
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8Some myths
No relationship between size of countries and average performance
No relationship between proportion of immigrants and average performance
Few difference in students’ reported test motivation
Limited impact of national item preferences .
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High ambitions and universal
standards
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Sympathy doesn’t raise standards – aspiration does PISA suggests that students and schools
perform better in a climate characterised by high expectations and the readiness to invest effort, the enjoyment of learning, a strong disciplinary climate, and good teacher-student relations– Among these aspects, students’ perception of
teacher-student relations and classroom disciplinary climate display the strongest relationships
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8Challenge and support
Weak support
Strong support
Lowchallenge
Highchallenge
Strong performance
Systemic improvement
Poor performance
Improvements idiosyncratic
Conflict
Demoralisation
Poor performance
Stagnation
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8School principals’ perceptions of parents’ expectations
Percentage of students in schools where the principal reported that regarding high academic standards
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8The role of books and
engagement with reading Results from PISA show…
Students from advantaged backgrounds…… have a greater chance of coming to school more
engaged in reading and entering into a virtuous circle of increasing reading interest and improved reading performance
… but not all engaged students come from privileged homes…… and those from more modest backgrounds who read
regularly and feel positive about it are better readers than students with home advantages and weaker reading engagement
Schools can make a significant difference to bring students into the virtuous circle– Seeking mutual reinforcement of cognitive skills and
motivation, particularly for boys .
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Access to books at home
Low Performanc
e
HighPerformanc
e
OECD average performance of students who have 10 or fewer books
at home
Performance of students with 11 – 50 books at home
Performance of students with 51 – 100 books at home
Performance of students with 101 – 250 books at home
OECD average READING performance of students with more than 250
books (PISA 2000)
441
Greece
Russian Federation
Liechtenstein
Korea
Hong Kong- China
Finland
Netherlands
Canada
Macao- China Switzerland
New Zealand
Belgium
J apan
Australia
Iceland
Czech Republic
Sweden
France
Denmark
I reland
Germany Austria
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Norway
Spain
United StatesLatvia
PortugalI taly
440
460
480
500
520
540
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Much of the difference remains after accounting for social background, and…
“Cultural capital” appears more closely related to student performance than family wealth .
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Low Performanc
e
HighPerformanc
e
Public and school libraries
441
Greece
Russian Federation
Liechtenstein
Korea
Hong Kong- China
Finland
Netherlands
Canada
Macao- China Switzerland
New Zealand
Belgium
J apan
Australia
Iceland
Czech Republic
Sweden
France
Denmark
I reland
Germany Austria
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Norway
Spain
United StatesLatvia
PortugalI taly
440
460
480
500
520
540
61626
OECD average performance of students who never or hardly ever borrow books to read for pleasure
from a public library
A few times per year
About once a month or more (PISA 2000) .
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Reading for enjoyment
Low Performanc
e
HighPerformanc
e
441
Greece
Russian Federation
Liechtenstein
Korea
Hong Kong- China
Finland
Netherlands
Canada
Macao- China Switzerland
New Zealand
Belgium
J apan
Australia
Iceland
Czech Republic
Sweden
France
Denmark
I reland
Germany Austria
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Norway
Spain
United StatesLatvia
PortugalI taly
440
460
480
500
520
540
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OECD average performance of students who never or hardly ever read for
enjoyment
30 minutes or less each day
30 minutes to one hourOne hour or more
And moreover…
Predictive power of reading activities almost equally strong for mathematics and science
performance .
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A profile of reading engagement
Low Performanc
e
HighPerformanc
e
441
Greece
Russian Federation
Liechtenstein
Korea
Hong Kong- China
Finland
Netherlands
Canada
Macao- China Switzerland
New Zealand
Belgium
J apan
Australia
Iceland
Czech Republic
Sweden
France
Denmark
I reland
Germany Austria
Slovak Republic
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Norway
Spain
United StatesLatvia
PortugalI taly
440
460
480
500
520
540
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OECD average performance of least diversified readers (22%)(only magazines frequently read)
Moderately diversified readers (27%)(Typical materials are magazines or
newspapers)
Diversified readers in short texts (28%)(Magazines, newspapers, comics and
moderate readers of fiction and non-fiction)
Diversified readers in long texts (22%)(Magazines, newspapers, demanding texts
and books) .
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8Reading engagement
Having diverse reading material at home is strongly associated with high overall student performane and engagement in reading, which includes positive attitudes towards reading…
…but there is much schools can do to bring students into the virtuous circle of increasing reading interest and student performance
Improvement in literacy performance relies not just on improving student cognitive skills but also on increasing their engagement in reading
Engagement in reading may be an effective policy lever to mediate the impact of social background on performance
The emergence at relatively early ages of, for example, gender differences in reading performance and engagement underline the importance of an early start .
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High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability and intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
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8
PISA score in science
School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance
School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire
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Strong ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability
Devolvedresponsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational
opportunities
From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
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8Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of
learning opportunities
High science performance
Low science performanceTurkey
AustraliaJ apan
Finland
CanadaNew Zealand
Korea
Czech Republic United KingdomAustria
Germany
Netherlands
SwitzerlandI relandBelgium
PolandSwedenHungary
IcelandFrance Denmark
United States SpainLuxembourg NorwaySlovak Republic
I talyGreecePortugal
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
21222
Early selection and institutional differentiation
High degree of stratification
Low degree of stratification
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High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountabilityand intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Personalizedlearning
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational opportunities
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8Why care?
Progress Concerns about skill barriers to economic
growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation
– One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP
– Rising college-level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)
Fairness Concerns about the role of skills in creating
social inequity in economic outcomes– Both average and distribution of skill matter
to long-term growth Value for money
Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods
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8
Thank you !Thank you !
www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database