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2019 Project Implementation Report

2019Project Implementation Review (PIR)

Derisking Renewable Energy NAMA in Nigeria

Basic Data................................................................................................................................................Overall Ratings.........................................................................................................................................Development Progress.............................................................................................................................Implementation Progress..........................................................................................................................Critical Risk Management.........................................................................................................................Adjustments..............................................................................................................................................Ratings and Overall Assessments............................................................................................................Gender.....................................................................................................................................................Social and Environmental Standards........................................................................................................Communicating Impact.............................................................................................................................Partnerships.............................................................................................................................................Annex - Ratings Definitions......................................................................................................................

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2019 Project Implementation ReportA. Basic DataProject InformationUNDP PIMS ID 5243GEF ID 5345Title Derisking Renewable Energy NAMA for the Nigerian

Power Sector.Country(ies) Nigeria, NigeriaUNDP-GEF Technical Team Energy, Infrastructure, Transport and TechnologyProject Implementing Partner GovernmentJoint Agencies (not set or not applicable)Project Type Full Size

Project DescriptionThe UNDP-GEF project will support the Government of Nigeria to develop a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) for the Nigerian Power Sector. The NAMA will target solar PV primarily in order to achieve a transformation in the electricity mix such that at least 20GW of Nigeria’s electricity is generated from solar PV by 2030. The NAMA design will use a rigorous quantitative methodology based on UNDP’s Derisking (“DREI”) methodology. The project will build upon existing national development policies and initiatives that seek to put in place public derisking instruments to support the more efficient and effective participation of the private sector in the power sector. The project will develop the NAMA architecture and enabling conditions through a combination of complementary policy and financial derisking instruments, which will be validated through the implementation of a 100 MW PV project. The project will contribute to the country’s attainment of its voluntary mitigation targets in the energy sector, with expected direct emission reductions of 205,700 tonnes of CO2e during the project’s lifetime and additional indirect emission reductions of between 6.79 and 9.72 million tCO2e. Being the first of its kind, the baseline project will also pave the way for catalysing more private investments so that the NAMA will generate national benefits related to green growth, energy security and job creation at scale.

Project ContactsUNDP-GEF Regional Technical Adviser Mr. Faris Khader ([email protected])Programme Associate Ms. Adey Tesfaye ([email protected])Project Manager Mr. Isaac Ierve ([email protected])CO Focal Point Mr. Muyiwa Odele ([email protected])GEF Operational Focal Point Mr. Olutope Kusimo ([email protected])Project Implementing Partner (not set or not applicable)Other Partners (not set or not applicable)

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2019 Project Implementation ReportB. Overall RatingsOverall DO Rating Moderately UnsatisfactoryOverall IP Rating Moderately SatisfactoryOverall Risk Rating High

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2019 Project Implementation ReportC. Development ProgressDescriptionObjectiveThe objective of the project is to support the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in the development and implementation of a NAMA in the energy sector, namely a RE NAMA for the Nigerian Power Sector (NPS).Description of Indicator Baseline Level Midterm target level End of project target

levelLevel at 30 June 2018 Cumulative progress since project start

A NAMA developed for the Nigerian power sector (NPS)

No NAMA for the energy sector

(not set or not applicable)

A NAMA developed for the NPS and submitted for registration with the UNFCCC NAMA Registry

Project implementation commenced with aninception workshop held on 31 May 2017, and thefirst DREI Project Steering Committee meeting held on 2 June 2017. This was followed by the second Project Steering Committee meeting held on 25 January 2018.

A small-scale demonstration project was implemented involving the design, construction and operationalization of solar-powered agro-processing cottage industries in Ogun and Jigawa States respectively (rice in Ogun and groundnut in Jigawa).

Solar-powered water-borehole at Kano State

Technical reports produced for the solar-powered industrial park demonstrated in Nasarawa, Benue and Ebonyi States.

Digitized documentaries produced for the agro-processing solar-powered cottage industries.

No NAMA developed yet. The Independent Power Producer (IPP) for Bauchi and other IPPs in the Country that signed PPAs in 2016 have not yet reached financial close. Consequently there have been no emission reductions due to lack of grid-connected PV power. Achievement of the target would require the baseline project to reach financial close, move to site, build and operate the plants, which has not happen.In June 2019 an adaptive management exercise to re-design and re-orient the project was was approved by an extra-ordinary emergency session of the steering committee.

Quantity of renewable electricity generated by on-grid baseline projects (MWh/year)

No MRV system for monitoring GHG emission reductions in the energy sector


262 GWh/yr is generated by 100 MW PV plant in Bauchi State

A technical working group on the proposed “National Stakeholders Forum on Grid-connected Solar PV in Nigeria" in May 2018.

First strategic planning meeting with on-grid solar IPPs on the proposed “National Stakeholders Forum on Grid-connected Solar PV in Nigeria."

First strategic planning meeting with on-grid solar IPPs on proposed “National Stakeholders Forum on Grid-connected Solar PV in Nigeria" in 2017.

A technical working group on the proposed “National Stakeholders Forum on Grid-connected Solar PV in Nigeria" in May 2018.

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2019 Project Implementation ReportConsultations with Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) and the Federal Ministry of Environment (FME).

Consultations with Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) and the Federal Ministry of Environment (FME) in 2018.

As of July 2019, the 100 MW solar PV plant in Bauchi State has not yet to reached financial close and no construction work has commenced.Therefore, no GWh have been generated.

Quantity of direct GHG emissions resulting from the baseline projects and power sector NAMA (tCO2/year)

Proposed 100 MW PV plant in Bauchi State becomes operational but with deficiencies (e.g. significant policy and financial risks)


Emissions reductions:Total direct emission reductions of 452,000 tCO2 between 2017 and 2020

Bilateral familiarization meetings with Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) & CT COSMOS/GEOMETRIC Power Plc 12 September 2017.

NSCP was contacted for readiness to implement the project.

In 2017 bilateral familiarization meetings with Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) & CT COSMOS/GEOMETRIC Power Plc.

In 2018, NSCP was contacted for readiness to implement the 100 MW baseline project in Bauchi State.

As of July 2019, Nigeria Solar Capital Partners has not reached financial close and the 100 MW baseline solar power project in Bauchi State is yet to operationalize. recorded. No emissions reductions recorded yet.

The progress of the objective can be described as: Off trackOutcome 1A coherent derisking approach is established for catalysing private sector investment to implement renewable energy power sector NAMADescription of Indicator Baseline Level Midterm target level End of project target


Number of policy and financial derisking instruments designed using DREI analysis and implemented

No methodology is used to quantify risks that hinder investments in RE, and to develop policy and financial derisking instruments to promote large-scale private investments


At least 3 policy and financial derisking instruments have been assessed using DREI analysis based on work initiated in the development of the project document

A technical working group on financial de-risking instruments was formed to facilitate the collation of national data on financial de-risking.

Terms of reference for international consultants for financial de-risking instruments have been prepared. An international consultant has been contracted to assess at least three policy and financial de-risking instruments.

In 2018, a technical working group on financial de-risking instruments was formed to facilitate the collation of national data on financial de-risking.

In 2019 an international consulting firm has been selected to conduct a derisking renewable energy investment (DREI) analysis on solar PV in Nigeria and has been engaged. The activity is on-going.

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2019 Project Implementation ReportNumber of national guidelines Social and

environmental safeguards for RE projects do not meet international standards


3 TAPs developed by the end of Year 3

Terms of reference for the development of three Technology Action Plans have been prepared.

Call for Expressions of Interest/ Financial and Technical proposals developed.

An International Consultant contracted for the development of three Technology Action Plans.

A technical working group to facilitate the collation of data for the development of three Technology Action Plans (TAPs) formed.

In 2018, the project approved and sourced international and national specialized expertise to provide technical assistance and support to develop three comprehensive sectoral NAMA technology action plans (TAPs) for solar, wind and biomass.

In 2018, a technical working group to facilitate the collation of data for the development of three Technology Action Plans (TAPs) was constituted.

In April 2019, the draft report was validated by National stakeholders. The final report was issued in May 2019. The three (3) TAPs have been developed.

Standardised baseline for calculating GHG emission reduction for on-grid RE

No baseline exists to calculate emission reductions for grid connected RENo technology action plans for promoting RE projects


An MRV mechanism is developed for the power sector, including a standardized baseline for national grid developed in Year 1 and updated on a yearly basis

A technical working group for the development of a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) mechanism was developed.

Terms of reference for the development of a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) mechanism developed.

International consultants for the development of the MRV mechanism identified.

Call for Expressions of Interest/ Financial and Technical proposals on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system developed.

In 2018, a technical working group for the development of a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) mechanism was constituted.

In 2018, the project contracted Deloitte Tohmatsu Financial Advisory LLC, Japan for the development of an MRV mechanism for the Nigerian power sector and for the calculation of the grid emission factor for the Nigerian power sector.

A stakeholder validation workshop was held on 15-16 November 2018.

In April 2019, stakeholder validation of the developed MRV and grid emission factor for the Nigerian power sector was conducted.It is expected to organize a stakeholder conference to transfer ownership of the MRV and the grid emission factor to Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Designated National Authority (DNA) of Nigeria in order to update the grid emission factor for 2019.An MRV mechanism including a standardized baseline for the national grid

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2019 Project Implementation Reporthas been developed.

The progress of the objective can be described as: On trackOutcome 2Public instruments are developed and implemented for derisking the national policy environmentDescription of Indicator Baseline Level Midterm target level End of project target


Number of public instruments developed and implemented (e.g. trainings delivered to IPPs, RE resources assessments, environmental and social safeguard guidelines, RE IPPs benefiting from trainings)

Investments in on-grid utility scale RE projects

- Limited availability of local capital because of the risk perception of the financial sector- No GIS-based tool to provide the practicable RE potential is available- Limited capacity in public and private institutions to plan, implement, monitor and evaluate RE projects- Lack of internationally-benchmarked social and environmental safeguards


- A study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment is carried out- A GIS based tool is developed to identify practicable RE (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria- A set of social and environmental safeguard guidelines is developed for all utility-scale RE by the end of Year 1 based on international standards- The Lagos Energy Academy are capacitated to deliver RE trainings to IPPs, undergraduate students, and public institutions on a cost-recovery basis- A lessons learned report is developed to captured best practices for dissemination (Year 5)

A technical working group for the development of a study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment formed.

Terms of reference for consultancy on the development of a study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment developed.

International Consultants for the development of a study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment identified.

Call for Expression of Interest/ Financial and Technical proposals for a study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment developed.

A Technical Working Group for the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based tool to identify practicable Renewable Energy (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria formed.

Terms of reference for consultancy for the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based tool to identify practicable RE (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria developed.

International Consultants for the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based tool is to identify

In 2018, a technical working group for the development of a study on domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment was formed.

In 2018, the project engaged an international consulting firm Climate Mundial and National Consultant for technical assistance and support to carry out a study on the Nigerian domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost local capital for green investment.

In November 2018, the result of the study was validated by stakeholders. The final version of the report was issued on 23rd November 2018.

In 2018, a Technical Working Group for the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based tool to identify practicable Renewable Energy (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria was formed.

In 2018, an international consulting firm GESTO Energy Consulting was engaged to provide technical assistance.Data collection is on-going. There is a delay in the data collection process due to the following reasons: there are some data collection security concerns regarding some of the data requested and approval from relevant authorities will be required in the coming months; some of the requested data require payment. 20 % of the technical

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2019 Project Implementation Reportpracticable RE (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria identified.

Call for Expressions of Interest/ Financial and Technical proposals for the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based tool is to identify practicable Renewable Energy (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria developed.

Bilateral Interactive/Familiarization Meetings held with Lagos Energy Academy (LEA), Lagos. Training experts/Institutions to train Lagos Energy Academy staff identified.

progress has been achieved.

For the activity "A set of social and environmental safeguard guidelines is developed for all utility-scale RE based on international standards (e.g. World Bank), the project first supported the organization of a 3-day forum on 25-27 September 2018. 70 participants were sensitized and feedback from stakeholders on current gaps was gathered.In 2019, the project is supporting the Federal Ministry of Environment, Environmental Assessment Department (EAD) to formulate an appropriate technical assistance terms of reference (ToR) so as to develop specific Environmental and Social Safeguard Guidelines for utility-scale RE projects in Nigeria.

In 2018, bilateral interactive/familiarization meetings held with Lagos Energy Academy (LEA), Lagos.Training experts/Institutions to train Lagos Energy Academy staff were identified.In 2018, an international consulting firm Renac, Germany was engaged to offer technical assistance.

In 2019, the project provided financial support in organizing a 12- day training/capacity building programme on "Train-the-Trainers on Design, Installation, Operation & Maintenance of Large Scale Grid connected Solar PV in Nigeria at Lagos Energy Academy from March 25 to April 6, 2019. A total of 16 participants drawn from Lagos Energy Academy, National Power Training Institute (NAPTIN), Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) and Private Power Producers comprising 15 men and 1 woman were trained and certified by Renac. The project also supported the sizing,

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2019 Project Implementation Reportselection and acquisition of two sets of solar PV components/Balance of System (BoS) for the hands-on training at Lagos Energy Academy (LEA) March 25 to April 6, 2019.

Regarding the lessons learned report to capture best practices for dissemination in Year 5, no progress has been made yet since the project is in the 3rd year of implementation.However, a website and a project WhatsApp group has been developed to provide a knowledge management platform.

Policy Briefs and study reports have been produced for MRV, grid emission factor and TAPs, Train-the-Trainer and Nigerian financial sector reforms and Compendium of renewable energy incentives in Nigeria.

The progress of the objective can be described as: On trackOutcome 3The NPS RE NAMA is operationalised by demonstrating a proof-of-concept grid connected solar PV plant with quantified GHG emission reductionsDescription of Indicator Baseline Level Midterm target level End of project target


Emission reductions from grid-connected PV power

Baseline project implemented with identified deficiencies


113,150 tCO2e/year from 100 MW PV plant in Bauchi State (452,000 tCO2e between 2017 and 2020)

NSCP was contacted to update us on their readiness to implement the 100 MW pilot project.

No progress made. Recognizing that all the 14 IPPs (including Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) for on-grid RE based projects registered by Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) could not reach financial close after over 7 years and there is no hope of doing so. The Project Management Unit (PMU) collaborated with Steering Committee members to organize a 2-day on-grid investors forum in 2018. It was learnt that the Federal Government is not ready to provide a Partial Risk Gaurantee (PRG) to DFIs/World Bank to enable them to loan money to IPPs.No progress has been made under this activity.Achievement of the target would require the baseline project to reach financial close.

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Number of households benefiting from electricity generated by PV plants (households/year)

No MRV system for NPS NAMA


295,000 households benefiting from PV by the end of the project

The 100 MW solar PV power plant has not been commissioned yet.

No households are benefiting from grid-connected solar PV at this stage.

The progress of the objective can be described as: Off track

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2019 Project Implementation ReportD. Implementation Progress

Cumulative GL delivery against total approved amount (in prodoc): 28.89%Cumulative GL delivery against expected delivery as of this year: 31.4%Cumulative disbursement as of 30 June (note: amount to be updated in late August): 1,271,320

Key Financing AmountsPPG Amount 130,000GEF Grant Amount 4,400,000Co-financing 213,550,000

Key Project DatesPIF Approval Date Nov 7, 2013CEO Endorsement Date Jun 3, 2016Project Document Signature Date (project start date): Jun 28, 2016Date of Inception Workshop May 31, 2017Expected Date of Mid-term Review Jun 28, 2019Actual Date of Mid-term Review (not set or not applicable)Expected Date of Terminal Evaluation Jun 28, 2021Original Planned Closing Date Jun 28, 2021Revised Planned Closing Date (not set or not applicable)

Dates of Project Steering Committee/Board Meetings during reporting period (30 June 2018 to 1 July 2019)2018-12-062019-06-27

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2019 Project Implementation ReportE. Critical Risk Management

Current Types of Critical Risks Critical risk management measures undertaken this reporting periodFinancial Risks associated with increasing private sector investment into the Nigerian power sector. Due to the shortcomings in the privatization

of the power generation and distribution services, the Federal Government of Nigeria is reluctant to enter into put-call option agreements (PCOAs), which are essentially sovereign guarantees for the private sector investments.

Mitigation measures:- Developed Nigerian Financial Sector Reform to Unlock Low-Cost Local Capital for Green Investment, Identify Financial De-risking Instruments and Propose and Implement means of Capitalization.- Developed Midterm Review (MTR) report.- Possible options for reorienting the project strategy approved by the Steering Committee.- On-going development of public instrument package to mitigate political and financial risks based on DREI Methodology.

Political Risk: High political instability; poor governance; poor rule of law and institutions, government policy (currency restrictions, corporate taxes).

Mitigation measure:- On-going development of public instrument package to mitigate political and financial risks based on DREI Methodology.

Security Risk related to terrorism, and/or civil disturbance.

Mitigation measures:- Security agents, community leaders and local vigilantes will be involved.- The indigenous people will be involved to carry out activities on the proposed sites and a security committee will be formed.

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F. Adjustments

Comments on delays in key project milestonesProject Manager: please provide comments on delays this reporting period in achieving any of the following key project milestones: inception workshop, mid-term review, terminal evaluation and/or project closure. If there are no delays please indicate not applicable.Implementation was timely without any significant delays apart from those associated with the national elections in Nigeria but this was addressed.Country Office: please provide comments on delays this reporting period in achieving any of the following key project milestones: inception workshop, mid-term review, terminal evaluation and/or project closure. If there are no delays please indicate not applicable.None was recorded given that the MTR held 4 months of the proposed date to give the opportunity for extensive consultations with all of the critical stakeholders, stakeholders, policy makers and investors. This proactive action contributed to the identification of three significant possibilities for redesigning the approach to Component 3 of the project.UNDP-GEF Technical Adviser: please provide comments on delays this reporting period in achieving any of the following key project milestones: inception workshop, mid-term review, terminal evaluation and/or project closure. If there are no delays please indicate not applicable.As the investment component is currently stalled, the Country Office advanced the commissioning of the mid-term review. The MTR includes a number of important recommendations, most notably to reorient the project strategy toward one of the following options:Option 1: remain focused on utility-scale solar PV and update the project strategy according to current circumstances; Option 2: reorient the project strategy towards rooftop PV (on-grid); andOption 3: reorient the project strategy towards embedded generation and interconnected mini-grids.An adaptive management consultant has been recruited to meet with key stakeholders, assess the three options, and agree on the best course of action to get the investment component back on track.

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2019 Project Implementation ReportG. Ratings and Overall AssessmentsRole 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingProject Manager/Coordinator Moderately Unsatisfactory - IP Rating provided by UNDP-GEF Technical Adviser

and UNDP Country Office only -Overall Assessment

The project was designed to support the Government of Nigeria to develop a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) for the Nigerian power sector primarily to achieve a transformation in the electricity mix such that at least 20 GW of the Country’s electricity is generated from solar PV by 2030. The NAMA architecture and enabling conditions is envisaged to be developed through a combination of complementary policy and financial de-risking instruments, which will be validated through the implementation of a 100 MW PV baseline project by Nigerian Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) in Bauchi State. The project is the first of its kind apply the UNDP de-risking methodology in Nigeria and is expected to contribute to the country’s attainment of its voluntary mitigation targets in the energy sector, with expected direct emission reductions of 452,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e) during the project’s lifetime and additional indirect emission reductions of between 6.61 and 6.79 million tCO2e.Following the recent recession faced by the economy in 2016, the government of Nigeria has remained very cautious in providing additional layer of security for investment in the power sector. The government is weary of the growing size of its contingent liabilities and its take or pay obligations, as such new projects are not being offered the idea Partial Risk Guarantees (PRG) and Put Call Option Agreement (PCOA) required to securitize the investment. Consequently, the risk for further delays remains high as Investments in utility-scale on-grid RE, particularly solar PV have been stalled, as independent power purchasers (IPPs) including NSCP have not yet reached financial close following power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed in 2016. The activities under Component 3, which make up approximately 50% of the allocated GEF project grant, have consequently not started.As a result of this, a midterm review of the project recommended three possible options for reorienting the project strategy, namely:• Option 1: Remain focused on utility-scale solar PV and update strategy according to current circumstances• Option 2: Reorient the project strategy towards on-grid rooftop solar PV• Option 3: Reorient the project strategy towards embedded generation and interconnected mini-gridsThe project team has hired “Solar PV Expert” to assess which of these options would be the best way forward in close consultations with the project stakeholders and subsequently restructuring the project document, redesigning the outputs and activities of the project.Due to the foregoing, the overall objective and the investment component (outcome 3) are off-track. Consequently, a rating of the project development objective progress for this reporting period is Moderately Unsatisfactory. No emissions reductions recorded yet.The project however made progress under component 1 and 2 as follows: (i) development of renewable energy (RE) technology action plans (TAPs), (ii )development of an MRV mechanism and grid emission factor for the power sector, (iii) Nigerian domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost capital for green investment, (iv) 16 Nigerian professionals from LEA, NAPTIN, ECN and private IPPs have been trained and certified in the project cycle of planning, financing, constructing and operating utility-scale solar PV installations. (v) the project procured technical assistance for the development of a GIS tool for identifying practicable RE sites in the country and the activity is on-going (vi) Collaboration with the Environmental Assessment Department, Federal Ministry of Environment to develop ESIA guidelines on large scale solar PV (vii) Production of Study Reports on TAP ,MRV, GIS and the Financial Sector Reform. The project team engaged a Consulting firm to carry out DREI analysis of solar PV technology in Nigeria. The activities under Component 3, which make up approximately 50% of the allocated GEF project grant, have consequently not started. A mid-term review of the project has also been completed and potential next steps of re-designing the project identified. Therefore, overall, implementation progress can be considered Moderately Satisfactory.

Role 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingUNDP Country Office Programme Officer Moderately Satisfactory SatisfactoryOverall Assessment The pace of implementation for both Outcomes 1 and 2 have produced tangible results while Outcome 3

continues to pose major challenge to the accomplishment of full implementation objectives as already identified in the recently conducted MTR. Given the budgetary allocation to this work and the key expected deliverable the project had to be rated as moderately satisfactory to reflect the reality and gravity of the inability of Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) to reach financial closure in 2018 as projected or anytime soon. This understanding led to the convening of an emergency project steering committee to seek new possible ways of addressing the challenge while keeping in sight the broader overall project goal and to also deliberate on the findings of the MTR report that clearly rated outcome 3 poorly. This the moderately unsatisfactory rating captures this critical challenge. On overall delivery of 2019 annual work plan resources the project has performed well while cumulatively it has stalled. Steps have now been initiated in accordance with the guidelines of the Project

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2019 Project Implementation ReportSteering Committee to speedily resolve the challenge.

Role 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingGEF Operational Focal point Moderately Satisfactory - IP Rating provided by UNDP-GEF Technical Adviser

and UNDP Country Office only -Overall Assessment The project still remains a major priority of the Government of Nigeria despite the areas where implementation

has not been possible. This has affected the project rating for this year as a major pillar of the project could not be unlocked making it difficult to achieve projected delivery for 2019. Working closely with the Project Management Unit and the UNDP CO, the PSC has resolved to address the issue with a list of recommendations that would take the project forward.

Role 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingProject Implementing Partner (not set or not applicable) - IP Rating provided by UNDP-GEF Technical Adviser

and UNDP Country Office only -Overall Assessment (not set or not applicable)Role 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingOther Partners (not set or not applicable) - IP Rating provided by UNDP-GEF Technical Adviser

and UNDP Country Office only -Overall Assessment (not set or not applicable)Role 2019 Development Objective Progress Rating 2019 Implementation Progress RatingUNDP-GEF Technical Adviser Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately SatisfactoryOverall Assessment This project was initially expected to provide support to the first commercial on-grid renewable energy project in

Nigeria. The main baseline initiative that the GEF project was originally intended to enhance is a 100 MW solar PV power plant in Bauchi State, supported by Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP). It is also worth noting that this project is one of the first to apply UNDP’s innovative derisking renewable energy investment (DREI) methodology in Africa. Since GEF approval, there have been important developments that have led to all on-grid RE investments in Nigeria being stalled. The World Bank has advised the government that a “deep reset” is required in the power sector. While 14 independent power producers (IPPs) – including NSCP – signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with the Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) in 2016, up until now, none of the project developers has reached financial close. Due primarily to the lack of solvency in the power sector, largely as a result of shortcomings in the privatization of the power generation and distribution services, the Federal Government of Nigeria is reluctant to enter into put-call option agreements (PCOAs), which are essentially sovereign guarantees for the private sector investments.

A Green Climate Fund (GCF) proposal – Nigeria solar IPP support program – was approved in February 2019 and is expected to provide much needed leverage to enable the IPPs to reach financial close. The GCF proposal includes $467 million of concessional finance and a debt replacement facility, aiming to deliver 400 MW to the national grid through 3-5 solar PV utility-scale investments. However, the results of the GCF program will only likely occur several years from now, which would not be of use to this GEF project, which is scheduled to close in June 2021. Therefore, the mid-term review has recommended to reassess the project strategy and redesign the project components accordingly. The MTR puts forward three possible options for reorienting the project strategy, namely:• Option 1: Remain focused on utility-scale solar PV and update strategy according to current circumstances• Option 2: Reorient the project strategy towards on-grid rooftop solar PV• Option 3: Reorient the project strategy towards embedded generation and interconnected mini-gridsThe project team has hired an adaptive management strategy consultant with a strong investment background to assess the three options, agree on the way forward with key partners, and then take the lead in restructuring the project document and redesigning the outputs and activities.

In light of the circumstances outlined above, which could not have been foreseen when the project was developed in 2014-15, both the overall objective and the investment component (outcome 3) are off-track. Consequently, a rating of Moderately Unsatisfactory has been assigned for development objective progress. At the objective level, there have not been any emission reductions to date since all investments in grid-connected solar PV are stalled. Having said that, the project team should be commended for flagging this issue with the UNDP Regional Centre early on, advancing the mid-term review, and facilitating a policy dialogue with on-grid solar IPPs to identify potential solutions. Thanks to the project team’s proactive actions, there is still time to reorient the investment component to achieve emission reductions before project completion.

Notwithstanding the serious challenges in the power sector, the project has made very good progress under Outcome 1 on a coherent derisking approach for catalyzing private sector investment in renewable energy. The following key studies have been completed, which will make an important contribution to the renewable energy

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2019 Project Implementation Reportsector in Nigeria: renewable energy technology action plans for solar, wind and biomass, and an MRV mechanism and grid emission factor for the power sector. As discussed previously, the project team is advised to hold off on conducting the DREI analysis until the project design has been adjusted.

Similarly, good progress has been made under Outcome 2, which relates to the development of public instruments for derisking the national policy environment. Notably, the project has overseen the preparation of a study on Nigerian domestic financial sector reform to unlock low-cost capital for green investment. If the recommendations of the study are implemented, it could have an important impact on mobilizing private sector investment for the sustainable energy transition. The project has also commissioned the development of a GIS-based tool to identify practicable renewable energy (PV, wind and biomass) sites in Nigeria. Assuming that this analysis is completed, it will help lay the foundation for subsequent investment in renewable energy projects. In the remaining implementation period, the project should ensure that the ownership of these important studies resides fully with the government, which will enhance the sustainability of the project interventions.

As alluded to earlier, Outcome 3 is completely stuck at the moment. As the GEF funding allocated to this component accounts for more than 50% of the total GEF grant and as this component is expected to generate direct GHG benefits, a key success indicator of the project, this is a critical issue that needs to be resolved. As the mid-term review notes, since 2013, Nigeria Solar Capital Partners, one of the key project partners, has spent $5 million on development related activities, such as the ESIA and resettlement action plan but unfortunately their 100 MW solar PV power plant is unlikely to go ahead, at least in the near term. An adaptive management mission to Nigeria is planned for September 2019, following which the project strategy will be reoriented toward an area that has a greater chance of success. It is worth reiterating that the project team has demonstrated effective adaptive management and effective critical risk management.

Due to the reasons highlighted earlier, cumulative delivery is off-track. However, the project team has made steady progress in implementing TA-related activities in its annual work plan. Notably, annual delivery stands at a respectable 43%. By and large, the project has been managed efficiently and effectively. External factors have derailed the investment component. Overall, implementation progress can be considered Moderately Satisfactory. It is important to note that annual work plan targets have not been entered in the UNDP Corporate Planning System for either 2018 or 2019. It is strongly recommended that the Country Office make greater use of the corporate system to facilitate monitoring.

In the upcoming reporting period, the Country Office and project team are advised to follow through on the mid-term review recommendations, starting with the redesign of the investment component. Other key MTR recommendations that are worth reproducing here include:• Strengthen the involvement of the Federal Ministry of Power and Federal Ministry of Environment through a joint implementation approach.• Identify institutional roles and responsibilities for the project outputs and facilitate ownership of project results, through institutionalizing the project results.• Recruit a part-time Chief Technical Advisor to help ensure coherency of project results.• Streamline and clarify the role and responsibilities of the Project Board.• Develop and implement a communication and knowledge management strategy and action plan.• Improve coordination with other projects and programs.• Update the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan for the project.• Follow up on the progress of implementing the recommendations for achieving financial sector reform.Next year’s PIR should report on the progress made in implementing the mid-term review recommendations.

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H. Gender

Progress in Advancing Gender Equality and Women's EmpowermentThis information is used in the UNDP-GEF Annual Performance Report, UNDP-GEF Annual Gender Report, reporting to the UNDP Gender Steering and Implementation Committee and for other internal and external communications and learning. The Project Manager and/or Project Gender Officer should complete this section with support from the UNDP Country Office.

Gender Analysis and Action Plan: not availablePlease review the project's Gender Analysis and Action Plan. If the document is not attached or an updated Gender Analysis and/or Gender Action Plan is available please upload the document below or send to the Regional Programme Associate to upload in PIMS+. Please note that all projects approved since 1 July 2014 are required to carry out a gender analysis and all projects approved since 1 July 2018 are required to have a gender analysis and action plan.(not set or not applicable)Please indicate in which results areas the project is contributing to gender equality (you may select more than one results area, or select not applicable):Contributing to closing gender gaps in access to and control over resources: NoImproving the participation and decision-making of women in natural resource governance: NoTargeting socio-economic benefits and services for women: YesNot applicable: NoAtlas Gender Marker RatingGEN2: gender equality as significant objectivePlease describe any experiences or linkages (direct or indirect) between project activities and gender-based violence (GBV). This information is for UNDP use only and will not be shared with GEF Secretariat.

N/APlease specify results achieved this reporting period that focus on increasing gender equality and the empowerment of women.

Please explain how the results reported addressed the different needs of men or women, changed norms, values, and power structures, and/or contributed to transforming or challenging gender inequalities and discrimination.The gender sensitive analysis is yet to be carried out. However, the project takes into consideration the needs of women and Men while planning the 2019 annual work plan activities. Both Men and Women successfully participated in the Training/capacity building programme on "Train-the-Trainers on Design, Installation, Operation & Maintenance of Large Scale Grid connected Solar PV in Nigeria at Lagos Energy Academy. There is a general belief that women are not sufficiently skilled or not interested in technical issues like renewable energy programmes, but through this training, many have come to realize that that women play a key role in renewable energy resource use, application and management. Procurement of a gender specialist was announced on the UNDP website but attempts to recruit a qualified gender specialist have been unsuccessful.Please describe how work to advance gender equality and women's empowerment enhanced the project's environmental and/or resilience outcomes.A major piece of analytical work planned for last year and into 2019 has not been carried out as a result of procurement challenges arising from the difficulty in sourcing qualified consultants to undertake the assignment. The expression of interest for the work has been recirculated with hopes of receiving qualified responses to undertake this very important task. Lack of electricity in rural areas affects women disproportionally, in terms of the time required for gathering fuelwood and the negative health impacts on wood-fired cookers. By promoting energy access, the project will help to reduce some of these adverse impacts, promote women's empowerment and in turn contribute to greater household resilience.

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I. Social and Environmental Standards

Social and Environmental Standards (Safeguards)The Project Manager and/or the project’s Safeguards Officer should complete this section of the PIR with support from the UNDP Country Office. The UNDP-GEF RTA should review to ensure it is complete and accurate.

1) Have any new social and/or environmental risks been identified during project implementation?NoIf any new social and/or environmental risks have been identified during project implementation please describe the new risk(s) and the response to it.N/A2) Have any existing social and/or environmental risks been escalated during the reporting period? For example, when a low risk increased to moderate, or a moderate risk increased to high.YesIf any existing social and/or environmental risks have been escalated during implementation please describe the change(s) and the response to it.The SESP concluded that the project is rated as high risk, based on two aspects: (1) security, regarding with the political instability in the north of Nigeria; and (2) resettlement of project affected persons. Four risks, each associated with the construction phase of the solar PV plant, were characterized as moderate: risks to habitats; risks to community health & safety; risks to cultural heritage; and risks of pollution. As recorded in the SESP, 30 households were identified as requiring resettlement. While the developer had prepared a resettlement action plan, the magnitude of the risk is higher than initially expected. The revised resettlement action plan, dated June 2017, indicates more extensiveresettlement requirements, with 297 households identified. This is in relation to the planned 100 MW solar PV power plant in Bauchi State, supported by Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP). It should be noted that due to the prevailing barriers in the sector, the project will no longer provide incremental support for the planned NSCP baseline project. Instead, the investment component will likely be reoriented toward interconnected mini-grids. The potential risk of resettlement will still need to be monitored closely.SESP: Annex 7.3. Social and Environmental Screening.docxEnvironmental and Social Management Plan/Framework: not availableFor reference, please find below the project's safeguards screening (Social and Environmental Screening Procedure (SESP) or the old ESSP tool); management plans (if any); and its SESP categorization above. Please note that the SESP categorization might have been corrected during a centralized review.(not set or not applicable)3) Have any required social and environmental assessments and/or management plans been prepared in the reporting period? For example, an updated Stakeholder Engagement Plan, Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) or Indigenous Peoples Plan.NoIf yes, please upload the document(s) above. If no, please explain when the required documents will be prepared.N/A4) Has the project received complaints related to social and/or environmental impacts (actual or potential )?NoIf yes, please describe the complaint(s) or grievance(s) in detail including the status, significance, who was involved and what action was taken.N/A

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J. Communicating ImpactTell us the story of the project focusing on how the project has helped to improve people’s lives.(This text will be used for UNDP corporate communications, the UNDP-GEF website, and/or other internal and external knowledge and learning efforts.)The project outcomes are mainly related to supporting the the Federal Government of Nigeria in developing and implementing on-grid solar PV for sustainable and reliable power supply and to reduce GHG emissions and also contribute to the ambitious RE and NDC targets.

The project will support the creation of jobs, including in the remote parts of the country this will positively affect the lives of the people in these parts. Besides, due to the fact that interconnected mini-grids will likely be established in rural communities which are affected by high levels of unemployment especially women, the project will contribute to local economic development and will indirectly contribute to the employment of women living in these communities.

The project is playing a key role in supporting and accelerating the implementation of RE projects through on-going activities. The use of renewable energy will have a direct impact in improving the lives of people since their energy bills will be lower.

At the household level, the savings on energy bills can be reinvested in other important ares such as health, security, education and agriculture. This will have a positive impact on the economy and will also improve the development plan of the country.

The project will also contribute to the country’s attainment of its voluntary mitigation targets in the energy sector, with expected direct emission reductions and contribute to meeting the renewable targets aimed at 10% installed capacity of various sources of renewable energy by 2030.

The baseline project will also pave the way for catalysing more private investments so that the NAMA will generate national benefits related to green growth and energy security.

Knowledge Management, Project Links and Social MediaPlease describe knowledge activities / products as outlined in knowledge management approved at CEO Endorsement /Approval.

Please also include: project's website, project page on the UNDP website, blogs, photos stories (e.g. Exposure), Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, YouTube, as well as hyperlinks to any media coverage of the project, for example, stories written by an outside source. Please upload any supporting files, including photos, videos, stories, and other documents using the 'file lirbary' button in the top right of the PIR.Project website:http://www.ng.undp.org/content/nigeria/en/home/projects/de-risking-renewable-energy-nationally-appropriate-mitigation-ac.html

Email address:[email protected].

FGN, UNDP plan $218 million renewable energy project: https://guardian.ng/property/fg-undp-plan-218-million-renewable-energy-project/

GEF, UNDP, government, investors commence $239m energy efficiency scheme:http://www.environewsnigeria.com/gef-undp-government-investors-commence-239m-energy-efficiency-scheme/

UNDP, GEF build renewable energy expertise under derisking initiative https://www.environewsnigeria.com/undp-gef-build-renewable-energy-expertise-under-derisking-initiative/

UNDP trains Nigerians in on-grid solar systems | The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World NewsMonday April 15, 2019 3.38 https://guardian.ng/property/undp-trains-nigerians-in-on-grid-solar-systems/

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GEF, UNDP, Colloborate with ECN, others to build capacity in Nigerians' renewable energy https://www.pressreader.com/nigeria/thisday/20190409/282024738638876

Surveyor-General to support UNDP-GEF to identify renewable energy sites: https://www.environewsnigeria.com/surveyor-general-to-support-undp-gef-identify-renewable-energy-sites/

Stakeholders Validate Draft Report Designed to Remove Risks in Expanding Renewable Energy Investment in Nigeria: https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/04/30/stakeholders-validate-draft-report-designed-to-remove-risks-in-expanding-renewable-energy-investment-in-nigeria/

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K. Partnerships

Partnerships & Stakeholder EngagmentPlease select yes or no whether the project is working with any of the following partners. Please also provide an update on stakeholder engagement. This information is used by the GEF and UNDP for reporting and is therefore very important! All sections must be completed by the Project Manager and reviewed by the CO and RTA.

Does the project work with any Civil Society Organisations and/or NGOs?YesDoes the project work with any Indigenous Peoples?NoDoes the project work with the Private Sector?YesDoes the project work with the GEF Small Grants Programme?NoDoes the project work with UN Volunteers?NoDid the project support South-South Cooperation and/or Triangular Cooperation efforts in the reporting year?NoCEO Endorsement Request: PIMS 5243 - CCM - Nigeria - Derisking Renewable Energy NAMA for the Nigerian Power Sector - CEO ER v5 - final.docxProvide an update on progress, challenges and outcomes related to stakeholder engagement based on the description of the Stakeholder Engagement Plan as documented at CEO endorsement/approval (see document below). If any surveys have been conducted please upload all survey documents to the PIR file library.Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) The ECN is housing the Project Management Unit (PMU). ECN is also chair of the project board.1. Federal Ministry of Power (FMP): The FMP is chair of the TWG for Component 2 of the project and a member of the PB.2. Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC): NERC is an independent regulatory agency mandated to regulate and monitor the Nigerian power sector. Of direct relevance to NERC is the DREI analysis that can be used to guide the revision of MYTO II (equivalent of feed-in-tariffs in Nigeria) using a risk-adjusted approach. The DREI analyses can complement the technical assistance that the NERC is getting from GIZ under the NESP. This provides an opportunity for the UNDP-GEF project to collaborate with the GIZ and NERC. NERC will be invited to join the TWG for Component 2 and the Project Board (PB).3. Federal Ministry of Environment (FME): The GEF Operational Focal Point is member of the PB. The project is collaborating with the Federal Ministry of Environment, to formulate an appropriate technical assistance terms of reference (ToR) so as to develop specific Environmental and Social Safeguard Guidelines for utility-scale RE projects in Nigeria.4. Private sector – Nigeria Solar Capital Partners (NSCP) Since NSCP is also the project owner of the 100 MW baseline solar PV project in Bauchi State, is a member of the Project Board.In 2018, NSCP was contacted for readiness to implement the 100 MW baseline project in Bauchi State. However as at of June 2019, Nigeria Solar Capital Partners has not reached financial close and the 100 MW baseline solar power project in Bauchi State is yet to operationalize.Federal Ministry of Finance (FMF) The FMF is the chair of the TWG for finance and a member of the PB. The FMF was consulted during the project implementation to identify the appropriate financial sector reforms that may be required in Nigeria in order to unlock low-cost public finance.5. GIZ- Since GIZ is working in close collaboration with several national partners, including FMP, NERC and local training institutions, the project collaborated with GIZ and invited them to participate in workshops and working group meetings.6. Lagos Energy Academy (LEA): LEA is also a member of the project board and a member of the TWG for component 2. The project provided financial support in organizing a 12- day training/capacity building programme on "Train-the-Trainers on Design, Installation, and Operation & Maintenance of Large Scale

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Grid connected Solar PV in Nigeria at Lagos Energy Academy. A total of 16 participants drawn from Lagos Energy Academy, National Power Training Institute (NAPTIN), Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) and Private Power Producers were trained and certified by Renac. The project also supported the sizing, selection and acquisition of two sets of solar PV components/Balance of System (BoS) for the hands-on training at Lagos Energy Academy (LEA) March 25 to April 6, 2019.

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L. Annex - Ratings DefinitionsDevelopment Objective Progress Ratings Definitions(HS) Highly Satisfactory: Project is on track to exceed its end-of-project targets, and is likely to achieve transformational change by project closure. The project can be presented as 'outstanding practice'.(S) Satisfactory: Project is on track to fully achieve its end-of-project targets by project closure. The project can be presented as 'good practice'.(MS) Moderately Satisfactory: Project is on track to achieve its end-of-project targets by project closure with minor shortcomings only.(MU) Moderately Unsatisfactory: Project is off track and is expected to partially achieve its end-of-project targets by project closure with significant shortcomings. Project results might be fully achieved by project closure if adaptive management is undertaken immediately.(U) Unsatisfactory: Project is off track and is not expected to achieve its end-of-project targets by project closure. Project results might be partially achieved by project closure if major adaptive management is undertaken immediately.(HU) Highly Unsatisfactory: Project is off track and is not expected to achieve its end-of-project targets without major restructuring.

Implementation Progress Ratings Definitions(HS) Highly Satisfactory: Implementation is exceeding expectations. Cumulative financial delivery, timing of key implementation milestones, and risk management are fully on track. The project is managed extremely efficiently and effectively. The implementation of the project can be presented as 'outstanding practice'.(S) Satisfactory: Implementation is proceeding as planned. Cumulative financial delivery, timing of key implementation milestones, and risk management are on track. The project is managed efficiently and effectively. The implementation of the project can be presented as 'good practice'.(MS) Moderately Satisfactory: Implementation is proceeding as planned with minor deviations. Cumulative financial delivery and management of risks are mostly on track, with minor delays. The project is managed well.(MU) Moderately Unsatisfactory: Implementation is not proceeding as planned and faces significant implementation issues. Implementation progress could be improved if adaptive management is undertaken immediately. Cumulative financial delivery, timing of key implementation milestones, and/or management of critical risks are significantly off track. The project is not fully or well supported. (U) Unsatisfactory: Implementation is not proceeding as planned and faces major implementation issues and restructuring may be necessary. Cumulative financial delivery, timing of key implementation milestones, and/or management of critical risks are off track with major issues and/or concerns. The project is not fully or well supported. (HU) Highly Unsatisfactory: Implementation is seriously under performing and major restructuring is required. Cumulative financial delivery, timing of key implementation milestones (e.g. start of activities), and management of critical risks are severely off track with severe issues and/or concerns. The project is not effectively or efficiently supported.

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PIMS + - Basic Data · Web viewCEO Endorsement Request: PIMS 5243 - CCM - Nigeria - Derisking Renewable Energy NAMA for the Nigerian Power Sector - CEO ER v5 - final.docx Provide

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