PICKERINGTON LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT – FAIRFIELD COUNTY ASSUMPTIONS FOR FIVE-YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST PROJECTED FISCAL YEARS ENDING JUNE 30, 2019 THROUGH JUNE 30, 2023 INTRODUCTION TO THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST AND UNDERSTANDING THE PURPOSE OF THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST The Ohio Department of Education provides the following guidance on how to read a Five Year Forecast: http://education.ohio.gov/Topics/Finance-and-Funding/Five-Year-Forecast/How-to-Read-a-Five-Year-Forecast A forecast is somewhat like a painting of the future based upon a snapshot of today. That snapshot, however, will be adjusted and the further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely it is that the projections will deviate from actual experience. A variety of events will ultimately impact the latter years of the forecast, such as state budgets (adopted every two years), tax levies (new/renewal/ replacement), salary increases, or businesses moving in or out of the district. The five-year forecast is viewed as a key management tool and must be updated periodically. In Ohio, most school districts understand how they will manage their finances in the current year. The five-year forecast encourages district management teams to examine future years’ projections and identify when challenges will arise. This then helps district management to be proactive in meeting those challenges. School districts are encouraged to update their forecasts with ODE when events take place that will significantly change their forecast or, at a minimum, when required under statute. In a financial forecast, the numbers only tell a small part of the story. For the numbers to be meaningful, the reader must review and consider the Assumptions to the Financial Forecast before drawing conclusions or using the data as a basis for other calculations. The assumptions are very important to understanding the rationale of the numbers, particularly when a significant increase or decrease is reflected. PURPOSES/OBJECTIVES OF THE FIVE-YEAR FORECAST Here are at least three purposes or objectives of the five-year forecast: (1) To engage the local board of education and the community in long range planning and discussions of financial issues facing the school district (2) To serve as a basis for determining the school district’s ability to sign the certificate required by O.R.C. §5705.412, commonly known as the “412 certificate” (3) To provide a method for the Department of Education and Auditor of State to identify schools districts with potential financial problems O.R.C. and O.A.C. REQUIREMENTS O.R.C. §5705.391 and O.A.C. 3301-92-04 require a Board of Education (BOE) to submit a five-year projection of operational revenues and expenditures along with assumptions to the Department of Education prior to October 31 of each fiscal year and to update this forecast between April 1 and May 31 of each fiscal year. ODE encourages school districts to update their forecast whenever events take place that will significantly change the forecast.
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PICKERINGTON LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT – FAIRFIELD COUNTY ASSUMPTIONS FOR FIVE-YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST
PROJECTED FISCAL YEARS ENDING JUNE 30, 2019 THROUGH JUNE 30, 2023
INTRODUCTION TO THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST AND UNDERSTANDING THE PURPOSE OF THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST The Ohio Department of Education provides the following guidance on how to read a Five Year Forecast: http://education.ohio.gov/Topics/Finance-and-Funding/Five-Year-Forecast/How-to-Read-a-Five-Year-Forecast A forecast is somewhat like a painting of the future based upon a snapshot of today. That snapshot, however, will be adjusted and the further into the future the forecast extends, the more likely it is that the projections will deviate from actual experience. A variety of events will ultimately impact the latter years of the forecast, such as state budgets (adopted every two years), tax levies (new/renewal/ replacement), salary increases, or businesses moving in or out of the district. The five-year forecast is viewed as a key management tool and must be updated periodically. In Ohio, most school districts understand how they will manage their finances in the current year. The five-year forecast encourages district management teams to examine future years’ projections and identify when challenges will arise. This then helps district management to be proactive in meeting those challenges. School districts are encouraged to update their forecasts with ODE when events take place that will significantly change their forecast or, at a minimum, when required under statute. In a financial forecast, the numbers only tell a small part of the story. For the numbers to be meaningful, the reader must review and consider the Assumptions to the Financial Forecast before drawing conclusions or using the data as a basis for other calculations. The assumptions are very important to understanding the rationale of the numbers, particularly when a significant increase or decrease is reflected. PURPOSES/OBJECTIVES OF THE FIVE-YEAR FORECAST Here are at least three purposes or objectives of the five-year forecast:
(1) To engage the local board of education and the community in long range planning and discussions of financial issues facing the school district
(2) To serve as a basis for determining the school district’s ability to sign the certificate required by O.R.C. §5705.412, commonly known as the “412 certificate”
(3) To provide a method for the Department of Education and Auditor of State to identify schools districts with potential financial problems
O.R.C. and O.A.C. REQUIREMENTS O.R.C. §5705.391 and O.A.C. 3301-92-04 require a Board of Education (BOE) to submit a five-year projection of operational revenues and expenditures along with assumptions to the Department of Education prior to October 31 of each fiscal year and to update this forecast between April 1 and May 31 of each fiscal year. ODE encourages school districts to update their forecast whenever events take place that will significantly change the forecast.
Required funds to be included in the forecast are:
General funds (001) Any special cost center associated with general fund money Emergency levy funds (016) Any debt service (002) activity that would otherwise have gone to the general fund Education Jobs Fund (504)
For the Pickerington Local School District, this forecast is required to consider the general fund and the other special cost centers associated with general fund money. Additionally, a small portion of Ed Jobs funding, which was provided by the federal government via stimulus funding, is also included for fiscal year 2013. The following definitions will assist the reader/community member as he/she reads the assumptions to the forecast, or takes part in discussions about the forecast. DEFINITIONS
412 Certificates – ORC 5705.412 requires the treasurer, superintendent, and president of the board of education to certify that adequate revenues will be available to maintain all personnel and programs for the current fiscal year and for a number of days in the succeeding fiscal years. 412 Certificates must be attached to:
Appropriations for the current fiscal year Qualifying contracts covering the term of contract Wage and salary schedule for the term of contract Negotiated agreement(s) and contracts for benefits
Encumbrances – Money obligated to pay for any purchase. An end of year encumbrance is money obligated in the current fiscal year to be paid in the next fiscal year. Expenditures – The spending of any public money for a specified purpose as approved by the BOE policy and procedures. Fiscal Year – In education and state government, the fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30, and each fiscal year is dated by the ending date. Example: FY12 would start July 1, 2011 and end June 30, 2012. Revenues – Receipts generated from property taxes, school district income taxes, state foundation formula, and local monies (such as donations, fees, tuition, etc.).
Finally, since the preparation of a meaningful five-year forecast is as much an art as it is a science and entails many intricacies, it is recommended that you contact the Treasurer/Chief Fiscal Officer of the Pickerington Local School District, Ryan Jenkins at (614) 834-2140 to discuss any questions you may have. You may also email him at [email protected].
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REVENUES LINE 1.010--General Property Tax (Real Estate) Property taxes currently comprise 30.0% of total general fund revenue—a significant source of revenue for the District. Changes in valuation due to inflation/reappraisal are ‘offset’ by increases or decreases in millage so that the District receives the same amount of tax revenue as in the previous year. The District will undergo a complete reappraisal in 2019, and a triennial update in 2022. The forecasted increase in overall residential/agricultural values (Class I values) due to reappraisal/inflation for 2019 is 4.56%, and it is 4.69% in 2022. On the Class II (Commercial/Industrial) side, the 2019 and 2022 forecasted increases due to reappraisal/inflation are each 4.31% respectively. New construction in the District does allow for growth in tax revenue. For the 2018 (payable in 2019) tax year, the effect of new construction on Class I picked up a bit, coming in at about 1.8% over 2017. On the Class II side (commercial/industrial), the District saw an increase of 1.0% due to new construction of businesses in the community. For the forecasted 2019 tax duplicate (to be released in November 2019), we are expecting growth of 1.80% for new construction for Class I property, and 1.50% for Class II property values. New construction/growth in Class I property values has historically been vibrant in the PLSD community, although the Great Recession of 2008 negatively impacted this growth from 2009 to about 2013. The growth shown in in the past few years for residential properties is a very positive sign. This forecast anticipates increases in residential valuation due to new construction for Class I property to be at 1.80% per year for tax years 2019 through 2021 (affecting fiscal years 2021, 2022 and 2023), and 1.60% for tax year 2022 (affecting fiscal years 2023 and 2024). This growth will be mainly attributed to 10—12 subdivisions in various stages of planning and development around the District. These developments, and the possible new homes that they might bring to the District, are in the following chart:
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Forecasting Class II growth due to new construction can be a bit more challenging. Over the past 6 years it has averaged about 1.50%; it has been as high as 6.1%, but has been as low as -6.3%. For this forecast, I have assumed a conservative 1.50% (equal to Class I) in forecasted years. Finally, on the strictly agricultural side, the reader may notice that the value of agricultural property in the District is forecasted to decline through 2022. Changes in Ohio Law that were enacted in the current biennial budget (HB49) have changed the way county auditors value CAUV land, and the forecast is reflective of this overall decrease in the value of CAUV land. Per sources at the Ohio Farm Bureau (https://ofbf.org/2017/07/01/farm-bureau-celebrates-accurate-taxes-farmland/), the value of CAUV land will decline on average about 30% across the next two reassessment cycles.
For Fairfield County, this will occur during the 2019 and 2022 cycles. (Note: CAUV is agricultural land, and HB49 would not affect agricultural land not in CAUV, nor will it affect agricultural buildings.) While this may result in a decline in taxes paid on CAUV land, note that due to HB920 millage adjustment factors, these changes in valuation will be offset by millage adjustments that ensure that the District receives the same overall tax revenue. So these CAUV adjustments will simply ‘shift’ a bit of the tax burden to the residential property base. A more detailed look at property values and Real Estate Collections follows in Exhibits 1A—1D:
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ACTUAL Agricultura#A Residential #P ClassII(All #R PP/PUPP #OJ
Exhibit 1D—Detailed Look at Forecasted RE Collections
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LINE 1.020--Tangible Personal Property Tax. The tangible personal property tax has been eliminated for business tangible property (per HB 66). However, it has not been eliminated for public utility tangible personal property (PUPP). In the past, this revenue line had been included into the real estate values above. At only about 1.43% of total general fund revenue, and totaling only $1.693 MM in total collections in FY2018, PUPP doesn’t generate a great deal of revenue. However, the District currently has about $23.97 MM in PUPP valuation (TY2018), and given recent trends that have seen PUPP valuations increase by as much as 11%, we are forecasting about a 3% increase in PUPP valuations moving forward. Subsequently, PUPP tax receipts are projected to grow by about 4.30% on average during the forecasted fiscal years. A more detail look at TPP (PUPP) follows in Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 2—Detailed Look at Forecasted PUPP Tax Revenue
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LINE 1.030—Income Tax. With all income tax settlements received for FY19, suffice it to say that income tax collections have heated up again. FY18 collections were 5.82% higher than FY17, and FY19 collections are 8.33% higher than FY18. We are forecasting year-over-year increases of about 4.61%, on average, per year for FY20-FY23. As a note, this revenue stream is roughly equivalent to 15.01 effective mills of property tax for Pickerington Schools. This revenue source has become one of the fastest growing and most significant sources of revenue for the District, and it continues to increase in its share of total general fund revenue (currently 14.90%).
WithholdingCollections(SD101and141fromallocation)Quarter 3‐Yr.Avg. 5‐Yr.Avg July October January April NETCHNG%July 4.91% 3.92% 2014 4.11% ‐1.81% 6.37% 7.31% 4.00%
EstimatedPayments(SD100ESfromallocation)Quarter 3‐Yr.Avg. 5‐Yr.Avg July October January April NETCHNG%July 8.79% 5.34% 2014 3.56% ‐4.73% 94.56% ‐36.86% ‐3.35%
PaymentswithReturns(SD100fromallocation)Quarter 3‐Yr.Avg. 5‐Yr.Avg July October January April NETCHNG%July 1.02% 3.45% 2014 7.06% 25.61% 8.22% 10.78% 9.30%
Exhibit 3B—Detailed Look at Forecasted Income Tax Revenue—Growth Projections and Historical Changes
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LINE 1.035--Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid (State Foundation). Representing 46.8% of general fund revenue, Unrestricted Grants in Aid (a.k.a. State Foundation) is the most critical piece of funding for the District. This is also the piece of the funding that is directly tied to the biennial budget. HB 166, the 2020-2021 biennium budget bill, was adopted by the House on May 9, 2019. While the final details of the budget bill will unfold over the course of the next 6 weeks, there are pieces of information that have been adopted in these assumptions. Per pupil funding has been set at $6,020 per pupil. Weighted categorical funding for special education has been increased minimally—by 1% for each school year. There is still a 3% gain cap for state funding, which is the biggest factor that may change moving forward. The model also continues to change the State Share Index over the biennium, which is adding to state funding. In fiscal years 2022 and 2023, the per pupil funding is $6,050 and $6,080 respectively. A more detailed look at State Aid follows in Exhibit 4:
LINES 1.040 AND 1.045--Restricted Grants-in-Aid. This funding is only forecasted to include the Career Technical funding received from the state and Economically Disadvantaged Funding (moved to Restricted Funding by HB 59). While Restricted Grants in Aid are not a significant source of funding for the District in total (only about .8% of overall general funding), the District, through a concerted effort to offer high quality Career Technical courses in the areas of Engineering and Biomedical Science, has increased CTE funding to nearly $600,000 per year. A more detailed look at Restricted Grants in Aid follows in Exhibit 5:
Exhibit 5—Detailed Look at Restricted Grants in Aid
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LINE 1.050--Property Tax Allocation. This category includes State reimbursements for property tax rollbacks and homestead exemptions, and comprises about 3.80% of total general fund revenue. In the past, this revenue line also included the business tangible personal property reimbursement payments to District as a way to hold them harmless from the effects of eliminating business TPP from local tax duplicates (see line 1.020). However, because TPP ‘hold-harmless’ payments accounted for less than 2% of total resources for the District (defined by HB 153 as less than 2% of state aid and local property tax revenue), TPP hold-harmless payments were phased out for the District. This revenue line now includes only those reimbursements from the state of the 12.5% property tax credit provided to local homeowners. Additionally, because all of the District’s current expense levies were in place prior to November of 2013, and are continuing in nature, the HB59 limitation on applying the 10% and 2.5% tax credits to new or replacement levies passed on or after November of 2013 will not affect the rollback reimbursements currently collected by the District. However, it should be noted that for any future levies that the District might seek, these rollbacks will not apply. Exhibit 6, which shows a more detailed look at this revenue line, follows.
Exhibit 6—Detailed Look at Property Tax Allocation
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LINE 1.060--All Other Revenues. This category mostly includes tuition payments made to PLSD for special education students attending the District, TIF payments, interest on investments, and Medicaid School Provider payments. This revenue line only accounts for about 2.2% of total general fund revenue, but based on the rebound of interest rates and an aggressive investment strategy by the District, investment income has nearly tripled over the last 3 fiscal years. Moreover, the District has taken an active approach in BOR cases, which has resulted in various PILOT (payment in lieu of taxes) arrangements with various businesses. A more detailed look at All Other Revenues follows in Exhibits 7A, 7B, and 7C:
Exhibit 7C—Detailed Look at Other Operating Revenue
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EXPENDITURES LINE 3.010--Personnel Services. Calculations for Personnel Services (salaries and wages) are based on actual historical expenditures, current staffing levels, forecasted staffing levels, and approved salary schedules and contracts with the Pickerington Education Association (PEA) and the Pickerington Support Staff Association (PSSA). Expenditures for salaries currently comprise about 56.1% of all general fund expenses. For FY18 and forward, increased technology demands; a need to increase offerings in the Arts and Music; a need to add student supports to meet diverse learning needs; a need for additional administrative staffing at the Junior High and Middle School levels; and population growth have driven the following staffing changes:
Area of Need 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Technology +1.0 FTE Systems Analyst;
+2.0 FTE Technology Coordinators
+1.0 FTE Network Admin
Additional Programming
+1.0 FTE Computer Science Teacher JH Level ; +2.5 General Music Teachers Elementary School ; +1 Art Teacher ; +.5 Arts Coordinator ;
+ 1.0 FTE Gr. 6 Harmon ; +1.0 FTE Elementary Teacher Violet ES ; +.50 FTE KLIP Teacher Tussing ES ;
+3.0 FTE in for K-6 growth +3.0 FTE for overall student growth; +2.0 Team Teachers ELA/Math Lakeview JH ; +.50 FTE ELA Teacher PHSC
+3.0 FTE for -FY22 for overall student growth
Student Support for Subgroups
+3.0 FTE Intervention Specialists for MD Unit Growth ; +5.0 FTE Paras for MD Support ; +2.0 FTE Inclusion Teachers ; +3.0 FTE Paras Inclusion Support ; +1.0 FTE Special Ed Coach ; +1.0 FTE EL Coach ; +.50 FTE KLIP Teacher Tussing ES ; +.50 FTE Para for KLIP Tussing ES ; +1.0 FTE Pyschologist
+1.0 FTE Inclusion Teacher ; +1.0 FTE EL Teacher ; +.50 FTE KLIP Teacher Fairfield ES ; +1.0 ELA Teacher PAS ; +1.0 KLIP Parapro Fairfield ES ; +1.0 FTE Pyschologist ; +1.6 FTE Speech/Lang. Therapists (Fed Funds)
+2.0 FTE Inclusion Teachers
Student Health/Wellness Needs
+1.0 FTE Nurse +1.0 FTE Social Worker
Administrative +2.0 FTE Admins (1.0 FTE MS Admin; 1.0 FTE JH [Admin split .50 FTE per Lakeview and Ridgeview JH])
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In May of 2018, the PEA and the Board agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement that will run from July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2021. The PEA agreed to a base wage increase of 2.50% for FY19; and 2.0% for both FY20 and FY21. Insurance splits did not change (80% Board-20% employee). The contract with the PSSA runs from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2020. The parties negotiated base wage increases of 2.25% in FY18; 2.25% in FY19; and 1.50% for FY20. Like the PEA agreement, the PSSA agreement contains a provision whereby health insurance premiums are split 80%-20%. But the PSSA agreement also provides a high deductible health plan option that has an 85%-15% split of premiums. The forecast also continues to assume wage inflation (comprised as step and base increases, whether negotiated or not) as follows on the next page:
The following chart shows historical and projected FTE levels: **Note: Beginning in FY17, this tool is also used to track federally funded staff instead of just local staff. To reconcile the difference between FY16 and FY17 in total FTE for the general fund only, subtract 30.0 FTE staff members who are federally funded. I.E., FY17 total FTE with federal funds is 1,047.81. Subtract out 30.0 FTE federal staff FTE to get a net General Fund FTE for FY17 of 1,017.81. Net change in general fund FTE from FY16 to FY17 is therefore 26.84 FTE. Additionally, beginning in FY17, food service staff pulled out into its own group—no effect on general fund finances due to food service being paid from fund 006.
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A detailed look at the changes in wage inflation and FTEs, and how these factors affect overall personnel wages, follows in Exhibit 8.
LINE 3.020--Employees’ Retirement/Insurance Benefits. This line item is based on the negotiated agreement with the PEA and PSSA, employee benefit plans and Board policy. Representing 20.7% of general fund expenses, this category includes retirement system contributions, Medicare, medical/dental/life insurance, workers’ compensation, School Employees Retirement System surcharge, and unemployment compensation. As noted in the note on Personnel Services/Salaries (Line 3.010), the PLSD Board of Education completed negotiations with the PEA in May of 2018, and the PSSA in the spring of 2017. The new PEA agreement is effective July 1, 2018, and runs through June 30, 2021. The PSSA agreement runs through June 30, 2020. During the most recent negotiations with the PEA in May of 2018, minor changes to the plan were enacted to help to offset some claims costs. However, even with those changes, the forecasted increase for health care premiums for the 2018-2019 school year was 10.1%. For the 2019-2020 school year, the medical insurance premiums will stay steady due to the performance of the health insurance self-insured fund (i.e. 0% increase). For 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023, the forecasted increases are 6.50%, 6.75%, and 7.00%. These are considerably lower than the October submission due to updated medical trend data provided to the District by its insurance consultants. Based on increased staffing projections noted in Line 3.010, the District is forecasting increased costs for salary driven fringes. Every school must pay an additional 14% in STRS/SERS contributions for each $1 paid to an employee. Additionally, the Board share of Medicare is 1.45%, and Worker’s Compensation is about an additional .5%. In all, every $1 paid to an employee results in an additional $.16 paid in salary driven fringes. Hence, new employees add additional benefit costs. Finally, additional employees also typically generate increased enrollment in the health care plan. With the Board paying 80% of premium costs, added staffing also adds to health care costs in the form of more premium volume. Along with the increase in premium costs each year of the forecast, the added staffing is forecasted to substantially increase the cost of health care for the District in future years. Future enrollment trends are forecasted as follows: 2018-2019: 795 employees 2019-2020: 806 employees (increase of about 11 employees over 2018-2019) 2020-2021: 810 employees (increase of about 4 employees over 2019-2020) 2021-2022: 813 employees (increase of about 3 employees over 2020-2021) 2022-2023: 816 employees (increase of about 3 employees over 2021-2022) Finally, the Cadillac Tax, as enacted by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, has again been delayed by Congress until 2022. This trend will always need to be monitored as the 40% Excise Tax associated with it would be devastating to the District.
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A more detailed look at Retirement/Insurance Benefit costs follows in Exhibits 9A—9E:
Exhibit 9E—Detailed Look at Retirement/Insurance Benefits—Forecasted Cost of Board Share of Insurance Plans
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LINE 3.030—Purchased Services. This line item is based on historical patterns and current economic factors. Year over year increases for major components like utilities, transportation services, etc. are now included in the detailed notes for the specific object codes referencing these items (see exhibits 10B-10D). Expenses for purchased services account for about 16.5% of general fund expenses. This category includes a wide variety of expenditures, including:
utilities; student transportation; tuition paid to other Districts (SF-14, SF-14H, SF-PD, etc.—deductions automatically taken from State Funding) College Credit Plus Tuition Legal fees and other professional services; repairs and maintenance all District major leases, including the 1:1 technology device leases network connectivity for Internet and WAN (wide area network) connectivity
A more detailed look at Purchased Services costs follows in Exhibits 10A—10D:
Exhibit 10D—Detailed Look at Professional & Transportation Expenses, & College Credit Plus
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Line 3.040--Supplies and Materials. This line, which only comprises about 3.3% of general fund expenses, again contains a wide variety of expenses. Some major categories include:
Fuel for vehicles and buses, and maintenance and custodial supplies/repair parts (historically approximately 30% to 35% of supply purchases)—fluctuations in fuel prices may significantly impact the expenditures in this category.
Instructional materials, general supplies, textbooks (including CCP texts), and electronic subscriptions (about 65%-70% of supply purchases) A more detailed look at Supply costs follows in Exhibits 11A—11C:
Exhibit 11C—Detailed Look at Maintenance/Custodial, Transportation and Fuel
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LINE 3.050--Capital Outlay. Though only accounting for about .80% of general fund expenses, expenditures for capital outlay in future years includes significant additions for the purchase of technological equipment. This is designed to allow the District to stay up to speed with state testing other required programmatic changes (Ohio Academic Content Standards, STEM, Project Lead the Way, etc.) which require more robust technology infrastructure. Finally, because of the savings appreciated via our transportation contracts by purchasing our own buses, the District is also budgeting to purchase 2—3 additional buses and 3—4 additional school vehicles per year through 2023. Exhibits 12A—12B show a more detailed look at Capital Outlay expenses:
Exhibit 12B—Detailed Look at Equipment by Capital Outlay type
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LINE 4.300--Other Objects. Accounting for about 1.3% of general fund expenses, this line contains miscellaneous expenditure categories, and is primarily based on historical trends. The major expenditures in this line include county auditor and treasurer fees, and State Foundation deductions for the Fairfield County Educational Service Center. A more detailed look at Other Object Expenditures follows in Exhibits 13A—13B:
LINE 5.010-5.030—Operating Transfers Out, Advances Out and All Other Financing Uses For FY19-FY23, there are forecasted transfers to the Capital Improvement Fund. Those transfers are noted below, and total $3.25MM. Additionally, the District anticipates transfers of $250,000 to the 035 Termination Benefits (Severance) fund in FY20, and an additional $125,000 transfer in FY22. Exhibit 14—Detailed Look at Other Financing Uses
Lines 6.010, 7.010, 7.020 The following exhibit shows the overall impact on a simplified income/expense statement for the District. Exhibit 15—Simplified Income and Expense Statement