PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE GERMAN POWER SYSTEMvaasanseutu.fi/app/uploads/sites/7/2016/03/WS_6_Simon_Philipps.pdf · PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE GERMAN POWER SYSTEM ... EEG: January 2009 1,000

© Fraunhofer ISE© Fraunhofer ISE

Past, Now and in the Future

PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE GERMANPOWER SYSTEM

Dr. Simon P. Philipps

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar EnergySystems, ISE / Fraunhofer EnergyAlliance

Wind & Solar Seminar, VaasaEnergy Week

Vaasa, Finnland, 16 March 2016

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

© Fraunhofer ISE

22

CONTENT

n Short Introduction to Fraunhofer

n Now

n PV Installations and Market

n Electricity Generation from Renewables

n Past

n The (Political) Path to High Amounts of PV

n And in the Future

n Cost Perspective

n System Perspective

© Fraunhofer ISE

33

The Fraunhofer-GesellschaftLargest Organization for Applied Research in Europe

n 67 institutes and research units

n Staff of nearly 24,000

n More than €2.1 billion annual research budget, of which around€1.8 billion is generated through contract research

n Roughly 70 percent on behalf of industry and publicly funded researchprojects.

n Roughly 30 percent is contributed by the German federal and stategovernments in the form of base funding.

»Fraunhofer-Linien«“Fraunhofer lines”

© Fraunhofer ISE

44

The Fraunhofer-GesellschaftLocations in Germany

n 67 institutes and research units

n Staff of nearly 24,000 Zentrale

• Main locations

o Other locations

• Headquarters

© Fraunhofer ISE

55

Fraunhofer Energy AllianceFacts and Figures

n 18 member institutes

n 5 business areas

n Renewable Energies

n Energy EfficiencyTechnologies

n Buildings and Components

n Intelligent Energy Systems

n Energy Storage

n Business Office at the FraunhoferInstitute for Solar Energy SystemsISE, Freiburg

Zentrale

© Fraunhofer ISE

66

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISEPerforming Research for the Energy Transformation

Director: Prof. Eicke R. Weber

Staff: ca. 1100

Budget 2015: € 83.7 million(preliminary)

Established: 1981

© Fraunhofer ISE

77

Fraunhofer ISEOur Areas of Business

PHOTOVOLTAICS

SOLAR THERMAL TECHNOLOGY

BUILDING ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGIES

ENERGY SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY

© Fraunhofer ISE

88

CONTENT


n Now



n Past


n And in the Future

n Cost Perspective


© Fraunhofer ISE

9

More than 39 GW of PV are installed in GermanyD

egre

eof

Inte

grat

ion

Picture: SulfurcellPicture: Grammer

Picture: Solarwatt

Single-familiy houses1-10 kWp

Picture: Schüco

Multi-family houses, commercial +public buildings, farms 10-100kWp

Picture: Solarwatt Picture: BP

Large commercial buildings> 100 kWp

ca. 26%

Shareof cumulatedinstallation

until Dec. 2014

<1%

ca. 41%

ca. 19%

ca. 13%

Bui

ldin

g-In

tegr

ated

Roo

ftop

Fiel

dIn

stal

latio

n

SizeData Sources: 2000-2009: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW Solar; From 2010: IHS

Picture: Geosol Picture: Phoenix

ca. 26%

© Fraunhofer ISE

1010

Global Cumulative PV Installation until 2014

Data: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2015

20% Germany

10% Italy

12% USA

18% China & Taiwan

13% Japan

© Fraunhofer ISE

1111

Electricity Generation in Germany2015: 30% from Renewables!

Data: BMWi

13% Wind

6% PV8% Biomass

3% Hydro

© Fraunhofer ISE

1212

CONTENT


n Now



n Past


n And in the Future

n Cost Perspective


© Fraunhofer ISE

1313

Contribution of RES to Electricity Supply in GermanyHistorical Development

Data: BMWi

3%

30%

41 GW Wind in 25a

39 GW PV in 15a

Electricity Feed-in Act:Jan. 1991 - March 2000

EEG:January 2009

1,000 roofsprogram:

1991-1995

100,000 roofsprogram:

1999-2003

EEG:August 2004

EEG:April 2000

© Fraunhofer ISE

1414

Electricity Feed-in Act of 1990The First Impulse for Market Entry of RES

n Electricity Market was dominated by a fewlarge power companies

à Aim: Opening of electricity market forproducers of power from RES

n Utilities required to connect RESgenerators to the grid

n Legally fixed prices: 65 to 90 % of averagetariff for final customers

àEffect: Easy access to the grid and fixedprices

àWind energy and small hydropowerprofited primarily

© Fraunhofer ISE

1515

Contribution of RES to Electricity Supply in Germany1,000 and 100,000 Roofs Programs

Data: BMWi

3%

30%


EEG:January 2009

EEG:August 2004

EEG:April 2000

1,000 roofsprogram:

1991-1995


1999-2003

© Fraunhofer ISE

1616

1,000 and 100,000 Roofs ProgramsIncentives for PV-Installations

n Electricity Feed-in Act: Price for renewableenergy connected to respective electricitypriceà No push for development of not-yetcompetitive renewables

n Early 90s: 1,000 Roofs program as incentiveto install PV on buildings (1-5 kW)à ~ 70% of investment was granted by the

government

n 1999-2003: 100,000 Roofs program:low interest credits for PV installations

Source: Wikipedia

© Fraunhofer ISE

1717

A new Strategy in GermanyThe Renewable Energy Act (EEG)

Data: BMWi

3%

30%


EEG:January 2009

EEG:August 2004

EEG:April 2000


1999-2003

1,000 roofsprogram:

1991-1995

© Fraunhofer ISE

1818

How Does the Feed-In Mechanism Work in Germany?

n Strength of Feed-in-Tariff

n Attractive and secureinvestments

n Distribution of costs over along period and among a highnumber of people

n Digressive rates lead to costreduction and earlyinvestments

n Each technology can besupported individually

n Weaknesses

n Political Dependency

n Growing costs at thebeginning

Government

Utility

Payment forconventionalelectricity

Conventionalelectricity

Electricity

consumer

Provides for gridaccess, setsfeed-in tariffs

Feed-inpayment

Renewable

electricity

RES-EProducer

+ Feed-in-Tariff-bonus

© Fraunhofer ISE

1919

n Typical PR ~70%

n Very wide PR-range

The Success of the EEG for PV - ITechnological Improvements: Performance Ratio in the1990s

Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation

© Fraunhofer ISE

2020

The Success of the EEG for PV - ITechnological Improvements: Performance Ratio Today

n Typical PR ~80-90%

n Less variance of PRas compared to1990s

Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation

© Fraunhofer ISE

2121

The Success of the EEG for PV - IIPrice Reduction of PV Systems in Germany 2006 - 2015

Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG 2015

BOS incl.

Inverter

Modules

Source: Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 24 March 2016

Average Price for PV Rooftop Systemsin Germany (10kWp - 100kWp)

© Fraunhofer ISE

2222

The Success of the EEG - IIIElectricity Costs in Germany

Data: BMU, EEG 2014 and BMWi Energiedaten. Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE , Update: 16.10.2015


© Fraunhofer ISE

2323

The Success of the EEG - IIIPV-Electricity Cost in Germanyà Grid Parity in 2011!



© Fraunhofer ISE

2424

The Success of the EEG - IIIPV-Electricity Cost in Germanyà Comparable to Wind



© Fraunhofer ISE

2525

CONTENT


n Now



n Past


n And in the Future

n Cost Perspective


© Fraunhofer ISE

2626

Price Learning CurveDriven by Market Growth and Technology Developments

Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics.Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

Learning Rate:Each time the cumulativeproduction doubled, theprice went down by 19.6%for the last 34 years.

© Fraunhofer ISE

2727

Long-term utility-scale PV system price scenarios


© Fraunhofer ISE

2828 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics.Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

Levelized Cost of ElectricitySolar Power will soon be the Cheapest Form ofElectricity in Many Regions of the World

© Fraunhofer ISE

2929

Levelized Cost of ElectricityFinancial and Regulatory Environments will be the Keyto Reducing Cost in the Future


© Fraunhofer ISE

3030

Electricity System with High Shares of RenewablesExample: Electricity Generation in Germany in Jan. 2014

Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX, http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

Interactive graphs on German electricity production: www.energy-charts.de

Actual Production

Max. Power Date Max. Power Monthly Energy

© Fraunhofer ISE

3131

Electricity System with High Shares of RenewablesExample: Electricity Generation in Germany in June2014

Graph: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX, http://www.transparency.eex.com/de/

Actual Production

Max. Power Date Max. Power Monthly Energy

Interactive graphs on German electricity production: www.energy-charts.de

© Fraunhofer ISE

3232

How Will the Energy System Look Like in 2050?

Electricity

HeatMobility

à Develop a model to simulate the transformation of the energy system

© Fraunhofer ISE

3333

Model Germany’s Energy System

REMod-D

RenewableEnergy Model –Deutschland

Techno-economicoptimization basedon comprehensivesimulation (hourlytime scale)

Electricity generation,storage and end-use

Fuels (including biomassand synthetic fuels from

RE)

Mobility(battery-electric,

hydrogen, conv.fuel mix)

Processes inindustry and

tertiary sector

Heat (buildings,incl. storageand heatingnetworks)

Henning, H-M., Palzer, A.: Was kostet die Energiewende?, Study Fraunhofer ISE, November 2015

© Fraunhofer ISE

3434

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

GWCHPHP

RenewablesFossil

ElectricityImport

Electricity Renewables SurplusExport Fossil

Hydrogen Raw biomassHeat Liquid fuelsGas Electricity

Hard coal PP

Nuclear PP

Reforming

Battery stor.

Pumped stor.

H2-2-Fuel

GT

CCGT

District heat

Oil PP

Lignite PP

Processing

Bio-2-el.

H2-storage

Electrolysis

Methanation

TWhGW

0

108

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Solar thermal

PV

Hydro power

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Raw biomass

00 0

103

Biogasstorage

0

TWh 36 TWh18

1

85

Bio-2-Liquid 91 TWh

TWh

TWh

Hard coal

Lignite

Petroleum

TWh

144TWh

0 0

Natural gas

37 13

7 TWh68 27

TWh 3 TWh

485 0 0

3910

CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO2CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO2CO2 reduktion related to 1990:

TWh

TWh 0 TWh

TWh

Uranium 0 0

10

Primary fossilenergy carrier

445

384

Industry (fuel basedprocess)

Electricity (baseload)

80%

TWh

TWh TWh TWh GW

GW 215

237 Final energy237 TWh

TWh 0

0 Conversion0 Losses

375

Bio-2-CH4 00 TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

103

77%

15 TWhTWh

0 Losses502 Final energy630 TWh

GW

GW

125128 TWh

120 TWh6 5

19 Battery veh.

TWh 0 TWhTWh

TWhTWh

TWh

TWh

GWh

GWh

0 0GWh

21

Consumptionsector

121TWh

3TWh

Deepgeothermal

Environ-mental heat

Renewableenergy sources

Renewable rawmaterials

Water

Sun

Bio-2-H20

17632 TWh

0

Wind

335TWh

Biodiesel

5 TWh

Energy conversion Storage

10

375

383

52

49

TWh

TWh

0

0


TWhTWh

TWh

GW

GW

GW

100%

GW

TWhTWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

11

106

20

98

0

Heating (spaceheating and hot

water)

237

20

Total quantity gas

TWh

TWh

TWhTWh

TWh

GW

GW

66

TWh

TWh 17 TWh

TWh

0

0

50

126

Final energy

0%

11

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

20

15

GW0

TWh

TWh

419

21

135

85TWh5

0

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

23%

108

100%

ConversionLosses

00

29%

128 Conversion

Total quantityhydrogen

108 TWh

0%

Total quantity rawbiomass

244

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Biogas plant

2

58

77

55

103 0

103

0

91

141

TWh0

TWh00

0

19

Total quantityheating


264 Final energy280 TWh Mobility

108

71%

Conversion0 Losses


46TWh

87%13%

Total quantityelectricity

39%61%

Total quantity liquidfuels


© Fraunhofer ISE

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

RenewablesFossil

GWCHPHP

RenewablesFossil

ElectricityImport

Electricity Renewables SurplusExport Fossil

Hydrogen Raw biomassHeat Liquid fuelsGas Electricity

Hard coal PP

Nuclear PP

Reforming

Battery stor.

Pumped stor.

H2-2-Fuel

GT

CCGT

District heat

Oil PP

Lignite PP

Processing

Bio-2-el.

H2-storage

Electrolysis

Methanation

TWhGW

0

108

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Solar thermal

PV

Hydro power

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Raw biomass

00 0

103

Biogasstorage

0

TWh 36 TWh18

1

85

Bio-2-Liquid 91 TWh

TWh

TWh

Hard coal

Lignite

Petroleum

TWh

144TWh

0 0

Natural gas

37 13

7 TWh68 27

TWh 3 TWh

485 0 0

3910

CO2 emissions 1990 (reference year) 990 Mio t CO2CO2 emissions 196 Mio t CO2CO2 reduktion related to 1990:

TWh

TWh 0 TWh

TWh

Uranium 0 0

10

Primary fossilenergy carrier

445

384

Industry (fuel basedprocess)

Electricity (baseload)

80%

TWh

TWh TWh TWh GW

GW 215


TWh 0


375

Bio-2-CH4 00 TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

103

77%

15 TWhTWh

0 Losses502 Final energy630 TWh

GW

GW

125128 TWh

120 TWh6 5

19 Battery veh.

TWh 0 TWhTWh

TWhTWh

TWh

TWh

GWh

GWh

0 0GWh

21

Consumptionsector

121TWh

3TWh

Deepgeothermal

Environ-mental heat

Renewableenergy sources

Renewable rawmaterials

Water

Sun

Bio-2-H20

17632 TWh

0

Wind

335TWh

Biodiesel

5 TWh

Energy conversion Storage

10

375

383

52

49

TWh

TWh

0

0


TWhTWh

TWh

GW

GW

GW

100%

GW

TWhTWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

11

106

20

98

0

Heating (spaceheating and hot

water)

237

20

Total quantity gas

TWh

TWh

TWhTWh

TWh

GW

GW

66

TWh

TWh 17 TWh

TWh

0

0

50

126

Final energy

0%

11

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

GW

20

15

GW0

TWh

TWh

419

21

135

85TWh5

0

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

TWh

23%

108

100%

ConversionLosses

00

29%

128 Conversion

Total quantityhydrogen

108 TWh

0%

Total quantity rawbiomass

244

TWh

TWh

GW

GW

Biogas plant

2

58

77

55

103 0

103

0

91

141

TWh0

TWh00

0

19

Total quantityheating


264 Final energy280 TWh Mobility

108

71%

Conversion0 Losses


46TWh

87%13%

Total quantityelectricity

39%61%

Total quantity liquidfuels


© Fraunhofer ISE

REMod-D Energysystem model

© Fraunhofer ISE

3535

What is the cost-optimal transformation pathway of the German overall

energy system including all sectors?

Essential boundary condition:

n Political goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are fulfilled

n Both for the target value and in each single year

Major Guiding Question for the Model

© Fraunhofer

Energy Transition: Techno-Economic Path OptimizationFluctuating Renewable Energy in 2050

#1 -80 % CO2, Coal exit notaccelerated

#2 -80 % CO2, Coal exit accelerated




Wind Offshore Wind Onshore PV

Inst

alle

dP

ower

2050

inG

W

© Fraunhofer

Energy Transition: Techno-Economic Path OptimizationEnergy and CO2 in the - 85-%-Scenario


Electricity GenerationTWh

Electricity ConsumptionTWh

Primary EnergyTWh

CO2 - EmissionsMio. t

© Fraunhofer

Increasing cost for CO2 -Emissions to 100 €/Ton in2030; constant afterwards

Increasing prices for fossil fuels(2 % p.a.)

Increasing cost for CO2 -Emissions to 100 €/Ton in2030; constant afterwards

Increasing prices for fossil fuels(2 % p.a.)

Energy Transition: Techno-Economic Path OptimizationCost in the - 85-%-Scenario

Kumulative Kosten 2014-2050, Mrd. €

Kumulative Kosten 2014-2050, Mrd. €

No cost of CO2 - Emissions

Constant prices for fossil fuels

No cost of CO2 - Emissions

Constant prices for fossil fuels

Boundary Conditions


Cumulative Costs 2014-2050, Mrd. €

Cumulative Costs 2014-2050, Mrd. €

© Fraunhofer

How Will the Energy System Look Like in 2050?

Electricity

HeatMobility

Essential messages out of the model:

The cost of the new Energy System is not higher thanthe cost for the current system!

The cost for transformation is in the same order asmaintaining the current system!

© Fraunhofer

Ren

ewab

leEn

ergy

Shar

eThe Phases of the Energy Transition

Phase 1 (completed)

n Installation of RenewableEnergies primarily forelectricity generation(Wind, PV)

n No substantial change ofthe system architecture

Phase 2 (ongoing)

n System Transformationn Flexible Generation and

Consumption of Electricityn Promotion of Efficiency and

decrease of consumptionn Infrastructure-setup (e.g. heat

networks)n Natural gas essential, in

particular for complementaryelectricity generation

n Storage becomes moreimportant

n Business Models for storageoperation and complementaryelectricity generation

Phase 3

n „The last 15-20 percent“n Long-time storage (e.g.

power-to-gas forelectricity/heat)

n Displacement of naturalgas (Power-to-Gas)

n International networks

Time

Source: Hans-Martin Henning, Andreas Palzer (Fraunhofer ISE)

© Fraunhofer

Summary

n PV has become a cost-efficient and major element of the German electricitysystemà 6% of the German Electricity Generation in 2015

n Several political means have enabled technology improvements and costreduction of PVà 8-10 ct./kWh

n Cost of PV systems will decrease further making PV the cheapest form ofelectricity in many regions of the worldà 2-4 ct./KWh

n Financial and regulatory environments will be the key to reducing cost in thefuture

n The key for an energy system based on Renewables is to link the electricity,heat and transport sectors.

© Fraunhofer ISE

4242

Thank you colleagues at Fraunhofer ISEand you for your attention

Dr. Simon P. [email protected]

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE GERMAN POWER SYSTEMvaasanseutu.fi/app/uploads/sites/7/2016/03/WS_6_Simon_Philipps.pdf · PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE GERMAN POWER SYSTEM ... EEG: January 2009 1,000

Documents