Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division Gunawan Sutanto, Hd of Research Aditya Perdana Putra, Economist & Equity Analyst Martha Christina, Equity Analyst Destya Faishal, Junior Analyst Sector Coverage Gunawan Sutanto: Miscellaneous Industry, Agriculture, Mining Aditya Perdana Putra: Banking, Property, Construction Martha Christina: Consumer Goods, Basic Industry, Trade & Services Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower, Level 23B Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 33A Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Phone: +62 21 57 900 900 Email: [email protected]www.poems.co.id Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only. Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
26
Embed
Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Division Sector ... · Sector Coverage. Gunawan Sutanto: Miscellaneous Industry, Agriculture, Mining. ... Securities Indonesia be liable
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
1
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• This presentation is prepared by Phillip Securities Indonesia, PT. (“PSI”). By going through this presentation, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below.
• This presentation shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this presentation.
• The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Indonesia has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities Indonesia has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Indonesia shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities Indonesia be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.
• Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
2
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Total (I+II) Current Account (I) Capital and Financial Account (II)
Grafik. Pertumbuhan PDB Grafik. Perkembangan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia
Source Bank Indonesia, BPS Source Bank Indonesia, BPS
• PDB QIII-13 tercatat 5.62%,
• Defisit transaksi berjalan QIII-13 sebesar USD 8.4 miliar (3.8% dari PDB)
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Foodstuff Transportation, CommunicationPrepaid foods, beverages, cigarette and tobacco ClothingHousing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Fuel Education, Recreation, and SportHealth
Source: BPS
Year on year Inflation of Indonesia (%)
• Porsi transportasi, dan bahan makanan mengakumulasi kenaikan terbesar bagi inflasi di 2013,
seiring dengan kenaikan harga BBM.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Source: CEIC, CITI Indonesia Source: CEIC, CITI Indonesia
Composition of Indonesia Export (Jan – Jun 13) Composition of Indonesia Import (Jan – Jun 13)
• Komoditas menyumbang sekitar 50% terhadap total Ekspor Indonesia,
• Mesin, barang-barang elektronik, baja dan besi menyumbang sekitar 40% dari total Impor
Indonesia.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Kenaikan defisit transaksi berjalan, diikuti pula oleh pelemahan mata uang negara yang bersangkutan.
• Indonesia tercatat memiliki defisit sebesar 3% dengan pelemahan nilai tukar yang mencapai 14%.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Forecast Dates Unit Frequency 11960.00 11960.00 16650.00 888.11 12052.04 | 2014/01 1991 - 2013 Daily
Source: Trading Economics
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Kenaikan harga minyak, masihakan tetap menjadi concern bagipemerintah. Terlebih hal ini akanmembebani APBN dan CAD.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• PDB diprediksi mencapai 5.8% dengan tingkat inflasi yang kembali moderat di level 5%,
• Rupiah diprediksi kembali ke level Rp 11,000/US$ – 11,300/US$ di tahun depan, dengan defisit
yang kami perkirakan akan dibawah minus 3%.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Global Systemic Risk on Banking Sector in Indonesia
Source: vlab.stern.nyu.edu
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Pertumbuhan PDB akan berkisar di antara 5.5%-6%,
• Konsumsi masyarakat akan tetap menjadi motor utama bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
ke depan.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• Jokowi dianggap memiliki nilai yang baik dimata masyarakat, dan menggungguli sejumlah
kandidat kuat lainnya seperti Prabowo dan Aburizal Bakrie.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
• PDI-P diunggulkan dengan sejumlah calon yang dianggap dapat mengakomodir keinginan rakyat
dan memiliki figur yang mempunyai elektabilitas yang tinggi.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.
Phillip Securities Indonesia. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation.Phillip Securities Indonesia accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.