Philippine Statistics Authority SPECIAL RELEASE OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICIAN Volume I No. 2 Quezon City, Philippines If you want to know more about these statistics write or call Crops Statistics Division 376-2022 PSA Website: http//www.psa.gov.ph PALAY Palay production for January-June 2016 may decline to 7.66 million MT, 7.98 percent below the 8.32 million MT output in 2015. Harvest area may cut down from 2.06 million to 1.93 million hectares, or by 6.27 percent. Yield per hectare may drop by 1.83 percent, from 4.04 MT in 2015 to 3.96 MT in 2016 (Table 1.0). The January-March 2016 palay production at 3.93 million MT fell from the 2015 output of 4.37 million MT by 9.97 percent. Harvest area dropped to 1.08 million hectares from last year’s record of 1.15 million hectares. Yield per hectare lessened from 3.80 MT in 2015 to 3.64 MT in 2016 or by 4.31 percent (Table 1.1). - Substantial decreases in production were noted in Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, MIMAROPA, Western Visayas and SOCCSKSARGEN. April 2016 Round Situation and Outlook Report HIGHLIGHTS Palay and corn outputs for January to March 2016 were lower than their 2015 levels by 9.97 percent and 19.07 percent, respectively. The negative growth was largely attributed to the adverse effects of the El Niño Phenomenon, damages in yield caused by Typhoon “Nona” during 4 th quarter 2015 and flooding caused by the North East Monsoon rains in January 2016. Forecasts on standing crops of both palay and corn indicate lower production in the second quarter of 2016. These may bring about reduction in outputs by 5.79 percent for palay and by 10.18 percent for corn. Planting intentions of palay and corn farmers for the July-September 2016 harvest indicate substantial increases in output levels compared to their respective records in 2015.
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Philippine Statistics Authority
SPECIAL RELEASE OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICIAN
Volume I No. 2 Quezon City, Philippines
If you want to know more about these statistics
write or call Crops Statistics Division 376-2022
PSA Website: http//www.psa.gov.ph
PALAY
Palay production for January-June 2016 may decline to
7.66 million MT, 7.98 percent below the 8.32 million MT output in 2015. Harvest area may cut down from 2.06 million to 1.93 million hectares, or by 6.27 percent. Yield per hectare may drop by 1.83 percent, from 4.04 MT in 2015 to 3.96 MT in 2016 (Table 1.0).
The January-March 2016 palay production at 3.93 million MT fell from the 2015 output of 4.37 million MT by 9.97 percent. Harvest area dropped to 1.08 million hectares from last year’s record of 1.15 million hectares. Yield per hectare lessened from 3.80 MT in 2015 to 3.64 MT in 2016 or by 4.31 percent (Table 1.1).
- Substantial decreases in production were noted in Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon,
MIMAROPA, Western Visayas and SOCCSKSARGEN.
April 2016 Round Situation and Outlook Report
HIGHLIGHTS
Palay and corn outputs for January to March 2016 were lower than their 2015 levels by 9.97 percent and 19.07 percent, respectively. The negative growth was largely attributed to the adverse effects of the El Niño Phenomenon, damages in yield caused by Typhoon “Nona” during 4th quarter 2015 and flooding caused by the North East Monsoon rains in January 2016.
Forecasts on standing crops of both palay and corn indicate lower production in the second quarter of
2016. These may bring about reduction in outputs by 5.79 percent for palay and by 10.18 percent for corn. Planting intentions of palay and corn farmers for the July-September 2016 harvest indicate substantial
increases in output levels compared to their respective records in 2015.
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- Decrements in harvest area and low yield were attributed mostly on insufficient water supply and effect of dry spell across the regions in the country.
- Typhoon “Nona” which occurred on the 4th
quarter 2015 affected the 1st quarter 2016 palay production in Central Luzon and MIMAROPA. Moreover, the drought in some provinces in these regions caused crop damages resulting to declines in harvest area and yield.
- The reduction of harvest area in Cagayan Valley
was affected by flood in Cagayan province which was caused by the North East Monsoon rains.
- In Western Visayas and SOCCSKSARGEN, crops
were damaged due to the adverse effects of El Niño during vegetative and reproductive stages of palay.
The April-June 2016 forecast on standing crop
indicates production of 3.73 million MT, 5.79 percent lower than 3.96 million MT output in 2015. Harvest area may contract from 914 thousand hectares to 852 thousand hectares, or 6.71 percent. However, yield may rise from 4.33 MT per hectare in 2015 to 4.37 MT in 2016 (Table 1.2).
- Most of the regions may possibly have negative
production except for Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Bicol.
- Probable reductions in production are expected due to decreases in harvest area and yield as affected by El Niño. Abrupt drops are likely to be in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and ARMM.
- Possible increments in Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon are attributed to replanting after the occurrence of flood and typhoon “Nona”, respectively. The use of hybrid seeds in Bicol may also cause an upward movement.
The July-September 2016 forecast based on farmers’ planting intentions indicates increase in production by 24.69 percent, from 2.55 million MT in 2015 to 3.18 million MT. Harvest area may expand from 653 thousand hectares to 820 thousand hectares, or by 25.68percent. Yield per hectare may decline from 3.91 MT in 2015 to 3.88 MT in 2016 (Table 1.4).
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- Increments in production are anticipated in all regions except CAR and MIMAROPA.
- Probable increases in harvest areas are attributed to the forecast from PAG-ASA on the early onset of rains, availability of irrigation waters and government interventions. Farmers are upbeat that they can plant palay in May 2016 and onwards.
CORN
The January-June 2016 production of corn may
decline to 2.83 million MT, 16.41 percent below the 3.38 million MT output in 2015. Harvest area may contract from 1.04 million hectares to 0.90 million hectares, or by 13.66 percent. Yield per hectare may decrease from 3.24 MT in 2015 to 3.13 MT in 2016, or by 3.18 percent (Table 2.0). Corn output in January-March 2016 at 1.92
million MT was 19.07 percent lower than the 2.37 million MT record in 2015. Harvest area reduced to 629 thousand hectares or by 12.02 percent from the 2015 level of 715 thousand hectares (Table 2.1).
- The reductions were attributed to Cagayan
Valley, Northern Mindanao, SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM.
- In Cagayan Valley, lower output was
attributed to the movement of harvests to 2nd
quarter due to late plantings for white corn. Also, some areas for yellow corn were left in-fallow due to insufficient water supply. Harvest areas contracted due to shifting to cassava and sugarcane in Isabela and Nueva Vizcaya. Moreover, the occurrence of typhoon “Nona” affected yield during the vegetative stage of the crop.
- In Northern Mindanao, decreased harvest area and yield were due to crop damages,
infestation of rats, and lesser plantings due to insufficient rainfall caused by prolonged dry spell.
- The reduction in harvest area and yield in SOCCSKSARGEN were attributed to damages
in crop brought by the adverse effects of El Niño phenomenon and rat infestation in North Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat.
- In Maguindanao, damaged harvest areas and decreased yield brought by dry spell
contributed to output reduction in ARMM.
Yield per hectare decreased from 3.31 MT in 2015 to 3.05 MT in 2016. This was due to insufficient soil moisture resulting in smaller cobs produced in almost all regions. Even
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then, higher yield compared to last year were noted in Ilocos Region, CALABARZON and Caraga (Table 2.1).
The April-June 2016 forecast on standing crop
indicates lower production and harvest area by 10.18 percent and 17.21 percent, from their respective levels in 2015. Yield per hectare will grow by 8.48 percent from 3.07 MT level in 2015 to 3.3 MT (Table 2.2).
- Northern Mindanao, SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM may post significant reductions in production and harvest areas. These may be due to the adverse effects of El Niño wherein some corn areas were not planted and extreme heat may cause harvests of smaller cobs.
- Probable yield per hectare may rise from 3.07 MT in 2015 to 3.33 MT in 2016. This could be attributed to the anticipation of good weather condition and use of good quality seeds.
Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the July-
September 2016 forecasts on production and harvest area may surpass their 2015 levels by 10.40 percent and 10.25 percent, respectively. Probable yield per hectare in 2015 and 2016 are almost the same (Table 2.4).
- ARMM, Cagayan Valley and Zamboanga Peninsula may contribute to substantial increments in production. Farmers in these regions are optimistic that they can plant corn in the unutilized areas in the previous quarter.
Technical Notes:
Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter. Estimates and forecasts of production and harvest area of palay and corn are generated from the Quarterly Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) of which there are four survey rounds in a year, that is, January, April, July and October. The following are the data taken from these surveys:
1) Production estimates of the previous quarter for each survey round; 2) Forecast one quarter ahead based on the standing crop; and 3) Forecast two quarters ahead based on planting intentions.
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(1)
PRODUCTION ('000MT)
January-March 4,368 3,932 (9.97)
Irrigated 3,471 3,154 (9.11)
Rainfed 897 778 (13.28)
April-June 3,956 3,727 a/ (5.79)
Irrigated 3,451 3,331 (3.47)
Rainfed 505 395 (21.61)
January-June 8,324 7,659 (7.98)
Irrigated 6,922 6,486 (6.30)
Rainfed 1,402 1,173 (16.28)
July-September 2,552 3,182 b/ 24.69
Irrigated 1,919 2,315 20.62
Rainfed 632 867 37.05
January-September 10,875 10,841 (0.32)
Irrigated 8,841 8,801 (0.46)
Rainfed 2,034 2,040 0.30
HARVEST AREA ('000Ha)
January-March 1,149 1,081 (5.91)
Irrigated 805 763 (5.16)
Rainfed 345 318 (7.66)
April-June 914 852 a/ (6.71)
Irrigated 729 710 (2.57)
Rainfed 185 142 (23.05)
January-June 2,063 1,933 (6.27)
Irrigated 1,533 1,473 (3.93)
Rainfed 529 460 (13.03)
July-September 653 820 b/ 25.68
Irrigated 448 537 19.95
Rainfed 205 283 38.19
January-September 2,715 2,754 1.41
Irrigated 1,981 2,010 1.46
Rainfed 734 744 1.28
YIELD/HECTARE (MT)
January-March 3.80 3.64 (4.31)
Irrigated 4.31 4.13 (4.17)
Rainfed 2.60 2.45 (6.08)
April-June 4.33 4.37 0.99
Irrigated 4.73 4.69 (0.92)
Rainfed 2.73 2.78 1.87
January-June 4.04 3.96 (1.83)
Irrigated 4.51 4.40 (2.47)
Rainfed 2.65 2.55 (3.73)
July-September 3.91 3.88 (0.79)
Irrigated 4.29 4.31 0.56
Rainfed 3.08 3.06 (0.83)
January-September 4.01 3.94 (1.71)
Irrigated 4.46 4.38 (1.89)
Rainfed 2.77 2.74 (0.97)
NOTE: Totals, yields and percentage changes were derived from unrounded figures.
a/ - Standing crop
b/ - Planting intentions
2015 Estimates Apr. 2016/2015 Apr. 2016 rd
2016 Forecasts
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Table 1.0 Palay: Crop estimates and forecasts by quarter, by ecosystem,
Philippines, January-September, 2015-2016
ITEMPercent Change
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Table 1.1 Palay: Crop estimates and forecasts by quarter, by region, Philippines, January-March, 2015-2016