Phil Rees, University of Leeds Presentation at the ESPON UK Network Workshop, Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy 1115-1515, 13 May 2009 MWB Business.

Phil Rees, University of LeedsPresentation at the ESPON UK Network

Workshop, Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy

1115-1515, 13 May 2009MWB Business Exchange

10 Greycoat Place, London SW1 P 1SB

The DEMIFER project teamNIDI (co-ordinator) (Netherlands)

Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper

UNVIE (Austria)Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer

IOM/CEFMR (Poland)Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska

Nordregio (Sweden)Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket

University of Leeds (United Kingdom)Phil Rees, John Stillwell, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett

NEAA (Netherlands)Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer

CNR (Italy)Frank Heins

Aims of the project1. to determine how distinctive are current trends in

migration, fertility, and mortality and how they affect differences across regions in population growth, the size of the working age population and the ageing of the population.

2. to forecast how future developments in migration, fertility and mortality will affect population growth and changes in the age structure in different types of regions.

3. to analyse the extent to which the labour force in different types of regions will change due to increases in natural growth, internal migration, international migration and participation rates.

4. to evaluate which policy options could achieve increases in natural growth, migration and labour force participation.

5. to review the extent to which the effects of internal migration, migration between European countries and migration to Europe compensate or reinforce each other.

6. to assess the future effects of climate change on migration flows within, between and into countries and regions.

TasksAssembly of a databaseAnalysis of

demographic regimesA summary typologyThree migration

streams (internal, inter-state, extra-Europe)

Analysis of labour force participation and employment rates

Analysis of the older population

Projection of populations using a multiregional projection model

Reference scenariosPolicy scenariosAssessment of impact

of policy scenarios on regional competitiveness and regional cohesion

Case studies of processes in selected regions

Demographic typologyType Name Regions Demographic profile

1 Young Potentials 16 Young age structure, positive natural increase, positive net migration

2 Euro Standard 85 Slightly older than average age structure, small natural decrease, positive net migration

3 Family Potentials 55 Slightly younger than average age structure, high natural increase & growth

4 Challenge of Decline

31 Negative natural increase and net migration, depopulation, ageing

5 Transitions 59 Varied components, slight population decline

6 Euromediterranean

31 Older populations, natural decrease but with greater net migration

7 Specials (Outliers)

7 High share in young working ages; low share in 65+

Projection model: migration structuresMigration structure incorporated into the MULTIPOLES population projection model

Destinations EU EEA ROW

Origins Austria Belgium … Sweden UK Iceland … Switzerland Extra-EuropeEU Austria … …

Belgium … …… … … … … … … … … …Sweden … …UK … …

EEA Iceland … …… … … … … … … … … …Switzerland … …

ROW Extra-Europe … …

Types of migration flow Inter-regional migration within country EU 27 countriesInter-country migration within Europe EEA 4 countriesCountries with no NUTS 2 regions ROW ~200 countriesImmigration from Rest of the WorldEmigration to the Rest of World

MULTIPOLES projection model modulesScenarios input indicators for fertility,

mortality, internal migration, inter-country migration, extra-European immigration, extra-European emigration

Population projection engine for 31 countries and ~280 NUTS2 regions

Age groups extended to 100+Projected population by age and sex

multiplied by labour force participation ratesLabour force multiplied by employment ratesEmployed multiplied by productivity indicators

Reference scenariosPopulation base ~ 2005 with demographic rates/flows for period around 2005, e.g. 2003-7

Three reference scenarios:1. Status quo projection2. No migration projection (natural

increase only)3. Free movement within Europe but no

extra-Europe migration

Policy Scenarios

Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies

Policy scenarios: ideas about levels and distributions

Next stepsFull details of the topics covered in this

presentation and future plans are given in the DEMIFER Interim Report

The Interim Report will be made available after scrutiny by the ESPON 2013 Monitoring Committee on the web site: http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/programme/1455/2233/2236/2241/index_EN.html