The role of biomass in climate change mitigation Assessing the long-term dynamics of bioenergy and biochemicals in the land and energy systems Vassilis Daioglou May 26 th 2016
The role of biomass in
climate change mitigation
Assessing the long-term dynamics of bioenergy and
biochemicals in the land and energy systems
Vassilis DaioglouMay 26th 2016
2
Introduction
Research questions
Method
Thesis outline
Sythesis and outcomes
Reccomendations
Contents
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Energy and climate change Anthropogenic climate change is primarily driven by emissions from the energy
and land-use systems
Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
(IPCC
, 201
4)
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Climate change mitigation Current trends: global mean temperatures increase by at least 3°C
by 2100 Paris agreement adopted at the 2015 United Nations Climate
Change Conference aims to limit...
“...global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to persue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”
Strategies Changing behaviours and attitudes
– Consumption, diets– Preservation of ecosystem services
Decarbonise the energy system– Increase efficiency– Solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, etc.
Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
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Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
(Chum et al., 2011)
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Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
(Chum et al., 2011)
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Introduction
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
(Chum et al., 2011)
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1. What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
2. What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?
3. What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
4. What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-system in an integrated manner?
Research Questions
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The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) Describes interactions within and between the human and earth systems
– Agricultural economy, energy supply & demand– Land cover and land use, emissions, atmospheric composition and climate
Model Adaptations Supply - Residues Demand - Non-energy (chemicals)
Scenario Analysis Storylines which allow for a broad set of potential long term and global outcomes Explore uncertainties and highlight the requirements, ranges, sensitivities, conflicts
and synergies of biomass strategies
Method
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Chapter 1: Introduction, problem definition, research questions and outline fo the IMAGE model
Chapter 2: Cost-supply curves of agricultural and forestry residues
Chapter 3: Emission-supply curves of advanced biofuels
Chapter 4: Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy (chemicals) sector
Chapter 5: Competing uses of biomass and implications for CO2 mitigation potential
Chapter 6: Comparison of two IAM model concerning biomass supply, demand and climate change mitigation strategies
Chapter 7: Synthesis of insights from previous chapters in order to answer the research questions
Thesis outlineSu
pply
Dem
and
Inte
grat
ion
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Synthesis - outline
Investigate role of biomass in baseline and mitigation scenarios
(O’N
eill
et a
l., 2
014)
Scenarios• SSP1: Optimistic world (low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)• SSP2: Middle of the road• SSP3: Pessimistic world (high challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
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Theoretical Potential:Driven by increased demand of agriculture & forestry products
Ecological Potential:Follows similar trend, but less pronounced
Available Potential:Opposite trend, very small differences
Explanation: competing uses grow significantly from SSP1 to SSP3. Different drivers across scenarios cancel eachother out.
RQ1: Supply Residues
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
SSP1SSP2SSP3
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SSP1: Lots of natural lands are protected High abandonement of productive lands
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
RQ1: Supply Energy crops
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SSP3: Expansion of land for foodLow protection of natural lands
What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
RQ1: Supply Energy crops
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What is the potential future supply of modern biomass from residues and energy crops when accounting for the drivers and constraints in a spatially explicit manner?
Residue supply-curves consistent
Availability of high quality lands in SSP1 leads to extremely high and low cost availability of biomass
RQ1: Supply Curves
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation
2100
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Total global gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass
RQ2: Demand Chemicals
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?
Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood and modelled in long-term models
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Total global gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass
RQ2: Demand Chemicals
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?
Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood and modelled in long-term models
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RQ2: Demand System
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?
SSP2
Base Mitig
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RQ2: Demand System
What is the demand for biomass for different energy and chemical purposes in a dynamic energy system model?
Baseline Scenarios- Liquid bioenergy very important, especially in SSP1 - Also some solids and chemicals, especially in SSP3
Mitigation Scenarios- Increased (but not exclusive) use of BECCS. H2 in SSP1 → increased technological development
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig
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RQ3: Emissions Supply Curves
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)
Increasing supply of biofuels leads to higher emission factors and GHG payback periods.
Lowest GHG effect from abandoned agricultural lands and temperate regions
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RQ3: Emissions Supply Curves
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass eployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
EF85 (kgCO2-eq/GJSec)
Increasing supply of biofuels leads to higher emission factors and GHG payback periods.
Lowest GHG effect from abandoned agricultural lands and temperate regions
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RQ3: Emissions Energy System
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
Biomass competes everywhere
Biomass limitedto specific sectors
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Total emission reduction for each end-use sector: At taxes > 200$/tC, limiting bioenergy to power production is more effective than
having it compete freely
RQ3: Emissions Energy System
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
Biomass competes everywhere
Biomass limitedto specific sectors
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RQ3: Emissions Integrated
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
SSP2
Base Mitig
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RQ3: Emissions Integrated
What is the overall greenhouse gas impact of biomass deployment for bioenergy and biochemicals, taking the potential dynamics of future land use and the energy system into account?
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3Base Mitig Base Mitig Base Mitig
Availability of high quality lands for biomass and protection of carbon stocks in SSP1 leads to high biomass deploymend and land based mitigation!
In SSP2, about 10% of mitigation is due to biomass use, largest contribution from BECCS - Higher in SSP1 (lower LUC, better bioenergy technologies)- Lower in SSP3
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RQ4: The role of biomass Strategies
What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in an integrated manner?
Biomass has an important role- Residues: low cost source, similar across scenarios- Energy crops (lignocellulosic), important at higher demand levels
Conditions for its effective use- Land use scenarios and Protection of carbon stocks
High biomass production with mitigation vs.
Low biomass production in high LUC - Multiple energy and non-energy uses
- Highest mitigation: transport and power- Advanced technologies a must: 2nd gen. Biofuels, BECCS- Competing uses: Improve efficiency and alternate technologies
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RQ4: The role of biomass Strategies
What is the future role of biomass, bioenergy and biochemicals in various climate change mitigation scenarios when accounting for the land and energy-systems in an integrated manner?
- Supply Regions:- Residues:
- Asia - OECD - ...
- Energy crops: - Latin America - OECD - Asia - Africa - ...
Mitigation scenarios SSP1 2.6 SSP2 2.6 SSP3 3.4
2100
Primary Production (EJPrim/yr)Residues 74 75 76Energy Crops 192 144 119Total 266 220 197 Land Use(MHa) 451 359 302 Secondary Bioenergy (EJSec/yr)w/o CCS 94 90 80w CCS 61 33 29 % Total Final Consumption 35% 25% 21%
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Land & feedstock strategies• MESSAGE-GLOBIOM: Economic equilibrium, perfect foresight
– Competition between Agriculture – Forestry – Biomass– Biomass from energy crops and forestry
• IMAGE: Biophysical– Food-first, biomass grown on abandoned and unprotected natural lands– Energy crops and residues
Energy strategies• Importance of 2nd generation biofuels• BECCS important in both models• Timing differences due to foresight and different mitigation options
RQ4: The role of biomass Comparison
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Recomendations
Research• Further investigate model uncertainty• IAM representation of advanced agricultural and conversion systems• Better understand tradeoffs
– Land based mitigation vs. Biomass production; ecological and competing uses; inputs for increased crop yields; further impacts
• Feasibility of IAM projections
Policy• Develop markets for residues and 2nd generation feedstocks • Intensification of agriculture and protection of carbon stocks (global!)• Further develop and roll-out 2nd gen. biofuels and BECCS technologies• Long-term policies, short sighted policies may be counter-productive• Increased trade: international standards, markets, certification schemes,
etc.
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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 1
Adap
ted
from
Ste
hfes
t et a
l. (2
014)
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Industry
Transport
Buildings
Chemicals
CoalOilNatural gasBioenergy
ElectricityHeatH2
CoalOilNatural gasBiomassNuclearSolarWindHydropower
Adapted from Bowman et al. 2006
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 1
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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 2
Context• By-products from agriculture and forestry• Thought to be cheap, plentiful and have very low direct & indirect land use change• Large uncertainty of availability and assessments do not capture important dynamics
– Simple methodologies → Poor understanding of drivers, constraints– Limited exploration of sensitivities, costs, regional differences
Aim & Method• Develop and apply a method to assess the potential, costs, drivers and constraints of
residues• Availability and costs related to production and intensity of agriculture and forestry in
IMAGE• Different potential types: Theoretical → Ecological → Available• Different scenarios: Medium - Optimistic - Pessimistic
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2100
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 2
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Theoretical Potential (GJ/km2)
Ecological Potential (GJ/km2)
Supply Costs ($/GJPrim)
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 2
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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 2
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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 3
Context• Studies have evaluated the emissions of biomass/biofuel production
– Emission Factors (EF) or GHG Payback Period (PBP)– Sutdies usually site and feedstock specific
• Little understanding on:– How EF/PBPs vary across locations– Importance of counterfactual land uses (i.e. Development of natural vegetation)– Biomass/biofuel supply at specific EF/PBP levels– The effect of policies adopting EF/PBPs as sustainability criteria on supply potential
Aim & Method• Determine spatially specific EFs/PBP for different biofuels• Use consistent crop growth and carbon cycle models• Draw emission-supply curves: Biofuel availability at different EF/PBP• Investigate importance of different accounting periods (20yr vs. 85 yr)
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Supplementary Slides: Chapter 3
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Context• Future demand of energy carriers for non-energy uses (chemicals) is poorly understood
and modelled in long-term models• Future potential of biomass is this sector and its potential for emission mitigation is
unclear– Replacing fossil fuels as feedstocks– Recycling and cascading uses
Aim & Method• Assess non-energy sector and develop a long-term demand model• Determine future demand of fossil fuels and biomass for this sector• Determine future emissions and how biomass can contribute to their mitigation• Evaluate different post-consumer waste strategies such as recycling and incineration with
power production
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 4
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Total global gross gross non-energy demandNo-biomass With Biomass
Carbon flows for NoBio and Bio Cases Implications for cascadingCarbon content (CC) accumulated in chemicals and plastics is emitted if incinerated (for power production)
Unless CC is much lower than fossil fuels and incineration plants have high efficiency, cascading may have limited emission reductions
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 4
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Context• Biomass can displace fossil fuels in a number of end-uses
– Buildings, Industry, Transport, Chemcials, Converted to electricity, etc.
• Mitigation potential of biomass depends on a number of elements:– Potential and competitivness of biomass per sector– What (fossil) fuel is displaced and potential leakage– Possibility of advanced technologies– Effect of different competing uses
Aim & Method• Use the TIMER (dynamic energy-system model) to investigate different biomass
uses– Conduct experiments with different biomass use constraints– Compare emission reduction potential of each experiment (with respect to a no-biomass
counterfactual)
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 5
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170EJ/yr22EJ/yr
Secondary energy demand per sector Emissions per sector
Cumulative emission reductions (due to biomass use) per sector
GtCO2 reduction GtCO2 reduction
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 5
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Context• Different IAMs represent the energy and land systems differently• Yet there is broad agreement on the importance of biomass in order to meet the
2°C goal• The reasons behind this “agreement” and the individual strategies each model
adopts are unclear
Aim & Method• Compare the representation of the land and energy systems in two IAMs
– MESSAGE-GLOBIOM– IMAGE
• Compare (bio)energy demand in harmonised baseline and mitigation scenarios– How much biomass is used?– Where is it directed– What are the overall emission mitigation strategies
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 1
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Base
line
Mit
igat
ion
Supplementary Slides: Chapter 1
Vassilis Daioglou - The role of biomass in climate change mitigation