PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004 Steven Zeng Study Report for the PhD course-031112: Sustainable Energy Systems Green House Gas (GHG) Mitigation Opportunities through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in China Division of Energy Engineering Lulea University of Technology
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Ingen bildrubrikSteven Zeng
Green House Gas (GHG) Mitigation Opportunities
through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in China
Division of Energy Engineering
Lulea University of Technology
Steven Zeng
Why CDM?
CDM allows Annex I countries (like Sweden) to invest in low-cost abatement opportunities in developing countries and receive credit for the resulting emissions reductions.
CDM can support sustainable development initiatives within developing countries.
CDM can enhance clean technology transfer to developing countries.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
The CDM Market
The CDM market is in it infancy, supply outstrips demand, and Kyoto Ratification Risk is still restraining the market
The market value of CERs is likely to remain low in the short-to-medium term due to several factors
Currently several key buyers are in the market, World Bank PCF, Dutch CERUPT, Dutch Rabobank, Danish Government, Spanish CDM fund, others e.g. Japan, ADB, Germany, CAMCO
Linking directive of EU-ETS could establish an important market
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Top three are gas capture, fuel switching and renewables projects
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Source: http://www.cdmwatch.org, accurate as of September 25th 2003, publicly available PDDs
China has 2 out of 53 projects and ranks 15th in terms of CERs
China
Chart1
Brazil
Steven Zeng
Source: http://www.cdmwatch.org, accurate as of September 25th 2003, publicly available PDDs
Japan, PCF and Dutch have been the most active buyers to date
Chart2
18 CERUPT projects 18CERUPT
2 Canadian projects 2
1 Swedish project 1
1 Finnish project 1
32,305,857
Steven Zeng
Chart1
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
CO2 emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
1293.3651085865
394.0106085616
1025.2274381752
1259.3974081005
390.6805309627
985.0294541655
1194.4907986368
409.027546365
964.3780098315
1186.9612446352
432.4758293904
948.8433585671
1250.6899881263
468.1050499751
960.0013647707
1247.1156581748
507.5849768568
981.132723942
1250.3607285773
534.5801834096
990.2633586498
1293.0927648922
570.1369951957
998.388573205
1352.7524696098
608.7313178518
987.3391617372
1373.2412181091
617.1273509858
1006.8385381619
1365.7296535808
616.8909687427
1007.0717817603
1354.4878664313
645.7786789142
1002.7626086515
1379.615443677
667.8967296799
965.6261153531
1405.3933297434
711.8563419257
957.6603410317
1426.9984822779
768.0073057041
953.0245254593
1443.2067115868
787.7158270024
972.7031660434
1494.3898912792
803.1458362238
999.1196992771
1513.3812451415
824.2789958304
1004.8358578866
1518.8472317708
805.2023616837
1004.7376750698
1536.6271134137
790.9549397425
1002.0266718578
1584.6993333479
780.3671038178
1017.930869095
1565.3114572668
831.7356481985
1023.8731252478
Sheet1
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)
Table H1 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2001
Region
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
CO2 emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Car Fleet grew from 1 million to 2 million during 1998 to 2003 in Beijing
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
CO2 Emission Forecast in China
BAU means “business as usual”
Revised estimate assumes unreported coal use of 100 MTCE and petroleum consumption of 15 MTCE in 2000
Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study (CCCS). 1999.
China Climate Change CountryStudy. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press.
China State Science and Technology Commission. 1999. Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS): China.
Chart1
ADB
ADB
ADB
ADB
567
740
907
1354
567
740
987
2045
567
740
1027
1636
567
740
915
1584
567
740
915
1695
567
740
950
1663
567
740
882
1370
567
740
724
1265
567
740
800
1449
Sheet1
1990
1995
2000
2020
ADB
567
740
907
1354
BAU means “business as usual”
Revised estimate assumes unreported coal use of 100 MTCE and petroleum consumption of 15 MTCE in 2000.
Revised energy consumption assumes that unreported coal and petroleum use of 100 MTCE and 15 MTCE, respectively, in 2000. Natural gas consumption in the revised case is projected to rise to 200 billion cubic meters in 2020, in line with new government for
Sheet1
1990
1995
2000
2020
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Coal-Fire Power generation is one main resource of CO2/SO2 emission
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Source: EU (2003)
Steven Zeng
Comparison of Carbon Intensity among China, Sweden and other Countries
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product, 1980-2001
(Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars using Market Exchange Rates)
Source: IEA,2002
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
0.3050453021
0.2899289717
0.280671646
0.267327444
0.2626005392
0.2521447818
0.2444502906
0.2444967072
0.2455314017
0.2408029759
0.2353407867
0.2068053994
0.2044083874
0.2028441003
0.1979708273
0.1950147573
0.1949683349
0.1890662036
0.1819574229
0.1768124709
0.1757495864
0.1731641928
2.4718356873
2.3464296154
2.2685942671
2.1721538392
2.0038743578
1.9089318423
1.8529642406
1.7728140398
1.7008419051
1.6544969195
1.5866537262
1.4878082317
1.3469543716
1.2649737332
1.2113651531
1.1243236242
1.0460686426
0.9867245189
0.8941173268
0.8199681083
0.7490641615
0.7468986121
0.1279437676
0.1127105397
0.0965275821
0.0880315629
0.0809687709
0.0852133563
0.0824069086
0.0794292676
0.0762597752
0.068827179
0.0647373312
0.0626820215
0.0647568774
0.0670700264
0.0690493392
0.072835203
0.0732594039
0.0602603139
0.0633646102
0.0585288175
0.0525468292
0.0518478417
0.2217020761
0.2184964701
0.205398598
0.1985550238
0.1922502503
0.1914316758
0.1846917921
0.1796336546
0.1687277951
0.1695323466
0.1653819131
0.1621250047
0.1522210518
0.1495102286
0.1409190843
0.1344266182
0.1365914377
0.1270196055
0.1192176484
0.1173456802
0.1157993487
0.1156069544
0.1412317032
0.1266658164
0.1181601221
0.1116818584
0.1062606425
0.1042889731
0.0945527662
0.0908379348
0.0824842766
0.0855074076
0.0838926425
0.0721481335
0.0687286564
0.0666941405
0.0635794442
0.0647769913
0.0673698508
0.0647571182
0.0664157959
0.0641562755
0.0613812567
0.0596607746
0.1303576183
0.1245835504
0.1131070422
0.1061642358
0.1101848615
0.1040819405
0.0969792943
0.0942089079
0.094990251
0.0935681076
0.0907109325
0.0547148661
0.0556915296
0.0548784764
0.0573075635
0.0562555431
0.0563420634
0.055354555
0.0544390241
0.0547761743
0.054996166
0.0558846332
Sheet1
Table H1g World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product, 1980-2001
Country
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
France
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
Japan
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
(Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars using Market Exchange Rates)
Sheet1
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Small Coal Fire Boiler has great potential of low-cost option on EE
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
CO2 reduction: an example of retrofit of industrial coal fired boiler by efficinecy improvement and/or co-firing with biomass
China total coal comsuption 1.206 GT/yr (2000), 40% for industrial boilers/furnaces:
industrial boilers: 500,000; industrial furnaces: 160,000
average size: 1.5 MWth, efficiency about 60%
imprvement of efficiency 60% to 70% (cheap retrofit, 1-5 USD/tCO2) reduce 94 Mt CO2 /yr (total Swedish emision is about 55 MtCO2/yr)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Efficiency of Motors and Pumps can be improved significantly
There are about 40 million industrial pumps and fans, with total capacity of approximately 85 GW.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Paper and Pulp Industry can learn a lot from Sweden
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Financial Internal Rates of Return for Selected Energy Efficiency Investments in China
“China, Issues and options in Greenhouse gas Emissions Control”, World Bank, December 1994
Steel Conversion of open hearth furnace to basic oxygen furnace Adoption of continuous casting Reheating furnace renovation Blast furnace gas recovery
16 19 36 41
20 71
29
Cement Medium-sized kiln renovation Conversion from wet to dry process Small-scale kiln renovation
15 19 35
25 25
Textiles Cogeneration in printing and dyeing Caustic soda recovery Computerized energy management
38 58 >100
Steven Zeng
Electric Power Sector and
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Targeted sectors
Power Generation
Iron & Steel
Paper & Pulp
Steven Zeng
Estimate CO2 reduction of model plant
Estimate CO2 reduction potential in China
Calculate CO2 reduction costs
corresponding to various cost
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Keio & Tsinghua U.
Collection of basic data of all power plants in North China (power plants in North China)
Classification of power plants
Group 1 50 MW units replace outdated ones with advanced technology
Group 2 100200 MW units Modification
Group 3 300 MW units Fuel switching
The above 3 groups account for 75% of total capacity in North China
Selection of model units/technologies, collection of detailed data, thereafter implementation of site survey
Price of fuel (gas price is about 8 times higher than coal, which is 237RMB/tonne
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Estimate CO2 emission reductions of model units by applying state-of-the-art technologies
Apply model units’ reduction to all others units
50MW100MW200MW
Steven Zeng
Coke Dry quenching (CDQ)
Plant capacity bigger than 1 Mt of Pig Iron, but excludes plants already installed them
Top Pressure Recovery Turbine (TRT)
Blast furnaces exceeding 1000 M3, but excludes plants already installed them
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
-Replacement of wet-process kiln with suspension preheater
-Waste heat power generation
-Utilization of steel slag for cement material
Oil refinery and chemical industry state-of-the-art technology
-Oil refinery (Gasification of oil residue and power generation)
-Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for
cracking furnace)
membrane process
-Replacement of main motors/main auxiliary motors with variable speed motors
-Installation of closed type dryer hood and waste heat recovery equipment for dryer
and other remodeling
Steven Zeng
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by industry
Paper industry Reduction potential is 3941172 thousand ton-CO2. 783 thousand ton-CO2 showed above is average.
27879
5744
783
13275
8625
45550
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Steven Zeng
Reduction Potential (thousand ton-CO2/year)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
--- (Numerator means saved fuel)
=
SBi: revenue, EBi: fuel cost, MBi: maintenance cost of Baseline case
SCi: revenue, ECi: fuel cost , MCi: maintenance cost of CDM case
I0: initial investment cost of the project
(Carbon reduction cost per ton)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Power Plant
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
50 MW Scrap & Build
Steven Zeng
Iron & Steel
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
CDQ
4,764
1.6
-15.3
TRT
980
0.5
-15.6
Total
5,744
Steven Zeng
Paper & Pulp
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
Replacement of main motors etc.
394 - 1,172
Steven Zeng
Cement
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
Replace of small vertical kiln with fluidized bed kiln
4,807
45.0
21.4
357
55.9
26.2
4,260
25.0
10.2
1,959
-2.9
-3.1
Steven Zeng
Oil refinery, Chemicals
Cost, $/t 7 year crediting period
Cost, $/t 14 year crediting period
Oil refinery (Gasification of oil residue and power generation)
6,707
-20.4
-23.3
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
938
-19.8
-33.5
729
-4.7
-5.8
251
24.7
7.5
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Reduction Potential
21.1
Graph1
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
$0
$4.5
$9
$18
Replace of small vertical kiln
4807
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
357
4260
1959
8625
Residue gasification at oil refineries
6707
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
938
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
729
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
251
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by industry
Paper industry Reduction potential is 40117 thousand ton-CO2. 783 thousand ton-CO2 showed above is average.
YReduction Potential (thousand ton-CO2/year)
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by technology
industry,technical
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Replace of small vertical kiln
4807
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
357
4260
1959
8625
8625
Oil Refinary
6707
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
Ethylene
938
Chemical fertilizer
Clor-alkali
251
$0
$4.5
$9
$18
4807
4807
357
357
4260
4260
1959
1959
6707
6707
938
938
729
729
251
251
300MW
Cement Industry
Steel Industry
Power Plant
Steel Industry
Power Plant
Steven Zeng
Tentative Conclusion
Potential CO2 emission reduction in five major sectors is around 100 Mt (Physical potential)
Among them, power generation sector is the largest (especially at 300 MW units)
When considering cost, picture changes drastically
Very few commercially viable projects exist (at zero cost, total reduction will be only 10 Mt, at $4.5, still 16 Mt even under our baseline emission figures)
Fuel switching projects in power sector will not be feasible due to high cost of natural gas
Public funding is essential for promotion of CDM projects in China
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
China represents a large GHG reduction potential at various costs
High growth rate of China makes clean technology transfer financially and technically viable, CDM will enhance this process
Clean Technology Transfer through CDM is a win-win solution for both Sweden and China, with CDM, Sweden is able to transfer its advanced energy efficiency and renewable energy technology to China, e.g. biomass energy, cogeneration etc.
Opportunities shall be provided for Swedish industry to understand Chinese energy market and promote the potential cooperation between two countries.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
China(MTC)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
ADB
World
Bank
UNEP
CCCS
ALGAS
Average-
BAU
Average-
Policy
Reported
Trends
Revised
Estimate
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Waste heat power generation
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
(
)
projects 2INCaFNCDF
13.89
19.93
29.16
4.55
73.2
3.5
2.8
Green House Gas (GHG) Mitigation Opportunities
through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in China
Division of Energy Engineering
Lulea University of Technology
Steven Zeng
Why CDM?
CDM allows Annex I countries (like Sweden) to invest in low-cost abatement opportunities in developing countries and receive credit for the resulting emissions reductions.
CDM can support sustainable development initiatives within developing countries.
CDM can enhance clean technology transfer to developing countries.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
The CDM Market
The CDM market is in it infancy, supply outstrips demand, and Kyoto Ratification Risk is still restraining the market
The market value of CERs is likely to remain low in the short-to-medium term due to several factors
Currently several key buyers are in the market, World Bank PCF, Dutch CERUPT, Dutch Rabobank, Danish Government, Spanish CDM fund, others e.g. Japan, ADB, Germany, CAMCO
Linking directive of EU-ETS could establish an important market
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Top three are gas capture, fuel switching and renewables projects
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Source: http://www.cdmwatch.org, accurate as of September 25th 2003, publicly available PDDs
China has 2 out of 53 projects and ranks 15th in terms of CERs
China
Chart1
Brazil
Steven Zeng
Source: http://www.cdmwatch.org, accurate as of September 25th 2003, publicly available PDDs
Japan, PCF and Dutch have been the most active buyers to date
Chart2
18 CERUPT projects 18CERUPT
2 Canadian projects 2
1 Swedish project 1
1 Finnish project 1
32,305,857
Steven Zeng
Chart1
1980
1980
1980
1981
1981
1981
1982
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1984
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
1987
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1989
1989
1989
1990
1990
1990
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
CO2 emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
1293.3651085865
394.0106085616
1025.2274381752
1259.3974081005
390.6805309627
985.0294541655
1194.4907986368
409.027546365
964.3780098315
1186.9612446352
432.4758293904
948.8433585671
1250.6899881263
468.1050499751
960.0013647707
1247.1156581748
507.5849768568
981.132723942
1250.3607285773
534.5801834096
990.2633586498
1293.0927648922
570.1369951957
998.388573205
1352.7524696098
608.7313178518
987.3391617372
1373.2412181091
617.1273509858
1006.8385381619
1365.7296535808
616.8909687427
1007.0717817603
1354.4878664313
645.7786789142
1002.7626086515
1379.615443677
667.8967296799
965.6261153531
1405.3933297434
711.8563419257
957.6603410317
1426.9984822779
768.0073057041
953.0245254593
1443.2067115868
787.7158270024
972.7031660434
1494.3898912792
803.1458362238
999.1196992771
1513.3812451415
824.2789958304
1004.8358578866
1518.8472317708
805.2023616837
1004.7376750698
1536.6271134137
790.9549397425
1002.0266718578
1584.6993333479
780.3671038178
1017.930869095
1565.3114572668
831.7356481985
1023.8731252478
Sheet1
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent)
Table H1 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2001
Region
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
CO2 emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Car Fleet grew from 1 million to 2 million during 1998 to 2003 in Beijing
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
CO2 Emission Forecast in China
BAU means “business as usual”
Revised estimate assumes unreported coal use of 100 MTCE and petroleum consumption of 15 MTCE in 2000
Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study (CCCS). 1999.
China Climate Change CountryStudy. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press.
China State Science and Technology Commission. 1999. Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS): China.
Chart1
ADB
ADB
ADB
ADB
567
740
907
1354
567
740
987
2045
567
740
1027
1636
567
740
915
1584
567
740
915
1695
567
740
950
1663
567
740
882
1370
567
740
724
1265
567
740
800
1449
Sheet1
1990
1995
2000
2020
ADB
567
740
907
1354
BAU means “business as usual”
Revised estimate assumes unreported coal use of 100 MTCE and petroleum consumption of 15 MTCE in 2000.
Revised energy consumption assumes that unreported coal and petroleum use of 100 MTCE and 15 MTCE, respectively, in 2000. Natural gas consumption in the revised case is projected to rise to 200 billion cubic meters in 2020, in line with new government for
Sheet1
1990
1995
2000
2020
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Coal-Fire Power generation is one main resource of CO2/SO2 emission
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Source: EU (2003)
Steven Zeng
Comparison of Carbon Intensity among China, Sweden and other Countries
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product, 1980-2001
(Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars using Market Exchange Rates)
Source: IEA,2002
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
France
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
Japan
0.3050453021
0.2899289717
0.280671646
0.267327444
0.2626005392
0.2521447818
0.2444502906
0.2444967072
0.2455314017
0.2408029759
0.2353407867
0.2068053994
0.2044083874
0.2028441003
0.1979708273
0.1950147573
0.1949683349
0.1890662036
0.1819574229
0.1768124709
0.1757495864
0.1731641928
2.4718356873
2.3464296154
2.2685942671
2.1721538392
2.0038743578
1.9089318423
1.8529642406
1.7728140398
1.7008419051
1.6544969195
1.5866537262
1.4878082317
1.3469543716
1.2649737332
1.2113651531
1.1243236242
1.0460686426
0.9867245189
0.8941173268
0.8199681083
0.7490641615
0.7468986121
0.1279437676
0.1127105397
0.0965275821
0.0880315629
0.0809687709
0.0852133563
0.0824069086
0.0794292676
0.0762597752
0.068827179
0.0647373312
0.0626820215
0.0647568774
0.0670700264
0.0690493392
0.072835203
0.0732594039
0.0602603139
0.0633646102
0.0585288175
0.0525468292
0.0518478417
0.2217020761
0.2184964701
0.205398598
0.1985550238
0.1922502503
0.1914316758
0.1846917921
0.1796336546
0.1687277951
0.1695323466
0.1653819131
0.1621250047
0.1522210518
0.1495102286
0.1409190843
0.1344266182
0.1365914377
0.1270196055
0.1192176484
0.1173456802
0.1157993487
0.1156069544
0.1412317032
0.1266658164
0.1181601221
0.1116818584
0.1062606425
0.1042889731
0.0945527662
0.0908379348
0.0824842766
0.0855074076
0.0838926425
0.0721481335
0.0687286564
0.0666941405
0.0635794442
0.0647769913
0.0673698508
0.0647571182
0.0664157959
0.0641562755
0.0613812567
0.0596607746
0.1303576183
0.1245835504
0.1131070422
0.1061642358
0.1101848615
0.1040819405
0.0969792943
0.0942089079
0.094990251
0.0935681076
0.0907109325
0.0547148661
0.0556915296
0.0548784764
0.0573075635
0.0562555431
0.0563420634
0.055354555
0.0544390241
0.0547761743
0.054996166
0.0558846332
Sheet1
Table H1g World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product, 1980-2001
Country
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
France
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
Japan
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
(Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars using Market Exchange Rates)
Sheet1
Sheet2
Sheet3
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Small Coal Fire Boiler has great potential of low-cost option on EE
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
CO2 reduction: an example of retrofit of industrial coal fired boiler by efficinecy improvement and/or co-firing with biomass
China total coal comsuption 1.206 GT/yr (2000), 40% for industrial boilers/furnaces:
industrial boilers: 500,000; industrial furnaces: 160,000
average size: 1.5 MWth, efficiency about 60%
imprvement of efficiency 60% to 70% (cheap retrofit, 1-5 USD/tCO2) reduce 94 Mt CO2 /yr (total Swedish emision is about 55 MtCO2/yr)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Efficiency of Motors and Pumps can be improved significantly
There are about 40 million industrial pumps and fans, with total capacity of approximately 85 GW.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Paper and Pulp Industry can learn a lot from Sweden
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Financial Internal Rates of Return for Selected Energy Efficiency Investments in China
“China, Issues and options in Greenhouse gas Emissions Control”, World Bank, December 1994
Steel Conversion of open hearth furnace to basic oxygen furnace Adoption of continuous casting Reheating furnace renovation Blast furnace gas recovery
16 19 36 41
20 71
29
Cement Medium-sized kiln renovation Conversion from wet to dry process Small-scale kiln renovation
15 19 35
25 25
Textiles Cogeneration in printing and dyeing Caustic soda recovery Computerized energy management
38 58 >100
Steven Zeng
Electric Power Sector and
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Targeted sectors
Power Generation
Iron & Steel
Paper & Pulp
Steven Zeng
Estimate CO2 reduction of model plant
Estimate CO2 reduction potential in China
Calculate CO2 reduction costs
corresponding to various cost
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Keio & Tsinghua U.
Collection of basic data of all power plants in North China (power plants in North China)
Classification of power plants
Group 1 50 MW units replace outdated ones with advanced technology
Group 2 100200 MW units Modification
Group 3 300 MW units Fuel switching
The above 3 groups account for 75% of total capacity in North China
Selection of model units/technologies, collection of detailed data, thereafter implementation of site survey
Price of fuel (gas price is about 8 times higher than coal, which is 237RMB/tonne
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Estimate CO2 emission reductions of model units by applying state-of-the-art technologies
Apply model units’ reduction to all others units
50MW100MW200MW
Steven Zeng
Coke Dry quenching (CDQ)
Plant capacity bigger than 1 Mt of Pig Iron, but excludes plants already installed them
Top Pressure Recovery Turbine (TRT)
Blast furnaces exceeding 1000 M3, but excludes plants already installed them
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
-Replacement of wet-process kiln with suspension preheater
-Waste heat power generation
-Utilization of steel slag for cement material
Oil refinery and chemical industry state-of-the-art technology
-Oil refinery (Gasification of oil residue and power generation)
-Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for
cracking furnace)
membrane process
-Replacement of main motors/main auxiliary motors with variable speed motors
-Installation of closed type dryer hood and waste heat recovery equipment for dryer
and other remodeling
Steven Zeng
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by industry
Paper industry Reduction potential is 3941172 thousand ton-CO2. 783 thousand ton-CO2 showed above is average.
27879
5744
783
13275
8625
45550
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Steven Zeng
Reduction Potential (thousand ton-CO2/year)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
--- (Numerator means saved fuel)
=
SBi: revenue, EBi: fuel cost, MBi: maintenance cost of Baseline case
SCi: revenue, ECi: fuel cost , MCi: maintenance cost of CDM case
I0: initial investment cost of the project
(Carbon reduction cost per ton)
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
Power Plant
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
50 MW Scrap & Build
Steven Zeng
Iron & Steel
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
CDQ
4,764
1.6
-15.3
TRT
980
0.5
-15.6
Total
5,744
Steven Zeng
Paper & Pulp
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
Replacement of main motors etc.
394 - 1,172
Steven Zeng
Cement
Cost, $/t - CO2 14 year crediting period
Replace of small vertical kiln with fluidized bed kiln
4,807
45.0
21.4
357
55.9
26.2
4,260
25.0
10.2
1,959
-2.9
-3.1
Steven Zeng
Oil refinery, Chemicals
Cost, $/t 7 year crediting period
Cost, $/t 14 year crediting period
Oil refinery (Gasification of oil residue and power generation)
6,707
-20.4
-23.3
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
938
-19.8
-33.5
729
-4.7
-5.8
251
24.7
7.5
Steven Zeng
Steven Zeng
Reduction Potential
21.1
Graph1
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Waste heat power generation
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
$0
$4.5
$9
$18
Replace of small vertical kiln
4807
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
357
4260
1959
8625
Residue gasification at oil refineries
6707
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
938
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
729
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
251
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by industry
Paper industry Reduction potential is 40117 thousand ton-CO2. 783 thousand ton-CO2 showed above is average.
YReduction Potential (thousand ton-CO2/year)
Comparison of CDM reduction potential by technology
industry,technical
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Replace of small vertical kiln
4807
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
357
4260
1959
8625
8625
Oil Refinary
6707
Ethylene (Gas turbine installation and utilization of exhaust gas for cracking furnace)
Ethylene
938
Chemical fertilizer
Clor-alkali
251
$0
$4.5
$9
$18
4807
4807
357
357
4260
4260
1959
1959
6707
6707
938
938
729
729
251
251
300MW
Cement Industry
Steel Industry
Power Plant
Steel Industry
Power Plant
Steven Zeng
Tentative Conclusion
Potential CO2 emission reduction in five major sectors is around 100 Mt (Physical potential)
Among them, power generation sector is the largest (especially at 300 MW units)
When considering cost, picture changes drastically
Very few commercially viable projects exist (at zero cost, total reduction will be only 10 Mt, at $4.5, still 16 Mt even under our baseline emission figures)
Fuel switching projects in power sector will not be feasible due to high cost of natural gas
Public funding is essential for promotion of CDM projects in China
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
China represents a large GHG reduction potential at various costs
High growth rate of China makes clean technology transfer financially and technically viable, CDM will enhance this process
Clean Technology Transfer through CDM is a win-win solution for both Sweden and China, with CDM, Sweden is able to transfer its advanced energy efficiency and renewable energy technology to China, e.g. biomass energy, cogeneration etc.
Opportunities shall be provided for Swedish industry to understand Chinese energy market and promote the potential cooperation between two countries.
PhD course 031112, Jan 28 2004
Steven Zeng
of fossil fuels(1980-2001)
China(MTC)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
ADB
World
Bank
UNEP
CCCS
ALGAS
Average-
BAU
Average-
Policy
Reported
Trends
Revised
Estimate
Replace of wet-process kiln with SP
Waste heat power generation
Utilize of steel slag for cement material
Residue gasification at oil refineries
Utilize of exhaust gas at ethylene plants
IGCC at chemical fertilizer plants
Ion-exchange membrane process at soda plants
(
)
projects 2INCaFNCDF
13.89
19.93
29.16
4.55
73.2
3.5
2.8
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