PewInternet.org The Changing Digital Landscape Three revolutions … and the three upheavals yet to come Meeting of Center for Digital Information October.

PewInternet.org

The Changing Digital LandscapeThree revolutions … and the three upheavals yet to come

Meeting of Center for Digital InformationOctober 22, 2010Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet Project

October 22, 2010 2

Apology

Revolution 1Internet and broadband

October 22, 2010 5

Apology

Revolution 2Wireless connectivity

Cell phone owners – 85%

Mobile internet connectors – 57%

New cell and wireless realities• More than 2/3 of adults and 3/4 of teens use the cloud• Web vs. apps struggle: 35% have apps; 24% use apps• Features used by cell owners

– 76% take pictures– 74% are texters (text overtakes talk in frequency in 2009)– 39% browse internet– 34% are email users– 34% record videos– 34% play games– 33% play music– 30% are IM-ers– 7% participate in video calls

October 22, 2010 9

Apology

Revolution 3Social networking

Upheaval – 1Gadgets and interfaces

Changes underwayVoice, translation, natural language search, projectors,

screens, wearable devices make information ….

Pew Internet danah boyd– pervasive - persistent– portable - replicable– personal - scalable– participatory - searchable

COLLAPSED CONTEXTS

October 22, 2010 13July 9, 2010 13

Are hot future gadgets evident now?

Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators.

81% experts

The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise.

16% experts

Upheaval – 2The metaverse

The virtual world merges with real world

• Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people– Augmented reality– Mirror worlds– Life logging – Virtual worlds

Upheaval – 3The exaflood

We enter the age of “big data” and “the internet of things”

• Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (1018 )– 2002: 5 exabytes of info on entire internet– 2010: 21 exabytes pass on internet per month

Implications• Constant connectivity changes social patterns and info

flows: need for real-time info/analytics• Niches proliferate• Media power balances shift and boundaries blur

– Old media vs. new media– Producers vs. consumers– New intermediaries

• Influence shifts to social networks– Attention to info– Evaluation of info– Action on info, including creation

Choices organizations face

• Soul strategy – commodity vs. franchise• Networking strategy – identifying influencers,

natural alliances, availability AAA• Engagement strategy – VOG vs. VOBW• Learning and innovation strategy

The end

• What kind of internet we have – Architecture - “do-over” internet– Security, mobility, instrumentation, protocols

• What kind of information policies we have– property in the digital age– cultural concerns and national policies

• What kinds of policies and norms we have about privacy and identity

Critical uncertainties

October 22, 2010 21