Peter C. Doherty, Dept of Microbiology and Immunology University of Melbourne, and St Jude Children ’ s Research Hospital, Memphis TN. Climate Change/Cultural.

Peter C. Doherty, Peter C. Doherty, Dept of Microbiology and Immunology Dept of Microbiology and Immunology University of Melbourne, and St Jude ChildrenUniversity of Melbourne, and St Jude Children’’s Research Hospital, Memphis TN.s Research Hospital, Memphis TN.

Climate Change/Cultural Change: The Challenge for the Future

• Negative sense RNA virus• No proof-reading during

replication• Segmented genomes• Highly variable• 16 HA and 9 NA subtypes

Influenza VirusInfluenza VirusInfluenza VirusInfluenza Virus

N, NA the neuraminidase that gets the virus away from the cell

H, HA the hemagglutinin molecule that gets the virus into the cell

HA

Influenza A viruses are natural infections of aquatic birds

Rapid spread of a “seasonal”Influenza A virus

Nov 8th, 2003Nov 8th, 2003

Dec 20th, 2003

The CD8+ “killer” T lymphocytes recirculateconstantly from blood, to tissue to lymph.

Immunity, from the latin “Immunis” (without tax): theImmune system has evolved to deal with the “tax” of infection

The ultimate assassins, they kill silently by inducing apoptotic cell death. This involves disabling mitochondrial function to minimize pro-inflammatory “danger signals” eg ATP release

Movies by Misty Jenkins and Nigel WaterhouseJenkins et al Cell Death &Different 2009 E-pub, ahead of print

A biologist’s view: the Unholy Trinity Unrestricted human population growth

Environmental degradation and species loss

Anthropogenic climate change

We cannot discuss climate change mitigation withoutconsidering human numbers, culture, values and practices.

Balloon. A balloon is a Glasgow term for someone who is full of hot air and whose opinions, although loudly and frequently expressed areregarded as worthless. From: SCOTS Dictionary 2007Publisher: SCOTLANDonSUNDAY

Looking seriously at Climatechange is a challenge for a research biologist like me.The “hard data”that informs our thinking comes essentiallyfrom the mathematical and physical sciences

Climate Science is complex and evolving

Where do we get our information?

National Academies of Sciencehttp://royalsociety.org/landing.asp?id=1278http://dels.nas.edu/climatechange/http://www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange

Books written for general reading

News and Views and Perspectives in Journals like Science and Nature

Government web sitesNOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo

Scepticism and Denial in Science

Denial in the face of evidence…”this parrot is dead!”

Scepticism is central tothe health of science

Denial is something else

Both the data and the modelsare freely available for any“climate science sceptic” tore-analyse

A proper scepticismIt’s easy to be sceptical about your own area ofexpertise…just repeat, or do an alternativeexperiment….or re-analyze the data

It’s more difficult when the area of science is very different. We can only question….

Did the investigators obey the rules of evidence?That should be the case if they’re publishing intop, carefully peer-reviewed journals

Are the conclusions supported by other, differenttypes of science?

Ian Plimer describes the geological evidence for natural climate change.

He convinced me beyond any shadow of doubt that we should:1. Do everything possible now to stabilize and, if possible reduce, human numbers.2. Leave the energy reserve of fossil fuels in the ground for future emergency use

With more than 2,000 references in H+A,no sources are provided for any of thenumerous data figures. Many are evidently of dubious provenance.

Denial is an inevitable consequence of any science with profound implications threatening established financial, business, religious and social interests.

Denial can come from the political left or right.

Denial that serves powerful interests often brings marginal “experts” into considerable prominence.

In the face of rapid scientific advance, those with amore traditional understanding may feel under-valued and become very angry.

As a general rule, ignore “experts” who aren’t engaging with the currently active research community.

Crimes against humanity

HOLOCAUST DENIAL

HIV/AIDS denial

Preventive medicine denial: AIDS/condom denial..childhood vaccination denial

Anthropogenic climate change denial

Which one of these will look to be the worst betrayal of life and humanity from the perspectiveof someone born in the year 2300? Which will beseen as the greatest crime?

The increase in computing power, together with advances in hardware and software is transforming all areas of science

In biology, we are living through the rise and rise of the “omics”….Genomics, Lipidomics,Glycomics, Proteomics, Metabolomics, PhenomicsTranscriptomics……SYSTEMS BIOLOGY

Though “historical knowledge” remains important,anyone who isn’t currently active in science rapidlyloses touch. Don’t listen to angry, retired old guys!

Science in general is being revolutionized by rapid advances in technology

In biomedical research, when we want to test an idea or analyze the consequences of someparticular treatment, we just do an experiment

If we’re using say, lab animals or humans, ourbasic strategies must first be approvedby Institutional Ethics/Experimentation Committees.Our use of reagents is monitored by InstitutionalSafety Committees.

UNACCEPTABLE EXPERIMENT 1

Let’s see what happens to 6.8billion human beings and otherlarge, complex life forms if we just keep increasing levels ofatmospheric CO2, N2O and CH4?

This experiment would never beapproved by any UniversityHuman Subjects or EthicsCommittee

Thinking like an experimentalist

UNACCEPTABLE EXPERIMENT 2

Let’s see what happens ifwe let loose rat breedingpairs on a small islandwith no predators, thenrun the experiment throughto see if their numbers arecontrolled by starvation,

killing each other, or by some mutant bug?

This experiment would never be approved by aUniversity Animal Ethics Committee.

UNACCEPTABLE EXPERIMENT 3

Let’s concrete over as much arable land as possible,then further restrict humanfood supplies by turningedible grains into ethanolto power cars etc and see whether people start to starve.

Such activities are not subject to any form ofethical review and are, in fact, promoted by governments in the name of ‘growth’ and ‘development’

Climate science is an observational,not an experimental science

Like any science, it isonly as good as the basicconceptual frameworks and the available measurementand analytical systems

Australia is no 14

CO2 CH4

N2O

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/seaice.html

Hear David Karoly, Ross Garnaut and Jim Falk speak from 10-12 AM tomorrow

We’ll hear about someof the real science, andabout mitigationstrategies, tomorrow

Measurement and analytical systems haveimproved dramatically over the past decade

Massive improvements in computing power and mechanisms for dataexchange

New satellites that measure the depthas well as the circumference of icesheets

Networks of floating “diver’ buoys that measure ocean temperatures etc at varying depths.

The “experimental” component in climate science isbased in computer modeling approaches

Any model can only be as good as the basic design and the utility of the model will dependinevitably on the quality and quantity of the input data

The IPCC Working Group onComplex Modeling lists some 25 different models for 17 Centers.

The models are run with and

without different inputs, such as the contribution ofvolcanic activity and/or greenhouse gases

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a function of the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorology Organization (WMO)

The function of this unprecedented (in any science) international co-operative is to provide information to governments

and policy makers.

It involves a broad spectrum of scientists from some 50 countries and works only from published,peer reviewed research data

The IPCC: when you look at the IPCC SynthesisReport, the document intended for policy makers,It is important to recognize that the wording is scrutinized by the representatives of individualGovernments. As a consequence, it is very conservatively written.

Considerable effort is made to identify areaswhere current understanding is incomplete.

Otherwise the reports are dealing with publishedevidence, so they basically go where the sciencetakes them

The 2007 Fourth The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Assessment Report can be downloadedcan be downloaded from from www.ipcc.ch

I am personally ofI am personally ofthe opinion that mostthe opinion that mostwho are highlywho are highlycritical of this critical of this report have neverreport have nevertaken the trouble totaken the trouble toread it read it

SOLUTIONS

SECURITY

SOCIETY

SUSTAINABILITY

SOLUTIONS: it’s all about energy. Renewables

Nuclear Fusion: the Holy Grail

Solar Furnace

Geothermal

Tides and Waves

In the short term: reducing the C load

In ground carbon capture and storage:Is it safe? What about regions remote from appropriate geological formations

Bioreactors: C capture with algae…could potentially be used anywhere, needs water butcould be salt water

Some very simple things that we’re not doing, for example: annual exhaust emission checks on all cars and trucks….it’s even done in Memphis TN

CO2 carbon dioxideCH4 methane C3H8 propaneC4H10 butaneC2H6 ethaneC2H6O ethanolC3OH methanol

Number of C atoms: petrol, 7-9; kerosene (jet A, planes) 11-18; diesel oil 11-18; fuel oil (ships) 20-27; paraffin wax(candles) 25-30. Refinery gas (bottled gas) is mostly propane and butane

If you’re young and passionateabout the climate change issue,then try to get a good groundingin the relevant science.

In the short term: burning cleaner fuels

We need to do a much better job of informing the public at large, and itdoesn’t help if statements are “overthe top”

Methane CH4 is a bad greenhouse gas, but a much cleaner fuel than gasoline or coal

In the short term

Harvesting CH4 fromlandfills and sewage works

Maybe we won’t go back togas-producers on cars, but Delhihas been cleaning up its air pollution problem by going to CNGfor buses and trucks

SOLUTIONS: this isn’t a “left vs right” issue

While dealing with climate change requires thatbusiness be given proper regulatory “settings”,for eg carbon taxes, emissions trading, real solutions will come from innovative entrepreneursnot managerial bureaucrats. The greenhouse gasrecord of old “socialist” economies is appalling!

The tension isn’t between capitalism and socialism.

The conflict is between powerful, old non-innovative companies and new, science based industrial development

SECURITY and mitigationFood security: go to the discussion by Snow Barlow,Janet McCalman and Tim Reeeves Tuesday 1:30-3:00

Health and water security: Heat stress: Insect-borne diseases (like malaria) on the mover Water-born disease is a major problem with flooding. Loss of “fossil” water as the glaciers melt Some aspects will beDiscussed by Rob Moodie, Roger Short and SanaNakata, Tuesday 3:30-5:00

Territorial security: What happens when the first bigships full of refugees hit our shores? Wars over scarceresources.

SUSTAINABILITY: the ethics of sustainabilityThere is a clear ethical and moral question here:

What do we owe to future generations? Human beings have not been forced to think seriouslyabout this issue before. Now we must

While we may find it easy to think in terms ofhelping and protecting the interests of our childrenand grand-children, what about those who come later? Do we have the right to consume all the oil,coal and fuel reserves? Surely we must doeverything possible to recycle metals and preservebiodiversity, arable land and water supplies

Where is the creative literature of climate change?Come on Saturday from 10-12

Poetry..”a sunburnt country…..of drought and flooding rains”……will Chris Wallace Crabbe, LisaGorton, JudithBeveridge and Peter Minter tell us?

Could think of “The Grapes of Wrath” as a novelof climate change…..Is that what Cormac McCarthy is writing about in “The Road”….hope we don’t get as “end stage” as that. Hear Steven Carroll, Kate Grenville, Sonya Hartnett and Shane Maloney

Perhaps the issue lends itself more to visual art forms

The Importance Of Ideas And Open Institutions

We must be courageous and imaginative as weadvance ideas from all areas of human creativity

Universities are particularly important as theybring together a great variety of disciplines fromgeophysics, to history, to oceanography, to literature, to architecture, to economics, to anthropology, to foreign relations, to law, etc

Is it time to start a Virtual Institute for CombatingDangerous Climate Change at the University of Melbourne?

Australia has a particular part to play. We owe the

world for the support we gave to the Bush denialists

With only 21 million people,a land mass equal to the continental USA and massiverenewable energy potential,we could act as a global laboratory for seeking and implementing solutions to theenergy problem

If we can solve the cheap renewable energy equation, the economic advantages to us would be extraordinary

Harland and Wolff built the Titanic. They no longer build ships, but Belfast survives

We can avoid taking theusual conservative position,

cancel our tickets on the Titanic, and seize the opportunities that arise from having to deal withanthropogenic climate change

With change comes opportunity

But what about protectingMiss Piggy?

We’ve been focusing on stopping bird flu from reaching Paris?

Some of us should get back to our daytime jobs