Personal Lines P-C Insurance Markets: Trends, Challenges & Opportunities for 2012 & Beyond Insurance Information Institute January 31, 2012 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected]
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Personal Lines P-C Insurance Markets:
Trends, Challenges & Opportunities for 2012 & Beyond
Insurance Information InstituteJanuary 31, 2012
Download at www.iii.org/presentationsRobert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist
Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
2
Presentation Outline
Personal Lines Growth Overview Auto, Home: US and by State Average Premium/Expenditures
Personal Lines Growth Drivers Exposure, Pricing Factors
Personal Lines Profitability Analysis Catastrophe Loss Trends: US & Global Impacts Reinsurance Market Overview & Outlook Cyclical Drivers in Personal Lines
Loss as a Cyclical Driver Private Passenger Auto Performance Distribution Trends P/C Financial Overview & Outlook: The Role of Cyclicality
Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
$ Billions
Homeowners insurance NWP continues to rise (up 86.5% 2000-2010) despite very
little unit growth in recent years. Reasons include rate increases, especially in
coastal zones, ITV endorsements (e.g., “inflation guards”), and inelastic demand
11
Average Premiums For Home InsuranceBy State, 2009* (1)
$1
,51
1
$1
,46
0
$1
,43
0
$1
,18
5
$1
,12
3
$1
,06
9
$1
,06
9
$1
,03
5
$1
,02
1
$1
,01
6
$9
91
$9
87
$9
70
$9
22
$9
19
$9
19
$8
93
$8
92
$8
81
$8
80
$8
79
$8
53
$8
49
$8
48
$7
94
$7
89
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
TX
(2)
FL
(3) LA
MS
OK
DE RI
MA
NY
CT
KS AL
SC
CA
(4)
AR
MN
CO AK
MO
US HI
ND
NE
NJ
TN IL
*Latest available.
(1) Based on the HO-3 homeowner package policy for owner-occupied dwellings, 1 to 4 family units. Provides “all risks” coverage (except those specifically excluded in the policy) on buildings and broad named-peril coverage on personal property, and is the most common package written.
Note: Average premium=Premiums/exposure per house years. A house year is equal to 365 days insured coverage for a single dwelling.
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
Top 25 States
12
Average Premiums For Home InsuranceBy State, 2009* (1)
$7
87
$7
79
$7
57
$7
51
$7
51
$7
40
$7
34
$7
27
$7
25
$7
17
$7
17
$7
11
$7
03
$6
94
$6
71
$6
51
$6
45
$6
45
$6
42
$6
13
$6
10
$5
52
$5
44
$5
44
$5
42
$4
85
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
GA
MD
NH
MT
NM M
I
VA
WY
NC IN VT
KY
NV
PA
WV
ME IA SD AZ
OH
DC
WA
OR
UT WI
ID
(1) Based on the HO-3 homeowner package policy for owner-occupied dwellings, 1 to 4 family units. Provides “all risks” coverage (except those specifically excluded in the policy) on buildings and broad named-peril coverage on personal property, and is the most common package written.
Note: Average premium=Premiums/exposure per house years. A house year is equal to 365 days insured coverage for a single dwelling.
TX FL MS LA OK AR AL SC KS NM MO TN DC NY RI NE CA US GA KY WV MT MN NC ND
*Average homeowners insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of fourSources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Top 25 States(Percent)
Ratio of Avg. Premium for Homeowners Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009
14
1.08
%1.
05%
1.05
%1.
05%
1.03
%1.
03%
1.01
%1.
00%
0.99
%0.
97%
0.97
%0.
97%
0.96
%0.
93%
0.88
%0.
87%
0.86
%0.
86%
0.86
%0.
86%
0.85
%0.
80%
0.79
%0.
77%
0.76
%0.
71%
0.68
%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%C
O AK IN MI
HI
MA
NV
CT IL AZ
WY
ME
SD VT
PA IA DE
OH VA
NH NJ ID UT
MD
OR W
I
WA
*Average homeowners insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of fourSources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
(Percent) Bottom 25 States
Ratio of Avg. Premium for Homeowners Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009
15
Personal Lines Growth Drivers
Rate is Presently a Bigger Driver than Exposure
16
Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2011*
*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through December 2011; seasonally adjustedNote: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, January 2005 - December 2011
(Percent Changefrom same month,prior year)
* Percentage change from same month in prior year, seasonally adjusted.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute
3.4
%3
.3%
3.0
%2
.9%
2.4
%2
.2%
2.0
%1
.9%
1.3
%0
.6% 0.9
%0
.5%
0.2
%0
.4%
0.4
%0
.5%
0.3
%0
.2%
0.2
%1
.0%
1.6
%1
.1%
0.8
%0
.7%
0.8
%0
.6%
0.4
%-0
.2%
0.3
% 0.6
%0
.6%
0.4
%0
.1%
0.2
% 0.5
% 0.9
%1
.1% 1.4
% 1.7
%2
.6%
2.6
%2
.7% 3.0
%3
.1% 3.4
% 3.8
%4
.0%
4.0
% 4.3
%4
.4%
4.6
%4
.6%
4.7
%4
.6%
4.6
%4
.6%
4.6
%4
.6%
4.7
%4
.7%
4.9
% 5.3
%5
.3%
5.3
%5
.1% 5.3
%5
.1%
5.1
% 5.4
%5
.3%
5.3
%4
.5%
4.2
%4
.0%
3.8
%3
.8%
3.7
%3
.3%
3.4
%3
.3%
2.9
%3
.0% 3
.4%
0.9
%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan 0
5F
eb 0
5M
ar
05
Apr
05
May 0
5Jun 0
5Jul 0
5A
ug 0
5S
ep 0
5O
ct 05
Nov 0
5D
ec 0
5Jan 0
6F
eb 0
6M
ar
06
Apr
06
May 0
6Jun 0
6Jul 0
6A
ug 0
6S
ep 0
6O
ct 06
Nov 0
6D
ec 0
6Jan 0
7F
eb 0
7M
ar
07
Apr
07
May 0
7Jun 0
7Jul 0
7A
ug 0
7S
ep 0
7O
ct 07
Nov 0
7D
ec 0
7Jan 0
8F
eb 0
8M
ar
08
Apr
08
May 0
8Jun 08
Jul 0
8A
ug 0
8S
ep 0
8O
ct 08
Nov 0
8D
ec 0
8Jan 0
9F
eb 0
9M
ar
09
Apr
09
May 0
9Jun 0
9Jul 0
9A
ug 0
9S
ep 0
9O
ct 09
Nov 0
9D
ec 0
9Jan 1
0F
eb 1
0M
ar
10
Apr
10
May 1
0Jun 1
0Jul 1
0A
ug 1
0S
ep 1
0O
ct 10
Nov 1
0D
ec 1
0Jan 1
1F
eb 1
1M
ar
11
Apr
11
May 1
1Jun 1
1Jul 1
1A
ug 1
1S
ep 1
1O
ct 11
Nov 1
1D
ec 1
1
Auto Insurance Price Increases Have Averaged 5.1% in 2010 over 2009, After
Averaging 4.5% in 2009 over 2008.
Underwriting performance remained
strong even when prices were flat or
falling due to improvements in
underlying frequency and severity trends
PPA Auto, like most p/c lines, exhibits strong cyclicality in pricing. Prices rose from 2000 to late 2005, were flat/falling in 2006 and 2007 before beginning to
LA DC FL WV NV NM MS TX MI NY AZ AR DE SC KY RI GA NJ OK AK US UT AL PA TN
*Average auto insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of fourSources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Ratio of Avg. Expenditure for Pvt. Passenger Auto Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009
Top 25 States(Percent)
22
1.02
%
1.01
%0.
98%
0.97
%0.
97%
0.94
%0.
92%
0.92
%0.
92%
0.91
%0.
91%
0.91
%0.
90%
0.89
%0.
86%
0.86
%0.
85%
0.84
%0.
83%
0.83
%0.
81%
0.80
%0.
78%
0.78
%0.
78%
0.72
%0.
65%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
WA
OR
MT
MO CA
CT HI
ID NC
MD IL IN CO
ME
OH
MA
KS
VT
WY
MN
NH
NE VA
SD WI
IA
ND
*Average auto insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of fourSources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
(Percent) Bottom 25 States
Ratio of Avg. Expenditure for Pvt. Passenger Auto Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 1/12); Insurance Information Institute.
Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector.
New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for 2012-13 is
still far below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units, but a recovery is underway.
Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in
2012 and beyond
24
Number of Insured Vehicles in the US, 2000-2009*
15
9.9 16
4.6 16
8.8 17
3.1
17
5.9 18
0.6
18
1.6 18
5.6
18
7.1
18
6.8
133
143
153
163
173
183
193
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(mill
ion
s)
*Latest available as of Nov. 2011.
Source: Automobile Insurance Plans Service Office.
The Number of Insured Passenger Vehicles Stopped Growing During the Economic Downturn. Growth Has Likely Returned.
Do Changes in Miles Driven AffectAuto Collision Claim Frequency?
7.00
6.81
6.59
6.80 6.78
6.91
6.65
6.32
6.025.94
5.71
5.85
5.705.62 5.60 5.62
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
Pa
id C
laim
Fre
q
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
Bil
lio
ns
of
Mil
es D
rive
n
Collision Claim FrequencyBillions of Vehicle Miles
Sources: Federal Highway Administration (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtpage.cfm; ISO Fast Track Monitoring System, Private Passenger Automobile Fast Track Data: 2nd Qtr. 2011, published Sep. 30, 2011 and earlier reports. *2011 ISO figure is for 12 months ending 6/30/2011; FHA data is for 12 months ending Sep. 2011.
Paid Claim Frequency = (No. of paid claims)/(Earned Car Years) x 100
*2011 figure is weighted average square feet of completed homes in first three quarters of 2011Source: U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/const/www/quarterly_starts_completions.pdf; Insurance Information Institute.
Square Ft
The trend toward building larger homes reversed from2008 - 2010, affecting exposure growth beyond the decline in number of units built.
Rising again in 2011.
The average size of completed new homes often falls in recessions (yellow bars), but historically bounces back in expansions
29
The average size of completed new homes fell by 147 square feet (5.75%) from 2008-2010. This was the largest recession-based drop in nearly four decades.
* Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts **Excludes state-run insurers.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute estimates 2010-2012 based on CPI and other data.
$508$536
$593
$668
$822 $830
$880$914
$956
$1,004
$804$764
$729
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10* 11* 12*
Home insurance premiums are rising in response to higher
catastrophe losses
35
51.5
46.7
36.8
36.4
36.4
35.5
35.3
35.1
33.4
32.2
32.1
32.1
32.0
31.5
31.2
29.9
29.6
29.6
29.2
28.8
28.8
28.6
28.2
27.2
26.7
05
1015202530354045505560
HI
LA ID
MO DE
AR
NM SC
MS
NC RI
UT
GA AL
WY
ND
TN KY
CT
OK
MN
MT
ME
NH
NY
Pec
ent c
hang
e (%
)
Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute.
Hawaii was the fastest growing state between
2005 and 2010
Percent Change in DPW: Homeowners, by State, 2005-2010
Top 25 States
36
26.1
25.6
25.0
24.5
24.3
24.0
23.9
23.6
23.2
22.4
22.4
22.2
22.1
21.1
20.8
20.3
19.2
18.9
18.1
16.2
14.2
12.2
9.6
8.4
7.0
0.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
NJ
KS VA
MA
WA FL TX IL WI IA
OR
SD
CO IN NE
OH VT
AK
DC PA
MD
WV AZ
NV
CA MI
Pec
ent c
hang
e (%
)
Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute.
Michigan was the slowest growing state
between 2005 and 2010
Percent Change in DPW: Homeowners, by State, 2005-2010
Bottom 25 States
37
U.S. Residual Market Exposure to Loss($ Billions)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.).
Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011**
(Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Average of range estimates of $35B - $40B as of 1/4/12; Privately insured losses only.**Figures do not include federally insured flood losses.Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research.
$10.0$11.9 $13.0$13.1
$19.1$21.3
$24.0$25.0
$37.5
$47.6
$7.7 $8.1 $8.3 $8.5 $9.3 $9.7
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
Hugo (1989)
WinterStormDaria(1991)
ChileQuake(2010)
Ivan (2004)
TyphoonMirielle(1991)
Charley(2004)
ThailandFloods(2011)
Wilma(2005)
NewZealandQuake(2011)
Ike (2008)
Northridge(1994)
SpringTornadoes/
Storms(2011)
WTC TerrorAttack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
JapanQuake,
Tsunami(2011)*
Katrina(2005)
Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and
thunderstorm season would likely become the 5th
costliest event in global insurance history
5 of the top 14 most expensive
catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 2 years
59
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update
2011 Was One of the Most Expensive Years on Record
60
Top 14 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Losses will actually be broken down into several “events” as determined by PCS. Includes losses for the period April 1 – June 30.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.
$9.0$11.9 $13.1
$19.1$21.3
$24.0 $25.0
$47.6
$8.5$7.7$6.5$5.5$4.4$4.3
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
Irene(2011)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo (1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike (2008)
Northridge(1994)
SpringTornadoes& Storms*
(2011)
9/11Attack(2001)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and storm season are
is the 4th costliest event in US insurance history
*PCS estimate through Sept. 30, 2011.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
US CAT Losses in 2011 Were the 5th Highest in US History on An Inflation Adjusted Basis
**Includes $700 million in flood losses insured through the National Flood Insurance Program.Source: PCS except as noted by “*” which are sourced to Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute.
2011’s Most Expensive Catastrophes, Insured Losses
Includes $1.65B in AL, mostly in the Tuscaloosa
and Birmingham
areas
Includes approximately $2B in losses
for May 22 Joplin tornado
67
Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2011*
*Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2010 and 2011 based on A.M. Best data.Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers.Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
0.4
1.2
0.4 0.
8 1.3
0.3 0.4 0.
71.
51.
00.
40.
4 0.7
1.8
1.1
0.6
1.4 2.
01.
3 2.0
0.5
0.5 0.7
3.0
1.2
2.1
8.8
2.3
5.9
3.3
2.8
1.0
3.6
2.9
1.6
5.4
1.6
3.3
3.3
8.1
2.7
1.6
5.0
2.6
4.4
9.0
3.6
0.9
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades
unusual with tornado and thunderstorm accounting for the
vast majority of loss
Thunderstorm/ Tornado losses were 2.5 times above the 30-year average
74
2011: Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
Most of the Country East of the Rockies Suffered Severe Weather in 2011, Impacting
Most Insurers
Number of Federal Disaster Declarations, 1953-2011*
13 1
7 18
16
16
7 71
21
22
22
0 25
25
11
11
19
29
17
17
48
46
46
38
30
22 25
42
23
15
24
21
34
27 28
23
11
31
38
45
32 3
63
27
54
46
55
04
54
5 49
56
69
48 5
26
37
55
98
19
9
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
*
*Through December 31, 2011.Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema ; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set a New Record in 2011
The number of federal disaster declarations set a
new record in 2011, with 99, shattering 2010’s record 81
Private Passenger Auto Accounts for 34% of Industry Premiums and Remains the Profit Juggernaut of the P/C Insurance Industry
Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2010); Insurance Information Institute (2011P/12F).
95
Cycle Drivers
The Role of Losses and Reserves in the Underwriting Cycle
96
PP Auto Liability: Loss and LAE vs. Net Premiums Written, 1990-2010
70
75
80
85
90
95
1009
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Lo
ss
+ L
AE
Ra
tio
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Ch
an
ge
in N
PW
Loss & LAE Ratio NPW Growth
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Historically, losses drive
premium growth (which is
primarily driven by rate)
While Premium Growth Decelerated, the Driver Was Primarily Lower Losses, Allowing Auto Insurers to Maintain String Margins
102
REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS
Record Global Catastrophes Activity is
Pressuring Pricing
Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, November 23, 2011.
Historical Capital Levels of Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, 1998—2Q11
Most excess reinsurance capacity was
removed from the market in 2011,
leaving uncertainty as to the direction of
2012 reinsurance renewals
Source: Guy Carpenter, GC Capital Ideas.com, September 26, 2011.
Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index, 1990-2011 YTD (6/1/11)
A modest increase in global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing was
evident in June 1 renewals in the wake of record global catastrophe
losses. Larger increase could occur for the Jan.1, 2012 renewals
109
Claim Trends in Auto Insurance
Rising Costs Held in Check by Falling Frequency:
Can That Pattern Be Sustained?
110
Bodily Injury: Severity Trend Rising, Frequency Decline Has Ended
3.5%
-5.4%
-3.8% -4.0% -4.2%
-2.2%
0.0%
2.2%2.9%
4.7%5.7% 5.9%
2.1%3.2%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Severity Frequency
*For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
Annual Change, 2005 through 2011*
Cost Pressures Will Increase if BI Severity Frequency Increases Continue
111
Property Damage Liability: Severity is Up, Frequency Nearly Flat Since 2009
3.0%
-1.6%
-3.5%
0.9%
-3.4%
0.6%
-0.3%
-1.2%
2.9%3.6%
2.0% 2.0%
-0.3%
0.8%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2011*
Severity/Frequency Trends Were Stable Through 2010, But Rising Severity in 2011 Is a Concern
*For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
112
No-Fault (PIP) Liability: Frequency and Severity Trends Are Adverse*
3.7%
-4.8%-5.7%
-4.1%
-5.7%
5.3% 5.0%
-0.7%
4.7%
2.4%
6.4% 6.5% 6.2%5.4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Severity Frequency
*No-fault states included are: FL, HI, KS, KY, MA, MI, MN, NY, ND and UT; 2010 data are for the 4 quarters ending 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
Annual Change, 2005 through 2011*
Multiple States Are Experiencing Severe Fraud and Abuse Problems in their No-Fault Systems, Especially FL, MI, NY and NJ
113
Collision Coverage: Frequency and Severity Trends Are Up in 2011*
2.0%
-1.8%
-3.6%
2.5%
-2.4%-1.6%
-0.2%
0.4%
3.9%3.1%
0.1%0.5%
-2.3%
-0.1%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2011*
The Recession, High Fuel Prices Have Helped Temper Frequency and Severity, But this Trend Will Likely Be Reversed Based on
Evidence from Past Recoveries*For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
114
Comprehensive Coverage: Frequency and Severity Trend in 2011 is Unfavorable
18.3%
-3.1%
-9.8%
-6.3%
1.8% 1.8%
5.8% 6.1%
15.5%
-1.4% -1.5%
12.6%
-8.2%-6.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2011*
Weather Creates Volatility for Comprehensive Coverage; Recession Has Helped Push Down Frequency and Temper
Severity, But This Factors Will Weaken as Economy Recovers*For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
Severe weather is a principal cause of the
spike in both frequency and severity in 2011
115
Average No-Fault Claim Severity, 2011:Q3*
$1
7,6
64
$9
,10
8
$8
,01
9
$5
,04
2
$5
,16
0
$4
,19
4
$2
,91
9
$2
,22
1
$1
,86
8
$3
6,2
29
$7
,19
4
$5
,51
0
$4
,61
5$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
MI NJ FL NY MN KY DC HI ND PA KS UT MA
Several States Including NY Have Severe and Growing Problems With Rampant Fraud and Abuse in their No-Fault Systems. Claim Severities Are Up Sharply.
*Average of the four quarters ending 2011:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute.
MI, NJ, NY and FL currently are the largest states that have the most severe
problems in their no-fault system
NY has the 4th highest auto no-fault average claim cost (severity) in the US
116
Increase in No-Fault Claim Severity: Selected States, 2004-2011*
*2011 figures are for the 4 quarters ending 2011:Q3. Sources: Insurance Information Institute research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data.
$36,229
$17,664
$8,019 $9,108$7,194
$5,198$6,674$5,871
$12,136
$24,385
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Michigan New Jersey New York Florida Minnesota
2004 2011*
The no-fault systems in MI, NJ, NY, FL, and MN are under stress due to rising fraud and abuse, which leads to higher premiums for honest drivers.
*2011 estimate is based on data through Q2:2011.Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations and research from ISO/PCI and AIPSO data.
Unscrupulous Medical Providers and Attorneys Are Costing Honest Florida Drivers Hundreds of Millions of Dollars
The total fraud tax levied on Florida vehicle owners
is an estimated $658 million in 2011.
+107.6% +6.5%
118
New York State No-Fault Claim Frequency and Severity, 1997–2011:Q3
$5,6
75 $6,0
63$6
,699
$8,3
47$8
,327
$7,8
88$7
,507
$8,2
34$9
,235
$8,7
27$8
,577
$7,7
73$7
,311
$6,9
58$6
,870
$6,1
56$6
,052
$5,8
20$5
,991
$5,6
15$6
,094
$5,9
14 $6,2
50$6
,269 $6
,530
$6,6
06$7
,063 $7
,323
$7,3
78$7
,297 $7
,670
$7,7
40$8
,443
$8,1
77 $8,5
07$8
,025
$8,5
63$8
,726
$8,6
46$8
,830
$8,6
46 $8,9
90$8
,647
$8,4
07
$8,2
85$8
,062
$7,3
94
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
1997
1998
1999
2000
1:01
1:02
1:03
1:04
2:01
2:02
2:03
2:04
3:01
3:02
3:03
3:04
4:01
4:02
4:03
4:04
5:01
5:02
5:03
5:04
6:01
6:02
6:03
6:04
7:01
7:02
7:03
7:04
8:01
8:02
8:03
8:04
9:01
9:02
9:03
9:04
10:0
110
:02
10:0
310
:04
11:0
111
:02
11:0
3
No
-Fa
ult
Cla
im S
ev
eri
ty
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
No
-Fa
ult C
laim
Fre
qu
en
cy
Avg. Claim Severity
Frequency
About 10% of No-Fault Claim Costs in 2011 Were Estimated to Be Attributable to Fraud and Abuse
No-Fault Claim Severity
Claim Severity nearly reached a record high
in 2010:Q2: $8,990
Avg. Claim Severity Rose 63% in 5 years
after 1997 Presbyterian
Decision
Avg. Claim Severity is up 44% since 2004:Q4 though 2011:Q3
Claim Frequency was up 27% in 2011:Q1 from
2008:Q3
*2011 figure is based on data for the 4 quarters ending Q3:2011.Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations and research from ISO/PCI Fast Track data.
120
Distribution Trends
Distribution by Channel Type Continues to Evolve
121
All P/C Lines Distribution Channels, Direct vs. Independent Agents
Source: Insurance Information Institute; based on data from Conning and A.M. Best.
P-C Industry 2011:Q3 profits were down 71% to $8.0B vs. 2010:Q3,
due primarily to high catastrophe losses and as non-cat
underwriting results deteriorated
* ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 3.0% ROAS for 2011:Q3, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEs
Combined Ratio / ROE
* 2008 -2011 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2011:Q3 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 109.9, ROAS = 1.9%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.
Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs
A combined ratio of about 100 generated ~5.5% ROE in 2009/10,
10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
*
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2011*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates. 2011 figure is an estimate based on annualized ROAS through Q3 data. Note: Data for 2008-2011 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. For 2011:Q3 ROAS = 1.9% including M&FG.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6%2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
10 Years9 Years
2011:3.0%*
History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
P/C Premium Growth Cycles
131
Cyclicality is Driven Primarily by the Industry’s Underwriting
Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but Growth Returned: More in 2011?
(Percent)1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
*2011 figure is through first 9 months vs. same period in 2010 Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
NWP was up 0.9% in 2010
2011:Q3 growth
was +3.1%
133
P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change, Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Finally! Back-to-back quarters of net written premium growth(vs. the same quarter, prior year)
10.2
%15
.1%
16.8
%16
.7%
12.5
%10
.1%
9.7%
7.8%
7.2%
5.6%
2.9%
5.5%
-4.6
%-4
.1%
-5.8
%-1
.6%
10.3
%10
.2% 13
.4%
6.6%
-1.6
%2.
1%0.
0%-1
.9%
0.5%
-1.8
%-0
.7%
-4.4
%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-5
.2%
-1.4
%-1
.3%
1.3% 2.
3%1.
3%3.
5%1.
6%4.
1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2002
:Q1
2002
:Q2
2002
:Q3
2002
:Q4
2003
:Q1
2003
:Q2
2003
:Q3
2003
:Q4
2004
:Q1
2004
:Q2
2004
:Q3
2004
:Q4
2005
:Q1
2005
:Q2
2005
:Q3
2005
:Q4
2006
:Q1
2006
:Q2
2006
:Q3
2006
:Q4
2007
:Q1
2007
:Q2
2007
:Q3
2007
:Q4
2008
:Q1
2008
:Q2
2008
:Q3
2008
:Q4
2009
:Q1
2009
:Q2
2009
:Q3
2009
:Q4
2010
:Q1
2010
:Q2
2010
:Q3
2010
:Q4
2011
:Q1
2011
:Q2
2011
:Q3
Through 2011:Q3, growth in personal lines
predominating cos. (+3.1%) and commercial lines predominating cos.
(+3.9%), diversified (+2.3%)
Capital/PolicyholderSurplus (US)
144
Have Large Global Losses Reduced Capacity in the Industry, Setting
Investment Gains through Q3:2011 Were Surprisingly Robust. Investment Gains Recovered Significantly in 2010 Due to Realized Investment Gains;
The Financial Crisis Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in 2008
1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.* 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B.Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
($ Billions)
Investment gains through Q3:2011 were $2.1B above the
same period in 2010—a surprise given falling rates
and flat stock markets
160
Treasury Yield Curves: Pre-Crisis (July 2007) vs. Dec. 2011
Treasury yield curve remains near its most depressed level
in at least 45 years. Investment income is falling as a result. Fed is unlikely to hike rates until well into 2014.
The Fed Is Actively Signaling that it Is Determined to Keep Rates Low Through 2013 and Possibly into 2014
Sources: Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve Bank; Insurance Information Institute.
161
-1.8
%
-1.8
%
-2.0
%
-3.6
%
-3.3
%
-3.3
%
-3.7
%
-4.3
%
-5.2
%
-5.7
%
-7.3%
-1.9
%
-2.1
%
-3.1
%
-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
Perso
nal L
ines
Pvt Pass
Aut
o
Pers P
rop
Comm
ercia
l
Comm
l Auto
Credit
Comm
Pro
p
Comm
Cas
Fidelity
/Sure
ty
Warra
nty
Surplu
s Line
s
Med
Mal
WC
Reinsu
rance
**
Lower Investment Earnings Place a Greater Burden on Underwriting and Pricing Discipline
*Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums**US domestic reinsurance onlySource: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line*
Financial Strength & Underwriting
163
Cyclical Pattern is P-C Impairment History is Directly Tied to
Underwriting, Reserving & Pricing
P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–20118
15
12
71
19
34
91
31
21
99
16
14
13
36
49
31 3
45
04
85
56
05
84
12
91
61
23
11
8 19
49 50
47
35
18
14 15 16 1
9 21
28
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Source: A.M. Best Special Report “1969-2011 Impairment Review,” January 23, 2012; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C Insurance Cycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets
3 small insurers in Missouri did encounter
problems in 2011 following the May
tornado in Joplin. They were absorbed by a
larger insurer and all claims were paid.
166
Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969–2010
3.6%4.0%
8.6%
7.3%
7.8%
7.1%
7.8%13.6%
40.3%
Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2010 Impairment Review, Special Report, April 2011.
Historically, Deficient Loss Reserves and Inadequate Pricing AreBy Far the Leading Cause of P-C Insurer Impairments.
Investment and Catastrophe Losses Play a Much Smaller Role
Deficient Loss Reserves/Inadequate Pricing
Reinsurance Failure
Rapid GrowthAlleged Fraud
Catastrophe Losses
Affiliate Impairment
Investment Problems (Overstatement of Assets)
Misc.
Sig. Change in Business
169
The Economic Storm
What the Financial Crisis and Recession Mean for the Industry’s
Exposure Base, Growth and Profitability
170
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 1/12; Insurance Information Institute.
2.7
%0
.9%
3.2
%2
.3%
2.9
%-0
.7%
0.6
%-4
.0%
-6.8
% -4.9
%-0
.7%
1.6
%5
.0%
3.9
%3
.8%
2.5
%2
.3%
0.4
%1
.3%
1.8
% 2.8
%2
.0%
2.3
%2
.3%
2.7
%2
.6%
2.7
%2
.8%
3.0
%4.1
%1
.1%
1.8
%2
.5% 3.6
%3
.1%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2
00
0
2
00
1
2
00
2
2
00
3
2
00
4
2
00
5
2
00
6
07
:1Q
07
:2Q
07
:3Q
07
:4Q
08
:1Q
08
:2Q
08
:3Q
08
:4Q
09
:1Q
09
:2Q
09
:3Q
09
:4Q
10
:1Q
10
:2Q
10
:3Q
10
:4Q
11
:1Q
11
:2Q
11
:3Q
11
:4Q
12
:1Q
12
:2Q
12
:3Q
12
:4Q
13
:1Q
13
:2Q
13
:3Q
13
:4Q
Demand for Insurance Continues To Be Impacted by Sluggish Economic Conditions, but the Benefits of Even Slow Growth Will Compound and
Gradually Benefit the Economy Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing
slump, labor market contraction has been
severe but modest recovery is underway
The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%
2011 got off to a sluggish start, but growth is
expected to proceed at a modest pace in 2012-2013
172
Labor Market Trends
Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Personal/Commercial
Lines Exposure, But Trend is Improving
173
Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Stubbornly High in 2011, But Falling
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan00
Jan01
Jan02
Jan03
Jan04
Jan05
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Traditional Unemployment Rate U-3
Unemployment + Underemployment Rate U-6
Unemployment stood at 8.5% in
December
Unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, highest monthly rate since 1983.
Peak rate in the last 30 years:
10.8% in November -
December 1982
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
U-6 went from 8.0% in March
2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 15.2%
in Dec. 2011
January 2000 through December 2011, Seasonally Adjusted (%)
Recession ended in
November 2001
Unemployment kept rising for
19 more months
Recession began in
December 2007
Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market might finally be improving
Dec 11
186
7921
365
127
42 15-1
09-1
465 97
23-1
2-8
5 -58
-161
-253 -230
-257
-347
-456
-547
-734 -6
67-8
06-7
07-7
44-6
49-3
34-4
52-2
97 -215 -186
-262
75-8
316
62
229
51 6111
714
311
2 193
128 16
794
261
219
241
99 7517
372
220
120
134 21
2
144
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
Jan-
07F
eb-0
7M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7S
ep-0
7O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-
Jan-
08F
eb-0
8M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8S
ep-0
8O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-
Jan-
09F
eb-0
9M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
n-09
Jul-0
9A
ug-0
9S
ep-0
9O
ct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-
Jan-
10F
eb-1
0M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0S
ep-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-
Jan-
11F
eb-1
1M
ar-1
1A
pr-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
n-11
Jul-1
1A
ug-1
1S
ep-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-
Monthly Change in Private Employment
January 2008 through December 2011* (Thousands)
Private Employers Added 3.343 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 4.66 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.81 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 10/11 and 1/12 (forecasts).
The slack in the U.S. economy suggests that inflationary pressures should remain subdued for an extended period of times. Energy, health care and
commodity prices, plus U.S. debt burden, remain longer-run concerns
Annual Inflation Rates (%)
Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the
commodity bubble reduced inflationary pressures in 2009/10
Higher energy, commodity and food
prices pushed up inflation in 2011, but
not longer turn inflationary
expectations.
P/C Personal Insurance Claim Cost Drivers Grow Faster Than the Core CPI Suggests
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.
3.2%
1.7%
6.8%
5.1%
4.2%
3.0% 3.2%
5.0%
7.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Overall CPI "Core" CPI InpatientHospitalServices
OutpatientHospitalServices
PrescriptionDrugs
Medical CareCommodities
LegalServices
Motor VehicleParts &
Equipment
ResidentialMaint. &Repair
Price Level Change, 2011 vs. 2010
Healthcare costs are a major liability, med pay, and PIP claim cost driver. They are likely to grow faster than the CPI for the next few years, at least