Performance of the National Air Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural and Other Urban vs. Rural and Other Comparisons Comparisons Jerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen Jerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Meteorological Development Laboratory Laboratory NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP National Centers for National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Prediction NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland
20
Embed
Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural and Other Comparisons Jerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Performance of the National Air Quality Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural
and Other Comparisonsand Other ComparisonsJerry Gorline and Jeff McQueenJerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen
Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDLJerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL
Meteorological Development LaboratoryMeteorological Development Laboratory
The NAM driven Community Multi-The NAM driven Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model
EPA provided urban/rural classifications EPA provided urban/rural classifications and elevation information over CONUSand elevation information over CONUS
observing sites: observing sites: ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716urban areas shape file from U.S. Censusurban areas shape file from U.S. Census note: these results are preliminarynote: these results are preliminary
Performance of the National Air Quality Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, comparisons:Forecast Capability, comparisons:
urban vs. ruralurban vs. rurallow vs. high elevation (>250 m)low vs. high elevation (>250 m)
coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only)coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only)
2x2 contingency definitions
ObservedYes No
Predicted Yes a byy yn
No c dny nn
FC = (a + d)/(a + b + c + d) TS = a /(a + b + c) Thresholds Used: POD = a/(a + c) Ozone: 76 ppb FAR = b/(a + b) Aerosols: 35 ug/m3
Number of observed values higher than Number of observed values higher than 76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental
8-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 318-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 31
Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 2011Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 20111200 UTC experimental1200 UTC experimental
predicted in dark blueobserved as red dots
FC=0.755TS=0.186POD=0.810FAR=0.805CASES: 84
Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 2011Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 20111200 UTC experimental1200 UTC experimental
predicted in dark blueobserved as red dots
FC=0.823TS=0.265POD=0.776FAR=0.713CASES: 98
Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sitesurban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites
ruralFC=0.843TS=0.191POD=0.865FAR=0.803
urbanFC=0.827TS=0.141POD=0.966FAR=0.858
Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) siteshigh elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites
high elev> 250 m
FC=0.780TS=0.152POD=0.773FAR=0.841
low elev0 m
FC=0.833TS=0.150POD=0.888FAR=0.847
Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011inland (red) vs. coastal (green) sitesinland (red) vs. coastal (green) sites
Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sitesurban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites
urbanFC=0.817TS=0.133POD=0.164FAR=0.586
ruralFC=0.843TS=0.145POD=0.168FAR=0.485
Note: no smoke emissions
Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) siteshigh elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites
low elev0 m
FC=0.813TS=0.129POD=0.162FAR=0.612
high elev> 250 m
FC=0.793TS=0.080POD=0.096FAR=0.667
Regional monthly bias of 1-h aerosolsRegional monthly bias of 1-h aerosolsJan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/mJan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/m33
Seasonal change in bias Seasonal change in bias summer under-predictionsummer under-prediction
seasonal change in biassummer under-prediction
Daily max 8-h ozone vs. elevationDaily max 8-h ozone vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.
predictions (red) vs. observations (green)predictions (red) vs. observations (green)
high elev> 250 m
FC=0.822TS=0.165POD=0.917FAR=0.832
ozone: over-prediction during the summer
low elev0 m
FC=0.833TS=0.150POD=0.888FAR=0.847
Daily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevationDaily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.
predictions (red) vs. observations (green)predictions (red) vs. observations (green)
low elev0 m
FC=0.813TS=0.129POD=0.162FAR=0.612
high elev> 250 m
FC=0.793TS=0.080POD=0.096FAR=0.667
aerosols: under-predictionduring the summer
8-h ozone Regions: (LM, UM, NE, SE), TS and PODFour different time periods
# sitesUrban vs. Rural one week two weeks one month two months
Low Elev POD 0.162 0.160 0.154 0.153High Elev POD 0.096 0.078 0.145 0.124
SummaryOzone: higher TS on coast compared to inland (NE), low elevation: over-prediction in the summer. Aerosols: higher TS at low elevation, lower POD than w/ ozone, under-prediction in the summer.
remove rural sites that are too close to remove rural sites that are too close to urban areas, may have affected results.urban areas, may have affected results.
compare by region, especially for the compare by region, especially for the Pacific Coast (PC) region.Pacific Coast (PC) region.
for aerosols, compare winter vs. for aerosols, compare winter vs. summer, urban/rural, low/high elev.summer, urban/rural, low/high elev.
compare different model compare different model configurations, NMM-B, 4 km.configurations, NMM-B, 4 km.
expand inland vs. coast comparison to expand inland vs. coast comparison to include entire U.S. east coast.include entire U.S. east coast.
Suggestions for future work: Suggestions for future work: