Peak oil

Peak  Oil      

 Stephen  Graham  

Newcastle  University    

What  is  Peak  Oil?  

Actually  many  versions  (from  Atkinson,  2009),    

Global  UrbanisaEon  and  ModernizaEon  Means  Big  Increases  in  Energy  and  especially  Fossil  Fuel  demand    

Recap:  Cyborg  CiEes,  Resource  Flows  and  Ecological  Footprints  

History  of  CiEes  and  Energy  Intensity  

•  ‘culture  advances  as  the  amount  of  energy  harnessed  per  capita  per  year  increases,  or  as  the  efficiency  or  economy  of  the  means  of  controlling  energy  is  increased,  or  both.’  

•  White,  L.  A.  (1959)  The  EvoluEon  of  Culture:  The  Development  of  CivilizaEon  to  the  Fall  of  Rome.  New  York:  McGraw-­‐Hill.  

Recap  2:  Cascading  Effects  

Supply Disruptions: Oil Shock

...the  world  has  never  faced  a  problem  like  this.  Without  massive  miEgaEon  more  than  a  decade  before  the  fact,  the  problem  will  

be  pervasive  and  will  not  be  temporary.  Pre-­‐  vious  energy  transiEons  were  gradual  and  evoluEonary.  Oil  peaking  will  be  

abrupt  and  revoluEonary.    R.  Hirsch,  R.  Bezdek,  and  R.  Wendling,  Peaking  of  World  Oil  ProducEon:  Impacts,  MiEgaEon,  and  Risk  Management  (Oakton,  VA:  

U.S.  Department  of  Energy,  NaEonal  Energy  Technology  Laboratory,  2005).  QuotaEon  from  page  64.  

PoliEcs  of  Denial  e.g.  Sprawl  and  Automobility  

Ironically,  Marketed  to  address  and  Exploit  Urban  ‘insecurity’  

Huge  Environmental  and  geopoliEcal  ImplicaEons:  New  ‘Great  Game’  to  scramble  for  Caspian  

Basin  reserves  

ExploitaEon  of  Alberta  Oil  Sands  

Biofuels  Land  Grab  

Might  Sprawl  End  up  Being  an  advantage?  

•  “Suburban  sprawl”  in  fact  gives  us  an  advantage.  Detached  houses  are  easy  to  retrofit,  and  the  space  around  them  allows  for  solar  access  and  space  for  food  producEon.  A  water  supply  is  already  in  place,  our  pampered,  unproducEve  ornamental  gardens  have  ferEle  soils  and  ready  access  to  nutrients,  and  we  live  in  ideal  areas  with  mild  climates,  access  to  the  sea,  the  city,  and  inland  country.”  

•  D.  Holmgren,  “Retrofifng  the  Suburbs  for  Sustainability,”  CSIRO  Sustainability  Network  (March  30,  2005)  ,hhp://www.energybulleEn.net/5104.html.  Accessed  March  20,  2007.  QuotaEon  from  page  9.  

Problems  

•  Denial:  “There  is  sEll  almost  no  admission  that  effecEve  acEon  to  halt  global  warming  will  mean  pufng  the  global  economy  into  sharp  reverse  and  that  peak  oil  will  in  any  case  have  the  same  effect.  “  Atkinson  2010  

•  More  of  the  same:  neoliberalised  global  capitalism  •  AssumpEon  that  the  problems  are  ‘technical’  and  not  (geo)poliEcal:  Or  assumpEon  that  capitalist  technological  innovaEon  will  simply  sustain  new  economic  sectors  based  on  green  energy  to  address  the  problem  

SoluEons?    •  EcolocalisaEon:  TransiEon  Towns  Movement  

•  hhp://www.transiEonnetwork.org/  But  voluntarisEc  and  small,  affluent,  eco-­‐aware  minoriEes.  Tend  not  to  address  big  ciEes  or  mass  populaEons  

•  Take  the  Threat  Seriously—Create  Peak-­‐Oil  Strategies  •  Plan  and  Build  CiEes  with  Reduced  Car  Dependence  (but  what  

about  retrofi,ng?)  •  Rebuild  Peri-­‐Urban  Agricultures  •  Facilitate  Localism  •  Regulate  for  the  Post-­‐Oil  TransiEon  •  Prepare  Risk  Management  Scenarios  for  the  Future  

Assessment  Recap  

•  Assessment

•  Semester 1 Submission: (On Turnitin): by 12 noon 10th January 2012

•  A 3000 word essay, as follows.

•  Jon Coaffee and David Murakami Wood (2007) argue that global urbanization means that “security is becoming more civic, urban, domestic and personal: security is coming home.” Discuss this statement and illustrate your essay with examples. In your conclusions, explore some of the implications of your discussion for the governance and planning of cities.

•  Reference: Coaffee, J. and Murakami Wood, D. (2007), “The Global Urban Response to Terrorist Risk Security is Coming Home: Rethinking Scale and Constructing Resilience,” International Relations 20: 503

Semester  2  

•  An 3000 word assessed essay (80% of Sem. 2 assessment ) designed to assess student’s ability to undertake and present research which engages with theoretical, empirical and policy-relevant materials in a sophisticated and critical manner (words)

•  An individual presentation (20% of semester 2 assessment) designed to assess student’s ability to present research which engages with theoretical, empirical and policy-relevant materials in a sophisticated and critical manner

•  Seminars in two parts: 1. Case studies: Start of semester from Graduate Students and a few other colleagues

•  2. You!