AIDI May 2016 www.afdb.org The Africa Infrastructure Development Index 2016 AfDB Chief Economist Complex The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) is produced by the African Development Bank and serves a num- ber of key objectives, principally: (i) to monitor and evaluate the status and progress of infrastructure development across the continent; (ii) to assist in re- source allocation within the framework of ADF replenishments; and (iii) to contri- bute to policy dialogue within the Bank and between the Bank, RMCs and other development organizations. The AIDI also serves as a key tool in evaluating and monitoring the conti- nent’s progress toward attainment of the “High 5s,” the number one priority being to “light up and power Africa.” The indicators produced by the AIDI also generate other indices relating to High 5s, namely the “Feed Africa Index,” “In- dustrialize Africa Index,” and “Integrate Africa Index.” The methodology on which the AIDI is based, and the background and rationale for its development, are expounded in an earlier brief, namely “The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI), May 2013.” 1 Readers are requested to refer to that document for full details. A revision of the original methodology is currently underway as more data are collected under the auspices of the Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program (AIKP). The current AIDI covers the latest data collected by the Bank over the period 2000-2013 under the infrastructure statistics component of its Statistical Capacity Building program in African countries. The AIDI is updated and released annually. The annual update presents selected indicators that comprise the Index’s ma- jor components, namely: (i) Transport; (ii) Electricity; (iii) ICT; and (iv) Water and Sanitation. This brief charts the progress made by African countries over the period 2010- 2013 and discusses the reasons behind the latest trends. 1. Introduction and Background 1 Available online at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/ Economic_Brief_-_The_Africa_Infrastructure_Development_Index.pdf Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Background 2. The AIDI 2016 Highlights 3. Main Results 4. Conclusions References Annexes Charles Leyeka Lufumpa Director, AfDB Statistics Department ESTA Maurice Mubila OIC, Social & Economic Statistics Division ESTA 1 Fessou Lawson OIC, Statistical Capacity Building Division ESTA 2 Layout and production by African Development Bank This AIDI update was prepared by Nirina Letsara, Senior Statistician and Désiré Lakpa, Assistant Statistician, under the supervision of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Director, Statistics Department, African Development Bank. 1 2 3 8 9 10
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AIDIMay 2016
www.afdb.org
The Africa InfrastructureDevelopment Index 2016AfDB
Chief Economist Complex
The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) is produced by the African Development Bank and serves a num-ber of key objectives, principally: (i) to monitor and evaluate the status and progress of infrastructure development across the continent; (ii) to assist in re-source allocation within the framework of ADF replenishments; and (iii) to contri-bute to policy dialogue within the Bank and between the Bank, RMCs and other development organizations.
The AIDI also serves as a key tool in evaluating and monitoring the conti-nent’s progress toward attainment of the “High 5s,” the number one priority being to “light up and power Africa.” The indicators produced by the AIDI also generate other indices relating to High 5s, namely the “Feed Africa Index,” “In-dustrialize Africa Index,” and “Integrate Africa Index.”
The methodology on which the AIDI is based, and the background and rationale for its development, are expounded
in an earlier brief, namely “The Africa Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI), May 2013.”1 Readers are requested to refer to that document for full details. A revision of the original methodology is currently underway as more data are collected under the auspices of the Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program (AIKP).
The current AIDI covers the latest data collected by the Bank over the period 2000-2013 under the infrastructure statistics component of its Statistical Capacity Building program in African countries. The AIDI is updated and released annually.
The annual update presents selected indicators that comprise the Index’s ma-jor components, namely: (i) Transport; (ii) Electricity; (iii) ICT; and (iv) Water and Sanitation.
This brief charts the progress made by African countries over the period 2010-2013 and discusses the reasons behind the latest trends.
1. Introduction and Background
1 Available online at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Economic_Brief_-_The_Africa_Infrastructure_Development_Index.pdf
Table of Contents
1. Introduction and Background
2. The AIDI 2016 Highlights
3. Main Results
4. Conclusions
References
Annexes
Charles Leyeka LufumpaDirector, AfDB Statistics DepartmentESTA
Maurice MubilaOIC, Social & Economic Statistics DivisionESTA 1
Fessou LawsonOIC, Statistical Capacity Building DivisionESTA 2
Layout and production by African Development Bank
This AIDI update was prepared by Nirina Letsara, Senior Statistician and Désiré Lakpa, Assistant Statistician, under the supervision of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Director, Statistics Department, African Development Bank.
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A marked overall improvement in AIDI 2016 scores:In general, AIDI scores are improving for all countries, although
the rate of progress for some nations has been insufficient to gain
promotion in the AIDI rankings.
The top winners in terms of rankings: Mali gained 9 positions (owing to fast ICT growth), followed by
Kenya and Mauritania (5 positions due to ICT and transportation
improvements), Ghana (4 positions due to ICT growth), Nigeria (3
positions thanks to ICT growth), Gambia, Senegal, Tanzania, and
Madagascar (2 positions each due to improvements in ICT, water
supply & sanitation, and transport - the latter to a lesser degree).
The main losers in terms of rankings: Zimbabwe lost 5 positions (owing to slower growth in the sectors
of transport and water supply & sanitation), followed by Burundi
and Djibouti (4 positions owing to slow growth in ICT), and Leso-
tho (3 positions owing to slower growth in the power sector).
Subregional rankings remain stable: The best performing subregion to emerge was North Africa,
followed by Southern Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, and East
Africa.
ICT emerges as the main driver of AIDI improvements: The ICT sector has driven the greatest improvements in the AIDI
ratings over the past decade, compared to all other sectors. It
is no coincidence that the top ten ranked countries in the latest
AIDI were those with the highest growth in their ICT sectors. Ac-
cording to the AfDB report “African Telecom Infrastructure Invest-
ment Needs, April 2015”, the period 2005-2010 was a period
of very high growth for mobile telephony, marked by the emer-
gence of new operators in the market, massive growth in cove-
rage extensions, broadband speeds, as well as user subscrip-
tions. The period 2010-2015 also witnessed the development
of new submarine and regional overland cables, which provided
huge new capacity around coastal Africa, as well as facilitating
mobile operator consolidation. This period also saw large invest-
ments by the private sector and the emergence of public-private
partnerships (PPPs) in some countries, which has been a major
factor behind the growth. Over the next few decades, there will
be a need to upgrade and modernize the mobile networks to
support the shift to smartphones. The need for fiber broadband
networks and the demand by both corporations and the general
public for superfast fiber access at national levels have emerged
as urgent priorities to keep pace with global developments, and
this will require major financial investment. It is anticipated that
in the near to medium term, ICT will continue to lead the growth
and improvement in infrastructure development, as captured by
the AIDI scores.
Transport and power sectors remaincrucial to infrastructure development, though recording slower growth: The transport and power sectors require a much higher level of
investment to fuel their growth. Although these sectors are cru-
cial components of the AIDI, their impact in terms of boosting
the rankings of African countries has of much lesser significance
than that of the ICT sector. Although progress has been made
in both sectors across the continent, the rate of that growth has
not been great enough to affect individual country rankings in the
AIDI. As the Bank’s first objective over the next decade, in terms
of the High 5s, is to “Light up and Power Africa”, investments by
the AfDB targeting this sector should eventuate in major impro-
vements in the AIDI rankings. The Bank’s key role in catalyzing
resources from development partners and from the private sector
through its own participation in projects and programs in this sec-
tor, will also boost investment levels.
Water supply and sanitation – disappointing progress for many countries: Slower progress in water supply and sanitation can be observed
in many African countries, compared to developing countries in
other global regions. Surprisingly, some countries that ranked in
the top ten according to the AIDI scores still lack improved sa-
nitation facilities, particularly in rural areas. In about half of the
countries that make up the African continent, less than 35% of
their populations have access to improved sanitation facilities and
less than 76% have access to improved water sources. The pro-
gress made in this area still lags well below the targets set by the
UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This needs to be
addressed urgently, given the massive impact of this sector on
the quality of life of Africans and its linkages to other sectors such
as health – particularly in rural areas. Clearly, policies and invest-
ments targeting this sector are imperative to drive up overall AIDI
scores and to achieve many of the SDGs.
2. The AIDI 2016 Highlights
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The AIDI 2016 results are presented in the form of scores and
rankings using data collected by the Bank for the period 2010-
2013. In general, scores are improving for all African countries, al-
though not necessarily at a sufficient rate to boost the rankings of
many countries. Figure 1 shows the status of all African countries
according to the 2016 scores.
The AIDI 2016 shows that the top ten ranked countries remained
the same as in the AIDI 2013, namely Seychelles, Egypt, Libya,
South Africa, Mauritius, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Cabo Verde,
and Botswana (cf. Table 1), although their specific rankings so-
metimes changed. These top ten countries are characterized
principally by a robust performance in the following sectors: ICT,
transport and power. It is worth noting that within this top perfor-
mance group, Egypt and Libya rose respectively one position in
the rankings, against South Africa which lost two positions. This
was due to progress made by Libya with faster growth in interna-
tional internet bandwidth (cf. Figure 2) and by Egypt in respect of
its growth in road density per capita (Figure 3) compared to South
Africa.
The bottom ten countries in the rankings are Mozambique, Sierra
Leone, Madagascar, Eritrea, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethio-
pia, Chad, Niger, South Sudan, and Somalia. Notably, this group
is characterized by low performance in ICT, transport and power.
It is evident that these three sectors are responsibly primarily for
the wide differentiation between the most advanced countries ver-
3. Main Results
0 20 40 60 80 100
SeychellesEgypt, Arab Rep.
LibyaSouth Africa
MauritiusTunisia
MoroccoAlgeria
Cabo VerdeBotswanaNamibia
GabonGambia
Sao Tome and PrincipeGhana
SwazilandSenegal
ZimbabweKenya
DjiboutiComoros
ZambiaNigeria
RwandaUganda
CameroonCote d'Ivoire
MalawiEquatorial Guinea
AngolaBurkina Faso
LesothoBenin
MauritaniaBurundi
SudanMali
CongoGuinea
Guinea-BissauLiberia
TogoTanzania
Central African RepublicMozambiqueSierra Leone
EritreaMadagascar
Congo, Dem. Rep.Ethiopia
ChadNiger
South SudanSomalia
Figure 1. AIDI 2016, Country Scores
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Interna�onal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) (% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
-
Libya South Africa
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
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40
60
80
100
120
140
Phone (mobile & fixed line) subscrip�on(% of popula�on; 2013)
Mali Top of bo�om ten countries (Somalia)
0
0,02
0,04
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0,08
0,1
0,12
Fixed (wired) Broadband Internet Subscribers(per 100 inhabitants; 2013)
Tanzania Top of bo�om ten countries (Mozambique)
Total Paved Roads per capita(% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
South AfricaEgypt
Figure 2. ICT Growth - Libya vs South Africa
0%
50%
100%
150%
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250%
Interna�onal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) (% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
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Libya South Africa
-10%
0%
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20%
30%
40%
50%
0
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Phone (mobile & fixed line) subscrip�on(% of popula�on; 2013)
Mali Top of bo�om ten countries (Somalia)
0
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0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
Fixed (wired) Broadband Internet Subscribers(per 100 inhabitants; 2013)
Tanzania Top of bo�om ten countries (Mozambique)
Total Paved Roads per capita(% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
South AfricaEgypt
Figure 3. Transport Growth - Egypt vs South Africa
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Interna�onal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) (% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
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Libya South Africa
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
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40
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120
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Phone (mobile & fixed line) subscrip�on(% of popula�on; 2013)
Mali Top of bo�om ten countries (Somalia)
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0,1
0,12
Fixed (wired) Broadband Internet Subscribers(per 100 inhabitants; 2013)
Tanzania Top of bo�om ten countries (Mozambique)
Total Paved Roads per capita(% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
South AfricaEgypt
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Interna�onal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) (% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
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Libya South Africa
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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Phone (mobile & fixed line) subscrip�on(% of popula�on; 2013)
Mali Top of bo�om ten countries (Somalia)
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0,1
0,12
Fixed (wired) Broadband Internet Subscribers(per 100 inhabitants; 2013)
Tanzania Top of bo�om ten countries (Mozambique)
Total Paved Roads per capita(% change; annual; period 2010-2013)
South AfricaEgypt
Figure 4. ICT: Mali vs Bottom Ten
Figure 5. ICT: Tanzania vs Bottom Ten
sus the less developed countries in Africa, according to the AIDI.
The AIDI 2016 results reveal an improvement in the bottom ten
countries compared to the AIDI 2013 rankings. The two coun-
tries that elevated themselves out of the 2010 bottom ten were
Mali and Tanzania. Mali gained nine positions (from rank 44th to
35th) and Tanzania two positions (from rank 45th to 43th) (cf.
Table 1). This was due to accelerated progress in phone (landline
plus mobile) subscriptions for Mali (cf. Figure 4), and in wired
broadband internet subscriptions for Tanzania (cf. Figure 5) com-
pared to the bottom ten countries. The accelerated growth was
already evident for these two countries over the period 2000-
2010 (cf. the previous AIDI brief dated May 2013; see footnote 1)
due to their progress in ICT improvements. However, the Central
African Republic and Mozambique have slipped in their rankings
to join the bottom ten group of countries.
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Figure 6 below shows in the form of scatterplot the differentiation between the top ten and the bottom ten clusters of countries.
Axi
s 2
(cor
rela
ted
with
Wat
er S
uppl
y &
San
itatio
n)
Axis 1 (correlated with Transport, ICT and Power)
Figure 6. Principal Component Analysis Scatterplot
Axis 1 characterizes the top ten and the bottom ten clusters. This axis is correlated with Transport, ICT and Power. The countries in
green are the top ten countries according to the AIDI index (best performers in the above sectors) while those in yellow represent the
bottom ten.
Axis 2 differentiates the performance of countries mainly in terms of their development in Water Supply and Sanitation.
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In terms of a comparison of overall infrastructure development
across the five subregions of the continent, North Africa emerges
as the top performer followed by Southern Africa, West Africa,
Central Africa, and East Africa (cf. Figure 7 and Table 2).
North and Southern Africa demonstrate higher performance in
the following areas: ICT (mobile phone and internet subscription
with greater international internet bandwidth), improved sanita-
tion facilities, and transport.
On the other hand, West Africa performs well in terms of fixed
line phone subscriptions, number of internet users, paved road
density, and electricity generation to a lesser degree.
Central Africa and East Africa have moderate and sometimes
low performance in terms of water supply, international internet
bandwidth, paved road density, and phone subscriptions (both
mobile and fixed). These subregions still have considerable po-
tential for growth in these areas.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
North Africa SouthernAfrica
West Africa Central Africa East Africa
Figure 7. AIDI 2016: Africa Subregional Comparison
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Rank Country 2013 Rank Country 2014 Rank Country 2015 Rank Country 20161 Seychelles 84.41 1 Seychelles 89.57 1 Seychelles 93.71 1 Seychelles 93.922 South Africa 78.97 2 Egypt. Arab Rep. 81.11 2 Egypt. Arab Rep. 85.62 2 Egypt. Arab Rep. 85.663 Egypt. Arab Rep. 77.67 3 South Africa 73.81 3 Libya 77.67 3 Libya 77.794 Libya 71.37 4 Libya 73.44 4 South Africa 75.90 4 South Africa 75.515 Mauritius 67.01 5 Mauritius 71.21 5 Mauritius 74.28 5 Mauritius 74.076 Tunisia 59.51 6 Tunisia 61.88 6 Tunisia 66.19 6 Tunisia 66.267 Morocco 51.81 7 Morocco 56.66 7 Morocco 61.40 7 Morocco 62.408 Algeria 47.78 8 Algeria 49.91 8 Algeria 52.98 8 Algeria 53.399 Cabo Verde 44.11 9 Cabo Verde 46.20 9 Cabo Verde 48.95 9 Cabo Verde 49.43
Table 1. Africa Infrastructure Development Index 2016
Note: The results for 2013-2016 are based on data collected for the period 2010-2013
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Rank Country 2013 Rank Country 2014 Rank Country 2015 Rank Country 20161 North Africa 63.80 1 North Africa 56.24 1 North Africa 59.85 1 North Africa 60.282 Southern Africa 35.15 2 Southern Africa 33.34 2 Southern Africa 34.54 2 Southern Africa 34.533 West Africa 16.26 3 West Africa 17.46 3 West Africa 18.55 3 West Africa 18.794 Central Africa 15.70 4 Central Africa 15.80 4 Central Africa 16.59 4 Central Africa 16.655 East Africa 11.58 5 East Africa 13.85 5 East Africa 14.61 5 East Africa 14.68
Table 2. Infrastructure Development Index by Region, 2016
Note: The results for 2013-2016 are based on data collected for the period 2010-2013
All countries improved their scores in the AIDI 2016, though at
different rates. The top ten countries remained constant over the
period but with slight changes in their rankings. It is noteworthy
that any significant improvement in the rankings of countries was
mainly due to progress in the ICT sector and, to a lesser degree,
in transport. No significant improvements were shown in the AIDI
rankings as a result of progress in the power sector or in wa-
ter supply and sanitation. This is because African countries have
made a similar rate of progress in these sectors. At the subregio-
nal level, the ranking has not changed over the period. Although
Central and East African countries (accounting for about 0.4 billion
people) have maintained their 4th and 5th position, these subre-
gions have great potential to improve their scores and rankings in
the future. If real improvements are made in Africa in the near term
in the power sector, the AIDI index will surely capture this and we
can expect to see significant changes in the rankings and scores.
4. Conclusions
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2. Cadima, J. and Jolliffe, I. T. (1995). “Loadings and Correla-
tions in the Interpretation of Principal Components.” Journal
of Applied Statistics, 22 (2): 203–214.
3. Canning, D. and Pedroni, P. (2008). “Infrastructure, Long-
Run Economic Growth and Causality Tests for Cointegrated
Panels,” Manchester School, 76 (5): 504–527.
4. Cattell, R. B. (1966). “The Scree Test for the Number of Fac-