PD 5 - Rovicky Dwi Putrohari, IAGIindonesiangassociety.com/storage/2016/06/Presentation-26.pdf · Energi untuk Transportasi ((Future)) Liquid Fuel Dominated BPPT 2013. ... menghitung

“Gas for Indonesia “Gas for Indonesia

20202020--2030".2030".

Rovicky Dwi PutrohariIndonesian Association of Geologist

BackgroundBackground

• Population growth of Indonesia require guarantees the

availability of natural resources to strengthen the resilience

and independence of the nation and the state in the future

• A need of strategies and models of governance as well as

a more accurate economic strategy.

• The provision of a secure environment (mitigation), to

conserve environment.conserve environment.

• Upgrade human resources potential (SDM) for operating

a more complex industries

Demographic BonusDemographic Bonus

2020-2030 ����160-180 Millions

working age

Widjojo Nitisastro

2020-2030 ����Window of opportunity

Indonesia Energy ProductionIndonesia Energy Production

4444

coalcoal

Indonesia Energy Balance 2012Indonesia Energy Balance 2012

5555

Final consumptionFinal consumption

6666

GDP vs Energy EfficiencyGDP vs Energy Efficiency

7777

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

Rates %

Do we have enough resources? Do we have enough resources?

Indonesian Population will be 400 Mil in 2050.

Indonesia will surpass Amerika after China and

India. Total earth population 9.850 Millions (close to

10 Billion) on that year.

CIA World Fact Book

ProyeksiProyeksi kedepankedepan ((FutureFuture))

BPPT 2013

EnergiEnergi untukuntuk TransportasiTransportasi

((FutureFuture) )

Liquid Fuel

Dominated

BPPT 2013

Dominated

KebutuhanKebutuhan energienergi finalfinal

Import Import EnergiEnergi /Ratio/Ratio

Crude oil balanceCrude oil balance

IMPORT

IMPORT

Gas Export Gas Export vsvs Local AllocationLocal Allocation

Long term contractLong term contract

LNG export

Projection of gas utilizationProjection of gas utilization

BPPT, 2013

Industry ChallengeIndustry Challenge

Projection of LNG production, Projection of LNG production,

consumption, export and importconsumption, export and import

Preparing gas importPreparing gas import

Gas Market GapGas Market Gap

Steel industry chainSteel industry chain

Available

Not available in

country (2013)country (2013)

Addition energy demandAddition energy demand

Potensi Tambahan

Pengadaan Energy

Listrik utk Smelter

KebutuhanKebutuhan energy finalenergy final

PNTM (PNTM (PertamabahnPertamabahn NilaiNilai Tambang Mineral)Tambang Mineral)

MP3EI

KebutuhanKebutuhan EnergiEnergi IndonesiaIndonesia

� Tahun 2008 perkiraan 3x

lipat dalam 20 tahun.

Tahun 2012 BPPT

menghitung kebutuhan

dasar juga 3x lipat. �

Impor energi

� Dengan MP3EI menjadi 4.5

kali lipat. MP3EI

kali lipat.

� Artinya kebutuhan impor

anergi 2030 dapat

mencapai 2-4 juta SBM.

BPPT, 2012

Energy ImportEnergy Import

2027 ���� NET IMPORT (BPPT)

2024 ���� NET IMPORT (IAGI)

BPPT, 2012

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Production

Condensates

Gas

Oil

Exploration and Exploration and ProductionProduction

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Series1Series2

Gas

Oil

Discovery D AlphaMinas Duri

01900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Undeveloped Onshore GasUndeveloped Onshore Gas

75 field has GIP > 30 75 field has GIP > 30 bcfbcf

Undeveloped Gas in AcehUndeveloped Gas in Aceh

Some of undeveloped gas field Some of undeveloped gas field

were not include in the program were not include in the program

Who is responsible for infrastructure ?Who is responsible for infrastructure ?

RingkasanRingkasan

�Pertumbuhan penduduk dan Bonus DemografiIndonesia 2020-2030 � 160-180 tenaga kerja aktif

�Perlu penyediaan lokasi yg aman (mitigasi), sehat(konservasi). � Infra Struktur

�Kebutuhan SDAlam dan SDEnergi perludiantisipasi.diantisipasi.

�Pengelolaan SDA dan SDE perlu mengutamakankebutuhan dalam negeri �

�Usaha mandiri dengan melakukan eksplorasi tetapharus diutamakan.

�Potensi bisnis migas masih menjadi industry strategis dengan pangsa investasi yang besar

PenyediaanPenyediaan EnergiEnergi PrimerPrimer

50 %

Migas50 %

Where is the gas resourcesWhere is the gas resources

RingkasanRingkasan

�Demography bonus Indonesia 2020-2030 � 160-180

Workforce � OPPORTUNITY

�Anticipate the need of energy resources and raw

material

�Focus on domestic demand

�Focus on infrastructure (incl, electric transmission)

Oil/Gas Licensing Time Line Oil/Gas Licensing Time Line

Exploration Wells2D/3D seismic

G&G

Exploration Stage (6-10years) Production Stage

License 30 years

GEOSCIENCEExploration Wells

Appraisal Wells

Development WellsInfill Wells

Constructions Maintenances

GEOSCIENCE

ENGINEERING

Discovery First Oil8-12 years

1st Period 2nd Period Production

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019