Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report. Power Snapshots Demand picks up, domestic coal production improves 21 November 2014 PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are: » All India power generation up 14% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Oct, all India generation grew 14% YoY to 85BU’s driven by 18.5% growth in Thermal generation. Also PLF at 56% was up 200bps YoY. Coal based PLF at 66% (+400bps YoY). » NTPC’s generation rebounds; PAF also improves: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% YoY to 19.2BU lead by higher demand. Coal based PLF was up 500bps YoY to 79% (+500bps on MoM basis) and PAF up +900bps to ~82%.. Gas based PLF improved to 33% YoY. » IPP’s generation robust: IPP’s generation grew 29% YoY and PLF improved 300bps YoY to 66%; lead by improvement in domestic coal supply. Rosa TPS PLF stood at 80%. JSW Vijaynagar TPS and Ratnagiri TPS PLF stood at 97% and 91% respectively. Also lead by improvement in supply from captive mines, RWPL reported PLF of 81%. APL’s Mundra TPS and Tiroda TPS reported PLF at 89% and 86% respectively. » International coal prices flat, CIL coal production improves. We note international coal prices were relatively flat MoM and stood at USD 65/ton (RB coal index) and USD 37 (4200kcal Indonesia Enviro Coal). In October CIL’s coal production was up 15% YoY to 40mn tons and dispatch at 39mn ton (+10% YoY). During FY15 (April‐Oct) production and dispatch stood at 252mn tons (+7%YoY) and 270mn tons (+4% YoY), respectively. » Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 13% YoY in Oct’14 and supply grew 12.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.3%, up 80bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (15%) and in UP (16%). The peak deficit was at 4.1% (+110bps YoY). In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh. » 660 MW capacities added in Sept ’14; 8.9GW added YTDFY15. In Sept ’14, capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacity commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power. Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])
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Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Power Snapshots Demand picks up, domestic coal production improves
21 November 2014PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are:
» All India power generation up 14% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Oct, all India generation grew 14% YoY to 85BU’s driven by 18.5% growth in Thermal generation. Also PLF at 56% was up 200bps YoY. Coal based PLF at 66% (+400bps YoY).
» NTPC’s generation rebounds; PAF also improves: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% YoY to 19.2BU lead by higher demand. Coal based PLF was up 500bps YoY to 79% (+500bps on MoM basis) and PAF up +900bps to ~82%.. Gas based PLF improved to 33% YoY.
» IPP’s generation robust: IPP’s generation grew 29% YoY and PLF improved 300bps YoY to 66%; lead by improvement in domestic coal supply. Rosa TPS PLF stood at 80%. JSW Vijaynagar TPS and Ratnagiri TPS PLF stood at 97% and 91% respectively. Also lead by improvement in supply from captive mines, RWPL reported PLF of 81%. APL’s Mundra TPS and Tiroda TPS reported PLF at 89% and 86% respectively.
» International coal prices flat, CIL coal production improves. We note international coal prices were relatively flat MoM and stood at USD 65/ton (RB coal index) and USD 37 (4200kcal Indonesia Enviro Coal). In October CIL’s coal production was up 15% YoY to 40mn tons and dispatch at 39mn ton (+10% YoY). During FY15 (April‐Oct) production and dispatch stood at 252mn tons (+7%YoY) and 270mn tons (+4% YoY), respectively.
» Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 13% YoY in Oct’14 and supply grew 12.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.3%, up 80bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (15%) and in UP (16%). The peak deficit was at 4.1% (+110bps YoY). In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh.
» 660 MW capacities added in Sept ’14; 8.9GW added YTDFY15. In Sept ’14, capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacity commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power.
21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
All India generation and PLF’s
All India Capacity (excl renew.) and PLF (MW)
In October ’14 all India PLF was up 200bps YoY and MoM at 56%.
Fuel wise generation and growth (%)
Thermal generation at 77BU up 22% YoY lead by 19% growth in coal based generation. Nuclear generation was down 10% YoY to 2.7BU and hydro generation was down 7.5%.
Thermal PLF’s (sector wise) (%)
Central utilities PLF was up 300bps YoY to 72% and State utilities PLF was up 700bps YoY to 61% and IPP’s PLF although sub optimal improved 300bps YoY to 66%.
PLF by fuel type (%)
Overall coal PLF’s were up 400bps YoY to 66%. Gas based plants continue to operate at sub‐optimal PLF of 22%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
NTPC’s generation and PLF’s
Coal based generation and PLF
NTPC’s coal based generation was up 13% to 20.2 BU. We note MoM PLF has improved at Kahalgaon TPS, Farkka TPS Singrauli TPS,Korba TPS.
Gas based generation and PLF
NTPC’s gas based generation was down 2% and PLF’s continue to languish at 33% on low availability of gas.
Coal based PLF (Plant wise)
NTPC’s Rihand TPS and Sipat TPS reported substantial improvement on YoY basis. PLF of Ramagundam TPS and Talcher TPS also improved. Decline in PLF was at Singrauli TPS and Vindhyachal TPS.
Gas based PLF (plant wise)
PLF for most gas based plants improved MoM.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Tata Power ‐ Mundra UMPP
Mundra UMPP’s PLF stood at 89%. (+2000pps YoY)
Tata Power ‐ Maithon power
Maithon PLF stood at 92% (+1800pps YoY).
Adani Power ‐ Mundra
Adani Power’s Mundra unit operated at PLF of 89%(+1000bps YoY).
Reliance Power ‐ Rosa
Rosa TPS PLF at 80%(‐600bps YoY) as Unit 4 was under shutdown..
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
IPP’s generation and PLF’s
JSW Energy ‐ Vijaynagar
JSW continued generation at robust PLF in Vijaynagar. For the 260MW plant, PLF stood at 99% and in the 660MW plant PLF stood at 101%.
JSW Energy‐ Ratnagiri
Ratnagiri generation stood at 818MU and PLF stood at 91%(+1800bps YoY).
JSW Energy‐ RWPL
Rajwest PLF improved to 81% lead by clearance for mine expansion.
Torrent – Sugen
Subdued performance in Sugen continued due to lower availability of gas. PLF stood at 27%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Karcham Wangtoo
Karcham Wangtoo PLF stood at 32% (‐500bps YoY) .
Bina
Bina TPS reported PLF at 72% due to higher fuel availability.
CESC
CESC PLF at 79% was flat YoY.
Jindal Power – Tamnar I
Tamnar TPS generated 1.1 BU and operated at PLF of 70%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
International coal prices and Coal India’s production/off take Richard Bay, New Castle and HBA index (USD/ton)
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research RB index prices were flat MoM to ~ USD66/ton to almost 4 year lows in the month of Oct’14. New Castle and HBA index also followed a similar trend.
CIL production (mn ton) & growth
CIL production in Oct ’14 stood at 40mton up 15% yoy.In FY15, production during April‐ Sept was up 7% yoy.
CIL off take (mn ton) & growth
CIL off take in Oct ’14 stood at 39mton up 10% yoy. In FY15, during April‐ Oct offtake grew 4% yoy.
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Energy demand and supply
Power demand(MU) and growth
Demand has picked up meaningfully and was up 13% YoY in Sept’14
Base deficit and Peak deficit
Base deficit was up 80bps YoY to 4.3%. The peak deficit was up 110bps YoY at 4.1%
Region wise base deficit
The deficit in Northern region was up 70bps YoY to 7%. In Southern region deficit was up 300bps at 7% due to significant rise in deficit in Telangana. In western India deficit was flat YoY at 1% however deficit in UP stood at 16%.
Power cut on industry
Power cut in industry in Northern region was mainly led by Uttarakhand (140 MW) and UP (700MW). In Southern region, all the states contributed leading to power cuts on industry of 7,347MW.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Short term volumes and prices
Short term volumes (MU) & as % of overall gen Bilateral volumes(MU) and prices
Short term volumes stood at 9BU’s, ~10.5% of total generation
Bilateral volumes were down 12% MoM at 4.8BU and Bilateral prices was up 3% MoM to Rs 4.28/kwh.
UI volumes(MU) and prices
UI volumes were down 2% YoY and UI prices were up 19% MoM to Rs 2.54/kwh.
IEX volumes(MU) and prices
The IEX prices were up 56% YoY to Rs 4.1/kwh in the month of Oct’14 and volumes were down 13% MoM. In Oct’14, IEX prices were up 45% YoY and in Southern region prices were up 63% YoY to Rs5/kwh.
Source: CERC, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Capacity addition
Capacity addition month wise
In Sept ’14 capacity addition stood at 250 MW of thermal capacity
Installed capacity break up as on Sept,’14 – 249GW
All India installed capacity stood at 249GW in Sep ‘14. Coal capacity comprised 60%. We expect contribution of coal based capacity to further improve.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research In Sept ’14 capacity addition stood at 660 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.9 GW, 100% of the targeted capacity. Key capacities commissioned during August include 600 MW Unit 3 of Tiroda by Adani Power.
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21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
21 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
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