Larsen & Toubro Analysis of ~2500 pages of subsidiary annual reports CAPITAL GOODS: Company Update 2 September 2014 PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. With L&T moving to reporting numbers on a consolidated basis (quarterly), it becomes all the more imperative for investors to look at the company at a group level. Our analysis of ~2500 pages of subsidiary annual reports intends to do just that and we highlight key takeaways from our analysis. Losses in Shipbuilding, Special Steel & Forging, and Development projects offset gains from Infotech and Financial Services. Contribution from subsidiaries in FY14 dropped to Rs1bn from Rs8b in FY13. Of the three key manufacturing subsidies namely, L&T Shipbuilding (Katupalli port and yard), L&T Heavy Steel and Forgings and L&T – MHI BTG JV, the first two made losses as a result of underutilized capacity and high fixed costs. L&T Shipbuilding had a loss of Rs6.5bn while the Special Steel & Forging unit reported losses of Rs3.4bn; the power BTG JV made a marginal profit for the year while the developmental projects contributed to Rs2.6bn of losses. These losses were largely offset by profits from the Services business, namely L&T Infotech (Rs6.5bn) and Financial Services (Rs3.2bn). Increase in debt on books (ex finance subs) of Rs83bn primarily from Developmental projects and manufacturing JV’s. Consolidated debt on the books has risen to Rs801bn in FY14 while subsidiary debt (ex finance) stood at Rs330bn (+83bn YoY). The increase in debt is driven by developmental projects (roads, power, and property) and manufacturing JV’s (Power and Special Steel). Consolidated debt: equity (ex finance) at a healthy 1.2x is not yet a cause of concern. Debt would continue to increase on draw down for the Hyderabad Metro, road projects and power development. Consolidated earnings and ROE’s to benefit on higher profits and/or lower losses in subsidiaries from FY16e onwards. In our view, consolidated ROE’s are set to improve from FY16e on a) Better profitability at the Power BTG JV’s as orders won in FY15e‐FY16e are executed, b) Fall in losses in road projects from FY16e as new road projects stabilize while existing projects see an improvement in traffic growth, c) Higher volumes and utilization at the Katupalli Yard, Special Steel and Heavy Forgings unit bring down losses, d) Improvement in profitability of the hydrocarbon subsidiary which has been hit by Rs9bn provisions in Q115. Over the past 6‐7 years, L&T has invested Rs202bn (including loans and advances) in its subsidiaries and with a revival in growth in the domestic market, these subsidiaries are expected to start contributing meaningfully to the group earnings over the next few years. We see ROE’s at the group level improve to 16% in FY16e from the 13% in FY14.We expect contribution from subsidiaries to increase to Rs13bn in FY16e from Rs1bn in FY14. Raise to BUY; increase target price to Rs1, 850: We upgrade the stock to a BUY as we build in higher value for the subsidiaries (Rs490) and apply a target PE of 25x to our core standalone EPS of Rs65 to obtain our target price of Rs1, 850; we believe that L&T is best placed to take advantage of the upcoming recovery in the domestic market while continuing to grow and improve its profitability in the overseas markets in M. East and S.E.Asia. BUY LT IN | CMP RS 1,578 TARGET RS 1,850 (+17%) Company Data O/S SHARES (MN) : 928 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1464 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 24.2 52 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 1774 / 688 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 59.3 FACE VALUE (RS) : 2 Share Holding Pattern, % PROMOTERS : 0.0 FII / NRI : 22.8 FI / MF : 36.5 NON PROMOTER CORP. HOLDINGS : 7.2 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 33.5 Price Performance, % 1mth 3mth 1yr ABS 7.2 ‐4.1 116.9 REL TO BSE 1.7 ‐13.0 74.6 Price Vs. Sensex (Rebased values) 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Jul‐10 Jun‐11May‐12Apr‐13Mar‐14 L&T BSE Sensex Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Capital Research Other Key Ratios Rs mn FY14 FY15E FY16E Net Sales 851,284 942,595 1,143,854 EBITDA 107,543 129,506 161,138 Net Profit 45,680 51,200 69,566 EPS, Rs 49.3 54.7 74.4 PER, X 32.0 28.8 21.2 EV/EBIDTA, x 20.7 17.9 15.0 EV/Net Sales, x 3.9 3.6 3.2 ROE, % 12.1 12.4 15.9 Source: Phillip Capital India Research Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 66679759) [email protected]Hrishikesh Bhagat (+9122 6667 9986) [email protected]
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Larsen & Toubro Analysis of ~2500 pages of subsidiary annual reports
CAPITAL GOODS: Company Update 2 September 2014
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
With L&T moving to reporting numbers on a consolidated basis (quarterly), it becomes all the more imperative for investors to look at the company at a group level. Our analysis of ~2500 pages of subsidiary annual reports intends to do just that and we highlight key takeaways from our analysis. Losses in Shipbuilding, Special Steel & Forging, and Development projects offset gains from Infotech and Financial Services. Contribution from subsidiaries in FY14 dropped to Rs1bn from Rs8b in FY13. Of the three key manufacturing subsidies namely, L&T Shipbuilding (Katupalli port and yard), L&T Heavy Steel and Forgings and L&T – MHI BTG JV, the first two made losses as a result of underutilized capacity and high fixed costs. L&T Shipbuilding had a loss of Rs6.5bn while the Special Steel & Forging unit reported losses of Rs3.4bn; the power BTG JV made a marginal profit for the year while the developmental projects contributed to Rs2.6bn of losses. These losses were largely offset by profits from the Services business, namely L&T Infotech (Rs6.5bn) and Financial Services (Rs3.2bn). Increase in debt on books (ex finance subs) of Rs83bn primarily from Developmental projects and manufacturing JV’s. Consolidated debt on the books has risen to Rs801bn in FY14 while subsidiary debt (ex finance) stood at Rs330bn (+83bn YoY). The increase in debt is driven by developmental projects (roads, power, and property) and manufacturing JV’s (Power and Special Steel). Consolidated debt: equity (ex finance) at a healthy 1.2x is not yet a cause of concern. Debt would continue to increase on draw down for the Hyderabad Metro, road projects and power development. Consolidated earnings and ROE’s to benefit on higher profits and/or lower losses in subsidiaries from FY16e onwards. In our view, consolidated ROE’s are set to improve from FY16e on a) Better profitability at the Power BTG JV’s as orders won in FY15e‐FY16e are executed, b) Fall in losses in road projects from FY16e as new road projects stabilize while existing projects see an improvement in traffic growth, c) Higher volumes and utilization at the Katupalli Yard, Special Steel and Heavy Forgings unit bring down losses, d) Improvement in profitability of the hydrocarbon subsidiary which has been hit by Rs9bn provisions in Q115. Over the past 6‐7 years, L&T has invested Rs202bn (including loans and advances) in its subsidiaries and with a revival in growth in the domestic market, these subsidiaries are expected to start contributing meaningfully to the group earnings over the next few years. We see ROE’s at the group level improve to 16% in FY16e from the 13% in FY14.We expect contribution from subsidiaries to increase to Rs13bn in FY16e from Rs1bn in FY14. Raise to BUY; increase target price to Rs1, 850: We upgrade the stock to a BUY as we build in higher value for the subsidiaries (Rs490) and apply a target PE of 25x to our core standalone EPS of Rs65 to obtain our target price of Rs1, 850; we believe that L&T is best placed to take advantage of the upcoming recovery in the domestic market while continuing to grow and improve its profitability in the overseas markets in M. East and S.E.Asia.
BUY LT IN | CMP RS 1,578 TARGET RS 1,850 (+17%) Company Data O/S SHARES (MN) : 928MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1464MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 24.252 ‐ WK HI/LO (RS) : 1774 / 688LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 59.3FACE VALUE (RS) : 2
Other Key Ratios Rs mn FY14 FY15E FY16ENet Sales 851,284 942,5951,143,854EBITDA 107,543 129,506 161,138Net Profit 45,680 51,200 69,566EPS, Rs 49.3 54.7 74.4PER, X 32.0 28.8 21.2EV/EBIDTA, x 20.7 17.9 15.0EV/Net Sales, x 3.9 3.6 3.2ROE, % 12.1 12.4 15.9Source: Phillip Capital India Research Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 66679759) [email protected] Hrishikesh Bhagat (+9122 6667 9986) [email protected]
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Losses in Shipbuilding, Special Steel & Forging and Development projects offset gains from Infotech and Financial Services Contribution from subsidiaries during FY14 dropped to Rs1bn from Rs8bn in FY13 on increased losses in manufacturing subsidiaries and developmental projects. . Of the three key manufacturing subsidiaries namely, L&T Shipbuilding (Katupalli port and yard), L&T Special Steel and Heavy Forgings and L&T – MHI BTG JV, the first two made losses as a result of underutilized capacity and high fixed costs. L&T Shipbuilding had a loss of Rs6.5bn while the Special Steel & Forging unit reported losses of Rs3.4bn; the power BTG JV made a marginal profit for the year while the developmental projects contributed to Rs2.6bn of losses. Note that key infrastructure subsidiary, L&T Oman was also turned in losses in FY14. These losses were largely offset by profits from the Services business, namely L&T Infotech (Rs6.5bn) and Financial Services (Rs3.2bn). In FY15, we build in PAT contribution from subsidiaries of Rs5.2b but this is after adjusting for Rs11.5bn for the Dhamra stake sale; adjusted for this, PAT loss is expected at Rs6.3bn on higher losses in road and power projects which are getting commissioned during FY15. However, we expect losses in the manufacturing subsidiaries to have peaked in FY14 and gradually get lower over the next few years. The BTG JV is expected to register good profits on the back of improved profitability at the Boiler unit and reduced losses at the TG unit. PAT contribution from subsidiaries – set to improve from FY16 onwards INRm FY13a FY14a FY15e FY16eStandalone PAT (recurring) 41,334 49,047 48,210 60,031PAT for the subsidiaries Power 726 310 1,313 2,808 L&T Shipbuilding (1,965) (6,475) (4,161) (3,443)L&T Special Steel and Heavy Forgings (1,562) (3,345) (3,421) (1,813)Infrastructure (37) (1,184) (853) (652)Electrical and Automation 1,199 1,162 1,279 1,420 Machinery and Industrial Products 561 1,237 1,224 1,355 Hydrocarbon 6,095 113 (7,164) 2,442 Infotech and Technology Services 5,764 6,427 12,362 13,608 Finance 5,369 4,674 6,873 9,017 IDPL (incl. power development) (6,310) (2,615) (1,684) (9,121)Property Development (1,879) 51 210 585 Total 7,960 354 5,977 16,208 PAT from associates 514 300 300 300Total subs + associates 8,474 654 6,277 16,508 Less Minority interest (343) 382 (1,037) (3,175)Contribution from subsidiaries 8,131 1,036 5,240 13,333 Less: Dividend received from subsidiaries (5,850) (8,650) (8,650) (8,650)Intra company adjustment (4,358) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247)Consolidated PAT 47,973 45,680 50,996 69,402
**this includes gain on sale of Dhamra port for Rs11.5bn Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
~45% of Standalone capital employed towards subsidiaries; losses at development projects and manufacturing subsidiaries drag down ROE’s Since FY07, investment in subsidiaries (including loans and advances) has risen from Rs17bn to Rs202bn by the L&T parent. This now constitutes 45% of the standalone balance sheet as the company invested in setting up manufacturing facilities for Shipbuilding, Power BTG JV’s, fabrication yards in Sohar and Hazira as also developing its services and infrastructure (power, roads, metro) business. We note that in FY14, ~34% of the consolidated sales (Rs285bn) and 38% of EBITDA but only 2% of the consolidated PAT was accounted for by the subsidiaries (including the demerged hydrocarbon subsidiary). As the developmental subsidiaries (Power, Roads, Metro, Port) along with the manufacturing subsidiaries (Shipbuilding, Special Steel & Heavy Forgings) are currently making losses, this has lead to depressed ROE’s at the consolidated L&T level which stood at 13% in FY14. Investment in subsidiaries from the standalone balance sheet (Rs mn)
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research We do note that ROE’s are set to improve at a consolidated level on lower losses in the manufacturing JV’s (Power BTG JV, Shipbuilding, Special Steel) from FY15 while we expect lower losses in the road projects from FY16e as new road projects stabilize and profitability improves in the same. Consolidated ROE’s to improve on better performance of subsidiaries
2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
SOTP valuation for L&T Particulars Stake Basis of valuation Implied value
(INRmn) INR/share Multiple (x)
L&T Standalone PE (ex dividend from subs) 1,284,530 1,373 25Key Subsidiaries L&T Infotech and Technology Services 100% 12x FY16E PE and 20% holdco discount 130,641 140 12L&T Financial Services 75% On current market price and 20% holdco discount 72,056 77 L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering 100% On 15x mutiple for lower margins 24,734 26 15Power Subsidiaries Power equipment JV with Mitsubishi 51% 15x FY16e EPS 20,296 22 15Infrastructure SPV L&T IDPL 98% BV 88,153 94 2x PBL&T Shipbuilding 100% At 1x Book Value 10,638 11 1x PBL&T Realty 100% At 1x Book Value 1,980 2 Other Subsidiaries At 1x Book Value 47,569 51 1Associates 2.0x P/B 137 0 2Cash balance 58,291 62 1Total 1,668,317 1,850
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Debt rises on account of draw down in developmental projects, Power Eqt. JV’s and L&T Special steel Increase in the debt of subsidiaries (ex finance subsidiaries) of Rs83bn in FY14 is primarily on account of further draw dawn of debt in road projects (Rs140bn, +18bn YoY), Power development (+17bn), Property development(Rs35bn, +2bn YoY), Power equipment JV’s (Rs29bn, +6bn) and hydrocarbons(Rs12bn). We expect debt to increase by ~Rs67bn in FY15 primarily due to draw dawn for the Hyderabad metro project alongside other road projects. We do note that ex the finance subsidiaries, debt: equity ratio remains at a comfortable 1.2x albeit higher than the 1x in FY13 and 0.6x in FY10. Debt (Rs mn) FY13a FY14a FY15e FY16eSA debt 88,342 114,589 134,589 146,089Road Projects 121,597 139,378 144,783 141,677Power Development 41,604 58,421 72,000 67,200 Hyderabad Metro 29,952 25,717 73,216 99,840 Property Development 32,631 34,485 34,985 35,485Power Equipment JV's 23,186 28,573 30,073 31,573L&T Shipbuilding 27,537 33,648 38,648 38,648L&T Special Steel and Heavy Forgings 12,322 14,741 15,741 15,741 Dhamra Port 7,478 7,478 ‐ ‐Hydrocarbons 890 12,030 12,030 12,030 Subtotal (ex finance subs) 334,573 443,923 530,929 563,147 Finance subsidiaries 285,363 357,606 381,107 404,607 Debt on the consolidated balance sheet 619,936 801,529 912,036 967,754
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Information Technology – Strong growth continues; Engineering services businesses merged with a potential listing in FY17 alongside L&T Infotech FY14 was another strong year for the company with sales growing to Rs64bn (+28% YoY) with growth being contributed from both L&T Infotech (Rs46bn, +30% YoY) and Integrated Engineering Services (Rs.16bn, +28% YoY) seeing robust growth in sales. PAT stood at Rs9bn (+4% YoY). We note that during FY14, the IES business was demerged from the standalone parent entity and merged with the Product Engineering Services business (which in turn was demerged from L&T InfoTech). The merged entity which is called L&T Technology Services has been done with a view to consolidating the engineering services business of the company into one arm to cater to the Industrial, medical, telecom, transportation and process end markets. It also offers solutions in mechanical engineering services, embedded systems and product lifecycle management. It is primarily in the engineering services outsourcing space with 98% of its revenues from exports. L&T Infotech recorded sales of Rs46bn, an EBITDA of Rs11bn (+32% YoY) and PAT of Rs9bn, +61% YoY (includes Rs2.5bn on sale of PES to L&T TS, excl. the gain PAT was up 10% YoY). Note that there was a forex loss of Rs1bn which negatively impacted profitability during the year.
Vertical wise breakup of revenues (FY14) Geography wise breakup of revenue(FY14)
Industrial, 49%
Telecom, 8%
Services, 44%
N. America, 64.6
Europe , 19.6
Asia Pacific, 4.6
India, 4.8RoW, 6.4
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Management has cited that it is looking for an IPO for L&T Infotech and Engineering Services arm (L&T Technology Services in FY17) and in our view, this is in line with management’s strategy to unlock value for share holders in the company. L&T Infotech and Technology services(Rs mn) FY14 FY15e FY16eSales 63,537 76,851 89,893 YoY Growth (%) 27% 21% 17%EBITDA 14,590 18,167 19,909 margin % 23.0% 23.6% 22.1%Depreciation (683) (717) (753)Other Income (811) 200 200 EBIT 13,096 17,650 19,356 Interest cost 298 298 298PBT 12,798 17,352 19,058 Tax (3,878) (4,989) (5,450)Rate (%) 30% 29% 29%PAT 8,920 12,362 13,608
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
L&T Financial Services – reasonable show in a constrained environment The Financial Services primarily operates in the retail and corporate finance, housing finance, infrastructure finance, investment and wealth management business which are all housed under L&T Finance Holdings, the holding company for the group’s venture into finance. The General insurance business is housed under L&T General Insurance which a 100% is owned subsidiary of L&T. The chart below highlights the key area of operations for L&T Finance Holdings along with the legal entities participating in these end markets. During the year, L&T sold its stake in L&T Finance Holdings to bring it down to 75% (earlier 84%) to meet the minimum public shareholding norms as mandated by SEBI.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
The overall loan book for the company has grown to Rs400bn with 22% in mid market finance, 34% in retail and the balance 44% in Wholesale finance.
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
Retail and mid market Finance (L&T Finance, Family Credit, Housing Finance) L&T Finance has exited the car financing business during the year with an increased focus towards the B2B segments such as construction equipment, commercial vehicles and corporate lending. EBITDA margins during FY14 fall 220bps YoY on higher provisioning for loans advanced to certain sectors (Rs405mn). If not for this provision, margins would have sustained at ~17% for FY14. L&T Finance (Rs mn) FY13 FY14a FY15e FY16eSales 20,472 21,998 25,589 29,427 % chg 15% 7% 16% 15%Interest expenses (12,042) (12,729) (16,766) (19,280)EBITDA 3,530 3,290 5,493 6,817 margin % 17.2% 15.0% 21.5% 23.2%OI 209 457 200 200 Depreciation (604) (700) (734) (771)Tax (1,024) (1,036) (1,570) (1,995)PAT 2,111 2,012 3,389 4,251
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Wholesale Finance This segment faced a challenging time in FY14 in terms of corporate defaults as a result of tight liquidity and corporate opting for CDR. While sales grew as a result of the higher loan book, profitability was lower on higher provisions and contingencies provided during the year. Provisions provided during the year doubled to Rs1.44bn vs. Rs0.74bn in FY13 resulting in margins falling to 18% (29% in FY14). L&T Infra Finance (Rs mn) FY13 FY14a FY15e FY16eSales 15,915 17,948 21,884 25,500 YoY Growth(%) 35% 13% 22% 17%Interest (9,784) (12,338) (14,393) (16,167)EBITDA 4,633 3,239 4,161 6,002 margin % 29.1% 18.0% 19.0% 23.5%Depreciation (18) (19) (20) (21)Other Income 83 752 752 752 Tax (1,257) (1,051) (1,367) (1,974)PAT 3,441 2,921 3,526 4,759
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
L&T General Insurance In its third year of business, the general insurance business the company achieved Rs2.7bn of gross premiums and net of Rs1.8bn. In terms of end market, motor insurance is the highest with 52% share followed by heath and other commercial LOB’s accounting for the rest. PAT during the year was Rs ‐1bn vs. Rs ‐0.9bn in FY13. Note that the company has called off its proposed merger with Future Generalli Insurance and has chosen to focus on the insurance market in its own capacity. L&T Financial Services results (incl. General Insurance) (Rs mn) Finance Subs and Associate total FY12a FY13a FY14a FY15e FY16eSales 33,038 43,192 52,050 59,920 68,382 YoY growth 56 31 21 15 14 EBITDA 8,638 8,532 6,381 9,393 12,513 Margins(%) 26% 20% 12% 16% 18%Depreciation (2,097) (759) (996) (1,046) (1,098)OI 205 314 1,677 1,420 1,420 EBIT 6,747 8,087 7,062 9,767 12,835 EBIT margin 20 19 14 16 19 PAT 4,326 5,369 4,674 6,873 9,017
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Power Equipment JV’s – order flow remains weak but we expect a strong pickup going into FY15 – FY16 With a continued slowdown being faced in the BTG market in India, the L&T – MHI have not been able to book any significant orders during FY14. Management has cited that the company is looking at overseas markets in M. East, S.E.Asia for orders. We expect the orders to pick up from FY15 onwards driven by NTPC and state owned gencos with a further pick up from FY16 onwards from the award of UMPP’s in Orissa and Tamil Nadu for which equipment has to compulsorily be sourced from the domestic manufacturers. L&T – MHI Boilers Private Limited Sales for FY14 fell 47% to Rs13bn as a result of a lower order book and no significant order being received during the year by the company. Only Rs90mn of new orders were booked as power projects continue to get deferred/stalled on account of non availability of coal and low demand from SEB’s. We do note a sharp improvement in gross margins to 28%; this is still low compared to the ~40‐42% gross margins which BHEL has reported historically. EBITDA margins expanded to 18.4%, almost double of FY13 levels helped by higher gross margins and forex gains/derivative gains (Rs231m in total); adjusted for these one offs, EBITDA margins at 17% are still creditable. The company delivered and commissioned its first 700MW super critical boiler at Nabha Power during the year. The closing order book stood at Rs77bn as of Mar, 14. We expect orders to be booked during the year to improve substantially with orders from MP Genco (1320MW), NTPC Tanda boilers(1320MW) and at least one more NTPC order being booked by the company. We expect ~15‐18GW of orders could be placed over the coming next 2 years (including at least one UMPP) where L&T has a very good chance of winning new orders ; quite a few of these orders are on EPC basis where only L&T and BHEL can bid to qualify. L&T‐ MHI Boiler JV (Rs mn) FY13a FY14a FY15e FY16eRevenues 23,598 12,549 21,994 27,024 YoY Growth (%) ‐4% ‐47% 75% 23%Gross Profit 3,570 3,568 6,253 7,684 Margin (%) 15% 28% 28% 28%Other operating expenditure (1,318) (1,258) (2,645) (3,250)% of sales 6% 10% 10% 12%EBITDA 2,252 2,310 3,608 4,433 Margins % 9.5% 18.4% 16.4% 16.4%Interest (304) (429) (429) (429)Depreciation (314) (330) (330) (330)PBT 1,634 1,550 2,849 3,674 Tax (219) (549) (549) (549)PAT 1,415 1,002 2,300 3,125
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research L&T MHI Turbines Private Limited In FY14, new power projects continued to get deferred and/or completely shelved on lack of coal and lack of demand which has resulted in no major order getting booked during the year. Sales fell 25% YoY to Rs7.5bn on account of a lower starting order book combined with no major order being booked during the year. Gross margins expanded to 26% (15% in FY15) while EBITDA margins also rose to 11% on account of the lower raw material costs. Management has cited various initiatives which have been taken during the year to bring down costs including better supply chain management and cost reduction initiatives. As mentioned before, we expect orders to improve substantially during the year; the company should be able to book orders for MP Genco(1320MW),
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Infrastructure subsidiaries – EBITDA loss at key overseas subsidiary The biggest infrastructure subsidiary is L&T Oman which operates across the verticals of Power, T&D, Water, Metro, Civil Infra and Building & Factories. This is a JV with Zubair Corporation; L&T International FZE holds a 65% stake in this JV. The JV secured orders worth Rs35bn during the year including a major order for construction of Sultan Qaboos Youth complex in Salalah, Oman along with an order for 132kv substation at Al‐Amrat. Sales were at Rs22.6bn (+13% YoY) in FY14; however, EBITDA at Rs‐0.3bn (‐1% margins) was hit by higher construction costs. PAT at Rs‐0.8bn vs. Rs0.15bn inFY13. L&T Oman LLC (Rs mn) Description FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16eRevenues 19,952 22,575 23,704 24,889 YoY Growth(%) ‐3% 13% 5% 5%EBITDA 555 ‐283 (60) 186 margin(%) 3% -1% ‐0.3% 0.7%Depreciation 319 425 446 468Int 72 104 104 104PBT 172 ‐798 ‐596 ‐372PAT 148 (794) (507) (317)
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research The other subsidiaries which are part of the infrastructure vertical include L&T Saudi Arabia and L&T Hitech Products.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
L&T Special steel and Heavy forgings – high losses in first full year of operation; expect to decline L&T Special Steel & forgings is a JV between L&T and Nuclear Power Corporation of India with L&T Holding a 74% stake. This JV was set up at Hazira with the aim to supply heavy forgings for use in the nuclear power, hydrocarbons, fertilizers, power and general engineering applications. The facility has been set up with a cost of Rs19bn of which Rs12bn is the debt invested. The facility has a capacity to manufacture 0.1mn TPA of special steel and 40,000TPA of heavy forgings. A technology transfer up has also been done during the year with Japan Steel Works for melting and heavy forging made from steel ingots of upto 200tons which is another new opportunity for the unit. The facility began operations in FY13 and has recorded sales of Rs700mn and PAT of Rs‐3.3bn in its first full year of operations in FY14. In an environment of intense competition from foreign players alongside a depressed market environment for nuclear equipment (pos the Fukushima nuclear accident), the unit remains highly underutilized at just 10% capacity utilization. As per our estimates, it would need to do sales of Rs5‐6bn to breakeven as it has fixed costs of Rs2‐2.3bn and EBITDA margins of 35‐40%. At full capacity, this unit can do sales of Rs14‐15bn. We expect FY15 losses to remain at the same level as in FY14 but expect it to start coming down from FY16 onwards as orders won in FY15 are executed and contribute to sales in FY16. We note that more equity funding may be needed to be infused into the business since its net worth would turn negative post continued losses in FY14 – FY16. As per management commentary in the Annual report, new orders are expected to flow from investments and upgrades in the hydrocarbon space in USA, M. East and S.E.Asian markets. These are driven by availability of shale gas, clean fuel imports, GTL requirements and petrochemical requirements. Domestic fertilizer investments and nuclear projects are expected to be tendered as well in FY15; key nuclear power opportunities relate to the NPCIL Hissar plant reactors (700MW*4) and Phase II of the Kudankulam plant in Tamil Nadu . Key subsidiaries which form part of the Heavy Engineering are Heavy Steel and Forgings along with Heavy Engineering LLC. Financials of Heavy Engineering subsidiaries (Rs mn) Heavy Engineering segment FY13e Fy14e FY15e FY16eSales 1,651 2,634 4,684 6,403 YoY Growth (%) 60% 78% 37%EBIDTA (420) (988) (884) 832 Margin(%) ‐25.4% ‐37.5% ‐18.9% 13.0%Depreciation (601) (920) (884) (848)EBIT (1,021) (1,908) (1,768) (16)Margin(%) ‐61.8% ‐72.4% ‐37.7% ‐0.3%PAT (1,588) (3,377) (3,434) (1,805)
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Process flow in Heavy Forgings
L&T Shipbuilding – sharp losses on under utilization and slow ramp up of port operations L&T Shipbuilding operates the Katupalli shipyard and port at Katupalli, 40kms from Chennai in Tamil Nadu and FY14 was the first full year of commercial operation. Note that the Hazira Shipyard builds vessels which are part of the standalone L&T revenues. An investment of Rs40bn has been made into this project with L&T holding a 97% stake while the balance is held with TIDCO. L&T Shipbuilding has entered into a technical collaboration with MHI for design and construction of commercial ships. Sales stood at Rs5.3bn during FY14 while EBITDA was Rs‐2bn; loss due to high operating costs amidst an under utilization of the port and yard. PAT loss was at Rs6.5bn. It has fixed costs of Rs4.5bn every year and would need sales of Rs20bn to break even (~25% blended EBITDA margins). Katupalli Shipyard The Katupalli Shipyard had an order book of ~Rs20bn as of FY14 end and is geared to manufacture commercial as also naval ships. During the year, company bagged orders worth Rs9.4bn for four platform supply vessels and two anchor Handling vessels. During the year, the company delivered its first export vessel to Halul Offshore Services, which is amongst the first of four to be delivered to the company (total order value at Rs5bn) With the commercial shipping market expected to remain in a downturn for another two years, order prospects from this segment continue to remain bleak. However, with the technology tie up with Mitsubishi Heavy the company is looking to bag orders for LNG carriers, ethane carriers and other specialized offshore vessels. With the shoreline in Katupalli, medium sized vessels up to 200metres can be built at this yard. The focus is to get orders from domestic shipping companies for such commercial vessels.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Management is more optimistic of winning orders from the defence segment post the new defence procurement policy being announced in 2013 where indigenous construction of ships has been given focus. Management has cited that 2 landing platform Dock (LPD’s) have been tendered to the domestic private yards which is a large opportunity (Rs40bn each); these would have to be built over a period of 3‐4 years while anather 2 would be build by Hindustan Shipyard Limited. Management also expects to bag orders for naval vessels (interceptor boats, patrol boats, naval ships) during 2H15 which would help improve utilizations and profitability at the yard. Katupalli Port The Katupalli port (1.2mn ton capacity) which has its first full year operation after commissioning in Feb, ’13 has been facing stiff competition from the nearby Chennai port which is offering steep discount to retain its customers and avoid them from shifting to Katupalli port. Also, because of certain customs issues, the container station attached to Chennai Port cannot trade with Katupalli port and hence traffic cannot be diverted here. Plus, there is an over capacity for container terminals on the east coast of the country resulting in low utilization. We note that recently ICCTS which was the port operator has also mutually agreed to terminate the agreement with L&T Katupalli port and that the company is looking to appoint a new operator for the port. L&T Shipbuilding Consolidated financials (Rs mn) Description FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16eRevenues 1,048 5,326 7,351 10,467 Other expenses (1,898) (7,376) (6,306) (8,219)EBITDA (850) (2,050) 1,045 2,249 Magins(%) ‐81% ‐38% 14% 22%Other income 116 129 16 19Interest expense ‐676 ‐2,772 ‐3,701 ‐4,251Depreciation ‐555 ‐1,791 ‐1,520 ‐1,459PBT (1,965) (6,484) (4,161) (3,443)Net PAT (1,965) (6,475) (4,161) (3,443)
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research
Hydrocarbons – cost escalations and provisions hurt FY14 profitability; continues into Q115 During FY14, the hydrocarbon entity which was part of the standalone L&T was demerged into a fully owned subsidiary. The idea behind the demerger was to provide this entity with greater autonomy, an independent decision making board and a potential listing in the future. We do note that margins in this segment have deteriorated meaningfully during FY14 to 3% on cost overrun in tightly bid international projects; most of these projects were first of its kind being executed by L&T with respect to size, scale and technical complexity, increase in local wages and localization, specification changes, stringent QA/QC and underutilization of yards. Margins further deteriorated in Q115 with L&T taking a provision of Rs9bn during Q115 for 10 projects worth Rs100bn where cost overruns were faced. Of the Rs100bn projects, Rs50b have been executed while provisions for further cost increases have been taken for the remaining Rs50bn worth projects which implies zero margins for these projects as they are executed over the next 12 months. We see margins reverting back to 5‐% starting from FY16 onwards. Management had cited that it has learned from these projects and that it had under estimated the costs which would have to be incurred in these projects.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research We show below the financials of the key Hydrocarbon subsidiary which had been demerged from the parent in FY14. Financials of L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering Limited (demerged from L&T parent inFY14) (Rs mn) Hydrocarbon Engineering Limited FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16Revenues 95,400 87,159 54,279 84,569 YoY Growth (%) #DIV/0! ‐9% ‐38% 56%EBITDA 9,630 3,050 (9,200) 4,228 Margin (%) 10.1% 3.5% ‐16.9% 5.0%Depreciation (912) (1,001) (1,101) (1,211)EBIT 8,718 2,049 (10,301) 3,018 Interest expense (929) (420) (441) (463)PBT 7,789 1,638 (10,741) 2,555 Tax (2,527) (581) 3,810 (906)Tax rate (%) 32.4% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5%PAT 5,262 1,057 (6,932) 1,649 Margin(%) 5.5% 1.2% ‐12.8% 1.9%
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research Key subsidiaries which are part of this segment include L&T Modular Fabrication Yard(Sohar, Oman), L&T ELectromech, L&T Sapura Shipping and L&T Valdel (design and engineering services in O&G sector). We present summarized P/L’s of these subsidiaries below: L&T Valdel (Rs mn)
Road assets profitability hit by higher periodic maintenance and power charges; offset by lower depreciation L&T’s road assets are housed under its holding company, L&T Infrastructure Development Private Limited. It currently has eleven operational projects with another four projects currently under implementation. We note that two road projects relating to Amravati‐ Jalgaon and Jalgaon – Maharastra/Gujarat border are stalled on non availability of land/clearances from NHAI – no work has been done on these as NHAI has still not provided the appointed date; these have already been taken out of the order book of the L&T E&C division. L&T Deccan Tollways which is doing the 4‐6 laning for the Sangareddy – Maharastra/Karnatatka border is also awaiting the approval of its premium rescheduling only after which construction work on this project is expected to begin. Total toll collections in FY14 from operational road projects stood at Rs11.4bn (+7% YoY) on account of full year revenues from 3 new projects which started tolling in FY13 (these are all based in Gujarat which started tolling but we note that management has stated that toll collections have been lower than expectations) and start of a 4th road project. EBITDA at Rs7.4bn (‐11% YoY, 65% margin) was however lower on account of periodic project maintenance and power charges. As a result of the change in the depreciation method, profitability improved by Rs4bn in FY14. We expect toll revenues to grow by 34% in FY15 to Rs15.2bn driven by the start of four new road projects. EBITDA is seen improving to Rs9bn (59% margin) while losses are expected to increase to Rs11bn; rise in losses on commissioning of four new road assets which would start to stabilize from FY15 onwards and we see losses start to reduce from thereon.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Portfolio of road asset in L&T IDPL(Rs mn) Major SPVs _______Revenue (Rs mn) _______ _________EBITDA (Rs mn) _________ _________PAT (Rs mn) _________
L&T Realty – Strong growth during FY14; to continue in FY15 The Realty business clocked Rs13bn of sales in FY14 which included Rs5.5bn in the standalone entity and the balance Rs7.5bn in the subsidiaries. We note that L&T Realty is the key holding company for L&T’s foray into realty projects which in turn has made investments in various subsidiaries / LLP’s. Some of the key projects currently being developed include Crescent Bay Parel, Emerald Isle, Powai, Eden Park, Chennai, Seawoods, Navi Mumbai, Elante Mall, Chandigarh, South City, Chennai. As per media reports, L&T Realty has 35mn sq ft of area currently being developed across India and is focused in the cities of Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune and Chennai. During the year, L&T Realty sold stakes in L&T Chennai Projects and Bangalore International Airport. It is also looking to divest stakes in L&T Tejomaya and L&T Tech Park (see financials below) and expects to complete this transaction by Q115. We note that the growth in FY14 sales has primarily been on account of a doubling of sales in CSJ Infrastructure which started operation of its retail mall and office buildings in Chandigarh with 50% of the office being sold while 97% of the mall has been leased out. L&T South City has started development of its Phase II flats in Chennai and intends to develop ~5mn square feet over the next 5 years.
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2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
Machinery and Industrial products – full consolidation of L&T Construction and Audco helps sales and profitability Revenues and profitability in the MIP division were helped by consolidation of L&T Valves (earlier Audco Limited) and L&T Construction Equipment (earlier L&T Komatsu JV) which have both now become 100% owned subsidiaries of L&T. Overall sales for the subsidiaries stood at Rs18.4bn(+70% YoY) while was at Rs1.2bn in FY14. L&T Construction Equipment (Rs mn) Description FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16Revenues 11,889 5,100 5,610 6,171 YoY Growth(%) ‐26% ‐57% 10% 10%EBITDA 92 285 370 469 margin(%) 1% 6% 7% 8%Interest and Depreciation (124) (124) (124)PBT (28) 161 246 345 Tax ‐46 (70) (99)PAT (28) 115 176 246 YoY Growth(%) ‐157% ‐508% 52% 40%Margin(%) ‐0.2% 2.3% 3.1% 4.0%
Source: Company, Phillip Capital India Research L&T Valves Limited (Rs mn)
2 September 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / L&T COMPANY UPDATE
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