Paul C Stern: Environmentally significant behaviour and how to change it

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Environmentally Environmentally Significant Behaviour Significant Behaviour and How to Change itand How to Change it

Paul C. Stern, Paul C. Stern, Director, Committee on the Human Dimensions Director, Committee on the Human Dimensions

of Global Changeof Global ChangeNational Research Council, USANational Research Council, USA

Keynote Address to the National Congress Keynote Address to the National Congress on Behaviour Change for Sustainability on Behaviour Change for Sustainability

Sydney, AustraliaSydney, Australia11 October 201011 October 2010

The Policy Context:Waiting for Central

Government Will the central government take the

lead? USA and Australia situations

What to do if it can’t or won’t? Personal, organizational, community,

and business initiatives How can central government be moved?

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Which Behaviours Promote Which Behaviours Promote Sustainability?Sustainability?

First: Avoid endless arguments over First: Avoid endless arguments over definitions of sustainability definitions of sustainability

My focus:My focus: The The environmental environmental aspect of sustainabilityaspect of sustainability the process of the process of transitiontransition

Why transition is a useful focusWhy transition is a useful focus We can know which direction to go without We can know which direction to go without

knowing the end pointknowing the end point The challenge is to get movement The challenge is to get movement

The goal is to change environmentally The goal is to change environmentally significant behavioursignificant behaviour

What is Environmentally Significant Behaviour?

1. Environmental activism (and oppositionism)2. Support for (or opposition to) environmental

movement/sustainability goals and policies3. Household consumer behaviour: purchase,

maintenance, use of goods and services)4. Organizational behaviour (use of energy

and materials, influences on suppliers, clients)

5. Community action (places, professions, etc.)All are important.

Where can action take place?

Where you are (your home, organization)

At community level Influencing government units

Why isn’t there more sustainable behaviour?

EXPLANATION #1: Financial incentives (the case of energy use)

“You need to get the prices right.”Financial incentives are important, but… Price increases are a blunt instrument (can Price increases are a blunt instrument (can

produce suffering instead of investment)produce suffering instead of investment) Positive financial incentives may be Positive financial incentives may be

necessary to promote adoption of costly necessary to promote adoption of costly equipmentequipment

But the research shows they are not But the research shows they are not sufficient:sufficient: A persistent energy efficiency gapA persistent energy efficiency gap Incentives are often less effective than expected Incentives are often less effective than expected Their effects are highly variable (price elasticity Their effects are highly variable (price elasticity

does not have a fixed value)does not have a fixed value)

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A classic example--Results of offering A classic example--Results of offering almost-free home retrofits in the Bonneville almost-free home retrofits in the Bonneville Interim Weatherization Program, Oregon, Interim Weatherization Program, Oregon,

USA, 1982USA, 1982UtilityUtility Audits/home Weatherized/audit Audits/home Weatherized/audit

Weatherized/homeWeatherized/homeA 11.8 61.0 7.3A 11.8 61.0 7.3B 14.2 82.9 11.8B 14.2 82.9 11.8C 23.2 57.9 13.3C 23.2 57.9 13.3D 23.1 83.4 19.3D 23.1 83.4 19.3E 1.6 90.9 1.4E 1.6 90.9 1.4F 12.1 83.7 10.2F 12.1 83.7 10.2G 2.4 77.1 1.9G 2.4 77.1 1.9

Average 9.1 59.6 5.3Average 9.1 59.6 5.3Highest/lowest 14.5:1 1.6:1 13.8:1Highest/lowest 14.5:1 1.6:1 13.8:1

Units: % of eligible homes/yr of programUnits: % of eligible homes/yr of programSource: Lerman and Bronfman (1984)Source: Lerman and Bronfman (1984)

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Lessons from Incentive ProgramsLessons from Incentive Programs Non-financial factors explain a lot about why incentives have Non-financial factors explain a lot about why incentives have

such weak and variable effectssuch weak and variable effects Money is a major influence on adopting energy-efficient Money is a major influence on adopting energy-efficient

equipment. But other barriers are very importantequipment. But other barriers are very important Consumers rarely compare energy efficiency with other Consumers rarely compare energy efficiency with other

financial investments on an equal footing (true even of financial investments on an equal footing (true even of companies)companies)

Cost minimization is but one of many motivesCost minimization is but one of many motives Cognitive effort is a major barrier to changeCognitive effort is a major barrier to change Inertia is a barrier to change (habit, routine, SOP)Inertia is a barrier to change (habit, routine, SOP)

Lessons:Lessons:

Reducing non-financial barriers to action has great Reducing non-financial barriers to action has great potential even with current incentivespotential even with current incentives

These efforts are likely to do even more with stronger These efforts are likely to do even more with stronger incentivesincentives

A strategy for increasing sustainable behaviour

whatever the incentive struture

Identify the target behaviours and actors

Identify the barriers to change--especially those you can affect

Address the barriers Engage the community

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Identify high-impact target Identify high-impact target behavioursbehaviours

A behavioural analysis A behavioural analysis I = tpnI = tpn I: Environmental impactI: Environmental impact t: Technical potential (if all who could act did so)t: Technical potential (if all who could act did so) p: Behavioral plasticity (proportion who could be p: Behavioral plasticity (proportion who could be

induced to act)induced to act) n: Number of people who could actn: Number of people who could act

Focus first on behaviors with high Focus first on behaviors with high IIThen focus on increasing Then focus on increasing pp

Picking target behaviours

People are often mistaken about which behaviours have greatest impact Overemphasis on visible, frequent behaviuors Underemphasis on equipment choice and

maintenance Need for “short lists” of high-impact

actions Develop one for your target actorsBOTTOM LINE: Research the potential

behavioural targets

Percentage of current total U.S. individual/household energy consumption potentially

saved, low-cost/no-cost actions (Source: Gardner and Stern, 2008)

Energy saved (percent) for all individuals and households Transportation1. Carpool to work with one other person Up to 4.22. Get frequent tune-ups, including air filterchanges 3.93. Alter driving (avoid sudden acceleration and stops) Up to 3.24. Combine errand trips to one-half current mileage Up to 2.75. Cut highway speed from 70 to 60 mph Up to 2.46. Maintain correct tire pressure 1.2Potential savings subtotal Up to 17.6

Inside the home1. Lighting: Replace 85 percent of all incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent bulb

4.02. Space conditioning: Heat: Turn down thermostat from 72° F to 68° F

during the day and to 65° F at night; A/C: Turn up thermostat from 73° F to 78° F 3.4

3. Clothes washing: Use only warm (or cold) wash, cold rinse setting1.2

Potential savings subtotal 8.6Potential savings subtotal for nine actions listed Up to

26.2

Percentage of current total U.S. individual/household energy consumption potentially

saved, longer-term, higher-cost actions (Source: Gardner and Stern, 2008)

Energy saved (percent) for all individuals and households Transportation1. Buy low-rolling resistance tires 1.52. Buy a more fuel-efficient automobile (30.7 vs. 20 mpg EPA

average-adjusted composite) 13.5Potential savings subtotal 15.0

Inside the home1. Space conditioning: Caulk/weather-strip home Up to 2.52. Space conditioning: Install/upgrade attic insulation and ventilation Up to 7.03. Space conditioning: Install more efficient heating unit (92 percent efficiency) 2.94. Space conditioning: Install more efficient A/C unit (SEER 13 or EER 12 units) 2.25. Refrigeration/freezing: Install a more efficient unit (replace older 19–21.4

cubic foot top-freezer unit with a new Energy Star unit) 1.96. Water heating: Install a more efficient water heater (EFS .7 unit) 1.5Potential savings subtotal 18.0

Identifying nonfinancial barriers to change: household behaviours

Motivation and beliefs (values, intentions, etc.)

**External context (e.g., financial costs, interpersonal influences, physical difficulty, broad social and economic context)

Personal capabilities and constraints (e.g., knowledge, time, attention)

**Cognitive effort Habit or routine

** Important and under-appreciated

Identifying nonfinancial barriers to change: organizational

behaviours Leadership (leaders’ motives and beliefs) Mission definition (“core activities”) External context (e.g., financial costs,

regulatory constraints, industry expectations, physical difficulty)

Capabilities of people and units) Information and transaction costs SOPs of organizational units (e.g., separate

accounts, “hurdle rates”)

Which factors are most important?

Single factors rarely account for behaviour The most important influences are not the

same for all behaviours Finding the most important influences and

barriers to change requires research The strongest influences are often

contextual The most effective interventions are based

on understanding the full range of causes for the target behaviour, and barriers to change

BOTTOM LINE: Research the target actors

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Addressing the Barriers:Addressing the Barriers:A Strategy for Interventions with A Strategy for Interventions with

HouseholdsHouseholds Understand behavior from the household’s Understand behavior from the household’s

perspectiveperspective and do not presume motives or abilitiesand do not presume motives or abilities

Recognize that household Recognize that household behavior is often constrained behavior is often constrained by factors beyond the household’s controlby factors beyond the household’s control (e.g., the (e.g., the practices of repair personnel, manufacturers, wholesalers)practices of repair personnel, manufacturers, wholesalers)

Address multiple barriersAddress multiple barriers to behavioural change to behavioural change

Tailor interventionTailor intervention to suit the target action to suit the target action

Combine influence techniquesCombine influence techniques (information, marketing, (information, marketing, financial incentives, etc.)financial incentives, etc.)

Monitor programs continuallyMonitor programs continually to be able to adjust them to be able to adjust them as neededas needed

Design principles for effective household-targeted programs

Source: Stern et al., Env. Sci. & Technol., 2010, 44, 4847-4848

Prioritize high-impact actions Provide sufficient financial incentives Strongly market the program Provide valid information from credible

sources at the points of decision Keep it simple (few hurdles to jump) Provide quality assurance (e.g.,

contractor certification, inspection)

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Addressing the Barriers:Addressing the Barriers:Interventions with OrganizationsInterventions with Organizations

Understand behavior from the organization’s perspectiveUnderstand behavior from the organization’s perspective and do not presume motives or abilitiesand do not presume motives or abilities

Look for Look for external constraintsexternal constraints (e.g., regulatory constraints, (e.g., regulatory constraints, expectations of suppliers, clients/customers)expectations of suppliers, clients/customers)

Look for Look for organizational factorsorganizational factors (SOPs, accounting (SOPs, accounting rules, split responsibilities)rules, split responsibilities)

Address multiple barriersAddress multiple barriers to behavioural change to behavioural change

Tailor interventionTailor intervention to suit the target action to suit the target action

Combine influence techniquesCombine influence techniques (information, marketing, financial (information, marketing, financial incentives, etc.)incentives, etc.)

Monitor programs continuallyMonitor programs continually to be able to adjust them as to be able to adjust them as neededneeded

Design principles for organizational change programs (a

guess) Prioritize high-impact actions Provide valid, actionable information

from credible sources (internal, peer organizations)

Identify new routines or accounting systems

Keep it simple (few hurdles to jump)

It’s not easy being green

Policy facilitation is critical: Overcoming cognitive

burdens Providing quality assurance Developing trustworthy

information

But one need not wait for the central government

Opportunities for other actors

Reducing cognitive effort Develop short lists for target

groups/organizations Get credible information sources to offer

information at points of action Provide services to offer and validate tailored

information Reduce burden of quality assurance

Create new SOPs Accounting systems in organizations

Engaging communities

Dialogues to develop short lists can disseminate credible information

Dialogues to identify barriers can generate pressure to reduce them

Dialogues across communities (units in an organization; organizations in an industry or agency; localities in a region)

Dialogues about fundamental change

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Other important targets for behavioural Other important targets for behavioural changechange

IndirectIndirect energy use (food, non-energy energy use (food, non-energy goods and services, green energy, etc.)goods and services, green energy, etc.)

Behaviourally sensitive infrastructureBehaviourally sensitive infrastructure Human factors design of energy efficiency and Human factors design of energy efficiency and

information technology (smart meters, home information technology (smart meters, home equipment controls, etc.)equipment controls, etc.)

Design of low-energy buildings and Design of low-energy buildings and communities for attractiveness communities for attractiveness

Developing user-friendly accounting systems Developing user-friendly accounting systems (footprints, calculators, energy-cost of (footprints, calculators, energy-cost of occupancy for homes) occupancy for homes)

Analysis of drivers of consumption, Analysis of drivers of consumption, “lifestyle”“lifestyle”

Changing lifestyles

Changing behaviours one by one may not be enough

Lifestyles are patterns of behaviour (travel, eating, accumulation of possessions, etc.)

Change isn’t easy and needs support Infrastructure (public transit, bike lanes, etc.) Labor issues (reducing need for “labor-saving

devices”) Social norms (other people’s expectations) Information (e.g., better footprint calculators)

How do we get support for changing lifestyles?

Lifestyle change generally happens in communities (towns, workplaces, universities, etc.) Changing norms Supportive local policies

Possible role of community or national conversations

Thank you!

I hope this will stimulate further discussion!

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Some references, contact informationSome references, contact informationP.C. Stern, Environmentally significant behavior in the home. Pp. P.C. Stern, Environmentally significant behavior in the home. Pp.

363-382 in A. Lewis, ed., 363-382 in A. Lewis, ed., The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour,and Economic Behaviour, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2008.Press, 2008.

T. Dietz, G.T. Gardner, J. Gilligan, P.C. Stern, and M. Vandenbergh, T. Dietz, G.T. Gardner, J. Gilligan, P.C. Stern, and M. Vandenbergh, Household actions can provide a behavioral wedge to rapidly Household actions can provide a behavioral wedge to rapidly reduce U.S. carbon emissions, in preparation. reduce U.S. carbon emissions, in preparation. Proceedings of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Sciences, 106:10452-10456.106:10452-10456.

P.C. Stern, G.T. Gardner, M.P. Vandenbergh, T. Dietz, and J. Gilligan. P.C. Stern, G.T. Gardner, M.P. Vandenbergh, T. Dietz, and J. Gilligan. Design principles for carbon emissions reduction programs. Design principles for carbon emissions reduction programs. Environmental Science & TechnologyEnvironmental Science & Technology, 2010, 44, 4847-4848., 2010, 44, 4847-4848.

G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, The short list: Most Effective Actions G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, The short list: Most Effective Actions U.S. Households Can Take to Limit Climate Change. U.S. Households Can Take to Limit Climate Change. EnvironmentEnvironment, , 2008, 50(5), 13-24.2008, 50(5), 13-24.

G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, Environmental Problems and Human Environmental Problems and Human Behavior, 2Behavior, 2ndnd ed. Pearson Custom Publishing, 2002. ed. Pearson Custom Publishing, 2002.

Contact: Paul C. SternContact: Paul C. SternNational Research Council, Washington DC, USANational Research Council, Washington DC, [email protected]@nas.edu