Pathways to Gradualtion from Social Protection

Future Agriculture Consortium 

PSNP Beneficiary Households Livelihood Profiles and Graduation Pathways Study 

First Round Study Report (For Presentation to Regional BoAs)(By Dadimos Development Consultants and IDS)

 December, 2011

1.1. Introduction •The GoE has launched the first food security programme, alternative to crisis responses, in 2005, of which PSNP, VRSP and OFSP are the components. •The second phase of food security programme including PSNP, HABP, CCI and VRSP was launched in 2010 to further enhance the implementation of existing and new food security programs•The second phase Food Security Programme document issued in August 2009 clearly links the objective the programme with graduation •The livelihood strengthening pathway of the programme envisages first focussing on household asset stabilization, then asset accumulation followed by access to sufficient food all round the year and then graduation from PSNP, then from the FSP.•

•In this way graduation is formulated as an outcome of combined supports of PSNP, HABP, CCI and other regular development interventions to households.•The experience of the 1st phase I (2005-2010) implementation of FSP shows that graduation is not as such a linear and progressive process•Based on this, this study is designed to track the livelihood profiles of a range of PSNP beneficiaries over two and half years in order to learn lessons and provide options for the future of social protection post- PSNP in Ethiopia•Accordingly, first round research/field work was conducted from July-August, 2011 in 8 communities of four woredas of Tigray and Oromia Regional States through in partnership with the two Regional States Bureaus of Agriculture (BoA), Institute of Development Studies and Dadimos Development Consultants PLC.

 1.2. Objective of the Study

•To learn from and reflect on the way households manage to strengthen their livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability to modest shocks in different PSNP scenarios.•To provide empirical evidence on multiple administrative and community-based thresholds as necessary and sufficient conditions for graduation of households from food insecurity.•To provide ideas on methods for the application of combined administrative and community-based thresholds to simplify the implementation of graduation process by woreda staff and community.

1.3. Research Methodology1. 3.1 Methods •To address to the above-mentioned objective of this research it requires collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data. Thus it requires to•Review existing PSNP panel survey data by IFPRI/CSA and IDS/Dadimos/CSA,•Secondary data/documents collection and analyses on different components of PSNP (especially on PSNP, OFSP and HABP), • Undertaking household (HH) survey, •Key informants interview (KII) with Food Security Task Force (FSTF) at federal, regional, woreda and Kebele levels, and traders interview at woreda/kebele level. (KII at federal, regional and traders interview will be conducted in the next round research),

•Focus group discussions with different group of community members i.e. male and female on upward and stagnating livelihood trajectory (four groups) and graduated households, •Conducting case studies at household level with graduated, current PSNP beneficiary and none PSNP beneficiary HHs to further enrich the data from the perspective of individuals (will be conducted on next round study), and•Observation is organized at village level. •1.3.2. Sampling •Purposive sampling method was employed to provide adequate evidence and lessons from PSNP graduation process,

•The research covered 8 communities from 4 woredas of Tigray and Oromia regions,•These communities were identified as part of the research undertaking considering contrasting situations that significantly affecting graduation•Moreover, sample communities should align with previous panel surveys of IFPRI/CSA or IDS/Dadimos/CSA•HH Sampling •A total of 75 households were sampled and interviewed in each woreda using structure survey questionnaire. •In total 300 households were interviewed from the four sample communities. •From these households were 20 graduates, 15 non-beneficiaries and 40 PSNP PWs beneficiaries.  

 1.4. Research Schedule

The research is scheduled to be conducted in four rounds. The followings are schedules for conducting HH survey and qualitative assessment.Household surveyFirst round in June/July 2011Second round in June/July 2012Qualitative assessmentsFirst round in June- August 2011Second round in December 2011-Feb 2012Third round in June-Aug 2012Fourth round in Dec- Feb 2012 

Summary of Findings and Discussion2.1. Access to PSNP•The proportion of households getting transfer for each member has shown much improvement overtime in Tigary, as described by both current beneficiaries and graduated households, while it has declined from the initial status in Oromia. •The decision of the government to realise full family targeting in Tigray and increase in family size in Oromia are found to be important reasons for change in size of transfer per households. •Delay in transfer is a common phenomenon in both regions that compromised the effectiveness of the programme in providing predictable transfer to support food gap and protect asset depletion. More than 55% and 45% of current beneficiary households in Oromia and Tigray respectively have indicated as the transfer comes delaying for a month or more. However, the same respondents have indicated as there has been improvement overtime in both regions, particularly in Tigray.

2.2. Graduation from PSNP • The majority of both the current beneficiary and graduated households are informed about graduation from different sources, mainly from KFSTFs and DAs. Moreover, about three quarter of the respondents do know the official graduation criteria in their kebele. •Outlook of Graduated HHs •The feeling of graduated households about graduation from the program is mixed. About half of the graduated respondents have indicated that they graduated without readiness. Moreover, a quarter and one-third of the same respondents in Tigray and Oromia respectively have indicated as they have no confidence at all about not to need PSNP in the future.• Many of the respondents (more than 50% in Tigray and more than 80% in Oromia) did not appeal to return to PSNP. expecting no change in Tigray and not knowing whom to appeal in Oromia are the most important reasons for not appealing.

•Community FGD also indicated as those who knows the existence of appeal system do not dare to appeal since they have no confidence on the system that they will get the right decision.•At the same time, however, majority of the graduated households (around 80%) in both regions have indicated as they achieved some or much improvements in their food security situation after graduation. •KII: FSTF In sampled woredas of Tigray explained that the status of graduated households has improved after graduating from PSNP. However, FSTFs in Oromia reported as graduated households are not showing a major change in their livelihood. They further indicated as some graduated HHs even returned to PSNP due to recurrent draught, erratic rain fall, hailstorms, wild fire and flooding that occurred in the woredas that made the households to lose their productive assets.

Perspective of Current Beneficiaries •Majority of the current PSNP beneficiary households (about 65% in Tigray and 90% in Oromia) have confidence (even if it varies in degree from highly confident to somewhat confident) to graduate from PSNP. However, there are some households (34% in Tigray and 8% in Oromia) who have no confidence at all.

2.3. Constrainers & Enablers of Graduation•PSNP specific constrainers: according to KII from WFSTF &

KFSTF, very low PW wage rate, delay in transfer payment, cash transfer instead of food are the key constrainers in facilitating the graduation process. In addition unable to buy fertilizer on cash basis, inadequate loan size and limited coverage, resistance of accepting new agricultural technology by farmers are also reported to be contributing factors to retard graduation

•Community FGD have also indicated similar constraints, in addition they pointed as absence of FFT, high interest rate of credit (in Tigray), inappropriate schedule and extended time of PW consumes time for private work, and shorter loan repayment period as PSNP specific constraining factors. •PSNP specific (potential)Enablers: KII of WFSTF & KFSTF have indicated list of enablers as follows: timely transfer payment, strengthening public works activities that are focusing on soil and water conservation, dependable output markets for PSNP household products, increased money saving culture by PSNP beneficiaries (Tigray) and the effective implementation of HABP.•Community FGDs have also indicated similar enablers, among others: environmental protection and infrastructure developed by PWs, OFSP/HABP credit, PSNP transfer to bridge food gaps are mentioned.

. Beneficiary specific Constrainers: according to KII from WFSTF & KFSTF unwillingness to graduate, hiding assets during assessment, low initial asset base (being the poorest of the poor), dependency mind set on PSNP transfer and misuse of transfer by some households are mentioned•Location specific constrainers: absence of large investment projects( except in Z/Dugda), animal diseases ( in both woredas of Oromia), crop diseases and low productivity of land ( in S/TS/Emba woreda of Tigray)•Market specific constrainers: problem of seasonal price fall for vegetables and fruits, high price of crops, commodity and transportation are the major constrainers of graduation that are related to markets

 2.4. Access to OFSP/HABP and Extension Support•The majority (over 78% of current beneficiary and 90% graduated) of households in Tigray have accessed OFSP/HABP credit services, while only limited percentage of (14.6% of current beneficiary and 43.6% of graduated) households have accessed OFSP/HABP credit in Oromia. • Moreover, the amount of credit provided per household from OFSP/HABP is by much higher in Tigray (Birr 7,225 per household for current beneficiaries and Birr 7,776 per household for graduated) than in Oromia (Birr 2,036 for current beneficiaries and Birr 3,256 graduated households).•KII: However, none of the sampled woredas in both regions started to provide credit from HABP until this research was conducted, August 2011

•Regarding loan repayment, in Tigray the current beneficiary, graduated and none beneficiary households have repaid about 76.4, 55.5 and 74.8 of their credit respectively when this survey was conducted. The same way about current beneficiary and graduated households in Oromia repaid 75% and 46.5% of their original loan amount. •About 35% of current beneficiary and 37.1% graduated sample households in Tigray indicated the need for additional credit. In Oromia woredas about 97% of current beneficiary and 93% graduated households demanded similar additional credit. •Moreover, majority of users of OFSP/HABP (71.3% current beneficiary and graduated households in Tigray have prepared business plan on how to utilize credit money they were provided.

•As opposed to this, limited percentage of households (48% current beneficiary and 36.1% graduated households) in Oromia reported to have business plans to make use of OFSP/HABP credit.•Some FGD participant community have indicated as they did not get access to credit services; improving women in ZDugda, Oromia have indicated as priority is given to men in provision of credit (particularly the in-kind credit); some of stagnating men in kebbele of S/TS/Emba Woreda, Tigray, also indicated as they did not get access to credit services. •KII and community FGD has also indicated as the effectiveness of credit is affected by various factors. Accordingly type of loan (cash or in kind), weather the loan is demand driven or supply side push and follow up, type of activity/package, and using the credit for the intended purposes affects the effectiveness of credit provided.  

Recommendation on credit service (by KII and FGD): •Timely release of HABP credit, Increasing the loan size, giving attention to the implementation of HABP, Strengthening basic cooperatives and credit and saving associations at kebele level, Expanding community complementary investment (CCI) projects like large scale irrigation, Improving marketing services, Extending loan repayment period, Provision of demand based credit and others. Increase in loan size has got much attention by the community. 2.5. Livelihood Trends and Trajectories •HH Survey: There is no major change in livelihood activities in both regions over the last five years (from 2005 to 2010), except the proportion of households engaged on cash crop farming which showed some increase. •Improvement in extension services, increase in supply of inputs and savings of PSNP transfer and access to credit packages were the main reasons for change in economic activities. In general about three-quarters of all respondent households in both regions have reported improvement in aggregate income over the last five years (from 2005 to 2010).

•The responses obtained from Community FGD indicated that graduated households and men FGDs on upward livelihood trajectory in Z/Dugda and both woredas of Tigray have better access to irrigation activities than men FGDs on stagnating livelihood in same woredas. •The men FGDs on stagnating livelihood trajectory on the other hand are more engaged in causal labour works, trading and providing services than these households•The HH survey result indicates as 68.8/55.6%, 82.5/51.3% and 70/60% of current beneficiary, graduated and none beneficiary households do meet their 12 month food need in Tigray/Oromia. •Shocks: Drought, crop loss (due to pest and unsuitable weather) and high food prices are the three most important risks experienced by sample households in both regions among others during the past 12 months.

•Most of the respondents in study areas of Oromia have indicated drought happened in the past 12 months as major shock.•HHs on Stagnating Livelihood trajectory: low initial asset base of a household, landlessness and low productivity of the land , partial family targeting , frequent drought that affected crop harvest and death of livestock are factors that holdback improvement of the livelihood of these households.•HHs on Improving Livelihood trajectory: Access to irrigation facilities (except in Fedis, Oromia), credit from household packages, better use of various agricultural technologies and inputs, technical support from DAs and the motivation and efforts exerted by households themselves to change their own life helped them to move upward

2.6. Conclusion and Recommendation•Access to PSNP: Ensuring FFT (particularly in Oromia) and timely transfer of payments (in both regions) has to get attention.•Most the PSNP beneficiary HHs do have awareness and understanding on Graduation. However, there is a need to improve awareness of the community on systems and functions of appeal mechanisms and make them develop confidence on the system•Absence of timely transfer, low wage rate, cash transfer, insufficient and high interest rate of credit and extended and inappropriate schedule of PWs are identified as programme specific constraints of graduation that need to be solved to attain graduation performance as needed. •Moreover, beneficiary specific constraints (dependency, hiding asset and inappropriate use of transfers), location and weather related constraints ( absence of large investments, drought, animal and human diseases) and market related constraints ( like fluctuation in price of produces and soaring price of goods and services needed by the community, etc) were mentioned.

•Thus it needs to create more awareness to the beneficiary about the objectives of the FSP, link the FSP with other regular development interventions i.e. control animal and plant diseases, expansion of public and private investments, creating dependable market for products demanded and supplied by PSNP beneficiary HHs and the like•Access to credit services is considered as imperative by both KI and FGD participant community. •However, access to credit (both in coverage and size) is limited in Oromia, while interest rate is an issue in Tigray. •Moreover, HABP credit is not provided in both regions. •Most of the FGD participants have urged for increase in loan size, reduce interest rate and demand base (cash) credit. •Thus solving these bottlenecks in speedy way is highly important in facilitating graduation from PSNP

•There has been improvement in livelihood and income of the community mainly due to expansion in extension services, increase in supply of inputs and savings of PSNP transfer and access to credit packages. •Access to credit by graduated households and current beneficiries on upward livelihood trajectory in Z/Dugda and both woredas of Tigray is also reasons for improvement in livelihood activities and income. •Contrastingly those households on stagnating livelihood trajectory are more engaged on causal labour works, trading and providing services than improving households. This is mainly due to limitation of access to credit services for inputs (motor pumps), land and other working capitals.•Thus expansion of irrigation facilities to the community is also very important for improvement in livelihood status.

The End

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