Pathogen Management Modelling - APEG

Pathogen management and modelling

Nick TaylorPopulation

Ecologist/Epidemiological Modeller

Disease monitoring and emergence• Fish Health Inspectorate:

– 10 field inspectors

– Visit 700+ APB’s per annum

– Early identification of problems

– Big picture perspective

• Epidemiology and risk assessment: – ID potential threats

– Assess the risk posed

– Suggest mitigation measures

Emerging diseases

Pathogen testing• Reference lab (EU, national, OIE) for:

– Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

– Infectious haematpoietic necrosis

– Bacterial kidney disease

– Gyrodactylus salaris

– Spring viraemia of carp

– Marteiliosis

– Bonamiasis

– Infectious pancreatic necrosis

– Crayfish plague.

• Pathogen culture, PCR, antigen ELISA and antibody testing.

Field studies• Assess distribution and

scale.

• Study pathogen life-cycles and dynamics in the real world.

• Conduct classical epidemiological studies: Cross-sectional

Cohort

Case-control

• Identify risk factors.

Complex data and statistical tools

0.8

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May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03

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May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03

Leng

th (m

m)

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Pathogen life-cycles

Experimental studies

Pathogen challenge studies

Efficacy against pathogen

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Abu

ndan

ce

c1c2c3t1t2t3

Benefit to host

Environmental impact

Disease modelling

Optimal application and control policies

10°C 15°C 20°C 25°C

pH 6.1 1 1 1 1

pH 6.4 1 1 1 2

pH 6.7 1 1 2 2

pH 7.0 1 2 2 3

pH 7.3 1 1 2 2

pH 7.6 1 1 1 2

pH 7.9 1 1 1 1

Summary

• What’s the problems.

• Extent and severity.

• How to test for it.

• What drives it.

• What’s its life-cycle.

• Effective treatments.

• How to manage.