(Path to sustainable development) PUC-Rio 17/03 BR

THE PATH TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING COMPLEX GLOBAL SYSTEMS

JEFFREY D. SACHS DIRECTOR OF THE EARTH INSTITUTE

PONTIFICAL CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO MARCH 17, 2014

Globaia

“For man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life.” -JFK Inaugural Address January 20, 1963

0

500.000.000

1.000.000.000

1.500.000.000

2.000.000.000

2.500.000.000

3.000.000.000

1971

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2011

The IT Revolution Fueling Global Progress: Microprocessor Transistor Count

Intel 4004

2.3K

Xeon Phi

2.6B

Tunis, January 2011 Cairo, January 2011

Athens July 2011

Tel Aviv, August 2011 Chile, August 2011 New York City, November 2011

Madrid, September 2012 Istanbul, June 2013 Rio de Janeiro, June 2013

Source: Rockström et al 2009a)

“PLANETARY BOUNDARIES”

IN APRIL, 2013, CO2 CONCENTRATION REACHES 400 PPM FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MILLION YEARS

Techno-Economic

Earth Systems

Governance

Social Dynamics

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS THE CHALLENGE OF MANAGING

FOUR GLOBAL-SCALE, COMPLEX, INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS

CLIMATE CHANGE (SUPERSTORM SANDY, OCTOBER 29, 2012)

BEIJING ENVELOPED IN POLLUTION, JANUARY 2014

AMAZON MEGA-DROUGHT, 2005

DEFORESTATION FIRE IN SOUTHEASTERN AMAZON

NATURE MAGAZINE, 6 FEBRUARY 2014

SHIFT OF AMAZON FROM SINK TO SOURCE IN DRY YEARS, GATTI, NATURE, FEB 2014

SYRIA

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Climate change impacts in Brazil - IPCC 4th Assessment Report In northeast Brazil semi-arid and arid areas will suffer a decrease of water resources due to climate change [3.4, 3.7]. Semi- arid vegetation is likely to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. In tropical forests, species extinctions are likely [13.4] Computed groundwater recharge decreases dramatically by more than 70% in north-eastern Brazil (reference climate normal 1961-1990 and the 2050s) [3.4.2.]. Increases in rainfall in southeast Brazil have had impacts on land use, crop yields and have increased flood frequency and intensity [TS4.2]. In the future, sea level rise, weather and climatic variability and extremes modified by global warming are very likely to have impacts on mangroves [13.4.4]. 38-45% of the plants in the Cerrado (Central Brazil savannas) committed to extinction with temperature increase of 1.7°C above pre- industrial levels[Table 4.1].

Amazonia Climate Impacts: Highly unusual extreme weather events were reported, such as Amazon drought in 2005 [TS4.2]. Potential increases in drought conditions have been quantitatively projected during the critical growing phase, due to increasing summer temperatures and precipitation declines [4.4.5] Conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural land drives climate change by altering regional albedo and latent heat flux, causing additional summer warming in key regions in Amazon region [4.4.1] Major loss of Amazon rainforest with large losses of biodiversity with 2.0-3.0°C above pre-industrial levels[Table 4.1] Increases in temperature and decreases in soil water would lead to replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. [13.4]

THE NEED FOR LONG-TERM SYSTEMS THINKING AND STRATEGIES: INVESTING IN YOUNG PEOPLE SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES AND DEEP DECARBONIZATION SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND DIETS WELLBEING, NOT GDP TRANSPARENT GLOBAL FINANCE AND TAX SYSTEMS ENDING EXTREME POVERTY (E.G. AFRICA) STABLE SYSTEMS OF POLITICAL ALTERNATION

EVANGELII GAUDIUM ENDING THE “GLOBALIZATION OF INDIFFERENCE”

Sustainable Development was adopted

at the Rio+20 Summit as the organizing

principle for the Post-2015 global goals.

The UN Member States are now negotiating

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

An important meeting on SDGs took place

at the UN General Assembly on September

25, 2013 to set a timeline to 2015.

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network

operates under the auspices of UN Secretary-General

Ban Ki-moon, and engages scientists, engineers,

business and civil society leaders, and development

practitioners for evidence-based problem solving.

It promotes solution initiatives that demonstrate the

potential of technical and business innovation to

support sustainable development (www.unsdsn.org)

By defining our goal more clearly -- by making it seem more manageable and less remote -- we can help all people to see it, to draw hope from it and to move irresistibly towards it. (JFK, American University Speech, June 1963)

Illustrative SDGs 1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger POVERTY 2. Achieve Growth and Jobs within Planetary Boundaries ECONOMY 3. Effective Education for All Children and Youth for Life and Livelihood EDUCATION 4. Achieve Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and Human Rights for All INCLUSION 5. Achieve Health and Wellbeing at All Ages HEALTH 6. Improve Agricultural Systems and Rural Productivity FOOD 7. Empower Inclusive, Productive, and Resilient Cities CITIES 8. Curb Climate Change and Ensure Sustainable Energy ENERGY/CLIMATE 9. Secure Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, Water, Natural Resources BIODIVERSITY 10. Transform Government for Sustainable Development GOVERNANCE (SDSN Action Plan, 2013)

We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. JFK, RICE UNIVERSITY, SEPTEMBER 1962

So let us not be blind to our differences, but let us also direct attention to our common interests and the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children's futures. And we are all mortal. John F. Kennedy, June 10, 1963