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Page 1: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future
Page 2: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Path to 100%Efficiency & Flexibility in the Italian Energy System

Page 3: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Panelists

Emanuele MartinelliCEO

Energia Media

Marco GolinelliSenior Business Development Manager, Sales & Commercial

Wärtsilä Italia

Gabriele BucciniBusiness Development Manager

Wärtsilä Italia

Marco GuiducciSenior Consultant

Energy & Strategy Group

Page 4: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future generations. Wärtsilä’s solutions provide the needed flexibility to integrate renewables and secure power system reliability – unlocking an optimised energy transition for our customers.

Our offering comprises engine-based flexible power plants, energy management systems and storage solutions. We support our customers over the lifecycle of their installations with services that enable increased efficiency and guaranteed performance. Wärtsilä has 71 GW of installed power plant capacity in 180 countries around the world.

Wärtsilä Energy

Page 5: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future
Page 6: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Il mercato italiano della cogenerazione ed ilsuo potenziale

Marco GuiducciEnergy & Strategy – Politecnico di [email protected]

23 giugno 2020

Page 7: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Gli investimenti nel settore industrialeLa visione per tecnologie I 2.406 mln € di investimenti effettuati in tecnologie hardware nel 2019, si ripartiscono come mostrato in figura.

Energy & Strategy – Politecnico di Milano

482

390 386

304

231207

189170

52

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Interventi sulprocesso produttivo

Cogenerazione Sistemi dicombustione

efficiente

Illuminazione HVAC Motori elettrici Inverter Aria compressa Refrigerazione

Inve

stim

enti

[mln

€]

Investimenti per tecnologie

Page 8: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Gli investimenti nel settore industrialeIl trend 2018-2019 Rispetto al 2018, si registra una contrazione degli investimenti in cogenerazione e sistemi di combustione efficiente. Di contro

crescono gli investimenti in aria compressa e nel processo produttivo. Variazioni poco rilevanti per le altre tecnologie analizzate.

Energy & Strategy – Politecnico di Milano

396

443 459

312

217 218193

143

49

482

390 386

304

231207

189170

52

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Interventi sulprocesso produttivo

Cogenerazione Sistemi dicombustione

efficiente

Illuminazione HVAC Motori elettrici Inverter Aria compressa Refrigerazione

Inve

stim

enti

[mln

€]

Trend investimenti 2018-19

2018 2019

Variazione % 18% -13% -19% -3% 6% -5% -2% 16% 6%

Page 9: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Analisi database CARMappatura impianti di cogenerazione

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

11.000

12.000

13.000

14.000

8.300

Impianti non CAR

Impianti CAR

5.200

Impianti <200 kW

50

Impianti >200 kW

2.500

Grandi centrali di

produzione 2.650

Impiantidi taglia

«industriale»800Op.

Energy*

Op. industriali

1.850

MW5.150Area di

analisi

*Operatori Energy: ESCo, Utility e Facility Manager

Page 10: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Continua la contrazione degli investimenti in cogenerazione, i quali registrano un -13% rispetto al 2018.Contrazione tuttavia limitata rispetto al dato del 2018, anno in cui gli investimenti si erano ridotti del 24% rispettoall’anno precedente. La cogenerazione rimane comunque un comparto in sofferenza dall’entrata in vigore delDecreto Energivori, soprattutto per gli impianti di grande taglia.

La forte competizione nel mercato della cogenerazione, cresciuta in particolare negli ultimi anni con l’ingressodei fornitori specializzati in efficienza energetica come ESCo ed Utility, ha spinto gli operatori a fornire unasempre maggior gamma di servizi correlati alla semplice vendita dell’impianto. Si sta assistendo quindi ad unatrasformazione del mercato con uno spostamento dal prodotto verso il servizio.

La mappatura degli impianti di cogenerazione ad alto rendimento (CAR) ha evidenziato come il mercato dellacogenerazione sia particolarmente frammentato con più di 200 operatori, suddivisi tra mondo industriale edenergy, detentori di impianti di cogenerazione.

Messaggi chiaveIl mercato ed i player coinvolti

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

Page 11: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Stima del potenziale della cogenerazione al 2025 Metodologia

Definizione degli scenari di sviluppo

Fattori caratterizzanti e driver

Market analysis

Valutazione del potenziale di mercato

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

Page 12: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Fattori caratterizzanti e driver

Per l’identificazione dei driver che si stimi abbiano il maggior impatto sul mercato della cogenerazione, sono state condotte delleinterviste dirette sia con operatori di mercato (fornitori di tecnologia ed ESCo), sia con gli operatori industriali con la maggiorattitudine all’utilizzo di impianti cogenerativi (cartaria e alimentare).

A valle delle informazioni raccolte sono stati identificati 7 driver principali, che a loro volta possono essere categorizzati in 4fattori caratterizzanti.

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

Evoluzione del contesto normativo

Fattori caratterizzanti DriverImpatto riforma TEE

Riforma decreto energivori

Evoluzione dei modelli di businessProduct as a service

Generazione distribuita

Nuovi paradigmi mondo energySviluppo del teleriscaldamento

Apertura all’MSD

Contesto marco-economico Sviluppo della filiera dell’efficienza energetica

Page 13: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Definizione degli scenari di sviluppoCriteri di valutazione Ogni driver identificato ha un’influenza diversa sugli scenari di sviluppo. Per questo motivo ad ogni driver è stato assegnato un

punteggio su una scala da -5 a +5, dove il punteggio -5 indica un impatto fortemente negativo mentre +5 indica un impatto fortemente positivo.

I punteggi assegnati per ogni driver per i differenti scenari sono:

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

I II III IV

Fattori caratterizzanti

Evoluzione del contesto normativo Evoluzione dei modelli di business Nuovi paradigmi mondo energy Contesto macro-economico

Driver Impatto riforma TEE

Riforma decreto energivori

Product as a service Generazione distribuita

Sviluppo del teleriscaldamento

Apertura all’MSD

Sviluppo della filiera dell’efficienza energetica

Scenario ottimistico

2 3 2 2 1 3 3

Scenario as is 1 0 1 1 0 1 1

Scenario vincolato

-1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0

Page 14: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Market AnalysisSuddivisione per taglia e settore L’impatto dei driver selezionati varia anche in base all’ ambito di applicazione, dove l’ambito viene definito dal binomio

taglia/settore.

Con un criterio di valutazione simile rispetto a quello usato per i fattori caratterizzanti, l’impatto dei vari driver sugli ambiti di applicazione viene valutato su una scala da 0 a 5, dove 0 indica impatto nullo mentre 5 indica un impatto elevato.

L’interpolazione dei punteggi assegnati ai driver per i vari ambiti (settore e taglia) di applicazione definiscono l’eventuale crescita/decrescita del volume di affari.

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

Settori Taglie

Industria

Terziario

Residenziale

Grande (> 5MW)

Media (500 kW-5MW)

Piccola (<500 kW)

Riforma decreto energivori

Taglia/settore Industria Terziario Residenziale

Grande 5 0 0

Media 4 0 0

Piccola 2 0 0

L’impatto del decreto energivori è non rilevante per quanto riguarda il settore terziario e residenziale

mentre ha un impatto molto elevato sul comparto industriale. Anche nel comparto industriale, l’impatto

tuttavia varia in funzione della taglia del cogeneratore, con un impatto elevato sulle grandi

taglie rispetto alle medio-piccole.

Page 15: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Potenziale di mercato al 2025Overview È interessante sottolineare come in termini di volume di affari, i 3 scenari si discostino in maniera significativa in particolare dal

2023 in poi. In generale, la differenza tra lo scenario vincolato e lo scenario as is risulta meno marca rispetto alla differenza tralo scenario as is e lo scenario ottimistico.

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

484 490503

523

548

582

621

666

481484 488 494

503513

530

473464

457450 444 439 436

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Inve

stim

enti

[mln

€]

Scenario ottimistico Scenario as is Scenario vincolato

Elaborazioni pre Covid-19

Page 16: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Messaggi chiaveGli scenari attesi e le sfide future

Energy & Strategy Group – Politecnico di Milano

Dopo 2018 di forte contrazione, causata principalmente dall’introduzione del decreto energivori, si stima che anche nelprossimo biennio si assisterà ad un periodo di stagnazione negli investimenti in cogenerazione. Comparto che non scontasemplicemente un quadro legislativo avverso, ma che ha anche raggiunto una certa maturità e necessita di nuovi sbocchi perpoter riprendere la crescita.

Crescita che potrebbe essere trainata dall’offerta di nuovi modelli di business da parte degli operatori e dalla diffusione dellamicro cogenerazione nel breve termine, e dalla partecipazione al Mercato dei Servizi di Dispacciamento nel lungo periodo.Rimane un settore, che necessiterebbe comunque di un cambio di marcia dal punto di vista normativo per poter ripartireperlomeno nel breve termine.

È interessante anche osservare come il peso dei driver principali cambi radicalmente nell’arco temporale. Se nel breve termine,i driver che maggiormente influenzeranno gli investimenti nel settore industriali sono a livello normativo, ed in particolare unaeventuale ripresa o no del mercato dei TEE, nel lungo termine i 2 principali driver saranno l’apertura all’MSD e la capacità deifornitori di offrire un servizio integrato insieme alla vendita del prodotto.

Vista la particolarità del momento che stiamo vivendo, è infine importante sottolineare come al momento sia estremamentecomplesso fare delle previsioni che risultino robuste su quello che sarà lo sviluppo dei prossimi anni. Ad esempio, il GreenDeal europeo al termine del COVID sarà applicato con ancora più vigore e avrà un ruolo pivotale nella ripresa? O al contrario lerisorse originariamente previste saranno dirottate sul altri strumenti per sostenere la ripresa? In questo momento di transizioneè ancora arduo rispondere a tali quesiti.

Page 17: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Il mercato italiano della cogenerazione ed ilsuo potenziale

Marco GuiducciEnergy & Strategy – Politecnico di [email protected]

23 giugno 2020

Page 18: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE

Page 19: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

DRIVERS FOR A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE

MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE

TARGETS FOR RENEWABLES AND DECARBONISATION

RAPIDLY DECREASING PRICE OF RENEWABLES

ELECTRIFICATION INCREASES ELECTRICITY DEMAND

INCREASING PUBLIC RESISTANCE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS

Page 20: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LCOE ($/MWh, 2018 real)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

LCOE ($/MWh, 2018 real)

UNITED KINGDOM

CCGT

Solar PV

Onshore windOnshore wind

Solar PV

COAL

CCGT

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: LCOE are based on realized capacity factors. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: LCOE are based on realized capacity factors.

CHINA

RENEWABLES HAVE REACHED A TIPPING POINT GLOBALLY

20

ITALY(IREX REPORT 2019)

Page 21: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Global Cumulative wind & solar capacity

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2019

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2015 2020 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Onshore wind Offshore wind Utility-scale PV Small-scale PV

GW In the coming years renewables will increase massively in power systems world wide. This will have an impact on existing power systems.

Page 22: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

The path to a 100% renewables energy world

Renewables expensivecompared to fossil fuels

Majority of energy producedby inflexible plants

(coal, natural gas, and nuclear)

”Peaking generation” and system balancing,

offering inexpensive capacity

Limited opportunitiesfor storage to cost

effectively address ancillary services

RES 0%Good old days

INFLEXIBLEGENERATION

FLEXIBLEGENERATION

ENERGYSTORAGE

RENEWABLEENERGY

Renewables reach grid parity with traditional generation

Increasing intermittent load profiles increases operating costs and

challenges business model

Flexible thermal capacity replaces inflexible

generation to enable more stable grids

Energy shiftingprojects start to emerge

RES 20%Tipping point

Renewables becomesnew baseload

No role for inflexible generation

High renewables case requires highly flexible thermal capacity to

maintain system reliability

Key component in a renewables as baseload grid. Energy shifting and

overall grid balancing

RES 80%Renewablesas baseload

Excess renewable energy seen as raw material for

other commodities (Power-to-X; gas, fuel, water, and

food)

Synthetic gas, biogas,or synthetic liquid fuels

used for flexible back-up

Power-to-X for seasonal energy shifting, daily energy shifting with energy storage

RES 100%Final push

RES 18%Global average

today*

Source: BNEF New Energy Outlook, 2019 RES = global production capacity of renewable energy sources (wind and solar)

Page 23: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

The path to a 100% renewables energy world

Subsidized for renewable energy

RES 0%Good old days

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

ROLE OF DISPATCH

ROLE OF CONSUMERS

POLITICAL DRIVER

Grid parity of renewable energy achieved,project feasibility driving investments

RES 20%Tipping point

RES 80%Renewablesas baseload

RES 100%Final push

RES 18%Global average

today*

Source: BNEF New Energy Outlook, 2019 RES = global production capacity of renewable energy sources (wind and solar)

Targets set globallyto 100%

Affordable electricity seen as rawmaterial for other commodities

Energy storage and cost reduction for renewables

Focus on energy storageto enable within day energy

shifting

Power to gas, power to fuel,power to food

Central and easy to coordinate More variability, central dispatch Decentralized, but still

centrally coordinatedDecentralized, but stillcentrally coordinated

Passive Minor activity Actively participating in system

management. Active trading bilaterally.

Actively participating in systemManagement and trading

electricity

Cross-industrial technologydevelopment

Page 24: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

© Wärtsilä

ITALIAAssessing requirement for additional flexibility

Page 25: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

NECP (PNIEC) ITALY 2030

9

9

46

1014

50

6

5

1

23

23

5

5

10

8

18

20

31

51

5 5

56.2 57.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2017 Retiring New 2030

Capa

city

, pea

k lo

ad [G

W]

Other

Batteries

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

Peak load

119 GW

-24 GW

+58 GW

153 GW

Source: Terna

• Coal phase-out by 2025• Present government in favor of

coal phase-out• Should be replaced by solar and

wind only• It is acknowledged by Terna that

flexible gas will be needed

32

141

121

46

46

19

19

17

40

24 75

6

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2017 2030

Gen

erat

ion

[TW

h]

290 TWh 310 TWh

x3

x2.4

ENERGY MIX CAPACITY MIX

Flexibility will be needed to integrate

renewables

Page 26: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Generation capacity’s transmission challenge

[TWh]

A lot of wind and solar concentrated in south. Congestion in transmission system

between Center-South – Center-North zones

Page 27: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Significant cycling of gas generation

• Highest load during summer due to air conditioning

• Gas turbines are cycling between 5 and 15 GW each day

• Main source of flexibility is gas, hydro and interconnectors

HIG

H L

OAD

WEE

KLO

W L

OAD

WEE

K

-5 0000

5 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 00055 00060 000

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

One week starting from Monday 30th of July 2018

-5 0000

5 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 00050 00055 00060 000

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

One week starting from Monday 1st of January 2018

Wind

Solar

Hydro-PS

Hydro

Geothermal

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

Import

Export

Hydro-PS (load)

Page 28: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

PLEXOS Italy 2030 Assessing requirement for additional flexibility

• Base scenario represents NECP in 2030• 0 GW of new flexible gas capacity• The analysis includes 11 additional scenarios; Each scenario incrementally adds new

flexible capacity• Operation of the Italian power system is optimised hour-by-hour for all 12 scenarios

separately• All operational costs are included in the model• Investment costs for the new capacity are included in total cost

Page 29: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Benefits from a more flexible power system • High output of both solar and wind combined with lower demand results in overgeneration

• Overgeneration can be absorbed e.g. with BESS, pumped hydro storage or exporting

• NECP plans include 5 GW BESS

• Emerging technologies e.g. Power-to-X, other industries

Page 30: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Assessing requirement for additional flexibility

RES utilisation increases with more flexible capacity• Lower operational costs for the whole system

Total system cost includes investment into new capacity• Overall cost-optimal point balances between better RES

utilisation and fixed costsScenario with 6 GW of new flexible generation capacity has lowest total cost for the Italian power system - ”Flexible scenario”Better utilisation of RES means more generation with same installed capacity

• Over 55% share of CO2 free generation in Flexible scenario

More carbon free generation results in less carbon overall carbon emissions

• 12% lower carbon intensity for total generation

Annual savings 400 million EUR

Page 31: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Wärtsilä Energy Transition Labhttps://www.wartsila.com/energy/transition-lab

Page 32: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

WÄRTSILÄ’S ROLE AS THE ENERGY SYSTEM INTEGRATOR

32

Page 33: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

FUTURE-PROOF FLEXIBILITY SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE ALREADY TODAY

RES 20%Tipping point

2025

RES 80%Renewables as baseload

2040

RES 100%Final push

2050

RES 18%Global average today*

2019

Future-proof flexible power plants

Energy storage with industry the leading energy management system (GEMS)

Energy services that support customer needs along the energy transition

Constantly seeking new innovations for an optimised energy transition

Source: BNEF New Energy Outlook, 2019 RES = global production capacity of renewable energy sources (wind and solar)

Page 34: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Rapid growth forecasted for flexible solutions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Oil Gas Peaker gas Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Peaker gas Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Pumped hydro

ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITITIONS 2018-2040 (GW)

ANNUAL FLEXIBLE CAPACITY ADDITIONS 2018–2040 (GW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2019

Page 35: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future
Page 36: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

ELECTRICITYFROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

WATER (H2O)SPLIT INTO

H2 + O2

CARBON DIOXIDE(CO2) CAPTURED

CARBON NEUTRAL RENEWABLE

SYNTHETIC FUEL

POWER-TO-FUEL

36

Page 37: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Potential energy – Power to Gas

And the impact to the role of gas in the future

Page 38: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Power to X - synthetic biogas

Page 39: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Provide the best means of support to the power system by offering the highest degree of flexibility, enabling major savings, and creating an optimised response to rapid changes in intermittent generation.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

FUEL FLEXIBILITY

OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY

Page 40: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Dynamic District Heating (DDH)

District Heating output

Traditional DH operation

MW

(Hea

t & e

lect

ricity

)

EUR

(ele

ctric

ity p

rice)

Hours of a day0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Electricity price Electricity output

Electrical Boiler

Heat Accu

Heat accu.

Heat Accu

Electricity priceElectricity output

DHDH DH

Electricity output

Operating DH in high Renewable Energy System

EUR

(ele

ctric

ity p

rice)

Hours of a day

MW

(Hea

t & e

lect

ricity

)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Electricity price

Page 41: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Skagen District Heating, Denmark

http://www.emd.dk/desire/skagen/

Page 42: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

TOWARDS 100% RES – GERMANY 100 MW SYSTEM IN 2030

78% Renewable energy

0% Renewable energy

100% Renewable energy

THERMAL ONLYSOLAR, WIND, STORAGE, ENGINES SOLAR, WIND, STORAGE, ENGINES

RUNNING ON SYNTHETIC FUEL (P2X)

SOLAR AND STORAGE ONLY

394 $/MWh

72 $/MWh64 $/MWh

99 $/MWh

68 MW 176 MW 125 MWh 75 MWXPOWER TO

117 MW 270 MW 245 MWh 66 MW 59 MW

2 789 MW 7 276 MWh

100 MW

OPTIMISED TRANSITION with the right flexibility

Page 43: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Capacity vs peak demand

The transition to a 100% renewable system requires massive investment in new capacity.

Existing baseload capacity is replaced with flexible thermal capacity.

Energy storage is used to shift energy within the day, while flexible generation ensures system reliability when renewable energy is not available.

0 % RES 20 % RES 80 % RES 100 % RES

Inflexible generation Flexible generation Renewable energy Energy storage

DEMAND1x

4x 5x

3x4x

Page 44: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Wärtsilä energy storage & optimisation

The world’s leading hybrid power systems providerintegrating thermal, renewables and storageWärtsilä Energy Business

Global energy storage leader and engine-based power plants systems optimiser with 650+ MW deployed or under contract globally

Best-in-Class Control

Powered by advanced GEMS Solutions Suite technology, designed to optimise battery life and maximise battery monetisation strategies

Unprecedented capabilities to integrate and manage assets into a unified energy future—engines, solar, wind, and energy storage

A Hybrid Future Realised

180Countr ies

70GW Generated

650+MW Global Storage Systems* d e p l o y e d o r a w a r d e d

Page 45: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

WÄRTSILÄ global energy storage projects

MEA RegionSingapore: 2 MW Australasia: 200 MW

AMER RegionCalifornia: 90 MW ERCOT: 20 MWPJM: 40 MWUtility: 20 MWIslands: 16+ MW

AFEU RegionUK: 100 MW Germany 20 MWHungary: 6 MWSenegal: 10 MWMali: 17.3 MWIslands: 6+ MW

650 MW+ in operation, deployed or contractedHighlighted Projects

Page 46: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

GRIDSOLV MAX – 40ft Containerized Solution

Our standardized container is a cost effective solution for meeting customer energy needs while adequately protecting their hardware assets K ey e lem ents:• Bat te r y Modu les and BMS• Safe ty system• Fi r e system • Pow er dist r ibu t ion • HVAC system s• Com m netw or k• DC connect ions

Page 47: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

GRIDSOLV QUANTUM – Modular Solution

Page 48: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

GEMS SOLUTIONS SUITE

OptimisedFlexible Generation

Site Simulator

Analyser

FleetDirector

SiteController

ThermalGeneration

Wind

Solar

Energy Storage

GEMS Operating System

• The leading energy system management platform

• A suite of proprietary software products for building, monitoring and intelligently operating power plants and energy resources

• Optimises all generation assets• Secure, flexible, scalable

• Deployed in 70+ projects around the world

Page 49: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

• Real-time Data Streaming

• Data Visibility

• Global Fleet

• Site System

• Device

• Data Reports

• Push Notifications

• Third Party Data Integration

GEMS User Interface

Page 50: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

GEMS Dashboard

Page 51: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

CONTOUR GLOBAL, BONAIRE (CARIBBEAN)

• Boosts wind penetration from ~20% to 33% with addition of energy storage and GEMS control system

• Will eliminate the dependency on HFO; fuel consumption decreased by 5%

• Delivers both economic and environmental benefits; CO2 emission decreased by 8%

• GEMS software controls the island grid of Bonaire, an island of 19,000 inhabitants.

GRID CONTROL, INTEGRATION& OPTIMISATION

The existing thermal power plant is running on 5 HFO engines, 3 back up diesel engines

The 6 MW / 6 MWh energy storage system includes batteries, invertersand power electronics

Integrates 13 wind turbines while simultaneously optimising multiple generation assets

6MW/6MWh Island Grid

Page 52: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

Example hour: 12 MW Load, 9 MW Wind, 4 .5 MW Spinning Reserve Requirement

Before

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

Engine 1 Engine 2 Engine 3 Engine 4 Engine 5 ESS

Spinning Reserve from Engines

Average load Spinning reserve

Engi

ne Lo

ad [k

W]

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

Engine 1 Engine 2 Engine 3 Engine 4 Engine 5 ESS

Spinning Reserve from Energy Storage

Average load Spinning reserve Stand-by ESS

Engi

ne L

oad

[kW

]

After

• Engines : 6.4 MW; reserves: 5 MW• Wind 5.6 MW• Wind curtailment: 3.4 MW• Engines operate at minimum load: 1.6 MW each

• Engines power: 3.2 MW; reserves: 2.5 MW• Wind power: 8.8 MW• Wind curtailment: 0.2 MW• Energy storage reserves: 3 MW

CONTOUR GLOBAL, BONAIRE (CARIBBEAN)Change in Operations

Page 53: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

• Boosts renewable energy consumption from 15% to 65% once the plant is fully operational in late 2018

• Will eliminate the dependency on17,000 liters of diesel per month

• Delivers both economic and environmental benefits

GRACIOLICA LDA, AZORES (PORTUGAL)

GRID CONTROL, INTEGRATION& OPTIMISATION

The Graciosa Hybrid Renewable Power Plant will enable 1 MW of solar, 4.5 MW of wind power and 6 MW / 3.2 MWh energy storage

Integrates renewable energy sources while simultaneously optimising multiple generation assets

7MW/2.3MWh Island Grid

Page 54: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

- 6%

- 42%

100% RENEWABLES

Financial Drivers and 100% RENEWABLES

Time axis

Poweraxis

Page 55: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

POMONA ENERGY CENTRE, CALIFORNIA, USA

20MW/80MWh Grid-Tied CAPACITY & FREQUENCY REGULATION

• Five months NTP to COD!• Multiple Revenue Streams:

• CAISO Resource Adequacy (capacity contract for 4-hrs Discharge

• CAISO Regulation Markets (Ancillary Services Regulation up and down)

• Real-time Market Arbitrage

• The Pomona Energy Centre’s 20 MW / 80 MWh energy storage system was constructed in record time

Page 56: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

KEY TAKEAWAYTransformational agility

DEPLOYMENT62 MW / 53 MWh ESS

SOLUTIONReg D and Reg A

CLIENT PARTNERPJM

Wärtsiläfuture-proofing value proposition

January 2017 PJM changes regulation AGC signal without notice presenting significant challenge to 250 MW battery investments.

• Energy neutrality from 15 minutes to 30 minutes

• Energy throughput up 62%

• More frequent full charge / discharge calls

Page 57: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future

KEY TAKEAWAYTransformational agility

DEPLOYMENT62 MW / 53 MWh ESS

SOLUTIONReg D and Reg A

CLIENT PARTNERPJM

Wärtsiläfuture-proofing value proposition

Wärtsilä’s future-proofing software allows PJM Systems to respond more effectively to changes. These metrics directly impact battery system revenue.

Other PJM Storage Systems Wärtsilä PJM Systems

2017 Signal Pattern Change Before After Before After

Performance Score 85-95% 80-90% 97%-98% 93-95%

Availability 92% <90% 100% 100%

Rated Capacity (as percent of original) 100% 50% 100% 66.6%

Downtime for system update after change >1 week 5 minutes

Page 58: Path to 100%...Wärtsilä Energy Business is leading the transition towards a 100% renewable energy future. We understand, design, build and serve optimal power systems for future