Past, Present and Future The Amazing, Changing LAUSD Enrollment Past, Present and Future The Amazing, Changing LAUSD Enrollment LAUSD School Construction Bond Citizens’ Oversight Committee By Facilities Division, Master Planning and Demographics March 2, 2017
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Past, Present and FutureThe Amazing, Changing
LAUSD Enrollment
Past, Present and FutureThe Amazing, Changing
LAUSD EnrollmentLAUSD School Construction Bond Citizens’ Oversight Committee
By Facilities Division, Master Planning and Demographics
March 2, 2017
March 2, 2017
More Than Just Numbers
� Enrollment history � Dynamics of enrollment change� Projecting enrollment� Enrollment forecasts� Assessment of enrollment-impacted schools� Looking forward
March 2, 2017
K-12 ENROLLMENT1964-65 TO 2016-17
� Post WWII housing and baby boom > growth to 1968
� Growth in outer suburbs, Sylmar Earthquake, and concerns over forced desegregation > decline from 1968 to 1980
� Baby boom echo and post Prop 13 new housing > growth 1980 to 2002� Immigration reform > plateau 1986
and 1987� Civil unrest and Northridge
Earthquake > plateau 1992 thru 1994
� Decline in births began 1990, K enrollment peaked in 1996
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
March 2, 2017
PRIVATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT1983-84 TO 2015-16
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
� Increases/decreases similar to LAUSD’s � Declining market share within LAUSD
Source: California Department of Education, private school affidavits
� 529 schools in 2003; 426 schools in 2015
ALL SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT WITHIN LAUSD BOUNDARY
March 2, 2017
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,00020
00-0
1
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
Private SchoolsIndependent Charter SchoolsTraditional LAUSD and Affiliated Charter SchoolsCombined Total For Public Schools
March 2, 2017
DYNAMICS OF CHANGE� Incoming group
� Births in general population� Kindergarten in enrollment
� Outgoing group� Deaths in general population� 12th grade/graduates in enrollment
� Incoming minus Outgoing = Natural Increase
� Fluctuation in core group = Net Change� Difference of in/out migration in general population� Grade to grade retention in enrollment
� Natural Increase + Net Change = Overall Change
March 2, 2017
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS: ANALYSIS AND ASSUMPTIONS
� Births in LAUSD and LA County� Used to develop forecasts for Kindergarten and 1st Grade
enrollment� Cohort Survival Rates
� Statistics showing the percentage of students who progress from one grade to another within LAUSD
� Factors considered in projection modeling� Migration and immigration� New housing development� Ethnic shifts� Health of the economy
March 2, 2017
BIRTHS IN LA COUNTY
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,00019
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
23
Sources: Actual births thru 2014, CA Dept. of Health Services, Ctr. for Health Statistics. Projected births: CA Dept of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.
Overall K-8 Enrollment Change
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
March 2, 2017
K-8 Enrollment Change by Grade
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
March 2, 2017
Enrollment Change by Grade
K12345678
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,00019
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
13
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
March 2, 2017
March 2, 2017
COHORT SURVIVAL RATES1 YEAR CHANGE
GRADES 1-11 TO 2-12
� Cohort Survival – the rate at which a defined group continues over time
� Graph shows a global rate for students that continued from one year to the next
� Ups and downs of rate mirror changes seen in enrollment graph
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
March 2, 2017
COHORT SURVIVAL RATES1 YEAR CHANGE
GRADES 8-11 TO 9-12
� Graph shows the rate at which 8th to 11th grade students continued in the following year as 9th to 12th
grade students� Changes in this rate are a
reflection of changes in drop-out and migration trends
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
March 2, 2017
COHORT SURVIVAL RATES4 YEAR CHANGE
GRADES 5-8 TO 9-12
� Graph shows the rate at which 5th to 8th grade students continued to be enrollment as 9th to 12th
grade students 4 years later� Changes in this rate are a
reflection of changes in drop-out rate, population motility, and timely fulfillment of grade level credits
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
March 2, 2017
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
� Low, High, Selected -based on different assumptions applied to each grade’s cohort rate
� Selected projection - likely outcome within a Low to High range
� Declining enrollment trend reversal expected� Low - 2025� High – 2019� Selected - 2022
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
LOW HIGH SELECTED
March 2, 2017
ACCURACY OF SHORT TERM K-12 PROJECTIONS
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
1998to
1999
1999to
2000
2000to
2001
2001to
2002
2002to
2003
2003to
2004
2004to
2005
2005to
2006
2006to
2007
2007to
2008
2008to
2009
2009to
2010
2010to
2011
2011to
2012
2012to
2013
2013to
2014
2014to
2015
2015to
2016
INVOLUNTARY BUSING AND MULTI-TRACK
Schools withInvoluntary Busing
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
Schools withMulti-track Calendar
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
March 2, 2017
EVALUATION OF ENROLLMENT IMPACTED SCHOOLS
� Primary goal – accommodate resident students and avoid involuntary busing
� Assess cause for growth – resident vs non-resident� Review classroom utilization and identify
reasonable adjustments� Control/reduce non-resident enrollment as possible� Analyze resident enrollment trends� Review options for boundary changes with adjacent
school(s)
March 2, 2017
Looking Forward�Sustainment of promise of single-
track, neighborhood schools �Modernization planning will include
assessment of schools’ abilities to meet enrollment demands
March 2, 2017
March 2, 2017
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
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