Past and Future Climate Simulation Lecture 3 – GCMs: parameterisations (1) From last time – discretising the advection equation (2) Parameterisations: clouds/precip, land surface, dust, the oceans. (3) Implementation: boundary conditions, initial conditions. (4) Model output and model-data comparison (5) Experimental Design (6) Model tuning
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Past and Future Climate Simulation Lecture 3 – GCMs: parameterisations (1) From last time – discretising the advection equation (2) Parameterisations:
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Past and Future Climate Simulation
Lecture 3 – GCMs: parameterisations
(1) From last time – discretising the advection equation
(2) Parameterisations: clouds/precip, land surface, dust, the oceans.
Simulate just the uppermost approx 50m of the ocean (homogeneous slab of water).
Typically, atmosphere calculates the surface energy fluxes for each gridbox (net-solar, net-infrared, sensible, latent heats). The sum will not be zero; this is the net energy flux at the surface. If it is positive, the ocean absorbs this and warms up appropriately. If it is negative the ocean will cool down.
Need to parameterise ocean heat transport! Therefore no good for time periods/climates very different from modern.
Boundary Conditions: Prescribed (by the user) fields. e.g. land- sea mask.
The model can not change these.
May be time-varying (e.g.SST).
Initial Conditions: Fields used for initialising the model.
After first timestep, model calculates. e.g. surface temperature
Land-sea mask
Boundary conditions
Orography
Sub-gridscale orography
Bathymetry
Surface albedo (for models not predicting vegetation)
Sea surface temperatures (for models without an ocean)
Incoming solar radiation
Greenhouse gases, aerosols
Initial conditions
Surface Temperature Pressure in mid-atmosphere
Cloud cover Soil moisture
+ for ocean: temp,salinity,u,v,seaice
(4) Model output and model-data comparison
Produce a ‘climatology’
Model-data comparison…
Surface Temperature: observations
Surface Temperature: HadCM3
How good are GCMs?(1) temperature
Precipitation: observations
Precipitation: HadCM3
Seaice: observations vs models
How good are GCMs?(2) Precip and seaice
How good are GCMs?(3) El Nino
(5) Experimental Design
Key concept: Testing hypotheses.
Typically, a ‘control’ + a number of ‘sensitivity studies’
• Modify a boundary condition…
“If everyone painted their roofs white, could this mitigate against global warming?”
• Modify an internal parameter…
“Can the fact that all models predict too-cold poles in deep-time palaeoclimates be due to the lack of anthropogenic aerosols?”
• Modify an initial condition…
“Was the Sahara bistable in the mid-Holcoene, 6,000 years ago?”
• Change a parameterisation…
“Does poor representation of clouds in models result in poor ENSO simulation?”
• Change the whole model…
“Which is the best model to use for future climate prediction?”
(6) Model Tuning
We know that internal model parameters affect the control climate produced by a model…often these are not well constrained by data.
Therefore we can legitimately ‘tune’ the model towards observations of modern climate by ‘tweaking’ these parameters…
For a small number of parameters, we can cover ‘parameter space’ well…but….N=Ax , where N is number of simulations, A is how well we sample the parameter space, and x is the number of parameters….soon become unmanageable.
So, various approaches, including random sampling…..
And ‘latin hypercube’ sampling…..
Skill score generated, and then experiments ranked...