Participation in full-time higher education 1996- 2010: a home international perspective Linda Croxford and David Raffe University of Edinburgh Changing.

Participation in full-time higher education

1996-2010: a ‘home international’

perspective

Linda Croxford and David RaffeUniversity of Edinburgh

Changing Inequalities and Access to a Differentiated HE SystemSeminar at the University of Edinburgh, 14 June 2013

Participation in full-time higher education

1996-2010: a ‘home international’ perspective

Widening participation (WP)• As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities

succeeded in entering HE?Home-international differences and devolution• Do trends in participation differ across the UK?• Are these associated with differences in tuition fees following

devolution?Cross-border flows• Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)?Success rates• How “fair” is the admissions process?

Widening participation (WP)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 2000 2004 2006 2010

% o

f ent

rant

s

Have disadvantaged groups increased representation? Percent of entrants (UK-domiciled under-21) who were from professional &

managerial, working class and ethnic minority by cohort

Professional & managerial

Working class

Ethnic minority

As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE?

• This was a period of expansion in UK HE: the number of UK-domiciled entrants rose by 53%

• The proportion of ethnic minority entrants increased

• The social class composition of entrants did not change much over the period

Home-international differences and devolution

Devolution: tuition fees

• 1998 an up-front annual fee of £1,000 was introduced across the UK

• 2000 – Scotland replaced fees by a smaller ‘graduate endowment’ (deferred)

• 2006 –England & N Ireland increased fees to £3000 (deferred) - accompanied by ‘fair access’ measures.

• 2007 –Wales - increased fee to £3000, but offset for Welsh students by extra student grant

• 2007 –Scotland- graduate endowment abolished• 2010 – Wales –extra student grant abolished

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010

Have tuition fees influenced inequalities?Intermediate and working class as percent of under-21 entrants to HE, by

country of domicile and cohort

N Ireland

Wales

England

Scotland

1998

All countries

£1000up-front

tuition fee

2000Scotlanddeferred

endowment

2007Wales:

deferredfees

increased to £3000 -

grant

Scotland:endow-

ment abolished

2006England &

NI: fees deferred & increased to £3000

2010

Wales: grant

abolished

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010

Are there different trends across the UK?Ethnic minorities as percent of entrants to HE, by location of domicile and

cohort

London

rest of England

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Are there different trends in participation across the UK?

• Working class-participation is highest in Northern Ireland and lowest in Scotland

• The introduction of fees did not reduce working-class access to HE – and in Scotland their abolition did not increase it.

• Ethnic minority participation has increased most in London and (to a lesser extent) in the rest of England

Cross-border flows

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010

Cross-border flows?Percent of entrants going to an HE institution in another country (or region) by

domicile

England (Region)

Wales

Northern Ireland

Scotland

England (Country)

Cross-border flows

• Declining proportion of UK students studying in another home country (home-country trend more than home-region trend)

• English and Scottish-domiciled students are least likely to enter RUK institutions

• Even in 2010 around one third of new students from Wales and N Ireland studied outside their home country

• The outflow of students from Wales was matched by an even larger inflow from the rest of the UK

• Most cross-border flows either by English students or to English institutions

• Decline in flow of N Ireland students to Scotland – but flow to English HEIs remained steady

Factors associated with RUK applications in 2010

England Wales NI Scotland

Male + + -

Ethnic minority - + + +

High social class + + + +

Low social class - - - -

High qualifications + + + +

Low qualifications - -

[Chosen subject]

Wales: social impact of fee differentials

Date 2004 2006 2008 2010Fee differential NO YES YES NOWorking class as percent of all applicants 24 26 28 27

Percent applied to non-Welsh institutions:

% of middle class 80 75 71 76 % of working class 69 61 57 65

Percent entered non-Welsh institutions:

% of middle class 49 41 38 43 % of working class 35 29 28 30

Working class as % of all entrants 24 25 27 26

Working class as % of all entrants to Welsh institutions 28 29 30 30

Working class as % of all entrants to non-Welsh institutions 18 19 21 19

Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)?

• Those applying and entering RUK were most likely to be well-qualified middle-class students seeking places at Russell Group universities

• But many less-qualified students from N Ireland (and Wales) go to post-92 universities in England

• Ethnic minority students from Scotland, N Ireland and Wales more likely to go to England to study

• But ethnic minority students from England more likely to remain in England

• Fee differentials for Welsh students in 2006-8 did not reduce working-class participation

Success rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010

Success rates of English-domiciled applicants Percent of applicants entering an HEI by social class and ethnicity

Professional & managerial

Intermediate & working class

Visible ethnic minority

Fair admissions? (results of statistical models of entry to any HE institution)

1. Prior qualifications are main predictor of success2. Applicants from managerial & professional classes had

higher success rates – even after controlling for prior qualifications

3. Ethnic minorities more successful than white applicants4. Applicants from independent schools less successful –

and from FE Colleges more successful5. Effects of 3 and 4 above explained by selectivity of

institutions applied to (analysis of entry to pre-1992 institutions shows opposite effects)

Home country differences in success rates (ie interactions)

• None of the social class effects differed between home countries

• Scottish applicants from independent schools were more likely to gain an HEI place (but no difference in entry to pre-1992 university)

• N Irish and Scottish applicants from FE Colleges were more likely to gain an HEI place

• Ethnic minority students from Scotland were less likely to gain an HEI place

Finally

This study shows:• The persistence of social inequalities in

participation in HE;• Similarity in inequalities between home

countries – but compositional differences;• No effect on inequalities of country differences

in tuition fees;• Slight decline in cross-border flows – but a

complex pattern