Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation is associated with worse clinical outcomes than persistent/ permanent atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction JJV McMurray 1 , UM Mogensen 1,2 , PS Jhund 1 , WT Abraham 3 , AS Desai 4 , K Dickstein 5 , M Packer 6 , JL Rouleau 7 , SD Solomon 4 , K Swedberg 8 , MR Zile 9 , Lars Køber 2 for the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE investigators. 1 University of Glasgow, UK; 2 Copenhagen University Hospital, Denmark; 3 Ohio State University, USA; 4 Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA; 5 Stavanger University Hospital, Norway; 6 Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, USA 7 Université de Montréal, Canada; 8 University of Gothenburg, Sweden; 9 Medical University of South Carolina, USA.
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Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation is associated with worse clinical outcomes than persistent/ permanent atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction
JJV McMurray1, UM Mogensen1,2, PS Jhund1, WT Abraham3, AS Desai4, K
Dickstein5, M Packer6, JL Rouleau7, SD Solomon4, K Swedberg8, MR Zile9,
Lars Køber2 for the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE investigators.1University of Glasgow, UK; 2Copenhagen University Hospital, Denmark; 3Ohio State
University, USA; 4Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA; 5Stavanger
University Hospital, Norway; 6Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, USA 7Université de Montréal, Canada; 8University of Gothenburg, Sweden; 9Medical
University of South Carolina, USA.
Background and introduction
• There is controversy about whether AF is an independent prognostic factor
in HFrEF. In existing studies:
• AF was inconsistently defined, with some using medical history and others using the
baseline ECG to identify AF.
• Type of AF at baseline (paroxysmal versus persistent/permanent) has not been
related to outcome. Similarly, the relationship between incident AF and outcomes
has rarely been examined.
• The completeness of clinical data available for adjustment of outcomes has
varied between studies
• Including, medical history, comorbidity and physiological and laboratory
measurements.
• Notably, no study in chronic HFrEF included measurement of natriuretic peptides, the
most powerful independent predictor of outcomes.
Methods (1)
• The databases of the Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to
Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure trial
(PARADIGM-HF NCT01035255) and the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes
in Patients with Heart Failure trial (ATMOSPHERE NCT00853658), the two
most recent and largest global multicenter randomized trials in patients with
HFrEF, were pooled.
• The trials had an almost identical design and detailed clinical data, plasma NT
proBNP and a 12 lead ECG were recorded/measured at baseline.
• Investigators asked about history of AF (and if yes, whether the AF was
paroxysmal or persistent/permanent) and whether or not the baseline ECG
showed AF.
• Cardiovascular events during follow-up, including new-onset AF, were
adjudicated by the same endpoint committee.
Methods (2)
• The primary outcome of both trials was a composite of CV death or HF
hospitalization. We investigated the association between AF and risk of the
primary outcome, each of its components, all-cause mortality, and stroke.
• The cumulative incidence functions for outcomes of interest were compared
according to AF status at randomization.
• HR with 95% CI for outcomes according to type of AF were calculated using
Cox proportional hazard models using no AF as reference. To assess the
prognostic significance of new-onset AF during follow-up, AF was included
as a time-dependent variable.
• Final models included adjustment for randomized treatment and baseline