Panut Manoonvoravong Bureau of research development and hydrology Department of water resources.

Panut ManoonvoravongBureau of research development and hydrologyDepartment of water resources

This model was funded by World Bank in May 2009 for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to assist the Thai Government to develop policy tools for adapting to climate change impacts on the

water and natural resources of the Mekong River Basin

building local knowledge and capacity on climate change

The pilot area for the HAE model development project was set in Kong-Chi-Mun the Northeast of Thailand basins (the sub-basin areas of lower Mekong tributaries).

The models are required to assess the impact of climate change on:a) the hydrologic regime,b) water usage,c) agricultural production andd) socio-economic conditions.

TopographyTopography

The ECHAM climate model has been developed from the ECMWF atmospheric

model. It provided a future climate scenario data of a spatial resolution approximates to about 2.8º longitude/latitude and the time-step of 24 minutes.The model condition based on the emission scenario of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.

To provide the future climate scenario data based on ECHAM4 GCM’s future Climate data and the emission scenarios of IPCC SRES A2 & B2.

6 variables used in the HAE model are precipitation (mm) max & min temperature (Degree Celsius) solar radiation (MJ/m2) Relative humidity Wind speed (m/s)

Future climate projection using PRECIS model

Precipitation PRECIS vs. Observation Future Precipitation Change A2 & B2

Other Meteorological Parameters PRECIS vs. Observation Future Change A2 & B2

Evapotranspiration

Baseline PRECIS data

Observation in term of climatology

To find the bias adjustment coefficient for PRECIS data

com

pari

son

Bias adjusted climate scenario data

PRECIS’ baseline & future climate scenario data

HAE model

To apply for the future climate scenario data

13 observation stations of TMD were selected to compare with PRECIS simulation

PRECIS

ObservedTo Interpolate into each grid

an approach in which variable bias adjustment was applied to the PRECIS data depending upon the ranking of the PRECIS simulated data amongst all rain-day events in a particular month

0.2 Grid

The approach developed was based on monthly corrections to PRECIS data determined from the differences between the mean monthly observed and PRECIS simulated data at the 13 TMD stations.

By using adjusted PRECIS meteorological data, Daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the FAO Penman method. Data were calculated on each of the PRECIS grids.

Summary of future climate change in Kong-Chi-Mun basin

Summary of future climate scenarios

(Increase) No change (Decrease)

SWAT ModelTime Series Routed Mean Daily Flows at Selected Locations

Associated Rating Curve

Associated Flood Depth

Flood Depth-Area TableFor Location

Associated Flood Area and Duration

Annual Loss Calculations

Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop modelData requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model

2.1 Weather data

2.2 Soil data

2.3 Crops and crop management practices

Time Frame

Baseline (BS,

1980-2009)

Future A2 (2050s,

2040-2069)

Future B2 (2050s,

2040-2069)

Data requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop modelData requirement to estimate yield and crop water uses by DSSAT crop model

2.1 Weather data

2.2 Soil data

2.3 Crops and crop management practices

Figure 2.5 Soil group in the basinsFigure 2.5 Soil group in the basins

Agriculture

Flood Damage Hydropower

Time SeriesNet Production Values

Time SeriesFlood DamagesDirect/Indirect

Time SeriesNet Production Values

Present Value ofProduction

Annual Damages Present Value ofProduction

Present Value Adaptation and Mitigation Costs

Benefit : Cost Ratios of Adaptation and Mitigation Measures

Revised Present Value Production and Damages with Mitigation