Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003 Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug.

Panel Discussion on CorporateVolunteerism

Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003

Nick Keener, CCM

Director, Meteorology

2009 Summer AMS Community MeetingAug 10-13th, 2009

Picture

Picture

2

DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.

Serves customers in 5 states: North and South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

3.9 million retail electric customers

500,000 retail gas customers

47,000 square miles of Service Area

~ 37,000 MW Generation in the US and 4,000 MW of Generation in Latin America

3

Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities Duke Energy North America Power Generation Facilities

4

Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas:

Weather Forecasts, Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas:

Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization

Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources

Hourly pricing

Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation

Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories

Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections

Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the regulated and non-regulated generation

Support Emergency Management for Storm Response

5

Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimizationLoad Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization

Hourly forecasts of temperatures, dew points, wind speed and cloud cover for input into load forecast models

Real-time surface observations

Precipitation projections

Forecasts developed from NCEP models, MOS, and local forecast methods developed internally

6

Optimization of Hydro Electric ResourcesOptimization of Hydro Electric Resources

Twice daily QPF forecasts that are input into our Hydro Management System (1-3 days)

Medium range QPF projections for lake/river management (4 to 7 days)

Real-time QPE for inflow estimates

Seasonal forecasts for longer range planning and resource availability

7

Weather Risk Analysis for load obligationWeather Risk Analysis for load obligation

Daily Weather forecast Scenario development to capture uncertainty and project a range of possible loads out to 3 days

Forecasts of convection, timing and coverage for possible load shedding

Temperature/wind forecasts for transmission line ratings and lake/river temperature thermal restrictions

8

Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventoriesMonthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories

Monthly/seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are used for predicting coal inventories, gas storage numbers, and hydro availability

Seasonal forecasts of HDD and CDD are used to estimate revenue projections

9

Support trading and marketing of energySupport trading and marketing of energy

Short and medium range forecasts are used for asset management (Day 1 through 5)

Daily market analysis based on region and national weather forecast.

Full suite of forecast projections for 35 cites in the 1 – 15 day range

10

Support Emergency Management for Storm ResponseSupport Emergency Management for Storm Response

11

Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations

Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations

12

Future weather forecast needs?Future weather forecast needs?

Implementation of a proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) which would provide probabilistic forecast information.

Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short and long range models and make them available through NOAA Port.

Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3 by removing climatology as a predictor.

Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast

13

Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions:Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions:

System load management

System load modeling

Resource decisions related to on-going severe weather events

Inflow calculations for hydroelectric operations

Emergency response decisions related to non-routine releases

14

Future Mesonet Needs?Future Mesonet Needs?

Increased spatial resolution of surface observations

Real-time SFC data available from a national network via NOAA Port every 15 minutes

Atmospheric boundary layer measurements using remote sensing systems for characterizing the PBL in real-time.

Recommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC ReportRecommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC Report

The stakeholders should commission an independent team of social and physical scientists to conduct end-user assessment for selected sectors. The assessment…………………added societal impact and value.

Themes – Weather prediction

and climate modeling

Support new applications in physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in expanding the user base

Integrated feedback mechanisms

15

Main driver in the energy sectorMain driver in the energy sector

Technology?

16

Q&AQ&A